Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Climate Data
- Model climate raw data from the nearest grid point to the specific weather station site compared to the latitude and the longitude of the measured climate data (model-POINT1);
- Weighted average of the model climate raw data for the four nearest grid points using the inverse distance weighting method [43] and taking into account the latitude and the longitude of the climate data locations (model-IDWna);
- Weighted average of the model climate raw data calculated as before, but this time also taking into account the elevation of the climate data locations (model-IDW). The elevation includes the location’s altitude and the height of the measurement’s point for the climate data. For all measured climate data, the height is taken at 2 m above ground, while for the model climate data it is taken at 2 m for the temperature and the humidity, and at 0 m for the solar irradiation.
- All locations of measured climate data (CORR-1), using aggregated data that are averaged over all locations (resulting in one linear regression model);
- Each location of measured climate data (CORR-2), using the data for each location (resulting in one linear regression model per location);
- Each climate zone (CORR-3), using aggregated data that are averaged over all locations in the same climate zone (resulting in one linear regression model per climate zone);
- Each season (CORR-4), using aggregated data that are averaged over all locations for the same season (resulting in one linear regression model per season).
2.2. Building Energy Performance
3. Case Study
3.1. Required Climate Data
3.2. Hellenic Example Buildings
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Future Climate Data
4.2. Building Energy Performance Indicators
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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ΧYΖ Location Adjustment | Air Temperature (°C) | Specific Humidity (g/kg) | Horizontal Irradiation (MJ/m2) |
---|---|---|---|
model-POINT1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 102.0 |
model-IDWna | 2.0 | 1.4 | 99.0 |
model-IDW | 1.8 | 1.3 | 101.4 |
Time Periods | Representative Concentration Pathways | Measured Climate Data | Model Climate Data | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Linear Regression Models | ||||||
CORR-1 | CORR-2 | CORR-3 | CORR-4 | |||
Air Temperature 1 (°C) | ||||||
Present | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 16.8 | |
Near Future–2050 | RCP4.5 | 18.3 | 18.4 | 18.3 | 18.1 | |
RCP8.5 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.5 | ||
Distant Future–2090 | RCP4.5 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 18.5 | 18.3 | |
RCP8.5 | 21.1 | 21.2 | 21.1 | 20.5 | ||
Specific Humidity 2 (g/kg) | ||||||
Present | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | |
Near Future–2050 | RCP4.5 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.6 | |
RCP8.5 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | ||
Distant Future–2090 | RCP4.5 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | |
RCP8.5 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 9.5 | ||
Solar Irradiation 3 (MJ/m2) | ||||||
Present | 484 | 483 | 483 | 483 | 481 | |
Near Future–2050 | RCP4.5 | 484 | 484 | 484 | 481 | |
RCP8.5 | 484 | 484 | 484 | 482 | ||
Distant Future–2090 | RCP4.5 | 483 | 483 | 483 | 480 | |
RCP8.5 | 485 | 485 | 485 | 483 |
Near Future–2050 | Distant Future–2090 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |
Air Temperature (°C) | ||||
Range | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
Variance | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Average | 18.3 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 21.0 |
Coefficient of variation | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
Specific Humidity (g/kg) | ||||
Range | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
Variance | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Average | 8.7 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 |
Coefficient of variation | 1.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 5.6 |
Solar Horizontal Irradiation (MJ/m2) | ||||
Range | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
Variance | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Standard deviation | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Average | 483.1 | 323.0 | 482.3 | 323.4 |
Coefficient of variation | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Measured Climate Data | Model Climate Data | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Near Future–2050 | Distant Future–2090 | ||||
Present Avg | RCP4.5 Avg [Min–Max] | RCP8.5 Avg [Min–Max] | RCP4.5 Avg [Min–Max] | RCP8.5 Avg [Min–Max] | |
Heating Demand (kWh/m2) | |||||
ZA | 31.3 | 21.2 [20.2–23.1] | 20.1 [19.2–22.2] | 20.9 [19.9–22.9] | 10.1 [9.2–12.6] |
ZB | 50.9 | 39.1 [37.6–41.2] | 37.3 [35.8–39.5] | 38.7 [37.1–40.8] | 21.2 [19.6–24.1] |
ZC | 93.8 | 70.4 [67.7–75.6] | 66.7 [64.0–71.5] | 69.1 [66.3–74.1] | 42.2 [40.2–44.8] |
ZD | 152.3 | 120.5 [116.9–124.3] | 116.5 [113.0–120.3] | 118.9 [115.5–122.7] | 78.5 [76.5–80.5] |
N | 53.4 | 39.8 [38.9–41.3] | 38.0 [37.0–39.5] | 39.3 [38.3–40.8] | 22.1 [21.1–24.5] |
Heating Energy Use (kWh/m2) | |||||
ZA | 48.9 | 35.0 [33.6–37.6] | 33.6 [32.2–36.3] | 34.6 [33.2–37.2] | 20.3 [19.1–23.6] |
ZB | 76.4 | 61.2 [58.9–64.0] | 58.9 [56.6–61.8] | 60.7 [58.4–63.6] | 37.6 [35.3–41.6] |
ZC | 154.9 | 123.4 [116.6–130.4] | 127.8 [119.7–135.4] | 126.5 [118.7–133.8] | 165.9 [146.0–177.5] |
ZD | 310.7 | 250.3 [243.3–258.0] | 242.2 [235.4–249.7] | 247.2 [240.5–254.7] | 168.3 [164.3–172.5] |
N | 85.1 | 66.0 [64.6–67.8] | 63.3 [62.0–65.3] | 65.2 [63.8–67.1] | 41.0 [39.6–44.1] |
Cooling Demand (kWh/m2) | |||||
ZA | 101.8 | 120.5 [111.2–130.9] | 127.6 [116.1–139.4] | 125.4 [114.7–136.7] | 167.1 [146.0–184.0] |
ZB | 114.8 | 144.8 [132.9–150.2] | 152.5 [138.4–159.0] | 149.7 [136.4–155.9] | 196.1 [172.7–205.9] |
ZC | 86.2 | 123.4 [116.6–130.4] | 127.8 [119.7–135.4] | 126.5 [118.7–133.8] | 165.9 [146.0–177.5] |
ZD | 68.9 | 111.8 [109.9 – 114.0] | 116.8 [113.1–119.6] | 117.2 [114.0–120.2] | 164.5 [147.4–171.9] |
N | 105.2 | 132.5 [122.4–138.5] | 139.5 [127.3–146.3] | 137.1 [125.7–43.7] | 181.0 [159.0–191.9] |
Cooling Energy Use (kWh/m2) | |||||
ZA | 57.5 | 67.1 [62.3–72.5] | 70.7 [64.8–76.9] | 69.6 [64.1–75.5] | 91.1 [80.2–99.8] |
ZB | 67.0 | 83.2 [76.8–86.1] | 87.3 [79.8–90.8] | 85.8 [78.6–89.2] | 110.6 [98.1–115.9] |
ZC | 50.8 | 70.5 [66.8–74.2] | 72.8 [68.5–76.8] | 72.1 [67.9–76.0] | 93.1 [82.4–99.2] |
ZD | 44.6 | 67.5 [66.4–68.8] | 70.2 [68.1–71.9] | 70.5 [68.6–72.1] | 95.8 [86.5–99.9] |
N | 60.9 | 75.4 [70.0–78.5] | 79.1 [72.6–82.6] | 77.8 [71.8–81.2] | 101.0 [89.3–106.6] |
Heating & Cooling Demand (kWh/m2) | |||||
ZA | 133.2 | 141.7 [134.3–152.0] | 147.7 [138.2–59.3] | 146.2 [137.6–157.4] | 177.2 [158.6–193.1] |
ZB | 165.7 | 183.9 [174.1–189.4] | 189.9 [177.9–196.4] | 188.4 [177.2–194.7] | 217.3 [196.9–226.6] |
ZC | 168.0 | 176.6 [170.0–182.7] | 176.6 [169.0–183.1] | 177.9 [170.5–184.3] | 184.9 [168.8–193.3] |
ZD | 212.9 | 218.7 [213.5–221.8] | 219.1 [212.4–222.5] | 221.9 [215.7–225.1] | 223.1 [207.5–229.2] |
N | 156.0 | 169.1 [160.7–175.0] | 174.0 [163.7–180.7] | 173.1 [163.5–179.5] | 198.6 [179.6–208.6] |
Heating & Cooling Energy Use (kWh/m2) | |||||
ZA | 106.4 | 102.1 [99.3–107.8] | 104.4 [101.1–110.6] | 104.2 [101.3–110.2] | 111.4 [103.7–119.1] |
ZB | 143.5 | 144.4 [140.8–147.6] | 146.2 [141.6–150.0] | 146.5 [142.2–150.1] | 148.3 [139.7–153.1] |
ZC | 198.5 | 179.4 [174.3–188.3] | 175.7 [170.9–184.5] | 178.8 [173.9–187.6] | 155.9 [148.2–163.4] |
ZD | 349.9 | 309.6 [301.6–316.7] | 303.9 [295.2–311.1] | 309.1 [300.8–316.1] | 252.5 [243.0–258.4] |
N | 144.6 | 139.5 [136.2–143.0] | 140.5 [136.1–144.3] | 141.1 [137.1–144.8] | 139.4 [131.3–144.3] |
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Droutsa, K.G.; Kontoyiannidis, S.; Balaras, C.A.; Argiriou, A.A.; Dascalaki, E.G.; Varotsos, K.V.; Giannakopoulos, C. Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings. Sustainability 2021, 13, 13005. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313005
Droutsa KG, Kontoyiannidis S, Balaras CA, Argiriou AA, Dascalaki EG, Varotsos KV, Giannakopoulos C. Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings. Sustainability. 2021; 13(23):13005. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313005
Chicago/Turabian StyleDroutsa, Kalliopi G., Simon Kontoyiannidis, Constantinos A. Balaras, Athanassios A. Argiriou, Elena G. Dascalaki, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, and Christos Giannakopoulos. 2021. "Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings" Sustainability 13, no. 23: 13005. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313005