Astronomy

Cosmological scenarios wherein the cumulative number of spontaneously formed, cognitively impaired, disembodied transient observers is vastly larger than the corresponding number of atypical `ordinary observers’ (OOs) formed in the conventional way—essentially via cosmic evolution and gravitational instability—are disqualified in modern cosmology on the grounds of Cognitive Instability—the untrustworsiness of one own’s reasoning—let alone the atypicality of OOs like us. According to the concordance $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model—when described in the (expanding) `cosmic frame’—the cosmological expansion is future-eternal. In this frame we are atypical OOs, which are vastly outnumbered by typical Boltzmann Brains (BBs) that spontaneously form via sheer thermal fluctuations in the future-eternal asymptotic de Sitter spacetime. In the case that dark energy (DE) ultimately decays, the cumulative number of transient `Freak Observers’ (FOs) formed and destroyed spontaneously by virtue of the quantum uncertainty principle ultimately overwhelms that of OOs. Either possibility is unacceptable. We argue that these unsettling conclusions are artifacts of employing the (default) cosmic frame description in which space expands. When analyzed in the comoving frame, OOs overwhelmingly outnumber both BBs and FOs. This suggests that the dual comoving description is the cognitively stable preferred framework for describing our evolving Universe. In this frame, space is globally static, masses monotonically increase, and the space describing gravitationally bounded objects monotonically contracts.

Solar flares are among the most powerful and dynamic events in the solar system, resulting from the sudden release of magnetic energy stored in the Sun’s atmosphere. These energetic bursts of electromagnetic radiation can release up to ${10}^{32}$ erg of energy, impacting space weather and posing risks to technological infrastructure and therefore require accurate forecasting of solar flare occurrences and intensities. This study evaluates the predictive performance of three machine learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—for classifying solar flares into four categories (B, C, M, X). Using 13 parameters of the SHARP dataset, the effectiveness of the models was evaluated in binary and multiclass classification tasks. The analysis utilized 8 principal components (PCs), capturing 95% of data variance, and 100 PCs, capturing 97.5% of variance. Our approach uniquely combines binary and multiclass classification with different levels of dimensionality reduction, an innovative methodology not previously explored in the context of solar flare prediction. Employing a 10-fold stratified cross-validation and grid search for hyperparameter tuning ensured robust model evaluation. Our findings indicate that RF and XGBoost consistently demonstrate strong performance across all metrics, benefiting significantly from increased dimensionality. The insights of this study enhance future research by optimizing dimensionality reduction techniques and informing model selection for astrophysical tasks. By integrating this newly acquired knowledge into future research, more accurate space weather forecasting systems can be developed, along with a deeper understanding of solar physics.

This work aims to maximize the Hawking emission temperature arising in the optical analog model of the event horizon of an astrophysical black hole. A weak probe wave interacts with an intense ultrashort optical pulse via the Kerr effect in a photonic crystal fiber. This interaction causes the probe wave to experience an effective spacetime geometry characterized by the presence of an optical event horizon, where the analogous Hawking radiation effect arises. Here we refer to the simulated or classical version of the analog of Hawking radiation. This study considers four distinct types of photonic crystal fibers with anomalous dispersion curves that allow for maximizing the effect. Our first three numerical simulations indicate that a Hawking emission temperature of up to 361 K can be achieved with a photonic crystal fiber with two zero-dispersion wavelengths, while the emission temperature values in the original investigation are lower than 244 K. And in the fourth, we can see that we have a configuration in which the temperature can be improved up to 1027 K. Moreover, these results also emphasize the feasibility of using analog models to test the quantum effects of gravity, such as Hawking radiation produced by typical black holes, whose magnitude is far below the temperature of the cosmic microwave background (2.7 K).