Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives

Journal Name	Impact Factor	CiteScore	Launched Year	First Decision (median)	APC
Agronomy agronomy	3.3	6.2	2011	15.5 Days	CHF 2600	Submit
Applied Sciences applsci	2.5	5.3	2011	17.8 Days	CHF 2400	Submit
Climate climate	3.0	5.5	2013	21.9 Days	CHF 1800	Submit
Forests forests	2.4	4.4	2010	16.9 Days	CHF 2600	Submit
Remote Sensing remotesensing	4.2	8.3	2009	24.7 Days	CHF 2700	Submit
Sustainability sustainability	3.3	6.8	2009	20 Days	CHF 2400	Submit
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ijgi	2.8	6.9	2012	36.2 Days	CHF 1700	Submit

19 pages, 9113 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Causes of Increased Compound Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events in the Arid Region of Northwest China from 1961 to 2100

by Huihui Niu, Weijun Sun, Baojuan Huai, Yuzhe Wang, Rensheng Chen, Chuntan Han, Yingshan Wang, Jiaying Zhou and Lei Wang

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(17), 3111; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16173111 - 23 Aug 2024

Viewed by 485

Abstract

Compound extreme events pose more grave threats to human health, the natural environment, and socioeconomic systems than do individual extreme events. However, the drivers and spatiotemporal change characteristics of compound extreme events under climate transition remain poorly understood, especially in the arid region [...] Read more.

Compound extreme events pose more grave threats to human health, the natural environment, and socioeconomic systems than do individual extreme events. However, the drivers and spatiotemporal change characteristics of compound extreme events under climate transition remain poorly understood, especially in the arid region of Northwest China. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics and driving mechanisms of extreme temperature and precipitation compound events in Northwest China based on data from 86 national meteorological stations and 11 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6. The results indicated that (1) the frequency values of heat extremity–dry (1.60/10a) and heat extremity–heavy precipitation (0.60/10a) events increased from 1961 to 2020, and showed a faster uptrend after 1990 than before. (2) Under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, there is also the likelihood of an upward trend in heat extremity–dry and heat extremity–heavy precipitation events in Northwest China by the end of 21 century, especially under SSP585, with probability values of 1.70/10a and 1.00/10a, respectively. (3) A soil moisture deficit leads to decreased evaporation and increased sensible heat by reduction in the soil–atmosphere exchange; the non-adiabatic heating process leads to a higher frequency of hot days. This land–air interaction feedback mechanism is a significant driver of heat extremity–dry events in Northwest China. (4) In the Northwest China region, the warmer trend surpasses the wetter trend, contributing to increased specific humidity, and the vapor pressure deficit may lead to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation, consequently increasing heat extremity–heavy precipitation events. These results provide new insights for the understanding of compound extreme events, in order to cope with their risks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 1212 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predictive Analysis of Adaptation to Drought of Farmers in the Central Zone of Colombia

by Jorge Armando Hernández-López, Diana Ximena Puerta-Cortés and Hernán J. Andrade

Sustainability 2024, 16(16), 7210; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16167210 - 22 Aug 2024

Viewed by 599

Abstract

Drought constitutes one of the natural phenomena that causes the greatest socio-economic, and environmental losses in both the short and long term worldwide. Each year, these events are related to the presence of “El Niño—Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), which occurs throughout Colombia and has [...] Read more.

Drought constitutes one of the natural phenomena that causes the greatest socio-economic, and environmental losses in both the short and long term worldwide. Each year, these events are related to the presence of “El Niño—Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), which occurs throughout Colombia and has serious consequences in the agricultural and food sectors, as well as in most of the country’s population. Farmers have adopted a number of strategies to mitigate the negative impact of droughts on food production. Certainly, when implementing future strategies, such strategies will be less effective if farmers’ insights on ENSO are not considered. Consequently, this study was carried out to analyze the variables that predict adaptation to droughts in the dry zones of the department of Tolima. Three questionnaires were designed: socioeconomic vulnerability (SVT), risk perception (SRPT) and drought adaptation (SAT). A non-probability sample of 538 farmers was surveyed. Socio-economic vulnerability and drought perception were found to be predictive of drought adaptation in the study sample, and older people were found to be resilient to adaptation. The results of this research provide empirical evidence to analyze and formulate public policies about the impact of droughts on the most vulnerable populations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 1171 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Adaptation and Coping Strategies of Women to Reduce Food Insecurity in an Era of Climate Change: A Case of Chireya District, Zimbabwe

by Everjoy Magwegwe, Taruberekerwa Zivengwa and Mashford Zenda

Climate 2024, 12(8), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080126 - 22 Aug 2024

Viewed by 856

Abstract

The research investigated how women employ various adaptation and coping mechanisms to alleviate food insecurity resulting from the impacts of climate change. The documentation of the debate on the role of women in adaptation and coping with climate change is relatively limited. Climate [...] Read more.

The research investigated how women employ various adaptation and coping mechanisms to alleviate food insecurity resulting from the impacts of climate change. The documentation of the debate on the role of women in adaptation and coping with climate change is relatively limited. Climate change’s effect on food security in semi-arid areas could potentially increase the population of individuals residing in severe poverty. Over the past three decades, Africa’s sub-tropics have experienced irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts, which have negatively affected agriculture and food production. This research utilized a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches within a mixed-method design, guided by the pragmatic paradigm. Based on the results of the study, water harvesting/dam construction and income generating projects (IGPs) were identified as the most effective coping strategies for women. This study recommends implementing awareness campaigns to educate women farmers about the negative effects of climate change and the need for integrated and comprehensive capacity-building frameworks. By understanding the challenges women face in adapting to and coping with climate change, it is hoped that more effective and sustainable solutions can be developed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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20 pages, 1305 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Impact of the Digital Economy on Carbon Emission Reduction and Its Spatial Spillover Effect—The Case of Eastern Coastal Cities in China

by Juanjuan Zhong, Ye Duan, Caizhi Sun and Hongye Wang

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2024, 13(8), 293; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13080293 - 18 Aug 2024

Viewed by 615

Abstract

The expansion of the digital economy is crucial for halting climate change, as carbon emissions from urban energy use contribute significantly to global warming. This study uses the Difference-in-Differences Model and the Spatial Durbin Model determine whether the digital economy may support the [...] Read more.

The expansion of the digital economy is crucial for halting climate change, as carbon emissions from urban energy use contribute significantly to global warming. This study uses the Difference-in-Differences Model and the Spatial Durbin Model determine whether the digital economy may support the development of reducing carbon emissions and its geographic spillover effects in Chinese cities on the east coast. In addition, it looks more closely at the effects of lowering carbon emissions in space by separating them into direct, indirect, and spatial impact parts. The findings show that (1) from 2012 to 2021, the digital economy favored carbon emission reductions in China’s eastern coastline cities, as supported by the robustness test. (2) The link between digital economy growth and carbon emissions is highly variable, with smart city development and urban agglomeration expansion both cutting city carbon emissions considerably. Successful digital economy strategies can lower CO₂ emissions from nearby cities. (3) Eastern coastal cities have a considerable spatial spillover impact, and the digital economy mitigates local energy consumption and carbon emissions while simultaneously enhancing environmental quality in nearby urban areas. This analysis proposes that the peak carbon and carbon neutrality targets can be met by increasing the digital economy and enhancing regional environmental governance cooperation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 1635 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Interpolation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Use in Canada from Fertilizer Use Surveys

by James Arthur Dyer, Angela Pearson and Raymond Louis Desjardins

Agronomy 2024, 14(8), 1700; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14081700 - 1 Aug 2024

Viewed by 512

Abstract

Canadian nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has more than doubled since 1990 (1.2 to 2.9 MtN by 2021). Consequently, a better understanding of this trend is needed. A comprehensive set of recommended N rates (RNRs) that agreed with the fertilizer sales data from 1996 [...] Read more.

Canadian nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has more than doubled since 1990 (1.2 to 2.9 MtN by 2021). Consequently, a better understanding of this trend is needed. A comprehensive set of recommended N rates (RNRs) that agreed with the fertilizer sales data from 1996 and 2001 was compared with the Fertilizer Use Survey (FUS). The FUS was conducted from 2014 to 2021, with 2017 being the most representative year for these data. Using non-parametric statistics, confidence intervals were derived from the histograms used to present the FUS data. N application rates from the RNR for canola, spring and Duram wheat, and oats in the west were all below their respective FUS confidence intervals, whereas N application rates for grain corn showed almost no difference in N use between the RNR and FUS. Crop-specific N application rates interpolated from the RNR and FUS were integrated over their respective crop areas and plotted against national fertilizer sales records from 1990 to 2021. The rapid increase in N use between 2001 and 2017 (0.89 MtN), 90% of it (0.80 MtN) in Western Canada, was primarily due to the increased application rates per crop, rather than crop area changes. The RNR-FUS interpolations were a good approximation of N sales records and could improve farm GHG emissions modelling. The economically important crops in Western Canada should be the main focus for N-related GHG reduction measures, but production losses need to be avoided. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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29 pages, 6065 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Challenges to Viticulture in Montenegro under Climate Change

by António Fernandes, Nataša Kovač, Hélder Fraga, André Fonseca, Sanja Šućur Radonjić, Marko Simeunović, Kruna Ratković, Christoph Menz, Sergi Costafreda-Aumedes and João A. Santos

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2024, 13(8), 270; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13080270 - 30 Jul 2024

Viewed by 590

Abstract

The Montenegrin climate is characterised as very heterogeneous due to its complex topography. The viticultural heritage, dating back to before the Roman empire, is settled in a Mediterranean climate region, located south of the capital Podgorica, where climate conditions favour red wine production. [...] Read more.

The Montenegrin climate is characterised as very heterogeneous due to its complex topography. The viticultural heritage, dating back to before the Roman empire, is settled in a Mediterranean climate region, located south of the capital Podgorica, where climate conditions favour red wine production. However, an overall increase in warmer and drier periods affects traditional viticulture. The present study aims to discuss climate change impacts on Montenegrin viticulture. Bioclimatic indices, ensembled from five climate models, were analysed for both historical (1981–2010) and future (2041–2070) periods upon three socio-economic pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. CHELSA (≈1 km) was the selected dataset for this analysis. Obtained results for all scenarios have shown the suppression of baseline conditions for viticulture. The average summer temperature might reach around 29.5 °C, and the growing season average temperature could become higher than 23.5 °C, advancing phenological events. The Winkler index is estimated to range from 2900 °C up to 3100 °C, which is too hot for viticulture. Montenegrin viticulture requires the application of adaptation measures focused on reducing temperature-increase impacts. The implementation of adaptation measures shall start in the coming years, to assure the lasting productivity and sustainability of viticulture. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 4430 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Repeated Mild Summer Drought in Crataegus monogyna Jacq. Provokes Compensation Growth in the Following Year

by Kristine Vander Mijnsbrugge, Stefaan Moreels, Laura Decorte, Marie Stessens and Eduardo Notivol Paino

Forests 2024, 15(7), 1234; https://doi.org/10.3390/f15071234 - 16 Jul 2024

Viewed by 544

Abstract

Water limitations will pose significant challenges to forest ecosystems across Europe. To gain a deeper understanding of the potential impacts, we investigated the response of the common shrub Crataegus monogyna to two summer droughts, each followed by rewatering. The experimental design consisted of [...] Read more.

Water limitations will pose significant challenges to forest ecosystems across Europe. To gain a deeper understanding of the potential impacts, we investigated the response of the common shrub Crataegus monogyna to two summer droughts, each followed by rewatering. The experimental design consisted of a common garden with potted saplings from a local Belgian (n = 48), a Swedish (n = 47), and a Spanish-Pyrenean provenance (n = 48). We quantified the effects on growth and leaf phenology, focusing on the legacies in the year following the droughts. Responses were influenced by the severity of the drought and by its timing. Most strikingly, height increment was enhanced by 24% (p = 0.046) in comparison to the controls in the year following the droughts in the group of plants that endured the two drought treatments, each time without developing visible stress symptoms. Only one such mild drought, whether early or late summer, did not lead to this response, suggesting stress memory acting as a growth promoter. A late summer drought that resulted in visible drought symptoms led to a reduced diameter increment in the year following the droughts, independent of the preceding treatment (severe, mild, or no drought), whereas this was not the case for a similar drought in early summer. Minor leaf phenological responses were detected in the year following the droughts. Finally, the non-local provenances did not respond in a deviating way to the droughts compared to the local provenance. Our findings contribute to the prediction of carbon sequestration in forests and other woody vegetations in the temperate regions of Europe. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 4476 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Flood Risk Assessment for Sustainable Transportation Planning and Development under Climate Change: A GIS-Based Comparative Analysis of CMIP6 Scenarios

by Muamer Abuzwidah, Ahmed Elawady, Ayat Gamal Ashour, Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz, Abdallah Shanableh and Waleed Zeiada

Sustainability 2024, 16(14), 5939; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16145939 - 12 Jul 2024

Viewed by 746

Abstract

Climate change is causing a range of environmental impacts, including increased flood frequency and intensity, posing significant risks to human populations and transportation infrastructure. Assessing flood risk under climate change is critical, but it is challenging due to uncertainties associated with climate projections [...] Read more.

Climate change is causing a range of environmental impacts, including increased flood frequency and intensity, posing significant risks to human populations and transportation infrastructure. Assessing flood risk under climate change is critical, but it is challenging due to uncertainties associated with climate projections and the need to consider the interactions between different factors that influence flood risk. Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are powerful tools that can be used to assess flood risk under climate change by gathering and integrating a range of data types and sources to create detailed maps of flood-prone areas. The primary goal of this research is to create a comprehensive GIS-based flood risk map that includes various climate change scenarios derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. This goal will leverage the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology to better understand the impacts of these climate change scenarios on the transportation network. Furthermore, this study aims to evaluate the existing flood risk map and assess the potential impacts of prospective climate scenarios on the levels of flood risk. The results showed that the northern and coastal regions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are at higher risk of flooding, with the majority of the population living in these areas. The projections for future flood risk levels indicate that under the SSP245 scenario, flood risk levels will generally be low, but some areas in the northern and eastern regions of the UAE may still face high to very high flood risk levels due to extensive urbanization and low-lying coastal regions. Under the SSP585 scenario, flood risk levels are projected to be significantly higher, with a widespread distribution of very high and high flood risk levels across the study area, leading to severe damage to infrastructure, property, and human lives. The recent publication of the CMIP6 models marks a significant advancement, and according to the authors’ knowledge, there have been no studies that have yet explored the application of CMIP6 scenarios. Consequently, the insights provided by this study are poised to be exceptionally beneficial to researchers globally, underscoring the urgent necessity for holistic sustainable flood risk management approaches for geography, planning, and development areas. These approaches should integrate both sustainable transportation infrastructure development and risk mitigation strategies to effectively address the anticipated impacts of flooding events within the study region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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12 pages, 2154 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effects of Warming and Increased Precipitation on Root Production and Turnover of Stipa breviflora Community in Desert Steppe

by Qi Li, Jianying Guo, Zhanyi Wang, Chengjie Wang, Pengbo Liu, Guangyi Lv, Zhenqi Yang, Chunjie Wang and Xiao Qiu

Agronomy 2024, 14(7), 1521; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071521 - 12 Jul 2024

Viewed by 460

Abstract

Organic carbon in grassland mainly exists in the soil, and root production and turnover play important roles in carbon input into the soil. However, the effects of climate change on plant root dynamics in desert steppe are unknown. We conducted an experiment in [...] Read more.

Organic carbon in grassland mainly exists in the soil, and root production and turnover play important roles in carbon input into the soil. However, the effects of climate change on plant root dynamics in desert steppe are unknown. We conducted an experiment in a desert steppe, which included ambient temperature (T0); temperature increased by 2 °C (T1); temperature increased by 4 °C (T2); natural precipitation (P0); precipitation increased by 25% (P1); precipitation increased by 50% (P2); and the interaction between warming and increased precipitation. Plant community aboveground characteristics; root production; and root turnover were measured. We found that the root length production of the T0P2; T1P1; T2P0; and T2P1 treatments were significantly higher than that of the T0P0 treatment, with an increment of 98.70%, 11.72%, 163.03%, and 85.14%, respectively. Three treatments with temperature increased by 2 °C (T1P0; T1P1; and T1P2) and significantly increased root turnover rate compared to the T0P0 treatment, with increases of 62.53%, 42.57%, and 35.55%, respectively. The interaction between warming and increased precipitation significantly affected the root production of the community (p < 0.01), but this interaction was non-additive. Future climate warming will benefit the accumulation of root-derived carbon in desert steppe communities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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19 pages, 6338 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Small Municipalities in the Amazon under the Risk of Future Climate Change

by Everaldo B. de Souza, Brenda C. S. Silva, Emilene M. F. Serra, Melgris J. Becerra Ruiz, Alan C. Cunha, Paulo J. P. O. Souza, Luciano P. Pezzi, Edson J. P. da Rocha, Adriano M. L. Sousa, João de Athaydes Silva, Jr., Alexandre M. C. do Carmo, Douglas B. S. Ferreira, Aline M. M. Lima, Flavio A. A dos Santos, Bergson C. Moraes, Maria de L. P. Ruivo, Peter M. Toledo and Tercio Ambrizzi

Climate 2024, 12(7), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12070095 - 29 Jun 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 809

Abstract

The focus of this work is on small municipalities (population below 50 thousand inhabitants) that cover around 87% of the territory of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Based on a comprehensive integrated analysis approach using the three components hazard (climate extremes from CMIP6 [...] Read more.

The focus of this work is on small municipalities (population below 50 thousand inhabitants) that cover around 87% of the territory of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Based on a comprehensive integrated analysis approach using the three components hazard (climate extremes from CMIP6 future scenarios), exposure (directly affected population), and vulnerability (subdimensions of susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity by using multidimensional indicators), the latter two using current datasets provided by the official Census IBGE 2022, we document a quantitative assessment of the risk R of natural disasters in the BLA region. We evidenced a worrying and imminent intensification of the curve of R in most Amazonian municipalities over the next two 25-year periods. The overall results of the highest proportions of R (total municipalities affected) pointed out the Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, and Maranhão as the main states, presenting projected categories of R high in the near future (2015 to 2039) and very high in the far future (2040 to 2064). The detailed assessment of the susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity allowed us to elucidate the principal indicators that aggravate the degree of vulnerability: economy, the precariousness of urban infrastructure, medical services, communication, and urban mobility, whose combined factors, unfortunately, reveal a widespread poverty profile along the small Amazonian municipalities. Our scientific findings can assist decision makers in targeted strategies planning and public policies to minimize and mitigate ongoing and future climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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27 pages, 10897 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Historic Changes and Future Projections in Köppen–Geiger Climate Classifications in Major Wine Regions Worldwide

by Cristina Andrade, André Fonseca, João A. Santos, Benjamin Bois and Gregory V. Jones

Climate 2024, 12(7), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12070094 - 27 Jun 2024

Viewed by 797

Abstract

A valuable tool for comprehending and characterizing climate patterns on a global scale is the Köppen–Geiger climate classification system. When it comes to wine production, the climate of a region plays an essential role in determining whether specific grape varieties can be cultivated, [...] Read more.

A valuable tool for comprehending and characterizing climate patterns on a global scale is the Köppen–Geiger climate classification system. When it comes to wine production, the climate of a region plays an essential role in determining whether specific grape varieties can be cultivated, largely determining the style of wine that can be made, and influencing the consistency of overall wine quality. In this study, the application of the Köppen–Geiger classification system to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) experiments has been explored. To establish a baseline for the historical period (1970–2000), the WorldClim dataset was used alongside a selection of an ensemble of 14 Global Climate Models. The evaluation of climate variability across winemaking regions is conducted by considering future climate projections from 2041 to 2060, which are based on different anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5). The results are the most comprehensive documentation of both the historical climate classifications for most wine regions worldwide and the potential changes in these classifications in the future. General changes in climate types are projected to occur largely in a significant shift from a warm summer climate to a hot summer climate in temperate and dry zones worldwide (climate types C and B, respectively). This shift poses challenges for grape cultivation and wine production. The grape development process can be significantly affected by high temperatures, which could result in early ripening and changes in the grape berry’s aromatic compounds. As regions transition and experience different climates, wine producers are required to adapt their vineyard management strategies by implementing suitable measures that can effectively counter the detrimental impacts of abiotic stresses on grape quality and vineyard health. These adaptation measures may include changes in canopy and soil management, using different variety-clone-rootstock combinations, adopting irrigation methods, or shifting into other microclimatic zones, among other effective techniques. To ensure long-term sustainability, wine producers must consider the climatic change projections that are specific to their region, allowing them to make more informed decisions about vineyard management practices, reducing risks, and ultimately making the wine industry more resilient and adaptive to the ongoing effects of climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 2639 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change-Induced Growth Decline in Planted Forests of Quercus variabilis Blume near Beijing, China

by Ayjamal Keram, Puyuan Liu, Guolei Li, Wen Liu and Ümüt Halik

Forests 2024, 15(7), 1086; https://doi.org/10.3390/f15071086 - 22 Jun 2024

Viewed by 871

Abstract

A progressive decline in tree growth may be induced by global warming, affecting tree health and eventually resulting in death, particularly for trees growing in rocky mountainous regions where seasonal droughts have become more pronounced. However, tree growth dynamics in areas experiencing pronounced [...] Read more.

A progressive decline in tree growth may be induced by global warming, affecting tree health and eventually resulting in death, particularly for trees growing in rocky mountainous regions where seasonal droughts have become more pronounced. However, tree growth dynamics in areas experiencing pronounced climate change have received little attention. In this study, a total of 100 (10 m × 10 m) grid plots were investigated in planted forests of Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis Blume), which were established in the 1960s and 1970s in a rocky mountainous area near Beijing, northern China. Furthermore, the radial growth of Q. variabilis (a total of 843 trees sampled from the dominant [D], co-dominant [CD], and suppressed [S] crown classes) was analyzed using retrospective dendrochronology and generalized additive models. The effects of meteorological changes between 1962 and 2020 on radial growth across the three crown classes were examined using correlation analysis. The results indicated that the growth of Q. variabilis initially increased and then decreased after 2010 at the regional level, and these trends varied according to crown class. The radial growth of the D trees responded more positively to an increase in temperature and drought severity index (<0 for dry and >0 for wet conditions) compared with that of the CD and S trees. The growth of the D and CD trees continuously increased under higher temperatures during the rainy seasons (June to September); however, the increases were higher for D than for CD trees. In contrast, the radial growth of S trees declined. We confirmed the historical effects of rising temperatures on tree growth and health, which are linked to water availability. Our data suggested that Q. variabilis trees will be considerably affected by intensified droughts. This study furthers our knowledge regarding the impact of climate change on tree and forest growth and provides management strategies for afforestation projects in rocky mountainous areas that are facing climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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22 pages, 4205 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sustainable Geoinformatic Approaches to Insurance for Small-Scale Farmers in Colombia

by Ahmad Abd Rabuh, Richard M. Teeuw, Doyle Ray Oakey, Athanasios V. Argyriou, Max Foxley-Marrable and Alan Wilkins

Sustainability 2024, 16(12), 5104; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16125104 - 15 Jun 2024

Viewed by 782

Abstract

This article presents a low-cost insurance system developed for smallholder farms in disaster-prone regions, primarily using free Earth observation (EO) data and free open source software’s (FOSS), collectively termed “sustainable geoinformatics.” The study examined 30 farms in Risaralda Department, Colombia. A digital elevation [...] Read more.

This article presents a low-cost insurance system developed for smallholder farms in disaster-prone regions, primarily using free Earth observation (EO) data and free open source software’s (FOSS), collectively termed “sustainable geoinformatics.” The study examined 30 farms in Risaralda Department, Colombia. A digital elevation model (12.5 m pixels) from the ALOS PALSAR satellite sensor was used with a geographic information system (GIS) to map the terrain, drainage, and geohazards of each farming district. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to carry out time-series analysis of 15 EO and weather datasets for 1998 to 2020. This analysis enabled the levels of risk from hydrometeorological hazards to be determined for each farm of the study, providing key data for the setting of insurance premiums. A parametric insurance product was developed using a proprietary mobile phone app that collected GPS-tagged, time-stamped mobile phone photos to verify crop damage, with further verification of crop health also provided by daily near-real-time satellite imagery (e.g., PlanetScope with 3 m pixels). Machine learning was used for feature identification with the photos and the satellite imagery. Key features of this insurance system are its low operational cost and rapid damage verification relative to conventional approaches to farm insurance. This relatively fast, low-cost, and affordable approach to insurance for small-scale farming enhances sustainable development by enabling policyholder farmers to recover more quickly from disasters. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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19 pages, 4487 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Enhancing Seasonal PM2.5 Estimations in China through Terrain–Wind–Rained Index (TWRI): A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach

by Boqi Peng, Busheng Xie, Wei Wang and Lixin Wu

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(12), 2145; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16122145 - 13 Jun 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 516

Abstract

PM2.5 concentrations, closely linked to human health, are significantly influenced by meteorological and topographical factors. This study introduces the Terrain–Wind–Rain Index (TWRI), a novel index that integrates the Terrain–Wind Closed Index (TWCI) with relative humidity to quantitatively examine the coupling effect of natural [...] Read more.

PM2.5 concentrations, closely linked to human health, are significantly influenced by meteorological and topographical factors. This study introduces the Terrain–Wind–Rain Index (TWRI), a novel index that integrates the Terrain–Wind Closed Index (TWCI) with relative humidity to quantitatively examine the coupling effect of natural elements on PM2.5 concentration and its application to PM2.5 inversion. By employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models, this study evaluates the inversion results of PM2.5 concentrations using TWRI as a factor. Results reveal that the annual average correlation between TWRI and site-measured PM2.5 concentrations increased from 0.65 to 0.71 compared to TWCI. Correlations improved across all seasons, with the most significant enhancement occurring in summer, from 0.51 to 0.66. On the inversion results of PM2.5, integrating TWRI into traditional models boosted accuracy by 1.3%, 5.4%, 4%, and 7.9% across four seasons, primarily due to the varying correlation between TWRI and PM2.5. Furthermore, the inversion results of coupled TWRI more effectively highlight the high value areas in closed areas and the low value areas in humid areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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23 pages, 7330 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Dry–Wet Changes in a Typical Agriculture and Pasture Ecotone in China between 1540 and 2019

by Xiaodong Wang, Yujia Song, Yu An, Xiaohui Liu and Xiaoqiang Li

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2024, 13(6), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13060191 - 7 Jun 2024

Viewed by 750

Abstract

Exploring periodic dry–wet changes is an important topic in climate change research due to its impact on drought and flood disasters. The purpose of this research was to determine the occurrence law of dry–wet changes in China on a scale of several hundred [...] Read more.

Exploring periodic dry–wet changes is an important topic in climate change research due to its impact on drought and flood disasters. The purpose of this research was to determine the occurrence law of dry–wet changes in China on a scale of several hundred years, using the example of transitional zones. In this study, we analyzed typical areas of the ecotone between agricultural land and pasture along the Great Wall of China. The ring width index of Carya cathayensis was fitted with the March–August Palmer drought severity index (PDSI₃₈). The PDSI₃₈ was divided into different periods using the stepwise function fitting method. The results indicated that there were two dry periods and one wet period in the region from 1543 to 2019. In each dry and wet period, there were also different temporal periods, including long (decades), intermediate (ten years), and short periods (several years). Drought represents a significant threat to agricultural production in China. In the first dry period (1543–1756), four periods with low PDSI₃₈ values (1633–1635, PDSI₃₈ = −1.71; 1636–1939, PDSI₃₈ = −3.35; 1640–1642, PDSI₃₈ = −4.68; and 1643–1645, PDSI₃₈ = −2.92) occurred, during which severe droughts (PDSI₃₈ < −4) lasted for 13 years. The dry–wet change showed the characteristics of a 12-year or multiple 12-year cycle. The results can be used to prepare to effectively address extreme drought scenarios worldwide in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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16 pages, 4711 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Potential of Modified Reduced Tillage with Cover/Green Manure Crop for Climate Change Mitigation in a Smallholder Rainfed Farming System

by Nabeeha Javed, Shahzada Sohail Ijaz, Qaiser Hussain, Muhammad Ansar, Abdulwahed Fahad Alrefaei, Bader O. Almutairi, Wajid Zaman and Munazza Yousra

Sustainability 2024, 16(11), 4781; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114781 - 4 Jun 2024

Viewed by 890

Abstract

Soil can function as a reservoir and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), contingent on its management. This study assesses the potential of a modified reduced tillage (MRT) approach involving the use of cover or green manure crops as a substitute for crop [...] Read more.

Soil can function as a reservoir and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs), contingent on its management. This study assesses the potential of a modified reduced tillage (MRT) approach involving the use of cover or green manure crops as a substitute for crop residues to mitigate GHG emissions from soil within smallholder rainfed farming systems. A two-year field experiment with different tillage techniques (moldboard plow, tine cultivator, and modified reduced tillage) and crop rotations (summer fallow–wheat and cover/green manure–wheat) was conducted at Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The results showed that MRT reduced carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions by 8% and 15.3%, respectively, from soil while maintaining consistently higher soil moisture than conventional tillage techniques. The modified reduced tillage reduced the global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) by 15.8% and 20.7%, respectively. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was unaffected by the tillage systems. Therefore, adopting the MRT technique and incorporating green manure is a viable strategy for curtailing GHG emissions from soil, particularly in the context of smallholder rainfed farming systems. Extended, multi-year studies under various climate scenarios and agronomic practices are needed to understand the long-term impacts of MRT and crop rotations on GHG emissions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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17 pages, 2129 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Urban Vulnerability under the Extreme High Temperatures in the Chengdu-Chongqing Area, Western China

by Zhaoqi Yin, Weipeng Li, Zhongsheng Chen, Li Zhu and Panheng Shui

Sustainability 2024, 16(11), 4749; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114749 - 3 Jun 2024

Viewed by 650

Abstract

The frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events in the summer under global climate change poses a serious threat to Chinese society. An urban vulnerability evaluation system for counties in the Chengdu-Chongqing Area was constructed to calculate the urban vulnerability and distribution characteristics of [...] Read more.

The frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events in the summer under global climate change poses a serious threat to Chinese society. An urban vulnerability evaluation system for counties in the Chengdu-Chongqing Area was constructed to calculate the urban vulnerability and distribution characteristics of each district. In this study, a vulnerability-contribution model was used to analyze the types of urban vulnerability in the Chengdu-Chongqing Area. Additionally, combined with the optimal parameter geographic detector (OPGD) model, the main influencing factors and interactions of urban vulnerability were explored. The results show that: ① The urban vulnerability of the Chengdu-Chongqing Area is high in the east and low in the west, with vulnerability degree mostly below the medium degree. ② Exposure contributes more than 50% to severe and general urban vulnerability in the region, while adaptability contributes the highest proportion to mild urban vulnerability, reaching 47.53%. ③ From the factor perspective, the impact ratio of high-temperature days on urban vulnerability is 39.1%, and the interaction between various meteorological factors and social factors produces an enhancement effect, with the highest interaction q-value reaching 0.7863. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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22 pages, 2803 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Vulnerability of Households Led by Men and Women to the Impacts of Climate-Related Natural Disasters in the Coastal Areas of Myanmar and Vietnam

by Aung Tun Oo, Ame Cho and Dao Duy Minh

Climate 2024, 12(6), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12060082 - 2 Jun 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1358

Abstract

Farm households along the coastlines of Myanmar and Vietnam are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, saltwater intrusion, and rising sea levels. There is little information available on the relative vulnerability of men- and women-headed households, and the governments of Myanmar and Vietnam have [...] Read more.

Farm households along the coastlines of Myanmar and Vietnam are becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding, saltwater intrusion, and rising sea levels. There is little information available on the relative vulnerability of men- and women-headed households, and the governments of Myanmar and Vietnam have not identified or implemented any adaptive measures aimed specifically at vulnerable peoples. This study aims to fill these gaps and assess the relative climate change vulnerability of men- and women-headed farm households. This study considers 599 farm households from two regions of Myanmar and 300 households from Thua Thien Hue province of Vietnam for the period 2021–2022. We offer a livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) analysis of men- and women-headed farm households using 46 indicators arranged into seven major components. The aggregate LVI scores indicate that farm households in Myanmar are more vulnerable (scores of 0.459 for men and 0.476 for women) to climate-related natural disasters than farm households in Vietnam (scores of 0.288 for men and 0.292 for women), regardless of the gender of the head of household. Total vulnerability indexing scores indicate that women-headed households are more vulnerable than men-headed households in both countries. Poor adaptive capacity and highly sensitive LVI dimensional scores explain the greater vulnerability of women-headed farm households. The findings also highlight the importance of the adaptive capacity components reflected in the LVI analysis in reducing farm households’ vulnerability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 5159 KiB

Open AccessTechnical Note

Modeling with Hysteresis Better Captures Grassland Growth in Asian Drylands

by Lijuan Miao, Yuyang Zhang, Evgenios Agathokleous, Gang Bao, Ziyu Zhu and Qiang Liu

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(11), 1838; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16111838 - 22 May 2024

Viewed by 711

Abstract

Climate warming hampers grassland growth, particularly in dryland regions. To preserve robust grassland growth and ensure the resilience of grassland in these arid areas, a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between vegetation and climate is imperative. However, existing studies often analyze climate–vegetation interactions [...] Read more.

Climate warming hampers grassland growth, particularly in dryland regions. To preserve robust grassland growth and ensure the resilience of grassland in these arid areas, a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between vegetation and climate is imperative. However, existing studies often analyze climate–vegetation interactions using concurrent vegetation indices and meteorological data, neglecting time-lagged influences from various determinants. To address this void, we employed the random forest machine learning method to predict the grassland NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in Asian drylands (including five central Asia countries, the Republic of Mongolia, and Parts of China) from 2001 to 2020, incorporating time-lag influences. We evaluated the prediction model’s performance using three indexes, namely the coefficient of determination (R²), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results underscore the superiority of the model incorporating time-lag influences, demonstrating its enhanced capability to capture the grassland NDVI in Asian drylands (R² ≥ 0.915, RMSE ≤ 0.033, MAE ≤ 0.019). Conversely, the model without time-lag influences exhibited relatively poor performance, notably inferior to the time-lag-inclusive model. The latter result aligns closely with remote sensing observations and more accurately reproduces the spatial distributions of the grassland NDVI in Asian drylands. Over the study period, the grassland NDVI in Asian drylands exhibited a weak decreasing trend, primarily concentrated in the western region. Notably, key factors influencing the grassland NDVI included the average grassland NDVI in the previous month, total precipitation in the current month, and average soil moisture in the previous month. This study not only pioneers a novel approach to predicting grassland growth but also contributes valuable insights for formulating sustainable strategies to preserve the integrity of grassland ecosystems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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31 pages, 9944 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Unveiling Deviations from IPCC Temperature Projections through Bayesian Downscaling and Assessment of CMIP6 General Circulation Models in a Climate-Vulnerable Region

by Giovanni-Breogán Ferreiro-Lera, Ángel Penas and Sara del Río

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(11), 1831; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16111831 - 21 May 2024

Viewed by 883

Abstract

The European Mediterranean Basin (Euro-Med), a region particularly vulnerable to global warming, notably lacks research aimed at assessing and enhancing the widely used remote climate detection products known as General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, the proficiency of GCMs in replicating reanalyzed [...] Read more.

The European Mediterranean Basin (Euro-Med), a region particularly vulnerable to global warming, notably lacks research aimed at assessing and enhancing the widely used remote climate detection products known as General Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, the proficiency of GCMs in replicating reanalyzed 1981–2010 temperature data sourced from the ERA5 Land was assessed. Initially, the least data-modifying interpolation method for achieving a resolution match of 0.1° was ascertained. Subsequently, a pixel-by-pixel evaluation was conducted, employing five goodness-of-fit metrics. From these metrics, we compiled a Comprehensive Rating Index (CRI). A Multi-Model Ensemble using Random Forest was constructed and projected across three emission scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5) and timeframes (2026–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100). Empirical Bayesian Kriging, selected for its minimal data alteration, supersedes the commonly employed Bilinear Interpolation. The evaluation results underscore MPI-ESM1-2-HR, GFDL-ESM4, CNRM-CM6-1, MRI-ESM2-0, CNRM-ESM2-1, and IPSL-CM6A-LR as top-performing models. Noteworthy geospatial disparities in model performance were observed. The projection outcomes, notably divergent from IPCC forecasts, revealed a warming trend of 1 to over 2 °C less than anticipated for spring and winter over the medium–long term, juxtaposed with heightened warming in mountainous/elevated regions. These findings could substantially refine temperature projections for the Euro-Med, facilitating the implementation of policy strategies to mitigate the effects of global warming in vulnerable regions worldwide. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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17 pages, 8211 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Influence of Spatial Heterogeneity of Urban Green Space on Surface Temperature

by Mengru Zhang, Jianguo Wang and Fei Zhang

Forests 2024, 15(5), 878; https://doi.org/10.3390/f15050878 - 17 May 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 840

Abstract

Urban green space (UGS) has been recognized as a key factor in enhancing the urban ecosystem balance, particularly in arid areas. It is often considered an effective means to mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) effect. In this study, the reference comparison method [...] Read more.

Urban green space (UGS) has been recognized as a key factor in enhancing the urban ecosystem balance, particularly in arid areas. It is often considered an effective means to mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) effect. In this study, the reference comparison method was utilized to optimize the process of nighttime lighting data; the random forest classification method was employed to extract UGS data; and the radiative transfer method was applied in land surface temperature (LST) inversion. Additionally, moving window analysis was conducted to assess the robustness of the results. The objective of this research was to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of UGS and LST and to explore their bivariate local spatial autocorrelations by calculating four landscape metrics, including the aggregation index (AI), edge density (ED), patch density (PD), and area-weighted mean shape index (Shape_am). It was found that the distribution of UGS in the study area was uneven, with higher temperatures in the eastern and western regions and lower temperatures in the central and southern regions. The results also revealed that ED, PD, and Shape_am were negatively correlated with LST, with correlation coefficients being −0.469, −0.388, and −0.411, respectively, indicating that UGS in these regions were more effective in terms of cooling effect. Conversely, AI was found to be positively correlated with LST (Moran’ I index of 0.449), indicating that surface temperatures were relatively higher in regions of high aggregation. In essence, the fragmented, complex, and evenly distributed green patches in the study area provided a better cooling effect. These findings should persuade decision makers and municipal planners to allocate more UGS in cities for UHI alleviation to improve quality of life and enhance recreational opportunities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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21 pages, 4847 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Traces of Local Adaptive Acclimatization Response in the Tracheid Anatomical Traits between Dry and Wet Mesic Norway Spruce (Picea abies) Forests in Moravia, Czech Republic?

by Dimitrios Tsalagkas, Tomáš Novák, Marek Fajstavr, Hanuš Vavrčík, Vladimír Gryc, Petr Horáček and Kyriaki Giagli

Forests 2024, 15(5), 784; https://doi.org/10.3390/f15050784 - 29 Apr 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 708

Abstract

Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests in temperate zones are already reacting to short-term extreme summer heatwaves, threatening the vitality of trees and forest productivity, and can even lead to local and regional dieback events. Examining quantitative wood anatomy can provide helpful [...] Read more.

Norway spruce (Picea abies) forests in temperate zones are already reacting to short-term extreme summer heatwaves, threatening the vitality of trees and forest productivity, and can even lead to local and regional dieback events. Examining quantitative wood anatomy can provide helpful information in terms of understanding the physiology mechanisms and related responses of conifer trees to local environmental interactions in relation to tracheid adaptive capacity. This study analysed the tracheid functional anatomical traits (FATs) plasticity of six young Norway spruce trees growing in two mesic research plots with high annual precipitation (~43%) and air temperature differences during 2010–2017. The research plots are located in the sub-mountainous (Rájec Němčice) and mountainous (Bílý Kříž) belts of the Moravia region, Czech Republic. Vapour pressure deficit and cell wall reinforcement index (CWRI) were shown to be the most representative environmental parameters as proxies of dry conditions. Tracheid FATs indicated latewood phenological plasticity sensitivity, with more pronounced variability in the warmer and drier plots. Latewood tracheids of Norway spruce trees grown in the RAJ formed significantly thicker cell walls than BK during the studied period. The observed differences between the two research plots indicate additional support for tracheid cells’ hydraulic safety against cavitation and potential traces of adaptive acclimatization response. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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24 pages, 3485 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Effectiveness of Climate Adaptation Finance and Readiness on Vulnerability in African Economies

by Purity Maina and Anett Parádi-Dolgos

Climate 2024, 12(5), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12050059 - 24 Apr 2024

Viewed by 1696

Abstract

Addressing climate vulnerability remains a priority for economies globally. This study used the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) methodology to investigate the impact of adaptation financing on climate vulnerability. This analysis examined 52 African countries from 2012 to 2021 while considering their climate adaptation [...] Read more.

Addressing climate vulnerability remains a priority for economies globally. This study used the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) methodology to investigate the impact of adaptation financing on climate vulnerability. This analysis examined 52 African countries from 2012 to 2021 while considering their climate adaptation readiness. The impact was also assessed based on the Human Development Index (HDI) categories to reflect different levels of development. The findings showed that adaptation finance considerably influenced climate vulnerability reduction in Africa, particularly in nations with a moderate HDI. However, most countries still need higher levels of adaptation financing, resulting in a small impact on vulnerability reduction. Furthermore, the impact of readiness measures differed by HDI category. Economic and social climate readiness strongly impacted climate vulnerability in high-HDI nations, but governance preparedness was more critical in low-HDI countries. Based on the empirical facts, two policy proposals emerge. First, it is critical to reconsider the distribution of adaptation financing to reduce disparities and effectively alleviate climate vulnerability. Moreover, African economies should consider implementing innovative localized financing mechanisms to mobilize extra adaptation finance. Second, African governments should customize climate readiness interventions based on their HDI levels to improve the achievement of a positive impact on climate vulnerability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 10305 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Impact on the Distribution of Forest Species in the Brazilian Amazon

by Ingrid Lana Lima de Morais, Alexandra Amaro de Lima, Ivinne Nara Lobato dos Santos, Carlos Meneses, Rogério Freire da Silva, Ricardo Lopes, Santiago Linorio Ferreyra Ramos, Ananda Virginia de Aguiar, Marcos Silveira Wrege and Maria Teresa Gomes Lopes

Sustainability 2024, 16(8), 3458; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083458 - 20 Apr 2024

Viewed by 1327

Abstract

Studies using ecological niche models highlight the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. This work aimed to analyze the distribution of timber species Aspidosperma desmanthum, Cariniana micranta, Clarisia racemosa, Couratari oblongifolia, and Vouchysia guianensis, which are targets [...] Read more.

Studies using ecological niche models highlight the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. This work aimed to analyze the distribution of timber species Aspidosperma desmanthum, Cariniana micranta, Clarisia racemosa, Couratari oblongifolia, and Vouchysia guianensis, which are targets of deforestation, to predict the impacts of climate change and identify areas for their conservation in the Amazon. For this purpose, 37 environmental variables were used, including climatic and edaphic factors. The models were fitted using five algorithms, and their performance was evaluated by the metrics Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic, and Sorensen Index. The deforestation analysis was conducted using data accumulated over a period of 14 years. The study indicated that under the most pessimistic predictions, considering continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the use of fossil fuels, SSP5–8.5, potential habitat loss for the studied species was more significant. Analyses of the species show that the Western Amazon has a greater climatic suitability area for the conservation of its genetic resources. Further study of the accumulated deforestation over 14 years showed a reduction in area for all species. Therefore, in situ conservation policies and deforestation reduction are recommended for the perpetuation of the analyzed forest species. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 5346 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial Heterogeneity in the Response of Winter Wheat Yield to Meteorological Dryness/Wetness Variations in Henan Province, China

by Cheng Li, Yuli Gu, Hui Xu, Jin Huang, Bo Liu, Kwok Pan Chun and Thanti Octavianti

Agronomy 2024, 14(4), 817; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14040817 - 14 Apr 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1136

Abstract

Knowledge of the responses of winter wheat yield to meteorological dryness/wetness variations is crucial for reducing yield losses in Henan province, China’s largest winter wheat production region, under the background of climate change. Data on climate, yield and atmospheric circulation indices were collected [...] Read more.

Knowledge of the responses of winter wheat yield to meteorological dryness/wetness variations is crucial for reducing yield losses in Henan province, China’s largest winter wheat production region, under the background of climate change. Data on climate, yield and atmospheric circulation indices were collected from 1987 to 2017, and monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI) values were calculated during the winter wheat growing season. The main results were as follows: (1) Henan could be partitioned into four sub-regions, namely, western, central-western, central-northern and eastern regions, based on the evolution characteristics of the time series of winter wheat yield in 17 cities during the period of 1988–2017. Among them, winter wheat yield was high and stable in the central-northern and eastern regions, with a remarkable increasing trend (p < 0.05). (2) The sc-PDSI in February had significantly positive impacts on climate-driven winter wheat yield in the western and central-western regions (p < 0.05), while the sc-PDSI in December and the sc-PDSI in May had significantly negative impacts on climate-driven winter wheat yield in the central-northern and eastern regions, respectively (p < 0.05). (3) There were time-lag relationships between the sc-PDSI for a specific month and the atmospheric circulation indices in the four sub-regions. Furthermore, we constructed multifactorial models based on selected atmospheric circulation indices, and they had the ability to simulate the sc-PDSI for a specific month in the four sub-regions. These findings will provide scientific references for meteorological dryness/wetness monitoring and risk assessments of winter wheat production. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 48964 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Alterations in China’s GPP Based on the DTEC Model

by Jie Peng, Yayong Xue, Naiqing Pan, Yuan Zhang, Haibin Liang and Fei Zhang

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(8), 1361; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16081361 - 12 Apr 2024

Viewed by 804

Abstract

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a reliable measure of the carbon sink potential of terrestrial ecosystems and is an essential element of terrestrial carbon cycle research. This study employs the diffuse fraction-based two-leaf light-use efficiency (DTEC) model to imitate China’s monthly GPP from [...] Read more.

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a reliable measure of the carbon sink potential of terrestrial ecosystems and is an essential element of terrestrial carbon cycle research. This study employs the diffuse fraction-based two-leaf light-use efficiency (DTEC) model to imitate China’s monthly GPP from 2001 to 2020. We studied the trend of GPP, investigated its relationship with climatic factors, and separated the contributions of climate change and human activities. The findings showed that the DTEC model was widely applicable in China. During the study period, China’s average GPP increased significantly, by 9.77 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ (p < 0.001). The detrimental effect of aerosol optical depth (AOD) on GPP was more widespread than that of total precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Areas that benefited from AOD, such as Northwest China, experienced significant increases in GPP. Climate change and human activities had a primary and positive influence on GPP during the study period, accounting for 28% and 72% of the increase, respectively. Human activities, particularly ecological restoration projects and the adoption of advanced agricultural technologies, played a significant role in China’s GPP growth. China’s afforestation plan was particularly notable, with the GPP increasing in afforestation areas at a rate greater than 10 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. This research provides a theoretical foundation for the long-term management of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and helps develop adaptive ecological restoration tactics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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52 pages, 39816 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Current Situation of Traditional Architecture Located inside Cultural Mayan Heritage Spaces in Remote Villages of Guatemala: Case of the Black Salt Kitchens

by Luis Pablo Yon Secaida, Suguru Mori and Rie Nomura

Sustainability 2024, 16(8), 3194; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16083194 - 11 Apr 2024

Viewed by 893

Abstract

In the town of Sacapulas, located in the mountainous country of Guatemala, there is a constant risk of natural disasters. Floods and landslides occur frequently, resulting in the loss of human lives and cultural aspects. Important to the region, the creation of the [...] Read more.

In the town of Sacapulas, located in the mountainous country of Guatemala, there is a constant risk of natural disasters. Floods and landslides occur frequently, resulting in the loss of human lives and cultural aspects. Important to the region, the creation of the black salt is most affected. This resource has been created since the time of the Mayans on the salt beach surrounding the town. However, from the 1940s onwards, this industry has shrunk. As a result, architectural expressions known as “salt kitchens” have almost disappeared, and there is no information on the subject available. By employing interviews, area survey, and GPS mapping, it was discovered that the location of the salt kitchens is determined by the shape of the beach. However, only one third of the beach area is accessible up to this day. It was discovered that the destruction of the salt kitchens is due to natural elements as well as owners reusing the land for other economically viable functions. To preserve their existence, the first plans of the salt kitchens were created, and will help future researchers if necessary. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 9137 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution of Invasive Freshwater Apple Snail Pomacea canaliculate (Lamarck, 1819) under Climate Change Based on Biomod2

by Tao Wang, Tingjia Zhang, Weibin An, Zailing Wang and Chuanren Li

Agronomy 2024, 14(4), 650; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14040650 - 23 Mar 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1070

Abstract

Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is [...] Read more.

Pomacea canaliculata is widely distributed in the Chinese provinces south of the Yangtze River, causing serious damage to aquatic ecosystems, rice cultivation, and human health. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of P. canaliculata under current and future climate conditions in China is crucial for developing effective early warning measures and facilitating long-term monitoring. In this study, we screened various species distribution models (SDMs), including CTA, GBM, GAM, RF, and XGBOOST, to construct an ensemble model (EM) and then predict suitable habitats for P. canaliculata under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85). The EM (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.96) yielded predictions that were more precise than those from the individual models. The Annual Mean Temperature (Bio1) and Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (Bio18) are the most significant environmental variables affecting the PGDs of P. canaliculata. Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats for P. canaliculata are primarily located south of the Yangtze River, collectively accounting for 17.66% of the nation’s total area. Unsuitable habitats predominate in higher-latitude regions, collectively covering 66.79% of China’s total land area. In future climate scenarios, the total number of suitable habitats for P. canaliculata is projected to expand into higher latitude regions, especially under SSP3-70 and SSP5-85 climate conditions. The 4.1 °C contour of Bio1 and the 366 mm contour of Bio18 determine the northernmost geographical distribution of P. canaliculata. Climate change is likely to increase the risk of P. canaliculata expanding into higher latitudes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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19 pages, 3051 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies

by Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis, Lena Reimann, Gerald Jan Ellen, Gunnel Goransson, Gerben Koers, Lisa Van Well, Bente Vollstedt, Maureen Tsakiris and Amy Oen

Sustainability 2024, 16(6), 2578; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062578 - 21 Mar 2024

Viewed by 808

Abstract

Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On [...] Read more.

Scenario analysis is a widely employed method for addressing uncertainties when assessing the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Global scenarios have been extensively used in this context. However, these scenarios are in most cases not suitable for supporting local analyses. On the other hand, locally developed scenarios may lack the global context, thus having limited comparability with or transferability to other locations. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), which have been primarily developed for climate impact research, provide the possibility to extend the existing global narratives and adapt them to local characteristics in order to develop locally relevant scenarios. Here, we propose a methodological framework for producing harmonized scenarios across different case studies. This framework was developed in the EVOKED project and combines elements of top-down and bottom-up approaches to develop local scenarios for four regions in northern Europe. We employ the SSP as boundary conditions and, in cooperation with stakeholders from these four regions, develop local scenarios for a range of SSP. The developed sets of scenarios are consistently informed by global developments and are therefore comparable with other downscaled scenarios developed in different regions. At the same time, they have been based on local participatory processes, thus being locally credible and relevant to the needs of stakeholders. The local scenarios constitute a climate service per se as they can raise stakeholder awareness of the processes that will drive risk, exposure, and adaptive capacity in the future and inform discussions on mitigation strategies and adaptation pathways. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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17 pages, 3915 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Developing a New ANN Model to Estimate Daily Actual Evapotranspiration Using Limited Climatic Data and Remote Sensing Techniques for Sustainable Water Management

by Halil Karahan, Mahmut Cetin, Muge Erkan Can and Omar Alsenjar

Sustainability 2024, 16(6), 2481; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16062481 - 17 Mar 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1743

Abstract

Accurate estimations of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) are essential to various environmental issues. Artificial intelligence-based models are a promising alternative to the most common direct ETa estimation techniques and indirect methods by remote sensing (RS)-based surface energy balance models. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are [...] Read more.

Accurate estimations of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) are essential to various environmental issues. Artificial intelligence-based models are a promising alternative to the most common direct ETa estimation techniques and indirect methods by remote sensing (RS)-based surface energy balance models. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are proven to be suitable for predicting reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and ETa based on RS data. This study aims to develop a methodology based on ANNs for estimating daily ETa values using NDVI and land surface temperature, coupled with limited site-specific climatic variables in a large irrigation catchment. The ANN model has been applied to the two different scenarios. Data from only the 38 days of satellite overpass dates was selected in Scenario I, while in Scenario II all datasets, i.e., the 769-day data were used. An irrigation scheme, located in the Mediterranean region of Turkiye, was selected, and a total of 38 Landsat images and local climatic data collected in 2021 and 2022 were used in the ANN model. The ETa results by the ANN model for Scenarios I and II showed that the R² values for training (0.79 and 0.86), testing (0.75 and 0.81), and the entire dataset (0.76 and 0.84) were all remarkably high. Moreover, the results of the new ANN model in two scenarios showed an acceptable agreement with ETa-METRIC values. The proposed ANN model demonstrated the potential for obtaining daily ETa using limited climatic data and RS imagery. As a result, the suggested ANN model for daily ETa computation offers a trustworthy way to determine crop water usage in real time for sustainable water management in agriculture. It may also be used to assess how crop evapotranspiration in drought-prone areas will be affected by climate change in the 21st century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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19 pages, 2786 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Understanding Constraints and Enablers of Climate Risk Management Strategies: Evidence from Smallholder Dairy Farmers in Regional South India

by Anupama Shantharaju, Md Aminul Islam, Jarrod M. Kath, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Arun Muniyappa and Lila Singh-Peterson

Sustainability 2024, 16(5), 2018; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16052018 - 29 Feb 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1384

Abstract

The adoption of effective coping strategies is crucial for successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the dairy sector. However, little attention has been paid to understanding the perceived constraints and motivations toward such strategies. A survey was conducted among 104 [...] Read more.

The adoption of effective coping strategies is crucial for successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the dairy sector. However, little attention has been paid to understanding the perceived constraints and motivations toward such strategies. A survey was conducted among 104 dairy farmers from three semi-arid regions of South India. The aim of the survey was to explore the dairy farmers’ perception of climate risk, how it impacts their dairy farming system, the coping strategies they employ, and the barriers they face when implementing these strategies. The survey also investigated the factors that facilitate the adoption of adaptation measures. The results indicate dairy farmers in the region perceive drought, pests and diseases, and high temperatures as the major risks associated with climate change, which has resulted in decreased dairy income, animal health problems, reduced fertility, and food intake problems for their cattle. In response to climate variability, dairy farmers have adopted various coping strategies. The most important strategies include buying livestock insurance, keeping low debt obligations, and growing drought-tolerant grass varieties. However, most farmers face significant constraints in adopting these and other strategies including a lack of climate forecast data, the high cost of adaptation activities, and weak institutional support. On the other hand, the key enabling factors that support the adoption of these strategies include milk production security, suitable feed growing conditions, and family interest. Most importantly, the study found that certain factors such as age, education, number of earning family members, annual milk production, monthly cattle expenses, and landholdings significantly influenced dairy farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change. The study recommends that providing timely climate forecasts, implementing improved policies such as vaccination and cattle health services, and establishing strong institutional support systems can help dairy farmers become more resilient to climate change and protect their livelihoods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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13 pages, 1543 KiB

Open AccessSystematic Review

A Systematic Review of Agroecology Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change Impacts on Smallholder Crop Farmers’ Livelihoods in South Africa

by Mashford Zenda and Michael Rudolph

Climate 2024, 12(3), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12030033 - 27 Feb 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3713

Abstract

This systematic review identified the prevalence, effectiveness, and potential benefits of agroecology strategies in promoting sustainable agriculture practices implemented by smallholder crop farmers in South Africa. The review carried out a comprehensive literature search across various academic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Web [...] Read more.

This systematic review identified the prevalence, effectiveness, and potential benefits of agroecology strategies in promoting sustainable agriculture practices implemented by smallholder crop farmers in South Africa. The review carried out a comprehensive literature search across various academic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, and Web of science. The relevant studies were screened and selected based on predetermined inclusion criteria where a total of 262 articles were extracted and reduced to 30 articles for this systematic review. Data were extracted and synthesised to classify patterns and trends in the adoption of agroecology elements. The results obtained from the review of this study highlights the identification of specific strategies such as indigenous crop varieties, conservation agriculture, intercropping, agroforestry, drought-tolerant crop varieties, and water management strategies. These outcomes demonstrated insights into the prevalence of different strategies applied by smallholder crop farmers in South Africa. Furthermore, the review determined the reported benefits, such as increased crop resilience, improved soil fertility, and enhanced water use efficiency. These benefits were assessed on the available evidence from the selected studies. This review contributes to a better understanding of agroecology practices in South African. The results can inform policymakers, researchers, and farmers in developing appropriate strategies to enhance sustainable agricultural practices. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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29 pages, 6941 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analyzing Rainfall Trends Using Statistical Methods across Vaippar Basin, Tamil Nadu, India: A Comprehensive Study

by Manikandan Muthiah, Saravanan Sivarajan, Nagarajan Madasamy, Anandaraj Natarajan and Raviraj Ayyavoo

Sustainability 2024, 16(5), 1957; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16051957 - 27 Feb 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1089

Abstract

The Vaippar basin in southern India is economically important for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, mainly depending on the northeast monsoon (NEM) during October–December, and any changes in rainfall patterns directly affect crop ecosystems. This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal rainfall changes using the [...] Read more.

The Vaippar basin in southern India is economically important for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, mainly depending on the northeast monsoon (NEM) during October–December, and any changes in rainfall patterns directly affect crop ecosystems. This study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal rainfall changes using the monthly data from 13 scattered rain gauge stations in the Vaippar basin, India. They were converted into gridded rainfall data by creating 26 equally spaced grids with a spacing of 0.125° × 0.125° for the period between 1971 and 2019 through interpolation technique. Three methods, namely Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Mann–Kendell/modified Mann–Kendell (MK/MMK), and Sen’s Innovation trend analysis (ITA), were employed to detect trends and magnitudes for annual and seasonal gridded rainfall series. The results showed significant trends at 2.3%, 7.7%, and 44.6% of grid points using SLR, MK/MMK, and ITA methods, respectively. Notably, ITA analysis revealed significant trends in annual and NEM rainfall at 57.69% and 76.92% of the grid points, respectively, at a 5% significance level. The southwestern and central parts of the basin exhibited a higher number of significant upward trends in annual rainfall. Similarly for the NEM season, the south-eastern, central, and extreme southern parts experienced significant upward trend. The western part of the basin exhibited significantly upward trend with a slope value of 2.03 mm/year, while the central part showed non-significant downward trend with a slope value of −1.89 mm/year for the NEM series. This study used the advantage of ITA method, allowing for exploration of monotonic/non-monotonic trends, as well as subtrends of low, medium, and high rainfall segments within the series. The key findings of this study serve as a scientific report from a policy perspective, aiding in the preparation and management of extreme climate effects on land and water resources in the Vaipaar basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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27 pages, 8244 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Intra-Annual Cumulative Effects and Mechanisms of Climatic Factors on Global Vegetation Biomes’ Growth

by Guoming Du, Shouhong Yan, Hang Chen, Jian Yang and Youyue Wen

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(5), 779; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16050779 - 23 Feb 2024

Viewed by 913

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that climate change has significant cumulative effects on vegetation growth. However, there remains a gap in understanding the characteristics of cumulative climatic effects on different vegetation types and the underlying driving mechanisms. In this study, using the normalized difference [...] Read more.

Previous studies have shown that climate change has significant cumulative effects on vegetation growth. However, there remains a gap in understanding the characteristics of cumulative climatic effects on different vegetation types and the underlying driving mechanisms. In this study, using the normalized difference vegetation index data from 1982 to 2015, along with accumulated temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation data, we quantitatively investigated the intra-annual cumulative effects of climatic factors on global vegetation biomes across climatic zones. We also explored the underlying driving mechanisms. The results indicate that precipitation has a longer intra-annual cumulative effect on vegetation, with effects lasting up to 12 months for large percentages of most vegetation biomes. The cumulative effect of solar radiation is mostly concentrated within 0–6 months. Temperature has a shorter cumulative effect, with no significant cumulative effect of temperature on large percentages of tree-type vegetation. Compared to other vegetation types, evergreen broadleaf forests, close shrublands, open shrublands, savannas, and woody savannas exhibit more complex cumulative climatic effects. Each vegetation type shows a weak-to-moderate correlation with accumulated precipitation while exhibiting strong-to-extremely-strong positive correlations with accumulated temperature and accumulated solar radiation. The climate-induced regulations of water, heat, and nutrient, as well as the intrinsic mechanisms of vegetation’s tolerance, resistance, and adaptation to climate change, account for the significant heterogeneity of cumulative climatic effects across vegetation biomes in different climatic zones. This study contributes to enriching the theoretical understanding of the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change. It also offers crucial theoretical support for developing climate change adaptation strategies and improving future “vegetation-climate” models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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15 pages, 754 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Environmental Management of Ecuador’s Business Sector in the Fight against Climate Change

by Miguel Aizaga, Marcelo Ramírez, María Carmen Colmenárez Mujica and Renato M. Toasa

Sustainability 2024, 16(5), 1837; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16051837 - 23 Feb 2024

Viewed by 770

Abstract

The private sector is part of the United Nations Global Compact, which promotes the voluntary participation of organizations to implement environmental care strategies. The purpose of this article is to examine the performance of Ecuadorian companies in regard to environmental management, especially in [...] Read more.

The private sector is part of the United Nations Global Compact, which promotes the voluntary participation of organizations to implement environmental care strategies. The purpose of this article is to examine the performance of Ecuadorian companies in regard to environmental management, especially in the fight against climate change, considering the economic sectors (manufacturing, mining, commerce, construction and services). Figures from the National Institute of Statistics and the Census of Ecuador (2020) are used, including descriptive statistics and cross-tabulations with Cramer’s V index. The results show that approximately 5% of companies had the ISO 14001:2015 certification. In the seven actions against climate change considered, the proportion of companies that did not consider them to be current expenses predominated. Cramer’s V index, for associating the economic sector and the environmental spend, revealed that certain economic sectors (manufacturing and mining) are contributing significantly to environmental management spending in the areas of air, soil, wastewater and waste treatment, while no economic sector dominates the others in areas such as radiation treatment, the use of mineral or energy resources and water resources. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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20 pages, 12932 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Enhancing Maize Yield Simulations in Regional China Using Machine Learning and Multi-Data Resources

by Yangfeng Zou, Giri Raj Kattel and Lijuan Miao

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(4), 701; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16040701 - 16 Feb 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1130

Abstract

Improved agricultural production systems, together with increased grain yield, are essential to feed the growing global population in the 21st century. Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have been extensively used to assess crop production and yield simulation on a large geographical scale. However, [...] Read more.

Improved agricultural production systems, together with increased grain yield, are essential to feed the growing global population in the 21st century. Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have been extensively used to assess crop production and yield simulation on a large geographical scale. However, GGCMs are less effective when they are used on a finer scale, significantly limiting the precision in capturing the yearly maize yield. To address this issue, we propose a relatively more advanced approach that downsizes GGCMs by combining machine learning and crop modeling to enhance the accuracy of maize yield simulations on a regional scale. In this study, we combined the random forest algorithm with multiple data sources, trained the algorithm on low-resolution maize yield simulations from GGCMs, and applied it to a finer spatial resolution on a regional scale in China. We evaluated the performance of the eight GGCMs by utilizing a total of 1046 county-level maize yield data available over a 30-year period (1980–2010). Our findings reveal that the downscaled models created for maize yield simulations exhibited a remarkable level of accuracy (R² ≥ 0.9, MAE < 0.5 t/ha, RMSE < 0.75 t/ha). The original GGCMs performed poorly in simulating county-level maize yields in China, and the improved GGCMs in our study captured an additional 17% variability in the county-level maize yields in China. Additionally, by optimizing nitrogen management strategies, we identified an average maize yield gap at the county level in China ranging from 0.47 to 1.82 t/ha, with the south maize region exhibiting the highest yield gap. Our study demonstrates the high effectiveness of machine learning methods for the spatial downscaling of crop models, significantly improving GGCMs’ performance in county-level maize yield simulations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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18 pages, 3401 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Visualising the Relevance of Climate Change for Spatial Planning by the Example of Serbia

by Marijana Pantić, Tamara Maričić and Saša Milijić

Appl. Sci. 2024, 14(4), 1530; https://doi.org/10.3390/app14041530 - 14 Feb 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 837

Abstract

After decades of rising awareness and undertaken actions, climate change is still one of several focal global challenges. Additionally, the latest report by researchers at the International Panel for Climate Change indicates that the crisis has deepened. With its comprehensive nature, spatial planning [...] Read more.

After decades of rising awareness and undertaken actions, climate change is still one of several focal global challenges. Additionally, the latest report by researchers at the International Panel for Climate Change indicates that the crisis has deepened. With its comprehensive nature, spatial planning is one of the management tools responsible for dealing with climate change and combating its effects. Land use definition is the foundation on which we build mitigation and adaptation systems. It is a complex process that involves (or should involve) a range of stakeholders—experts, politicians, the civil sector, and citizens—in which the clear transmission of messages to stakeholders regarding the state of the art and planned actions is significant. The use of visualisation tools is one of the important ways to achieve this. This research aims to present a set of visualisation tools, applying them in analysis and decision making in the field of spatial planning with regard to climate change. We combined content analysis, colour-graded classification, and the spider method applied to the example of Serbia. The results showed that application of the suggested visualisation methods in combination with regular planning tools (maps) facilitates an understanding of the problem and its presentation to other stakeholders. In the case of Serbia, visualisation tools have shown that adaptation measures prevail over mitigation measures and that the effects of climate change addressed in spatial-planning documents do not significantly match the most challenging effects as perceived from the citizens’ perspective. These are aspects that should be corrected in the next generation of planning documents. The suggested visualisation tools are replicable, with slight adjustments to a specific case, to any other region in the world. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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12 pages, 265 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Addressing the Climate Change Adaptation Gap: Key Themes and Future Directions

by Ishfaq Hussain Malik and James D. Ford

Climate 2024, 12(2), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12020024 - 8 Feb 2024

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 6236

Abstract

Climate change adaptation is a critical response to the challenges posed by climate change and is important for building resilience. Progress in adaptation efforts has been made globally, nationally, and locally through international agreements, national plans, and community-based initiatives. However, significant gaps exist [...] Read more.

Climate change adaptation is a critical response to the challenges posed by climate change and is important for building resilience. Progress in adaptation efforts has been made globally, nationally, and locally through international agreements, national plans, and community-based initiatives. However, significant gaps exist in knowledge, capacity, and finance. The Adaptation Gap Report 2023, published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), examines the status of climate change adaptation efforts globally. The report highlights the widening adaptation finance gap and the deepening climate crisis. We analyse the key themes of the report and incorporate an analysis of the wider literature and insights from COP28 to substantiate key points and identify gaps where more work is needed to develop an understanding of climate change adaptation. This paper focuses on the underfinanced and underprepared state of global climate change adaptation efforts, the widening adaptation finance gap, slow progress in adaptation, gender equality and social inclusion issues, and challenges in addressing loss and damage. We provide a way forward for climate change adaptation and offer recommendations for future actions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

18 pages, 4216 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Variation Characteristics of Stratospheric Circulation under the Interdecadal Variability of Antarctic Total Column Ozone in Early Austral Spring

by Jiayao Li, Shunwu Zhou, Dong Guo, Dingzhu Hu, Yao Yao and Minghui Wu

Remote Sens. 2024, 16(4), 619; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16040619 - 7 Feb 2024

Viewed by 1193

Abstract

Antarctic Total Column Ozone (TCO) gradually began to recover around 2000, and a large number of studies have pointed out that the recovery of the Antarctic TCO is most significant in the austral early spring (September). Based on the Bodeker Scientific Filled Total [...] Read more.

Antarctic Total Column Ozone (TCO) gradually began to recover around 2000, and a large number of studies have pointed out that the recovery of the Antarctic TCO is most significant in the austral early spring (September). Based on the Bodeker Scientific Filled Total Column Ozone and ERA5 reanalysis dataset covering 1979–2019, the variation characteristics of the Antarctic TCO and stratospheric circulation for the TCO ‘depletion’ period (1979–1999) and the ‘recovery’ period (2000–2019) are analyzed in September. Results show that: (1) Stratospheric elements significantly related to the TCO have corresponding changes during the two eras. (2) The interannual variability of the TCO and the above-mentioned stratospheric circulation elements in the recovery period are stronger than those in the depletion period. (3) Compared with the depletion period, due to the stronger amplitude of the planetary wave 1, stronger Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux corresponds to EP flux convergence, larger negative eddy heat flux, and positive eddy momentum flux in the stratosphere during the recovery period. The polar temperature rises in the lower and middle stratosphere and the polar vortex weakens in the middle and upper stratosphere, accompanied by the diminished area of PSC. This contributes to the understanding of Antarctic ozone recovery. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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26 pages, 10782 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Adaptation of Tree Species in the Greater Khingan Range under Climate Change: Ecological Strategy Differences between Larix gmelinii and Quercus mongolica

by Bingyun Du, Zeqiang Wang, Xiangyou Li, Xi Zhang, Xuetong Wang and Dongyou Zhang

Forests 2024, 15(2), 283; https://doi.org/10.3390/f15020283 - 2 Feb 2024

Viewed by 1188

Abstract

Global warming significantly affects forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-to-high latitudes, altering tree growth, productivity, and spatial distribution. Additionally, spatial and temporal heterogeneity exists in the responses of different tree species to climate change. This research focuses on two key species in [...] Read more.

Global warming significantly affects forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere’s mid-to-high latitudes, altering tree growth, productivity, and spatial distribution. Additionally, spatial and temporal heterogeneity exists in the responses of different tree species to climate change. This research focuses on two key species in China’s Greater Khingan Range: Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen. (Pinaceae) and Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. (Fagaceae). We utilized a Maxent model optimized by the kuenm R package to predict the species’ potential habitats under various future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s) considering three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We analyzed 313 distribution records and 15 environmental variables and employed geospatial analysis to assess habitat requirements and migration strategies. The Maxent model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 0.921 for Quercus mongolica and 0.985 for Larix gmelinii. The high accuracy was achieved by adjusting the regularization multipliers and feature combinations. Key factors influencing the habitat of Larix gmelinii included the mean temperature of the coldest season (BIO11), mean temperature of the warmest season (BIO10), and precipitation of the driest quarter (BIO17). Conversely, Quercus mongolica’s habitat suitability was largely affected by annual mean temperature (BIO1), elevation, and annual precipitation (BIO12). These results indicate divergent adaptive responses to climate change. Quercus mongolica’s habitable area generally increased in all scenarios, especially under SSP5-8.5, whereas Larix gmelinii experienced more complex habitat changes. Both species’ distribution centroids are expected to shift northwestward. Our study provides insights into the divergent responses of coniferous and broadleaf species in the Greater Khingan Range to climate change, contributing scientific information vital to conserving and managing the area’s forest ecosystems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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22 pages, 3277 KiB

Open AccessReview

Net Zero Dairy Farming—Advancing Climate Goals with Big Data and Artificial Intelligence

by Suresh Neethirajan

Climate 2024, 12(2), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12020015 - 25 Jan 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 4415

Abstract

This paper explores the transformative potential of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in propelling the dairy industry toward net zero emissions, a critical objective in the global fight against climate change. Employing the Canadian dairy sector as a case study, the study [...] Read more.

This paper explores the transformative potential of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in propelling the dairy industry toward net zero emissions, a critical objective in the global fight against climate change. Employing the Canadian dairy sector as a case study, the study extrapolates its findings to demonstrate the global applicability of these technologies in enhancing environmental sustainability across the agricultural spectrum. We begin by delineating the environmental challenges confronting the dairy industry worldwide, with an emphasis on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including methane from enteric fermentation and nitrous oxide from manure management. The pressing need for innovative approaches in light of the accelerating climate crisis forms the crux of our argument. Our analysis delves into the role of Big Data and AI in revolutionizing emission management in dairy farming. This includes applications in optimizing feed efficiency, refining manure management, and improving energy utilization. Technological solutions such as predictive analytics for feed optimization, AI in herd health management, and sensor networks for real-time monitoring are thoroughly examined. Crucially, the paper addresses the wider implications of integrating these technologies in dairy farming. We discuss the development of benchmarking standards for emissions, the importance of data privacy, and the essential role of policy in promoting sustainable practices. These aspects are vital in supporting the adoption of technology, ensuring ethical use, and aligning with international climate commitments. Concluding, our comprehensive study not only suggests a pathway for the dairy industry towards environmental sustainability but also provides insights into the role of digital technologies in broader agricultural practices, aligning with global environmental sustainability efforts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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22 pages, 2926 KiB

Open AccessReview

Meta-Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment Studies for Polyethylene Terephthalate Water Bottle System

by Yoo-Jin Go, Dong-Ho Kang, Hyun-Jin Park, Jun-Hyuk Lee and Jin-Kie Shim

Sustainability 2024, 16(2), 535; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16020535 - 8 Jan 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2792

Abstract

The life cycle assessment (LCA) serves as a crucial tool for assessing the environmental impact of products, with recent emphasis on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles. Our meta-analytical review of 14 LCA research papers (2010–2022) on PET bottles, aligned with PRISMA guidelines, spans six [...] Read more.

The life cycle assessment (LCA) serves as a crucial tool for assessing the environmental impact of products, with recent emphasis on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles. Our meta-analytical review of 14 LCA research papers (2010–2022) on PET bottles, aligned with PRISMA guidelines, spans six phases: raw material production (MP), bottle production (BP), distribution and transportation (DT), collection and transport (CT), waste management (WM), and environmental benefits (EB). Utilizing the global warming potential (GWP) as the indicator, our study harmonized data into a consistent functional unit, revealing an average emission of 5.1 kg CO₂ equivalent per 1 kg of PET bottles. Major contributors to global warming were identified across the MP, BP, and DT phases. While the MP and BP phases exhibited low variability due to uniform processes, the CT, WM, and EB phases displayed higher variability due to scenario considerations. A comparison with Korean environmental product declaration data affirmed the methodology’s practical utility. Our approach offers potential applicability in diverse product category assessments, emphasizing its relevance for informed decision-making in sustainable product development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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22 pages, 5698 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Estimation of the Short-Term Impact of Climate-Change-Related Factors on Wood Supply in Poland in 2023–2025

by Jan Kotlarz and Sylwester Bejger

Forests 2024, 15(1), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/f15010108 - 5 Jan 2024

Viewed by 1249

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed in situ data from the years 2018–2022 encompassing entire forest plantations in Poland. Based on data regarding stand density and the occurrence of fungal, water-related, climate-related, fire, and insect factors that may intensify with climate changes, we determined [...] Read more.

In this study, we analyzed in situ data from the years 2018–2022 encompassing entire forest plantations in Poland. Based on data regarding stand density and the occurrence of fungal, water-related, climate-related, fire, and insect factors that may intensify with climate changes, we determined the correlation between their occurrence and the decline in wood increments for six tree species: pine, birch, oak, spruce, beech, and alder. Subsequently, we identified age intervals in which the species–factor interaction exhibited statistically significant effects. Next, we developed neural network models for short-term wood increment predictions. Utilizing these models, we estimated a reduction in wood supply harvested in accordance with the plans for the years 2023–2025 assuming a tenfold greater intensity of factors than in 2022. Findings indicate: birch: water-related factors may reduce wood production by 0.1%–0.2%. This aligns with previous research linking drought to birch wood decline, highlighting its sensitivity to water-related issues. Oak: fungal and insect factors could decrease wood production by up to 0.1%. Prior studies emphasize the significant influence of fungal diseases on oak health and regeneration, as well as the impact of insect infestation on wood production. Alder: water-related factors may lead to a slight reduction in wood production, approximately 0.02%. The impact is significant within specific age ranges, indicating potential effects on harvesting. Pine: water- and climate-related factors may result in up to a 0.05% reduction in wood production. Pine, a key forest-forming species in Poland, is notably sensitive to these factors, especially as it nears harvesting age. Spruce: insects, fungi, and climate-related factors could lead to a reduction in wood production of up to 0.2%–0.3%. Analyses demonstrate sensitivity, resulting in a noticeable growth differential compared to the typical rate. Short-term predictions based on neural networks were developed, acknowledging their suitability for short-term forecasts due to uncertainties regarding long-term factor impacts. Additionally, our study discussed modeling wood increments in divisions well below the harvesting time, emphasizing that the influence of current and 2023–2025 factors on wood increments and supply may only manifest several decades from now. These results imply important indications for the economic and financial performance of the wood industry. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)

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