Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Results
2.1. Field Analysis
2.2. Impact of Changing Climatic Parameters on Wheat Phenology
2.3. Data of GCM Simulations
2.4. DSSAT Model Description
2.5. Simulations and Analysis
2.6. DSSAT Model Performance
2.7. Climate Change Impacts
2.8. Resistant Wheat Varieties
2.9. A Longer Grain-Filling Variety
3. Discussion
4. Materials and Methods
5. Experimental Plot
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Years | Soil Type | Soil pH | Total Organic Carbon (%) | P-Content of Soil (mg/L) | Total Saturation Point (%) | Organic Matter Content (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019–2020 | Loamy | 7.56 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 0.45 |
2020–2021 | Loamy | 7.89 | 06 | 08 | 33 | 0.31 |
Climatic Parameters | ||||||
Years | Max. Temp (°C) | Min. Temp (°C) | Rainfall (mm) | Humidity (%) | Soil Moisture Content (%) | Solar Radiation (kWh/m2) |
2019–2020 | 33 | 21 | 0.6 mm | 33.5 | 25 | 5–7 kWh/m2 |
2020–2021 | 31 | 17 | 0.0 mm | 16.5 | 22 | 5–7 kWh/m2 |
Name of Variety Used | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sialkot–2008 | Punjab–2018 | ||||||||||||||
Sr.No | Area | Year | Flag Leave Formation | Sowing Days | Spikelet’s Formation | Maturity Days | Yield (t/ha) | Sr.No | Area | Year | Flag Leave Formation | Sowing Days | Spikelet’s Formation | Maturity Days | Yield (t/ha) |
1. | North Iftikharabad (Chamb), | 2019–2020 | 20 | 114 | 163 | 168 | 10.4 | 1. | North Iftikharabad (Chamb) | 2019–2020 | 21 | 118 | 167 | 176 | 11.5 |
2020–2021 | 21 | 116 | 165 | 170 | 9.9 | 2020–2021 | 22 | 119 | 169 | 173 | 11.4 | ||||
2. | Dander kot | 2019–2020 | 20 | 113 | 149 | 171 | 10.2 | 2. | Dander kot | 2019–2020 | 21 | 117 | 155 | 176 | 11.3 |
2020–2021 | 18 | 115 | 153 | 173 | 10.1 | 2020–2021 | 22 | 114 | 154 | 175 | 11.7 | ||||
3. | Sarla | 2019–2020 | 21 | 116 | 162 | 169 | 8.7 | 3. | Sarla | 2019–2020 | 23 | 116 | 164 | 180 | 9.7 |
2020–2021 | 17 | 119 | 165 | 174 | 8.3 | 2020–2021 | 20 | 121 | 168 | 176 | 9.3 | ||||
4. | Kalash | 2019–2020 | 20 | 118 | 169 | 170 | 7.7 | 4. | Kalash | 2019–2020 | 21 | 119 | 167 | 178 | 8.5 |
2020–2021 | 18 | 120 | 170 | 173 | 7.1 | 2020–2021 | 22 | 122 | 172 | 177 | 8.4 | ||||
5. | Manana | 2019–2020 | 21 | 115 | 165 | 172 | 6.8 | 5. | Manana | 2019–2020 | 16 | 115 | 160 | 165 | 5.8 |
2020–2021 | 19 | 118 | 168 | 175 | 6.4 | 2020–2021 | 21 | 122 | 169 | 181 | 7.5 | ||||
6. | Mean/stand.dev. | 2019–2021 | 1.4 ± 0.2 | 1.5 ± 0.3 | 1.5 ± 0.3 | 1.2 ± 0.1 | 1.1 ± 0.1 | 6. | Mean/stand.dev. | 2019–2021 | 1.7 ± 0.7 | 1.9 ± 0.6 | 1.3 ± 0.6 | 1.9 ± 0.8 | 1.3 ± 0.8 |
Parameters | Sialkot–2008 (V-1) | Punjab–2018 (V-2) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Per Day Difference Value | t-Test | p-Value | Per Day Difference Value | t-Test | p-Value | |
Flag leaves formation | 9 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 9 | 0.03 | 0.36 |
Sowing days | 12 | 0.01 | 0.76 | 12 | 0.05 | 0.96 |
Spikelet’s formation | 13 | 0.2 | 0.79 | 13 | 0.05 | 0.99 |
Maturity days | 15 | 0.02 | 0.65 | 15 | 0.03 | 0.76 |
Yield | 2 | 0.03 | 0.78 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.99 |
Months | October | November | December | January | February | March | April |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | |||||||
Temp (°C) | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Precipitation (mm/day) | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Humidity (%) | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
GISS-E2-R | |||||||
Temp (°C) | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Precipitation (mm/day) | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
Humidity (%) | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
MIROC5 | |||||||
Temp (°C) | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
Precipitation (mm/day) | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Humidity (%) | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
CCSM4 | |||||||
Temp (°C) | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
Precipitation (mm/day) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Humidity (%) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
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Ishtiaq, M.; Maqbool, M.; Muzamil, M.; Casini, R.; Alataway, A.; Dewidar, A.Z.; El-Sabrout, A.M.; Elansary, H.O. Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations. Plants 2022, 11, 1180. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11091180
Ishtiaq M, Maqbool M, Muzamil M, Casini R, Alataway A, Dewidar AZ, El-Sabrout AM, Elansary HO. Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations. Plants. 2022; 11(9):1180. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11091180
Chicago/Turabian StyleIshtiaq, Muhammad, Mehwish Maqbool, Mahnoor Muzamil, Ryan Casini, Abed Alataway, Ahmed Z. Dewidar, Ahmed M. El-Sabrout, and Hosam O. Elansary. 2022. "Impact of Climate Change on Phenology of Two Heat-Resistant Wheat Varieties and Future Adaptations" Plants 11, no. 9: 1180. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11091180