In the COVID-19 Era, When and Where Will You Travel Abroad? Prediction through Application of PPM Model

Abstract

This study aimed to derive tourism motives and constraint factors that have changed or are newly applicable after COVID-19, and to identify the influencing relationships between these factors and complex aspects of tourism behavior intentions. For this purpose, the Push-Pull-Mooring model was used. To achieve the purpose of this study, prior literature and empirical studies were used to derive the primary measurement items through the primarily derived PPM model-based factors, and an online questionnaire survey was conducted with consumers who had had experience of overseas travel within the past two years. In total, 322 copies of the questionnaire were used for analysis. Through factor analyses, five push factors, four pull factors, and four mooring factors were derived. To understand tourism behavior intentions, each of the travel resumption times, preferred destination types, and preferred accommodation types were divided into three to conduct multinomial logistic regression analysis. The influence relationships between variables were verified to identify the changes in tourism behavior intentions caused by COVID-19, and the results indicated that some items of the PPM factors had significant influencing relationships with travel resumption times and preferred accommodation types. The preferred destination types were found to have significant influencing relationships with some items of the push/pull factors that were not found to have any influencing relationships with the mooring factors. This study is meaningful in that it presented motives and constraint factors for tourism behaviors from a new perspective based on changes in the tourism environment due to COVID-19, and the application of the PPM model and travel behavior is expected to be applied to diverse tourist behavior studies hereafter to achieve theoretical extensions.

1. Introduction

The tourism industry is an industry group that is substantially affected by various internal and external environmental factors, such as society/economy, politics, natural disasters, and infectious diseases [1]. The travel industry suffered greatly due to an unprecedented epidemic in 2015. Infectious diseases generally cause tourists to cancel their trips, and the spread of infectious diseases leads to rapid decreases in the demand for tourists, thus causing economic damage to the tourism industry [2,3,4,5]. The coronavirus that emerged in 2019 (hereinafter referred to as COVID-19) quickly became a great pandemic that was incomparably larger than the MERS or SARS epidemics that had occurred earlier, and it put almost the entire world into a pandemic situation. The consequent damage to the tourism industry has reached an astronomical number, and since there is a forecast that it will take two and a half to four years to return to the before COVID-19 situation [6], it seems difficult for the tourism industry to normalize in such a short period of time.

In particular, COVID-19 has had the greatest impact on potential tourists who are planning and considering overseas travel because of concerns regarding safety and hygiene, and it is not easy to attempt to travel in the face of new travel constraints, such as the prohibition of entry and the self-quarantine system of the destination country. Many experts predict that it will be difficult for people to return to life before COVID-19 [6], even if COVID-19 itself were overcome, and they therefore argue that market research and response strategies are necessary to prepare for the post(with)-COVID-19 era.

Recent situational changes in various aspects, such as vaccination completion and the travel bubble [7], are raising potential tourists’ expectations for the resumption of overseas travel. In this context, some large travel agencies are launching new products and carrying out marketing activities [8], which are approaching consumers who expect overseas travels with hopeful messages. As such, environmental changes different from those at the stage after the outbreak of COVID-19 have been occurring, and it can be predicted that these environmental changes might have affected tourists’ travel behavior intention. In other words, the travel environments and travel promotion elements that have changed due to COVID-19 are leading to changes in various motivating factors that have traditionally been recognized as important factors in tourists’ travel behavior decisions, thus bringing about great changes in diverse tourism behaviors and attitudes (e.g., preferred tourism types, travel constraints, preferred destinations, etc.).

Therefore, factors such as traditional tourism motives and constraint factors that exert decisive influences on tourists’ overseas travel decision-making—as has been repeatedly presented in many previous studies—should be replaced by new factors, and contemplated in consideration of the changed situations. Moreover, positive signals, such as vaccination, provide potential tourists with information about various scenarios related to travel intentions (e.g., travel timing, selection of the types of accommodation and tourism destinations, etc.), and their travel behaviors and attitudes require complex approaches tailored to the particular scenario rather than simple dichotomous approaches (abandonment or resumption of travel).

Studies in various fields, such as politics, economy, medical care, and education, are being conducted to promote the consumption behaviors of related consumers in the COVID-19 pandemic situation, but there are still few studies related to overseas travel behaviors, which are important consumption behaviors in the field of tourism. The major study topics related to COVID-19 in the field of tourism have been tourism policy and countermeasures after COVID-19 (e.g., [9,10,11]) and tourism market prospects (e.g., [12,13]), and most studies have involved the reduction in travel per se due to COVID-19 from a macroscopic viewpoint. Although some researchers have examined tourism consumer behaviors (e.g., [14,15,16,17]), as mentioned above, no studies have comprehensively considered tourism behaviors applicable to the changed environment.

There are several reasons why studies on tourism behaviors, including overseas travel intentions after COVID-19, have thus far been limited. The first is the experiential error of failure to predict a global pandemic situation like the current situation, even though the tourism industry has been one of the most heavily damaged industries. It seems that the prediction error has caused researchers to focus solely on the establishment of new countermeasures without utilizing previous studies. Second, diverse choices or options related to potential tourists’ travel intentions (e.g., resumption of travels after vaccination, resumption of travels after the termination of the quarantine period, resumption of travels after reaching group immunity, etc.) could not be presented to researchers to this point due to institutional constraints on overseas travels (quarantine period, prohibition of entry, etc.) in the early stages of COVID-19. That is, since the scenarios given to tourists were only abandoning overseas travel or converting them into domestic travels due to system (policy) restrictions, it is judged that it should have been difficult to find the justifiability of studies to identify diverse motives and constraints suitable for the COVID-19 situation and research into the relationship with travel intentions related to the foregoing. Third, the input of travel motive-stimulating factors (resumption of travel promotion, exemption from quarantine, online virtual tours, etc.) at a level for potential tourists to consider diverse options of travel intentions was delayed.

As described above, in the early stages of COVID-19, the development of alternative products was not active in the field of tourism due to the failure to predict the prolonged nature of COVID-19. However, travel-related promotions (e.g., Guam Tourism Office Facebook and Instagram, Hawaiian Airlines, etc.) and the presentation of alternative products by travel agencies and the Ministry of Tourism have recently become active. In particular, the indirect experience of overseas travels through media, such as online virtual tours and the sale of overseas travel tourism products by certain travel agencies, means the emergence of elements that stimulate various types of overseas travel that could not be seen in the early days of COVID-19, and it is judged that these changes will stimulate potential tourists’ motives for travels while somewhat affecting their overseas travel decision-making.

Over the year 2020, many people have become aware of the prolonged nature of COVID-19, and the emergence of a scenario indicating that rapid recovery from COVID-19 and the complete eradication of it worldwide may be impossible suggests the need to reconsider timely travel motives and constraint factors and studies to determine how their changes affect (overseas) travel decision-making overseas. As mentioned earlier, tourism consumer behaviors after COVID-19 can be expected to differ significantly from those before COVID-19, which suggests a need for studies from a perspective different from that of existing studies. For example, the risk perception sensitivity of potential travelers has increased due to COVID-19, and it can be inferred that, depending on the individual’s degree of uncertainty avoidance, there may be differences in travel behavioral intentions, such as determining the timing of overseas travel and determining the type of preferred destination. Therefore, to overcome the limitations of existing studies mentioned above, this study aims to derive tourism motives and constraint factors that have been changed or newly applicable after COVID-19, and to investigate the influencing relationships between these factors and the complex aspects of tourism behavior intentions.

In detail, this study has the following purposes: First, the changed tourism motives and constraint factors that are judged to affect tourism behavioral intentions in the with/post-COVID-19 era will be newly derived through literature research and an expert survey. Second, through the consideration and application of various theories that can explain tourism behavior intentions in the COVID-19 situation (e.g., protection motive theory, interpretation level theory, etc.), this study will verify how the different types of complex tourism behavior intentions of potential tourists (time to resume overseas travel, types of preferred tourism destinations, preferred accommodation types, etc.) are affected by the changes in tourism motives and the level of recognition of constraint factors. In particular, based on the fact that the decision by a potential tourist to make an overseas trip means the resumption of overseas travels that have been stopped due to COVID-19, i.e., a change in existing behavior intentions, this study applies the PPM (Push-Pull-Mooring) model—which is useful for explaining tourists’ intention to change behaviors—is applied to investigate the influencing relationships between motives and constraint (mooring) factors and tourism behavior intentions.

2. Theoretical Background

2.1. Concept of the PPM Model

The PPM model originates from migration theory, which explains the factors that cause people to move from one area to another and is currently used in diverse fields (e.g., [18,19,20]). Herberle’s [21] explanation of the factors of the migration phenomenon as push and pull factors can be said to be the first such model, in which push was a factor that made people move from the current residence to other residences and was viewed as a negative factor, whereas pull was a factor that made people move from other residences to the current residence and was viewed as a positive factor [22]. On the other hand, [23] argued that there are intermediate or obstructive factors—which are not positive or negative aspects—and said that, in addition to obstructive factors, such as moving costs and immigration laws, personal inclinations can also act as obstructive factors against movement. Thereafter, a factor called mooring was added [24], and the existing push-pull model was expanded to the push-pull-mooring (hereafter PPM) model.

Among the three determinants assumed by the PPM model in behavior changes, a push factor is a factor that makes users move to a new service due to negative elements of the existing service, while a pull factor is a factor that attracts users based on the attractiveness of the new service. Finally, a mooring factor plays a role in buffering effects in consideration of the situational and social circumstances related to individuals’ motives. That is, the PPM model comprehensively explains the consumer’s movement from one service to another [22] and provides a useful and appropriate perspective for identifying changes in consumer behaviors and intentions [18].

The PPM model derived from the push-pull paradigm has been recognized as a theory that helps understand consumers’ behavioral shifts [20,25]. Therefore, studies using the PPM model have been conducted in various fields, and several studies have been conducted in the field of the tourism industry as well. Concretely, in a study to understand aviation consumers’ switching behaviors [26], low service quality, low trust, and low satisfaction were selected as push factors; the provision of alternative opportunities, attractiveness of alternatives, and price benefits were selected as pull factors; and low prior switching experiences, involuntary selection, high switching costs, and low diversity were selected as mooring factors. In the field of hotels, to investigate the determinants of hotel customers’ switching intentions, Sun [27] composed push factors with firm characteristics, perceived risks, etc., and composed mooring factors with individual characteristics to conduct the study. In studies in the field of food service [28,29,30], perceived quality, satisfaction, satiation, and loyalty were used as push factors, while personality, variety seeking, and purchasing decision involvement were used as mooring factors. Meanwhile, in the field of online services, Chih, Wang, Hsu, and Cheng [31] composed push factors with weak connection and writing anxiety, pull factors with enjoyment, relative usefulness, and relative ease of use, and mooring factors with switching costs and past experience to conduct the study.

Although PPM is derived from the Push-Pull concept, which is often used to explain travel motives, most of the applications of the PPM model in the field of tourism have been carried out with a focus on the switching behaviors of certain consumers. Since tourists after COVID-19 require switching or changes in various tourism-related behaviors, such as the resumption of overseas travel and change in destination preference, as described earlier, the application of the PPM model is judged to be valid to achieve the purpose of this study. COVID-19 provides various obstacles or mooring factors that make tourists hesitate to conduct tourism behaviors and that cause changes in the push-pull factors that have made tourists decide to purchase travel thus far. That is, personal, social, and psychological motives and obstructive factors from various perspectives that are significantly different from those before COVID-19 appear, and there is therefore a need to verify what these various factors are and how they actually affect tourism behaviors.

The PPM model is useful for understanding changes in consumers’ behaviors or behavior intentions, and it enables complex studies of consumer behaviors that include not only motive factors but also obstructive factors. Therefore, in this study, it is judged that a push of the PPM model can be explained as an internal push factor that promotes the resumption and intention of overseas travels that have been stopped due to COVID-19 (switching from tourism behaviors centered on domestic travels to those centered on overseas travels), a pull factor can be explained as an external pull factor that attracts potential tourists to overseas travels, and a mooring factor can be explained as an obstructive factor that makes potential tourists hesitate to engage in tourism behaviors.

2.2. Application of the PPM Model

2.2.1. Push Factors

In tourism, push can be seen as a characteristic of the emotional part that occurs inside the traveler, such as the individual’s urge to escape from repetitive daily life and instinct for rest [32,33,34,35]. Push factors involve emotional characteristics that arise from the psychological causes of travelers, such as the desire for deviation and rest, and they are the inner motives of individuals, including the behavioral elements that lead potential tourists to tourism for reasons such as rest, escape, and health [36,37].

In terms of the push factors that have been traditionally dealt with in travel-related studies to date, studies have composed measurement items with covert needs such as deviation, rest, leisure culture, fame, and health, which comprise individuals’ purposes of travel (e.g., [35,36,37]), and studies that composed measurement items centering on prior travel experiences such as satisfaction with experience, accommodation facilities, and tourism resources, which are various components of travel (e.g., [38,39,40]).

The drastic restrictions on travel and leisure activities with COVID-19 have interfered with the promotion of friendships and solidarity (network) with friends and colleagues, and the repetitive and boring aspects of daily life are increasing depression. Moreover, despite the fact that safety was an important motivator for travel [41], and that concerns about safety and hygiene have increased due to the prolonged COVID-19, the foregoing are becoming causes of increases in potential tourists’ desire for travel. These environmental changes can be expected to have affected the push factors that cause tourism consumers’ travel behaviors after COVID-19, so they should be significantly different from those before COVID-19. That is, it can be said that there are limitations in grasping the changed tourism motives of consumers by applying the existing measurement items as they are, and that there is a need to introduce new measurement items. Therefore, in this study, the intrinsic motives for the promotion of participation in travels are defined as push factors, and new measurement items reflecting previous studies and consumer psychology changed after COVID-19 will be derived to conduct the study.

2.2.2. Pull Factors

Pull factors are extrinsic motivators related to the characteristics or attractive attributes of a tourism destination, and they include factors that affect destination selection [22,34]. Extrinsic motivators are those motivators that attract travelers to a tourism destination, and tourism pull motives have situational and extrinsic characteristics that affect the selection of tourism destinations, such as natural environments, historical events, facilities, and tourism infrastructure [32,33,34,35]. Tourists’ expectations and perceptions of tourism destinations, benefits that can be pursued at tourism destinations, and the images of tourism destinations are also viewed as pull factors [42]. Meanwhile, studies on the role of social media in the decision-making process applying pull factors explain that social media changes the decision-making process [43,44], and that social media particularly affects the production of related information, marketing, management, and decision-making processes more in the case of experiential products such as tourism [45]. Consumer decisions are finally made after establishing relationships with numerous content and brands through new media channels and considering and evaluating selectable brands.

Regarding the measurement items for pull factors, various kinds of attractiveness of local information have been used as major variables when conducting studies (e.g., [35,46]), and there is also a study that took an approach with physical viewpoints, such as local accessibility and facilities [47]. Meanwhile, as online information acquisition has become easier [48], consumers can access or search for new alternatives through various sources of online information (SNS, tourism promotion, etc.), which plays another role in the decision-making process [49,50,51]. Moreover, Chi, Wang, Luo, and Li [52] derived a study finding indicating that promotions, such as prices and events, affect consumers’ travel product choices.

These days, when free travel is impossible due to COVID-19, those classes of people who participate in online virtual tours is increasing [53], and various tourism bureaus and airlines are providing various types of tourism information through SNS (e.g., Guam Tourism Office Facebook and Instagram, Hawaiian Airlines, etc.). In addition, airlines are exempting all fees for travel itinerary changes and cancelations due to COVID-19 [54], and travel agencies are inducing travel reservations through promotions, such as exempting cancelations or by providing refund fees with low prices [55].

Tourism marketing activities, which have faltered for a while due to COVID-19, are being resumed, and repeated exposure of travel information through SNS is increasing potential tourists’ interest in travel. Furthermore, the preference for small group individual tours has increased over that for large package tours, and consumers’ perspectives on travel behavior decisions are changing, such as the wish to minimize contact in travel destinations. However, most of the items that have traditionally been used as pull factors (e.g., accessibility, attractiveness, price, etc.) are items that are tailored to the physical point of view and have limitations in measurement to be used as appropriate pull factors in situations where the selection between resumption and abandonment of overseas travel should be made before planning an overseas travel with a certain fixed destination since the emergence of COVID-19. Therefore, in this study, while referring to previous studies on the existing pull factors, items will be derived with an increased focus on the pull factors for overseas travel per se rather than considering pull factors based on certain overseas travel destinations.

2.2.3. Mooring Factors

The mooring factors proposed due to the limitation that push and pull factors are not sufficient to comprehensively explain consumers’ shifting behavior intentions (intentions to resume travels) emphasize the perspective that decision making for changes and suspension of existing methods shows differences according to personal dispositions and social influences [56,57]. That is, in situations where external risk factors such as COVID-19 have emerged, in addition to social influences, personal dispositions such as the disposition to avoid uncertainty may affect decision making, and individuals tend to rely on reliable external clues, such as expert advice, because those with a higher disposition to avoid uncertainty more sensitively perceive uncertain situations and try to make decisions more safely and carefully. Ha and Jang [27] and Sun [28] derived study findings indicating that individuals’ dispositions affect the switching barriers to services being used, and previous studies confirmed that, in addition to intrinsic constraints (subjective criteria), various external constraints (social elements) are also factors that affect consumers’ decision on switching behaviors [52,58].

COVID-19 has increased tourism consumers’ anxiety about safety and hygiene. The level of recognition of safety and hygiene problems may differ depending on personal dispositions and social situations, and it may act as a factor that impedes travel behaviors. Even if an individual’s desire for travel is strong, the burden of social norms and gaze can act as an obstructive factor in determining travel behaviors [59,60,61], and infectious diseases such as COVID-19 become factors that interfere with travel behavior decisions in the case of persons with a strong disposition to avoid risks [62,63]. As such, various obstructive factors exist in the process through which a potential tourist determines his/her tourism behavior, and it can be predicted that the person’s sensitivity will be very high, particularly at a time when the world is exposed to travel risks due to COVID-19. It can therefore be said that finding out what factors interfere with decisions in the process through which potential tourists’ motives for travel lead to travel behaviors and the extent to which the factors affect actual travel behaviors is very important for future studies on tourism consumer behaviors. This study will add mooring factors that have not been verified in the existing push-pull model to attempt a complex tourism consumer behavior study.

2.3. Travel Behavior Interntion

2.3.1. Travel Intention and Time

Since tourists’ decision-making processes are complex and multifaceted [64,65,66,67,68], to understand the characteristics of tourists’ selection behaviors, it is important to first understand the consumption behaviors of tourists. Potential tourists go through many stages until making a final decision [69], and in this process, the decision is affected by travel stimulating factors, external environmental factors, personal/social determinants, and the natural and characteristic factors of the destination [70]. In particular, external risk factors that cannot be controlled by an individual, such as viruses, are known to have substantial effects on travel behavior decision making [71,72,73]. Therefore, among the travel behavior intentions related to this study, the most basic forms are those regarding whether overseas travels are planned (intention to resume travel) and, if they are planned, what the appropriate times by scenario (time to resume travel resumption) are. It is predicted that the differences in personal levels of the diverse PPM-related factors mentioned earlier will have differential effects on the intention to resume travel and the determination of the time to resume travel.

2.3.2. Decision about the Type of Destination

When tourists choose a destination, they are affected by the images of destinations [74,75], the attributes of destinations [76,77,78], and cognitive distances [79]. Moreover, when selecting a tourist destination and an accommodation type, tourists select the most optimal destination while considering complex factors, such as individuals’ tourism dispositions, the attributes of tourism destinations, and the types of travel [80]. In general, tourists tend to set the least risky destination as their tourist destination [81], and in cases where overseas travel has been planned, an outbreak of an infectious disease affects the selection of the destination and travel behaviors, thus either changing the destination or abandoning the travel altogether [82,83,84]. That is, a tourist destination may become an undesirable destination if the tourist’s perceived risk of situational constraints or obstacles is high [85], and an alternative destination is therefore selected.

2.3.3. Selection of Accommodation Type

Meanwhile, since the quality of a healthy life has emerged as a topic in the 21st century, the concept of wellness has been introduced to the leisure and tourism sector; as a result, the preference for eco-friendly spaces has been increasing to pursue a natural life, recover stability, and relieve stress [86,87], which also affects the selection of tourism destinations and accommodation types. Moreover, the spread of COVID-19 has brought about changes in travel behaviors, such as small-scale travels and nature-friendliness due to unprecedented changes in the social environment, such as social distancing and travel restrictions, and the restrictions on overseas travels have been shown to continuously increase the use of alternative personal accommodation facilities, such as camping trips, and revitalize domestic travel [88]. Consequently, this study is expected to show differential results for overseas travel intentions and times, preferred accommodation types, and preferred destination types related to travel behaviors according to the levels of recognition of various factors derived based on PPM.

3. Study Method

3.1. Derivation of Primary Factors of the PPM Model

One of the main purposes of this study is to derive factors that affect behavioral intentions related to overseas travels—that is, motives and constraint factors—reflecting the tourism environment changed by COVID-19. This study does not deny the motives and constraint factors that have traditionally been used in existing tourism behavior studies, and it is clearly stated that the purpose of this study is to derive the motives and constraint factors magnified in the COVID-19 era from the existing major factors. To derive the major factors, primary measurement factors were derived by referring to various reports and literature studies based on previous studies, and the items were refined through expert interviews. The purpose of this study is to verify comprehensive behavioral intentions (e.g., Will you travel overseas? In which cases?) instead of behavioral intentions for visits to certain overseas tourism destinations (e.g., New York, Paris, etc.), some factors frequently mentioned among the traditional motives and constraint factors (e.g., the images of tourism destinations among pull factors, convenience of access, etc.) were removed in deriving the primary PPM factors.

When the PPM factors that are primarily derived are examined, it can be seen that, in the case of push, in addition to factors such as knowledge-seeking and escape from routine that have been mentioned as basic motivators for travel decisions, items such as travel thirst and COVID-depression amplified due to COVID-19 were added, and economic surplus items were also derived in consideration of the increase in the desire for travels due to the economic surplus accumulated as a result of the sharply decreased consumption for travels and leisure activities, as has frequently been discussed in various trend and policy reports. In the case of pull factors, factors related to inducing through the emphasis of changes in the tourism destinations into non-contact service tourism destinations and nature-friendly tourism destinations as well as enhanced hygiene in recognition of the recent COVID-19 and various promotions (pre-purchase price discount, cancelation fee exemption, etc.) were included, and specifically, to understand the effects of overseas travel destinations and tourism activities obtained through image-based media promotion such as on-line virtual travel, which has recently been established to increase travel demand, and various SNSs were newly added.

Lastly, mooring factors included travel constraint factors that have traditionally been mentioned as obstructive factors to travel decisions, and factors that make potential tourists hesitate regarding their decision to travel abroad were derived based on various theories (protection motivation theory, risk aversion theory, uncertainty, and situational factors) that affect travel decisions based on factors related to the increased risk of and worry about health due to COVID-19.

3.2. Study Hypothesis Setting and Study Model

For this study, the following research hypothesis was derived, and the research model is shown in Figure 1.

3.2.1. PPM and Overseas Travel Intention

Regarding travel decision-making, previous studies indicated that infectious diseases such as viruses affect overseas travel decision-making processes [89], and that the possibility of the occurrence of physical or emotional violence acts as travel anxiety, causing potential tourists to predict risk potentials and collect information before choosing between proceeding with the planned travel or canceling the travel [90,91]. In addition, [70] set motivation, needs, and expectations as personal and social determinants of travel behaviors and stated that these factors are affected by travel stimulation, tourists’ confidence, images of tourism destinations, previous experience, and economic constraints (cost, time).

Meanwhile, according to the construal level theory, people’s perceptions may vary according to psychological distances, and they come to have high-level constructions when the psychological distances are long, whereas they come to have low-level constructions when the psychological distances are short [91,92,93], where high-level constructions refer to broad thought processing focused on more abstract and general attributes, while lower-level constructions refer to thought processing focused on concrete and immediate attributes leading to narrow and peripheral decision making [94,95,96]. In other words, high-level constructions refer to the final result of goal achievement, i.e., the desirability attribute, while low-level constructions refer to the feasibility attribute, which indicates the degree of difficulty of methods to achieve the goal. If the construal level theory is related to travel decision-making, high-level constructions can be linked to decision-making focused on expectations from, necessity of, and satisfaction with travels, while lower-level constructions can be linked to immediacy and possibility. That is, in travel consumers’ travel decision making, the level of construction may vary according to the psychological distance to the travel destination based on PPM factors, while behavioral responses and choice (travel time) may vary according to the level of construction.

As has been examined in previous studies, many steps and factors affect the decision-making process that consumers use to make travel decisions, and it must be difficult to decide to repurchase overseas travel under circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, according to the latest report [97,98], South Koreans’ interest in and intentions toward overseas travel are gradually recovering. It can therefore be expected that there is a thirst for overseas travel due to the control period having been prolonged longer than initially thought, and hopeful news, such as the news about vaccine development, brought about positive expectations. Therefore, this study aims to identify under which risk reduction situations potential tourists consider overseas travel decisions, divides overseas travel intentions (time of resumption) into three scenarios referring to situations frequently mentioned in the existing literature and travel-related study reports to analyze overseas travel intentions, and establishes the following hypotheses.

H1: 

After COVID-19, PPM factors will affect the time to travel resumption.

H1-1: 

After COVID-19, push factors will affect the time to travel resumption.

H1-2: 

After COVID-19, pull factors will affect the time to travel resumption.

H1-3: 

After COVID-19, mooring factors will affect the time to travel resumption.

3.2.2. PPM and Selection of the Type of Travel Destination

Potential tourists who are planning trips explore and evaluate alternatives to make final decisions that satisfy the purpose of their travel [80]. That is, a traveler’s decision-making process involves a decision-making process by the traveler to select and purchase a travel to satisfy his or her desire, and it can be seen as a decision-making of a multifaceted phenomenon that occurs in the process of moving to and staying at the destination [99]. Tourists’ tourism destination selection behaviors are affected by values, attitudes, motives, personal characteristics, and beliefs in the internal social psychological process, along with situational constraints, including cognitive distance, budget, time, and health. In addition, external stimulating factors are included in the attributes of tourism destinations, and tourists’ preference or intention to use is formed according to his/her perception of the attributes of tourism destinations to directly affect the selection of tourism destinations [100,101,102]. COVID-19 has brought about many changes to the lifestyles and travel methods of travel consumers; as a result, travel consumers were expected to prefer nature-oriented open tourism destinations or tourism destinations where they could enjoy scenery, and their healing and health could be guaranteed through clean air [103,104].

Therefore, in this study, with the question of whether there may be changes in the types of travel destinations preferred by potential tourists after the emergence of COVID-19, based on previous studies, travel destinations were divided into three types—nature-oriented, city-centered, and history and culture types—to proceed with the study. To foster a clear understanding of the above travel destination types, when a questionnaire survey was conducted with actual potential tourists, a description of the destination types and images to represent the types were provided together.

H2: 

After COVID-19, PPM factors will affect the decision of travel destination.

H2-1: 

After COVID-19, push factors will affect the decision of travel destination.

H2-2: 

After COVID-19, pull factors will affect the decision of travel destination.

H2-3: 

After COVID-19, mooring factors will affect the decision of travel destination.

3.2.3. PPM and Selection of Accommodation Type

According to [105], new travel trends, such as experiencing non-daily life in daily life and living like a local, are mentioned, and these trends are making people hesitate to choose accommodation types, such as typical hotels and resorts. Further, due to COVID-19, people have tended to avoid densely populated places and crowded travel destinations [106], small-scale individual travel has increased, tourism activities such as nature and scenery appreciation and rest and recreation have become more preferred [107], and the demand for outdoor-type tourism has expanded, thus leading to the beginning of a non-contact service camping craze [108]. Meanwhile, as a new wave of slow tourism has been leading tourism after COVID-19, the tendency to pursue health and wellness has intensified, and in the case of Chinese travelers, preferences for independent/free travels (FIT) and luxury travel have been predicted [109].

During the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, due to phenomena such as the minimization of face-to-face contact and social distancing along with concerns about health and hygiene, people came to increasingly avoid places where many people gather [110] and prefer independent and open eco-friendly places. In addition, due to these phenomena, many changes are taking place in tourists’ accommodation types, such as the vogue of camping and auto camping brought about by the phenomena. To verify the changed tourism behaviors, the accommodation types that are preferred in the post-COVID-19 era should be analyzed.

When various reports and presentation materials are comprehensively seen, increases in the demand for health-seeking travels, outdoor-type travels, and nature-friendly travels are expected as representative changes in tourism behaviors, along with increased interest in safety and hygiene due to COVID-19. It can be inferred that the trend might have affected not only the selection of tourism destinations but also the selection of accommodation types. To comprehensively reflect previous studies and recent travel trends, this study manipulated the types of accommodations into three types—city hotel type, resort type, and guest house type (pension/shared accommodation)—to proceed with the study.

H3: 

After COVID-19, PPM factors will affect the selection of accommodation types.

H3-1: 

After COVID-19, push factors will affect the selection of accommodation types.

H3-2: 

After COVID-19, pull factors will affect the selection of accommodation types.

H3-3: 

After COVID-19, mooring factors will affect the selection of accommodation types.

3.3. Study Produre

In this study, the aim was to apply a PPM model that could comprehensively verify motives and obstructive factors to elucidate the behavioral intentions of tourism consumers that changed after COVID-19. To achieve the purpose of the study, literature studies and empirical studies were conducted as study methods, and based on the PPM model-based factors derived first, more concretized motives and constraint (mooring) factors were obtained through expert meetings. The subjects of analysis in this study were limited to consumers who had traveled overseas within the past two years and potential tourists who had not traveled abroad since the time of the spread of COVID-19 (as of January 2019) to proceed with an online questionnaire survey.

3.4. Mesurement Tools and Analysis Methods

As examined earlier, to examine the influencing relationships between tourism motives and behavioral intentions after COVID-19, the changed measurement items should be derived first. To that end, items were extracted from the literature studies of previous studies and various reports. The questionnaire to be used in this study was composed of (1) items to determine the demographic characteristics of the participants, (2) items to measure tourism motives, and (3) items to measure travel intentions. Regarding the measurement items used in this study, primary items were derived based on previous studies, items were extracted through data such as various documents and reports to derive additional items for tourism motives and constraint factors that had been changed after COVID-19, and final items were derived through expert interviews.

Regarding the major analysis methods, first, a consumer questionnaire survey was conducted using the extracted items. Then, for the final analysis, a frequency analysis was conducted to identify demographic characteristics, and a correlation analysis was conducted to identify the causes between variables that secured unidimensionality. At this point, a logistic regression analysis was performed to verify the influencing relationships between variables. Logistic regression analysis is used when there are two or more dependent variables, which are qualitative, and since the dependent variable used in this study consists of four variables (travel intention, destination type, and accommodation type), multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed. The PPM measurement items and questionnaire items were modified and used according to the purposes of this study by referring to previous studies (

Table 1. Measurement items.

PPM Model	Factor and Theory	References
Push	Thirst for overseas travel	[111,112]
	Recollections	[113]
	Optimistic disposition	[114,115,116,117]
	COVID-depression and stress	[118,119]
	Economic surplus	[119]
	Knowledge pursuit	[120,121]
Pull	Efforts to improve hygiene	[116,122]
	Experiential pursuit	[42]
	Events and promotions	[52,55]
	Media exposure (SNS, TV, etc.)	[42,44]
Mooring	Risk perception	[71,72,123,124,125]
	Subjective norm	[59,60,61,116]
	Risk aversion disposition	[62,63,71,72,73]
	Uncertainty	[58,126,127,128,129]

).

4. Analysis Result

4.1. Demographic Analysis

To achieve the purposes of this study, an online questionnaire survey was conducted from 18 to 24 January 2022, through a specialized research company with consumers who had traveled abroad within two years before COVID-19. To minimize bias among respondents, a method of quota sampling that divides gender and age equally was used, and 322 copies were ultimately used for the analysis. Frequency analysis was conducted to determine the general characteristics of the respondents, and the concrete results are presented in

Table 2. Demographic analysis.

Characteristic		N	Ratio (%)	Characteristic		N	Ratio (%)
Gender	male	162	50.3	Marriage	married	192	59.6
	female	160	49		single	125	38.8
Age	20~29	64	19.9		others	5	1.6
	30~39	61	18.9	Career	office job	158	49.1
	40~49	67	20.8		housewife	34	10.6
	50~59	62	19.3		student	31	9.6
	over 60	68	21.1		sales, service	28	8.7
Education level					professional job	18	5.6
	≤high school	49	15.3		others	16	5.0
	university	225	69.9		retired	14	4.3
	graduate school≤	48	14.9		soldier	9	2.8
Number of children	none	148	54		technician	8	2.5
	1	42	13		production worker	6	1.9
	2	109	33.9	Time of last travel	2018	117	36.3
	3	21	6.5		2019	153	47.5
	4	1	0.3		2020	45	14.0
	over 5	1	0.3		2021	7	2.2
Monthly income (USD)	none	13	4.0	Travel experience over the last 10 years (average)	1 time	169	52.5
	below 1000	19	5.9		2 times	91	28.3
	below 2000	30	9.3		3 times	18	5.6
	below 3000	66	20.5		4 times	8	2.5
	below 4000	51	15.8		5 times	17	5.3
	below 5000	42	13.0		6 times	6	1.9
	below 6000	37	11.5		7 times	3	0.9
	below 7000	21	6.5		8 times	1	0.3
	below 8000	18	5.6		more than 10 times	9	2.8
	over 9000	25	7.8
TOTAL						322	100

.

4.2. Reliablility and Validity Analysis

For this study, the PPM model was used as an independent variable, factor analysis was conducted to analyze the reliability and validity of each variable, and Cronbach’s α values were measured to verify the reliability of the measurement tool. The factor loading was limited to 0.5 or more.

4.2.1. Push Factors

Factor analysis of the push factors was conducted; as a result, five final factors were derived, and the factor loadings were shown to be 0.565~0.883. In addition, all the reliability coefficients by factor exceeded 0.7, excluding the coefficient of economic surplus, indicating that reliability was secured. The details are shown in

Table 3. Results of push factor reliability and validity analysis.

Factor	Item	Component
		Factor Loading	Eigen Values	Variance (Cumulative)	Cronbach’s α
Thirst for overseas travel	After COVID-19, I have had thirst for overseas travels.	0.883	6.811	18.485	0.906
	After COVID-19, my desire to travel abroad has been growing.	0.879
	I am sorry that I can’t travel abroad after COVID-19.	0.814
	I would like to have new experiences through overseas travels.	0.792
	Memories of past overseas travels before COVID-19 come to mind frequently.	0.600
Depression and stress	I feel depressed due to COVID-19.	0.855	3.010	15.450 (33.936)	0.883
	I am not motivated in anything after COVID-19.	0.844
	I lack vitality in life due to COVID-19.	0.838
	My stress has built up due to COVID-19.	0.830
	I am sorry that I cannot do leisure activities to refresh myself due to COVID-19.	0.709
Recollection and knowledge pursuit	When I have come back from travelling, I organize information on the places I visited.	0.814	2.276	14.164 (58.504)	0.850
	I seek new knowledge through travel.	0.763
	I satisfy my curiosity about tourism destinations through travels.	0.646
	I often see photos of my overseas travels before COVID-19.	0.637
	I often talk with my acquaintances about my overseas travel experiences before COVID-19.	0.597
	I like new experiences through travels.	0.565
Optimistic disposition	Even if I travel abroad, I won’t be easily infected with the virus.	0.875	1.745	10.404 (58.504)	0.757
	I am not much scared of infection with the coronavirus.	0.773
	The level of quarantine in foreign countries is reliable.	0.686
	If I follow the quarantine rules well, I will not get infected.	0.679
Economic surplus	Travel-related expenses have decreased since COVID-19.	0.756	1.249	7.111 (65.614)	0.532
	Budget for leisure (tourism) activities after COVID-19 is ready.	0.666
	Overall consumption expenditures have decreased overall since COVID-19.	0.647
KMO = 0.845 Bartlett’s sphericity test: 4176.818 df = 253 p = 0.000

.

4.2.2. Pull Factors

Factor analysis was conducted with the pull factors, and as a result, four final factors were derived. The factor loadings were shown to be 0.456~0.825, and all the confidence coefficients by factor were shown to exceed 0.8. Therefore, high reliability was secured. The details are shown in

Table 4. Results of pull factor reliability and validity analysis.

Factor	Item	Component
		Factor Loading	Eigen Values	Variance (Cumulative)	Cronbach’s α
Experiential pursuit	I would like to experience local culture (festival, event, etc.) abroad.	0.825	6.881	40.479	0.835
	I would like to do shopping overseas to buy local specialties, etc.	0.776
	I would like to eat local food abroad.	0.730
	I would like to do unique (recreational) activities for experience abroad.	0.711
Efforts to improve hygiene	Overseas countries have good quarantine policies for tourism destinations.	0.925	2.784	16.379 (56.858)	0.899
	Overseas countries have well established tourism safety guidelines.	0.883
	Overseas countries are making sufficient efforts for quarantine activities.	0.845
	In overseas countries, vaccination is carried out smoothly.	0.805
Media exposure	I am fascinated when I see online/offline promotions (for overseas travel destinations).	0.857	1.298	7.634 (64.490)	0.871
	Online/offline promotions (for overseas travel destinations) attract my attention.	0.829
	When I see overseas travel destinations featured on TV, I become immersed.	0.675
	When I watch overseas videos, I want to go abroad.	0.523
	New information on overseas travel destinations seen through SNS, etc. makes my heart flutter.	0.521
	I become curious about places that have served as a backdrop for a movie, drama, etc.	0.456
Events and promotions	Advance purchase discounts for some overseas travel are attractive.	0.856	1.182	6.950 (71.441)	0.886
	Flexible product policies related to overseas travel products (e.g., exemption from refund fees) are attractive.	0.844
	My interest grows when I see various promotions related to overseas travels (discounts on air tickets, travel products, etc.)	0.753
KMO = 0.885 Bartlett’s sphericity test: 3440.803 df = 136 p = 0.000

.

4.2.3. Mooring Factors

Factor analysis of the mooring factors was conducted, and as a result, four final factors were derived, and the factor loadings were 0.487~0.795. Moreover, all the reliability coefficients by factor were shown to exceed 0.7, so reliability was secured. The details are shown in

Table 5. Results of mooring factor reliability and validity analysis.

Factor	Item	Component
		Factor Loading	Eigen Values	Variance (Cumulative)	Cronbach’s α
Risk perception	I know that personal hygiene is important in preventing infectious diseases.	0.795	7.212	18.816	0.814
	I know that my infection is dangerous to others.	0.792
	I know the risk of viral infection.	0.766
	I frequently check information on infectious diseases.	0.645
Subjective norm	If I go on an overseas trip now, people around me will evaluate it negatively.	0.863	1.833	15.702 (34.518)	0.866
	People around me are negative about going on an overseas travel now.	0.834
	I care about the views of people around me about going on an overseas trip now (COVID-19 era).	0.812
	If you travel abroad and become infected, it is an act that harms the people around you.	0.602
Risk aversion disposition	I prefer travel destinations that have been verified by others.	0.742	1.439	14.561 (49.079)	0.797
	I prefer to plan my travel in advance so that it goes perfectly.	0.697
	I prefer travel destinations with strict hygiene.	0.659
	I prefer travel destinations where safety (physical, body) is ensured.	0.606
	Even if I would like to go, I do not go to the restricted travel areas.	0.561
	Even if I would like to go, I do not go to areas with a high travel warning level.	0.487
Uncertainty	If I travel abroad now, the locals will not be favorable to me.	0.745	1.276	12.818 (61.898)	0.737
	If I travel abroad now, I will be exposed to the risk of infectious disease.	0.672
	It would be too expensive to travel abroad now.	0.593
	If I travel abroad now, I won’t be able to enjoy it sufficiently.	0.589
	A new mutant virus (e.g., Omicron) of COVID-19 may spread.	0.542
KMO = 0.884 Bartlett’s sphericity test: 2974.904 df = 171 p = 0.000

.

4.3. Hypothesis Verification

4.3.1. Effects of PPM Factors on Travel Intentions (Travel Resumption) after COVID-19

To verify the effects of PPM on travel behavior intentions (resumption of travel), three measurement variables were set: as ‘as soon as possible’, ‘after the end of COVID-19′, and ‘after the development of a therapeutic agent and the formation of herd immunity at the destination’, and multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted. The multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that Cox*Anell = 31.7% and Nagelkerke = 38.7%. As a result of identifying those variables that significantly affect travel resumption time, the dependent variable, among the independent variables, it was found that, among push factors, stress had a statistically significant positive (+) effect at the p < 0.05 level. This means that the probability of travel resumption (as soon as possible) is 2.105 times higher than the reference variable (after the end of COVID-19) in the case of push (stress). It can be interpreted that whenever stress increases by 1, the probability of wanting to go on travel as soon as possible will increase by 2.105 times.

Among the pull factors, experiential pursuit, media exposure, and events were found to have significant positive (+) effects at the p < 0.01 level. This can be interpreted as indicating that, as experiential pursuits, media exposure, and events increase, the probability of resuming overseas travels after developing therapeutic agents and herd immunity will increase as well. Among the mooring factors, risk perception (p < 0.001), risk aversion disposition, and subjective norms were found to have statistically significant negative (-) effects at the p < 0.01 level. First, as the subjective norm and risk-avoidance disposition increased, the probability of resuming overseas travel as soon as possible became lower than that of the reference variable (after the end of COVID-19), and as risk perception, subjective norms, and risk aversion disposition increased, the probability of resuming overseas travels after herd immunity became lower compared to that of after the end of COVID-19. Hypothesis 1 was partially accepted. The details are shown in

Table 6. Results of logistic regression analysis between PPM factors and travel behavior intention (time to travel resume).

	Independent Variable	B	S.E.	Wald	df	p	Exp(B)	Exp(B): 95%
								min	max
1. As soon as possible (n = 24)
push	(constant)	−3.568	0.483	54.605	1	0.000
	Thirst for overseas travel	0.554	0.461	1.444	1	0.230	1.740	0.705	4.294
	Stress	0.745	0.351	4.503	1	0.034	2.105 *	1.058	4.188
	Recollection and knowledge pursuit	0.775	0.440	3.102	1	0.078	2.170	0.916	5.139
	Optimistic disposition	0.299	0.350	0.728	1	0.394	1.348	0.679	2.678
	Economic surplus	−0.316	0.335	0.890	1	0.346	0.729	0.378	1.406
pull	Experiential pursuit	0.297	0.472	0.395	1	0.530	1.345	0.534	3.392
	Effort to improve hygiene	0.712	0.405	3.088	1	0.079	2.039	0.921	4.514
	Media exposure	0.528	0.380	1.935	1	0.164	1.696	0.806	3.572
	Event and promotion	0.120	0.367	0.106	1	0.744	1.127	0.549	2.315
mooring	Risk perception	−0.517	0.313	2.720	1	0.099	0.597	0.323	1.102
	Subjective norm	−1.268	0.274	21.392	1	0.000	0.281 ***	0.164	0.481
	Risk aversion disposition	−0.862	0.315	7.485	1	0.006	0.422 **	0.228	0.783
	Uncertainty	−0.285	0.296	0.922	1	0.337	0.752	0.421	1.345
2. Develop a medicine and herd immunity (n = 93)
push	(constant)	−0.838	0.145	33.277	1	0.000
	Thirst for overseas travel	0.112	0.191	0.344	1	0.557	1.119	0.769	1.627
	Stress	−0.142	0.148	0.916	1	0.339	0.868	0.649	1.161
	Recollection and knowledge pursuit	−0.133	0.172	0.596	1	0.440	0.876	0.626	1.226
	Optimistic disposition	−0.013	0.171	0.006	1	0.939	0.987	0.706	1.380
	Economic surplus	0.197	0.153	1.643	1	0.200	1.217	0.901	1.645
pull	Experiential pursuit	0.770	0.220	12.187	1	0.000	2.159 ***	1.401	3.326
	Effort to improve hygiene	0.095	0.166	0.324	1	0.569	1.099	0.793	1.523
	Media exposure	0.469	0.172	7.406	1	0.006	1.598 **	1.140	2.239
	Event and promotion	0.488	0.182	7.197	1	0.007	1.629 **	1.141	2.327
mooring	Risk perception	−0.622	0.163	14.621	1	0.000	0.537 ***	0.390	0.738
	Subjective norm	−0.463	0.165	7.833	1	0.005	0.630 **	0.455	0.871
	Risk aversion disposition	−0.499	0.164	9.211	1	0.002	0.607 **	0.440	0.838
	Uncertainty	−0.073	0.145	0.255	1	0.613	0.929	0.700	1.234
Model fit	−2LL = 413.340 model X² = 119.153 df = 28 p = 0.000
	Cox and Snell R² = 0.317 Nagelkerke R² = 0.387
(reference variable) 3. After the end of COVID-19 (n = 196) *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05

.

4.3.2. Effects of PPM Factors on the Decision of Travel Destinations after COVID-19

Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to verify the effects of PPM on travel behavior intention (preferred travel destination type). Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that Cox*Anell: 13.7% and Nagelkerke: 15.5%. As a result of identifying variables that significantly affected the preferred types of travel destinations, which are the dependent variable, among the independent variables, the higher the overseas travel thirst (push) and the higher the risk aversion disposition (mooring), the higher the probability of preferring city-centered tourist destinations compared to the reference variable (history and culture type), and as media exposure (pull) increased, the probability of choosing a city-centered tourist destination decreased. Hypothesis 2 was partially accepted. The details are shown in

Table 7. Result of logistic regression analysis between PPM factors and travel behavior intention (preferred type of travel destinations).

	Independent Variable	B	S.E.	Wald	df	p	Exp(B)	Exp(B): 95%
								min	max
1. Nature-oriented (n = 143)
push	(constant)	0.484	0.142	11.660	1	0.001
	Thirst for overseas travel	−0.146	0.182	0.638	1	0.425	0.864	0.605	1.236
	Stress	0.163	0.147	1.235	1	0.266	1.178	0.883	1.571
	Recollection and knowledge pursuit	0.161	0.174	0.860	1	0.354	1.175	0.836	1.651
	Optimistic disposition	−0.026	0.174	0.022	1	0.882	0.974	0.693	1.369
	Economic surplus	−0.007	0.148	0.003	1	0.960	0.993	0.742	1.327
pull	Experiential pursuit	−0.063	0.196	0.105	1	0.746	0.939	0.639	1.378
	Effort to improve hygiene	0.022	0.168	0.018	1	0.894	1.023	0.736	1.421
	Media exposure	−0.154	0.166	0.852	1	0.356	0.858	0.619	1.188
	Event and promotion	−0.298	0.163	3.330	1	0.068	0.742	0.539	1.022
mooring	Risk perception	0.081	0.153	0.280	1	0.597	1.084	0.803	1.463
	Subjective norm	−0.004	0.147	0.001	1	0.978	0.996	0.746	1.329
	Risk aversion disposition	0.192	0.147	1.713	1	0.191	1.212	0.909	1.617
	Uncertainty	0.166	0.143	1.338	1	0.247	1.180	0.891	1.563
2. City-centered (n = 91)
push	(constant)	−0.085	0.165	0.262	1	0.609
	Thirst for overseas travel	0.635	0.236	7.233	1	0.007	1.887 **	1.188	2.997
	Stress	0.280	0.171	2.686	1	0.101	1.324	0.947	1.851
	Recollection and knowledge pursuit	0.100	0.191	0.271	1	0.603	1.105	0.759	1.607
	Optimistic disposition	−0.011	0.195	0.003	1	0.954	0.989	0.675	1.449
	Economic surplus	−0.055	0.169	0.106	1	0.745	0.946	0.679	1.319
pull	Experiential pursuit	−0.384	0.227	2.846	1	0.092	0.681	0.436	1.064
	Effort to improve hygiene	0.253	0.193	1.716	1	0.190	1.288	0.882	1.880
	Media exposure	−0.497	0.188	7.003	1	0.008	0.609 **	0.421	0.879
	Event and promotion	−0.106	0.189	0.313	1	0.576	0.899	0.621	1.304
mooring	Risk perception	0.019	0.169	0.013	1	0.908	1.020	0.733	1.419
	Subjective norm	−0.054	0.161	0.113	1	0.737	0.947	0.691	1.299
	Risk aversion disposition	0.344	0.173	3.968	1	0.046	1.411 *	1.006	1.980
	Uncertainty	−0.215	0.162	1.762	1	0.184	0.807	0.587	1.108
Model fit	−2LL = 642.993 model X² = 47.457 df = 26 p = 0.006
	Cox and Snell R² = 0.137 Nagelkerke R² = 0.155
(reference variable) 3. History and culture type (n = 38) ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05

.

4.3.3. Effects of PPM Factors on the Selection of Accommodation Type after COVID-19

Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to verify the effect of PPM on travel behavioral intention (preferred accommodation type). The multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that Cox*Anell: 11.4% and Nagelkerke: 13.4%. As a result of identifying the variables that significantly affect the preferred accommodation types, which are the dependent variable, among the independent variables, first, push factors did not show any statistically significant effect at the p < 0.05 level.

Among the pull factors, experiential pursuit and media exposure were found to have significant negative (-) effects at the p < 0.05 level. That is, as experiential pursuits and media exposure increased, the probability of preferring city hotel type and resort type accommodations became lower than the probability of preferring the guest house type (reference variable). Among the mooring factors, uncertainty was found to have a statistically significant positive (+) effect at the p < 0.05 level. It was shown that as uncertainty increased, the probability of selecting an urban hotel type or a resort type exceeded that of selecting a guest house type. Hypothesis 3 was partially accepted. The details are shown in

Table 8. Results of logistic regression analysis between PPM factors and travel behavior intention (preferred accommodation type).

	Independent Variable	B	S.E.	Wald	df	p	Exp(B)	Exp(B): 95%
								min	max
1. City hotel type (n = 163)
push	(constant)	2.047	0.264	59.973	1	0.000
	Thirst for overseas travel	0.315	0.268	1.386	1	0.239	1.371	0.811	2.317
	Stress	0.237	0.213	1.241	1	0.265	1.267	0.835	1.922
	Recollection and knowledge pursuit	−0.359	0.278	1.658	1	0.198	0.699	0.405	1.206
	Optimistic disposition	−0.064	0.251	0.066	1	0.798	0.938	0.573	1.534
	Economic surplus	−0.022	0.224	0.010	1	0.922	0.978	0.631	1.518
pull	Experiential pursuit	−0.739	0.333	4.918	1	0.027	0.477 *	0.248	0.918
	Effort to improve hygiene	0.171	0.251	0.462	1	0.497	1.186	0.725	1.940
	Media exposure	−0.646	0.288	5.026	1	0.025	0.524 *	0.298	0.922
	Event and promotion	−0.455	0.278	2.675	1	0.102	0.634	0.368	1.095
mooring	Risk perception	0.364	0.232	2.447	1	0.118	1.438	0.912	2.268
	Subjective norm	−0.064	0.204	0.100	1	0.752	0.938	0.629	1.398
	Risk aversion disposition	0.076	0.203	0.141	1	0.707	1.079	0.725	1.608
	Uncertainty	0.444	0.214	4.288	1	0.038	1.559 *	1.024	2.372
2. Resort type (n = 107)
push	(constant)	1.615	0.271	35.566	1	0.000
	Thirst for overseas travel	0.172	0.267	0.416	1	0.519	1.188	0.704	2.003
	Stress	0.263	0.220	1.428	1	0.232	1.301	0.845	2.003
	Recollection and knowledge pursuit	−0.292	0.288	1.028	1	0.311	0.747	0.424	1.313
	Optimistic disposition	−0.046	0.261	0.031	1	0.861	0.955	0.573	1.593
	Economic surplus	0.127	0.233	0.300	1	0.584	1.136	0.720	1.792
pull	Experiential pursuit	−0.727	0.340	4.577	1	0.032	0.483 *	0.248	0.941
	Effort to improve hygiene	−0.139	0.261	0.284	1	0.594	0.870	0.522	1.451
	Media exposure	−0.626	0.295	4.511	1	0.034	0.535 *	0.300	0.953
	Event and promotion	−0.549	0.283	3.764	1	0.052	0.577	0.331	1.006
mooring	Risk perception	0.349	0.242	2.086	1	0.149	1.417	0.883	2.275
	Subjective norm	0.050	0.218	0.052	1	0.820	1.051	0.686	1.610
	Risk aversion disposition	0.114	0.214	0.284	1	0.594	1.121	0.737	1.706
	Uncertainty	0.512	0.222	5.297	1	0.021	1.668 *	1.079	2.579
Model fit	−2LL = 530.358 model X² = 36.384 df = 26 p = 0.085
	Cox and Snell R² = 0.114 Nagelkerke R² = 0.134
(reference variable) 3. guest house type (pension/shared accommodation). n = 32 missing value: 20 * p < 0.05

.

5. Conclusions and Implications

5.1. Summary of Study Findings

The purpose of this study was to predict the changes in tourism behavior intentions of tourism consumers caused by COVID-19. To verify the hypothesis, an online questionnaire survey was conducted with consumers who had overseas travel experience within two years before COVID-19, and the PPM model, which is known to be suitable for analyzing consumers’ behavioral shift intentions, was used. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to understand the influencing relationships between variables, and the results of the analysis are summarized as follows.

First, the influence relationships between the PPM factors and the time to resume travels were examined; the results showed that the probability to resume travels as soon as possible was higher in the group with higher stress (push) compared to the group that intended to resume travel after the end of COVID-19 (reference variable), and the probability to resume travel as soon as possible was lower when the levels of subjective norms, risk perception, and risk aversion disposition among the mooring factors were higher than they were for the reference variable. That is, the group that intends to resume travel as soon as possible is interpreted as a group that responds to the intrinsic push factors relatively more clearly than it responds to the pull factors. This can be interpreted to mean that those with higher levels of personal stress and negative emotions, such as depression due to the restrictions on external activities due to COVID-19, are highly likely to intend to resume traveling as soon as possible because the level of their intention to resume overseas travel is high. Moreover, it can be interpreted to indicate that the higher the levels of negative gazes of surrounding people toward overseas travel, risk perception, and risk aversion disposition, the higher the possibility of decreases in the intention to resume overseas travel. In other words, although motive factors, such as personal stress, act as push factors for overseas travel, negative views from surrounding people or concerns about the safety of overseas travel can reduce overseas travel intentions. Therefore, the tourism industry, which should prepare for the with/post-COVID-19 era, should focus on safety-related protocols and promotions so that potential tourists can confidently make overseas travel decisions.

Meanwhile, when experiential pursuit was preferred among the pull factors and media exposure or exposure to events such as promotions increased, the probability of choosing the resumption of travel after the development of therapeutic agents and herd immunity became higher than the probability to resume travel after the end of COVID-19. It was found that the higher the levels of subjective norms, risk perception, and risk aversion disposition among the mooring factors, the lower the probability of resume travels after developing therapeutic agents and herd immunity. Therefore, this group is interpreted as a group that responds relatively more strongly to the pull factors than to the intrinsic push factors, and it can be seen that in the case of such groups, the more they are exposed to media, promotions, events, etc., the higher the possibility of increases in their overseas travel intentions. However, this group can also be interpreted as having lower levels of overseas travel intentions when the levels of negative views of surrounding people and negative perceptions of safety are high in cases where they decide to pursue overseas travel.

Therefore, when the relationships between the PPM factors and the time to resume overseas travel are examined comprehensively, a group with strong intrinsic motives (push factors) is highly likely to wish to travel abroad as soon as possible, while a group with strong external motives (pull factors) is highly likely to wish to travel abroad when safety against the virus has been secured at a certain level. It can therefore be seen that domestic and foreign travel regulations require more rapid systemic responses to overseas travel policies in terms of personal health and stress management. However, both groups were shown to reduce their decisions to travel abroad when there were high levels of negative views of surrounding people or safety concerns that may arise when they resumed overseas travel. Therefore, the provision of safety-related information and strict hygiene and safety management, which must be considered the most in relation to potential tourists’ resumption of overseas travel, should be supported.

Second, the influencing relationships between PPM and the selection of the types of travel destinations were examined, but no influencing relationship between nature-oriented travel destinations and PPM was found. However, the results showed that the higher the overseas travel thirst (push), the higher the probability of preferring city-centered tourist destinations, and that the higher the level of media exposure (pull), the lower the probability of preferring city-centered tourist destinations compared to the probability of preferring history- and culture-type tourist destinations. The foregoing can be interpreted to mean that those with higher levels of travel thirst more strongly prefer city-centered tourist destinations with a higher possibility of experiencing exotic modern culture in a diverse manner. Therefore, in the process of replacing overseas travels with domestic travels during restrictions on overseas travels, tourism to places where contact with people can be minimized has come to account for most tourism, and this may have led to increases in the desire for city-type tourism. This finding supports the results of [15]. Although it is true that nature-oriented tourism destinations have been magnified after COVID-19, the probability of selecting city-centered type tourism destinations is increasing because, unlike domestic travels, in the case of overseas travel, considerable risks may occur when incidents such as outbreaks of infectious diseases occur in cases where the overseas travel destinations have not been equipped with systematic medical systems. It is also interpreted that the tourism trend psychology of modern people who want to use various entertainment and convenience facilities (cafes, restaurants, hospitals, etc.) in the downtown area and contact (communication) with locals might have been reflected.

On the other hand, it was found that the more media exposure was experienced, the lower the possibility of choosing a city-centered type travel destination. This is attributable to the fact related to the resumption of overseas travel, mainly to recreational tourism destinations such as Guam, Saipan, and Hawaii, proactively opened tourism markets while attempting promotions through diverse media, and the time of such promotions overlapped with the time of the questionnaire survey, so the consumers exposed to the relevant media became more interested in the recreation areas.

On the other hand, it was found that the higher the risk aversion disposition among the mooring factors, the higher the probability of preferring city-centered tourist destinations. Given this finding, potential tourists seem to recognize that city-centered areas are equipped with better quarantine and safety management systems. That is, the foregoing is interpreted to indicate that potential tourists recognize that history and culture-type tourism destinations are riskier than city-centered destinations because many tourists may visit such destinations at once, and the spaces are limited.

Therefore, when the influencing relationships between the PPM factors and the selection of travel destinations are examined comprehensively, the higher the potential tourists’ thirst for overseas travel and the higher their risk aversion disposition, the higher the possibility for them to prefer city-centered tourist destinations, and the larger the effect of media exposure on them. Since potential tourists’ thirst for overseas travel is expected to increase as restrictions on overseas travel continue and potential tourists are highly likely to prefer city-centered type tourism destinations when the restrictions are lifted, then if the ministry of tourism of each country and domestic travel agencies steadily carry out media exposure and promotion of city-centered type tourism destinations, they will be able to attract potential tourists. However, it is necessary to thoroughly prepare and arrange the management of safety and sanitation, which can be an obstructive factor in the selection of city-centered tourism destinations and the carrying out of promotions and guidance that can provide confidence in relation to the medical system and safety management of infectious diseases at the destinations.

Third, as a result of the examination of the influencing relationship between PPM and the selection of accommodation types, the influencing relationship between the selection of accommodation types and push factors could not be determined, but it was found that the higher the levels of experiential pursuit and media exposure among pull factors, the higher the probability of choosing the city hotel type and the resort type tourism destinations over bed and breakfast type tourism destinations, and that the higher the level of uncertainty among the mooring factors, the higher the probability of choosing the city hotel type and the resort type tourism destinations. These findings reconfirm the importance of experiential experiences, which is one of the characteristics of modern tourism, and can be interpreted to mean that consumers who prefer various and unique local experiences also prefer special accommodation types (pensions, shared accommodations, etc.) rather than classic accommodation types (hotels, resorts, etc.). This type of accommodation was attracting increasing interest even before COVID-19 (Korea Tourism Association, 2020), and it seems that this preference has also continued after COVID-19. Nevertheless, it was found that the probability of choosing a city hotel or resort-type accommodation was increasing because potential tourists recognize that there is a high possibility of exposure to risks if a guest house-type accommodation is used in the COVID-19 situation.

Therefore, when the relationship between PPM and accommodation type selection is examined comprehensively, it seems that tourism consumers have relatively low trust in B&B type accommodations in terms of the safety-related system for accommodation facilities, which is understood to be the part that is most important to manage for B&B type accommodations from the viewpoint of preparing for the with/after COVID-19 era. From this point of view, it can be understood that B&B-type accommodations are the most important part to manage. On the other hand, general hotels will be able to attract potential tourists by highlighting the strengths of their organizational skills and management systems, etc., and they should induce revisit by putting effort into developing elements that can provide a little newer experience to guests.

5.2. Theoretical Implications

The theoretical and practical implications of this study are presented as follows.

First, this study is significant as an early study attempting to study the tourism behaviors of tourism consumers in the environment changed due to COVID-19. Tourism products are high-involvement products, and tourism consumers have different motives for behaviors and push factors than general consumers. In particular, overseas travel, which had been practically suspended due to changes in domestic and foreign environments in response to COVID-19, has been becoming accustomed to a new situation thanks to the efforts of various countries to increase the demand for overseas travel, such as vaccination and the launch of travel bubbles, online virtual travel, and various overseas travel promotions. The changes in the environment relative to that in the initial stage after the COVID-19 outbreak are leading to changes in various motivators in decision-making related to potential tourists’ overseas travel behaviors. Therefore, this study can be utilized as basic data by related fields and researchers, as it predicted the overseas travel-related behavioral intentions of potential tourists through a review of the traditional motive factors and constraint factors that affect tourism behaviors, along with an integrated study of factors that have been newly magnified after COVID-19.

Second, this study has brought about theoretical expansion by presenting the motivators that induce tourism behaviors and obstructive (mooring) factors from a new perspective based on the changed tourism environment after COVID-19. This study overcame the limitations of existing studies that cannot expand beyond the travel motive factors that have traditionally been dealt with in previous studies (before COVID-19) and examined diverse travel behavior-inducing factors from the viewpoint that new factors that increase desires for overseas travels in the environment changed due to COVID-19 and other social environmental changes in recent years. Therefore, this study can be said to have brought about the derivation and expansion of factors that are highly applicable to situations similar to the COVID-19 situation that may arise in the future.

Third, this study presents a theoretical model coupled with the PPM model to explain potential tourists’ overseas travel behavior intentions. By applying the PPM model, which has mainly been used to predict conversion intentions for certain products, to tourism behavior intentions, this study suggested the applicability of the model to diverse tourist behaviors (e.g., the use of smart technology at tourist destinations) hereafter. Therefore, this attempt is expected to bring about theoretical expansion.

Fourth, this study attempted to examine the complex aspects of travel behavior intentions. As mentioned earlier, positive travel-related signals, such as vaccination, enable potential tourists to select diverse travel behavior intention-related scenarios (e.g., time of travel, selection of the types of accommodation, and tourism destination), unlike in the early stage after the COVID-19 outbreak; therefore, travel behavior and attitudes require complex approaches by scenario rather than simple dichotomous (abandonment or resumption of travel) approaches. Therefore, this study phased the travel time of travelers by presenting scenarios of diverse possibilities, and it provided the choices of destination, lodging, and travel types while reflecting recent trends to the surveyor, thus verifying how the choices are affected by PPM factors derived from various angles through a complex scenario so that expansion can be dealt with in further detail in future studies related to tourists’ travel behavior intentions.

5.3. Practical Implications

Along with its academic contributions, this study presents the following practical implications.

First, the findings of this study presented meaningful implications for the tourism industry and for workers. That is, by analyzing travel behavior intentions by applying the PPM model, this study provided comprehensive information on various factors that can affect the increase in overseas travel demand, ranging from simple motive (push-pull) factors to obstructive (mooring) factors. In particular, the provided factors are information from a new perspective in consideration of the current COVID-19 situation, and they can be used as useful data from a national and industrial perspective to prepare for the resumption of overseas travels.

Second, from a policy point of view, it is expected that this study will provide information on not only the increase in demand among South Koreans for overseas travel, but also from the viewpoint of the time of entry of foreign tourists. The information obtained as a result of the analysis in this study can provide important data for establishing policy about what kind of promotion and public relations will be important before the systematic resumption of overseas tourism at the national level.

Lastly, if the premise that the complete eradication of the coronavirus is impossible is assumed, the findings of this study will help travel agencies or tourism business operators who are preparing for the with/post COVID-19 era plan products with new approaches and conduct promotional activities based on what parts they should focus on to prepare and lay out strategies to attract potential tourists. Therefore, potential tourists will be provided with diverse opportunities for selection.

5.4. Limitations

Despite the theoretical and practical implications mentioned above, this study has several limitations. Since this study was conducted through a one-time survey in a certain limited period in a situation where various social and environmental changes are continuously occurring due to the prolonged nature of the COVID-19 era, there are limitations to the generalizability of the findings of this study. In addition, the possibility of environmental changes at the time when the survey was conducted to have affected the respondents’ selection cannot be excluded. Finally, despite the fact that there are parts of behavior intention-related variables, such as preferred travel type, that cannot be explained by a simple dichotomy (individual trip/package trip), this study attempted somewhat simple approaches. Therefore, more diverse studies subdivided by scenario are necessary as follow-up studies.