Climate

19 pages, 2687 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Assessment of the Carbon Budget of the Passively Restored Willow Forests Along the Miho River, Central South Korea

by Bong-Soon Lim, Seung-Jin Joo, Ji-Eun Seok and Chang-Seok Lee

Climate 2024, 12(11), 182; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110182 - 8 Nov 2024

Climate change is rapidly progressing as the carbon budget balance is broken due to excessive energy and land use. This study was conducted to find and quantify new carbon sinks to implement the carbon neutrality policy prepared by the international community to solve [...] Read more.

Climate change is rapidly progressing as the carbon budget balance is broken due to excessive energy and land use. This study was conducted to find and quantify new carbon sinks to implement the carbon neutrality policy prepared by the international community to solve these problems. To reach this goal, an allometric equation of the willow community, which dominates riparian vegetation, was developed and applied to calculate the net primary productivity of the willow community. Furthermore, after the amount of carbon emitted via soil respiration was quantified, the net ecosystem production was calculated by subtracting the amount of soil respiration from the net primary production. In comparisons of the results obtained via this process with those obtained from forest vegetation, the willow community, representative of riparian vegetation, showed a much higher carbon sequestration rate than forest vegetation. Considering these results comprehensively, the willow community could be a new and significant carbon absorption source. In this context, proper river restoration should be realized to contribute to carbon neutrality and secure various ecosystem service functions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change—Achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals in Urban Contexts)

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28 pages, 10629 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Marine Heatwaves on Isotherm Displacement and Tuna Distribution in Vanuatu

by Hannah Weinberg, Jessica Bhardwaj, Andrew B. Watkins and Yuriy Kuleshov

Climate 2024, 12(11), 181; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110181 - 8 Nov 2024

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have intensified in frequency, duration, and severity over recent decades. These events, defined by unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), can cause significant ecological impacts. This is particularly so for Pacific Island countries, such as Vanuatu, where communities rely on [...] Read more.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have intensified in frequency, duration, and severity over recent decades. These events, defined by unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), can cause significant ecological impacts. This is particularly so for Pacific Island countries, such as Vanuatu, where communities rely on marine resources for their food and livelihoods. A common ecological response to MHWs is the movement of oceanic species to cooler waters. Predicting such shifts through monitoring SST isotherms can help identify thermal boundaries that marine species favor. This study explores the connection between MHWs, SST isotherm movement, and tuna abundance in Vanuatu. The displacement of the 28 °C isotherm was analyzed across three major MHW events (2008–2009, 2016, and 2021–2022). It was found that MHWs with longer duration and greater intensity caused more significant isotherm displacement. Additionally, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation had an important influence on MHW formation and isotherm movement. The effects of these displacements on tuna distribution varied between events. The ability to monitor MHWs and SST isotherm movement could be an effective instrument for the prediction of areas of suppressed or abundant tuna activity and can be used to aid in the proactive management of food security and fishery sectors. Full article

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19 pages, 1075 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Climate Change on Migration Patterns in Coastal Communities

by Umar Daraz, Štefan Bojnec and Younas Khan

Climate 2024, 12(11), 180; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110180 - 7 Nov 2024

Abstract

Climate change is a major global challenge affecting migration patterns, particularly in coastal communities vulnerable to sea-level rise, flooding, and extreme weather. Pakistan, with its extensive coastline and diverse environmental conditions, faces significant climate-induced migration issues, especially in Karachi, Thatta, Gwadar, Badin, and [...] Read more.

Climate change is a major global challenge affecting migration patterns, particularly in coastal communities vulnerable to sea-level rise, flooding, and extreme weather. Pakistan, with its extensive coastline and diverse environmental conditions, faces significant climate-induced migration issues, especially in Karachi, Thatta, Gwadar, Badin, and Muzaffargarh. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on migration patterns in these five selected regions of Pakistan. By analyzing climate variables and socio-economic factors, the research seeks to provide a localized understanding of how climate change drives population movements. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to gather data from 350 participants across these regions. Stratified random sampling ensured representation from each area, and data were collected using a structured questionnaire administered online. Statistical analyses included multiple linear regression, logistic regression, and structural equation modeling (SEM). This study found a strong positive relationship between climate change variables (sea level rise, temperature increases, and flooding) and migration patterns. Both direct impacts of climate change and indirect socio-economic factors influenced the likelihood of migration. The SEM analysis revealed that climate awareness partially mediates the relationship between climate change and migration. In conclusion, climate change significantly drives migration in Pakistan’s coastal communities, with both direct environmental impacts and socio-economic conditions playing crucial roles. Enhanced climate awareness and comprehensive adaptation strategies are essential. Policies should focus on climate resilience through infrastructure improvements, early warning systems, and socio-economic support programs. Strengthening education and economic opportunities is vital to build community resilience and effectively manage climate-induced migration. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards under Climate Change)

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25 pages, 3719 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Implications for Nature-Based Solutions

by Cor A. Schipper, Titus W. Hielkema and Alexander Ziemba

Climate 2024, 12(11), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110179 - 7 Nov 2024

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications, and potential future risks based on estimated energy matrixes and policy pathways. The aim of this publication is to assess the risks climate change poses to biodiversity [...] Read more.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications, and potential future risks based on estimated energy matrixes and policy pathways. The aim of this publication is to assess the risks climate change poses to biodiversity using projected IPCC climate scenarios for the period 2081–2100, combined with key species-sensitivity indicators and variables as a response to climate change projections. In doing so, we address how climate-change-driven pressures may affect biodiversity. Additionally, a novel causal relationship between extreme ambient temperature exposure levels and the corresponding effects on individual species, noted in this paper as the Upper Thermal-Tolerance Limit and Species Sensitivity Distribution (UTTL-SSD), provides a compelling explanation of how global warming affects biodiversity. Our study indicates that North American and Oceanian sites with humid continental and subtropical climates, respectively, are poised to realize temperature shifts that have been identified as potential key tipping-point triggers. Heat stress may significantly affect approximately 60–90% of mammals, 50% of birds, and 50% of amphibians in North American and Oceanian sites for durations ranging from 5 to 84 days per year from 2080. In the humid temperate oceanic climate of European sites, the climate conditions remain relatively stable; however, moderate cumulative effects on biodiversity have been identified, and additional biodiversity-assemblage threat profiles exist to represent these. Both the integration of IPCC-IUCN profiles and the UTTL-SSD response relationship for the species communities considered have resulted in the identification of the projected threats that climate pressures may impose under the considered IPCC scenarios, which would result in biodiversity degradation. The UTTL-SSD responses developed can be used to highlight potential breakdowns among trophic levels in food web structures, highlighting an additional critical element when addressing biodiversity and ecosystem concerns. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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28 pages, 45519 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Novel Input Schematization Method for Coastal Flooding Early Warning Systems Incorporating Climate Change Impacts

by Andreas G. Papadimitriou, Anastasios S. Metallinos, Michalis K. Chondros and Vasiliki K. Tsoukala

Climate 2024, 12(11), 178; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110178 - 5 Nov 2024

Abstract

Coastal flooding poses a significant threat to coastal communities, adversely affecting both safety and economic stability. This threat is exacerbated by factors such as sea level rise, rapid urbanization, and inadequate coastal infrastructure, as noted in recent climate change reports. Early warning systems [...] Read more.

Coastal flooding poses a significant threat to coastal communities, adversely affecting both safety and economic stability. This threat is exacerbated by factors such as sea level rise, rapid urbanization, and inadequate coastal infrastructure, as noted in recent climate change reports. Early warning systems (EWSs) have proven to be effective tools in coastal planning and management, offering a high cost-to-benefit ratio. Recent advancements have integrated operational numerical models with machine learning techniques to develop near-real-time EWSs, leveraging data obtained from reputable databases that provide reliable hourly sea-state and sea level data. Despite these advancements, a stepwise methodology for selecting representative events, akin to wave input reduction methods used in morphological modeling, remains undeveloped. Moreover, existing methodologies often overlook the significance of compound extreme events and their potential increased occurrence under climate change projections. This research addresses these gaps by introducing a novel input schematization method that combines efficient hydrodynamic modeling with clustering algorithms. The proposed methodοlogy, implemented in the coastal area of Pyrgos, Greece, aims to select an optimal number of representative sea-state and water level combinations to develop accurate EWSs for coastal flooding risk prediction. A key innovation of this methodology is the incorporation of weights in the clustering algorithm to ensure adequate representation of extreme compound events, also taking into account projections for future climate scenarios. This approach aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability of coastal flooding EWSs, ultimately improving the resilience of coastal communities against imminent flooding threats. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards under Climate Change)

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18 pages, 3137 KiB

Open AccessReview

Sustainable Strategies to Current Conditions and Climate Change at U.S. Military Bases and Other Nations in the Arctic Region: A 20-Year Comparative Review

by Vinayak Kaushal and Amey Kashyap

Climate 2024, 12(11), 177; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110177 - 4 Nov 2024

Abstract

Amidst the backdrop of growing great power competition, heightened United States presence via military bases has manifested in the Arctic. However, the then design and implementation have hampered the resilience of these bases in a region warming at nearly four times the rate [...] Read more.

Amidst the backdrop of growing great power competition, heightened United States presence via military bases has manifested in the Arctic. However, the then design and implementation have hampered the resilience of these bases in a region warming at nearly four times the rate of the rest of the globe. Two-thirds of the United States’ 79 military bases in the Arctic remain underprepared against permafrost thaw and rising sea levels despite rampant calls for sustainable strategies. Damages emanating from climate-related failures will continue to cost the U.S. billions of dollars and render crucial infrastructure unusable. The objective of this study is to present a comprehensive literature review of the extent of Arctic warming and its significance for U.S. bases, the negative implications of military infrastructure deterioration, and methods to adapt both existing and forthcoming bases to a rapidly warming atmosphere. Eighty published papers that directly or indirectly referenced U.S. military bases or climate-oriented engineering in the aforementioned contexts were identified and analyzed over a 20-year period from 2004 to 2024. The literature review concludes that warming concerns were often not taken into much account by civil engineers during initial base construction, an oversight that now jeopardizes runways, docks, and highways. Other nations that have a sizeable footprint in the Arctic Circle, such as Canada and Russia, have demonstrated progress by utilizing pile-driven substructures, thawing permafrost before construction, and ventilated crawlspaces. Alternative solutions, such as cooling permafrost via thermosiphons or refrigeration systems, employing spatially oriented foundations composed of specific materials, and preventative measures such as floodwalls and revetments, have also shown considerable promise in simulations and practice. A table illustrating a holistic literature summary of sustainable strategies to current conditions and climate change at U.S. Military Bases in the Arctic region is also developed. Modeling successful engineering concepts and incorporating existing innovations into military infrastructure should be at the forefront of the United States’ sustainable policy. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate, Climate Change and the Arctic: Environment, Infrastructure, Health and Well-Being)

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15 pages, 436 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Effects of Greenhouse Gases and Particulate Emissions on Quality of Life: A Country-Level Empirical Study

by Dongli Zhang, Wullianallur Raghupathi and Viju Raghupathi

Climate 2024, 12(11), 176; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110176 - 2 Nov 2024

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate emissions and quality of life. The aim is to understand how emissions affect quality of life globally—across countries, regions, and the global population. Statistical methods were used to examine the impact of [...] Read more.

This study explores the relationship between greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particulate emissions and quality of life. The aim is to understand how emissions affect quality of life globally—across countries, regions, and the global population. Statistical methods were used to examine the impact of various emissions’ indicators on different aspects of quality of life. The study highlights the urgent need for climate change action and encourages policymakers to take strategic steps. Climate change adversely affects numerous aspects of daily life, leading to significant consequences that must be addressed through policy changes and global governance recommendations. Key findings include that higher CO₂ and methane emissions and air pollution negatively impact quality of life. CO₂ emissions are positively associated with electricity while air pollution is positively associated with GDP and negatively with unemployment. Air pollution has an adverse effect on all three aspects of the children’s welfare dimension of quality of life. These results provide timely and convincing insights for policy- and decision-making aimed at mitigating the impact of emissions on quality of life. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Confronting the Climate Change and Health Nexus: Interactions, Impacts, and Adaptation Strategies)

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15 pages, 4552 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Associations of Climatic Variables with Health Problems in Dairy Sheep Farms in Greece

by Eleni I. Katsarou, Daphne T. Lianou, Charalambia K. Michael, Natalia G. C. Vasileiou, Elias Papadopoulos, Efthymia Petinaki and George C. Fthenakis

Climate 2024, 12(11), 175; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110175 - 1 Nov 2024

Abstract

This study aimed to study the potential effects of climatic conditions prevalent at the locations of sheep farms in the country. The specific objectives were to explore associations between climatic variables and the incidence of four clinical problems in sheep farms and, moreover, [...] Read more.

This study aimed to study the potential effects of climatic conditions prevalent at the locations of sheep farms in the country. The specific objectives were to explore associations between climatic variables and the incidence of four clinical problems in sheep farms and, moreover, to compare these to the health management practices applied in the farms. Our hypothesis was that climatic factors may be associated with the prevalence of diseases in sheep farms; this will provide information regarding potential weather effects, to take into account in the efforts for control of the diseases. Data were obtained during a large cross-sectional investigation performed across Greece involving 325 sheep flocks. Climatic variables prevailing at the location of each farm were derived from ‘The POWER Project’. The annual incidence rate for abortion was 2.0% (95% confidence intervals: 1.9–2.1%), for clinical mastitis 3.9% (3.8–4.0%), for lamb pneumonia 1.4% (1.3–1.4%) and for lamb diarrhoea 7.9% (7.8–8.1%). In multivariable analyses, climatic variables emerged as significant predictors for abortion—high annual precipitation at the farm location (p = 0.024)—and for lamb diarrhoea—high average annual temperature range at the farm location (p < 0.0001)—but not for clinical mastitis or lamb pneumonia. The potential effects of climatic variables were found to be more important in lambs than in adult animals. Future studies may focus on how variations in temperature and precipitation can be translated into on-farm metrics to understand the impacts on sheep health and welfare. Full article

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20 pages, 2205 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Educational Strategies for Teaching Climate and Bioclimate in Response to Global Change

by Ana Cano-Ortiz, Carmelo Maria Musarella and Eusebio Cano

Climate 2024, 12(11), 174; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110174 - 31 Oct 2024

Abstract

This work establishes the relationship between climate, bioclimate, and forest ecosystems and highlights the need to teach these topics in educational institutions. It was found that such knowledge is not currently taught in universities, leading to scarce or non-existent teacher training in these [...] Read more.

This work establishes the relationship between climate, bioclimate, and forest ecosystems and highlights the need to teach these topics in educational institutions. It was found that such knowledge is not currently taught in universities, leading to scarce or non-existent teacher training in these areas. However, the teaching of bioclimatic aspects over a three-year period as a basis for land use planning, has shown highly positive results. The objective is to propose the teaching of bioclimatology to future managers and teachers in order to obtain a balanced environmental development. The analysis of bioclimatic diagrams makes it possible to stipulate the duration of the water reserve in the soil. This is essential for agricultural and forestry management. The edaphic factor and the bioclimatic ombrotclimatic (Io) and thermoclimatic (It/Itc) indexes condition the types of forests and crops that can exist in a territory, with the particularity that the ombrotype is conditioned by the edaphic factor, which allows a decrease in the ombrothermal index, expressed by the ombroedaphoboxerophilic index (Ioex). The humid ombrotypes condition the presence of Abies pinsapo, Quercus pyrenaica, Q. broteroi, and Q. suber, and the dry ones Q. rotundifolia and Olea sylvestris. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change)

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21 pages, 10021 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sikkim: A Comparison of AHP and Fuzzy AHP Models

by Arindam Das, Suraj Kumar Singh, Shruti Kanga, Bhartendu Sajan, Gowhar Meraj and Pankaj Kumar

Climate 2024, 12(11), 173; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110173 - 30 Oct 2024

Abstract

The Sikkim region of the Eastern Himalayas is highly susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), a risk that has increased significantly due to rapid glacial retreat driven by climate change in recent years. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of GLOF susceptibility [...] Read more.

The Sikkim region of the Eastern Himalayas is highly susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), a risk that has increased significantly due to rapid glacial retreat driven by climate change in recent years. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of GLOF susceptibility in Sikkim, employing Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) models. Key factors influencing GLOF vulnerability, including lake volume, seismic activity, precipitation, slope, and proximity to rivers, were quantified to develop AHP and FAHP based susceptibility maps. These maps were validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, with the AHP method achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.92 and the FAHP method scoring 0.88, indicating high predictive accuracy for both models. A comparison of the two approaches revealed distinct characteristics, with FAHP providing more granular insights into moderate-risk zones, while AHP offered stronger predictive capability for high-risk areas. Our results indicated that the expansion of glacial lakes, particularly over the past three decades, has heightened the potential for GLOFs, highlighting the urgent need for continuous monitoring and adaptive risk mitigation strategies in the region. This study, in addition to enhancing our understanding of GLOF risks in Sikkim, also provides a robust framework for assessing and managing these risks in other glacial regions worldwide. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coping with Flooding and Drought)

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23 pages, 24978 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Drought Characteristics and Drought-Induced Effects on Vegetation in Sri Lanka

by Deepakrishna Somasundaram, Jianfeng Zhu, Yuan Zhang, Yueping Nie, Zongke Zhang and Lijun Yu

Climate 2024, 12(11), 172; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110172 - 29 Oct 2024

Abstract

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought and its impacts on vegetation is a timely prerequisite to ensuring agricultural, environmental, and socioeconomic sustainability in Sri Lanka. We investigated the drought characteristics (duration, severity, frequency, and intensity) from 1990 to 2020 by using the Standardized [...] Read more.

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought and its impacts on vegetation is a timely prerequisite to ensuring agricultural, environmental, and socioeconomic sustainability in Sri Lanka. We investigated the drought characteristics (duration, severity, frequency, and intensity) from 1990 to 2020 by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at various timescales and the cumulative and lagged effects on vegetation between 2000 and 2020 across the climatic zones of Sri Lanka (Dry, Wet, and Intermediate). SPEI indexes at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month scales were used to analyze the drought characteristics. Frequent droughts (~13%) were common in all zones, with a concentration in the Dry zone during the last decade. Drought occurrences mostly ranged from moderate to severe in all zones, with extreme events more common in the Dry zone. This research used SPEI and the Standardized Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (SNDVI) at 0 to 24-month scales to analyze the cumulative and lagged effects of drought on vegetation. Cumulated drought effects and vegetation had maximum correlation coefficient values concentrated in the −0.41–0.98 range in Sri Lanka. Cumulated drought effects affected 40% of Dry and 16% of Intermediate zone vegetation within 1–4 months. The maximum correlation between the lagged drought effect and vegetation SNDVI showed coefficient values from −0.31–0.94 across all zones, and the high correlation areas were primarily distributed in Dry and Intermediate zones. Over 60% of the Dry and Intermediate zones had a lagged drought impact within 0 to 1 month, while 52% of the Wet zone experienced it over 11 months. The resulting dominant shorter timescale responses indicate a higher sensitivity of vegetation to drought in Sri Lanka. The findings of this study provide important insights into possible spatiotemporal changes of droughts and their possible impact on vegetation across climate zones. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coping with Flooding and Drought)

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14 pages, 4414 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Carbon Stocks in Two Aquatic Marshes on the Caribbean and Pacific Coast of Panama

by Andrés Fraiz-Toma, Paola Gastezzi-Arias, Brillit Della Sera, Antonio Clemente, Mileika González, Alex Espinosa, Benjamín Braghtley, Edgar Arauz and Karen Domínguez

Climate 2024, 12(11), 171; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110171 - 25 Oct 2024

Abstract

Wetlands are critical ecosystems globally, boasting significant ecological and economic value. They play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle by storing water and carbon, thereby helping to mitigate climate variability. But in Panama, little is known about the carbon stored in freshwater [...] Read more.

Wetlands are critical ecosystems globally, boasting significant ecological and economic value. They play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle by storing water and carbon, thereby helping to mitigate climate variability. But in Panama, little is known about the carbon stored in freshwater wetlands. This research presents the estimation of the carbon stocks of two freshwater wetlands in Panama, located on both sides of the Caribbean (Portobelo) and Pacific (Tonosi) coasts. The methodology consisted of transects of 125 m and 40 m wide, with six circular plots every 25 m; in each transect, the diameter of the tree trunk was measured at breast height (1.3 m) and the species was recorded, and in the same plots, soil samples were collected in triplicate by depth intervals. The average total ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) for the aquatic wetlands of Tonosí was 106.26 ± 18.3 Mg C ha⁻¹, and for Portobelo, it was 355.09 ± 70.02 Mg C ha⁻¹. These recorded values can contribute to the conservation of wetlands, supporting Panama’s nationally determined NDC contributions. However, despite the acceptance that wetlands are important nature-based solutions, national data on soil carbon stocks in freshwater wetlands are still scarce and their protection should be increased. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change and Human Impact on Freshwater Water Resources: Rivers and Lakes)

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19 pages, 1819 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Fairness for Accepting Stricter Carbon Taxes in Sweden

by Daniel Lindvall, Patrik Sörqvist, Sverker Carlsson Jagers, Mikael Karlsson, Stefan Sjöberg and Stephan Barthel

Climate 2024, 12(11), 170; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110170 - 24 Oct 2024

Abstract

Carbon taxes are considered to be an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; however, such taxes are generally unpopular, partly because they are seen as unfair. To explore if public acceptance of a stricter carbon tax in Sweden can be enhanced, this [...] Read more.

Carbon taxes are considered to be an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; however, such taxes are generally unpopular, partly because they are seen as unfair. To explore if public acceptance of a stricter carbon tax in Sweden can be enhanced, this study investigates the effectiveness of three different policy designs, addressing collective and personal distributional consequences and promoting procedural aspects (democratic influence). A large-scale (n = 5200) survey is applied, combining a traditional multi-category answer format with a binary choice format. The results show that support for higher carbon taxation can be enhanced if tax revenues are redistributed to affected groups. Policies with collective justice framings can change the attitudes of individuals who express antagonistic attitudes to increased carbon taxation and influence groups comparably more affected by carbon taxes, such as rural residents, low-income groups, and people who are driving long distances. Policy designs addressing collective distributional consequences are, however, less effective on individuals expressing right-leaning ideological views and low environmental concern. Policies addressing personal distributional outcomes, or perceptions of procedural injustice, had no significant effect on policy acceptance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)

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22 pages, 2141 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Climate Model Projections for Precipitation and Temperature in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

by Fekadie Bazie Enyew, Dejene Sahlu, Gashaw Bimrew Tarekegn, Sarkawt Hama and Sisay E. Debele

Climate 2024, 12(11), 169; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110169 - 22 Oct 2024

Abstract

The projection and identification of historical and future changes in climatic systems is crucial. This study aims to assess the performance of CMIP6 climate models and projections of precipitation and temperature variables over the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Northwestern Ethiopia. The bias [...] Read more.

The projection and identification of historical and future changes in climatic systems is crucial. This study aims to assess the performance of CMIP6 climate models and projections of precipitation and temperature variables over the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Northwestern Ethiopia. The bias in the CMIP6 model data was adjusted using data from meteorological stations. Additionally, this study uses daily CMIP6 precipitation and temperature data under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the near (2015–2044), mid (2045–2074), and far (2075–2100) periods. Power transformation and distribution mapping bias correction techniques were used to adjust biases in precipitation and temperature data from seven CMIP6 models. To validate the model data against observed data, statistical evaluation techniques were employed. Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator were also performed to identify trends and magnitudes of variations in rainfall and temperature, respectively. The performance evaluation revealed that the INM-CM5-0 and INM-CM4-8 models performed best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. The precipitation projections in all agro-climatic zones under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios show a significant (p < 0.01) positive trend. The mean annual maximum temperature over UBNB is estimated to increase by 1.8 °C, 2.1 °C, and 2.8 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 between 2015 and 2100, respectively. Similarly, the mean annually minimum temperature is estimated to increase by 1.5 °C, 2.1 °C, and 3.1 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. These significant changes in climate variables are anticipated to alter the incidence and severity of extremes. Hence, communities should adopt various adaptation practices to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Environment)

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9 pages, 620 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Threat Severity and Threat Susceptibility Are Significantly Correlated with Climate Distress in Australian Mothers

by Jennifer L. Barkin, James Dimmock, Lacee Heenan, James Clancy, Heather Carr and Madelyn K. Pardon

Climate 2024, 12(11), 168; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110168 - 22 Oct 2024

Abstract

Climate change presents a critical global crisis, characterized by rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting climate patterns. Vulnerable populations bear a disproportionate share of these impacts, with women at heightened risk due to unequal access to resources, decision-making power, and social roles. [...] Read more.

Climate change presents a critical global crisis, characterized by rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting climate patterns. Vulnerable populations bear a disproportionate share of these impacts, with women at heightened risk due to unequal access to resources, decision-making power, and social roles. Postpartum women specifically face further unique challenges as they strive to protect their children, amplifying the psychological toll of climate change. The current study explores climate distress in a sample of 101 postpartum women in Australia (M_age = 31.14 years), whose youngest child was (on average) 5 months of age, examining factors associated with their psychological responses to climate threats. Correlational analyses reveal that perceptions of threat severity (r = 0.621, p ≤ 0.01) and susceptibility (r = 0.695, p ≤ 0.01) are strongly linked to climate distress. These findings highlight the need to further investigate the distinct psychological pathways climate-related anxiety operates through in postpartum women. The study underscores the importance of targeted interventions to support this vulnerable population as they face increasing climate-related stressors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Confronting the Climate Change and Health Nexus: Interactions, Impacts, and Adaptation Strategies)

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13 pages, 1442 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effects of Oregano on Lactation Performance, Nutrient Digestibility, Ruminal Fermentation Parameters, and Methane Emissions in Dairy Cows: A Meta-Analysis

by Ali Mahdavi and Babak Darabighane

Climate 2024, 12(10), 167; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100167 - 21 Oct 2024

Abstract

Growing concerns regarding antibiotic use in livestock, due to antibiotic resistance and potential human transmission, have led to increased interest in herbs and their derivatives, including essential oils, which possess antimicrobial properties that may enhance overall productivity and serve as a strategy for [...] Read more.

Growing concerns regarding antibiotic use in livestock, due to antibiotic resistance and potential human transmission, have led to increased interest in herbs and their derivatives, including essential oils, which possess antimicrobial properties that may enhance overall productivity and serve as a strategy for methane mitigation. The objective of this meta-analysis was to investigate the effects of adding oregano to the diet in different forms (essential oils, plant materials, or leaves) on the dry matter intake (DMI), milk yield (MY), milk components, nutrient digestibility, ruminal fermentation parameters, and methane (CH₄) emissions of dairy cows. A literature search was conducted to identify papers published from 2000 to 2023. Effect size for all outcomes was reported as a standardized means difference (SMD) and raw means difference with 95% confidence intervals. Heterogeneity was determined using the Q test and I² statistic. The results of the meta-analysis indicated that adding oregano had no effect on DMI (SMD = 0.081; p = 0.507) and MY (SMD = 0.060; p = 0.665). Milk fat percentage, milk protein percentage, and milk lactose percentage were not affected by oregano. The addition of oregano to the diet significantly decreased dry matter digestibility (SMD = −0.502; p = 0.013), crude protein digestibility (SMD = −0.374; p = 0.040), and neutral detergent fiber digestibility (SMD = −0.505; p = 0.014). Ruminal pH (SMD = −0.122; p = 0.411), total volatile fatty acids concentration (SMD = −0.038; p = 0.798), acetate (SMD = −0.046; p = 0.757), propionate (SMD = 0.007; p = 0.960), and butyrate (SMD = 0.037; p = 0.801) proportion were not affected by oregano. The addition of oregano to the diet tended to decrease CH₄/DMI (SMD = −0.275; p = 0.095) but did not affect CH₄ production (SMD = −0.156; p = 0.282). Heterogeneity (Q and I²) was non-significant for all parameters. We conclude that the inclusion of oregano in various forms (essential oils, plant materials, or leaves) in the diet of dairy cows reduces nutrient digestibility but does not significantly affect DMI, MY, milk components, ruminal fermentation parameters, or CH₄ production. Future research should focus on optimizing the dosage of oregano (both EOs and plant materials) and exploring the impact of its form on lactation, nutrient digestibility, ruminal fermentation, and CH₄ emissions in dairy cows. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Reframing Strategies for a Low Carbon Future in Agricultural Systems)

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25 pages, 27144 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Two Centuries of Monthly Rainfall in Barcelona (NE Spain): Disparity Trends, Correlation of Autumnal Rainfall with the WeMO Index and Its Contribution to Annual Amounts

by Xavier Lana, Carina Serra, María del Carmen Casas-Castillo, Raül Rodríguez-Solà and Marc Prohom

Climate 2024, 12(10), 166; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100166 - 19 Oct 2024

Abstract

Rainfall irregularity in Mediterranean regions is a characterizing feature of their climate. The aim of this manuscript is to analyze, in a climate change context, the evolution of this irregularity in Barcelona. A very long monthly database (1786–2023) enables detailed analysis of rainfall [...] Read more.

Rainfall irregularity in Mediterranean regions is a characterizing feature of their climate. The aim of this manuscript is to analyze, in a climate change context, the evolution of this irregularity in Barcelona. A very long monthly database (1786–2023) enables detailed analysis of rainfall evolution, with its irregularity quantified using the concept of disparity, the trends of which are assessed using moving windows and a modified Mann–Kendall test. The relationship between disparity and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) is also explored. Additionally, the study compares rainfall amounts to the 1961–1990 reference period and evaluates autumn’s contribution to annual totals. A significant and increasing disparity trend over the years is detected for the autumn months. While correlations between disparity and WeMOi are limited, the WeMOi and monthly precipitation are significantly correlated for two autumn months, October and November, and for December, aligning with previous studies. This suggests the potential influence of the WeMOi fluctuations on future rainfall during these three months. Recent evidence of the increasing autumn irregularity is seen in the consecutive low-rainfall years of 2021, 2022 and 2023, which stand out as the driest since 1835, with the last two autumns ranking among the 5% driest. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation and Responses to Climate Change)

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14 pages, 2173 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reconstructing and Hindcasting Sea Ice Conditions in Hudson Bay Using a Thermal Variability Framework

by William A. Gough

Climate 2024, 12(10), 165; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100165 - 19 Oct 2024

Abstract

The Hudson Bay seasonal sea ice record has been well known since the advent of satellite reconnaissance, with a continuous record since 1971. To extend the record to earlier decades, a thermal variability framework is used with the surface temperature climatological records from [...] Read more.

The Hudson Bay seasonal sea ice record has been well known since the advent of satellite reconnaissance, with a continuous record since 1971. To extend the record to earlier decades, a thermal variability framework is used with the surface temperature climatological records from four climate stations along the Hudson Bay shoreline: Churchill, Manitoba; Kuujjurapik, Quebec; Inukjuak, Quebec; and Coral Harbour, Nunavut. The day-to-day surface temperature variation for the minimum temperature of the day was found to be well correlated to the known seasonal sea ice distribution in the Bay. The sea ice/thermal variability relationship was able to reproduce the existing sea ice record (the average breakup and freeze-up dates for the Bay) largely within the error limits of the sea ice data (1 week), as well as filling in some gaps in the existing sea ice record. The breakup dates, freeze-up dates, and ice-free season lengths were generated for the period of 1922 to 1970, with varying degrees of confidence, adding close to 50 years to the sea ice record. Key periods in the spring and fall were found to be critical, signaling the time when the changes in the sea conditions are first notable in the temperature variability record, often well in advance of the 5/10th ice coverage used for the sea ice record derived from ice charts. These key periods in advance of the breakup and freeze-up could be potentially used, in season, as a predictor for navigation. The results are suggestive of a fundamental change in the nature of the breakup (faster) and freeze-up (longer) in recent years. Full article

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26 pages, 1181 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Determinants of Adapting to the Consequences of Climate Change in the Peruvian Highlands: The Role of General and Behavior-Specific Evaluations, Experiences, and Expectations

by Robert Tobias, Adrian Brügger and Fredy S. Monge-Rodriguez

Climate 2024, 12(10), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12100164 - 16 Oct 2024

Abstract

Progressive climate change (CC) forces people—particularly in the Global South—to adapt to its consequences, some of which include droughts, flooding, and new diseases. This study investigates the determinants of behaviors for adapting to these threats in a population from the region of Cusco [...] Read more.

Progressive climate change (CC) forces people—particularly in the Global South—to adapt to its consequences, some of which include droughts, flooding, and new diseases. This study investigates the determinants of behaviors for adapting to these threats in a population from the region of Cusco (Peru). Data were gathered via a cross-sectional interview-based survey in 2016, using random-route sampling. For up to 542 cases, we regressed a scale combining performed behaviors and intentions on psychological constructs, for the entire and sub-samples (n > 179, allowing to detect an R² of 10% with a power of 80% at p = 0.05). Behavior-specific evaluations—particularly perceived feasibility (β = 0.355), descriptive norms (β = 0.267), and cost-benefit evaluations (β = 0.235)—can explain most of the variance (44% with a total R² = 61%). Furthermore, trust in specific sources (β = 0.106), general trust (β = 0.098), and negative attitudes toward nature (β = 0.077) are positively related to adaptation, particularly regarding public behaviors (supporting community projects and policies). However, evaluations directly related to CC, such as risk perception (β = 0.010) or how much a behavior helps prevent damage (adaptation efficacy, β = −0.042)), do not explain adaptation, except for an effect of adaptation efficacy on changing daily behaviors. Experiences with and expectations of CC consequences are mostly unrelated to adaptation. However, worries about such events are correlated with adaptation (r between 0.097 and 0.360). We conclude that, to promote adaptation behaviors in this region, the focus should be on the characteristics of the behavior performance (e.g., its costs or feasibility), not on the expected risks of extreme events because of CC. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)

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