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19 June 2023

Risk Assessment Model System for Aquatic Animal Introduction Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

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Sanya Nanfan Research Institute, Hainan University, Sanya 572022, China
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Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
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Hainan Provincial Key Laboratory for Tropical Hydrobiology and Biotechnology, College of Marine Science, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Animals2023, 13(12), 2035;https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13122035
This article belongs to the Section Aquatic Animals
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Simple Summary

Invasive species (IS) can upset both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems which, in turn, can negatively affect production and economic development. Thus, many countries understand the importance of performing risk assessments on the potential for species to invade an ecosystem. Here, we report on our development of a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the introduction of invasive aquatic animals into China’s inland waters. This model is based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We propose that the use of this model can provide the basis to better understand the ecological impact of invasive aquatic animals and also effective protocols for risk management should an invasion take place.

Abstract

The spread of invasive species (IS) has the potential to upset ecosystem balances. In extreme cases, this can hinder economical utilization of both aquatic (fisheries) and terrestrial (agricultural) systems. As a result, many countries regard risk assessment of IS as an important process for solving the problem of biological invasion. Yet, some IS are purposefully introduced for what is seen as their potential economic benefits. Thus, conducting IS risk assessments and then formulating policies based on scientific information will allow protocols to be developed that can reduce problems associated with IS incursions, whether occurring purposefully or not. However, the risk assessment methods currently adopted by most countries use qualitative or semiquantitative methodologies. Currently, there is a mismatch between qualitative and quantitative assessments. Moreover, most assessment systems are for terrestrial animals. What is needed is an assessment system for aquatic animals; however, those currently available are relatively rudimentary. To fill this gap, we used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to build a risk assessment model system for aquatic IS. Our AHP has four primary indexes, twelve secondary indexes, and sixty tertiary indexes. We used this AHP to conduct quantitative risk assessments on five aquatic animals that are typically introduced in China, which have distinct biological characteristics, specific introduction purposes, and can represent different types of aquatic animals. The assessment results show that the risk grade for Pterygoplichthys pardalis is high; the risk grade for Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Crassostrea gigas, and Trachemys scripta elegans is medium; and the grade risk for Ambystoma mexicanum is low. Risk assessment of the introduction of aquatic animals using our AHP is effective, and it provides support for the introduction and healthy breeding of aquatic animals. Thus, the AHP model can provide a basis for decision-making risk management concerning the introduction of species.

1. Introduction

Biological invasions are considered a major driving factor in the vanishing of biodiversity [1]. Invasive species (IS) can cause serious damage to an ecosystem, which can lead to negative impacts on human society; these impacts include economic losses caused by trade and agricultural production obstacles and threats to human health [2,3]. An IS is a non-native species that has invasive biological characteristics (such as strong adaptability and spread capability) or may have negative impacts on ecology, agriculture, fisheries, food, or human health, including artificially introduced and unintentionally arrived nonindigenous species [4,5,6]. Another definition of IS is a non-native species that can have harmful effects on the economy, environment, or human health (supported by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)) [7]. An IS affects the normal functioning of ecosystems through mechanisms such as predation, hybridization, and competition. An IS can also have indirect impacts, such as reducing the abundance of local species [8]. Although there are very few ecosystems in the world that are free of introduced species, an increasing proportion of biomes, ecosystems, and habitats are being impacted by IS [9].
Once the ecological tipping point has been passed, the impact on ecosystems by IS may be irreversible [10]. Many IS incursions are because of human activities [11], such as overexploitation of local biological resources, religious beliefs, and shipping trade. These have significantly altered biodiversity and community structures on a global scale; the result of this is to add serious socioeconomic burdens, as well as losses of ecosystem services [12,13,14,15]. Large-scale species migration and biological invasion can initiate sharp declines in the number of native species and the introduction of unknown pathogens. Some inductions of IS have been for the purpose of economic development (agricultural production, trade, tourism, etc.); this has become increasingly frequent in recent decades and, as a result, are emerging as a significant threat to global biodiversity and economic losses [9,16,17,18].
To address the problem of biological invasion caused by the introduction of IS into agricultural, some developed countries (e.g., EU region) have utilized risk assessment (RA) as an important measure to strengthen the risk analysis of non-native species invasion [11,19]. Risk analysis methodology was originally developed by the nuclear and aerospace industries to identify the likelihood of hazards. Thus, the scheme has gradually been applied to biological research [20]. Risk assessments are a fundamental part of risk analysis methodology. By conducting risk assessments on the entry, exposure, and consequences of introduced species and developing scientific introduction strategies based on the assessment results, the harm caused by IS can be effectively reduced [21]. However, upon reviewing risk assessment records from various countries around the world, we found that most of the assessment outcomes were based on the results of qualitative analysis obtained from monitoring reports of introduced species or outbreak records of related diseases in the species-exporting countries [22]. Compared with quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis cannot accurately address what actually happens to agricultural production. Thus, that assessment method has limitations, is ambiguous, is less accurate, and is less universal than quantitative analysis. In addition, quantitative analysis has the unique advantages of high testability, repeatability, comparability, and transparency [23].
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was proposed by the American operational research scientist Saaty in the 1970s. AHP skillfully combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis and has a wide range of application in the field of comprehensive evaluation [24]. After more than 40 years of research and development, the AHP has become one of the most mainstream multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) analysis methods, and its main advantages include simplicity, flexibility, and rigorous and strong operability [25]. Currently, AHP is widely used in animal production, resource utilization, natural disaster prevention and control, and other fields: Hadi Veisi proposed the application of the AHP in the multicriteria selection of agricultural irrigation systems [26]; Priyanka Yadav established a decision support system for the selection of biogas upgrade technologies based on the AHP [27]; and Mehmet Cihan Aydin combined geographic information systems with the AHP to assess the flood risk in Bitlis Province, Turkey [28]. Moreover, according to the various characteristics and objects of analysis, the AHP encompasses many different types, such as the hesitant analytic hierarchy process, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and the sparse analytic hierarchy process [29,30,31].
On a global scale, aquatic ecosystems are an important component in many regions; they provide many ecosystem services and, of course, are critical to modern aquaculture and animal husbandry [32,33]. Human-mediated introductions of aquatic animals with the purpose of improving agricultural economic development (either recreational and/or aquaculture) can alter the species composition of aquatic ecosystems and thereby change ecosystem functioning (the Japanese archipelago is an example) [34]. At the same time, these changes may have widespread consequences. For example, the opening of the Suez Canal has significantly changed the diversity of fish in the Mediterranean region, which has had an impact on Italy’s socioeconomic and human health [35]. With the continual expansion of these changes, aquatic bio-invasions have caused environmental issues worldwide, influencing the structure and function of water ecosystems globally, as well as imposing serious socioeconomic burdens [36,37]. Because of the more complex composition of aquatic ecosystems and their distinct differences from terrestrial ecosystems, there are significant differences in the management of non-native species between aquatic ecosystems and terrestrial ecosystems [38,39]. The negative impacts of IS on aquatic ecosystems (community composition, organic matter concentration, and water turbidity) tend to be worse after the invasion [40]. Currently, many risk management efforts regarding IS are aimed at controlling the invasion of terrestrial animals, while, by comparison, related research on risk management of aquatic ecosystems (such as marine ecosystems) is lagging behind [41]. Here, we established a quantifiable risk assessment model system for the introduction of aquatic animals on the basis of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) using China as the proposed importing country. We conducted quantitative risk assessments for five commonly introduced aquatic animals (including fish, crustaceans, shellfish, and amphibians) in southern China and ranked their risk levels based on the assessment results. Thus, the main objectives of the study were: (1) propose a risk assessment model system for the introduction of aquatic animals that is compatible with both species’ own risk, as well as the transmission disease risk for reference and use by other countries in the world; (2) optimize the existing qualitative or semiquantitative risk assessment system for aquatic animal introduction on the basis of the actual introduction of aquatic animals and relevant policies and regulations; (3) fill the gaps in the research related to the management of non-native species in aquatic ecosystems.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Index Composition of Risk Assessment Model System

If we want to carry out a specific quantitative risk assessment of an introduced non-native species, we must consider both the biological risk of the species itself and the risk of epidemic diseases (including epidemic diseases of wild and domestic aquatic animals and zoonotic diseases of aquatic animals) [42]. The biological risk of the species itself needs to be assessed on whether the introduction of the species will threaten indigenous species and their habitats, as well as the existing ecosystem and environment of the introduction site. Additionally, it is also important to consider whether relevant policies and regulations can provide a sufficient guarantee for safe species introduction [43,44,45]. The risk of infectious diseases should include a risk assessment of pathogen exposure; hazards to indigenous species (including becoming direct victims and pathogen vectors); consequences of disease outbreak; impacts on human health, social economy, and ecological environment; and other relevant factors [46,47,48]. Regarding the internationally advanced risk assessment system, we determined the indices of the risk assessment model system for the introduction of aquatic animals (see Table 1).
Table 1. The indices of the risk assessment system for the introduction of aquatic animals.

2.2. Calculation of Index Weights at All Levels

One of the core steps of the AHP is to form accurate pairwise comparison matrices defined by the users [49]. In this study, the steps to calculate the weight values were as follows: (1) first, we determined the decision-making objective, structured the decision hierarchy, and constructed the objectives from a broad perspective from the intermediate level to the alternative level; (2) then, we scored the importance of each peer-level index, discussed and summarized the scoring results, constructed pairwise comparison matrices, calculated them separately, and obtained the weight values; (3) finally, after calculating the weights, we verified the rationality of the weight coefficient distribution using MATLAB software to calculate the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, λ max, and the consistency index, CI. We then judged whether the distribution of the weight coefficient was reasonable (<0.1 is reasonable) according to the result obtained via the quotient of the average random consistency index, RI, and the consistency index, CI (the random consistency ratio) using the mathematical formula as follows: CI = (λ max − n)/(n − 1); CR = CI/RI (n is the number of indices selected for each criterion layer, the calculation results were carried to four decimal places) [50,51,52].
The relationships and roles of risk assessment indices are different. According to their contribution, they can be divided into multiple relationships, cumulative relationships, and substitution relationships. When the indices in the system are independent of each other and contribute independently to the value of the indices at the next level, their relationship is cumulative. The relationships among indices at all levels of this model system are cumulative. According to the calculation, the final function expression is:
Risk of introduction of imported aquatic animals (R): R = 0.3873R1 + 0.1397R2 + 0.2748R3 + 0.1982R4.
Hazard assessment of introduced species (R1): R1 = 0.6667P1 + 0.3333P2;
P1 = 0.6667p11 + 0.3333p12;
P2 = 0.0866p21 + 0.2150p22 + 0.0433p23 + 0.3408p24 + 0.2544p25 + 0.0599p26.
Entry assessment (R2): R2 = 0.0883P3 + 0.4824P4 + 0.2718P5 + 0.1575P6;
P3 = 0.0449p31 + 0.1760p32 + 0.1760p33 + 0.1803p34 + 0.0395p35 + 0.0960p36 + 0.0960p37 + 0.0606p38 + 0.1307p39;
P4 = 0.2488p41 + 0.5502p42 + 0.0826p43 + 0.1184p44;
P5 = 0.1402p51 + 0.2504p52 + 0.2055p53 + 0.1346p54 + 0.0710p55 + 0.0670p56 + 0.0633p57 + 0.0322p58 + 0.0358p59;
P6 = 0.1572p61 + 0.4596p62 + 0.2945p63 + 0.0887p64.
Exposure assessment (R3): R3 = 0.3759P7 + 0.1321P8 + 0.0867P9 + 0.4053P10;
P7 = 0.3250p71 + 0.1251p72 + 0.1937p73 + 0.3562p74;
P8 = 0.3338p81 + 0.5907p82 + 0.0755p83;
P9 = 0.5246p91 + 0.0918p92 + 0.3337p93 + 0.0499p94;
P10 = 0.1646p101 + 0.2792p102 + 0.3916p103 + 0.1646p104.
Consequence assessment (R4): R4 = 0.8000P11 + 0.2000P12;
P11 = 0.0602p111 + 0.1001p112 + 0.1767p113 + 0.3410p114 + 0.3220p115;
P12 = 0.3836p121 + 0.1918p122 + 0.1918p123 + 0.0708p124 + 0.0558p125 + 0.1062p126.

2.3. Quantitative Evaluation Criteria and Basis of Indices

The most prominent feature of quantitative assessment is that it provides a numerically defined threshold value of an empirically measurable quantity for each assessment index [23], which solves the problem of incommensurability among indices; clear evaluation criteria and bases can also eliminate (or reduce) the bias in evaluation results caused by subjective factors and increase the correctness and accuracy of the evaluation results. Our system divides the risk value of each tertiary index into six levels; that is, the risk is divided from low to high as follows: 0 (negligible risk), 1 (low risk), 2 (slight risk), 3 (medium risk), 4 (high risk), and 5 (extremely high risk), each tertiary index has the same assignment range. Users can score each index according to the literature and expert opinions. For the indices that need to be discussed and scored in the tertiary indices, in order to eliminate the deviation of assessment results caused by subjective factors, we designed more specific assignment situations and scoring evaluation rules. Users can discuss the indices, search for matching assignment situations in the evaluation rules, and score them on the basis of the actual situation. Refer to Table 2, Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5 for the specific assessment criteria and evaluation bases and Table 6 for the specific situation and scoring evaluation rules of the indices to be discussed.
Table 2. Assessment criteria for the hazard assessment of introduced species.
Table 3. Assessment criteria for the entry assessment.
Table 4. Assessment criteria for the exposure assessment.
Table 5. Assessment criteria for the consequence assessment.
Table 6. Specific situations and scoring evaluation rules for indices to be discussed.

2.4. Assessment of Introduction Risk (R): Setting of Risk Grade

We referred to the current international pest grading system and the management of non-native species grading, consulted the relevant literature and the grading method in the text, and combined the specific situation of the risk assessment model system to set the risk level as follows: when 0 < R ≤ 1, the risk is negligible, and the introduction can be carried out; when 1 < R ≤ 2, the risk is low, and the introduction can be carried out if the national policy allows; when 2 < R ≤ 3, the risk is medium, and limited introduction can be carried out, but strict management measures must be taken; when 3 < R ≤ 4, the risk is high, and introduction is not recommended; if the introduction is required, close communication customs and other relevant departments must be conducted, and strict introduction strategies and risk prevention and control measures must be developed; when 4 < R ≤ 5, the risk is extremely high, and introduction cannot take place.

2.5. Verification of the System’s Correctness and Rationality with Risk Assessment Examples

To verify the correctness and rationality of the above risk assessment system used in the actual introduction of aquatic animals, we selected five introduced aquatic animals cultivated in southern China, Pterygoplichthys pardalis, Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Crassostrea gigas, Trachemys scripta elegans, and Ambystoma mexicanum, for use in our model for the introduction risk assessment. If the assessment results are consistent with international assessment systems currently being used, and if they comply with the reference materials in the germplasm resource databases of most countries, it can be confirmed that the assessment results are realistic and effective, and the assessment system is rational.

3. Results and Analysis

3.1. Risk Assessment Examples: Evaluation of Indices at Different Grades

In this assessment, we used the following methods to score various indices: literature reviews; consultation with experts; participation in the work of relevant units such as the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources, and China Customs; observation of farms and aquariums with target species; and communication with aquaculture-related personnel. Table 7 shows the scoring results of each tertiary index of risk assessment. (Among these tertiary indices, some indices required discussion before scoring. See Tables S1–S5 for details on these indices.)
Table 7. Scoring of tertiary indices of introduced aquatic animals.

3.2. Calculation of Indices and Analysis of Assessment Results

According to the scoring of the tertiary index discussed in Section 3.2, we calculated the values of the secondary indices (P1–P12), primary indices (R1–R4), and total indices (R) of each introduced aquatic animal (see Table 8 for details).
Table 8. Calculation results for introduced aquatic animals.
According to the calculation, the order of the risk grade from large to small is as follows: Pterygoplichthys pardalis > Macrobrachium rosenbergii > Crassostrea gigas > Trachemys scripta elegans > Ambystoma mexicanum. The risk grade of Pterygoplichthys pardalis is high; if introduction is necessary, a scientific introduction strategy and risk prevention and control measures must be employed, and limited introduction must be carried out with the close cooperation of the customs and quarantine departments and other relevant units; the risk grades of Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Crassostrea gigas, and Trachemys scripta elegans are medium, so they can be introduced in a standard manner under strict management measures; the risk grade of Ambystoma mexicanum is low, and it can be introduced under the conditions permitted by the importing country’s national policy.
The assessment results are highly consistent with the assessment results of widely used international assessment systems and reference materials in germplasm resource databases of China and other countries.

4. Discussion

4.1. Discussion and Analysis of Assessment Results

The following results were obtained in this assessment. (1) The risk grade of Pterygoplichthys pardalis is high. Pterygoplichthys pardalis, commonly known as the armored catfish and first used as an aquarium pet, is an IS that endangers many aquatic ecosystems around the world. However, because of its wide-ranging tolerance, strong reproductive capacity, omnivorous feeding habits, and other characteristics, Pterygoplichthys pardalis has now established large wild populations in most rivers around the world, seriously affecting agricultural production and ecological environments of introduction areas. Moreover, Pterygoplichthys pardalis is a direct or indirect host of various pathogens, and natural spread caused by improper management can lead to unknown disease outbreaks, endangering local populations [53,54,55]. (2) The risk grade of Macrobrachium rosenbergii is medium; Macrobrachium rosenbergii represent a large category of aquaculture, namely, crustaceans, which have the potential not only to suppress the growth of local shrimp populations but also to become hosts (or intermediate hosts) to a variety of extremely dangerous pathogens [56]. Therefore, strict inspection and quarantine must be conducted during introduction, while ensuring that intermediate links, such as transportation and monitoring, can achieve the desired results. During breeding, it is necessary to optimize the layout of the breeding structure, improve awareness of disease prevention and control, and strengthen breeding management [57], such as controlling the physicochemical and biological factors in the cultivation process to improve immune resistance and reduce the risks to a controllable range [58]. (3) The risk grade of Crassostrea gigas is medium; as a shellfish widely introduced and cultivated around the world, Crassostrea gigas has high nutritional value and market demand [59,60]. Crassostrea gigas have strong adaptability and rapid growth performance, and shellfish are easier to manage in quarantine and transportation than fish and crustaceans. During the introduction and cultivation process, strengthening the inspection and control of diseases—as well as strengthening the management of Crassostrea gigas in various fisheries to avoid escape and dispersion during cultivation—can reduce the risk of Crassostrea gigas to a certain extent [61,62]. (4) The risk grade of Trachemys scripta elegans is medium. Although Trachemys scripta elegans is considered one of the 100 worst IS according to the IUCN and drives native freshwater turtles to consume suboptimal resources [63,64], the degree of control of non-native species is generally higher than that of pathogens. It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of the introduction and cultivation of Trachemys scripta elegans; prevent escape, diffusion, and random breeding; and strictly manage the areas where the Trachemys scripta elegans population settles, as Trachemys scripta elegans can coexist harmoniously with native species [65]. (5) The risk grade of Ambystoma mexicanum is low. Ambystoma mexicanum is a species protected by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) [66]; although artificial cultivation has been achieved in some countries, for most countries or regions around the world, the wild Ambystoma mexicanum resource is still scarce. Artificially cultivated Ambystoma mexicanum can be reasonably sold according to national policies and regulations, while for wild resources, it is necessary to select suitable microhabitats (such as places with suitable temperatures and rich vegetation) and establish natural reserves to strengthen the protection of wild resources and prevent possible risks that affect Ambystoma mexicanum [67,68].

4.2. The Value and Significance of the Risk Assessment Model System in the Introduction of Non-Native Species

The introduction of non-native species is usually aimed at promoting economic development, but many other factors should also be considered, such as food safety, policies and regulations, and introduction costs [69,70,71], as these factors are as important as economic development. An excellent and practical risk assessment model system should cover the discussion and exploration of the above factors. At the same time, as the basis for many international accounting standards policies and decisions related to biological invasion, the repeatability and reliability of risk assessments are crucial. Both repeatability and reliability of risk assessment systems are prerequisites for obtaining accurate and valuable results. The value of assessment results is a key factor in measuring whether the modeling system is meaningful. Assessment results can indicate the direction for the introduction of non-native species, provide practical suggestions for management of non-native species, and directly reflect the value of the evaluation results and, even more importantly, the significance of the existence of the risk assessment model system.
Our risk assessment model system is proposed on the basis of the previous risk assessment schemes and has several key advantages: (1) The model integrates two major directions: ecological risk of the species itself and risk of transmission of unknown diseases. It covers the biological characteristics of the species (and pathogens) while taking into account the economic benefits, policies and regulations, ecological environment, and other factors that directly affect the introduction of non-native species. (2) The model solves the problem of incommensurability among indices through quantitative scoring, transforming complex issues that cannot be described clearly into intuitive, digitally presented assessment results. (3) The lack of authentic and reliable evidence for non-native species is a key factor that reduces the accuracy of the assessment results. In our assessment system, there will be expert discussions of indices related to this part, and users can grade the indices on the basis of the experts’ discussions and suggestions, supported by solid theoretical bases, to ensure the accuracy of the scoring results. In addition, expert discussions can also serve as a basis for introduction strategies and management measures of non-native species. (4) Compared with other risk assessment systems of non-native species in the world, this system is more suitable for economic aquatic animals, and the indices involved in the model system can better reflect the problems that may be exposed during the actual introduction process. Therefore, when formulating introduction strategies and management measures, it will be more intuitive.
One limitation of our risk assessment model system is that the main assessment objects of this assessment system are non-native aquatic animals. Its core purpose is assessing the benefits regarding economic development (such as those for cultured fish and ornamental fish for aquatic plants), as well as assessing other aquatic animals introduced for various purposes (such as medical treatment, ecological environment improvement, and restoration), and the compatibility between this assessment system and these last three objectives is not high. Another constraint is that the assessment system focuses on pathogens that may be carried by introduced species for the risk assessment of infectious diseases, making the system unlikely to be suitable for assessing other potentially introduced pests (such as harmful plants and insects that may sneak in with the introduced species). These issues will be addressed in the further development of the model.

4.3. Application of Risk Assessment in Non-Native Species Management

Over the past several decades, there has been enormous growth in research interest regarding IS [72]. With the gradual deepening of research, scientists have also proposed some widely used model systems for the risk assessment of non-native species. For example, the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK), widely used in Europe, is adapted for freshwater fishes based on the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA). The FISK scoring system contains 49 question items that include species biogeography/history, as well as biological characteristics and ecological attributes that represent invasiveness. On the basis of the assessment and scoring results, non-native fish can be classified according to the potential risk [73]. At present, FISK is still continually updated and widely used [74].
Cynthia S. Kolar and David M. Lodge proposed a science-based simple risk assessment protocol named the “Fish Invasion Screening Test” (FIST); the invasiveness screening criteria of FIST include screening for potential biological features, such as growth, culture level, history of establishment, breeding in the wild, phenotypic plasticity, ability to live off a wide range of food types, competition with local species, diseases, dispersal ability (propagule pressure), and other characteristics attributable to invasiveness [69,75]. With the support of databases (such as DIAS and GISD), this risk assessment system can yield objective and correct assessment results.
On the basis of a risk analysis program for non-native species in aquaculture in Europe used to screen all animals and plants in aquatic ecosystems, the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) combines the recent EU regulations on the prevention and management of the introduction and spread of IS. This not only includes species types of fresh, brackish, and marine waters but also provides increasing comparability across aquatic species [76]. Using AS-ISK to evaluate non-native aquatic species (including both existing and potential future non-native species), the assessment system can make the process more flexible and improve the accuracy of the assessment results, as it incorporates analyses of policies and regulations and enables comparison among different aquatic species.
The Integrated Biosafety Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) is a model framework that can be used for evaluating the risks of imported products harboring IS. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple interrelated models that describe the entry of pests into the country, their escape along trade pathways, their initial dispersal into the environment, their habitat suitability, the probabilities of their establishment and spread, and the consequences of these intrusions. Compared with the previously discussed assessment system, the assessment object of IBRAM usually concerns imported products harboring IS, and the assessment focuses on the risk of these organisms establishing and dispersing within the region of assessment, which can better integrate with the actual situation of trade [77].

4.4. Relationship between Risk Assessment and Non-Native Species Management

The main reason for the migration or invasion of non-native species is that the intentional or unintentional actions of humans cause their own individuals or reproductive bodies to spread beyond the limits of the normal geographic regions to which they originally belonged [72]. We need to recognize that the impacts of the introduction of an non-native species on factors such as ecosystem function, species composition, and species richness cannot be dichotomized simply as beneficial or harmful; even if the introduced species are IS, their relationships with indigenous or abiotic environments will comprise positive and negative interactions [78]. Moreover, there are significant differences in the types, uses, and transmission routes of various non-native species, which leads to their complex relationships with ecological environments, social economies, policies, regulations, customs, and other factors [79]. Risk assessment should serve as a tool for the management of non-native species that integrates the above factors and can objectively evaluate the positive and negative effects of non-native species, providing decision-making recommendations and bases for the management of IS—providing scientific management solutions for IS that already exist in the region, predicting the invasion mechanisms and conditions of non-native species that may become IS, providing valuable introduction strategies for incoming non-native species [80], and concurrently judging and predicting the feasibility and effectiveness of various management schemes and control programs for established invasive populations [81]. Therefore, the relationship between risk assessment and non-native species management (with the emphasis on risk management) is interactive [82].
With the continual development of agricultural science and technology, increasingly advanced technologies are being applied to risk assessment and the management of non-native species, such as using unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites to detect non-native species [83] and establishing new marine protected areas [84]. At the same time, with the gradual and in-depth development of aquatic ecosystems, risk assessment, and non-native species management are also effectively compatible with other resource utilization projects, such as the development of electric fields, wind energy, and tidal energy.

5. Conclusions

The global trade of agricultural products has gradually entered an age of popularization and diversification, and biological invasion will be a major obstacle to the development of aquaculture, animal husbandry, and forestry. The prevention, control, and management of IAS is a difficult task for any country in the world. As the foundation of risk management for non-native species, risk assessment is also an important basis for policies and regulations for preventing and controlling IAS in many countries around the world; it plays an irreplaceable role in the field of controlling biological invasion. The risk assessment model system for the introduction of aquatic animals proposed in this study conducts, via quantitative analysis, a risk assessment on the introduction of aquatic animals, to formulate more scientific introduction strategies and more effective risk management measures by using the scoring results and overall assessment results of various indices. For IS that already exist in an area, specific control measures (capture, prevention, etc.) should be implemented for those species under the conditions permitted by policies and regulations. For non-native species that may become IS in an area, it is necessary to immediately communicate with the fishery department or other relevant units and carry out strict monitoring to control the population size. For new varieties that have never been introduced in the area, risk assessments should be conducted first to determine the potential risks and propose possible impacts, employing strict introduction strategies and risk management measures before introduction.

Supplementary Materials

The following supporting information can be downloaded at: https://www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/ani13122035/s1, Table S1: Discussion of tertiary indexes of Pterygoplichthys pardalis; Table S2: Discussion of tertiary indexes of Macrobrachium rosenbergii; Table S3: Discussion of tertiary indexes of Crassostrea gigas; Table S4: Discussion of tertiary indexes of Trachemys scripta elegans; Table S5: Discussion of tertiary indexes of Ambystoma mexicanum.

Author Contributions

Methodology, X.Z. and Y.S.; Software, X.Z.; Validation, X.Z., H.D., Y.W. and Z.C.; Formal analysis, X.Z.; Resources, Z.Z.; Data curation, H.D.; Writing—original draft, X.Z.; Writing—review & editing, H.D. and Y.S.; Supervision, Y.S.; Project administration, Y.Z. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research was supported financially by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2021YFC2600601) and the Nanhai Famous Youth Project.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

All data will be made available upon request from the corresponding author.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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