Physical and Statistical Links between Errors at the Surface, in the Boundary Layer, and in the Free Atmosphere in Medium-Range Numerical Weather Predictions
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The OP and NEW Configurations
2.2. Surface Fluxes and PBL in GEM
2.3. Vertical Profiles in GEM
2.4. Evaluation Metrics and Diagnostics
2.5. Experimental Setup
3. Results
4. Discussion
4.1. Statistically Explaining STDE in Upper Boundary Layer
4.2. Physical Links with PBL Diurnal Evolution
4.3. PBL Errors and Upper-Air NWP Evaluation
5. Summary and Conclusions
- The same analysis could be carried out during the winter season and over other areas, when and where the nature of the links between errors at the surface and in the atmosphere could be different.
- It is not clear whether the same kind of statistical and physical links would be found in other atmospheric models.
- Do we see the same kind of behavior for weather prediction based on AI forecasting systems?
- Diagnostics for land–atmosphere coupling could be examined in order to have a more complete understanding of the links between errors at the surface and in the boundary layer.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AIRS | Atmospheric Infrared Sounder |
CRIS | CRoss-track Infrared Sounder |
EnKF | Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation system |
EnVar | Ensemble Variational data assimilation system |
CaLDAS | Canadian Land Data Assimilation System |
CaPA | Canadian Precipitation Analysis |
CCMEP | Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction |
CTEM | Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model |
ECCC | Environment and Climate Change Canada |
GDPS | Global Deterministic Prediction System |
GEM | Global Environmental Multiscale model |
GEWEX | Global Energy and Water EXchanges initiative |
HRRR | High-Resolution Rapid Refresh |
IASI | Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer |
ISBA | Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere scheme |
LoCo | Local Land–Atmosphere Coupling |
NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
NWP | Numerical weather prediction |
PBL | Planetary boundary layer |
SMAP | Soil Moisture Active Passive mission |
SMOS | Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission |
SVS | Soil, Vegetation, and Snow scheme |
TKE | Turbulent kinetic energy |
UTC | Universal Time Coordinated |
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Bélair, S.; Alavi, N.; Leroyer, S.; Carrera, M.L.; Abrahamowicz, M.; Bilodeau, B.; Simjanovski, D.; Charpentier, D.; Badawy, B. Physical and Statistical Links between Errors at the Surface, in the Boundary Layer, and in the Free Atmosphere in Medium-Range Numerical Weather Predictions. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 1012. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081012
Bélair S, Alavi N, Leroyer S, Carrera ML, Abrahamowicz M, Bilodeau B, Simjanovski D, Charpentier D, Badawy B. Physical and Statistical Links between Errors at the Surface, in the Boundary Layer, and in the Free Atmosphere in Medium-Range Numerical Weather Predictions. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(8):1012. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081012
Chicago/Turabian StyleBélair, Stéphane, Nasim Alavi, Sylvie Leroyer, Marco L. Carrera, Maria Abrahamowicz, Bernard Bilodeau, Dragan Simjanovski, Dorothée Charpentier, and Bakr Badawy. 2024. "Physical and Statistical Links between Errors at the Surface, in the Boundary Layer, and in the Free Atmosphere in Medium-Range Numerical Weather Predictions" Atmosphere 15, no. 8: 1012. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15081012