Crop Rotation Management in the Context of Sustainable Development of Agriculture in Ukraine

Abstract

This study investigates the implications of implementing simplified, highly specialized, non-rotational farming practices in Ukraine within the framework of sustainable development goals. The background highlights the need to address soil preservation and food security concerns in agricultural practices. The hypothesis suggests that such practices may lead to adverse environmental and socioeconomic consequences, including soil degradation and heightened reliance on imported agricultural products. The methods involve a comprehensive review of existing research, analyzing crop diversity, soil degradation, climate variability and agricultural employment dynamics using agroeconomic analytical methods. The results indicate adverse environmental ramifications associated with non-rotational practices, including soil degradation and heightened reliance on imported agricultural products. Conversely, transitioning towards crop rotation systems was found to potentially mitigate these outcomes by restoring soil fertility and enhancing food security. This study concludes that tailored crop rotation approaches are necessary to address soil health and food security concerns in Ukraine, thereby promoting sustainable agricultural development. Overall, the findings underscore the critical importance of implementing diversified crop rotation systems to achieve sustainable food production and environmental conservation goals in Ukraine and beyond.

1. Introduction

The FAO World Agriculture Outlook 2030 [1] emphasizes the critical need for a transition towards sustainable agricultural and rural development. This strategic shift aims to tackle key challenges including food security, rural poverty alleviation, and conservation of the natural environment. It underscores the importance of harmonizing economic, social, and environmental elements to foster holistic development in these sectors.

The concept of sustainable development emerged from a reassessment of the technogenic, noospheric, and associated adverse social processes that have intensified since the 1970s and now pose a threat to human livelihoods globally. This paradigm shift underscores the need to address the escalating environmental and social challenges that jeopardize long-term human survival and well-being. In the realm of agriculture, a primary concern is soil degradation, which now affects one third of the global agricultural land [2]. The predominant forms of this degradation are soil erosion and dehumidification. Annually, soil erosion across various continents leads to the loss of 25 to 40 billion metric tons (MT) of topsoil, which may require hundreds of years to regenerate. This erosion process not only diminishes the world’s humus reserves by approximately 1 billion MT each year but also intensifies further erosion and diminishes soil fertility. According to FAO estimates, the annual grain losses attributable to soil erosion total 7.6 million metric tons (MMT). Projections suggest that, if unchecked, these losses could exceed 250 MMT by 2050, potentially exacerbating issues of malnutrition and hunger amid an increasing global population.

Among the myriad factors contributing to the proliferation of soil degradation, researchers have pinpointed the prevalence of simplified non-rotational farming practices in agricultural operations. During the mid-twentieth century “green revolution”, not only in the originator countries but also in the developed world, traditional crop rotation was largely supplanted by the application of high doses of mineral fertilizers and chemicals for pest, disease, and weed control. This shift, coupled with biotechnological advances, led to increased agricultural yields [3,4]. Economic priorities fueled a trend towards specialization in the cultivation of a limited range of crops, which minimized waste and streamlined planting, harvesting, and irrigation processes [5,6].

However, several decades later, the detrimental effects of this agricultural approach became evident. The cost-saving measures such as the elimination of fallow periods, perennial grasses, and green manure crops adversely impacted the humus content and biological health of soils. The cultivation of a limited array of crops heightened the weed pressure on these crops and the prolonged use of herbicides to combat them led to increased weed resistance [7]. This resistance, in turn, necessitated progressively larger doses of herbicides. A similar escalation in resistance has also been observed with chemical agents used for controlling plant diseases and pests [8].

This narrow specialization has led to soil drought conditions that now affect approximately 1.3 billion hectares of agricultural land. This issue persists as the primary cause of the loss of nearly 25% of the world’s crop production [9].

Alterations in land use, favoring the cultivation of a restricted assortment of crops, have been identified as one of the top five drivers of biodiversity loss. This decline in biodiversity poses significant risks to healthy and nutritious diets, agricultural productivity and the living conditions in rural areas [10].

Scientists have documented that within the context of climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and more frequent dry periods, agricultural production in highly specialized systems faces greater risks compared to those utilizing crop rotation systems [11,12].

Both scientific inquiry and practical experience have led to the consensus that resolving the conflict between agricultural activities driven solely by profit and the fundamental principles of agriculture is imperative. This involves finding a balance between the short-term economic interests of individuals and the long-term agricultural productivity [13]. Among the various methods to achieve this equilibrium, crop rotation with crop diversification plays a crucial role. This strategy is recommended based on objectively determined reasons for the necessity of alternating crop types to sustain soil health and agricultural viability [7].

Scientifically informed crop rotation is recognized as a fundamental component in agriculture, crucial for developing and implementing an effective model that enhances soil fertility, facilitates the transformation of organic matter, and establishes a nutrient regime [9]. Additionally, crop diversification within crop rotation schemes is noted for increasing employment opportunities, creating 10–20% more jobs per hectare of sown area compared to traditional and simplified crop rotation methods [10]. Empirical studies have demonstrated that integrating specific crops less susceptible to climate variability into rotation schedules can substantially reduce agricultural production risks. This is achieved by mitigating pest outbreaks and curtailing the transmission of pathogens, which are projected to escalate with advancing climate change [11]. Moreover, crop diversification contributes to reducing the reliance on pesticides and enhancing biodiversity [14,15], which in turn supports ecological intensification, leading to improved crop quality [16].

This underscores the vital role that crop rotation farming plays in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, particularly in ensuring soil health, adapting crops to climate change, producing nutritious and high-quality food, and promoting rural employment.

In this context, the authors of this study have concluded that it is imperative to broaden the scope of scientifically established criteria that guide the selection and rotation in crop rotation systems. Furthermore, there is a need to assess the extent to which the practice of highly specialized agriculture with monoculture characteristics in Ukraine aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals. Additionally, it is crucial to devise strategies to address and rectify the problems identified through this analysis.

Objective Analysis of Crop Rotation Necessity. The necessity for crop rotation stems from various factors, primarily the inherent characteristics of the crops and the significance of their diversity for human health, as well as the agroclimatic and soil conditions in which they are cultivated. Key attributes of crop characteristics including chemical causes influencing soil health are closely tied to the varying nutrient requirements of different plants: some species demand a greater quantity of nutrients, while others require significantly fewer. Crops that are permanent and have high nutritional needs tend to deplete soil nutrients swiftly. Furthermore, the cultivation methods and types of crops grown also impact the physical properties of the soil cover, such as its structure and water permeability, which in turn affects the soil’s resistance to erosion by water and wind [17].

Biological reasons are associated with the varied interactions between cultivated plants and other plant and animal organisms. Different crops and their specific cultivation methods establish distinct environmental conditions that influence the development of weeds, pests, and pathogens. Additionally, during their lifecycle, previous crops may release substances that adversely affect subsequent crops or inhibit the development of microorganisms. This phenomenon, known as allelopathy, is a primary cause of soil pestilence, which consequently leads to a reduction in crop yield [18].

The economic reasons for implementing crop rotation derive from two main factors. Firstly, crop rotation enables the optimal organization of the cultivation of various crops tailored to meet the demands of both national and foreign markets, thereby facilitating the profitable sale of the products grown. Secondly, crop rotation contributes economically by generating a type of fertilizer that emerges naturally from the sequence of crops. This “crop rotation” fertilizer is considerably more cost-effective compared to the application of mineral fertilizers, offering a significant economic advantage by reducing input costs [19].

The diversity of crops included in a crop rotation is influenced by the variety required in the human diet to meet physiological needs [20]. Additionally, cultivating crops with varying growing seasons, distinct post-harvest processing characteristics for sale, and different usage periods on the farm enhances the productive employment of farmers. These factors collectively provide a social rationale for categorizing and considering social reasons alongside chemical, physical, biological, and economic factors. Together, these diverse reasons impact the selection and rotation of crops within a crop rotation system [21].

The farming system is not isolated; rather, it continually interacts with the environment. The arrangement of crops within crop rotations is significantly influenced by climatic factors, including average and long-term precipitation patterns, the distribution of rainfall over time, the accumulation of effective temperatures, air humidity, prevailing wind directions, the length of the growing season, the frost-free period, the presence and duration of soil freezing, the availability of productive moisture in the soil in spring, and the frequency of droughts, dry spells, frosts, and other adverse climatic conditions. These factors necessitate careful consideration in both the zonal placement of agricultural production and the development of localized crop rotation plans.

In Ukraine, three primary agroclimatic zones are differentiated based on the ratio of precipitation to accumulated heat: Polissya, Forest-Steppe, and Steppe. Polissya features low-lying terrain and a positive moisture balance, predominantly covered by sod-podzolic soils along with sandy and sandy loam soils. Meadow and sod soils also constitute a significant portion of this region. The Forest-Steppe zone exhibits diverse agroclimatic conditions and complex soil composition, primarily consisting of typical podzolized, degraded, and saline soils, which generally maintain a relatively high fertility level. Conversely, the Steppe zone is characterized by its flat terrain and fertile soils, predominantly black and soddy in the north-central areas, while the southern parts are dominated by southern chernozems and chestnut soils. Before the impact of climate change, the distribution of agricultural land was 19% in Polissya, 35% in Forest-Steppe, and 46% in the Steppe zone, as indicated in Figure 1 of this paper.

Climate change significantly influences the geographical shifts of climatic zones. According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, over the last 25 years, the average annual air temperature in Ukraine has risen by nearly 1.5 °C [13], surpassing the global warming rate observed in the northern hemisphere; in the Steppe regions, the increase reaches 1.6 °C. Historically, the highest effective heat accumulation (+10) reaching 1500 °C was recorded in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Kherson region; currently, this figure has escalated to 1600 °C across Ukraine [23]. In the southern regions, the average monthly precipitation has a steady downward trend. From 2015 to 2020, a consistent decline in average monthly precipitation has been noted, decreasing by 10% in Kirovohrad, 15% in Luhansk, 17% in Odesa, 20% in Mykolaiv, 23% in Dnipro and Kherson, 24% in Zaporizhzhia, and 25% in Donetsk regions [24].

Additionally, climate change is marked by uneven and increasingly stormy precipitation patterns, exacerbating soil compaction and erosion. The number and severity of drought events during the growing season have doubled over the past two decades. The ongoing climate shifts are expected to intensify these adverse effects, posing significant risks to the grain and sunflower production areas in the Steppe and Eastern Forest-Steppe regions, where average annual rainfall does not exceed 300–350 mm, and soil erosion rates range between 55 and 80%.

As a consequence of these changes, climatic zones have migrated northward by up to 200 km (Figure 2).

The Kirovohrad region, traditionally part of the Northern Steppe, is now experiencing conditions more characteristic of the Southern Steppe regions. Meanwhile, the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions are transitioning from the Southern Steppe to the Dry Steppe zone. This shift is marked by climatic changes, with the Dry Steppe zone nearing dry subtropical conditions in terms of temperature. The Northern Steppe is extending towards the Kyiv region and Polissya is increasingly resembling the Forest-Steppe.

Within the Steppe zone, temperatures are expected to reach +35 °C for up to 70 days annually and drought periods can extend up to 90 days per year. Under these conditions, rainfed agriculture becomes highly precarious and in the Dry Steppe zone, it verges on being nonviable.

Given these changes, along with the intrinsic need for crop rotation driven by the legal mandates of crop rotation and the social objectives of crop production, there is a compelling case for developing scientifically grounded crop rotations. These rotations are crucial for adapting farming systems to the evolving climatic conditions.

2. Materials and Methods

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the implications of implementing simplified, highly specialized, non-rotational farming practices in Ukraine. This assessment integrates a review of existing studies from research institutions and insights derived from the author’s own analysis.

The hypothesis posited in this scientific article suggests that the implementation of simplified, highly specialized, non-rotational soil management practices in Ukraine is characterized by observed negative indicators prompting this investigation. This may precipitate significant environmental and socio-economic ramifications amidst escalating climate variability. Specifically, it is proposed that these practices could lead to soil degradation, heightened reliance on imported agricultural goods, diminished food diversity, increased rural unemployment, and population migration. Conversely, transitioning towards crop rotation systems is postulated to potentially mitigate these negative outcomes by restoring soil fertility, enhancing food security, and fostering sustainable agricultural practices conducive to the preservation of natural resources and adaptation to climate change.

This research paper synthesizes conclusions from international scientists and FAO experts on the discord between simplified, highly specialized, non-rotational agriculture and the Sustainable Development Goals. It also incorporates studies addressing this issue in Ukraine, where such agricultural practices emerged during the shift to a market economy, reflecting a lack of balanced agricultural policies comparable to those in Western Europe.

This study employs a systematic approach to explore the intrinsic necessity of rotating crops temporally and spatially. This need arises from the inherent characteristics of the crops, their interplay with regional climatic conditions, and the societal objectives of their cultivation. The methodology integrates both traditional and contemporary agroeconomic analytical techniques.

Statistical analysis is a core component, involving the evaluation and interpretation of national and zonal data that includes (1) the existing crop repertoire and the structure of their plantings; (2) the extent of soil degradation through erosion, compaction, and thinning; (3) shifts in air temperature, precipitation patterns, and the frequency of vegetative droughts; (4) the impact of diseases and pests on crops within highly specialized farming frameworks; (5) the consumption levels of micro- and macronutrients by the population, and its employment dynamics within the transition to simplified high-tech grain and oilseed production; and (6) initiatives to foster sustainable soil improvement systems, achieve soil degradation neutrality, expand organic production, and ensure a nutritionally balanced diet for the population, as stipulated by Ukraine’s Sustainable Development Goals through 2030.

The application of comparative analysis facilitated the identification of an inverse relationship between crop yields and both the quality of arable land and the degree of production specialization, as well as a direct correlation with changes in climatic conditions. Utilizing an integrated approach that adheres to the principles of crop rotation necessitated by crop characteristics and their effects on plant development and soil health, this study addressed significant issues of land degradation and critical zonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Consequently, recommendations were formulated for modifying the crop assortment based on their humus-forming capabilities, moisture and nutrient requirements, and resilience to soil erosion, weeds, pests, and diseases. This led to advocating for extended-rotation crop rotations in Ukraine’s Forest-Steppe and Polissya regions and shorter, soil-conserving rotations in the Steppe zone.

This comprehensive approach to evaluating the role and functions of crop rotation in agriculture facilitated an assessment of its impact on sustainable agricultural development. This type of development is defined as one that not only preserves soil fertility and secures food for the present generation but also establishes equivalent conditions and opportunities for future generations.

The scientific novelty of this research paper lies in the expanded theoretical framework regarding the causal and objective rationale for implementing crop rotation in agricultural practices. It emphasizes the social imperatives for cultivating a diversity of crops, which, when combined with their chemical, physical, and biological properties, elucidates and defines the role and significance of crop rotation in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals. Furthermore, this study substantiates the essence of crop rotation as a strategic instrument for enhancing the resilience of agricultural production amid climatic fluctuations and for mediating the trade-off between short-term economic gains and long-term agricultural sustainability.

3. Results

The study of zonal aspects of crop rotation in Ukraine. With the shift towards a market economy, traditional crop rotation practices in Ukraine have gradually diminished, giving way to the emergence of intensive non-rotational systems. This trend has become particularly pronounced with the entry of large national and international agro-industrial and trading companies into the agricultural sector. For these corporations, as observed in other nations, the key factors driving the selection of crops are the heightened demand in foreign markets for certain products and the economic advantages associated with these demands.

Following the agrarian reforms of the 2000s, Ukrainian researchers have documented significant shifts in agricultural practices [9,25,26]. Driven predominantly by market demands, large agricultural enterprises have adopted specialized crop rotations focusing on one or two export-oriented crops. This shift has overlooked several critical factors: biological, physical, and chemical aspects of soil management; natural and environmental conditions pertinent to specific crop cultivation techniques; the agro-ecological classification of soil types according to their suitability for particular crops, which also considers the crops’ potential to enhance the resilience of agricultural landscapes; and the social implications associated with the composition of crop varieties. These observations highlight a trend towards a more commercially driven agricultural model that often disregards comprehensive environmental and social considerations.

Grains and oilseeds, particularly sunflower, have dominated the composition of Ukraine’s sown areas, accounting for 88.4% in 2021. The annual acreage dedicated to sunflower cultivation in Ukraine is almost two million hectares more than the combined total of all European Union countries. Predominantly, up to 80% of sunflower crops are situated in the Steppe Zone and the adjacent Eastern Forest-Steppe regions. These areas are designated as risky farming zones due to their climatic conditions and represent half of the cultivated land in Ukraine. Within these regions, sunflowers constitute 30–40% of the sown areas, while cereals account for the remaining 50–57%, as detailed in

Table 1. Formation of deeply specialized farming with signs of monoculture industrial-intensive agricultural production in Ukraine, % (zonal aspect).

Regions	Cereals		Technical and Oilseeds				Total Grains and Oilseeds
			Total		Including Sunflower
	1993	2021	1993	2021	1993	2021	1993	2021
Polissya Zone	39.1	51.7	7	22.8	0.15	10.7	46.1	74.5
Forest-Steppe Zone	44.7	56.2	12.7	31.3	3.5	20.3	57.4	87.5
Steppe Zone	48.5	57.5	11.6	36.6	10.7	30.2	60.1	94.1
Total in Ukraine	45.8	56.0	11.2	32.4	6.4	23.3	57	88.4

Source: Calculated by the authors based on the Statistical Digest “Agriculture of Ukraine” 1993, 2021.

.

Pairs that occupied more than a million hectares in these zones before the reform of the agricultural sector have been destroyed and perennial grasses have been reduced to 1.3% in the Steppe Zone.

The implementation of narrow specialization coupled with the abandonment of scientifically grounded crop rotation practices, which characterized Ukrainian agricultural enterprises prior to the transition to a market economy (i.e., until 1991–1992), failed to yield the anticipated increase in crop yields. This observation is evidenced by the performance of the most highly specialized regions within the Steppe zone, as illustrated in

Table 2. Yields of major crops in the regions of the Steppe zone, MT/ha.

Region	Cereals				Sunflower
	1990	2000	2010	2020	1990	2000	2010	2020
Ukraine	3.51	1.94	2.69	4.25	1.58	1.22	1.50	2.02
Dnipropetrovsky	3.91	2.03	2.53	3.23	1.59	1.31	1.04	1.63
Donetsky	3.78	1.85	2.48	3.47	1.93	1.78	1.38	1.72
Zaporozhsky	3.83	1.55	2.27	3.01	1.49	1.28	1.33	1.57
Kirovogradsky	3.91	1.99	2.89	3.14	1.70	1.28	1.71	1.69
Luhansky	3.09	1.18	1.96	3.45	1.55	1.04	1.05	1.68
Mykolayivsky	3.54	1.47	2.51	2.68	1.53	1.07	1.48	1.35
Odesky	2.98	1.80	2.55	1.85	1.40	1.17	1.44	1.27
Khersonsky	3.50	1.72	1.72	3.50	0.87	0.87	1.23	1.59

Source: Calculated by: “Agriculture of Ukraine”. Statistical collection, for the relevant years.

. Despite the adoption of new technologies, the introduction of imported Western European seeds, and the application of substantial doses of synthetic fertilizers, the anticipated yield improvements did not materialize.

The short-term economic benefits derived from increased grain and sunflower exports, pursued in contravention of scientifically established crop rotation principles, are overshadowed by long-term detriments due to the degradation of agroecosystems. Dehumidification, nutrient depletion, and soil over-compaction and erosion affect up to half of the arable land. Particularly in the highly specialized Steppe zone, between 55% and 80% of the land is vulnerable to erosion, as illustrated in

Table 3. The main factors of land degradation in highly specialized cropless areas of the Steppe zone, 2021.

Region	Grains and Oilseeds *, % in sown area	Humus Balance **, MT/ha	The Balance of the Lifespan **, kg/ha	Subject to Erosion ***,%
Ukraine	88.3	−0.13	−67	40.8
Dnipropetrovsky	93.3	−0.50	−51	43.8
Donetsky	92.1	-	-	66.3
Zaporozhsky	95.9	−0.61	−123	58.7
Kirovogradsky	94.2	−0.23	−30	50.4
Luhansky	95.9	−0.27	−72	83.9
Mykolayivsky	94.5	−0.39	−96	49.0
Odesky	96.1	−0.54	−69	48.0
Khersonsky	90.0	−0.54	−126	32.0

* Calculated by: “Agriculture of Ukraine”. Statistical collection, 2021. ** data from the State Institution “Institute of Soil Protection of Ukraine”. *** data from the State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography and Cadastre.

.

The exclusion of perennial grasses and legumes from crop rotations, coupled with the unbalanced extraction and replenishment of organic matter in the soil, leads to a significant humus deficit, amounting to 600–700 kg per hectare. Furthermore, the sole reliance on mineral nitrogen fertilizers contributes to soil degradation, characterized by decalcification and dehumification. Currently, degradation processes impact over 10 million hectares. Consequently, Ukrainian chernozems, which comprise 60% of the land structure, contain 2.5–3 times fewer nutrients compared to nonchernozem soils in European lands [27].

Soil degradation is exacerbated by the proliferation of pests and pathogens affecting plants and weeds. Findings from investigations carried out at the National Research Center “Institute of Agriculture of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine” reveal that diminishing field sizes from 4–5 to 2–3 hectares leads to a notable surge in the presence of pathogenic fungi within the soil, up to 60%. Additionally, an intensified frequency of cereal crop rotations featuring spiked cereals, by up to 75%, corresponds to a 38% escalation in root rot development and a 2.8% increase in the population of bread borers [8].

Noncompliance with crop rotation practices and the imbalance within agroecosystems precipitate the swift dissemination of viruses spanning various taxonomic groups. As delineated by A. Boyko [28], the agroecosystems of Ukraine currently harbor over 600 distinct viral entities, each adapted to specific plant species. Among these, approximately 25 are disseminated through microscopic fungi, over 30 are prevalent across diverse soil compositions, and roughly 90 phytoviruses are transmitted via seeds.

V. Kaminsky’s investigation revealed that cultivating sunflower within a simplified crop rotation, transitioning towards monoculture, precipitates a notable proliferation of tospovirus (TSV). Analogous to the sunflower mosaic pathogen (SM), TSV poses a substantial threat, potentially resulting in a grain yield reduction of up to 90% [9].

When crop rotations are disregarded, pest’s endemic to monoculture proliferate rapidly. For cereals, notable examples include bollworms, thrips, bread beetles, and wireworms, among others. A parallel scenario unfolds concerning weed populations. Under such circumstances, chemical interventions persist as the primary means of weed management [29]. However, escalated dosages of chemical plant protection agents engender environmental contamination, exacerbate soil water and nutrient imbalances and introduce substances detrimental to human health into agricultural produce.

The focalization of resources by large agricultural enterprises in Ukraine towards the cultivation of grain and sunflower has not yielded commensurate economic efficiency. Despite encompassing a considerable proportion of the cultivated area within the Steppe and Eastern Forest-Steppe zones, where sunflower occupies over a third of the sown area, the arable land exhibits a superior natural fertility rating compared to other zones. Paradoxically, however, the yield obtained from these regions falls below the national average [30]. Analogously, a comparable trend manifests concerning grain yields, as depicted in

Table 4. Assessment of natural soil fertility and yields of major crops, zonal aspect, 2021.

Regions and Zones	Natural Fertility Score of Arable Land	Yields, MT/ha
		Wheat	Barley	Corn	Sunflower
Total in Ukraine	63	4.53	3.82	7.68	2.46
Polissya
Volynsky	50	4.34	3.39	8.61	2.54
Zhytomyrsky	48	4.65	3.98	8.25	2.40
Zakarpattya	40	3.36	2.93	5.04	1.87
Ivano-Frankivsky	45	4.97	4.35	9.02	2.85
Lvivsky	43	4.93	4.77	9.06	2.52
Rivnensky	51	4.70	3.82	8.12	2,62
Chernihivsky	63	4.97	3.94	8.55	2.91
Forest-Steppe
Vinnytsky	61	5.57	4.61	9.37	3.20
Kyivsky	59	5.06	4.05	8.67	2.85
Poltavsky	66	4.83	3.64	6.79	2.57
Sumsky	58	4.75	3.91	6.77	2.94
Ternopilsky	57	5.54	4.48	9.87	3.34
Kharkivsky	67	4.80	3.69	5.14	2.44
Khmelnytsky	59	6.01	4.47	10.28	3.14
Cherkasky	65	5.39	4.17	8.95	3.15
Chernivetsky	47	5.01	3.66	7.47	2.84
Steppe
Crimea	54	-	-	-	-
Dnipropetrovsky	73	4.40	3.25	5.19	2.33
Donetsky	65	4.07	3.01	4.25	2.18
Zaporozhsky	74	3.84	3.52	7.54	2.00
Kirovogradsky	68	4.87	4.04	7.03	2.63
Luhansky	60	3.84	2.77	2.88	1.83
Mykolayivsky	68	4.23	3.77	5.23	2.24
Odesky	64	3.90	4.05	6.10	2.32
Khersonsky	73	4.12	3.88	9.03	1.93

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Statistical collection, 2021. URL: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.

.

The social consequences of export-oriented, highly specialized production in the absence of scientifically based crop rotations have manifested themselves in a decrease in rural employment [31]. Surveys conducted across agricultural holdings reveal that their subsidiaries and production units, which encompass up to 3000 hectares and have transitioned to cultivating grains and oilseeds—the most mechanized types of crops—can sustain employment for up to five individuals [32].

Intensified narrow specialization exacerbates the nation’s reliance on imported agricultural products that have been supplanted from national production. Consequently, between 2015 and 2021, import volumes surged by 2.9-fold for livestock products, nearly doubled for crop products and increased by 2.4 times for fats and oils. Concurrently, Ukraine’s populace experienced a growing deficit in per capita consumption of both micro- and macronutrients, alongside diminished caloric intake (

Table 5. Consumption of macro- and microelements per person per day.

Macro- and Microelements	Years
	1990	2010	2021
Caloric content, kcal	3597	2933	2677
Protein, g	105.3	79.0	82.3
Fats, g	124.0	99.2	95.2
Calcium, mg	1362	893	879
Iron, mg	25.0	20.5	19.4
Retinol, mcg	1863	1088	1051
Thiamine, mg	2.30	1.88	1.80
Riboflavin, mg	3.46	2.55	2.60
Niacin, mg	22.4	18.8	18.1

Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Statistical collection, 2021. URL: https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.

).

The evaluation of detrimental outcomes arising from the disregard of objective factors associated with crop rotation highlights the necessity to restructure cultivated regions by incorporating a diverse array of crops. Such diversification should aim to enhance soil organic matter (SOM) content; facilitate pest management; regulate nutrient equilibrium; ameliorate soil structure; mitigate erosion processes; and foster beneficial effects on food webs and field ecosystems [8].

An optimal approach for revising crop selections in rotations must consider climate change, now a global concern. It significantly increases uncertainties and threats in agriculture [33].

Under the influence of changing climatic conditions, it is essential to restructure cropping areas to halt degradation processes and establish a balance between short-term profitability and long-term productivity of agricultural land [34].

Possible ways of transitioning to socio-ecologically oriented crop rotations as a factor of sustainable land use. With ongoing climate change in the Steppe Zone, preserving cereal crop structure entails irrigating corn and barley, moisture-loving crops. In the new conditions, it will be advisable to replace some soft wheat with durum wheat to revive Ukraine’s role as a durum wheat exporter.

In regions prone to agricultural risks and characterized by extensive land degradation, it is advisable to substitute sunflower cultivation with drought- and salt-tolerant cereal crops. Sunflower, being a moisture-intensive crop with high water absorption and nutrient depletion from the soil, warrants replacement. Priority alternatives for such conditions include sorghum, valued for its dual utility as both a food source and industrial raw material, and millet, recognized for its efficacy as a precursor for winter wheat cultivation.

Incorporating oilseed legumes with nitrogen-fixing capabilities, such as soybeans, chickpeas, and peanuts, offers a dual advantage: ensuring adequate soil moisture reserves for consistent crop germination and revitalizing depleted land while providing crops with valuable nutritional attributes demanded globally. The inclusion of perennial legumes in the cultivated area is pivotal. Additionally, the implementation of post-harvest green manure crops presents a viable strategy for soil enrichment (see

Table 6. A set of crops for the Steppe zone, taking into account the level of degradation and climate change.

No.	Agricultural Crop	Structure of Crops, %
1	Winter wheat	22
2	Winter barley	20
3	Corn	10
4	Spring barley	5
5	Legumes and pulses	16
6	Cereal crops	16
7	Perennial grasses	11
Total		100

Source: Compiled by authors based on science-based standards and climate change.

).

The set of these crops with the longest period of return to the previous place of cultivation would allow farmers to switch to 4-plot short-rotation (

Table 7. Four-crop rotation scheme.

4-Crop Rotation Scheme
Field I includes winter cereals; Field II includes legumes; Field III includes spring cereals; Field IV includes perennial grasses for annual use.

Source: Compiled by authors.

).

The proposed structure of the sown areas allows for the placement of cereals after the recommended best predecessors, which corresponds to scientifically sound standards of crop selection and their rotation.

Such crop rotation practices are commonplace in regions endowed with suitable climatic conditions akin to those found in the Ukrainian steppes, as observed in Canada and the United States. These rotations typically involve the inclusion of perennial grasses and legumes in grain rotations, aimed at mitigating soil lodging and allelopathic effects while enhancing soil phytosanitary conditions. Notably, the United States boasts a significant proportion of global alfalfa acreage, with one in three hectares dedicated to this crop, alongside legumes occupying one in two cultivated hectares. Consequently, the country benefits from an annual influx of approximately 6 MMT of biological nitrogen, with half of this amount being sequestered in the soil, thereby exerting a favorable influence on crop yields and economic viability [9].

In the Western and Central Forest-Steppe regions, the restructuring of agricultural production does not necessitate extensive measures as observed elsewhere. The natural resources within this segment of the Forest-Steppe exhibit less depletion, owing to the region’s avoidance of narrow specialization and maintenance of polycultural agricultural practices. The proposed structural changes entail rejuvenating the fodder base and bolstering livestock production by partially reducing cultivated areas, particularly those devoted to sunflower and rapeseed cultivation. Concurrently, the expansion of leguminous crop cultivation, notably peas, is advocated. Peas are well-suited to the zone’s natural climatic and soil conditions, serving as optimal precursors for sugar beets and spiked cereals.

Based on the above analysis, the tentative set of crops for the Forest-Steppe zone can be structured as follows (

Table 8. Set of crops for the Forest-Steppe zone.

No.	Agricultural Crop	Structure of Crops, %
1	Winter wheat	16
2	Winter barley	10
3	Spring barley	5
4	Corn	16
5	Soybeans	16
6	Sunflower	10
7	Winter rapeseed, kohlseed	12
8	Annual grasses	5
9	Perennial grasses	10
Total		100

Source: Compiled by the authors based on science-based standards and climate change.

).

Sugar beet and sunflower are crops whose peculiarities determine the longest (7–9 years) period of their return to the previous place of cultivation, which determines the need to switch to long rotation of at least 8 crops (

Table 9. Eight-seed crop rotation.

Scheme of 8-Seed Crop Rotation
Field I includes annual grasses; Field II includes winter rape; Field III includes winter wheat, rye, and post-harvest crops; Field IV includes corn for grain and silage; Field V includes soybeans; Field VI includes winter barley and post-harvest crops; Field VII includes corn for grain; Field VIII includes sunflower.

Source: Compiled by authors.

).

In the context of climate change within the Polissya zone, the adoption of long-term crop rotation schemes should serve as the cornerstone for orchestrating structural reforms within commercial agricultural production. The delineation of crop rotations in the Polissya region will be instrumental in reinstating the cultivation of flax and hops, alongside the restoration of fodder lands. Despite its land area being three times smaller than other zones, Polissya previously accommodated 43% of the nation’s cattle, a figure that has since halved. However, the projected alterations in climatic conditions do not diminish the conducive environment for fostering the livestock sector’s development. Through the reinstatement of forage crop rotations and pastures, the region can emerge as a specialized hub for beef cattle rearing and a net exporter of beef products.

This approach, according to the authors, will allow Ukraine to come closer to the principles of crop rotation farming in European countries by 2030 and achieve a balanced, scientifically sound structure of sown areas. The proposed transformation is presented below in comparison with the current structure of sown areas in France, a country with high food production and at the same time effective environmentally oriented agriculture (

Table 10. Possible structure of crop areas in Ukraine focused on restoration of degraded lands and climate change.

Cultures	Ukraine 2020		Ukraine 2030 (Forecast)		France 2020
	Area KMT	%	Area KMT	%	Area KMT	%
The total sown area	2814.7	100	2450.0 *	100	1787.9	100
Cereals and legumes	1539.2	56	1225.0	50	890.72	50
Oilseeds	893.5	31.7	428.7	17.5	212.11	11.8
Including sunflower	645.7	22.9	245.0	10	77.84	4.3
Technical crops	28.9	1.0	73.5	3	62.48	3.5
Fodder crops	167.7	5.9	490.0	20	472.34	26
Including herbs	86.9	3.1	294.0	12	315.95	17.7
Other cultures	185.4	6.6	159.25	6.5	62.78	3.4
Land temporarily withdrawn from cultivation	-	-	735	3	523	2.9

* The area of sown land has been reduced by 4 million hectares, which are planned to be withdrawn from cultivation by 2030 in order to reduce plowed land. Source: Calculated by the authors according to the recommended zonal crop sets and crop rotation schemes and statistical compilations, Agreste Chiffres et Données Agriculture. Statistique agricole annuelle 2020 and Agriculture of Ukraine. Statistical collection for 2020.

).

Empirical evidence suggests that the shift from deeply entrenched monocultural practices towards scientifically grounded crop rotation agriculture necessitates robust state intervention, entailing the establishment of a conducive institutional and legal framework. Such a framework should encompass regulations, monitoring mechanisms, incentives, and encouragement strategies. A repertoire of such mechanisms is employed across European Union (EU) member states. These encompass stipulating the proportion of crops from the same biological family within crop rotations, periodic assessment of humus content, promotion of legumes and perennial grasses, and a hybrid approach integrating adherence to established regulations with direct payments under the Common Agricultural Policy.

In Ukraine, a comparable approach is lacking. For instance, the Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine titled “On Approval of Standards for Optimal Crop Rotation in Different Natural and Agricultural Regions” (2010) stands as an inactive regulatory provision, lacking requisite support from state regulatory and oversight mechanisms. This inert status is mirrored in the implementation of other state decrees addressing similar concerns.

The process of European integration within Ukraine necessitates concerted efforts from governmental bodies and the scientific community to enact legislative frameworks and implement practices aligned with the principles outlined in the European Green Deal. Mandates within the European Green Deal, including initiatives to preserve biodiversity, reduce chemical pesticide usage by 50%, decrease mineral fertilizer application by 20%, and transition 25% of arable land to organic farming, underscore the imperative of adopting agroecological crop rotation systems. These imperatives stem from the adverse environmental and social ramifications associated with non-rotational agriculture, which is poised to proliferate within the Ukrainian agricultural sector amid ongoing climate change. Furthermore, they align with the objectives outlined in Ukraine’s Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, particularly those concerning agricultural development (Goal 2) and the preservation and restoration of terrestrial ecosystems (Goal 15). Key performance indicators directly pertinent to crop rotation agriculture include setting targets to achieve a neutral level of land degradation, expanding organic production from 410.6 thousand hectares in 2015 to 3 million hectares by 2030 and ensuring a balanced diet among the populace by augmenting per capita production and consumption of fruits, berries, milk, and meat by specified margins [35].

Implementing a multi-rotation cropping system with varied crop structures and arrangements can ensure quality product production aligned with human needs. This approach supports food independence, rational labor resource use, land productivity, and environmental preservation [19].

4. Discussion

The research carried out by Ukrainian academic institutions and the authors of this study have substantiated the adverse environmental ramifications associated with simplified, highly specialized, non-rotational agricultural practices. These repercussions are notably characterized by the degradation of humus content, proliferation of phytotoxic soil regimes, soil structural deterioration, heightened soil fatigue, amplified erosion rates, and intensified weed, pest, and disease incidences, thereby necessitating escalated chemical interventions, consequently exacerbating risks to both human health and ecological integrity.

The adoption of simplified, highly specialized farming practices engenders an escalation in the nation’s reliance on imported agricultural products displaced from crop rotations, precipitating a reduction in the diversity of foodstuffs essential for human physiological requisites. Moreover, this agricultural paradigm shift precipitates a decline in rural employment opportunities, exacerbating poverty rates and fostering migration trends in pursuit of livelihoods, consequently intensifying strain on the labor market and catalyzing rural depopulation alongside attendant social dilemmas.

The findings of this research corroborate the hypothesis that implementing crop rotations that incorporate scientifically rational crop diversification serves as a potent mechanism for restoring soil fertility. This strategy emerges as a primary preventative approach, significantly mitigating the adverse effects of pests and diseases on plant growth. Moreover, it plays a crucial role in enhancing the living conditions of soil microflora, thus augmenting its biological activity and overall ecological health.

This conducted study suggests that modifications in crop assortment and their subsequent rotation necessitate adjustments within the agroclimatic zones of Ukraine. These adjustments are driven by an increase in average annual temperatures, a reduction in precipitation, and heightened evaporation of soil moisture. Consequently, these changes prompt a transformation in the structure of agricultural production, which is increasingly aligned with the demands of both national and international markets.

The approach proposed by the authors, involving a diversified assortment of crops tailored to the agroclimatic zones of Ukraine with corresponding rotation schemes, is identified as a strategic tool to enhance the resilience of agriculture in response to climate change. This approach not only addresses the short-term economic interests of individuals but also aims to maintain long-term agricultural productivity for the benefit of society at large.

The ongoing exploration and implementation of diversified crop rotation systems, considering their significance in fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals for Agriculture, continue to be critical tasks for both the academic fields of agrarian and economic sciences and the practical management of agricultural production. This pursuit remains essential in integrating scientific insights with effective agricultural practices to promote sustainable development.