Climate

6 pages, 197 KiB

Open AccessPerspective

Urban Transformation: From Single-Point Solutions to Systems Innovation

by Eleanor Tonks and Sean Lockie

Climate 2020, 8(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010017 - 20 Jan 2020

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2784

Adapting our cities to the new climate regime is critical to ensure that human development is not jeopardized and that the world’s citizens can thrive where they live. Faced as we are with the imperative to act, we now need to accept that [...] Read more.

Adapting our cities to the new climate regime is critical to ensure that human development is not jeopardized and that the world’s citizens can thrive where they live. Faced as we are with the imperative to act, we now need to accept that the challenges we face are not technical in nature—they are systemic. Traditionally, investments in low-carbon city solutions have suffered from being small and disaggregated, with a focus on single-point solutions. To truly enable city transformation at scale, we need to completely rewire our approach to urban innovation and implementation. To face our new reality, EIT Climate-KIC works on catalysing systems change through innovation in areas of human activity that have a critical impact on greenhouse gas emissions—cities, land use, materials, and finance—and to create climate-resilient communities. In this paper, EIT Climate-KIC reflects on its key learnings, as an innovation community, on how to apply innovation in service of urban transformation through the application of nature-based solutions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate and Adaptation Tools)

14 pages, 2149 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Association between Air Temperature and Mortality in Two Brazilian Health Regions

by Wolmir Ercides Péres, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo and Baltazar Nunes

Climate 2020, 8(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010016 - 19 Jan 2020

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3909 | Correction

Abstract

Air temperature, both cold and hot, has impacts on mortality and morbidities, which are exacerbated by poor health service and protection responses, particularly in under-developed countries. This study was designed to analyze the effects of air temperature on the risk of deaths for [...] Read more.

Air temperature, both cold and hot, has impacts on mortality and morbidities, which are exacerbated by poor health service and protection responses, particularly in under-developed countries. This study was designed to analyze the effects of air temperature on the risk of deaths for all and specific causes in two regions of Brazil (Florianopolis and Recife), between 2005 and 2014. The association between temperature and mortality was performed through the fitting of a quasi-Poisson non-linear lag distributed model. The association between air temperature and mortality was identified for both regions. The results showed that temperature exerted influence on both general mortality indicators and specific causes, with hot and cold temperatures bringing different impacts to the studied regions. Cerebrovascular and cardiovascular deaths were more sensitive to cold temperatures for Florianopolis and Recife, respectively. Based on the application of the very-well documented state-of-the-art methodology, it was possible to conclude that there was evidence that extreme air temperature influenced general and specific deaths. These results highlighted the importance of consolidating evidence and research in tropical countries such as Brazil as a way of understanding climate change and its impacts on health indicators. Full article

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24 pages, 9229 KiB

Open AccessArticle

What Do Global Climate Models Tell Us about Future Arctic Sea Ice Coverage Changes?

by Ge Peng, Jessica L. Matthews, Muyin Wang, Russell Vose and Liqiang Sun

Climate 2020, 8(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010015 - 17 Jan 2020

Cited by 26 | Viewed by 19190

Abstract

The prospect of an ice-free Arctic in our near future due to the rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice decline has brought about the urgent need for reliable projections of the first ice-free Arctic summer year (FIASY). Together with up-to-date observations and characterizations [...] Read more.

The prospect of an ice-free Arctic in our near future due to the rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice decline has brought about the urgent need for reliable projections of the first ice-free Arctic summer year (FIASY). Together with up-to-date observations and characterizations of Arctic ice state, they are essential to business strategic planning, climate adaptation, and risk mitigation. In this study, the monthly Arctic sea ice extents from 12 global climate models are utilized to obtain projected FIASYs and their dependency on different emission scenarios, as well as to examine the nature of the ice retreat projections. The average value of model-projected FIASYs is 2054/2042, with a spread of 74/42 years for the medium/high emission scenarios, respectively. The earliest FIASY is projected to occur in year 2023, which may not be realistic, for both scenarios. The sensitivity of individual climate models to scenarios in projecting FIASYs is very model-dependent. The nature of model-projected Arctic sea ice coverage changes is shown to be primarily linear. FIASY values predicted by six commonly used statistical models that were curve-fitted with the first 30 years of climate projections (2006–2035), on other hand, show a preferred range of 2030–2040, with a distinct peak at 2034 for both scenarios, which is more comparable with those from previous studies. Full article

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7 pages, 300 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Acknowledgement to Reviewers of Climate in 2019

by Climate Editorial Office

Climate 2020, 8(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010014 - 16 Jan 2020

Viewed by 2407

Abstract

The editorial team greatly appreciates the reviewers who have dedicated their considerable time and expertise to the journal’s rigorous editorial process over the past 12 months, regardless of whether the papers are finally published or not [...] Full article

18 pages, 8806 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Implications of Winter NAO Flavors on Present and Future European Climate

by Efi Rousi, Henning W. Rust, Uwe Ulbrich and Christina Anagnostopoulou

Climate 2020, 8(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010013 - 14 Jan 2020

Cited by 31 | Viewed by 7403

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basic variability mode in the Northern Hemisphere, undergoes changes in its temporal and spatial characteristics, with significant implications on European climate. In this paper, different NAO flavors are distinguished for winter in simulations of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean [...] Read more.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a basic variability mode in the Northern Hemisphere, undergoes changes in its temporal and spatial characteristics, with significant implications on European climate. In this paper, different NAO flavors are distinguished for winter in simulations of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM, using Self-Organizing Maps, a topology preserving clustering algorithm. These flavors refer to various sub-forms of the NAO pattern, reflecting the range of positions occupied by its action centers, the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. After having defined the NAO flavors, composites of winter temperature and precipitation over Europe are created for each one of them. The results reveal significant differences between NAO flavors in terms of their effects on the European climate. Generally, the eastwardly shifted NAO patterns induce a stronger than average influence on European temperatures. In contrast, the effects of NAO flavors on European precipitation anomalies are less coherent, with various areas responding differently. These results confirm that not only the temporal, but also the spatial variability of NAO is important in regulating European climate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics and Climate Change)

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15 pages, 2286 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Effects of Historical Housing Policies on Resident Exposure to Intra-Urban Heat: A Study of 108 US Urban Areas

by Jeremy S. Hoffman, Vivek Shandas and Nicholas Pendleton

Climate 2020, 8(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010012 - 13 Jan 2020

Cited by 461 | Viewed by 174409

Abstract

The increasing intensity, duration, and frequency of heat waves due to human-caused climate change puts historically underserved populations in a heightened state of precarity, as studies observe that vulnerable communities—especially those within urban areas in the United States—are disproportionately exposed to extreme heat. [...] Read more.

The increasing intensity, duration, and frequency of heat waves due to human-caused climate change puts historically underserved populations in a heightened state of precarity, as studies observe that vulnerable communities—especially those within urban areas in the United States—are disproportionately exposed to extreme heat. Lacking, however, are insights into fundamental questions about the role of historical housing policies in cauterizing current exposure to climate inequities like intra-urban heat. Here, we explore the relationship between “redlining”, or the historical practice of refusing home loans or insurance to whole neighborhoods based on a racially motivated perception of safety for investment, with present-day summertime intra-urban land surface temperature anomalies. Through a spatial analysis of 108 urban areas in the United States, we ask two questions: (1) how do historically redlined neighborhoods relate to current patterns of intra-urban heat? and (2) do these patterns vary by US Census Bureau region? Our results reveal that 94% of studied areas display consistent city-scale patterns of elevated land surface temperatures in formerly redlined areas relative to their non-redlined neighbors by as much as 7 °C. Regionally, Southeast and Western cities display the greatest differences while Midwest cities display the least. Nationally, land surface temperatures in redlined areas are approximately 2.6 °C warmer than in non-redlined areas. While these trends are partly attributable to the relative preponderance of impervious land cover to tree canopy in these areas, which we also examine, other factors may also be driving these differences. This study reveals that historical housing policies may, in fact, be directly responsible for disproportionate exposure to current heat events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Survivability under Overheating - The Impact of Regional and Global Climate Change on Vulnerable and Low Income Population)

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15 pages, 3211 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Managing New Risks of and Opportunities for the Agricultural Development of West-African Floodplains: Hydroclimatic Conditions and Implications for Rice Production

by Aymar Yaovi Bossa, Jean Hounkpè, Yacouba Yira, Georges Serpantié, Bruno Lidon, Jean Louis Fusillier, Luc Olivier Sintondji, Jérôme Ebagnerin Tondoh and Bernd Diekkrüger

Climate 2020, 8(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010011 - 10 Jan 2020

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3956

Abstract

High rainfall events and flash flooding are becoming more frequent, leading to severe damage to crop production and water infrastructure in Burkina Faso, Western Africa. Special attention must therefore be given to the design of water control structures to ensure their flexibility and [...] Read more.

High rainfall events and flash flooding are becoming more frequent, leading to severe damage to crop production and water infrastructure in Burkina Faso, Western Africa. Special attention must therefore be given to the design of water control structures to ensure their flexibility and sustainability in discharging floods, while avoiding overdrainage during dry spells. This study assesses the hydroclimatic risks and implications of floodplain climate-smart rice production in southwestern Burkina Faso in order to make informed decisions regarding floodplain development. Statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and frequency analysis) combined with rainfall-–runoff modeling (HBV model) were used to analyze the hydroclimatic conditions of the study area. Moreover, the spatial and temporal water availability for crop growth was assessed for an innovative and participatory water management technique. From 1970 to 2013, an increasing delay in the onset of the rainy season (with a decreasing pre-humid season duration) occurred, causing difficulties in predicting the onset due to the high temporal variability of rainfall in the studied region. As a result, a warming trend was observed for the past 40 years, raising questions about its negative impact on very intensive rice cultivation packages. Farmers have both positive and negative consensual perceptions of climatic hazards. The analysis of the hydrological condition of the basin through the successfully calibrated and validated hydrological HBV model indicated no significant increase in water discharge. The sowing of rice from the 10th to 30th June has been identified as optimal in order to benefit from higher surface water flows, which can be used to irrigate and meet crop water requirements during the critical flowering and grain filling phases of rice growth. Furthermore, the installation of cofferdams to increase water levels would be potentially beneficial, subject to them not hindering channel drainage during peak flow. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation)

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15 pages, 1093 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Measuring the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in the Dry Zone of Myanmar: A Ricardian Approach

by Aung Tun Oo, Guido Van Huylenbroeck and Stijn Speelman

Climate 2020, 8(1), 9; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010009 - 9 Jan 2020

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 8049

Abstract

Myanmar is the country with the highest economic vulnerability (EV) to climate change in the Southeast Asian region. The dry zone of Myanmar occupies two-thirds of the agricultural lands and it has higher temperatures than elsewhere in the country. Climate change has severe [...] Read more.

Myanmar is the country with the highest economic vulnerability (EV) to climate change in the Southeast Asian region. The dry zone of Myanmar occupies two-thirds of the agricultural lands and it has higher temperatures than elsewhere in the country. Climate change has severe impacts on agricultural production in this region. Moreover, changes in the precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of crop failures in the short-run and production declines in the long run. Therefore, an assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on crop production in the dry zone of Myanmar is very relevant. This paper examines the interactions between agriculture and climate and assesses the economic impact of climate change while using a Ricardian model. A cross-sectional survey covering three regions in the central dry zone: (Magwe, Mandalay, and Sagaing regions) was conducted, yielding a sample of 425 farmers. A non-linear relationship between climate indicators (temperature and precipitation) and revenue of land was found. The marginal effects were calculated by selecting economic and socio-demographic variables. The estimated marginal impacts suggest that the projected changes in temperature will affect the crop productivity of the region. The results also show that the temperature and rainfall components of global warming are both important. Predictions from three global circulation models all confirm that temperature is predicted to increase in all seasons. A significant marginal impact of increasing temperature on the net revenue of farm households was observed in the region. These findings call for policy makers and development planners to articulate the necessary climate change adaptation measures and mitigation options for reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Improved management and conservation of the available water resources could generate water for irrigation purposes and the dissemination of climate smart agricultural practices could lessen the negative impacts of climate change effects on agriculture in the dry zone of Myanmar. Full article

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19 pages, 977 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperReview

Integrating Agriculture and Ecosystems to Find Suitable Adaptations to Climate Change

by Anastasia W. Thayer, Aurora Vargas, Adrian A. Castellanos, Charles W. Lafon, Bruce A. McCarl, Daniel L. Roelke, Kirk O. Winemiller and Thomas E. Lacher

Climate 2020, 8(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010010 - 9 Jan 2020

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 6788

Abstract

Climate change is altering agricultural production and ecosystems around the world. Future projections indicate that additional change is expected in the coming decades, forcing individuals and communities to respond and adapt. Current research efforts typically examine climate change effects and possible adaptations but [...] Read more.

Climate change is altering agricultural production and ecosystems around the world. Future projections indicate that additional change is expected in the coming decades, forcing individuals and communities to respond and adapt. Current research efforts typically examine climate change effects and possible adaptations but fail to integrate agriculture and ecosystems. This failure to jointly consider these systems and associated externalities may underestimate climate change impacts or cause adaptation implementation surprises, such as causing adaptation status of some groups or ecosystems to be worsened. This work describes and motivates reasons why ecosystems and agriculture adaptation require an integrated analytical approach. Synthesis of current literature and examples from Texas are used to explain concepts and current challenges. Texas is chosen because of its high agricultural output that is produced in close interrelationship with the surrounding semi-arid ecosystem. We conclude that future effect and adaptation analyses would be wise to jointly consider ecosystems and agriculture. Existing paradigms and useful methodology can be transplanted from the sustainable agriculture and ecosystem service literature to explore alternatives for climate adaptation and incentivization of private agriculturalists and consumers. Researchers are encouraged to adopt integrated modeling as a means to avoid implementation challenges and surprises when formulating and implementing adaptation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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17 pages, 19540 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Thermal Mitigation of the Indoor and Outdoor Climate by Green Curtains in Japanese Condominiums

by Hiroto Abe, Hom B. Rijal, Ryoga Hiroki, Kentaro Iijima and Akira Ohta

Climate 2020, 8(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010008 - 7 Jan 2020

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 5385

Abstract

In recent years, “green curtains” have become one of the most prevalent thermal mitigation methods in Japan. They can be considered as green infrastructure for achieving thermal comfort and reducing energy use. To examine the thermal mitigation effect of the green curtain for [...] Read more.

In recent years, “green curtains” have become one of the most prevalent thermal mitigation methods in Japan. They can be considered as green infrastructure for achieving thermal comfort and reducing energy use. To examine the thermal mitigation effect of the green curtain for practical applicability in the condominium, the indoor and balcony temperatures for 48 days both in households with and without green curtains were analyzed. The balcony globe temperature of the households with green curtains was 0.6 °C lower than that of the households without green curtains, during air-conditioner usage. Furthermore, the air-conditioner usage time of the households with green curtains was 40% less than that of the households without green curtains. The results showed that green curtains are effective for achieving both thermal mitigation and energy saving in a condominium. Full article

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15 pages, 239 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Adaptation Options for Coastal Communities and Local Governments

by Laura Sinay and R. W. (Bill) Carter

Climate 2020, 8(1), 7; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010007 - 7 Jan 2020

Cited by 41 | Viewed by 19360

Abstract

Extreme weather events and failure to adapt to the likely impacts of climate change are two of the most significant threats to humanity. Therefore, many local communities are preparing adaptation plans. Even so, much of what was done has not been published in [...] Read more.

Extreme weather events and failure to adapt to the likely impacts of climate change are two of the most significant threats to humanity. Therefore, many local communities are preparing adaptation plans. Even so, much of what was done has not been published in the peer-reviewed literature. This means that consideration of adaptation options for local communities is limited. With the objective of assisting in the development of adaptation plans, we present 80 adaptation options suitable for coastal communities that can be applied by local governments. They are a catena of options from defend to co-exist and finally, retreat that progresses as impacts become less manageable. Options are organized according to their capacity to protect local properties and infrastructure, natural systems, food production, availability of fresh and drinking water and well-being of the local population, as these are likely to be affected by climate change. To respond to multiple threats, ‘soft’ options, such as awareness raising, planning, political articulation and financial incentives, insurance and professional skills enhancement, can be encouraged immediately at relatively low cost and are reversible. For specific threats, options emphasize change in management practices as pre-emptive measures. Key audiences for this work are communities and local governments starting to consider priority actions to respond to climate change impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

13 pages, 10707 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A New Method to Assess Fine-Scale Outdoor Thermal Comfort for Urban Agglomerations

by Dirk Lauwaet, Bino Maiheu, Koen De Ridder, Wesley Boënne, Hans Hooyberghs, Matthias Demuzere and Marie-Leen Verdonck

Climate 2020, 8(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010006 - 6 Jan 2020

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4274

Abstract

In urban areas, high air temperatures and heat stress levels greatly affect human thermal comfort and public health, with climate change further increasing the mortality risks. This study presents a high resolution (100 m) modelling method, including detailed offline radiation calculations, that is [...] Read more.

In urban areas, high air temperatures and heat stress levels greatly affect human thermal comfort and public health, with climate change further increasing the mortality risks. This study presents a high resolution (100 m) modelling method, including detailed offline radiation calculations, that is able to efficiently calculate outdoor heat stress for entire urban agglomerations for a time period spanning several months. A dedicated measurement campaign was set up to evaluate model performance, yielding satisfactory results. As an example, the modelling tool was used to assess the effectiveness of green areas and water surfaces to cool air temperatures and wet bulb globe temperatures during a typical hot day in the city of Ghent (Belgium), since the use of vegetation and water bodies are shown to be promising in mitigating the adverse effects of urban heat islands and improving thermal comfort. The results show that air temperature reduction is most profound over water surfaces during the afternoon, while open rural areas are coolest during the night. Radiation shading from trees, and to a lesser extent, from buildings, is found to be most effective in reducing wet bulb globe temperatures and improving thermal comfort during the warmest moments of the day. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate and Adaptation Tools)

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18 pages, 2649 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Weather-Pattern-Based Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP5 Models over Mexico

by Yanet Díaz-Esteban, Graciela B. Raga and Oscar Onoe Díaz Rodríguez

Climate 2020, 8(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010005 - 5 Jan 2020

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3572

Abstract

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP5) is frequently used to force regional climate models for dynamic downscaling and projections, which decision makers in turn use for future plans in different sectors. It is, therefore, highly important to assess their [...] Read more.

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP5) is frequently used to force regional climate models for dynamic downscaling and projections, which decision makers in turn use for future plans in different sectors. It is, therefore, highly important to assess their performance in order to use them as reliable tools. A weather-type approach for the evaluation of the performance of CMIP5 models is employed in this study, with the objective of providing insight into model errors under a set of distinct synoptic conditions and circulation types associated with the rainy season over Mexico and Central America. The Self-Organizing Maps algorithm is used to identify the main weather regimes (constructed from sea level pressure, specific humidity, and low-level winds at a daily time-scale), which are then evaluated against reanalysis. The results show that model performance depends on the weather type in all of the variables except for sea level pressure, which confirms the usefulness of this approach. The models simulate better the humidity patterns that show weak deviations from the climatological norm. In addition, the wind pattern representing the Caribbean Low Level Jet is well reproduced by all the models. The results show the capacity of this methodology for determining the extent to which climate models represent the main circulation patterns that characterize the climate and local weather in Mexico. Full article

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25 pages, 7926 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Staying Cool in A Warming Climate: Temperature, Electricity and Air Conditioning in Saudi Arabia

by Nicholas Howarth, Natalia Odnoletkova, Thamir Alshehri, Abdullah Almadani, Alessandro Lanza and Tadeusz Patzek

Climate 2020, 8(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010004 - 3 Jan 2020

Cited by 36 | Viewed by 18294

Abstract

As global temperatures warm and populations and incomes rise, the demand for cooling will soar, creating a positive feedback loop between global warming and electricity-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This study explores the relationship between temperature, electricity, air conditioning (AC) and [...] Read more.

As global temperatures warm and populations and incomes rise, the demand for cooling will soar, creating a positive feedback loop between global warming and electricity-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This study explores the relationship between temperature, electricity, air conditioning (AC) and CO₂ emissions, and the sustainability of cooling in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. With the highest share of AC in household electricity consumption in the world and its already very hot summers warming by 3 °C in many areas over the last 40 years, Saudi Arabia provides an important case study of how the cooling challenge can be managed. Data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ERA5) is used to illustrate local warming trends (1979–2018) and show the relationship between temperature and power generation within a typical year using hourly data (2011–2015). Using annual data (2010–2018), we then show that since 2016 the rapid growth in the Kingdom’s electricity demand for AC and its associated CO₂ emissions have plateaued. This suggests energy efficiency measures, higher electricity prices and a shift from the use of oil towards gas in the power sector are having a positive effect on energy sustainability. We identify key policies and technologies that will be important for the sustainable use of cooling in Saudi Arabia and beyond. Full article

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26 pages, 780 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Perception of Environmental Spillovers Across Scale in Climate Change Adaptation Planning: The Case of Small-Scale Farmers’ Irrigation Strategies, Kenya

by Volenzo Tom Elijah and John O. Odiyo

Climate 2020, 8(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010003 - 26 Dec 2019

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5167

Abstract

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy, and programming spaces exacerbate the risk of ecological degradation, and more so, the degradation of land. The use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase [...] Read more.

The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy, and programming spaces exacerbate the risk of ecological degradation, and more so, the degradation of land. The use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, few if any policy assessments and research efforts have been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study, the cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy, and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. A cross-sectional survey design and multistage stratified sampling were used to collect data from 69 households. To elicit the environmental impacts of irrigation practices, topsoil and subsoils from irrigated and non-irrigated sites were sampled and analysed using AAS (atomic absorption spectrophotometer). A generalised linear logistic weight estimation procedure was used to analyse the perception of risks while an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to analyse changes in exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The findings from small-scale farmers in Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, a cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy. and information support, as well as the poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such human–environment system interactions have the potential to exacerbate the existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience, and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have a significant effect on behaviour concerning the mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritise the proactive mitigation of slow-onset disaster risks, and broadens decision support systems such as risk information dissemination integration, into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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18 pages, 1016 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Economic and Ecological Impacts of Increased Drought Frequency in the Edwards Aquifer

by Jinxiu Ding and Bruce A. McCarl

Climate 2020, 8(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010002 - 20 Dec 2019

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4078

Abstract

This paper examines how increased drought frequency impacts water management in arid region, namely the Edwards Aquifer (EA) region of Texas. Specifically, we examine effects on the municipal, industrial, and agricultural water use; land allocation; endangered species supporting springflows and welfare. We find [...] Read more.

This paper examines how increased drought frequency impacts water management in arid region, namely the Edwards Aquifer (EA) region of Texas. Specifically, we examine effects on the municipal, industrial, and agricultural water use; land allocation; endangered species supporting springflows and welfare. We find that increases in drought frequency causes agriculture to reduce irrigation moving land into grassland for livestock with a net income loss. This also increases water transfer from irrigation uses to municipal and industrial uses. Additionally, we find that regional springflows and well elevation will decline under more frequent drought condition, which implicates the importance of pumping limits and/or minimum springflow limits. Such developments have ecological implications and the springflows support endangered species and a switch from irrigated land use to grasslands would affect the regional ecological mix. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change in Complex Systems: Effects, Adaptations, and Policy Considerations for Agriculture and Ecosystems)

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17 pages, 3326 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Hydrological Modeling Response to Climate Model Spatial Analysis of a South Eastern Europe International Basin

by Charalampos Skoulikaris, Christina Anagnostopoulou and Georgia Lazoglou

Climate 2020, 8(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8010001 - 19 Dec 2019

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4369

Abstract

One of the most common questions in hydrological modeling addresses the issue of input data resolution. Is the spatial analysis of the meteorological/climatological data adequate to ensure the description of simulated phenomena, e.g., the discharges in rainfall–runoff models at the river basin scale, [...] Read more.

One of the most common questions in hydrological modeling addresses the issue of input data resolution. Is the spatial analysis of the meteorological/climatological data adequate to ensure the description of simulated phenomena, e.g., the discharges in rainfall–runoff models at the river basin scale, to a sufficient degree? The aim of the proposed research was to answer this specific question by investigating the response of a spatially distributed hydrological model to climatic inputs of various spatial resolution. In particular, ERA-Interim gridded precipitation and temperature datasets of low, medium, and high resolution, i.e., 0.50° × 0.50°, 0.25° × 0.25°, and 0.125° × 0.125°, respectively, were used to feed a distributed hydrological model that was applied to a transboundary river basin in the Balkan Peninsula, while all the other model’s parameters were maintained the same at each simulation run. The outputs demonstrate that, for the extent of the specific basin study, the simulated discharges were adequately correlated with the observed ones, with the marginally best results presented in the case of precipitation and temperature of 0.25° × 0.25° spatial analysis. The results of the research indicate that the selection of ERA-Interim data can indeed improve or facilitate the researcher’s outputs when dealing with regional hydrologic simulations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate-Change on Water Resources)

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