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Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (29 March 2019) | Viewed by 50767

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Athanasios Loukas

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Department of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Interests: surface hydrology; water resource management and engineering; climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources; extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts)
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Prof. Dr. Luis Garrote

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Guest Editor

Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulics, Energy and Environment, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Interests: hydrodynamic modeling; water resources; hydrology; vulnerability; climate change; quantitative assessment
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Dr. Lampros Vasiliades

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Guest Editor

Division of Hydraulics and Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece
Interests: hydrology; water resources; hydrological extremes; hydroinformatics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Natural hazards have caused significant damages to natural and manmade environments during the last few decades. Severe storms, floods, and droughts are the most destructive water-related hazards and are mainly responsible for the loss of human lives, infrastructure damages, and economic losses. It is probable that the frequency and severity of extreme hydrological and hydro-meteorological events (e.g., storms, floods, and droughts) are due to global climate change and variability. Advanced models and methodologies should be developed for the analysis, simulation, forecasting, and hazard prevention of weather-induced extreme hydrological events and the assessment of disaster risk. Assessing the risk and uncertainty of hydrological and hydro-meteorological extremes is a crucial step towards decision making. Decision makers are interested in determining and quantifying the risk and uncertainty of hydro-technical projects.

Inn this Special Issue, we welcome the papers presented in the 3^rd International Electronic Conference on Water Sciences (ECWS-3) on Hydrological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty and new contributions on the following topics:

Advances in flood estimation and modeling
Hydrological drought methods and modeling approaches
Uncertainty and hydrological/hydro-meteorological extremes
Risk and engineering designs of hydro-technical structures and projects
The impact of climate change on hydrological and hydro-meteorological extremes
Applications of geo-information systems in hydrological and hydro-meteorological extremes
Socio-economic assessments of hydrological and hydro-meteorological extremes

Submission Type: selected papers presented in ECWS-3 and new submissions on the topics of the Special Issue.

Prof. Dr. Athanasios G. Loukas
Prof. Dr. Luis Garrote
Dr. Lampros Vasiliades
Guest Editors

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

hydrological and hydro-meteorological extremes
storms
floods
droughts
climate change and variability
risk
uncertainty

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Published Papers (12 papers)

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Editorial

Jump to: Research, Other

6 pages, 200 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty

by Athanasios Loukas, Luis Garrote and Lampros Vasiliades

Water 2021, 13(3), 377; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030377 - 1 Feb 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2738

Abstract

Natural hazards have caused significant damages to natural and manmade environments during the last few decades [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

Research

Jump to: Editorial, Other

15 pages, 4085 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Modified IHACRES Rainfall-Runoff Model for Predicting the Hydrologic Response of a River Basin Connected with a Deep Groundwater Aquifer

by Iolanda Borzì, Brunella Bonaccorso and Aldo Fiori

Water 2019, 11(10), 2031; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102031 - 28 Sep 2019

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 3817

Abstract

A flow regime is influenced by the degree of hydrologic connection between surface water and groundwater. As this connection becomes more transient and the basin’s runoff response more non-linear, such as for intermittent streams, the need for explicit representation of the groundwater component increases. The present study investigates the connection between Northern Etna groundwater system and the Alcantara river basin in Sicily (Italy). In particular, the upstream part of the basin, whose flow regime is essentially intermittent, is modeled through a modified version of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The structure of the model includes a routing module formulated as a two-store model, with the upper store simulating the quick component of the runoff and recharging the lower store which, in turn, describes the slow component of the runoff and the groundwater extraction and losses. Both stores are conceptualized as simple linear reservoirs, with the lower one that maintains a continuous water balance account of groundwater storage volumes for the upstream basin area with respect to a control cross-section, assumed to be the stream gauging station. The model is calibrated at Moio Alcantara cross-section, where daily streamflow data are available. Model calibration and validation are carried out for the period 1980–1984 and 1986–1988, respectively. A first-order analysis is also performed to assess the sensitivity of model parameters. The adopted configuration is shown to improve model performance with respect to the original IHACRES model, with the proposed formulation able to better capture the interactions between the aquifer and the river. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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11 pages, 1320 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Intraseasonal Dynamics of River Discharge and Burned Forest Areas in Siberia

by Evgenii I. Ponomarev, Tatiana V. Ponomareva and Anatoly S. Prokushkin

Water 2019, 11(6), 1146; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061146 - 31 May 2019

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3808

Abstract

This study demonstrates the dependence between the forest burning rates and abnormal decrease in Siberian river discharges under the conditions of the permafrost zone. Our study area is in Central Siberia and Eastern Siberia/Yakutia. Four rivers (Podkamennaya Tunguska, Lower Tunguska, Aldan, and Viluy) were selected for the study. We analyzed the long-term and seasonal variation of river discharges (archive of The Global Runoff Data Centre for 1939–2015) together with the forest burning dynamics within the river basins (archive of Sukachev Institute of Forest for 1996–2015). We compared the discharges per year with the 77-year average value. Abnormally low levels of discharge constituted 58–78% of the averaged annual rate. An analysis of available chronologies of extreme fire events and relative burned areas (RBAs) showed a high correlation with intra-seasonal data on the runoff minima. The most significant response of river discharges to the wildfire effect was shown for the late summer/autumn season after extreme wildfires during the summer period. The deficit of the runoff was not explained by a low precipitation. Late summer and autumn anomalies of discharge were typical (r = −0.57…−0.77, p < 0.05) for rivers of Central Siberia in seasons of extreme forest burning. The correlation was lower for rivers of Eastern Siberia/Yakutia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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21 pages, 4609 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Adaptation Effort and Performance of Water Management Strategies to Face Climate Change Impacts in Six Representative Basins of Southern Europe

by Alvaro Sordo-Ward, Alfredo Granados, Ana Iglesias, Luis Garrote and María Dolores Bejarano

Water 2019, 11(5), 1078; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051078 - 23 May 2019

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 4212

Abstract

We evaluated different management alternatives to enhance potential water availability for agriculture under climate change scenarios. The management goal involved maximizing potential water availability, understood as the maximum volume of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, and taking into account specified reliability requirements. We focused on potential water availability for agriculture and assumed two types of demands: urban supply and irrigation. If potential water availability was not enough to satisfy all irrigation demands, management measures were applied aiming at achieving a compromise solution between resources and demands. The methodological approach consisted of estimation and comparison of runoff for current and future period under climate change effects, calculation of water availability changes due to changes in runoff, and evaluation of the adaptation choices that can modify the distribution of water availability, under climate change. Adaptation choices include modifying water allocation to agriculture, increasing the reservoir storage capacity, improving the efficiency of urban water use, and modifying water allocation to environmental flows. These management measures were evaluated at the desired points of the river network by applying the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model. We simulated the behavior of a set of reservoirs that supply water for a set of prioritized demands, complying with specified ecological flows and accounting for evaporation losses. We applied the methodology in six representative basins of southern Europe: Duero-Douro, Ebro, Guadalquivir, Po, Maritsa-Evros, and Struma-Strymon. While in some basins, such as the Ebro or Struma-Strymon, measures can significantly increase water availability and compensate for a fraction of water scarcity due to climate change, in other basins, like the Guadalquivir, water availability cannot be enhanced by applying the management measures analyzed, and irrigation water use will have to be reduced. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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17 pages, 4402 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Robustness Spatiotemporal Clustering and Trend Detection of Rainfall Erosivity Density in Greece

by Konstantinos Vantas, Epaminondas Sidiropoulos and Athanasios Loukas

Water 2019, 11(5), 1050; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11051050 - 20 May 2019

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4093

Abstract

Soil erosion is affected by rainfall, among other factors, and it is likely to increase in the future due to climate change impacts, resulting in higher rainfall intensities. This paper evaluates the impact of the missing values ratio on the computation of the rainfall erosivity factor, R, and erosivity density, ED. The paper also investigates the temporal trends and defines regions of Greece with a similar monthly distribution of ED using an unsupervised method. Preprocessed and free from noise and errors rainfall data from 108 stations across Greece were extracted from the Greek National Bank of Hydrological and Meteorological Information. The rainfall data were analyzed and erosive rainfalls were identified, their return period was determined using intensity–duration–frequency curves and R and ED values were computed. The impact of missing data in the computation of annual values of R and ED was investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The findings indicated that missing rainfall data resulted in a linear underestimation of R, while ED is more robust. The trends in ED timeseries were evaluated using the Kendall’s Tau test and their autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation were computed for a small subset of stations using criteria based on the quality of data. Furthermore, cluster analysis was applied to a larger subset of stations to define regions of Greece with similar monthly distribution of ED. The findings of this study indicate that: (a) ED should be preferred for the assessment of erosivity in Greece over the direct computation of R, (b) ED timeseries are found to be stationary for the majority of the selected stations, in contrast to reported precipitation trends for the same time period, (c) Greece is divided into three clusters/areas of stations with distinct monthly distributions of ED. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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18 pages, 7463 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Causal Reasoning: Towards Dynamic Predictive Models for Runoff Temporal Behavior of High Dependence Rivers

by José-Luis Molina, Santiago Zazo and Ana-María Martín

Water 2019, 11(5), 877; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050877 - 26 Apr 2019

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 3791

Abstract

Nowadays, a noteworthy temporal alteration of traditional hydrological patterns is being observed, producing a higher variability and more unpredictable extreme events worldwide. This is largely due to global warming, which is generating a growing uncertainty over water system behavior, especially river runoff. Understanding these modifications is a crucial and not trivial challenge that requires new analytical strategies like Causality, addressed by Causal Reasoning. Through Causality over runoff series, the hydrological memory and its logical time-dependency structure have been dynamically/stochastically discovered and characterized. This is done in terms of the runoff dependence strength over time. This has allowed determining and quantifying two opposite temporal-fractions within runoff: Temporally Conditioned/Non-conditioned Runoff (TCR/TNCR). Finally, a successful predictive model is proposed and applied to an unregulated stretch, Mijares river catchment (Jucar river basin, Spain), with a very high time-dependency behavior. This research may have important implications over the knowledge of historical rivers´ behavior and their adaptation. Furthermore, it lays the foundations for reaching an optimum reservoir dimensioning through the building of predictive models of runoff behavior. Regarding reservoir capacity, this research would imply substantial economic/environmental savings. Also, a more sustainable management of river basins through more reliable control reservoirs’ operation is expected to be achieved. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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28 pages, 7123 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kilombero Catchment in Tanzania

by Kristian Näschen, Bernd Diekkrüger, Constanze Leemhuis, Larisa S. Seregina and Roderick van der Linden

Water 2019, 11(4), 859; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040859 - 24 Apr 2019

Cited by 36 | Viewed by 9032

Abstract

This article illustrates the impact of potential future climate scenarios on water quantity in time and space for an East African floodplain catchment surrounded by mountainous areas. In East Africa, agricultural intensification is shifting from upland cultivation into the wetlands due to year-round water availability and fertile soils. These advantageous agricultural conditions might be hampered through climate change impacts. Additionally, water-related risks, like droughts and flooding events, are likely to increase. Hence, this study investigates future climate patterns and their impact on water resources in one production cluster in Tanzania. To account for these changes, a regional climate model ensemble of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa project was analyzed to investigate changes in climatic patterns until 2060, according to the RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios. The semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was utilized to analyze the impacts on water resources according to all scenarios. Modeling results indicate increasing temperatures, especially in the hot dry season, intensifying the distinctive features of the dry and rainy season. This consequently aggravates hydrological extremes, such as more-pronounced flooding and decreasing low flows. Overall, annual averages of water yield and surface runoff increase up to 61.6% and 67.8%, respectively, within the bias-corrected scenario simulations, compared to the historical simulations. However, changes in precipitation among the analyzed scenarios vary between −8.3% and +22.5% of the annual averages. Hydrological modeling results also show heterogeneous spatial patterns inside the catchment. These spatio-temporal patterns indicate the possibility of an aggravation for severe floods in wet seasons, as well as an increasing drought risk in dry seasons across the scenario simulations. Apart from that, the discharge peak, which is crucial for the flood recession agriculture in the floodplain, is likely to shift from April to May from the 2020s onwards. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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18 pages, 8125 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Hydrological Modeling Approach Using Radar-Rainfall Ensemble and Multi-Runoff-Model Blending Technique

by Myungjin Lee, Narae Kang, Hongjun Joo, Hung Soo Kim, Soojun Kim and Jongso Lee

Water 2019, 11(4), 850; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040850 - 23 Apr 2019

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4317

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to reduce the uncertainty in the generation of rainfall data and runoff simulations. We propose a blending technique using a rainfall ensemble and runoff simulation. To create rainfall ensembles, the probabilistic perturbation method was added to the deterministic raw radar rainfall data. Then, we used three rainfall-runoff models that use rainfall ensembles as input data to perform a runoff analysis: The tank model, storage function model, and streamflow synthesis and reservoir regulation model. The generated rainfall ensembles have increased uncertainty when the radar is underestimated, due to rainfall intensity and topographical effects. To confirm the uncertainty, 100 ensembles were created. The mean error between radar rainfall and ground rainfall was approximately 1.808–3.354 dBR. We derived a runoff hydrograph with greatly reduced uncertainty by applying the blending technique to the runoff simulation results and found that uncertainty is improved by more than 10%. The applicability of the method was confirmed by solving the problem of uncertainty in the use of rainfall radar data and runoff models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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19 pages, 4305 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Bias Correction of Climate Model’s Precipitation Using the Copula Method and Its Application in River Basin Simulation

by Georgia Lazoglou, Christina Anagnostopoulou, Charalampos Skoulikaris and Konstantia Tolika

Water 2019, 11(3), 600; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030600 - 22 Mar 2019

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 4027

Abstract

During the last few decades, the utilization of the data from climate models in hydrological studies has increased as they can provide data in the regions that lack raw meteorological information. The data from climate models data often present biases compared to the observed data and consequently, several methods have been developed for correcting statistical biases. The present study uses the copula for modeling the dependence between the daily mean and total monthly precipitation using E-OBS data in the Mesta/Nestos river basin in order to use this relationship for the bias correction of the MPI climate model monthly precipitation. Additionally, both the non-corrected and bias corrected data are tested as they are used as the inputs to a spatial distributed hydrological model for simulating the basin runoff. The results showed that the MPI model significantly overestimates the E-OBS data while the differences are reduced sufficiently after the bias correction. The outputs from the hydrological models were proven to coincide with the precipitation analysis results and hence, the simulated discharges in the case of copula corrected data present an increased correlation with the observed flows. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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14 pages, 7193 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Experimental Analysis of the Influence of Aeration in the Energy Dissipation of Supercritical Channel Flows

by Juan José Rebollo, David López, Luis Garrote, Tamara Ramos, Rubén Díaz and Ricardo Herrero

Water 2019, 11(3), 576; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030576 - 20 Mar 2019

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3323 | Correction

Abstract

Energy dissipation structures play an important role in flood risk management. Many variables need to be considered for the design of these structures. Aeration has been one of the more studied phenomena over the last years, due to its influence in the performance of hydraulic structures. The purpose of the work presented in this article is to experimentally characterize the effects of aeration on boundary friction in supercritical and fully turbulent flows. The physical model used to analyze the aeration effects consists of a spillway chute 6.5 m high and a stilling basin of 10 m length and 2 m high. A pump and compressor supply the water-air mixture and are controlled at the entrance by valves and flowmeters. The ensuing channel is monitored to determine the velocity profile and air concentration of the flow into the stilling basin. The average values of both variables and Manning’s coefficient along the channel are used to determine the relation between air concentration and energy dissipation by friction. A velocity increase with greater air entrainment has been found in all scenarios since friction is the main energy dissipation mechanism in open channels flow. Finally, an equation is proposed to characterize this evolution based on the results obtained. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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17 pages, 2871 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Hydrological Risk Analysis of Dams: The Influence of Initial Reservoir Level Conditions

by Ivan Gabriel-Martin, Alvaro Sordo-Ward, Luis Garrote and Isabel Granados

Water 2019, 11(3), 461; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030461 - 5 Mar 2019

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 4228

Abstract

In this paper, we present a method to assess the influence of the initial reservoir level in hydrological dam safety and risk analysis. Traditionally, in professional practice, the procedures applied are basically deterministic. Several physical processes are defined deterministically, according to the criteria of the designer (usually in the conservative side), although there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding these processes. A relevant variable is the reservoir level considered at the beginning of flood events. Hydrological dam safety assessment methods traditionally assume that the reservoir is initially full when it receives the design flood, thus, staying in the conservative side when designing a new dam. However, the distribution of reservoir levels at the beginning of flood episodes takes more importance for evaluating the real risk for the dams in operation. We analyzed three different scenarios—initial reservoir level equal to maximum normal level, equal to a maximum conservation level, and following the probability distribution from the historical records. To do so, we presented a method applied to a gated-spillway dam located in the Tagus river basin. A set of 100,000 inflow hydrographs was generated through a Monte Carlo procedure, by reproducing the statistics of the main observed hydrograph characteristics—peak flow, volume, and duration. The set of 100,000 hydrographs was routed through the reservoir applying the Volumetric Evaluation Method as a flood control strategy. In order to compare the three scenarios, we applied an economic global risk index. The index combines the hydrological risk for the dam, linked to the maximum water level reached in the reservoir, during the flood routing, and the flood risk in the downstream river reach, linked to the discharge releases from the dam. The results showed the importance of accounting for the fluctuation of initial reservoir levels, for assessing the risk related to hydrological dam safety. Furthermore, a procedure to quantify the uncertainty associated with the effects of initial reservoir level on hydrological dam safety, has been proposed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological and Hydro-Meteorological Extremes and Related Risk and Uncertainty)

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