Participative Policy Design to Manage Droughts and Floods in an Arid Region under Changing Climate Scenarios: The Case of Baja California Sur, Mexico

Abstract

Floods can be defined as one of the most frequent and destructive disasters, that cause significant damage to people, while droughts present significant challenges, primarily to the most vulnerable communities. In consequence, not only public policies but the increased participation of communities and other sectors are crucial to manage the risk in the face of both phenomena and contribute to the construction of resilient communities. At the request of the National Water Commission of Mexico (CONAGUA) for the Regional Water Plan (PHR), we designed and applied a methodology based on a web-based consultation in conjunction with digital survey tools to understand the opinion of communities, key participants, and researchers about these phenomena. The workshops were organized in the five municipalities of Baja California Sur. Then, we performed an interdisciplinary analysis that combined hydrological considerations with the most critical social, economic, environmental, and legal components, applying the PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis. The results indicate that there is a clear and widespread awareness that floods and droughts increase the risk to the livelihoods of the population; however, there are deficiencies in different areas, which complicates risk management. Timely distribution of information and the inclusion of communities in mitigation and adaptation proposals would allow the achievement of greater success with efforts to minimize vulnerabilities and increase the resilience of the population in the face of climate extremes. This must be a collaborative work of the entire society: governmental, social, and private stakeholders.

1. Introduction

Floods can be defined as one of the most frequent and destructive disasters, that cause significant damage to people, while droughts present significant challenges, primarily to the most vulnerable communities [1,2,3]. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the Centre of Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), present floods as the most frequent disaster for the period 1998–2017, causing damage to 2.0 billion people, through 104,088 deaths, and socioeconomic impacts of USD 656 billion [4]. Globally, we can see an increasing trend of impacts caused by floods mainly driven by deforestation and higher levels of production on territories at risk, global warming, expansion of urban areas, and establishment of irregular settlements in risk areas [3,5,6].

As for droughts, they only represent 4.8% of disasters worldwide; however, they rank second in terms of the number of affected people, reaching 33% [4]. The scenarios of climate change show an expected rise in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, which may lead to an increase in flooding and more frequent periods of droughts [7,8].

In Baja California Sur (BCS), a state located in northwest Mexico, the climate tends to be dry, semi-warm, and hot in a large part of the territory (especially in the lowlands), while in the mountainous area, the climates can range from dry warm–semi-warm (Sierra La Giganta) to temperate in the upper parts of Sierra La Laguna. Average annual precipitation tends to be low, between 100 and 300 mm/year in much of the state, except in Sierra de la Laguna where it reaches up to 600 mm/year [9]. The greatest rainfall occurs in summer and as a result of the approach of tropical cyclones [3,10,11], so incidences are usually short-lived and high intensity [12]. Due to its climatic conditions and geographical position, Baja California Sur is prone to droughts [13] (Figure 1 and Table 1).

This climatological duality favors the occurrence of both floods and droughts that affect the population not only in terms of hazard but also from an economic and water consumption perspective. In the 1970s, the civil protection culture in Baja California Sur was practically non-existent. It was after the impact of Hurricane Liza, the worst state and national hydrometeorological disaster in terms of deaths, that both society and government agencies began with prevention activities in the face of these phenomena [3,9,14,15]. Subsequently, and because of the 1985 earthquake in Mexico City, civil protection agencies were created and strengthened at the national level, which has helped reduce the impact of disasters [16]. Even so, Baja California Sur has historically been vulnerable to the impact of tropical cyclones and floods, which have generated high economic costs [3,17,18].

In the case of droughts, the situation is no different. Added to the arid conditions, the management of water resources and the increased demand has led to the overexploitation of aquifers and water shortages for the population, which are exacerbated during dry seasons [13,19,20,21,22].

In this sense, state public-social policies are essential to manage the risk in the face of both phenomena and contribute to the construction of resilient communities [3,20,23,24]. In Mexico, there is an instrument known as the Regional Hydrological Program (PHR), which, based on a diagnosis, proposes short- and medium-term actions to address various problems related to water, such as: guaranteeing water and sanitation services, reducing vulnerability to flooding and droughts, preserving hydrological systems, and improving water governance conditions. At the request of the National Water Commission, a methodology is generated to develop a new Water Program for the state of Baja California Sur, considering the participation of different actors and society to define actions in the short and medium term.

Table 1. Drought conditions in August from 2004 to 2021 for each municipality.

Municipality	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Comondú				D2		D1		D2	D0	D0					D0	D0	D0	D2
Mulegé	D0		D1	D2		D1		D0			D0		D0	D0		D0	D0	D1
La Paz				D2		D1	D0	D2	D0						D0	D0	D0
Los Cabos		D0		D2		D1	D0	D2	D1
Loreto				D2		D1	D0	D2							D0		D0	D2

Notes: D0 = Anomalous dry; D1 = Moderate drought, D2 = Severe drought. Source: produced by the authors with data from [25].

Table 1. Drought conditions in August from 2004 to 2021 for each municipality.

Municipality	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Comondú				D2		D1		D2	D0	D0					D0	D0	D0	D2
Mulegé	D0		D1	D2		D1		D0			D0		D0	D0		D0	D0	D1
La Paz				D2		D1	D0	D2	D0						D0	D0	D0
Los Cabos		D0		D2		D1	D0	D2	D1
Loreto				D2		D1	D0	D2							D0		D0	D2

Notes: D0 = Anomalous dry; D1 = Moderate drought, D2 = Severe drought. Source: produced by the authors with data from [25].

Our research focuses on the implementation of a participative policy design using web-based instruments and existing research to perform a PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) analysis to propose actions and policies considering climate change predictions for the state of Baja California Sur. The objective is to compile the proposals and opinions that coincide among the participants as an input for the formulation of public policies. We are not pretending to present separately the opinion of each stakeholder, but only the proposals that reflect the common interests of these. The study area is the state of Baja California Sur, northwest Mexico, which is vulnerable to the impact of tropical cyclones and droughts.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area Descriptions

2.1.1. Climate Change Scenarios

According to [7,8], temperature in Baja California Sur will increase in a range of 1.2 (RCP 4.5) to 2.0 °C (RCP 8.5). Ref. [26] confirm proposed an increase in maximum temperatures in a range of 1.0 (RCP 4.5) to 1.4 °C (RCP 8.5). Considering the historic maximum temperatures recorded by the National Meteorological Survey (SMN), in the northern portion of the state temperatures may reach 52 °C, and between 45 and 50 °C in the southern portion.

Regarding precipitation and drought, circulation models and climate change scenarios on global and regional levels predict changes in rainfall patterns for Baja California Sur. According to [8], the forecasted changes in global weather patterns show an increase in precipitation in the equatorial and high latitudes and a decrease in arid zones and subtropical areas. These patterns are called wet-gets-wetter and dry-get-dryer. In this context and for the near future (2040), in Baja California Sur a reduction in winter-spring rains in a range from −4.2 to −10% [7,8,12] is expected. Conversely, summer rains will increase by between 6 and 18% [7,8]. The increase in rainfall during summer will be related to an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones [9,26,27]. These scenarios reflect more extreme and contrasting weather conditions for the near future (Figure 2)

Recent data published by the IPCC suggest that, in the near future, a sea level rise will occur in the range from 0.12 to 0.36 m, increasing to 0.57 to 1.5 m by 2100 [8]. Local variations may occur; however, there is an absence of data and research to quantify these. The forecasted increase may impact coastal urban developments, especially those located on low slopes. The combination of sea level rise, high lunar tides, and oceanographic phenomena such as storm surges will increase the flood risk in coastal areas.

2.1.2. Instrumentation and Early Warning

Hydro-climatological networks comprise a set of hydrometric and climatological observations and the infrastructure necessary for their operation (monitoring stations, equipment, personnel, and collection centers). The purpose of an operational and sustainable hydro-climatological network over time includes the use of water resources for water supply, electricity generation, aquaculture, navigation and recreation, control of floods in rivers and streams, studies of the deformation of riverbeds, sediment transport, and hydrological forecast.

It is from 2010 that the meteorological records show a pronounced drop in Mexico, due to the increase in inoperative weather stations and the delay in updating the databases, mainly from the information coming from stations located in areas of difficult access and roads of restricted communication [28].

Baja California Sur has 165 weather stations, of which 30 are inoperative. Nowadays, the state does not have any operational hydrometric station to record the behavior of runoffs. This panorama hinders the calibration and validation processes in the processing of the hydrological models of the region.

The territory of Baja California Sur has a high level of risk due to threats from tropical cyclones and the vulnerability of its buildings. Its geographical and climatological conditions favor the impact of tropical cyclones, which bring with them strong winds and floods derived from both intense rains and storm surges. Timely and organized prevention actions reduce damage significantly. For this reason, it is important to know the risk in a population to establish the most appropriate measures [9].

2.2. Study Design

The strategies, actions, and projects to mitigate the impacts of floods and drought were developed based on the outcome of the five Participatory Community Workshops (PCW) held during 2021–2022 with representatives from the municipalities of BCS. These were Comondú, Los Cabos, Guerrero Negro, La Paz, Loreto, and Mulegé (178 participants, see

Table 2. Number of participants by municipality of BCS.

Municipality	Participants
Comondú	19
La Paz	27
Loreto	30
Los Cabos	60
Mulegé	33
Total	178

Source: produced by the authors.

). We did not select a sample size but extended an open invitation to the population of the five municipalities. Additionally, one Workshop with Experts on the topic (34 participants) was performed, to validate the main outcomes of the PCWs.

The objective of the PCWs was to collect the opinions and comments of each municipality’s inhabitants to enrich and further specify the strategies and lines of action of each Strategic Objective. In each workshop social groups, main stakeholders, and government agencies (on municipal, state, and federal levels) participated that would be responsible for the implementation and monitoring of the proposed actions [29]. Other participants were non-governmental organizations, producer associations (ranchers, fishermen, farmers), and educational institutions.

Participation is understood as local inhabitants’ involvement in the design, implementation, and monitoring of a strategy or project [30]. The procedures and methods implemented in the consultation process were aimed to inform and gather the opinions of the communities that would be involved in the implementation of the actions. Thus, the local inhabitants can perform as active agents of the process [31].

The PCWs were collecting individual comments, but also the opinions of communities’ representatives, NGOs, and other interest groups that represent collective input.

The process of the PCWs was oriented to value diverse opinions, prioritizing minorities and vulnerable groups (women, youth, etc.) The participative policy design was based on the following key principles [32]: providing information on the topic in a language readily understandable and through accessible means to the stakeholder participants; providing data on the current situation and expected scenarios in advance of the PCWs; and respect for local traditions, languages, time frames, local knowledge, and communities’ decision-making processes.

Participative policy design is important to address complex decisions, considering specific local data, different views, and interests. This provides an opportunity for policy makers to address different sides of an issue. The inclusion of multiple interests turns community members into active agents during the implementation and monitoring of the policies, thus making the process more participatory [33].

The stakeholders, in the design of policies and strategies to manage floods and droughts, were categorized into the following types: government agencies, agriculture representatives, academic institutions, special interest groups, local community representatives, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

The methods of engagement employed played a significant role in determining objectives and indicators of the project’s success. The public participation methods used to engage with stakeholders in our project were the following:

Public virtual meetings offered the opportunity to the participants in the consultation process to express their point of view and give recommendations. At the beginning of the PCWs, a brief assessment of the topic to discuss was presented. Next, the participants provided their input: (1) Responding with some questions about the topic via Mentimeter, an Audience Engagement Platform that transforms any presentation into an interactive and engaging experience (Appendix A); (2) Speaking from the floor to express their opinions and/or ask questions.

Additionally, surveys were supplied to key stakeholders to complement the information, and to build a profile of the groups and individuals involved. These helped focus public attention on some very important specific issues.

Workshop attendees were organized into five working groups according to the strategic objectives of the PCWs and assisted by a facilitator (member of the research team) and a rapporteur: (1) Water and human rights, (2) Water and productive sectors, (3) Floods and droughts, (4) Watershed Management, (5) Governance.

The discussion took place in two stages:

Stage I. The participants responded to the following twelve key questions on hurricanes and drought.

At this stage, the impacts of extremes and climate change were identified by the assistants (e.g., drought, flooding, sea level rise, etc.) Then, the consequences of the impact were defined (e.g., drought affects crops, sea level rise affects the coastal infrastructure, etc.)

Questions were formulated by Mentimeter and the assistants responded using their cell phones. Next, the results of the answers were processed by Mentimeter and organized into tables, graphs, and word clouds.

Stage II. Discussion of results identified in stage I. The answers were presented in plenary and discussed. The strategies and actions to mitigate floods and droughts were designed by consensus. The main criteria for the discussion were the following: importance for the community safety; inclusion of vulnerable groups; generation of resilience to floods and droughts; food safety; contribution to water security; involvement of local community members; and financial and technological support (by government and/or NGOs).

Some other factors can impact the performance of the policies and strategies, such as technological innovations and new management options. Their role should be discussed and analyzed [34].

A PESTEL analysis is a framework or tool used to analyze and monitor macro-environmental factors. PESTEL is an acronym for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal. We combine this with another analytical tool, the SWOT analysis, to identify potential Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats to the policy designed. Next, we characterize each factor.

• Political Factors: We take into account government participation in strategies design and implementation. The variables are government support in financing and capacity building, as well as subsidies.
• Economic Factors: In our study the economic factors include the productive activities affected by floods and droughts, and influencing the economy’s performance and the lifestyles of communities.
• Social Factors: We explore the social ecosystems, including community perception and willingness to mitigate the impacts of floods and droughts. Variables include vulnerability, traditional knowledge, cultural trends, and participation of inhabitants in design and performance of policies.
• Technological Factors: We consider new technologies that could enhance strategies and action in the face of risk of floods and droughts. Variables include changes in irrigation and water saving technology, hurricane early warning, innovation and implementation.
• Environmental Factors: We explore the environmental influence at present and in future. Variables include climate change impacts, scenarios for sea level rise and hurricanes, and specific conditions of an arid region.
• Legal Factors: Policy design should consider the existing regulations. The changes proposed in legislation must contribute to policy performance. Factors include environmental, and health and safety regulations. Additionally, national and international legislation must be considered.
• Political factors: these include fiscal policies, and financial support and subsidies.

The results present some strategies, actions, and projects to deal with the identified problems. These results and a discussion are delivered in the next sections.

3. Results

3.1. Perception of the Local Community on Floods and Droughts

As a result of the PCWs, the participants expressed their opinions about the problems faced by the state of Baja California Sur in terms of floods and droughts.

In general, most of those surveyed participants expressed vulnerability to floods and droughts in Baja California Sur. In detail, 68% said they felt at risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone, while 69% considered it very likely to be affected by a flood. The municipality with the highest perception of security was La Paz, while Mulegé was the one perceived as the most vulnerable.

In the case of floods, the participants consider that tropical cyclones and floods are the most dangerous phenomena in the state. In this context, there are several aspects to be addressed for the improvement of resilience. Firstly, participants emphasized the need for more high-quality studies to quantify the risk of flooding and its components (hazard, vulnerability, and exposure). This arises from the unclear and undetailed information presented in the Municipal Mapping for Natural Hazards and Risks (MMNR), which are instruments promoted by the government for risk and hazard management. The main issues reported in the MMNRs are: (a) Inadequate methodologies for determining the risk, (b) Resolution of the mapping, (c) Developed by technicians and companies without knowledge about the local behavior of the natural phenomena, (d) Absence of periodic updates, (e) Complicated accessibility for the population. In this context, 89% of the participants mention that each municipality must have an updated MMNR, while 18% were unaware of the existence of these instruments.

Related to the above, the participants mentioned the importance of improvement of the climatological monitoring network. In the state, there are only 10 automated stations (EMAS), and a limited number of conventional meteorological stations (CMS). The operation and management of the CMS also complicate access to updated data. In the hydrological context, there is no automated monitoring network for floods, which complicates the prevention of incidents and the calibration of models for the delimitation of hazardous areas.

In the context of management and infrastructure, 80% of those surveyed consider that hydraulic infrastructure (retention and infiltration dams, canalizations, embankments, and dikes) is insufficient. Regarding delimitation of streams, 94% judge that it is inadequate, a situation that complicates risk management. Regarding the coordination between government orders and society, 66% mention that it is unsuitable and insufficient.

As for droughts, the population feels vulnerable to water shortages due to the overexploitation of aquifers. In this sense, 67% of the population considers that droughts generate a socio-economic impact and 77% are unaware of government programs combating them. Finally, 85% of those surveyed consider that climate change is influencing the intensification of floods and droughts in the state.

3.2. Results of the PESTEL Analysis: Human Resilience against Drought and Floods

As mentioned above, due to its geographical conditions, Baja California Sur is highly susceptible to being affected by droughts and floods. The results of the forum indicate that actions have been carried out at the state and municipal levels to limit the effects of droughts and floods; however, they have been insufficient.

Table 3. Human resilience against droughts and floods. Results from PESTEL analysis.

Internal Factors
Strengths (+)	Weaknesses (−)
Political – Organized action of farmers to manage and maintain the irrigation infrastructure. – The stakeholders see the necessary implementation of alternative economic activities in the face of insufficient water availability. – The agricultural producers have agreements to reduce the use of water since the 1990s. – University and technological institutes offer educational programs in agriculture of arid zones, water management, and disaster protection.	Political – Deficient method to define aquifer recharge. Only the water level is considered, even if it is saline or polluted. – Deficient aquifer level monitoring: sporadic, obsolete equipment, lack of resources. – Deficient management of aquifers: instead of encouraging water saving, if concessions are not fully used, the user’s right is annulled. – Lack of strategies for water saving.
Economic-financial – Competition between economic sectors (agriculture, tourism, real estate). – Community participation in agencies with access to financial resources.	Economic-financial – Inefficient management of the hydraulic infrastructure. – Inefficient use of technology and financial resources because of the weak community organization.
Socio-cultural – Population identified with agricultural activities (Municipalities Comondú and Mulegé). – Some producers have a water management culture. – Significant number of inhabitants is supporting the need for efficient water management. – Existence of water-saving technologies that the farmers are willing to use.	Socio-cultural – Lack of water culture. – Sewage discharge to streams and wetlands. – Planting crops with high water consumption.
Technological – There is water exchange between agricultural farms. – Existence of small primary water treatment plants and secondary water treatment plants for sewage water. – The big hotels own proper desalination plants. – Existence of some hydraulic infrastructure.	Technological – Insufficient hydraulic infrastructure. – Inadequate measurement at micro and macro level. – Leaks in the distribution system. – Lack of instrumentation and control. – Under-utilization of irrigation technologies.
Environmental – The water supply relies only on subterranean aquifers.	Environmental – Different periodical aquifer recharge. – Poor water quality due to saline intrusion, pollution by fertilizers, etc.
Legal – Law of Waters of the State of Baja California Sur. – Sustainable Rural Development Law of Baja California Sur. – Law of Ecological Balance and Environmental Protection of the State of Baja California Sur.	Legal – Legal standards contain obsolete methods of estimating groundwater availability. – Insufficient regulation for water management. – Insufficient fines for exceeding the permitted volume of water extraction from aquifers.
External Factors
Opportunities (+)	Threats (−)
Political – Regional Program on Water Management of the Baja California Peninsula, CONAGUA, 2022. – Institutional and political concern for environmental protection and water savings.	Political – Some federal programs do not consider the local specificities in the subsidy programs. – The federal government canceled the funds supporting recovery after disasters (cyclones, floods, and droughts).
Economic-financial – Existence of financing sources for water-saving technologies. – Possibility to access green climate funds for water-saving actions and technologies.	Economic-financial – High prices of new technologies. – Subsidies for crops with high water consumption. – Difficult access to financing (high-interest rates, collateral requirements).
Socio-cultural – Existence of environmental education and capacity building for the communities. – Availability of professional technical training for farmers. – Entrepreneurship in sustainable management of water in some sectors (agriculture, tourism). – Successful experiences in efficient use of water.	Socio-cultural – Lack of interest in training, although there are options (state university, NGOs, etc.)
Environmental – Great quantities of rainwater brought by cyclones could be stored to avoid droughts.	Technological – Insufficient implementation of innovative technologies. – Lack of actions for water harvesting.
Legal – Law of National Waters of Mexico: regulates the exploitation, distribution, and control, as well as the preservation of these waters, to achieve Sustainable Development. – Federal Law on Water Rights. – General Law of Ecological Balance and Environmental Protection. – General Law for Sustainable Forestry Development. – Legislation for environmental protection and water savings.	Environmental – Drought increase. – Flood threats. – Saline intrusion into aquifers. – Tropical cyclones affect infrastructure. – Short and medium term climate change effects. Legal – Lack of regulation of non-local investment in agriculture. – Lack of regulation of water use by tourism developments.

presents the main results of the PCWs according to the performed PESTEL analysis and shows the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT analysis).

4. Discussion

For the last decades and because of several disasters and water scarcity in Mexico, civil protection, disaster prevention strategies, and water policies have been considerably strengthened. The government (at different levels) in coordination with academic institutions and organizations has contributed to promoting laws, regulations, and actions aiming to reinforce the safety of society against floods and droughts following international environmental protocols such as Sendai and Hyogo Protocols, and Sustainable Development actions. In terms of floods, since Hurricane Liza in 1976, the rate of deaths has decreased; however, participants expressed in the forums that they do not feel safe against these meteorological events. Furthermore, they consider that the actions taken by the government and institutions have been insufficient and inadequate [35]. This can be explained by the fact that tropical cyclones generate significant impacts, especially in marginal and low-income areas where vulnerability and exposure are high [18]. Some of these areas are irregular settlements in which houses are built using recycled materials, a situation that clearly contributes to increasing the risk.

Regarding droughts, people in Baja California Sur are aware of the reduced precipitation and the scarcity of water for consumption because of the overexploitation of aquifers. There is also a growing culture around water care; however, they do not monitor drought as such and are equally unaware of the programs that the government implements. Water scarcity and pollution have been major issues in Baja California Sur. Several important cities (e.g., La Paz, Cabo San Lucas, Loreto) have limited access to fresh water (2 or 3 days a week), with some areas where it is received only once in several days, or even must be supplied by water trucks. Drought events tend to complicate the situation. Water scarcity and aquifer overexploitation has been assessed for several decades by researchers from academic institutions, non-profit organizations, companies, and society in general. Although several proposals have been suggested, such as assessing flash flood risks and providing protective measures to reduce their impacts [36], only a few have been implemented. Society demands water in quality and quantity obtained through sustainable pathways; however, the government and sections of the private sector are in favor of the installation of large-scale desalinization plants.

Land use planning actions are needed to ensure that the population is not invading high-risk areas (flood plains, coasts, riverbanks, among others), and to avoid the destruction of coastal and inland wetlands that may contribute to reducing exposure to coastal hazards (mangroves and coastal lagoons), and to protect sources of fresh water (oases). In this context, a delineation of irregular human settlements must be performed to generate a plan of relocation. According to [18] the main coastal cities in the south of the Baja California Sur present a high level of socio-ecological vulnerability to the effects of tropical cyclones, and the principal component that affects the vulnerability index is related to exposure of households. We agree with [35] that the evaluation and mitigation of flash floods effects is a crucial issue to protect properties and the lives of people. The improvement of landfills is essential to reduce pollution during intense runoff events. In many tropical and subtropical regions, mangroves reduce waves and storm surges and serve as a first line of defense against flooding and erosion. Mangroves provide critical food protection benefits in countries with lower GDPs where exposure is concentrated along vulnerable coastlines; for example, Mozambique and Bangladesh, seventh and ninth, respectively, in terms of mangrove benefits [35]. In the same sense, our results show that the protection of mangroves and oases must increase by modifying existing policies since touristic and real state infrastructure are invading these areas, especially in the south of the state. This study proposes an interdisciplinary analysis, where hydrological and socio-economic components are linked together, similar to [20].

In the matter of infrastructure, monitoring equipment must be updated, and runoff meters must be installed to obtain more detailed data that can be used to calibrate existing runoff and climatologic models in the region. In this context, authorities should implement a real-time web-based network, similar to those installed in countries like Australia [37]. Large dams may help to reduce the flow of water during intense rainfall events and as a reservoir of fresh water. Small recharge dams can be installed in the streams to reduce the power of the runoffs and to store water that can be infiltrated naturally into the aquifer. The location of the dam should be carefully evaluated [36].

More investigation is required as society considers there is a lack of information and a need for more meteorological and hydrometeorological data. As the MMNRs are produced, they are not useful since they present information that is not highly detailed, obtained with unclear methodologies, and with a scale that does not allow decision making. Furthermore, they were developed by private companies from other states without knowledge of the specific characteristics of the area, and necessary preparation to deal with these issues. Researchers and professionals from academic institutions must be responsible for the elaboration of the MMNRs using state-of-the-art methodologies and looking for strategies to make results easily accessible and suitable for decision making.

Finally, it is necessary to invest in a culture related to prevention and risk mitigation. This can be achieved by raising awareness of the importance of earth sciences in high school and college, comprehensive risk management, and preventive measures at home, work, and public spaces regarding the approach of tropical cyclones and water care.

5. Conclusions

The goal of this study was to compile the proposals and opinions that coincide among the stakeholders as input for the formulation of public policies. Accordingly, an interdisciplinary analysis combined hydrological considerations with the most important social, economic, environmental, and law components, applying the PESTEL analysis. After the definition of the main hydrological components and future climate change impacts and the conducting of the PCWs, we performed the PESTEL analysis. This was based on field research, results of the workshops, and interviews applied to key stakeholders. The community comments were gathered, respecting local knowledge and specific experience in order to be included in the policy design to tackle floods and droughts.

To attend efficiently to water-related hazards, a water policy committed to comprehensive risk management is required. The opportunities for future implementation by the Regional Hydrological Program (PHR) are to strengthen hydrological and meteorological information systems, through the modernization of the measurement infrastructure and observation. It is also planned to improve the reliability and timeliness of weather forecasts by applying new technologies and promoting the exchange of sectoral information with society. Additionally, highly marginalized municipalities will benefit from early warning systems, as well as by prevention and mitigation actions in case of emergencies.

One of the main conclusions that summarizes our idea, is that the agenda of hydrological programs, focused on the water resource, the risks associated with climate change, and extreme events, will be more efficient, with the support and participation of the local population. The opinions and perceptions of the inhabitants, reflected in this study, show that: (a) There is a clear and widespread awareness that floods and droughts are an important risk to the livelihoods of the population, (b) The society of the state of Baja California Sur has the best will to contribute towards tackling the negative impacts. Timely provision of information and the inclusion of communities will contribute to achieving greater success in the efforts to minimize vulnerabilities and increase the resilience of the population in the face of expected phenomena. We recommend elaboration of risk maps in settlements of Baja California Sur, a useful tool to know which areas and populations are threatened, and to implement efficient future evacuation plans. In this sense, the collaboration of the entire society, governmental, social, and private stakeholders is crucial.

The results of this study will help to produce strategies to prevent socio-economic loss and promote better flood and drought management. Active participation of local actors in policy design guarantees their future involvement in the implementation and monitoring of policy actions. Thus, participative policy design is strengthening resilience and reducing the impacts of extreme events, and, consequently, improving the sustainability and the wellbeing of the population.