Analysis on the Evolution of Rural Settlement Pattern and Its Influencing Factors in China from 1995 to 2015

Since the early 1990s, China has experienced rapid industrialization and urbanization. As cities have expanded rapidly, the spatial patterns of rural settlements also changed significantly. This study uses land use data from satellite imagery interpretation, socioeconomic statistics, and field survey data, together with techniques including landscape pattern analysis, kernel density estimation, and spatial measurement models, to analyze the evolving spatial patterns of rural settlements influencing factors in China from 1995 to 2015. The results indicate the following: First, China’s rural settlements experienced significant changes in the period 1995–2015, as 88.92% of Prefectural-level administrative district units saw an increase in rural settlement area, with total settlement size increasing by 1.35 million hectares, and settlement area sprawl index values can be summarized as “high in the west and low in the east”. Second, in the two-decade study period, the population agglomeration capacity of rural settlements in China continuously weakened, and the shape and structure of rural settlement became more complex and irregular. The scale and scope of the disappearance of rural settlement areas in the northeast and southeast regions was relatively drastic, and the kernel density value of settlements dropped significantly. Third, the increase in rural settlement land area is concentrated in low-altitude and low-slope areas, with a significant tendency to be near water and roads. Fourth, social and economic factors, such as per capita net income of rural residents, the proportion of the population employed in agriculture, the size and structure of the permanent rural population, local fiscal revenue, and urbanization level, are the main factors that cause changes of rural settlement patterns. The results of this study can serve as a reference for promoting regional rural sustainable development policies and advancing rural spatial governance and comprehensive revitalization.