Organic Agriculture in the Republic of Bulgaria: A Model for Sustainable Development and Diversification of Agricultural Business

Abstract

The European Green Deal creates both opportunities and challenges in the process of transition to sustainable farming models. In modern conditions, it is crucial that this transition leads to a higher degree of sustainability of a healthy and environmentally friendly food system. The role of farmers is becoming particularly prominent due to their efforts in introducing environmentally friendly agricultural practices for effective combat against climate change, protection and conservation of biodiversity and the environment. On the one hand, agriculture stands at the “front line” as regards the consequences of climate change and biodiversity loss, and on the other hand, unsustainable agricultural practices are a major factor in biodiversity loss. The aim of this study is to identify the differences or the regional specificities of an innovative agricultural model and its potential for developing and strengthening socioeconomic indicators on a national scale. The thesis of the study is that organic agriculture in Bulgaria, as a sustainable model for agricultural production, not only has the potential for development but is also an opportunity for diversification and development of agricultural business on the regional level, with a key role and priority in the national agricultural policy.

1. Introduction

The evolution of the sustainable development theory shows that it is subject to continuous enrichment, going beyond the framework of environmental economics. It has acquired an interdisciplinary nature by connecting multiple economic and non-economic sciences. Accordingly, it raises the question of such a distribution of resources between generations, whereby economic development is the result of the interaction of different forms of capital: natural, material, and social. Currently, the production and consumption models in our society are not sustainable enough. The evidence of this is all around us: climate change, declining biodiversity, increasing migration to rich countries, disparities in wealth and well-being between and within EU member states, etc.

According to some authors, sustainability means the ability of a dynamic production system to function effectively in an ever-changing probabilistic competitive environment. Sustainability is ensured with a focus on the client, innovative business models, legitimacy and legal support, knowledge and technology, and trust; it increases the flow of clients [1].

Among the various accents on the sustainability of agriculture, agroecological practices have been and will always be an ongoing topic in numerous publications of Bulgarian and foreign authors [2,3,4,5] and others. As early as the 1970s, scientists had raised an alarm that the external energy used in intensive agriculture had long since passed its ecological and economic feasibility. According to Odum, doubling the productivity of basic cereals is possible with a 10-fold increase in the cost of fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural machinery [6]. At the same time, other authors reject the ideology of sustainable development of agriculture, arguing that it lowers productivity and leads to expansion of the utilised agricultural land. Calculations by some authors indicate that sustainable agriculture cannot provide food for the expected 8 billion population of the planet by 2030 [7].

The sustainable development of rural areas in Bulgaria and the country as a whole calls for a new vision for the development of organic farming, as well as other integrated agroecological approaches. These specific practices can lead to stabilization of ecosystems, preservation, development of natural and land resources, and revitalization of the rural economy. In the last decades, rural areas have undergone considerable transformations, mainly under the impact of globalisation processes, decreasing share of agriculture in the economy, adverse ecological impacts of industrial agriculture, migration processes, etc. In the context of an intensified transformation of economic systems and the increasing necessity for sustainable development of this strategic sector of the national economy—the agricultural sector—the driving forces and the actual expectations for efficiency are aimed at fulfilment of the goals set in the reformed Common Agricultural Policy for the period (2023–2027) through the Strategic Plans of every EU member state [8].

Organic farming is a tested and proven model for sustainable development of agricultural business. The emergence and implementation of the policy for development of this type of agriculture worldwide, and in the European Union (EU) in particular, is associated with the evolution of European, national, and local development policies. An increasing number of innovative entrepreneurs are giving more importance to goals related not only to economic efficiency, but also to those related to social responsibility and environmental protection. In the modern conditions, the organic sector has already established its position in business practices, and its promotion has undoubtedly become a priority in the development of Bulgarian agriculture in the current programming period 2023–2027. Studies are made on the potential of a “sustainable model—organic farming” in certain regions in our country, but there is no comprehensive Bulgarian map of the conditions of transformation toward a sustainable economy.

The aim of this study is to identify the differences or the regional specificities of an innovative agricultural model and its potential for developing and strengthening socioeconomic indicators on a national scale. Subject of the analysis is the characteristics of organic farms in the six planning regions in Bulgaria (Northwest, North Central, Northeast, Southeast, South Central, and Southwest) in terms of certified activities and number of organic operators. Based on this analysis, conclusions and recommendations will be synthesized regarding the position of each region. To achieve this goal, the following two hypotheses will be tested: Hypothesis 1 (H1): according to the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), there are no differences in the practised organic farming activities between the statistical regions (NUTS-2), and their distribution by area (NUTS-3) is uniform; Hypothesis 2 (H2): there are differences in the practised organic farming activities between the six NUTS-2 regions, and their distribution by district (NUTS-3) is uneven, which is due to certain regularities and specificities, depending on the geographical location and entrepreneurial initiatives in the specific regions.

The thesis of the study is that organic agriculture in Bulgaria, as a sustainable model for agricultural production, not only has the potential for development but is also an opportunity for diversification and development of agricultural business on the regional level, with a key role and priority in the national agricultural policy.

2. Literature Review

Today, the concept of sustainable development is seen as a logical transition from the ecologisation of scientific knowledge and socioeconomic development that began in the 1970s. The limited natural resources, the environmental pollution, the ecologisation of business, and the introduction of environmentally friendly practices have become one of the most important problems of life, economy, and any human activity. They are the focus of attention in various scientific publications [9,10,11,12], etc.

The essential feature of this concept reveals the potential and possible choices for the main counteractions, the balancing of which could save and preserve human life at a qualitatively acceptable level. Faced with a series of challenges, such as climate change, population growth, and agricultural intensification, as well as the question of how to promote sustainable development and ensure food security, many authors are developing their ideas and paying attention to this topical issue as an important way to solve the dilemma in different countries [13,14].

The sustainable and regional development of agriculture in its various dimensions has been the focus of attention in the publications of many authors [15,16,17]. Being a large agricultural nation, China attaches great importance to agriculture and its sustainable regional development. The authors adopt theoretical reasoning about comprehensive measurement of the levels of sustainable development of agriculture and give recommendations for its future development on a specific territory [18].

A theoretical analysis of sustainable development in Bulgarian conditions has been carried out in the sense of a logical transition from the ecologisation of scientific knowledge and socioeconomic development. Substantial problems in the context of institutional reorganisations and transformation of economic systems are systematized, emphasizing the need for new approaches and for building sustainable development models. Another scientific publication argues that the choice of a model for increasing sustainability in the specific territory should be aimed at optimal utilization of the regional resources, diversification in the functional use of the territory, optimal diversification of production and economic activities, environmentally friendly business practices, and, above all, at effective interaction between institutions, local administration, businesses, and local communities, i.e., the sustainability of the rural territory means that the local regional policies should be aimed at integrated and balanced development. Other authors draw the attention to the need to take appropriate measures and actions to promote regional economic development at the municipal level [19].

The support of organic producers after Bulgaria’s accession to the EU (2007) is a topic that requires scientific research because the production of ecological food of high quality and minimal environmental footprint is of utmost importance for building a sustainable food system. When examining the problems of sustainable development in the Republic of Bulgaria and the prospects for sustainable development of business structures in rural areas, it was found that the successful development of organic production requires the application of a regional approach, as well as assistance from local authorities in order to close the production cycle on the basis of more associations, unions, and partnerships in organic production. More recent research argues that to achieve a balance in the market of short and local value chains, particularly important in providing quality and healthy food products are the benefits of direct sales, having numerous positive and multiplying effects not only for farmers but also for local communities, natural capital, and the climate [20].

The ambitious roadmap presented by the EC is based on two particularly important strategies: The Biodiversity Strategy [21] and the Farm to Fork Strategy [22]. The Farm to Fork Strategy is a leading EU food policy, which sets specific goals for the ecologisation of the sector, related to reducing the use and the risk of pesticides, reducing the use of antimicrobials, and designating 25% of agricultural land for organic farming. The above documents constitute a starting point and a guideline for increasing and achieving a fuller degree of development of the potential of the organic farming sector. The application of organic production practices in Bulgaria is favoured by the rich diversity of soils with preserved qualities by the climatic characteristics of the territory and the preserved traditional practices in the agriculture sector.

The National Plan for the Development of Organic Production by 2030 is a strategic document aimed at stimulating and uncovering the potential of organic farming in the Republic of Bulgaria [23]. It was created as a result of the general recommendations in the European Green Deal and the EU strategies (the Green Deal, the Farm to Fork Strategy, and the Plan for the Development of Organic Production by 2030 developed by the European Commission [24]).

It is evident from the literature review that organic farming is a topical subject that provokes the interest of world-class scientists. For example, many authors are paying more and more attention to its role in improving food security, to the specifics of sustainable organic farming management, the leading role of local actors in implementing the policy, and achieving the sustainable development objectives and the analysis of the stakeholders in the implementation of the overall process [25,26,27,28,29].

The contemporary challenges that organic farming is facing as one of the most widespread sustainable models are brought to the fore, as well as the prospects for its future development, in parallel with the analysis of individual countries [30,31,32,33,34,35].

Organic farming, as a more sustainable agricultural practice and an integral part of the organic production sector, is developing at varying rates across different countries. Four EU member states (France, Spain, Italy, and Germany) account for almost 60% of the organic production areas in the EU. In 2022, around 17 million hectares were farmed organically in the EU, representing 10.5% of the total utilized agricultural land. While the share of agricultural land used for organic farming in the EU has been steadily increasing since 2014, the spread of organic farming varies significantly between member states—from 0.6% in Malta to 25.7% in Austria. For Bulgaria, this figure is only 2.2%, meaning the country’s position is among the lowest. Even Greece, which has similar land areas to Bulgaria, has a much higher share of organic farming (17.2%). There are significant differences between EU member states in terms of the consumption of organic products. In 2022, it ranged from 2 euros per capita in Romania to 365 euros per capita in Denmark. These differences clearly show the uneven development of the organic products market in the EU and its connection to the purchasing power in the member states [36]. In Bulgaria, there is still no institution that collects official data on the consumption, import, and export of organic products.

The state and the potential for development of a sustainable model of “organic production” is a topic that has not lost its relevance over the years due to the ever-increasing need to minimize aggressive agricultural practices and to make a transition to sustainable production models. A number of publications repeatedly outline various problems in the production processes, the realization of organic products, the marketing in the process of formation and development of the market for organic agricultural products, the opportunities to form clusters, the certification processes, as well as the study of the attitudes of producers [37,38,39,40,41,42].

In the recent years, the Bulgarian organic production has been the subject of studies conducted by a number of Bulgarian authors who over the years have explored the essential characteristics of organic production, as well as its connections with other key economic sectors [37,43,44,45,46,47], etc. In general, organic farms are relatively small or average in size. A survey in 2020 found that 64% of them are rather small for the industry, 32% are average for the industry, and 5% are mainly intended to cater for farmers’ own needs [47]. Authors from Bulgaria summarize that the local approach and national strategic plans are crucial, but the Green Deal sets a number of ambitious goals, and some countries will face difficulties in achieving them and transforming their agricultural structure [48].

Most authors consider organic production as a multifunctional complex of activities that integrate economic and social aspects with those related to environmental protection, on the one hand, and, on the other, as an alternative for making the best decision for the organization, management, and development of farms. In other words, organic farming is a good practical method of agroecology in the form of a sustainable approach to the development of modern environmentally friendly agriculture [49]. Subject of study is the need for and the benefits of the development of organic agriculture, as well as other integrated agroecological activities for sustainable development of rural areas in Bulgaria [50,51]. Another publication justifies the need to improve the supply chain of organic products in Bulgaria by applying measures aimed at strong horizontal and vertical integration between the key actors in the sector, as well as the establishment and operation of territorial/regional organizations of organic producers, partnerships throughout the production chain, and cooperation of participants for the effective realization of the offered products and food. Attention is also paid to the opportunities for local development provided by municipalities that “embrace” the idea of promoting local foods, including organic products, by organizing markets with the participation of stakeholders. This good practice was first introduced in 2017 in the small town (Svishtov), where the university participates in the role of a mediator between the parties—business practice and local government. In general, farmers’ markets for organic products and food are typical for the larger cities in Bulgaria.

A comprehensive monograph on the essence of sustainable models in agriculture summarizes that organic farming has the potential to become a cost-effective sector producing high added value. As an alternative production model, organic production contributes to the sustainable development of agriculture as a whole and provides an opportunity to put innovation at the service of sustainable agriculture. In the context of transforming economic systems, in response to specific consumer demands and a responsible attitude toward nature and climate change, farmers are faced with wide choice of untapped opportunities to develop business on the basis of environmentally friendly practices and opportunities to contribute to the development of the circular bioeconomy. In addition to that, the author emphasizes that organic production is already an established innovative business model in Bulgaria and an opportunity to develop agribusiness on a regional scale, while its future development as a sustainable model with a key role and priority in national agricultural policy is a matter of time and motivated decisions.

Undeniable is the fact that there is a growing awareness of the importance of developing and disseminating organic farming practices at the national level, on the one hand, and, on the other, their contribution to the regional and local economy. This is also confirmed by the development of project initiatives to promote the so-called “bio-regions” in which farmers, citizens, tour operators, associations, and public authorities work together for sustainable management of local resources [52]. Furthermore, as a result of the proactive EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP 2023–2027) on increasing the share of sustainable and organic food production, the initiatives, good examples, and project activities related to the management and development of organic practices in Bulgaria are expanding. For example, in 2023, the one-year project “CAP Green Zone: Be Organic!” was launched, with a main goal to promote the sustainable production of organic food in Bulgaria and to raise consumer awareness of the benefits of clean food. It is focused on a variety of information measures, an interactive map of organic producers [53], a Farm Check mobile application, etc. [54]. The organic producers map developed within the project shows the location of organic farms and provides quick and easy access to best practices in production, as well as online and physical stores offering their products. Inclusion in the interactive organic map of Bulgaria is done by sending farm or business data. The map provides an accurate view of the density of organic operators across the country (Figure 1).

Another important initiative is Capital’s video series “BIOlogica”, co-funded by the European Union, which aims to familiarize the general audience in the YouTube channel with the basic principles and good practices of organic farming [55]. The initiatives for farmers’ markets, culinary festivals, exhibitions, etc., continue and are being upgraded. The National Campaign “CAP Green Zone: Be Organic!” has even extended the scope of consumer target groups by organizing a farmers’ crafts market in large shopping centres (Mall Varna, 13 April 2024). All this convincingly shows us that at the national level, active work is being done to promote and motivate target groups of consumers and, above all, to raise awareness of the multifaceted benefits of organic food, as well as to involve young people, from an early age, in the cause of “clean nature—quality food—healthy life”. In this way, the opportunities and entrepreneurial initiatives for starting future innovative farms are expected to increase.

The analysis of regional differences in Bulgaria is an ongoing study related to planned activities for a research project funded by the Scientific Research Fund under the 2021 Fundamental Scientific Research Competition. This collective monograph examines governance and environmental aspects aimed at enhancing sustainability in the regional development of rural areas in Bulgaria. The role of organic farming is emphasized as a factor and necessity for diversification, as well as the need for optimal utilization of regional resources, ensuring both environmental protection and biodiversity, as well as the health, right to work, and recreation for the local population. This means that diversification, as a tool for minimizing risk in the local economy, is an important factor and a necessity for maintaining high levels of sustainability in the local economy [56].

Regional differences are determined not only by the location of businesses but also by the implementation of effective policies supporting the organic sector. After Bulgaria’s accession to the EU, both the first programming period (2007–2013) and the following one (2014–2020) were characterized by inconsistency in the policy regarding agri-environmental measures, such as changes in participation rules, the application process, and additional requirements. This has led to the need to find effective solutions to overcome the problems, particularly the search for mechanisms to restore trust in agri-environmental policy and the institutions themselves.

The current programming period (2023–2027) is linked to the goal set for 2030, that at least 25% of agricultural land in the EU should be under organic farming. We believe this goal is questionable, considering the notably low percentage of organic land in several EU member states, as well as in Bulgaria (2.30%). In order to implement the market-based approach for the transition to organic farming as a sustainable production model, it is necessary not only to support it through the CAP but also to ensure a sufficient supply of raw materials in terms of both quantity and quality (e.g., plant protection products, seeds, etc.), which are especially needed to comply with the principles of the organic farming system. Given the series of crises in the global economy (pandemics, military conflicts, climate change, the need for transformation of economic systems, etc.), realistic steps must be taken toward expanding the scope of organic farming in each country, including Bulgaria. The National Plan for Organic Production, approved in 2025, emphasizes the search for optimal solutions and the inclusion of suitable instruments to motivate potential farmers.

The broad scope of this topic suggests future research into key factors influencing regional disparities, such as land ownership, the market, and support policies for the development of organic farming practices.

A study by authors from the Agricultural University of Bulgaria explores the opportunities and challenges for organic farming in Bulgaria beyond 2023. They reasonably point out that inconsistent national policy over the past decade is a cause of lower motivation for the development of the organic sector [48].

The regional study (focused on the Northwest and North Central regions) concluded that “the underdeveloped organic sector in the Bulgarian economy needs targeted funding for more promotional campaigns, research projects, farmers’ markets on a regional scale, and other similar initiatives (in small municipalities, not just in large urban centers), and especially from the active participation of all stakeholders. A necessary condition is the pursuit of a long-term vision for the development of territories, including the organic sector, through the implementation of far-sighted strategies for local development, in accordance with the essential characteristics of the region and the available resources, including human capital” [20]. In this sense, expectations regarding the achievement of the goals of the National Plan for the Development of Organic Production by 2030 are that it will be a “mission possible” as a result of the proactive Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP 2023–2027) and the expansion of initiatives, good practices, and project activities at the national, regional, and local levels.

The National Agri-Environmental Program for the period 2007–2013 included the implementation of two of the strategic goals of the National Plan for the Development of Organic Farming for that period, i.e., by 2013, 3% of all food products sold were to be organic products; 8% of UAA (utilized agricultural area) was to be farmed organically. Unfortunately, in Bulgaria, there is no institution that collects official data on the sales, import, and export of organic products. Furthermore, the strategic goal of having 8% of UAA (utilized agricultural area) under organic production has not yet been achieved. This shows that the potential of this model has not been sufficiently realized, despite support from European funds and national policies for promotion. In this regard, efforts and measures are needed from all interested participants in the process, an increased role for local authorities in the sector’s development, collaboration, the creation of specialized exchanges in every larger city, and ensuring organic products are available not only to consumers with conscious needs but also to various public institutions. Expectations are linked to the realization of the goals of the National Action Plan for the Development of Organic Production 2030, which includes targeted policies and interventions grouped into five interconnected areas of development [57]. This strategic document is a key tool for achieving sustainability in the agricultural sector. It should be noted that this plan, set for 2030 (Order No. RD08-7 of 20 February 2025 from the Minister of Agriculture and Food), was formulated as a result of a consensus reached among stakeholders in the organic sector: the Ministry of Agriculture and Food (MAF), associations of organic producers, processors and traders, representatives of control bodies, consulting organizations, and other non-governmental organizations. Real concerns are being expressed regarding the future development of the sector, related to the implementation of the excessively high target by 2030—a minimum of 25% of EU agricultural land under organic farming—considering the demonstrably low percentage of organic areas in Bulgaria (2.30%—2020), as well as in other EU member states, such as Serbia, North Macedonia, Iceland, and Malta (0.60%, 0.29%, 0.32%, and 0.62%). The top 3 countries out of the 27 EU member states for this researched indicator are Austria, Estonia, and Sweden (with over 20% of their total UAA being organically certified).

Currently, organic areas have increased in almost all member states, and the market for organic products is expanding. In terms of areas dedicated to organic farming, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain are leading countries. Austria and Estonia have the highest share of organic areas. In Bulgaria, trends in organic farming show significant variations. The share of organic areas decreased in 2021. Inconsistent policy over the past decade has led to lower motivation for organic production [48].

In our opinion, the production of Bulgarian organic products is not developing sufficiently, mainly due to administrative burdens that often discourage those wishing to further develop their farms, as well as the lack of sufficient information and educational campaigns to increase demand overall.

Organic farming, as a sustainable production model and effective management of agricultural ecosystem components, environmental protection, and climate change mitigation, best aligns with the milestones set in the CAP’s development for the period 2023–2027 to unlock its still unrealized development potential. In this connection, it is more than necessary to expand the market for organic products on a regional, national, and international scale, maintain an effective institutional and regulatory framework for the development of the organic sector based on effective control, as well as continue practical scientific research, training, and courses within the framework of integrated territorial development.

From the reviewed literature, it can be summarized that the topic related to regional differences in the development and establishment of organic production is current and, at the same time, well developed.

The grouping of regions (with the largest number and the lowest number of organic operators) into types supports the development of regional policies, but in parallel with them, sectoral policies are also implemented. For this reason, the current study adds indicators characterizing the total number of conventional agricultural holdings to the existing methodology. NUTS-3 was chosen as the level of analysis because, at the LAU level in Bulgaria, there are many different municipalities—with one settlement, a small number of inhabitants, and those with a small territory. The dynamism in regional development requires periodic and systematic studies to harmonize regional development policy, in particular, the development of rural areas, to achieve sustainability through the implementation of policies for their development, including organic farms, as an important factor in protecting and maintaining the environment and biodiversity, producing safe and healthy food, etc.

The fact that in Bulgaria, only fragmented studies are made on the potential that a “sustainable model—organic farming” has for certain regions in our country explains why this study should outline a current and comprehensive Bulgarian map of the potential of this model and its place in the conditions of transformation toward a sustainable economy.

3. Materials and Methods

The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) divides the territory of Bulgaria into 3 levels: 2 zones, 6 planning regions, and 28 districts, respectively—NUTS-1, NUTS-2, and NUTS-3. The analysis in the study examines the characteristics and the development of organic farming in the overall national scope, i.e., all six planning regions are included: Northwest, North Central, Northeast, Southeast, South Central, and Southwest.

The new vision of the European Union (EU) for the rural areas by 2040 notes that in the long term, it must go beyond demographic issues and cover all aspects that are relevant to the future of rural areas. The document also indicates that from a methodological point of view, in accordance with the collected statistical data and analytical objectives, the analysis of rural areas should be conducted at three geographical levels (1 km square grid, local administrative units (LAU), or municipalities and areas (NUTS-3), i.e., the administrative districts. District-level classification is known as urban-rural regional typology. Regarding the concepts explained in the vision, it is described that at the LAU level, “rural areas” means rural territories, and at the NUTS-3 level, it means rural regions [58].

The focus of this study is on rural areas at the NUTS-3 level in Bulgaria. The methodology for analyzing and developing regional models in Bulgaria includes the collection and processing of primary and secondary data from various official sources, followed by systematization and analysis using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The study is limited to the main production areas (crop production and livestock), processing, and trade. The “Other” section includes imports, exports, wild plants, and transport, which are not the focus due to their smaller volume. Data from the national register has been systematized at the NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 levels, which allow for identifying certain characteristics and trends regarding the distribution of producers, processors, and traders of organic agricultural products and food in Bulgaria.

The focus is on the number of organic operators, as well as the distribution of producers, processors, and traders of organic agricultural products and food. The study highlights the importance of organic farming as a sustainable model that can contribute to the transformation of the Bulgarian economy toward a more ecological and sustainable structure. The results obtained outline a foundation for future research aimed at a deeper analysis of regional potential and the opportunities for integrating organic farming into the national strategy for agricultural development.

Statistical methods were applied in the study to analyse the indicators—time series analysis and correlation analysis. In the formation of the time series, the requirements for comparability by time, place, unit of measurement, method of calculation, methodology used, etc., were met, as well as the requirements that the analysis should include chronological sequences and sufficiently long dynamic statistical series. The rate of development was studied through the descriptive indicators for time series characterization—absolute growth, rate of development, and rate of growth at a fixed base and a chain base and modelling the development trend. When modelling the development trend, the least squares method was used most often to calculate the parameters of linear equations, as well as of equations that are brought into linear form in terms of parameters. Before proceeding to development trend modelling, the hypothesis was tested to determine the presence of a trend by means of the first-order autocorrelation coefficient (r₁) and the test characteristics of the Box–Ljung test (BL) and Box–Pierce test (BP), [59] (pp. 21–31, 317–319). The trend was modelled on the basis of the competing models—linear, logarithmic, second-degree polynomial, third-degree polynomial, exponential function, and power function, where the most suitable trend model is selected on the basis of the correlation coefficient (r), the determination coefficient (R²), the corrected determination coefficient ($\mathrm{Adjusted}\mathrm{R}\mathrm{Square}$), and the Fisher’s F-criterion, according to which the model with the highest values obtained is considered the most suitable model [59] (pp. 47–129). Based on the selected trend model, short-term or medium-term forecasts can be made, and the confidence intervals of the forecast are calculated, where the further the forecast period moves away, the more uncertain the forecasts become, which means it is better to make short-term forecasts because they are more accurate. Most often, the forecasts are made with a 95% confidence and, respectively, a 5% risk of error.

The correlation analysis is used to measure and assess the strength of the correlation between the studied phenomena. Depending on whether the factor and the resultant variable are variation or category variables and the scale on which the definitions of the factor and resultant variables are presented, a distinction is made between correlation analysis and correlation analysis of category data. In the present study, the factor and the resultant variable are category values; they are represented on the nominal scale, and a correlation analysis is to be applied to category data. For the analysis of dependencies between variables represented on the nominal scale, the chi-square method is used, which is a non-parametric method for testing hypotheses, and an assumption about the stochastic distribution of characteristics is not made. In the test of a hypothesis, the null hypothesis (H₀) and the alternative hypothesis (H₁) are defined. The null hypothesis contains the assumption that there is no objective relation between the two variables—the factor and the resultant—and if such is observed, it is influenced by random circumstances. The alternative hypothesis is the assumption that there is an objective, non-random relation between the studied phenomena, i.e., the resultant variable is related in some way to the factor variable [60,61,62]. The hypothesis is tested with a type I error $\mathrm{\alpha }=0.05$. To test this hypothesis, the chi-square method is used, which is a non-parametric method for testing hypotheses, where an assumption about the stochastic distribution of characteristics is not made. After calculating the empirical value of the chi-square criterion ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2$, the theoretical characteristic of the hypothesis ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$ is defined at $\mathrm{\alpha }=0.05$ and degrees of freedom $\mathrm{f}=(\mathrm{n}-1)(\mathrm{k}-1)$. The empirical and theoretical values of chi-square are compared. If the empirical value of chi-square is less than or equal to a theoretical value of chi-square (${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2\le {\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$), the null hypothesis is assumed, i.e., there is no objective, regular relation between the studied variables, or if such is observed, it is influenced by random circumstances. If the empirical value of a chi-square is greater than a theoretical value of a chi-square (${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2>{\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$), it follows that the null hypothesis is rejected as implausible, and the alternative hypothesis is accepted, namely that there is a regular, non-random relation between the studied values, where the hypothesis is firstly tested for an objective relation, and if its existence is confirmed, the strength of the relation between the studied variables is measured through the Cramer’s V coefficient and the Pearson’s contingency coefficient C [60,61,62]. Correlation coefficients in category data are also in the range between $0\pm 1$, but very rarely reach the upper limit.

The information provided for analysis of the number of organic operators during the study period is based on official statistical data from the national register of producers, processors, and traders of organic agricultural products and food in Bulgaria [63]. The electronic register in Bulgaria was created to provide comprehensive monitoring of organic production, storage, and trade of organic products. Since 19 August 2019, the introduction of information has been ongoing, with constant updates and the addition of new functionalities. The register is validated by its placement on the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, making it an official source of information (https://bioregister.mzh.government.bg/, accessed on 20 December 2024). Each operator confirms the information entered with a qualified electronic signature or a personal identification code issued by the National Revenue Agency. Due to the use of official statistical data from the national electronic register of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, no procedures were carried out to fill in missing data or to remove extreme values during the data analysis. The calculations were performed using the MS Excel software (version 2019).

4. Status of Organic Farming in Bulgaria

In this paper, we have not set the task of evaluating the organic product market in our country due to the lack of information on the turnover from the sale of organic products (both domestic and imported) in Bulgaria. From the analysis of the state of the organic production sector in the National Development Plan for 2030, a SWOT analysis has been synthesized, which highlights that, unfortunately, Bulgaria still lacks an institution that collects official data on the sale, import, and export of organic products. The data from 2022 show the low number of operators certified with primary and/or additional activities, such as imports—101 operators—and exports—86 operators [64].

However, the 2024 Agricultural Report emphasizes that organic food produced in the country is largely intended for export, primarily to the European market. Every year, a significant export of certified wild-dried forest fruits and herbs takes place. Frozen fruits (strawberries, raspberries, and blueberries), honey, essential oils from rose, lavender, mint, cheese, feta cheese, and jams are well received in international markets. In 2023, the trend of growth in the number of specialized stores for organic food sales and trade units involved in the distribution of organic products continued. According to data for Bulgaria, extracted from the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL), retail sales of organic products have shown significant growth, rising from 0.8 million euros in 2007 to 37.77 million euros in 2023. On average, the annual growth during this period was 47 times, with an average annual increase of 27.2%.

We hope that this will change soon and that official data on the organic product market in Bulgaria will be collected. We believe that the presence of an official source for the organic product market in our country is essential, and only then will there be an opportunity for in-depth research in the future.

In some of the districts in the southern regions of the country and near the larger urban centres, the development of organic farming, and the trade and diversification of agricultural activities are happening at a faster rate. There are serious difficulties in the transition to the production of high-quality products and in organizing manufacturers to register and protect their products [65]. However, in recent years, there have been many good examples of starting, operating, and managing innovative organic farms, and in many cases, these are young families, including women entrepreneurs.

In order to represent the dynamics in the total number of organic operators in Bulgaria,

Table 1. Dynamics of the number of organic operators in the period 2007–2023.

Years	Number of Operators in Organic Production	Absolute Growth Rate (Issue)		Growth Rate (%)
		Fixed Base 2007	Chain Base	Fixed Base 2007	Chain Base
2007	339	-	-	-	-
2008	311	−28	−28	−8.3	−8.3
2009	476	137	165	40.4	53.1
2010	820	481	344	141.9	72.3
2011	1054	715	234	210.9	28.5
2012	3750	3411	2696	1006.2	255.8
2013	3995	3656	245	1078.5	6.5
2014	4092	3753	97	1107.1	2.4
2015	6173	5834	2081	1720.9	50.9
2016	7262	6923	1089	2042.2	17.6
2017	6822	6483	−440	1912.4	−6.1
2018	6660	6321	−162	1864.6	−2.4
2019	6405	6066	−255	1789.4	−3.8
2020	5844	5505	−561	1623.9	−8.8
2021	4913	4574	−931	1349.3	−15.9
2022	4863	4524	−50	1334.5	−1.0
2023	5026	4687	163	1382.6	3.4

Source: The Ministry of Agriculture and Food, according to data from agricultural reports and calculations of the author.

contains data for a 17-year period (2007–2023). Thus, the study covers three reference periods: 2007–2013, 2014–2020, and 2023–2027 (launched two years later). Year 2007 was adopted as a fixed base since Bulgaria was admitted as a member of the European Union in that year. In the period 2007–2016, the number of organic operators increased 21.4 times from 339 to 7262, which is an increase of 6066. By 2016, there was an accelerated growth in the number of organic operators, which is largely due to the increased opportunities and entrepreneurial initiatives of farms to develop organic farming due to the growing interest of consumers in the use of organic food, but also due to the national and European policy to support and stimulate organic and ecological farming. At the beginning of Bulgaria’s EU membership period, the number of organic operators was only 339, but in the following years, there was significant growth, with their number increasing every year, as evidenced by the calculated absolute growth rates and growth rates at a chain base (Table 1). Compared to each previous year, the number of organic operators marked the highest growth in 2012 by 255.8%, or by a number of 2696. In the following years, their number grew steadily and reached its highest value of 7262 in 2016. In the next years, there was a decrease compared to their number in the previous year by 6.1% in 2017, 2.4% in 2018, and 3.8% in 2019, and in the years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the decline was even more pronounced—8.8% in 2020 and 15.9% in 2021. The reasons for the decreasing number of organic operators, especially in the years of the pandemic, are of different nature but are mainly related to the complicated environment, changes in the organization of work and imposed restrictions, disrupted supply chains, problems in the realization of production, and others. In 2022, the decline was only 1%, but in that year, the effects of the pandemic could still be felt, and it marked the onset of the war in Ukraine, which also had an impact on the economic environment and entrepreneurial activity in all sectors. Gradually, the business began to adapt to the environment, and in 2023, the number of organic operators increased by 3.4%, which is an absolute increase of 163.

The information on the state of organic production in Bulgaria over the years is based on data from the annual reports of the 15 approved controlling bodies for organic production, as authorized by the Minister of Agriculture and Food. The data from primary sources for the study period have been systematized. The analysis of the data shows that the most significant increase and notable growth occurred during the period from 2009 to 2016, with a peak in the number of organic operators in 2016, reaching 7262 operators. We can identify several key periods in the development of the sector, namely:

-

underdeveloped sector—2007, 2008;

-

established sector—after 2011;

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strong development with a sustainable growth trend—2012, 2013, 2014, 2015;

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most developed sector—2016;

-

sustainable decline trend—2017, 2018, 2019;

-

significant decline—2020, 2021, 2022.

The total number of operators covered by the control system has decreased during the analyzed period, especially after 2016 (by around 20% or more), particularly after 2019 (2020—80.47%, 2021—67.65%, and 2022—66.96%). This downward trend is explained, on the one hand, by deep crises (COVID-19, military conflicts, inflation, shrinking market, etc.) and, on the other hand, by the severely insufficient financial support (only Measure 11 from the Rural Development Program for the period 2014–2020). In all cases, the organic sector remains in an unequal position compared to conventional farms. The share of controlled organic areas relative to Utilized Agricultural Area (UAA) between 2007–2022 reached its highest value in 2019 (4.49), while the lowest relative share (1.71) was recorded in 2021.

In summary, the reasons for the decrease in the number of organic operators during the period 2017–2019 are diverse in nature—demand for organic products, business environment, access to financing, bureaucratic obstacles in registration and certification, difficulties in marketing the products, lack of personnel, poor transportation, connectivity with urban centers, etc. All of this indicates that the reasons for the decrease are multifaceted. During the years of the pandemic, these issues became even more pronounced.

The expectations regarding the achievement of the goals set by the National Plan for the Development of Organic Production by 2030 are considered a “mission possible” due to the proactive Common Agricultural Policy of the EU (CAP 2023–2027) and the expansion of initiatives, best practices, and project activities at national, regional, and local levels.

The hypothesis test for the presence of a trend in the studied dynamic order was performed using the first-order autocorrelation coefficient (r₁) and the test characteristics of the Box–Ljung test (BL) and the Box–Pierce test (BP) at a significance level of 0.05. The null hypothesis states that the dynamic order of the number of organic operators is random and does not contain a trend, while the alternative hypothesis states that the order contains a trend. The empirical values of the criteria used are first-order autocorrelation coefficient (r₁ = 0.931398459), Box–Ljung test (BL = 17.51271861), and Box–Pierce test (BP = 14.74755252). The theoretical values of the autocorrelation coefficient are from −0.441 to +0.287, and for the test characteristics of Box–Buying and Box–Pierce according to the chi-square, the distribution is 3.84.

When modelling the trend in the number of organic operators, the method of competing models was applied, and for this purpose, the following models were tested: linear, second-degree polynomial, third-degree polynomial, logarithmic function, exponential function, and power function. The parameter estimates were obtained using the least squares method. Based on the obtained characteristics of the models and the possibilities for economic interpretation of the parameters, the obtained theoretical values of the number of organic operators for the period studied and the possibilities for using the forecasting model, the linear model was selected as the most suitable for trend modelling (Figure 2). The interpretation of the linear model parameters is as follows: parameter ${\mathrm{a}}_0=516.6176$ is considered as the initial state of the phenomenon (the number of organic operators), and parameter ${\mathrm{a}}_1=392.3$ shows the change in the number of organic operators for each period compared to the previous one, thus reflecting the influence of the regular causes that act constantly throughout the period. The value of parameter ${\mathrm{a}}_1=392.3$ is positive and indicates that the dynamic order containing data about the number of organic operators shows a tendency to increase.

The presented linear trend model enables us to make a forecast for the number of organic operators in the period 2024–2027, i.e., until the end of the programming period. It is known that the confidence intervals of the forecast increase with the further removal of the forecast period, and it follows that it is better to make short-term forecasts because they are more accurate. The forecast was made with a 95% confidence and, respectively, a 5% risk of error. Estimates of the number of organic operators and their confidence intervals are given in

Table 2. Forecast for the number of organic operators in the period 2024–2027.

Years	Forecast of the Number of Operators in Organic Production	Lower Bound of the Forecast	Upper Bound of the Forecast
2024	7578	3794	11,362
2025	7970	4115	11,826
2026	8363	4433	12,292
2027	8755	4744	12,766

Source: Author’s calculations.

.

According to the forecast, the number of organic operators is increasing, and for 2024, it is estimated to be between 3794 and 11,362 for 2025, between 4115 and 11,826 for 2026, between 4433 and 12,292, and, for 2027, between 4744 and 12,766. The visualization in Figure 3 of the estimated values based on the linear trend model and the limits of the forecast clearly shows that they follow the general trend of growing number of organic operators after Bulgaria’s accession to the EU.

The presented linear trend model summarizes the patterns in the development of organic operators in Bulgaria. The confidence interval for the forecast is wide because there is significant variation in the values across the studied time series, which also results in a higher standard error for the model. In other words, the standard error of the forecast increases proportionally with the rise in the model’s standard error. The development of organic farming in Bulgaria is primarily linked to the country’s EU membership, but it has progressed at different rates during the first and second programming periods. Higher levels were achieved during the second period, though the trend is not uniformly upward due to specific challenges in Bulgaria’s agricultural sector. These challenges manifest even more acutely in organic farming, encompassing administrative, organizational, operational, and logistical hurdles. Unclear operational conditions, lack of skilled personnel, weak public awareness, low consumer purchasing power, poorly functioning distribution systems, and competition from imported products further hinder the realization of organic farming’s potential. All of this shows that the development of the sector and the number of organic operators is influenced by various factors, which form the basis of the dynamics of the indicators. The created linear trend model highlights the overall trend for the analyzed period. The forecast has a wide confidence interval, meaning that if conditions for organic farming improve and the factors outlined above act positively, it is possible to reach the upper bounds of the confidence interval. If the negative impacts of these factors intensify, the number of organic operators will decline further, falling below projected levels and approaching the lower bound of the forecast.

Based on the calculated theoretical values of the number of organic operators and the forecast made, it is concluded that their number will increase steadily in the coming years. It is possible to witness a significant increase in the number of organic operators. This is in line with the strategic objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy for the period 2023–2027, according to which organic producers are included in eco-schemes under the first pillar of the Rural Development Program. According to the CAP, significant funds should be directed to the development of organic production as one of the ways of sustainable development of rural territories, environmental sustainability and creation of sustainable business models, etc.

5. Analysis of Changes and Regional Differences—Results and Discussion

In this section, we will analyse the distribution of organic operators depending on the farming activities practised in the different areas. Next, we will look at their distribution in the main production segments (plant and livestock production) by statistical regions.

While Bulgaria’s organic production development is favored by quality land resources, climate conditions, and agricultural traditions, the adoption of innovative approaches to eco-friendly farming remains challenging in regions with traditional farming practices, low motivation, and limited entrepreneurial initiatives. Meanwhile, the trend of underdevelopment persists in the least advanced region (Northwest Bulgaria), which further explains the sector’s weak growth there.

The data from the national registry shows that the number of organic operators in the Northwestern region is the lowest, with 426, while in the Northern Central region, the total number is closer to the other statistical regions, ranging from 901 to 971. Despite the fact that the relative share of agricultural land is highest in the Northern Central planning region (66.83%) and the Northwestern region (66.48%), Northwestern Bulgaria is characterized by underdeveloped organic farming, which reflects the overall trends in the development of agriculture in this region.

Data from the database of the national electronic register and author’s calculations were used regarding the state of the organic agriculture sector as at the end of April 2024. A section of five groups of activities (plant production, livestock production, processing, trade, and others) is presented. The group “Others” includes the activities, transport, import, export, and collection of wild plants. At this stage, their presence is significantly lower in the separate regions, depending on the location of the farm, and often due to poor management. For this reason, they are given the fifth place or included in the group “Others”. The focus of the study is to analyse the regional differences in the number of organic operators depending on the activities practised within the overall territorial scope by presenting the trends in the six regions (North Central, Northwest, Northeast, Southeast, South Central, and Southwest Planning Regions)—Figure 4 (sub-panel Northern Planning Regions; sub-panel Southern Planning Regions).

Figure 4 shows that in all regions of Bulgaria, priority place is taken by the two main production segments: plant and livestock production. These are followed by trade in organic products and food, processing, and, finally, the farming activities in the group “Others”.

Examining the plant production segment, regardless of the distribution of organic operators in each of the district centres by regions (NUTS-3), the representatives of the southern regions (Southeast, South Central, and Southwest) are significantly more than those in the northern ones. The highest growth is observed in Burgas, Haskovo, Plovdiv, and Sofia District. In North Bulgaria, the plant production segment is developed to the largest extent in the Northeast region (Varna, Targovishte, Dobrich, and Shumen), followed by the North Central region (Silistra, Ruse, and Veliko Tarnovo), and to a lesser extent, it is developed in the Northwest region (Vidin, Montana, and Vratsa). However, when comparing the five activities studied, prevalent in the Northwest region is the plant production segment. The Lovech District marks the highest growth in the number of organic producers (109), while in the Vidin region, they have the lowest representation (30), which is only 2.75% of them.

The distribution of organic operators who have chosen the livestock segment is in the opposite direction, or its representatives in a large part of the northern regions (North Central and Northeast) predominate compared to the plant production segment. The largest number of representatives are in Silistra, Ruse, Veliko Tarnovo, Shumen, and Targovishte (over 100).

Noteworthy is the growth of processing enterprises in general and the ambition of farmers to close the production cycle in more and more organic farms in Bulgaria. This trend was not typical for the preceding years when it was reported as an important but unresolved problem. For example, a monograph argues that “the Achilles heel of our country is also the lack of processing enterprises and the unfavourable position of Bulgarian processors, even compared to European countries with a smaller geographical area” [66]. At this stage, it is quite logical that enterprises related to processing are positioned mostly in large economic centres: Sofia District (111), Plovdiv (57), Stara Zagora (22), Varna (18), and Dobrich (15). In the Northwest and North Central regions, they have the lowest share of processed volumes from organic farms. This was also one of the main problems in the past, and it is still not resolved to a sufficient degree in these regions.

The trade activity as a segment for sale of organic products and food is developed to a greater extent in the southern regions and, in particular, in the Southwest region, Sofia District (259 operators). Comparing the total number of representatives in the other five regions with those in the Southwest, it is clear that their relative share in the South Central and Southeast Regions is 34.08% and 24.76%, respectively. In the Northeast and North Central regions, their distribution is 23.79% and 20.90%. The trade activity in the Northwest region is the least developed, 16.40%, compared to the strongest Southwest region.

The position of innovative entrepreneurs in the group “other activities” is most pronounced in the Southwest region, to which the capital of Bulgaria belongs and which is generally highly developed, a total of 127. The Southeast, South Central, and Northeast regions rank second with similar values in terms of the total number of organic operators (ranging from 35 to 43). In the other two regions—the North Central and the Northwest—the lowest the number of representatives is in Northwest Bulgaria (9). This fact confirms the studies of Bulgarian scientists [67,68], who argue that in Bulgaria, there is still an ongoing negative trend where the two most underdeveloped regions are the Northwest and the North Central. Logically, this also has an impact on entrepreneurial initiatives related to organic activities in different segments.

Table 3. Distribution of organic operators according to planning region and activities practised.

Planning Regions	Activities Practised					Total
	Plant Production	Livestock Production	Processing	Trade	Others
NWR	288	177	22	51	9	547
NCR	468	522	42	65	15	1112
NER	516	376	47	74	37	1050
SER	709	281	48	77	35	1150
SCR	686	178	76	106	43	1089
SWR	526	173	143	311	127	1280
Total	3193	1707	378	684	266	6228

Source: Author’s calculations.

presents the distribution of organic operators according to the planning region—NWR, NCR, NER, SER, SCR, and SWR—and the activities practised—plant production, livestock production, processing, trade, and others. Based on this distribution, we have analysed the relationship between the location and the activity practised by organic operators. The definitions of the two analysed characteristics are presented on the nominal scale, which is why the hypothesis of an existing relation between them is tested through the chi-square method.

The null hypothesis is the assumption that there is no objective relation between the location (the planning region) and the activity of the organic operators, and if such is observed, it is influenced by random circumstances. The alternative hypothesis is the assumption that there is an objective, non-random relation between the location (the planning region) and the activity of organic operators, i.e., the activity practised by organic operators is somehow related to their location. The hypothesis is tested with a type I error $\mathrm{\alpha }=0.05.$ To test this hypothesis, the chi-square method is used, which is a non-parametric method for testing hypotheses, where an assumption about the stochastic distribution of characteristics is not made. Based on the distribution of organic operators according to their location and activity presented in Table 3, the empirical value of the chi-square criterion was calculated ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2=$ 895.1776087. The theoretical characteristic of the hypothesis ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$ is defined at $\alpha =0.05$and degrees of freedom $\mathrm{f}=20$, which is ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2=31.410$. From the comparison of the empirical with the theoretical characteristic of the hypothesis, it is seen that ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2>{\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$; therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected as implausible, and the alternative hypothesis is accepted that there is a regular, non-random relation between the location (the planning region) and the activity of organic operators. To establish the strength of the relationship between the location and the activity practised by the organic operators, the Cramer’s V correlation coefficient and Pearson’s contingency coefficient C were calculated. The Cramer’s V correlation coefficient of V = 0.189562 indicates a weak correlation between the location (planning region) and the activity of organic operators, i.e., differences in the activity of organic operators are also influenced by other factors (e.g., land ownership, market realization, entrepreneurial initiatives, regional policies, etc.). According to Pearson’s contingency coefficient C = 0.354501, the correlation between the location represented by the planning region and the activities practised by organic operators is moderate, which again proves that the activities practised are influenced by other factors, not only the location. In this sense, the established weak to moderate correlation between the practised activity and the location of the business shows that there is potential for development of organic agriculture in Bulgaria. Depending on the choice of activities in the separate segments, it may increase to a greater extent in each region. This confirms the studies in Bulgaria that organic farming, as a sustainable model for development of modern farms, has the potential to become a cost-effective sector producing high added value, regardless of the territorial scope. Exploiting this potential and implementing it in local regional policies will lead to competitive advantages and sustainability of each territory.

Next, we will analyse the distribution of organic operators in a larger territorial section, i.e., by planning regions. As it became clear, the predominant activities practised by organic farms in Bulgaria are plant and livestock production. For this reason, in Figure 5, we have presented their regional distribution.

The figure shows that organic farms in the Northwest region are the least developed. This applies to both production segments, plant and livestock production. When comparing the northern and southern regions, there is a tendency for stronger development of organic plant production on the farms of entrepreneurs from the southern regions (Southeast, South Central, and Southwest). Among them, the number of organic operators in the Southeast and South Central regions is the largest and almost equal (709 and 686). In relative terms, the operators in the Southwest region are 74.19%, compared to those in the region with highest representation, namely the Southeast. The relative share of organic representatives in the Northwest region is 40.62%, i.e., less than half, compared to that in the Southeast region. However, in the other two northern regions, there is greater entrepreneurial activity and a positive increase in the number of farms in the plant production segment, or a relative share of 62.50% and 79.17%, compared to the least developed region. From all of the above, it is clear that in Bulgaria, the more developed segment is the organic plant production, where the organic operators are twice as many compared to the total number of those who have chosen the organic livestock segment. Nevertheless, the study shows that compared to organic operators in the past periods, livestock production has increased significantly in recent years. It should be noted that Measure 214 (Agri-environment payments) of the RDP for the period 2007–2013 was mainly aimed at supporting organic plant production and organic beekeeping. For the past programming period 2014–2020, an independent Measure 11 was included, which continued the idea of supporting the organic sector, but with the addition of organic breeding of cattle and small farm animals. This circumstance explains quite logically the fact that in recent years, organic livestock farms, being a more labour-intensive segment, have increased, albeit slowly.

If we consider only the livestock segment, it is evident that it is less developed in three of the regions on the territory of our country. These are the Northwest, Southwest, and South Central regions, having 177, 173, and 178 organic operators, respectively. It should be noted that, unfortunately, the total number of farmers who have taken on the “organic production” in Northwest Bulgaria can be explained by the fact that it predetermines its underdevelopment and is mainly due to significantly deteriorated demographic and economic indicators.

The number of organic operators in the Southwest and South Central regions is also predetermined by the fact that a significant part of the farmers on the territory grows not only cereals and vegetables but also fruit trees and vines (e.g., the regions of Plovdiv, Pazardzhik, Sandanski, Petrich, etc.). Furthermore, the alternative tourism, including mountaineering, has an important role in these regions, which are characterized by favourable natural and anthropogenic resources, as well as unique landmarks. This explains quite logically the tendency for more developed organic plant production and less developed livestock segment in these regions.

It is noteworthy that the number of organic operators in the livestock segment in the North Central region (522) is the highest compared to all other regions. The relative share of representatives of the Northwest region is 33.91% of those with the highest number. Next are the Northeast and Southeast regions with respective relative shares of 72.03% and 53.83% of the value in the North Central region.

Table 4. Distribution of organic operators by planning regions and by main production areas (crop farming and livestock farming).

Planning Regions	Activities Practised		Total
	Plant Production	Livestock Production
NWR	288	177	465
NCR	468	522	990
NER	516	376	892
SER	709	281	990
SCR	526	173	699
SWR	686	178	864
Total	3193	1707	4900

Source: Author’s calculations.

represents the distribution of organic operators according to the planning region and two of the most frequently practised activities, plant and livestock production, and on the basis of it, an analysis is made of the correlation between the location and the activity practised by organic operators. Again, first, a test is made to determine if a correlation exists between the location and the activity practised by the organic operators by applying the chi-square method, and the hypothesis is tested with a type I error $\alpha =0.05$.

The null hypothesis states that there is no objective relation between the location (the planning region) and the activity practised by organic operators, or if such exists, it is influenced by random circumstances. The alternative hypothesis states that there is an objective, non-random relation between the location (the planning region) and the activity practised by organic operators, i.e., the type of organic operators is somehow related to their location. Based on the distribution of organic operators presented in Table 4 according to their location and activity practised, plant or livestock production, the empirical value of the chi-square criterion was calculated ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2=$ 314.2576. The theoretical characteristic of the hypothesis ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$ is defined at $\alpha =0.05$and degrees of freedom $\mathrm{f}=5$, which is ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2=11.070$. From the comparison of the empirical with the theoretical characteristic of the hypothesis, it is seen that ${\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{m}}^2>{\mathrm{\chi }}_{\mathrm{T}}^2$; therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected as implausible, and the alternative hypothesis is accepted that there is a regular, non-random relation between the location (the planning region) and the activity practised by organic operators. To establish the strength of the relationship between the location and the activity practised by the organic operators, the Cramer’s V correlation coefficient and Pearson’s contingency coefficient C were calculated. According to the values of Cramer’s V = 0.253247 and Pearson’s contingency coefficient C = 0.245497, there is a weak correlation between the location (the planning region) and the practised activity of plant and livestock production by organic operators, i.e., the differences in the activity of organic operators are also influenced by other factors such as land ownership, market realization, entrepreneurial initiatives, regional policies, etc. In this case, despite the priority of the two main production segments (plant and livestock production), there is also a weak dependence on the location of the business. This can be explained by the fact that in Bulgaria, there is a growing awareness of the importance of developing and disseminating organic farming practices at the national level, on the one hand, and, on the other, their contribution to the regional and local economy. Therefore, the expectations are related to more project initiatives; collaboration between science, business, and local government; NGOs promoting the activities of farms; and joint efforts of farms, citizens, tour operators, associations, and public authorities aimed at sustainable management of local resources. Actually, all of these make it possible to uncover the potential of a given region depending on the entrepreneurial initiatives for diversification of business practices, successful implementation of the product range, and the relationship between agriculture and tourism.

6. Conclusions

The current CAP is aimed at supporting and implementing the Action Plan for the Development of Organic Production—2030, focusing on environmental sustainability, sustainable production models, good practices, and innovative solutions related to organic products. A significant financial resource is allocated for organic production, for specific commitments on sustainable development and management of rural territories, and for additional funding under eco-schemes. On the other hand, the increased demand for organic products is an important factor in increasing both the scale of organic production and the number of organic operators within the national borders.

Based on the analyses carried out, it was found that there are differences in the organic activities practised and that their distribution by regions and districts (NUTS-2 and NUTS-3) is uneven. This is due to certain regularities and specifics, depending on the geographical location of the specific regions and the activity of local entrepreneurs.

The results of the study of organic agriculture in Bulgaria, as a sustainable model for agricultural production, show that not only it has the potential for development but is also an opportunity for diversification of agricultural business on the regional level, with a key role and priority in the national agricultural policy.

The present study outlines the current state of the potential for the development of organic farming at both national and regional levels. Organic farming has a significant presence in the Bulgarian agricultural practices, but the entrepreneurial niche for innovative practices and the launch of entrepreneurial initiatives in this direction is still untapped.

The future development of the organic sector is an undisputed priority in the development of Bulgarian agriculture and the modern economy. Its role and contribution to improving the overall ecosystem in each specific region are particularly important. As one of the already established sustainable models in agricultural practice, it can be said that its development potential in Bulgaria is still not fully realized. It is possible to unlock the full potential of organic farming in Bulgaria, regardless of the practices in different areas in each region. To achieve this, it is necessary to initiate local policies to stimulate the production and market of organic products and establish it as an effective approach for achieving sustainable development.

As a result of the study, two main recommendations can be made to stakeholders. First, strengthen the interaction between local authorities, local communities, local initiative groups, businesses, and scientific organizations. Second, ensure effective collaboration at the regional level in order to achieve competitive advantages and opportunities to achieve the goals set in the regional strategies for the development of organic agriculture.