Analysis on the Evolution of Rural Settlement Pattern and Its Influencing Factors in China from 1995 to 2015

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

1 The research gap is not clear.

2 What is the novelty and contribution of this research?

3 Only correlation analysis was performed. You should do a regression (linear OLS or Logit) to find a deeper relationship.

4 What is the analysis unit?

5 Most discussion and conclusion sections do not contain citations.

6 You should compare your results with similar studies from China or other countries.

Author Response

We are very grateful for your comments on the manuscript. According to your advice, we revised the relevant part of the manuscript. 

1. The research gap is not clear. What is the novelty and contribution of this research?

Response: Thanks very much for taking the time to review this manuscript. In the introduction section, we added the novelty and contribution about this research. According to literature review, we found that previous studies on rural settlements focused on specific areas, such as the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, or a single county. However, due to the complexity and diversity of regional types in China, it is necessary to adopt different development policies based on different locational conditions, natural endowments, and economic social development level to promote the sustainable development of rural areas. There are few studies on changes in the scale, shape, and distribution of rural settlements in China, which has limited our understanding of the overall pattern and regional differences of rural settlements across China from a vertical perspective. With that in mind, we want to answer two questions: (1) At the national level, what changes have taken place in the scale, shape, and distribution of rural settlements in China, and what are the differences among regions. (2) What factors have caused the change of rural settlement pattern, and what are the influencing factors that cause the difference of rural settlement scale, shape, and distribution between regions.

2. Only correlation analysis was performed. You should do a regression (linear OLS or Logit) to find a deeper relationship.

Response: Thank you for your careful review. First of all, we need to explain that we adopt multiple linear regression analysis rather than simple correlation analysis to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting rural settlement change. We used model regression analysis to identify the factors that influenced rural settlements from 1995 to 2015. The model was tested using the chi-square test from the Hausman random effect model (Sig.), with a P value of less than 0.05 indicating rejection of a random effect at a confidence level of 0.05, so a fixed effects model was selected. As a panel data analysis method, fixed effect model is used to analyze the difference between each category or the interaction effect with other categories, and it is suitable for identifying the socio-economic factors that affect the change of rural settlements.

3. What is the analysis unit?

Response: This research took prefecture-level district as the analysis units. They are directly administered by provinces with a total of 361 subjects. Specifically, China's administrative divisions are divided from high to low into central, provincial, prefectural, county, town and village. In addition, there are individual counties that are directly administered by provincial administrative districts. The analysis unit of this paper refers to the unit directly managed by the provincial administrative region, that is, prefecture-level administrative region and county directly managed by the province.

4. Most discussion and conclusion sections do not contain citations.

Response: Thank you for your careful review. In the revised discussion and conclusion sections, we cite some important literature to explain the impact of rural settlement spatial pattern change, future layout direction and measures to promote the sustainable development of rural areas. Based on the comments of the reviewers, we improved the discussion and conclusion sections, and added citations. All revisions are marked in red in the article. 

5. You should compare your results with similar studies from China or other countries.

Response: In the conclusion section, based on the overall trend of the evolution of Rural settlements in China and the results of rural settlements in Western Europe are compared. At the regional level, we add the research results of rural settlements in specific regions of China as validation, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the loess hilly and gully region. The contents are as follows: The results of this study show that the land area of rural settlements in China increased by 1.35 million hectares from 1995 to 2015, with 88.92% of prefecture-level administrative units seeing an increase in rural settlement area, which was basically consistent with the development trend of rural settlements in western European countries in the mid-20th century. Regionally, the expansion in rural settlement area was mainly concentrated in central and western China, which verifies the previous studies on regional rural settlements, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the loess hilly and gully region. The ability of rural settlements to attract residents has weakened, with 90.30% of administrative units experiencing a decline in the population per unit of rural settlement area.

Reviewer 2 Report

First, I would like to congratulate the authors for the paper, which is very interesting and whose theme is totally related to the Land journal. I think the investigation is clear, well planned and well resolved. Next, I present a series of comments that the authors should consider:

• The bibliographic review must be broader, especially that referring to the methods used in the research.
• Research hypothesis and the objective of the study should be stated more clearly and concisely.
• Have the calculated and analyzed indices been created exclusively in this research or are they taken from other studies?It is something that is not clear.
• Kernel density should be better explained in the methodological section, not directly in the results, as well as its use should be justified supported by other studies.In the same way, the rest of the methods used also must be explained.
• The discussion presented are basically conclusions.In this paper, the results obtained are not debated with those of other studies.

Best wishes.

Author Response

Thank you for your precious comments and advice. Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made corrections which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewer’s comments are as flowing:

 

1. The bibliographic review must be broader, especially that referring to the methods used in the research.

Response: Thank you for your precious comments and advice. In the introduction section, we have now added the literature of the application method, with emphasis on describing the application of the method relevant to this study. In terms of methods, the description of village distribution and original form has been transformed into quantitative analysis, the behavioral revolution, and cultural transformation. Landscape types and land use of rural settlements are explored based on GIS technology, and landscape ecology and kernel density analysis are often applied to rural settlements.

2. Research hypothesis and the objective of the study should be stated more clearly and concisely.

Response: Thanks very much for taking the time to review this manuscript. In the introduction section, we have now added highlight the novelty and contribution of this research. Through literature review, we found that previous studies on rural settlements focused on specific areas, such as the Yangtze River Delta, The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region or a single county. However, due to the complexity and diversity of regional types in China, it is necessary to adopt different development policies based on different locational conditions, natural endowments and economic social development levels to promote the sustainable development of rural areas. There are few studies on changes in the scale, shape, and distribution of rural settlements in China, which has limited our understanding of the overall pattern and regional differences of rural settlements across China from a vertical perspective.

3. Have the calculated and analyzed indices been created exclusively in this research or are they taken from other studies? It is something that is not clear.

Response: What needs illustration is that Formula (1) and (2) are constructed by the author, while Formula (3) and (4) are based on other research methods and marked with their sources.

4. Kernel density should be better explained in the methodological section, not directly in the results, as well as its use should be justified supported by other studies. In the same way, the rest of the methods used also must be explained.

Response: Thank you for your careful review. In Formula (4), we have added the explanation of the Kernel density and cited other studies. Based on ArcGIS 10.2, grid calculation of rural settlement area in the late and early stages of the study was carried out. Factor transition point tool was used to extract the central point of rural settlement patch, and kernel density tool was used to generate the spatial distribution map of rural settlement kernel density. In the process of estimating the spatial distribution of rural settlements, the density estimation of rural settlements is selected after the area weighting of rural settlements.

In addition, what needs illustration is that Formula (1) (2) are constructed and explained by the author, and Formula (3) refers to methods used in other studies and marked with their sources. 

5. The discussion presented are basically conclusions. In this paper, the results obtained are not debated with those of other studies.

Response: In order to fit the research content and make the discussion more instructive, as the reviewer said, the discussion presented is basically conclusions. According to the comments of the reviewers, the contents directly expressing the research results were deleted in the discussion section, and the comments were added and marked in red.

In addition, we compare our results with similar studies from China or other countries in the conclusion section. Specifically, based on the overall trend of the evolution of Rural settlements in China and the results of rural settlements in Western Europe are compared. At the regional level, we add the research results of rural settlements in specific regions of China as validation, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the loess hilly and gully region.

Reviewer 3 Report

This study used detailed national land use data from satellite imagery interpretation, socioeconomic statistics, and field survey data, to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns governing rural settlements in China, from the perspectives of settlement expansion, population agglomeration capacity, shape changes, spatial pattern changes, and the directional characteristics of settlement location choice, and to assess the impact of key socioeconomic factors on the evolution of those spatio-temporal patterns.  The authors hope that this study will contribute to the future revitalization of China’s rural areas and the reconstruction of settlement spaces, as well as serve as a reference for the structural optimization of rural settlements in the course of rapid urbanization in developing countries.

The interesting results indicate the China’s rural settlements experienced significant changes in the period 1995-2015, as 88.92% of prefectural-level administrative units saw an increase in rural settlement area, with total settlement size increasing by 1.35 million hectares, and settlement area sprawl index values can be summarized as “high in the west and low in the east.” Second, in the two-decade study period, the population agglomeration capacity of rural settlements in China continuously weakened, and regional rural settlement patterns became more complex and irregular. The scale and scope of the disappearance of rural settlement areas in the northeast and southeast regions was relatively drastic, and the kernel density value of settlements dropped significantly. Third, the increase in rural settlement land area is concentrated in low-altitude and low-slope areas, with a significant tendency to be near water and roads. Fourth, social and economic factors, such as per capita net income of rural residents, the proportion of the population employed in agriculture, the size and structure of the permanent rural population, local fiscal revenue, and urbanization level are the main factors that cause changes in settlement space.

The research problem undertaken is important both from a cognitive and practical point of view. The methodological part and the selection of literature on the subject do not raise any objections from the reviewer. It would be advisable to highlight the purpose of the research and analyzes carried out, and then refer to its implementation in more detail in the Conclusion section. In this section, I would also expect broader recommendations for practice.

Author Response

Dear reviewer,

We are very grateful for your comments on the manuscript. According to your advice, we revised the relevant part of the manuscript. All of your questions were answered as follows.

Comments: It would be advisable to highlight the purpose of the research and analysis carried out. And then refer to its implementation in more detail in the Conclusion section. In this section, I would also expect broader recommendations for practice.

Response: In the introduction section, we have now added highlight the novelty and contribution of this research. Through literature review, we found that previous studies on rural settlements focused on specific areas, such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, or a single county. However, due to the complexity and diversity of regional types in China, it is necessary to adopt different development policies based on different locational conditions, natural endowments, and economic social development levels to promote the sustainable development of rural areas. There are few studies on changes in the scale, shape, and distribution of rural settlements in China, which has limited our understanding of the overall pattern and regional differences of rural settlements across China from a vertical perspective.

In the conclusion section, we compare our results with similar studies from China or other countries. Specifically, based on the overall trend of the evolution of Rural settlements in China and the results of rural settlements in Western Europe are compared. At the regional level, we add the research results of rural settlements in specific regions of China as validation, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the loess hilly and gully region, which verifies the previous studies on regional rural settlements. The key to optimizing the spatial layout of rural settlements is scientific planning and zoning implementation. Therefore, we propose more practical suggestions. The spatial distribution of rural settlements in southeast China is seriously decentralized, so it is necessary to coordinate the development space of rural industries and promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Northeast China and other regions are traditional agricultural intensive planting areas, with large per capita rural settlement area and serious hollowing out of the countryside.  Our top priority is to solve the problem of "hollow villages" and improve the rural living environment. In addition, it is urgent to deal with the relationship between land use and ecological environment protection and rationally plan new rural settlements in northwest China.

 

Reviewer 4 Report

Both the title and the abstract link the expansion of cities with changes in the spatial structure of rural settlements. Subsequently, however, there is no clear interrelationship. There is undoubtedly a global process of concentration of activities and population in cities, with the consequent abandonment of rural settlements. Despite this, there are large areas in China (North, West and Central), the most rural and backward areas, where rural settlements are growing.

Only the documentary sources used and, above all, the main results are mentioned in the abstract.

In the key words, "spatio-temporal evolution" and "influencing factors" are excessively generic and indistinct expressions for possible searches by other researchers. Both could be dispensed with and something could be added on the process of "urban concentration" and on "spatial patterns of settlement", although the issue of urban concentration is hardly addressed throughout the article.

In the Introduction, the objectives should be more clearly defined and an in-depth review of the topic is missing.

Continuing with the introduction, a fundamental aspect is the definition of "rural settlement", as it is often very different in different countries and one must know precisely which units one is working with and how they are distributed in the territory. Here it is defined - in a very generic and imprecise way – as “A rural settlement is a population of a certain size…” (line 36-37).

Lines 50-51 state that “The international community has long been concerned about the changes in the size and number of rural settlements”. Smaller settlements are abandoned (as early as the 19th century), as they lack services and employment, and new, sprawling populations emerge in peri-urban areas to form agglomerations, conurbations and large metropolitan areas over time. Smaller settlements have been abandoned (since the 19th century), as they lack services and employment, and new populations have sprung up in the peri-urban areas, with uncontrolled growth, until agglomerations, conurbations and large metropolitan areas are formed over time. In the most rural and underdeveloped areas, settlements are abandoned, but their territorial distribution and urban structure is maintained for decades. However, nothing seems to change.

As for section 2 on materials and methods, data from satellite data, socio-economic data and surveys are used. As this is a study of the whole territory of China, it is clear that these are already elaborated materials from different sources. It is not clear that all the thousands of rural settlements can be analysed by remote sensing to study their formal or structural changes. The same is true for socio-economic data, which will later be reflected at prefecture level. And it is not known how the field surveys of the different researchers, which must be very different according to the objectives and topics pursued, can be used, nor are they used afterwards. Finally, it is not clear whether all these resources are available from 1995 to 2015, and all these aspects need to be specified. This heading should be expanded and made more specific.

In section 2.2.1, "n" does not appear in the formula, because it is not really necessary, unless an average annual growth rate is intended. The "n" should be deleted.

In 2.2.2, firstly, the improvement of infrastructure does not depend on farmers' incomes, as it is the government's responsibility (162-164). Per capita income and the proportion of people engaged in agriculture are used as indicators and factors of change. It is very likely that farmers' incomes do not depend exclusively on agricultural resources, but on other sectors of activity, either in the settlement itself or, more often, in nearby towns. It should be borne in mind that the income of farming households is composed of the income of all members of the household and not only of the head of the household. Regarding the second variable, if only the population engaged in agriculture is used, it is possible that changes in settlements are due more to income from other sectors of activity. Total household income and its origin should be used.

In point 2) of this same section, it is mentioned that changes in settlements depend on the rural population. However, in developed countries, these changes do not always depend on the rural population, but on the urban population, due to the construction of second and holiday homes. It is very likely that this will also happen in China now or in the near future.

Another indicator is the ageing of the population. It should be borne in mind that this ageing is a characteristic of rural areas, due to the fact that they have suffered an intense previous emigration, always selective of young people: the birth rate decreases and ageing and mortality increase. As a result, the population tends to shrink and the housing stock empties as these older people die. But empty houses and urban planning remain for decades. Remote sensing cannot detect these aspects.

Finally, the indicator of the level of urbanisation is mentioned. How is this indicator measured? It should be specified.

Virtually all prefectures have experienced an increase in RSI indices, only in some small prefectures in the East has RSI decreased. The Chinese population, although tending to stabilise, has undoubtedly continued to grow in recent decades and, as a result, rural settlements have also had to expand, to a lesser extent those in the east, as there has been more migration to the big cities. Moreover, west of the Hu Line is home to only 6% of China's population, in an area of about 60% of the entire territory. In this more rural and poorer area, in addition to population growth, there has also been a government policy that has facilitated Han immigration to some prefectures in this vast territory. Nor have population policies been applied equally to all ethnic groups. These issues would need to be explored further to provide a more accurate explanation.

The following paragraph states that urbanisation has weakened the "capacity of rural settlements to attract people". In fact, their capacity index has been reduced, with the rural population "declining rapidly". No logical explanation is given for this: the rural population is reduced, but the area of settlements continues to expand.

In the results, prefectures are basically referred to, but the mapping seems to be done with administrative units of provinces. The administrative boundaries of these units do not coincide on all maps, perhaps for formal reasons, but these boundaries should be clear on all maps. In any case, this should be clarified.

In 3.3 it is mentioned that the shape of settlements has become increasingly irregular, but not all construction "has been haphazard", as the government has pursued some rural housing policies, which should be picked up or at least their impact on settlements analysed.

In Fig. 4, some satellite images between 2006-2009 and 2020 are shown. They are very expressive and look good. However, if this is the main source to demonstrate these changes, they should be images from 1995 and 2015, the time period of the article. And, on the other hand, the images for the southwestern mountainous area, where in some of its provinces and prefectures the most important RSI changes have occurred, would be missing.

In section 3.4, as the authors themselves acknowledge, the spatial structure of settlements is very stable, it always is, but this is not consistent with some previous judgements and results.

In the next paragraph, there is mention of great economic and social development in Central and Western China, but despite the policies pursued in this regard, it is still rural, poor and sparsely populated China, although progress has undoubtedly been made.

In section 3.6, it is indicated that socio-economic factors drive and explain changes in the spatial-temporal patterns of rural settlements. However, it is territorial and macroeconomic policies, which precede socio-economic changes, that are the first and most important drivers of these changes, both positive and negative. The government's macroeconomic policies in this period have been very successful in achieving China's great socio-economic development, although it has been a very unbalanced development. It would be interesting to take them into account.

The authors go on to state that "the higher the proportion of people employed in agriculture, the smaller the change in rural settlement pattern". This is true, but seems to contradict what is stated above (314-316). It should be revised or better expressed.

It is not normal for local governments to have sufficient capacity to change rural settlements, even if tax revenues increase somewhat. It would be worthwhile to review the text, since on the one hand it mentions the progressive abandonment of rural settlements, and on the other hand it states that the improvement of the living environment in these settlements "attracted people to live in the countryside". To what extent are rural settlements being abandoned and to what extent is there an attraction and in-migration to them? (338-354).

In the Discussion, it is noted that "In contrast to the rapid economic and social development of the eastern region, the development of the central and western regions has been slow..." (365-368). This seems to contradict what is stated in lines 255-259.

In the second paragraph of the Discussion it is stated that "the ability of rural settlements to attract residents has weakened, the hollowing out of rural areas has been exacerbated..." (380-383). This is contradicted by the findings. It needs to be revised or reworded, as it is confusing.

In conclusion, it is logical that the area of settlements in low-lying and gently sloping areas is increasing, because most of them are located in the eastern area, with these characteristics. But it would be necessary to define what rural settlements are, because many of these traditional settlements have become, in this eastern area, peri-urban settlements or settlements within large metropolitan areas, with their main occupation outside the agricultural sector.

The proposed measures on settlement size, agglomeration capacity, more or less irregular expansion and territorial layout have little to do with the "comprehensive revitalisation of these settlements". This revitalisation must be socio-economic in the first place. Of all this, it is the last sentence that is most apt, which must be an integral and region-based rural development.

The article is very ambitious in analysing thousands of rural settlements across the country, with obvious territorial differences. It would have been more convenient to focus on case studies characteristic of the different areas in order to go much deeper into all the issues raised. As a result, the results and conclusions are very generic and sometimes seemingly contradictory.

Author Response

Dear reviewer,

Thank you for your precious comments and advice. Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made corrections which we hope meet with approval. Revised portions are marked in red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responses to the reviewer’s comments are as flowing:

1. Both the title and the abstract link the expansion of cities with changes in the spatial structure of rural settlements. Subsequently, however, there is no clear interrelationship. There is undoubtedly a global process of concentration of activities and population in cities, with the consequent abandonment of rural settlements. Despite this, there are large areas in China (North, West and Central), the most rural and backward areas, where rural settlements are growing. Only the documentary sources used and, above all, the main results are mentioned in the abstract.

Response: In the title and the abstract, the paper gives the background of this research. That is, the rapid urbanization process in China has caused drastic changes in the core elements of rural development such as population, land and industry. This paper focuses on the analysis of the pattern evolution of the core element of rural settlement land. We only take urban expansion as the background material, rather than explore the connection between urban expansion and rural settlements. As the reviewer pointed, there is a link the expansion of cities with changes in the spatial structure of rural settlements. Thus, this paper also selects urbanization as one of the influencing factors to analyze the relationship between urbanization and the change of rural settlements.

2. In the key words, "spatio-temporal evolution" and "influencing factors" are excessively generic and indistinct expressions for possible searches by other researchers. Both could be dispensed with and something could be added on the process of "urban concentration" and on "spatial patterns of settlement", although the issue of urban concentration is hardly addressed throughout the article.

Response: In the keywords, as the reviewer said, "Spatio-temporal evolution" and "influencing factors" are excessively generic and indistinct expressions for possible searches by other researchers. Therefore, we changed these two keywords and added "spatial patterns of settlement". In fact, this paper mainly focuses on the analysis of rural areas, so there is no need to add the word "urban concentration".

3. In the Introduction, the objectives should be more clearly defined and an in-depth review of the topic is missing. Continuing with the introduction, a fundamental aspect is a definition of "rural settlement", as it is often very different in different countries and one must know precisely which units one is working with and how they are distributed in the territory. Here it is defined - in a very generic and imprecise way – as “A rural settlement is a population of a certain size…” (line 36-37). Lines 50-51 state that “The international community has long been concerned about the changes in the size and number of rural settlements”. Smaller settlements are abandoned (as early as the 19th century), as they lack services and employment, and new, sprawling populations emerge in peri-urban areas to form agglomerations, conurbations and large metropolitan areas over time. Smaller settlements have been abandoned (since the 19th century), as they lack services and employment, and new populations have sprung up in the peri-urban areas, with uncontrolled growth, until agglomerations, conurbations, and large metropolitan areas are formed over time. In most rural and underdeveloped areas, settlements are abandoned, but their territorial distribution and urban structure are maintained for decades. However, nothing seems to change.

Response: we revised the introduction section according to all reviewers. Firstly, we added to highlight the novelty and contribution of this research. According to the literature review, we found that previous studies on rural settlements focused on specific areas, such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region, or a single county. However, due to the complexity and diversity of regional types in China, it is necessary to adopt different development policies based on different locational conditions, natural endowments, and economic social development levels to promote the sustainable development of rural areas. There are few studies on changes in the scale, shape, and distribution of rural settlements in China, which has limited our understanding of the overall pattern and regional differences of rural settlements across China from a vertical perspective.

In addition, we further clarified the definition of rural settlements. Usually, a rural settlement is a population of a certain size that is engaged in work related to agriculture production, and it is the phenomenon, form, and process of people gathering in a specific geographical space. The spatial pattern evolution of rural settlements can be viewed as reflective of the man-land relationship in rural space during the process of rapid urbanization, as it reflects the relationship between human activities and the surrounding environment under different productivity conditions. This study considers that rural settlements are the living places of various forms of human beings in rural areas, including all villages and a small number of industrial enterprises and commercial service facilities.

4. As for section 2 on materials and methods, data from satellite data, socio-economic data and surveys are used. As this is a study of the whole territory of China, it is clear that these are already elaborated materials from different sources. It is not clear that all the thousands of rural settlements can be analysed by remote sensing to study their formal or structural changes. The same is true for socio-economic data, which will later be reflected at the prefecture level. And it is not known how the field surveys of the different researchers, which must be very different according to the objectives and topics pursued, can be used, nor are they used afterward. Finally, it is not clear whether all these resources are available from 1995 to 2015, and all these aspects need to be specified. This heading should be expanded and made more specific.

Response: In the materials and methods, the data required for this study include natural data and social and economic data, which obviously need to be obtained from different sources. and have been explained in detail in the paper. What we need to explain is that both remote sensing data and social and economic data are uniformly obtained from the national level, and data source standards are consistent to ensure data quality. Rural settlement spatial data derived from China's land use remote sensing interpretation data from the Resource and Environment Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn/Default.aspx). This set of data divides land use into 6 categories and 25 subcategories. Rural settlement land is a subcategory of construction land. Therefore, we think that all the thousands of rural settlements can be analyzed by remote sensing to study their formal or structural changes.

5. In section 2.2.1, "n" does not appear in the formula, because it is not really necessary, unless an average annual growth rate is intended. The "n" should be deleted.

Response: We are very sorry for the mistakes in this manuscript and the inconvenience they caused in your reading. In section 2.2.1,we have deleted the n, n is the time span of the study in years.

6. In 2.2.2, firstly, the improvement of infrastructure does not depend on farmers' incomes, as it is the government's responsibility (162-164). Per capita income and the proportion of people engaged in agriculture are used as indicators and factors of change. It is very likely that farmers' incomes do not depend exclusively on agricultural resources, but on other sectors of activity, either in the settlement itself or, more often, in nearby towns. It should be borne in mind that the income of farming households is composed of the income of all members of the household and not only of the head of the household. Regarding the second variable, if only the population engaged in agriculture is used, it is possible that changes in settlements are due more to income from other sectors of activity. Total household income and its origin should be used.

Response: Thank you for the suggestion. The improvement of infrastructure does not directly depend on farmers' incomes. We deleted the relative words.

7. In point 2) of this same section, it is mentioned that changes in settlements depend on the rural population. However, in developed countries, these changes do not always depend on the rural population, but on the urban population, due to the construction of second and holiday homes. It is very likely that this will also happen in China now or in the near future. Another indicator is the aging of the population. It should be borne in mind that this aging is a characteristic of rural areas, due to the fact that they have suffered an intense previous emigration, always selective of young people: the birth rate decreases and ageing and mortality increase. As a result, the population tends to shrink and the housing stock empties as these older people die. But empty houses and urban planning remain for decades. Remote sensing cannot detect these aspects. Finally, the indicator of the level of urbanisation is mentioned. How is this indicator measured? It should be specified.

Response: As the reviewer mentioned, the changes of rural settlement patterns were influenced by many factors, such as macro policy and economic development level. However, factors such as macro policies apply to studies at micro scales, such as individual villages or townships, which are difficult to quantify on a national scale. Many studies have also confirmed that economic strength, population density, government policies and other factors of different countries or regions have a significant impact on rural settlements. Therefore, this study assumes that changes in the spatial pattern of rural settlements are primarily affected by the level of rural economic development, the number and structure of the rural permanent population, urbanization level, and the overall level of regional development. Moreover, we also added an explanation of the indicator factors. The indicator of the level of urbanization is calculated by the resident population of the urban and the total population of the region.

8. Virtually all prefectures have experienced an increase in RSI indices, only in some small prefectures in the East has RSI decreased. The Chinese population, although tending to stabilise, has undoubtedly continued to grow in recent decades and, as a result, rural settlements have also had to expand, to a lesser extent those in the east, as there has been more migration to the big cities. Moreover, west of the Hu Line is home to only 6% of China's population, in an area of about 60% of the entire territory. In this more rural and poorer area, in addition to population growth, there has also been a government policy that has facilitated Han immigration to some prefectures in this vast territory. Nor have population policies been applied equally to all ethnic groups. These issues would need to be explored further to provide a more accurate explanation.

Response: Thank you for your valuable suggestion. To be more clearly express results section, we have added a more accurate explanation for the variation in index values in the results. Moreover, western China is a concentrated residential area of ethnic minorities, and the population policy to encourage fertility is also a factor that can not be ignored to promote the expansion of rural settlements.

 

9. The following paragraph states that urbanisation has weakened the "capacity of rural settlements to attract people". In fact, their capacity index has been reduced, with the rural population "declining rapidly". No logical explanation is given for this: the rural population is reduced, but the area of settlements continues to expand.

Response: The RCI index was reduced obviously. It is a common phenomenon that rural population reduced but rural settlement explanation. The reason is that rural residents build new houses around the villages or along roads to improve their living conditions, but old houses are preserved. The paper explained it in section 3.3

10. In the results, prefectures are basically referred to, but the mapping seems to be done with administrative units of provinces. The administrative boundaries of these units do not coincide on all maps, perhaps for formal reasons, but these boundaries should be clear on all maps. In any case, this should be clarified.

Response: This research took prefecture-level districts as the analysis units. They are directly administered by provinces with a total of 361 subjects. We redraw all pictures in the paper, and added the boundaries of these units.

11. In 3.3 it is mentioned that the shape of settlements has become increasingly irregular, but not all construction "has been haphazard", as the government has pursued some rural housing policies, which should be picked up or at least their impact on settlements analysed.

Response: Thank you for the suggestion. In fact, most of villages have no construction planning before 2010 year. Many new houses were built along the road or out of the old villages. The paper gives the example in figure 4.

 

12. In Fig. 4, some satellite images between 2006-2009 and 2020 are shown. They are very expressive and look good. However, if this is the main source to demonstrate these changes, they should be images from 1995 and 2015, the time period of the article. And, on the other hand, the images for the southwestern mountainous area, where in some of its provinces and prefectures the most important RSI changes have occurred, would be missing.

Response: the pictures in Fig. 4 were download from GoogleEarth to show the changes of rural settlement shape and form. Since there were no high-resolution images before 2006, the period did not coincide with 1995-2015. Whatever, Fig.4 helped to understand the rural settlement changes.

13. In section 3.4, as the authors themselves acknowledge, the spatial structure of settlements is very stable, it always is, but this is not consistent with some previous judgements and results.

Response: we made a mistake in this section. According to the kernel density, the distributions of rural settlements were stable in China.

14. In the next paragraph, there is mention of great economic and social development in Central and Western China, but despite the policies pursued in this regard, it is still rural, poor and sparsely populated China, although progress has undoubtedly been made.

Response: It was true that there is still several poor and sparsely populated regions in Central and Western China. But they have made great progress in economic and social development.

15. In section 3.6, it is indicated that socio-economic factors drive and explain changes in the spatial-temporal patterns of rural settlements. However, it is territorial and macroeconomic policies, which precede socio-economic changes, that are the first and most important drivers of these changes, both positive and negative. The government's macroeconomic policies in this period have been very successful in achieving China's great socio-economic development, although it has been a very unbalanced development. It would be interesting to take them into account.

Response: In section 3.6, in the construction of the multiple linear regression model, we have added detailed explanations about the influencing factors of rural settlement change, and added relevant explanations in this part. Revised portions are marked in red in the paper.

16. The authors go on to state that "the higher the proportion of people employed in agriculture, the smaller the change in rural settlement pattern". This is true, but seems to contradict what is stated above (314-316). It should be revised or better expressed. It is not normal for local governments to have sufficient capacity to change rural settlements, even if tax revenues increase somewhat. It would be worthwhile to review the text, since on the one hand it mentions the progressive abandonment of rural settlements, and on the other hand it states that the improvement of the living environment in these settlements "attracted people to live in the countryside". To what extent are rural settlements being abandoned and to what extent is there an attraction and in-migration to them? (338-354).

Response: In section3.2, We focused on spatio-temporal features of changes in rural settlement capacity. We have given a reasonable explanation for the decrease of the rural population while the settlement area continues to expand in section 3.6. The reason for this may be China’s dual system for urban and rural residents in the past, whereby the household registration system restricted people from the countryside settling in cities and meant they were not entitled to equal access to education, medical care, and other public services. Many migrant workers, therefore, are still "amphibious" residents, who need to maintain or renovate their rural homes for the sake of their children’s education and to look after their parents, leading to the expansion of rural settlements.

 

17. In the Discussion, it is noted that "In contrast to the rapid economic and social development of the eastern region, the development of the central and western regions has been slow..." (365-368). This seems to contradict what is stated in lines 255-259. In the second paragraph of the Discussion it is stated that "the ability of rural settlements to attract residents has weakened, the hollowing out of rural areas has been exacerbated..." (380-383). This is contradicted by the findings. It needs to be revised or reworded, as it is confusing.

Response: In the discussion section, regional development occurs in stages. There is no denying that the development imbalance between China's east and west has long existed, and the development level of the eastern region is higher than that of the central and western regions. Here we express the view that the East has gone through a period of continuous expansion of housing demand due to rising incomes, while the West is experiencing or will soon face this development process. Therefore, this view is not inconsistent with the previous results. Similarly, in the second paragraph of the Discussion, the author expresses some views on the future pattern of Rural settlements in China based on international rural development experience, which is not in conflict with the research results of the paper.  

18. In conclusion, it is logical that the area of settlements in low-lying and gently sloping areas is increasing, because most of them are located in the eastern area, with these characteristics. But it would be necessary to define what rural settlements are, because many of these traditional settlements have become, in this eastern area, peri-urban settlements or settlements within large metropolitan areas, with their main occupation outside the agricultural sector. The proposed measures on settlement size, agglomeration capacity, more or less irregular expansion and territorial layout have little to do with the "comprehensive revitalisation of these settlements". This revitalisation must be socio-economic in the first place. Of all this, it is the last sentence that is most apt, which must be an integral and region-based rural development.

Response: In the conclusion section, we compare our results with similar studies from China or other countries. Specifically, based on the overall trend of the evolution of Rural settlements in China and the results of rural settlements in Western Europe are compared. At the regional level, we add the research results of rural settlements in specific regions of China as validation, such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the loess hilly and gully region, which verifies the previous studies on regional rural settlements. The key to optimizing the spatial layout of rural settlements is scientific planning and zoning implementation. Therefore, we propose more practical suggestions. The spatial distribution of rural settlements in southeast China is seriously decentralized, so it is necessary to coordinate the development space of rural industries and promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Northeast China and other regions are traditional agricultural intensive planting areas, with large per capita rural settlement area and serious hollowing out of the countryside.  Our top priority is to solve the problem of "hollow villages" and improve the rural living environment. In addition, it is urgent to deal with the relationship between land use and ecological environment protection and rationally plan new rural settlements in northwest China.

We appreciate your efforts in reviewing our manuscript during this unprecedented and challenging time. We wish good health to you and your family. Your careful review has helped to make our study clearer and more comprehensive.

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

Thank you for making significant changes and answering the comments. Just  minor comments: 

1- Please comment why the R-squared of RCI model is significantly higher than other models?

2- Please have a look at the following paper and cite it if you find it helpful. 

Exploring the relationship between spatial driving forces of urban expansion and socioeconomic segregation, November 2018, Habitat International 81:33-44, DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.09.001

 

Author Response

Dear reviewer，

Thanks very much for taking the time to re-review this manuscript. We appreciate your recognition of our work. We have revised it according to the comments. Based on the instructions provided in your letter, we uploaded the revised manuscript. Please find my revisions in the re-submitted files.

 

1- Please comment why the R-squared of RCI model is significantly higher than other models?

Response: Thank you for your careful review. In the multiple linear regression model, R square represents the goodness of fit of the regression model, and the larger the value, the better the fit. But R squared does not determine the validity of the results of the regression equation. Our results show that R-squared of RCI model is significantly higher than other models. This means that the explanatory variables we choose in the RCI model can better explain the changes in RCI index values. In other words, the factors we assume have an important influence on the rural settlement capacity index. In addition, these factors are still valid for other models, but there will also be unselected factors that have an important impact on the index change, which is what we need to focus on next.

2- Please have a look at the following paper and cite it if you find it helpful. Exploring the relationship between spatial driving forces of urban expansion and socioeconomic segregation, November 2018, Habitat International 81:33-44, DOI:10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.09.001

Response: Thank you for your suggestion. We read the article carefully. The results revealed that settlement location selection preferences of different socio-spatial classes and differences in driving forces are identified. It has good reference value and we cited it.

Reviewer 2 Report

Dear authors,

thank you very much for taking into account my comments.

I think that the manuscript has been sufficiently improved to be publicated in Land. I have reviewed it and author have taked into account my comments in correct way.

Best wishes.

Author Response

Dear reviewer,

We appreciate your approval of the revised manuscript. Your careful review has helped to make our study clearer and more comprehensive. 

Best regards,

the authours

Reviewer 4 Report

The authors have endeavoured to respond to all points and in so doing have improved the article, although there remain some difficult issues to answer which they will need to consider in future articles.

Author Response

Dear reviewer,

Thank you for your comments. We appreciate your efforts in reviewing our manuscript during this unprecedented and challenging time. Your careful review has helped to make our study clearer and more comprehensive. Some difficult issues from reviewers will be considered in future studies.

Best wishes,

The authors