3.2.2. Analysis
In this stage, the factorial analysis of the data obtained in the 217 surveys was carried out. Several tools allow the calculation of factor analyses to be performed to determine the level of influence that each of the variables has. Among these tools are SPSS, Excel, etc. The important thing is to know exactly what the objective of the factor analysis calculation is [
39].
The analysis process was carried out in SPSS to verify, through a factor analysis, the components that affected the use of eCommerce.
Table 2 shows the results obtained through a dimension reduction model. To identify the appropriate factorial model, the Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) measure and Bartlett’s sphericity test were used. This model tests the partial correlations among variables. In addition, Bartlett’s test checks whether the correlation matrix is an identity matrix. KMO assumes values between 0 and 1; according to various works reviewed, for a KMO coefficient to be adequate, it must be greater than 0.6. The coefficient obtained was 0.788, so the items were taken as adequate, and the analysis continued. In Bartlett’s test, a chi-square value is obtained that is associated with the sampling distribution that allows one to know the probability of error when rejecting a null hypothesis. The ideal case that is expected for the significance value is that this value is less than 0.005, something that was fulfilled in the analysis, with a value less than 0.001, which indicated that there were significant differences between the correlation matrix and the identity matrix.
Table 3 shows the values obtained in the anti-image matrices; this type of matrix contains the negatives of the partial correlation coefficients, and the anti-image covariance matrix contains the negatives of the partial covariances. To be considered a good factor model, most of the off-diagonal elements must be small. In the results obtained in the covariance matrix, it was observed that the values were good and exceeded the 0.6 established in KMO, except for the value obtained in speed, which was a lower value, 0.386; however, in the correlation matrix, it had a value of 0.777. A similar result was obtained for the “environment” item. In addition, with the positive values closest to 1, a diagonal was formed, in which case, the values above the diagonal were identical to those below it, which meant that it was a mirror matrix.
Table 4 shows the table of commonalities, where the percentage of variance in a variable explained by all the factors together is measured and can be interpreted as the reliability of the indicator. With the results obtained in the table, it could be highlighted that the variables of comfort and privacy had less reliability. This is because the amount of variance in all variables is explained by the eigenvalue, and if a factor has a low eigenvalue, then it contributes little to explaining the variance in the variables. Another low value was that of schedules. These three parameters were the ones that had to be analyzed in depth to determine the degree of influence that they had on the research question.
Table 5 shows the matrix of the total explained variance. The results indicated that the final solution was explained by two factors or dimensions. These two factors represented 70,016% of our accumulated variance, with each factor being greater than 40% of the accumulated variance, with this being an adequate value for analysis. The headers are detailed at the end of the table.
Figure 3 shows the sedimentation graph, which is a representation of the magnitude of the eigenvalues that identifies the number of values that must be extracted. The eigenvalues that explained most of the variance are located on the left side, forming a slope. The graph helped us to visually determine which were the optimal factors.
Table 6 shows the matrix of rotated factors, with which each item belonging to or influencing each factor was determined. As a characteristic identified in the review of previous works, the minimum number of items for each factor must be three to four to be considered valid. In this case, the analysis generated two factors, which the average and speed items directly affected, as can be seen in the table. When there are items that affect two or more factors, these can create false incidence values or can subtract degrees of influence from other items. Therefore, it is recommended to eliminate the shared items, generate the calculation of the rotated matrix again, and verify the degrees of influence of each item on the generated factors.
According to the results obtained, it was identified that factor one had the greatest influence on the use of eCommerce and that the perception of the clients was related to the offered item. This result was admissible, considering that the greater the offer of products and of comparisons among the products found in the digital market is, the greater the attraction of the consumer is. Factor two had an item with greater influence, which was the hours, with these being an advantage for traditional companies. Another item identified was the privacy of factor one, at present, due to the large volume of computer attacks that seek to obtain, modify, or delete user data. This item had a great impact on the use of eCommerce by people; therefore, it is important to establish models and architectures in the migration to a digital environment that comply with all information security and privacy measures. To validate the analysis, it is recommended to use Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Cronbach’s alpha is the reliability indicator of psychometric scales that provides a measure of the internal consistency of the items that make up a scale. If this measure is high, it implies evidence of the homogeneity of the scale, that is, that the elements point in the same direction.
For example, in
Table 7, the calculation results of Cronbach’s alpha are shown, and the data considered were obtained from the above-mentioned 217 records; however, for the example in the table, only the first 20 are presented. In the table, the dotted spaces mean that there were multiple records in the original repository. The last row contains the results of the calculation of the variance based on the entire population. The total column is the sum of all the values of each of the categories that were included in the analysis.
In the calculation of Cronbach’s alpha, the variances of each category were used plus the total variance shown in the last column. These data were applied using the formula presented below:
where the following apply:
Si is the variance of item i;
St the variance of the total observed values;
k is the number of questions or items;
The results of Cronbach’s alpha are presented in
Table 8. This consisted of three calculations or interactions, and interaction 1 presents the result of the calculation of the six items. According to the values obtained in the variances, three values were identified that were significant for the analyses. These values were comfort, privacy, and supply; the variances in these items indicated that their incidence could affect the coefficient of Cronbach’s alpha. Therefore, in interaction 2, the supply data were eliminated, and the result increased to be greater than 0.8, which indicated that the analysis was more representative, as it did not consider this item. The process was carried out with each item that presented variance values close to zero; however, by removing the privacy value, the alpha coefficient reduced, which meant that it was a parameter that had a great influence on the analyses. The opposite happened when we removed the comfort item; without this value, the coefficient was closer to one and exceeded 0.8, which implied that the analysis was better and had greater reliability.
This process can answer several research questions one may have about small business migration to eCommerce. However, it is important to point out that this first analysis integrated the variables identified in previous works. If the answer is not reliable enough, it is necessary to integrate a greater number of variables or data sources. Additional data sources can be of various nature, as mentioned in the above sections. The most common example of external sources are surveys that are found on the web and are considered open data. Other possible sources to be added are social networks; these contain a high volume of information that can be analyzed about the perception of users relative to a brand, product, or service.
In this work, several additional questions were added to evaluate new categories, and new surveys were designed to obtain data. The new categories added sought to identify all the possible causes that were marked as the main points for people to migrate from traditional markets to eCommerce.
Many categories can be included in this process; however, each of the new categories must be analyzed by each department in charge of market research. In this work, six additional categories were integrated. In each category, two items or questions were included to identify the perception of users. The questions for each category are presented below:
From the data analysis of the categories attached to the process, several results were obtained that guided the understanding of what consumers looked for in an eCommerce model.
Table 9 shows the results; the KMO coefficient was 0.763, a value that allowed the analysis to be defined as valid, considering in addition that the significance value was less than 0.005, reaffirming its validity.
In
Table 10, the anti-image values of covariance and correlation are presented. In this analysis, the incidence of each of the items and how this determines the different factors or dimensions considered for the evaluation of the data are observed. In the correlation of the diagonal values, it was obtained that they exceeded 0.3; however, there were values of certain items that could be considered as the minimum and could be eliminated to improve the response of the analysis. In this table, item 1 had a correlation value of 0.450; this was a low value that was kept in mind to compare it with the following tables and eliminate it if its influence on the object of study was not relevant. In the table, the headings correspond to the questions in each category; these were replaced by the letter “P”, accompanied by a number as an identifier, for example, Q1: Is it easy to find what I need on the website? This format was followed in all tables so that they fit the size of the format.
Table 11 presents the results of the commonalities, where it was identified that items 1 and 2 had low extraction values of 0.012 and 0.044 respectively. As valid values in the analysis, it was established that all those items with an extraction value greater than 0.400 were valid in commonality processing.
The analysis defined four factors to reach the percentage of the accumulated variance of 65.492%; this was a valid value to consider in the analysis.
Table 12 shows the factors and the items that were directly aligned with each of them. The factors to be accepted within the analysis had to integrate at least three items. This was true in the matrix of rotated factors; however, each factor had to be reviewed, since there were values that did not influence the decision of consumers. The table shows how each item was related to each factor; in the case of items 1 and 2, these did not represent a relationship with any of the factors. In addition, other items did not have a great influence on the factors, so these were excluded, and the analysis was conducted again to verify the changes in the analysis. To validate the effects of the changes, the calculation of Cronbach’s alpha was used, where the least representative items were eliminated from the analysis.
Table 13 shows the results of Cronbach’s alpha. Interaction 1 showed the result with all the items; the result was less than 0.8 and could be considered valid for the analyses. According to the results of the matrix of rotated factors in the second interaction, item 1, belonging to the accessibility category, was eliminated. The result obtained for Cronbach’s alpha improved the validity of the analyses, and the same process was carried out with P2. In interaction P3, there was an increase in the value of alpha; therefore, these items had little influence on the consumer’s decision. The items linked to the category of “accessibility” could be eliminated or replaced with others among those identified in the above sections. Another important fact to keep in mind is that in this work, the number of questions per category was limited to two, with a total of twelve questions corresponding to six categories. It is possible that by integrating a greater number of questions into the analysis, the interaction results would have greater precision. However, it was necessary to consider the guidelines in the design of surveys to guarantee the information collected.
The proposed method was applied by two minor companies that are dedicated to the sale of school supplies. These companies, within their stock, offer many products, such as markers, notebooks, pens, scissors, etc. These companies during the pandemic were financially compromised since their line of business was based on the direct interaction with the consumer [
40]. By applying the method and defining each of the factors that affected their clientele, these companies decided to scale to eCommerce. Three months after the application, the effectiveness was measured through a quick survey of the owners of the company; in this survey, they were asked to indicate the result achieved vs. the expected result. In the two companies, they established that the result achieved was between 70 and 75% vs. the 80% expected result after three months of execution. With these data, it was identified that the effectiveness of the application of the method was 87.5%.
For the evaluation of the results, a machine learning algorithm was applied, with the objective to train an AI model and compare the results obtained from the factorial analysis. The algorithm applied was a decision tree, where the 12 questions posed in the survey and the corresponding data were considered, and to this, the general query on the frequency of use of eCommerce was added.
The validity of the models was checked through cross-validation, a very common verification method. N-fold cross-validation divides the training set into N parts, using N-1 parts to train and one part to test. It repeats this N times and finally calculates the result. The dataset with the survey responses was configured for validation as follows: The total data corresponding to 723 surveys were used in two groups, where 70% of the data were used for training, and the remaining 30%, for tests. To measure this quality, precision was used, which expressed the percentage of values that were correctly classified. The training dataset that corresponded to 70% considered 506 people, and the 30% of test data were derived from 217 surveys, which corresponded to the most representative population, as calculated in the above sections. When analyzing the model training dataset, the results presented in
Table 14 were obtained. The total number of instances was 506, of which 75.4941% were classified as correct and 24.5059% as incorrect instances. The absolute error was 32.3%, and the relative root square error was 72.38%.
Table 15 presents the precision values for each class; it was observed that the enough and always classes had values of less than 60%, and these results were considered in the comparison with the test dataset. Each class represented the use of electronic commerce in the surveyed population; these criteria were enough, some, little, always, and never. Linearly, each class was separable from the other. This predicted which class the observations per question belonged to; therefore the dataset was considered as a multi-class classification model. The attributes corresponded to 12 questions; with these, a 10-fold cross-validation was performed with the use of a training set. Training is important because regardless of the algorithms that are included in the analysis, this process allows one to adjust the parameters and train the models to guarantee the results.
In the next stage, we worked with the test dataset that corresponded to the 217 instances mentioned above. As part of the performance evaluation process, the algorithm was run with two iterations; when it was executed, the percentage of correct classification decreased considerably. When applied with 5 total iterations, the results did not vary too much compared with those obtained with the 10 iterations used for the exercise; therefore, the iteration limit was selected as 10 to avoid overlearning.
Table 16 shows the stratified cross-validation, where the total number of instances was 217, which corresponded to the number of records entered; of these, 171 interactions were classified as correct, with a validity percentage of 78.8018%. This value was greater than 78%, an indicator that established that the process was sufficiently valid, with 21.1982% of instances being classified as erroneous. Similarly, the table details the values of different variables, such as Kappa, which had a value of 0.7347. This was a value close to 1, so it was considered that there was a strong agreement among the evaluations made using the algorithm.
Various metrics were used in this investigation to evaluate the performance of the algorithms. The classifier performance implies precision, error rate, recall, and F-Measure.
Table 17 presents the detailed precision data by class.
In the results obtained from the confusion matrix in
Table 18, 46 instances were classified incorrectly, and 171 were correctly identified. In the class that never used eCommerce, there were 40 people classified as correct in the iteration, meaning that their answers in the survey corresponded to their real opinion. Among the erroneous classifications, there were five people, two of whom belonged to group c, two to group d, and one to group e. Of people who used eCommerce little, 29 were classified correctly, and 8 were incorrect. In the class something, there were 41 correct and 4 incorrect classifications. In the class enough, 25 classifications were correct and 21 incorrect; finally, in the class always, 36 people were classified as correct and 5 as incorrect. With these results, it was possible to determine for each class the number of effective surveys that allowed us to evaluate the use of eCommerce; regarding the number of incorrect classifications, a relatively low value was obtained, which could be considered in another analysis for the identification of the reasons why the answers did not represent reality in the categorized classes.
The ROC area measurement is one of the most important values of the algorithm output. The optimal classifier had ROC area values close to 1; therefore, the survey or data collection instrument was taken as valid. The next phase of the analysis generated the data cluster to which the SimpleKMeans algorithm was applied.
Table 19 presents the results obtained, where two clusters were generated; these evaluated the data when the users indicated that they used an eCommerce channel at the “Something and Enough” level. In each cluster, the existing relationships were indicated by a question and how these determined the predetermining factors of the use of eCommerce in the selected population. The table shows that there were 13 attributes, which corresponded to the 12 questions that evaluated the six initial categories. To differentiate the questions, the category and an identifier corresponding to the number of questions were placed, for example, Accessibility-Preg1–Accessibility-Preg2; this was repeated with each question.
In attribute analysis, the best first, with a forward search direction, was used as the search method. The process generated 79 evaluated subsets, and the merit of the best subset found was 0.233, with question two of the satisfaction category being the attribute with the highest influence on the use of eCommerce. In addition, there were predictive attributes that were established as complementary and had a high incidence value to respond to the phenomenon under study; these attributes are shown below.
The selected attributes were 2,5,6,9,10,13 (six attributes):
Accessibility_Preg1;
Catalogs_Preg2;
Compliance_Preg1;
Support_Preg2;
Satisfaction_Preg1;
Shipment_Preg2.
Among the selected attributes, the analysis considered question 1 in the accessibility category as an attribute that had an impact on a user making use of eCommerce. This comparison was very useful to adjust the proposed method and guarantee the identification of the factors that influenced the use of eCommerce.
Once the parameters were adjusted and the results of the dataset process were verified, the re-evaluation of the model was established. Therefore, we reassessed the training dataset with the test dataset, and the averaged result allowed us to establish the accuracy of the model and define exactly which were the categories that the respondents defined as important when using eCommerce.
Table 20 shows the results of the cross-validation matrix. In the reevaluation, a result of less than 74.1935% was obtained in the instances classified as correct, this being less than that presented in the test dataset. Consequently, the error increased; therefore, it could be established that during the tests, it is better to use the test dataset with the data of the most representative population. These results were the ones that established which were the categories that responded to the study phenomenon.