Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Cost Estimation in the Early Stage
2.2. Life-Cycle Cost
2.3. Probabilistic Prediction
3. Research Framework
4. Deterministic Model Development
4.1. Data Collection and Establishment of Database
4.2. LCC Prediction Models Using CBR
4.2.1. LCC Prediction Model I
4.2.2. LCC Prediction Model II
4.2.3. Validation
5. Probabilistic Model Development
5.1. Probabilistic LCC Prediction
5.2. Verification
5.3. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
ADi | difference between the value of attribute i in the new case and in the retrieved case |
ANN | artificial neural networks |
AS | attribute similarity |
AVNi | value of attribute i in the new case |
AVRi | value of attribute i in the retrieved case |
AWi | weight of attribute i |
CBR | case-based reasoning |
Cretrieved | the costs of the retrieved case |
CS | case similarity |
ERn | error rate of case n |
HCS | highest degree of similarity to the new case |
LCC | life-cycle cost |
LCCA | life-cycle cost analysis |
LCCn | LCC of case n |
LCCn_prediction | LCC prediction value of case n |
MCS | Monte Carlo simulation |
MRR | maintenance, repair, and replacement |
MRA | multiple-regression analysis |
OM | operation and maintenance |
PEi | revision weight of attribute i |
RC | revised cost |
RCs | reinforced concrete structure |
RVi | revision value of the attribute i |
SRCs | steel framed reinforced concrete structure |
Ss | steel frame structure |
TRV | total revision value |
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Name | Variable Type | Range | Variable Setting |
---|---|---|---|
Total floor area | Numerical | 5307–157,208 m2 | X1 |
Site area | Numerical | 3329–200,641 m2 | X2 |
Maximum height | Numerical | 14–2144 m | X3 |
No. of floors above ground | Numerical | 3–231 | X4 |
No. of floors below ground | Numerical | 1–24 | X5 |
No. of parking spaces | Numerical | 55–22,175 vehicles | X6 |
Construction period | Numerical | 5–245 months | X7 |
Structural type | Categorical | RCs* | X8a |
RCs + Ss** | X8b | ||
RCs + SRCs*** | X8c | ||
RCs + SRCs + Ss | X8d | ||
City size | Categorical | Metropolitan, non-metropolitan | X9 |
District type | Categorical | District unit planning zone | X10a |
Semi-residential area | X10b | ||
General commercial area | X10c | ||
District unit planning zone and semi-residential area | X10d | ||
Foundation type | Categorical | Mat | X11a |
Pile | X11b | ||
Pile + mat | X11c | ||
No. of elevators | Numerical | 2–212 units | X12 |
Finished grade | Numerical | 1–25 grades | X13 |
Construction cost | Numerical | USD 24,577,100–285,937,893 | Y1 |
MRR cost | Numerical | USD 20,737,230–348,820,618 | Y2 |
LCC | Numerical | USD 45,314,330–634,758,512 | Y3 |
MRA Summary | R | 0.981 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | 0.963 | ||||
R2adj | 0.960 | ||||
Variable | Unstandardized Coefficient | Standardized Coefficient | t | Significance (p-Value) | |
B | Standard Error | β | |||
(Constant) | −5,541,692 | 5,486,725 | 0.00 | −1.01 | 0.02 |
X1 | 1898 | 178 | 1.17 | 10.64 | 0.00 |
X3 | −2,610,965 | 340,682 | −1.52 | −7.66 | 0.00 |
X4 | 13,458,839 | 1,700,684 | 1.60 | 7.91 | 0.00 |
X6 | −68,761 | 15,898 | −0.48 | −4.32 | 0.00 |
X7 | 1,404,149 | 271,861 | 0.21 | 5.16 | 0.00 |
X8b | −18,746,135 | 4,102,500 | −0.12 | −4.57 | 0.00 |
MRA Summary | R | 0.983 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | 0.967 | ||||
R2adj | 0.962 | ||||
Variable | Unstandardized Coefficient | Standardized Coefficient | t | Significance (p-Value) | |
B | Standard Error | β | |||
(Constant) | −29,601,107 | 7063,189 | - | –4 | 0.00 |
X1 | 2568 | 228 | 1.27 | 11.25 | 0.00 |
X3 | −2,658,439 | 437,608 | −1.25 | −6.07 | 0.00 |
X4 | 13,437,348 | 2,125,987 | 1.28 | 6.32 | 0.00 |
X5 | 6,443,592 | 3,128,862 | 0.07 | 2.06 | 0.04 |
X6 | −110,384 | 20,895 | −0.61 | −5.28 | 0.00 |
X7 | 1,754,671 | 392,227 | 0.21 | 4.47 | 0.00 |
X8b | −16,115,146 | 5,074,510 | −0.08 | −3.18 | 0.00 |
X9 | −16,892,236 | 6,087,213 | −0.08 | −2.78 | 0.01 |
X11a | 13,633,864 | 4,372,442 | 0.08 | 3.12 | 0.00 |
MRA Summary | R | 0.984 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | 0.968 | ||||
R2adj | 0.965 | ||||
Variable | Unstandardized Coefficient | Standardized Coefficient | t | Significance (p-Value) | |
B | Standard Error | β | |||
(Constant) | −28,799,297 | 11,477,347 | − | −2.51 | 0.01 |
X1 | 4263 | 372 | 1.17 | 11.45 | 0.00 |
X3 | −4,761,803 | 719,767 | −1.24 | −6.62 | 0.00 |
X4 | 25,334,694 | 3,594,984 | 1.35 | 7.05 | 0.00 |
X6 | −153,953 | 33,182 | −0.48 | −4.64 | 0.00 |
X7 | 2,754,399 | 569,695 | 0.18 | 4.83 | 0.00 |
X8b | −38,668,861 | 8,581,798 | −0.11 | −4.51 | 0.00 |
X11a | 18,137,788 | 7,413,204 | 0.06 | 2.45 | 0.02 |
Division | CBR model | MRA model | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Model I | Model II | Model III | Model IV | |
1st fold | 5.43% | 10.31% | 20.04% | 20.23% |
2nd fold | 9.91% | 19.77% | 13.15% | 15.29% |
3rd fold | 10.94% | 9.36% | 18.23% | 19.07% |
4th fold | 5.94% | 17.51% | 6.80% | 15.67% |
5th fold | 10.45% | 13.01% | 9.23% | 11.94% |
6th fold | 7.48% | 15.42% | 6.40% | 7.81% |
7th fold | 14.50% | 18.01% | 32.53% | 20.69% |
8th fold | 10.00% | 26.76% | 7.47% | 10.14% |
9th fold | 12.02% | 12.07% | 5.67% | 10.98% |
10th fold | 8.75% | 19.53% | 12.77% | 15.54% |
Average | 9.54% | 16.18% | 13.23% | 14.74% |
Standard deviation | 2.76% | 5.27% | 8.42% | 4.44% |
Division | Numerical Variable | Categorical Variable |
---|---|---|
Name | Total floor area (X1), maximum height (X3), number of floors above ground (X4), number of floors below ground (X5), number of parking spaces (X6), construction period (X7) | Structural type (X8a, X8b, X8c, X8d), city size (X9), foundation type (X11a, X11b, X11c) |
Name | Variable | Distribution Type | Range |
---|---|---|---|
Total floor area | X1 | Triangular | ±5% |
Maximum height | X3 | ||
Number of floors above ground | X4 | ||
Number of floors below ground | X5 | ||
Number of parking spaces | X6 | ||
Construction period | X7 | ||
Structural type | X8a, X8b, X8c, X8d | Discrete uniform | 0, 1 |
City size | X9 | ||
Foundation type | X11a, X11b, X11c |
Verification Cases | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | 47,256 | 15,314 | 6422 | 67,858 |
X2 | 15,470 | 6331 | 8137 | 53,199 |
X3 | 43 | 40 | 18 | 45 |
X4 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
X5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
X6 | 342 | 121 | 67 | 975 |
X7 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 19 |
X8a | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X8b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
X8c | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
X8d | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
X9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X10a | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
X10b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X10c | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
X10d | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X11a | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
X11b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X11c | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
X12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
X13 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Y1 | 139,883,431 | 72,951,301 | 39,454,092 | 103,131,259 |
Y2 | 146,620,676 | 70,595,290 | 32,043,126 | 103,167,747 |
Y3 | 286,504,107 | 143,546,590 | 71,497,218 | 206,299,006 |
Division | LCC | Deterministic LCC Prediction Value | Probabilistic LCC Prediction Values | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Median | Probabilistic Prediction Range | Probabilistic Prediction Range Occurrence Probability | |||
Case 1 | 286,504,107 | 289,104,243 | 264,077,420 | 263,873,244 | 234,713,012– 293,441,828 | 64.0% |
Case 2 | 143,546,590 | 122,552,966 | 107,096,343 | 114,105,701 | 71,857,843– 142,334,842 | 65.5% |
Case 3 | 71,497,217 | 67,165,619 | 61,519,184 | 59,688,043 | 39,863,677– 83,174,691 | 63.7% |
Case 4 | 206,299,005 | 206,550,902 | 200,161,577 | 201,506,465 | 169,974,991– 230,348,162 | 64.4% |
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Jin, Z.; Kim, J.; Hyun, C.-t.; Han, S. Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3828. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143828
Jin Z, Kim J, Hyun C-t, Han S. Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction. Sustainability. 2019; 11(14):3828. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143828
Chicago/Turabian StyleJin, Zhengxun, Jonghyeob Kim, Chang-taek Hyun, and Sangwon Han. 2019. "Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction" Sustainability 11, no. 14: 3828. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143828