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Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact

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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Environmental Sustainability and Applications".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (29 February 2020) | Viewed by 49034

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Special Issue Editor

Dr. Isabel Rosa

E-Mail Website1 Website2
Guest Editor

School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2DG, UK
Interests: tropical deforestation; land use and land cover change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Land use change is a major driver of biodiversity loss, significantly contributing to climate change and greatly impacting human well-being. Land use is now central to most global policy bodies, demonstrated by the special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on land use and terrestrial ecosystems, as well as the land degradation and restoration thematic assessment by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Therefore, being able to accurately model land use change is critical to improving our current understanding of how humans shape the natural world, its environmental and societal consequences, and how it might affect the future of our planet. Studies in this Special Issue are expected to cover several fields, as land use is an essential source of information used in a wide range of research applications: species distribution modelling, risk assessments (e.g., floods, fire), ecosystem services change, hydrological modelling, epidemiological studies (e.g., spread of infectious diseases), landscape planning (e.g., new dams or roads), agricultural and forestry productivity estimates (e.g., yields), among others. We welcome submissions targeting land use modelling either from a theoretical or applied research perspective, covering different methodologies and scales of analysis.

Dr. Isabel Rosa
Guest Editor

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Keywords

land use change
land use systems
environmental modeling
predictive modeling
mechanistic modeling
model calibration and validation
scaling predictions
socio-ecological feedbacks
data fusion
ecological forecasting and backcasting

Published Papers (11 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 4569 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Quantifying the Spatial Association between Land Use Change and Ecosystem Services Value: A Case Study in Xi’an, China

by Yajing Shao, Xuefeng Yuan, Chaoqun Ma, Ruifang Ma and Zhaoxia Ren

Sustainability 2020, 12(11), 4449; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114449 - 30 May 2020

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 2761

Abstract

The impact of land use and land cover (LULC) change on ecosystem services value (ESV) varies in different spatial locations. Although many studies have focused on quantifying the effect of LULC change on ESV, few have considered the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between LULC change and ESV. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between ESV and LULC change from a spatial perspective in Xi’an City. We divide the study area into 10,522 grid cells, based on land cover data from 2000 to 2018, and we identify the spatial-temporal dynamics of LULC change. Next, we employ the Benefits Transfer Method (BTM) to evaluate the ESV, and the ESV is corrected by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model are used to assess the spatial association of LULC change and ESV. The results show that the total ESV loss is 6.57 billion yuan (Chinese yuan), and the loss rate is 12.18%. The distribution of ESV shows an obvious spatial heterogeneity, and the low-value area of ESV expands eastward from the main urban area. More than 50% of total ESV is provided by woodland. From 2000 to 2018, the land use pattern in Xi’an underwent a significant change with the developed land increasing by 64.09%, whereas farmland decreased by 12.49%. Based on the GWR model, the relationship between LULC change and ESV in Xi’an showed a significant negative association and spatial heterogeneity. Our study results provide a new way to effectively identify the relationship between LULC change and ESV, and in turn, to fully understand the ecological trends at the regional scale, laying a foundation for regional sustainable development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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20 pages, 38891 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial Zoning of Cultivated Land in Shandong Province Based on the Trinity of Quantity, Quality and Ecology

by Nan Wang, Jian Zu, Mu Li, Jinyi Zhang and Jinmin Hao

Sustainability 2020, 12(5), 1849; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051849 - 1 Mar 2020

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3493

Abstract

The spatial zoning of cultivated land is a core aspect of territorial spatial planning and an important basis for implementing differentiated cultivated land protection policies. To provide theoretical guidance for the future direction of the protection and utilization of cultivated land in Shandong Province, this paper built a theoretical framework for the spatial zoning of cultivated land based on the trinity of quantity, quality, and ecology and formed an indicator system for the spatial zoning of cultivated land based on these three elements. Based on the analysis and grading results of spatial zoning indicators of cultivated land, hierarchical clustering analysis was performed on 133 county-level administrative units, and then the cultivated land resources of Shandong Province were divided into four types of zones: Key protection zones, comprehensive promotion zones, multifunctional utilization zones, and ecological utilization zones. Future development directions in relation to the protection and utilization of cultivated land in each type of zone were proposed. The results showed that the spatial zoning of cultivated land based on the trinity of quantity, quality, and ecology has important theoretical and practical significance for guiding the protection and utilization of cultivated land in Shandong Province and other regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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13 pages, 1479 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Integration of Boosted Regression Trees and Cellular Automata—Markov Model to Predict the Land Use Spatial Pattern in Hotan Oasis

by Shufang Wang, Xiyun Jiao, Liping Wang, Aimin Gong, Honghui Sang, Mohamed Khaled Salahou and Liudong Zhang

Sustainability 2020, 12(4), 1396; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041396 - 13 Feb 2020

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2453

Abstract

The simulation and prediction of the land use changes is generally carried out by cellular automata—Markov (CA-Markov) model, and the generation of suitable maps collection is subjective in the simulation process. In this study, the CA-Markov model was improved by the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to simulate land use to make the model objectively. The weight of ten driving factors of the land use changes was analyzed in BRT, in order to produce the suitable maps collection. The accuracy of the model was verified. The outcomes represent a match of over 84% between simulated and actual land use in 2015, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.89, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. The land use of Hotan Oasis in 2025 and 2035 were predicted by means of this hybrid model. The area of farmland, built-up land and water body in Hotan Oasis showed an increasing trend, while the area of forestland, grassland and unused land continued to show a decreasing trend in 2025 and 2035. The government needs to formulate measures to improve the utilization rate of water resources to meet the growth of farmland, and need to increase ecological environment protection measures to curb the reduction of grass land and forest land for the ecological health. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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28 pages, 5561 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

by Kristian Näschen, Bernd Diekkrüger, Mariele Evers, Britta Höllermann, Stefanie Steinbach and Frank Thonfeld

Sustainability 2019, 11(24), 7083; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11247083 - 11 Dec 2019

Cited by 63 | Viewed by 8744

Abstract

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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20 pages, 2131 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Optimization of the National Land Space Based on the Coordination of Urban-Agricultural-Ecological Functions in the Karst Areas of Southwest China

by Xiaoqing Zhao, Sinan Li, Junwei Pu, Peipei Miao, Qian Wang and Kun Tan

Sustainability 2019, 11(23), 6752; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236752 - 28 Nov 2019

Cited by 37 | Viewed by 3404

Abstract

National land spatial planning is dominated by urban-agricultural-ecological functions and has become a Chinese national strategic issue. However, the three functional spaces have serious conflicts in the karst areas, causing inconsistencies in regional development and triggering poverty and a more serious situation for the ecological environment. In this study, we used the gray multi-objective dynamic programming model and the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent model to simulate the developmental structures of future land use in the karst areas of Southwest China under a socioeconomic development scenario, an arable land protection scenario and an ecological security scenario. Finally, based on the coordination of the urban-agricultural-ecological functions, we used a functional space classification method to optimize the spatial structures of the national land space for 2035 year and to identify different functional areas. The results showed that the three scenarios with different objectives had differences in the quantities and spatial structures of land use but that the area of forestland was the largest and the area of water was the smallest in each scenario. The optimization of the national land space was divided into seven functional areas—urban space, agricultural space, ecological space, urban-agricultural space, urban-ecological space, agricultural-ecological space and urban-agricultural-ecological space. The ecological space was the largest and the urban-ecological space was the smallest among seven functional areas. The different types of functional spaces had significant differentiation characteristics in the layouts. The urban-agricultural space, urban-ecological space, agricultural-ecological space and urban-agricultural-ecological space can effectively alleviate the impacts of human activities and agricultural production activities in karst areas, promote the improvement of rocky desertification and improve the quality of the regional ecological environment. The results of this research can provide support for decisions about the balanced development of the national land space and the improvement of environmental quality in the karst areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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16 pages, 2238 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Temporal Indices of Landscape Change: A Proposal to Measure Variations in the Conservation Status of Vegetation at Fine Resolution

by Alberto Luis Cantoral, Estrella Alfaro, Raquel Alonso-Redondo and Marta Eva García-González

Sustainability 2019, 11(21), 5887; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11215887 - 23 Oct 2019

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2112

Abstract

The goal of this study was to propose scientific and objective indices capable of measuring the changes that occur in the conservation status of the vegetation of a particular area over a period of time. To this end, phytosociologically-based vegetation cartography at a detailed scale was used, carried out at two different times, and the distance from the climax stage of the territory was calculated for each time. Three temporal indices of landscape change are proposed: Conservation Status Variation Index (ConSVI), Conservation Status Variation Velocity Index (ConSVVe) and Change Ratio (ChanRat). These enable the intensity, velocity, and percentage of change to be measured, and to determine whether this change is progressive or regressive—in other words, whether it is approaching or receding from the climax. To test the proposal, it was applied to a territory in Northwest Spain. The proposed indices are universally applicable to any territory and are the first of their kind to operate at a detailed scale with a phytosociological basis. They also enable an objective measurement to be made of the landscape change that has occurred, meaning that they have immense practical utility in studies of managing and planning territorial resources. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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14 pages, 2558 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Cooling Effect of Paddy on Land Surface Temperature in Cold China Based on MODIS Data: A Case Study in Northern Sanjiang Plain

by Guoming Du, Wenqi Liu, Tao Pan, Haoxuan Yang and Qi Wang

Sustainability 2019, 11(20), 5672; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205672 - 14 Oct 2019

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2646

Abstract

Fast-growing crops have been evolved in North China, accompanied by intense paddy expansion, leading to dramatic impacts on the agricultural environment. Among these environmental issues, the impact of paddy expansion on land surface temperature is still unclear. In the present study, based on Landsat images and MODIS land surface temperature (LST) products, the crop pattern and monthly LST in the northern Sanjiang Plain are obtained. A 1 km scale grid unit is built to investigate the relationship between LST and paddy expansion. The results obtained from the study are as follows. Firstly, for crop patterns, cropland planting is given priority to paddy fields, accompanied by an aggregated pattern, while upland crops present a discrete pattern. Secondly, for LST changes during the growing season, the maximum LST occurs in June, and the lowest values occur in October across the whole region. In addition, the LST of paddy fields is lower compared with that of upland crops for the whole growing season. Thirdly, at the 1 km grid scale, the relationship between monthly LST and paddy field ratio is significantly negative, and better represented by a cubic function rather than a linear fit. Finally, LST decreases with the increased fraction of the rice paddy area more rapidly when rice paddy is aggregated and accounted for by more than 80% of each study grid. The findings of this study are important to guide agricultural production and to better understand the environmental effects of paddy expansion in cold regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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16 pages, 5969 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Relationships between Land Use Land Cover Changes and Surface Temperature over the Lower Himalayan Region

by Siddique Ullah, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Tahir Ali Akbar, Quazi K. Hassan, Ashraf Dewan, Asim Jahangir Khan and Mudassir Khan

Sustainability 2019, 11(19), 5492; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195492 - 3 Oct 2019

Cited by 97 | Viewed by 7828

Abstract

Population growth and population inflow from other regions has caused urbanization which altered land use land cover (LULC) in the lower Himalayan regions of Pakistan. This LULC change increased the land surface temperature (LST) in the region. LULC and LST changes were assessed for the period of 1990–2017 using Landsat data and the support vector machine (SVM) method. A combined cellular automata and artificial neural network (CA-ANN) prediction model was used for simulation of LULC changes for the period of 2032 and 2047 using transition potential matrix obtained from the data years of 2002 and 2017. The accuracy of the CA-ANN model was validated using simulated and classified images of 2017 with correctness value of 70% using validation modules in QGIS. The thermal bands of Landsat images from the years 1990, 2002 and 2017 were used for LST derivation. LST acquired for this period was then modeled for 2032 and 2047 using urban indices (UI) and linear regression analysis. The SVM land cover classification results showed a 5.75% and 4.22% increase in built-up area and bare soil respectively, while vegetation declined by 9.88% during 1990–2017. The results of LST for LULC classes showed that the built-up area had the highest mean LST as compared to other classes. The future projection of LULC and LST showed that the built-up area may increase by 12.48% and 14.65% in 2032 and 2047, respectively, of the total LULC area which was ~11% in 2017. Similarly, the area with temperature above 30 °C could be 44.01% and 58.02% in 2032 and 2047, respectively, of the total study area which was 18.64% in 2017. This study identified major challenges for urban planners to mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. In order to address the UHI in the study area, an urban planner might focus on urban plantation and decentralization of urban areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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21 pages, 3810 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Gaborone Dam Catchment, Botswana, from 1984–2015 Using GIS and Remote Sensing

by Botlhe Matlhodi, Piet K. Kenabatho, Bhagabat P. Parida and Joyce G. Maphanyane

Sustainability 2019, 11(19), 5174; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11195174 - 20 Sep 2019

Cited by 46 | Viewed by 6732

Abstract

Land use land cover (LULC) change is one of the major driving forces of global environmental change in many developing countries. In this study, LULC changes were evaluated in the Gaborone dam catchment in Botswana between 1984 and 2015. The catchment is a major source of water supply to Gaborone city and its surrounding areas. The study employed Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) using Landsat imagery of 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2015. Image classification for each of these imageries was done through supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classifier. Six major LULC categories, cropland, bare land, shrub land, built-up area, tree savanna and water bodies, were identified in the catchment. It was observed that shrub land and tree savanna were the major LULC categories between 1984 and 2005 while shrub land and cropland dominated the catchment area in 2015. The rates of change were generally faster in the 1995–2005 and 2005–2015 periods. For these periods, built-up areas increased by 59.8 km² (108.3%) and 113.2 km² (98.5%), respectively, while bare land increased by 50.3 km² (161.1%) and 99.1 km² (121.5%). However, in the overall period between 1984 and 2015, significant losses were observed for shrub land, 763 km² (29.4%) and tree savanna, 674 km² (71.3%). The results suggest the need to closely monitor LULC changes at a catchment scale to facilitate water resource management and to maintain a sustainable environment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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19 pages, 4707 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Impacts of Land Use/Cover Change and Rainfall Change on Surface Runoff in China

by Fazhi Li, Jingqiu Chen, Yaoze Liu, Peng Xu, Hua Sun, Bernard A. Engel and Shizhong Wang

Sustainability 2019, 11(13), 3535; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133535 - 27 Jun 2019

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3746

Abstract

Assessment of the impacts of land use/cover change (LUCC) and rainfall change on surface runoff depth can help provide an understanding of the temporal trend of variation of surface runoff and assist in urban construction planning. This study evaluated the impacts of LUCC and rainfall change on surface runoff depth by adopting the well-known Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and the widely used Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) model. National hydrologic soil group map of China was generated based on a conversion from soil texture classification system. The CN values were adjusted based on the land use/cover types and soil properties in China. The L-THIA model was configured by using the adjusted CN values and then applied nationally in China. Results show that nationwide rainfall changes and LUCC from 2005 to 2010 had little impact on the distribution of surface runoff, and the high values of runoff depth were mainly located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Nationally, the average annual runoff depths in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 78 mm, 83 mm and 90 mm, respectively. For the 2015 land use data, rainfall change caused the variation of surface runoff depth ranging from −203 mm to 476 mm in different regions. LUCC from 2005 to 2015 did not cause obvious change of surface runoff depth, but expansion of developed land led to runoff depth increases ranging from 0 mm to 570 mm and 0 mm to 742 mm from 2005 to 2010 and 2010 to 2015, respectively. Potential solutions to urban land use change and surface runoff control were also analyzed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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15 pages, 2195 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China

by Cheng Duan, Peili Shi, Minghua Song, Xianzhou Zhang, Ning Zong and Caiping Zhou

Sustainability 2019, 11(6), 1788; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061788 - 25 Mar 2019

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 4303

Abstract

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is an important driver of ecosystem function and services. Thus, LUCC analysis may lay foundation for landscape planning, conservation and management. It is especially true for alpine landscapes, which are more susceptible to climate changes and human activities. However, the information on LUCC in sacred landscape is limited, which will hinder the landscape conservation and development. We chose Kailash Sacred Landscape in China (KSL-China) to investigate the patterns and dynamics of LUCC and the driving forces using remote sensing data and meteorological data from 1990 to 2008. A supervised classification of land use and land cover was established based on field survey. Rangelands presented marked fluctuations due to climatic warming and its induced drought, for example, dramatic decreases were found in high- and medium-cover rangelands over the period 2000–2008. And recession of most glaciers was also observed in the study period. Instead, an increase of anthropogenic activities accelerated intensive alteration of land use, such as conversion of cropland to built-up land. We found that the change of vegetation cover was positively correlated with growing season precipitation (GSP). In addition, vegetation cover was substantially reduced along the pilgrimage routes particularly within 5 km of the routes. The findings of the study suggest that climatic warming and human disturbance are interacted to cause remarkable LUCC. Tourism development was responsible land use change in urban and pilgrimage routes. This study has important implications for landscape conservation and ecosystem management. The reduction of rangeland cover may decrease the rangeland quality and pose pressure for the carrying capacity of rangelands in the KSL-China. With the increasing risk of climate warming, rangeland conservation is imperative. The future development should shift from livestock-focus animal husbandry to service-based ecotourism in the sacred landscape. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling Land Use Change and Environmental Impact)

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