Remote Sensing Data Application, Data Reanalysis and Advances for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Models

HIRAS-II is the hyperspectral detector carried on FengYun-3E which is the world’s first meteorological satellite in dawn–dusk orbit. It fills the observation gaps during the dawn and dusk periods of polar orbit meteorological satellites, enabling a 100% global data coverage and assimilation of polar orbit satellite data within each 6 h window for numerical weather forecasting models. With 3053 vertical detection channels, it provides high-resolution vertical temperature and humidity information, thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of the global medium-range weather prediction models. This study assimilated data from 56 CO₂ channels of FY-3E HIRAS into the CMA-GFS 4DVAR system. Two sets of experiments, FY3EHIRAS and CTRL, were designed, conducting a one-month cycle assimilation test to evaluate the impact of assimilating FY-3E HIRAS data on CMA-GFS analysis and forecasting. Using the ECMWF reanalysis data ERA5 as a reference, the study demonstrated that after assimilating data from FY-3E HIRAS’s 56 CO₂ channels, there was a certain extent of improvement in the temperature field at almost all model levels. The RMSE notably reduced in the southern hemisphere’s temperature analysis field near the surface and at 500 hPa by 3.5% and 2%, respectively. The most significant improvement in the entire temperature analysis field was observed in the tropical region, followed by the southern and then the northern hemisphere. Additionally, there was a reduction in RMSE for the height and wind fields, showing considerable improvement compared to the CTRL experiment. Overall, assimilating the FY-3E HIRAS data led to positive improvements in the forecasting skills for temperature, wind fields, and height fields in both the southern and northern hemispheres. The forecasting effectiveness was slightly lower in the tropical region but displayed an overall neutral-to-positive effect. Full article

Cloud detection is an essential preprocessing step when using satellite-borne infrared hyperspectral sounders for data assimilation and atmospheric retrieval. In this study, we propose a cloud detection algorithm based solely on the sensitivity and detection characteristics of the FY-4A Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS), rather than relying on other instruments. The algorithm consists of four steps: (1) combining observed radiation and clear radiance data simulated by the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) to identify clear fields of view (FOVs); (2) determining the number of clouds within adjacent 2 × 2 FOVs via a principal component analysis of observed radiation; (3) identifying whether there are large observed radiance differences between adjacent 2 × 2 FOVs to determine the mixture of clear skies and clouds; and (4) assigning adjacent 2 × 2 FOVs as a cloud cluster following the three steps above to select an appropriate classification threshold. The classification results within each cloud detection cluster were divided into the following categories: clear, partly cloudy, or overcast. The proposed cloud detection algorithm was tested using one month of GIIRS observations from May 2022 in this study. The cloud detection and classification results were compared with the FY-4A Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI)’s operational cloud mask products to evaluate their performance. The results showed that the algorithm’s performance is significantly influenced by the surface type. Among all-day observations, the highest recognition performance was achieved over the ocean, followed by land surfaces, with the lowest performance observed over deep inland water. The proposed algorithm demonstrated better clear sky recognition during the nighttime for ocean and land surfaces, while its performance was higher for partly cloudy and overcast conditions during the day. However, for inland water surfaces, the algorithm consistently exhibited a lower cloud recognition performance during both the day and night. Moreover, in contrast to the GIIRS’s Level 2 cloud mask (CLM) product, the proposed algorithm was able to identify partly cloudy conditions. The algorithm’s classification results departed slightly from those of the AGRI’s cloud mask product in areas with clear sky/cloud boundaries and minimal convective cloud coverage; this was attributed to the misclassification of clear sky as partly cloudy under a low-resolution situation. AGRI’s CLM products, temporally and spatially collocated to the GIIRS FOV, served as the reference value. The proportion of FOVs consistently classified as partly cloudy to the total number of partly cloudy FOVs was 40.6%. In comparison with the GIIRS’s L2 product, the proposed algorithm improved the identification performance by around 10%. Full article

Profile measurements play a crucial role in operational weather forecasting across diverse scales and latitudes. However, assimilating tropospheric wind and temperature profiles remains a challenging endeavor. This study assesses the influence of profile measurements on numerical weather prediction (NWP) using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the parallel data assimilation framework (PDAF) system. Utilizing the local error-subspace transform Kalman filter (LESTKF), observational temperature and wind profiles generated by WRF are assimilated into an idealized tropical cyclone. The coupled WRF-PDAF system is adopted to carry out the twin experiments, which employ varying profile densities and localization distances. The results reveal that high-resolution observations yield significant forecast improvements compared to coarser-resolution data. A cost-effective balance between observation density and benefit is further explored through the idealized tropical cyclone case. According to diminishing marginal utility and increasing marginal costs, the optimal observation densities for U and V are found around 26–27%. This may be useful information to the meteorological agencies and researchers. Full article

Fengyun-4B (FY-4B) is the first operational satellite from China’s latest generation of geostationary meteorological satellites. It is equipped with the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS), which is able to obtain highly accurate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles through hyperspectral detection in long- and mid-wave infrared spectral bands. In this study, the accuracy of the FY-4B/GIIRS temperature and humidity profile retrievals over two months is evaluated using radiosonde observations and ERA5 reanalysis data. We go a step further to investigate the impact of the satellite retrievals on assimilation and forecasts for Typhoons Chaba and Ma-on in 2022. Results reveal that the root-mean-square difference (RMSD) for the FY-4B/GIIRS temperature and humidity profile retrievals were within 1 K and 1.5 g/kg, respectively, demonstrating high overall accuracy. Moreover, assimilating temperature and humidity profiles from FY-4B/GIIRS positively impacts model analysis and prediction, improving typhoon track and intensity forecasts. Additionally, improvements have been discovered in predicting precipitation, particularly with high-magnitude rainfall events. Full article

Ground-based microwave radiometer (GMWR) data with high spatial and temporal resolution can improve the accuracy of weather forecasts when effectively assimilated into numerical weather prediction. Nowadays, the major method to assimilate these data is via indirect assimilation by assimilating the retrieved profiles, which introduces large retrieval errors and cannot easily be represented by an error covariance matrix. Direct assimilation, on the other hand, can avoid this issue. In this study, the ground-based version of the Radiative Transfer for the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (RTTOV-gb) was selected as the observation operator, and a direct assimilation module for GMWR radiance data was established in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Data Assimilation (WRFDA). Then, this direct assimilation module was applied to assimilate GMWR data. The results were compared to the indirect assimilation experiment and demonstrated that direct assimilation can more effectively improve the model’s initial fields in terms of temperature and humidity than indirect assimilation while avoiding the influence of retrieval errors. In addition, direct assimilation performed better in the precipitation forecast than indirect assimilation, making the main precipitation center closer to the observation. In particular, the improvement in the precipitation forecast with a threshold of 60 mm/6 h was obvious, and the corresponding TS score was significantly enhanced. Full article

In this study, the impact of assimilating MWHS2 radiance data under different background conditions on the analyses and deterministic prediction of the Super Typhoon Muifa case, which hit China in 2022, was explored. The fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data and the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used as the background fields. To assimilate the Microwave Humidity Sounder II (MWHS2) radiance data into the numerical simulation experiments, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system were employed. The results show that after the data assimilation, the standard deviation and root-mean-square error of the analysis significantly decrease relative to the observation, indicating the effectiveness of the assimilation process with both background fields. In the MWHS_GFS experiment, a subtropical high-pressure deviation to the east is observed around the typhoon, resulting in its northeast movement. In the differential field of the MWHS_ERA experiment, negative sea-level pressure differences around the typhoon are observed, which increases its intensity. In the deterministic predictions, assimilating the FY3D MWHS2 radiance data reduces the typhoon track error in the MWHS_GFS experiment and the typhoon intensity error in the MWHS_ERA experiment. In addition, it is found that the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and the Radiative Transfer for Tovs (RTTOV) model show similar performance in assimilating MWHS2 radiance data for this typhoon case. It seems that the data assimilation experiment with the CRTM significantly reduces the typhoon track error than the experiment with the RTTOV model does, while the intensity error of both experiments is rather comparable. Full article

The experimental rapid-cycling Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) in the convection-allowing ensemble-based Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is used to assimilate all-sky infrared radiance observations from the GOES-16 7.3 μm water vapor channel in combination with radar wind and reflectivity observations to improve the analysis and subsequent forecast of severe thunderstorms (which occurred in Oklahoma on 2 May 2018). The method for radiance data assimilation is based primarily on the version used in WoFS. In addition, the methods for adaptive observation error inflation and background error inflation and the method of time-expanded sampling are also implemented in two groups of experiments to test their effectiveness and examine the impacts of radar observations and all-sky radiance observations on ensemble analyses and predictions of severe thunderstorms. Radar reflectivity observations and brightness temperature observations from the GOES-16 6.9 μm mid-level troposphere water vapor channel and 11.2 μm longwave window channel are used to evaluate the assimilation statistics and verify the forecasts in each experiment. The primary findings from the two groups of experiments are summarized: (i) Assimilating radar observations improves the overall (heavy) precipitation forecast up to 5 (4) h, according to the improved composite reflectivity forecast skill scores. (ii) Assimilating all-sky water vapor infrared radiance observations from GOES-16 in addition to radar observations improves the brightness temperature assimilation statistics and subsequent cloud cover forecast up to 6 h, but the improvements are not significantly affected by the adaptive observation and background error inflations. (iii) Time-expanded sampling can not only reduce the computational cost substantially but also slightly improve the forecast. Full article

This study explores the impact of assimilating radar radial velocity (RV) on the forecast of Super Typhoon Lekima (2019) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system with different background error length scales. The results of two single observation tests show that the smaller background error length scale is able to constrain the spread of radar observation information within a relatively reasonable range compared with the larger length scale. During the five data assimilation cycles, the position and structure of the near-land typhoon are found to be significantly affected by the setting of the background error length scale. With a reduced length scale, the WRF-3DVAR system could effectively assimilate the radar RV to produce more accurate analyses, resulting in an enhanced typhoon vortex with a dynamic and thermal balance. In the forecast fields, the experiment with a smaller length scale not only reduces the averaged track error for the 24-h forecasts to less than 20 km, but it also more accurately captures the evolutions of the typhoon vortex and rainband during typhoon landing. In addition, the spatial distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation are corrected. For the 24-h quantitative precipitation forecasts, the equitable threat scores of the experiment with a reduced length scale are greater than 0.4 for the threshold from 1 to 100 mm and not less than 0.2 until the threshold increases to 240 mm. The enhanced prediction performances are probably due to the improved TC analysis. Full article