GeoHazards

On 10 August 2025, a powerful earthquake (M_w = 6.1) occurred in Balıkesir, located within the Aegean Graben System, one of Türkiye’s major tectonic elements, and was felt across a very wide region. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the seismotectonic characteristics, recorded ground motions, and observed structural performance during this earthquake, focusing specifically on implications for regional seismic hazard assessment. Peak ground acceleration values obtained from local accelerometer stations were compared with predicted peak ground accelerations. The study also conducted comparisons for Balıkesir districts using the two most recent earthquake hazard maps used in Türkiye. Comparative hazard analyses revealed whether existing seismic hazard maps adequately represent Balıkesir. The findings highlight the need for region-specific hazard model updates, improved implementation of earthquake-resistant design rules, and targeted retrofit strategies to mitigate future earthquake risk. The methodology adopted in this study involved comparative hazard analysis using the last two seismic hazard maps, evaluation of PGA’s across 20 districts of Balıkesir Province, and a field-based survey of structural damage. This integrative approach ensured that both seismological and engineering perspectives were comprehensively addressed. Full article

Nepal is highly susceptible to natural hazards, including earthquakes, flooding, and landslides, all of which may occur independently or in combination. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of these natural hazards, posing growing risks to Nepal’s infrastructure and development. To the authors’ knowledge, the majority of existing geohazard research in Nepal is typically limited to single hazards or localised areas. To address this gap, MiMapper was developed as a cloud-based, open-access multi-hazard mapping tool covering the full national extent. Built on Google Earth Engine and using only open-source spatial datasets, MiMapper applies an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to generate hazard indices for earthquakes, floods, and landslides. These indices are combined into an aggregated hazard layer and presented in an interactive, user-friendly web map that requires no prior GIS expertise. MiMapper uses a standardised hazard categorisation system for all layers, providing pixel-based scores for each layer between 0 (Very Low) and 1 (Very High). The modal and mean hazard categories for aggregated hazard in Nepal were Low (47.66% of pixels) and Medium (45.61% of pixels), respectively, but there was high spatial variability in hazard categories depending on hazard type. The validation of MiMapper’s flooding and landslide layers showed an accuracy of 0.412 and 0.668, sensitivity of 0.637 and 0.898, and precision of 0.116 and 0.627, respectively. These validation results show strong overall performance for landslide prediction, whilst broad-scale exposure patterns are predicted for flooding but may lack the resolution or sensitivity to fully represent real-world flood events. Consequently, MiMapper is a useful tool to support initial hazard screening by professionals in urban planning, infrastructure development, disaster management, and research. It can contribute to a Level 1 Integrated Geohazard Assessment as part of the evaluation for improving the resilience of hydropower schemes to the impacts of climate change. MiMapper also offers potential as a teaching tool for exploring hazard processes in data-limited, high-relief environments such as Nepal. Full article

Landslides are common in mountainous regions and can significantly affect human life and infrastructure. The aim of this study is to analyze the role of hydrothermally altered rocks in generating ground instability and triggering debris flows in the Canoas microbasin, Sierra de Angangueo, within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. We characterized the unaltered (andesite) and altered (andesitic breccia) rocks from the landslide scarp through fieldwork and laboratory analysis. The altered rock exhibited an extremely low simple compressive strength of 0.47 ± 0.05 MPa. In contrast, the unaltered rock exhibited a higher strength of 36.26 ± 18.62 MPa and lower porosity. Petrographic analysis revealed that the unaltered rock primarily consists of an andesitic groundmass with plagioclase and orthopyroxene phenocrysts partially altered to sericite and kaolin. In comparison, the altered rock contains a matrix rich in clay, iron oxides, and completely replaced phenocrysts. The andesitic breccia has a high proportion of clay and silt and displays soil-like mechanical properties, making it vulnerable to saturation collapse during heavy rainfall. This research offers valuable insights into geological risk management in mountainous volcanic regions. The findings demonstrate that the presence of hydrothermally altered andesitic breccia with weak geomechanical properties was the critical factor that triggered the Canoas debris flow, underscoring hydrothermal alteration as a key control of slope instability in volcanic settings. Full article

Approaches to magnetotelluric monitoring of variations in apparent resistivity and electromagnetic emission that may serve as earthquake precursors are considered. Monitoring of apparent resistivity is advised in the range 7–300 Hz, where natural electromagnetic fields exhibit stable behavior, while at lower frequencies the behavior of the electrotelluric and magnetic fields should be analyzed. We present results of studies aimed at identifying active faults and searching for stress–strain sensitive zones for installing measurement equipment based on the registration of tidal variations in apparent resistivity. The features of apparent resistivity anomalies preceding earthquakes in China based on direct current measurements are discussed. Based on the analysis of natural electromagnetic field monitoring in the ULF and ELF ranges in China, the anomalies recorded prior to several recent earthquakes are considered. Before the Yangbi earthquake (2017) and the series of Yangbi (2021) and Ninglang (2022) earthquakes, variations in apparent resistivity were observed that have a pulsed behavior and probably are manifestations of electromagnetic emission. Possible sources of these anomalies are active faults located near the monitoring stations. Full article

Global environmental challenges, including eutrophication and hypoxia in enclosed water bodies, require innovative solutions for sustainable water quality management. Lake Biwa, Japan’s largest freshwater lake, suffers from hypoxia in its bottom layers due to strong summer stratification that inhibits vertical mixing. To address this issue, the present study employed a three-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecosystem model to numerically evaluate the effectiveness of training walls (guiding dikes) at river mouths in enhancing vertical mixing and improving bottom-layer oxygenation. Simulations revealed that the installation of guiding dikes significantly altered horizontal advection and promoted vertical mixing, particularly during winter, when weakened stratification allowed snowmelt inflows to sink along the dikes. As a result, local increases in dissolved oxygen concentrations of up to 0.4 mg/L were observed in the bottom layer. These findings demonstrate that guiding dikes can effectively improve oxygen supply to hypoxic zones, especially during periods of low stratification, providing a promising strategy for lake management in temperate regions experiencing seasonal snowmelt. Full article

The Niland Moving Mud Spring, located near the southeastern margin of the Salton Sea, represents a rare and evolving geotechnical hazard. Unlike the typically stationary mud pots of the Salton Trough, this spring is a CO₂-driven mud spring that has migrated southwestward since 2016, at times exceeding 3 m per month, posing threats to critical infrastructure including rail lines, highways, and pipelines. Emergency mitigation efforts initiated in 2018, including decompression wells, containment berms, and route realignments, have since slowed and recently almost halted its movement and growth. This study integrates hydrochemical, temperature, stable isotope, and tritium data to propose a refined conceptual model of the Moving Mud Spring’s origin and migration. Temperature data from the Moving Mud Spring (26.5 °C to 28.3 °C) and elevated but non-geothermal total dissolved solids (~18,000 mg/L) suggest a shallow, thermally buffered groundwater source influenced by interaction with saline lacustrine sediments. Stable water isotope data follow an evaporative trajectory consistent with imported Colorado River water, while tritium concentrations (~5 TU) confirm a modern recharge source. These findings rule out deep geothermal or residual floodwater origins from the great “1906 flood”, and instead implicate more recent irrigation seepage or canal leakage as the primary water source. A key external forcing may be the 4.1 m drop in Salton Sea water level between 2003 and 2025, which has modified regional groundwater hydraulic head gradients. This recession likely enhanced lateral groundwater flow from the Moving Mud Spring area, potentially facilitating the migration of upwelling geothermal gases and contributing to spring movement. No faults or structural features reportedly align with the spring’s trajectory, and most major fault systems trend perpendicular to its movement. The hydrologically driven model proposed in this paper, linked to Salton Sea water level decline and correlated with the direction, rate, and timing of the spring’s migration, offers a new empirical explanation for the observed movement of the Niland Moving Mud Spring. Full article

This study evaluates landslide susceptibility in Hanang District, Manyara Region, Tanzania, using three approaches: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Frequency Ratio (FR), and Landslide Susceptibility Index. A total of 11 environmental and anthropogenic factors were analyzed, with 5879 landslide events identified from satellite imagery to create an inventory map for training and testing. Model performance was assessed using Area Under the Curve (AUC), Consistency Ratio, and Prediction Rate, while multicollinearity among factors was evaluated through Tolerance (TOL) and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Results indicate that the Analytic Hierarchy Process model outperformed Frequency Ratio and Landslide Susceptibility Index, achieving an Area Under the Curve of 0.88, demonstrating strong predictive capability. Slope, elevation, and geology were identified as the most influential factors. The susceptibility maps developed in this study aim to support policymakers and disaster management authorities in climate adaptation and risk reduction efforts, contributing to Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). Limitations include reliance on remotely sensed data for landslide inventory, which may omit smaller events or introduce classification errors. Full article

The Central Mindoro Fault (CMF) is a major active oblique, sinistral strike-slip fault within the Philippine archipelago that accommodates the oblique convergence between the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) and the Sunda Plate (SP). This study focused on assessing the spatial distribution of relative uplift rates along the CMF by calculating multiple geomorphic indices (elongation ratio, volume-to-area-ratio, valley floor width-to-height ratio, hypsometric integral, and normalized steepness index) and interpreting these values in the context of any along-strike variations in geology and climate, as well as the context of the CMF’s kinematics. We observed 2 characteristics of spatial distributions of relative uplift rates: (1) at least 20–30 km-long high uplift rate sections in the northwestern end of the CMF-bound mountain range (CMF segment I), and (2) at most, CMF-wide moderate to high uplift rates. This trend matches the geomorphic-based cumulative fault offset measurements distribution, possibly indicating consistent kinematics and an overall nearly-uniform stress-field since at least the Pleistocene. Based on the spatial distribution of areas with high relative uplift rates highlighted by this study, future efforts to assess the CMF’s seismogenic capability should focus on segments I and III. Full article

Dynamic effects such as wind, traffic, and earthquakes can cause loss of life and property. Since tall buildings are more sensitive to these vibrations, vibration control is an important issue in civil engineering. In this study, the Adaptive Harmony Search (AHS) was used to determine the optimum TMDI parameters. AHS shares similar steps with the classic Harmony Search (HS), which simulates the process of musicians creating new harmonies. However, unlike HS, it uses harmony memory consideration rate (HMCR) and pitch adjustment rate (PAR) values that are updated at each search step, rather than fixed HMCR and PAR values. The aim of the optimization is to minimize the maximum displacement of the upper floor in a 10-story shear building against different earthquake records. To evaluate the performance of the TMDI system, displacement and total acceleration under seismic loading were analyzed. As a result, the TMDI reduced displacement by 35% and 13.33% for non-pulse and pulse, respectively, for near-fault earthquake records. These reductions indicate that the structure’s resistance to dynamic loads can be enhanced using control systems. Full article

Creep through mainly vertical displacement along en echelon ground ruptures within the creeping segment of the West Valley Fault (WVF) in the Luzon Island, Philippines, has been occurring since first documented in the 90s. It is believed to have been triggered by excessive groundwater withdrawal, mainly because of the high rates of slip recorded in the 90s. Near-field displacements measured by locally fabricated linear variable differential transformer (LVDT) and ultrasonic creepmeters are compared with near-field long-term displacements as measured by precise leveling surveys. Though the ultrasonic creepmeter is less accurate in measuring short-term displacement than the LVDT creepmeter, both are reliable in measuring longer-term displacements. Data from creepmeters can reveal association of displacement with seasonal precipitation and correlation between short-term displacement and episodic rainfall. In the case of the WVF’s creeping segment, rainfall episodes and wet seasons do not always result in immediate abrupt displacement changes. Nevertheless, the results of our monitoring with creepmeters underscores the contribution of precipitation in triggering creep, through its effect on the ground and by releasing stored tectonic strain, in the southern region of the WVF’s creeping zone where groundwater withdrawal remains largely unregulated. Continuous monitoring and periodic leveling surveys should continue as creep continues to cause damage and the potential for induced seismicity remains. Full article

The impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures and severe droughts, have intensified wildfires globally, with increased frequency, severity, and extent. Forests reduce the occurrence of rockfalls and increase their intensity since the slope’s vegetation constrains the trajectory. Consequently, the destruction of vegetation following a wildfire may potentially cause higher and more intense rockfall activity. In this paper, we first evaluate the effects of forest destruction on a local scale by studying a specific site impacted by the 2023 Evros Wildfire, aiming to identify the key factors. Next, we modify existing rockfall hazard rating systems to incorporate these key factors in a user-friendly way. Finally, we apply this system on a regional scale to the area affected by the 2023 Evros Wildfire. The modified system produced results indicating a significant increase in exposure and risk following the wildfire. This information helps to identify vulnerable sites and prioritize them systematically, facilitating informed decision-making regarding restoration strategies. Full article

The failure of large gravity dams during an earthquake could lead to calamitous flooding, severe infrastructural damage, and massive environmental destruction. This paper aims to demonstrate reliable methods for evaluating dam performance after a seismic event. The work included a seismic hazard analysis and nonlinear finite element modelling of concrete cracking for two large dams (D1 and D2, of 35 and 90 m in height, respectively) in Eastern Canada. Dam D1 is located in Montreal, and Dam D2 is located in La Malbaie, Quebec. The modelling approach was validated using the Koyna Dam, which was subjected to the 1967 Mw 6.5 earthquake. This paper reports tensile cracks of D1 and D2 under combined hydrostatic and seismic loading. The latter was generated from ground motion records from 11 sites during the 1988 Mw 5.9 Saguenay earthquake. These records were each scaled to two times the design level. It is shown that D1 remained stable, with minor localised cracking, whereas D2 experienced widespread tensile damage, particularly at the crest and base under high-energy and transverse inputs. These findings highlight the influence of dam geometry and frequency characteristics on seismic performance. The analysis and modelling procedures reported can be adopted for seismic risk classification and safety compliance verification of other dams and for recommendations such as monitoring and upgrading. Full article

The Tokara Islands, a volcanic archipelago located south of Japan’s main islands, experienced earthquake swarm activity in 2025. Public concern has emerged regarding the potential triggering of the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake, which the Japan Meteorological Agency has dismissed; however, the underlying mechanisms of this seismic activity remain inadequately explained. This study employs Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to characterise the statistical properties of the swarm and compare them with historical patterns. Earthquake intervals followed exponential distributions, but swarm events exhibited distinctive short intervals that clearly distinguished them from background seismicity. Similarly, whilst earthquake magnitudes conformed to normal distributions, swarm events demonstrated low mean values and reduced variability, characteristics markedly different from regional background activity. The frequency and magnitude distributions of the 2025 swarm demonstrate remarkable similarity to two previous swarms that occurred in 2021. All the episodes coincided with volcanic activity at Suwanose Island, located approximately 10 km from the epicentral region, suggesting a causal relationship between magmatic processes and seismic activity. Statistical analysis reveals that the earthquake swarm exhibits exceptionally low magnitude scale, characteristics consistent with magma-driven seismicity rather than tectonic stress accumulation. The parameter contrasted markedly with pre-seismic conditions observed before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, where it was substantially elevated. Our findings indicate that the current seismic activity represents localised volcanic-related processes rather than precursory behaviour associated with major tectonic earthquakes. These results demonstrate the utility of statistical seismology in distinguishing between volcanic and tectonic seismic processes for hazard assessment purposes. Full article

Both studies and conservation of mountain waters are essential because of the primary role of mountains as “natural water towers” for the preservation and optimized exploitation of water reserves. In particular, under climate change stresses which induce reductions in rain and snow precipitation, especially in areas with rain-snow transition zones, increasing knowledge of the geological setting and hydrogeological context of mountain springs is pivotal for their preservation and optimized exploitation. However, the complexity and remoteness of mountain waters make them difficult to conceptualize and analyse, both observationally and instrumentally. In this context, using detailed geological mapping and hydrogeological surveys, geophysical data can provide useful information on the subsurface setting. Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys are utilized in this work for the investigation of the Montellina Spring (MS), which is located in the low Dora Baltea Valley and represents a significant drinking water source in the alpine context. Geophysical surveys, complemented by specific geological and hydrogeological observations, allowed a detailed reconstruction of the water circuit that supplies the spring along an articulated buried glacial valley and a loose bedrock in a DSGSD (deep-seated gravitational slope deformation) environment. The methodological approach also provides the basis for its successful application in similar geological contexts. Full article

Tunnel linings play a vital role in underground infrastructure, yet their performance can be severely affected by pre-existing cracks. This study investigates the mechanical behavior and failure mechanisms of C30 concrete with artificial cracks under uniaxial compression, simulating various crack conditions observed in tunnel linings. Specimens were designed with varying crack lengths and orientations. Acoustic emission (AE) monitoring was employed to capture the evolution of internal damage and micro-cracking activity during loading. Fractal dimension analysis was performed on post-test crack patterns to quantitatively evaluate the complexity and branching characteristics of crack propagation. The AE results showed clear correlations between amplitude characteristics and macroscopic crack growth, while fractal analysis provided an effective metric for assessing the extent of damage. To complement the experiments, discrete element modeling (DEM) using PFC3D was applied to simulate crack initiation and propagation, with results compared against experimental data for validation. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of DEM in modeling cracked concrete and highlights the critical role of crack orientation and size in strength degradation. These findings provide a theoretical and numerical foundation for assessing tunnel lining defects and support the development of preventive and reinforcement strategies in tunnel engineering. Full article

Geohazard investigation in volcanic fields is essential for understanding and mitigating risks associated with volcanic activity. Volcanic vents are often concealed by processes such as faulting, subsidence, or uplift, which complicates their detection and hampers hazard assessment. To address this challenge, we developed a predictive framework that integrates high-resolution gravity data with multiple machine learning algorithms. Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest models were applied to analyze the gravitational characteristics of known volcanic vents and predict the likelihood of undiscovered vents at other locations. The problem was formulated as a binary classification task, and model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). The Random Forest algorithm yielded optimal outcomes: 95% classification accuracy, AUC-ROC score of 0.99, 75% geographic correspondence between real and modeled vent sites, and a 95% certainty degree. Spatial density analysis showed that the distribution patterns of predicted and actual vents are highly similar, underscoring the model’s reliability in identifying vent-prone areas. The proposed method offers a valuable tool for geoscientists and disaster management authorities to improve volcanic hazard evaluation and implement effective mitigation strategies. These results represent a significant step forward in our ability to model volcanic dynamics and enhance predictive capabilities for volcanic hazard assessment. Full article

Landslide susceptibility assessment constitutes a pivotal method of preventing and reducing losses caused by geological disasters. However, traditional models are often influenced by subjective grading factors, which can result in unscientific and inaccurate assessment outcomes. In this study, we thoroughly analyze various landslide causative factors, including geological, topographical, hydrological, and environmental components. A quantitative continuous model was employed, with methods such as frequency ratio (FR), cosine amplitude (CA), information value (IV), and certainty factor (CF) being applied in order to assess the landslide susceptibility of the Wanzhou coastline in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The results were then compared with methods such as Bias-Standardised Information Value (BSIV), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosted Decision Tree (GBDT). This process led to the following key conclusions: (1) Most landslide susceptibility zones are predominantly banded and clustered on both sides of the Dewuidu River, particularly along the left bank of the Yangtze River from Dewuidu Town to Wanzhou City, as well as in the main urban area of Wanzhou. Clusters of the Yangtze River mainstem and surrounding towns characterize these areas. (2) The enhanced statistical analysis model shows a notable increase in sensitivity to landslides, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.8878 for the IV model—an improvement of 0.0639 over the traditional BSIV model. This enhancement aligns closely with machine learning capabilities, and the spatial results obtained are more continuous. (3) By substituting manual grading with a quantitative continuous model, we achieve a balance between interpretability and computational efficiency. These findings lay a scientific foundation for the prevention and management of geological disasters in Wanzhou and provide valuable insights for comparable regions undertaking landslide susceptibility assessments. Full article

The analysis of earthquake source mechanisms is key for seismotectonic studies, but it is often limited to traditional methods plagued with issues of precision and automation. This is particularly true in low-seismicity areas with deep and/or hidden seismogenic sources, where the identification of precise source mechanisms is a difficult and non-trivial task. In this study, we present a detailed application of TESLA (Tool for automatic Earthquake low-frequency Spectral Level estimAtion), a novel tool designed to overcome these limitations. We demonstrated TESLA’s effectiveness in defining source mechanism analysis by applying it to seismic sequences that occurred near Asti (AT), in the Monferrato area (Southern Piedmont, Italy). Our analysis reveals that the observed clusters consist of two distinct seismic sequences, occurring in 1991 and 2012, which were activated by the same seismogenic source. We relocated a total of 36 events with magnitudes ranging from 1.1 to 3.7, using a 3D velocity model, and computed 12 well-constrained focal mechanism solutions using the first motion polarities and the low-frequency spectral level ratios. The results highlight a relatively small seismogenic source located at approximately 5 km north of Asti (AT), at a depth of between 10 and 25 km, trending SW–NE with strike-slip kinematics. A smaller cluster of three events shows an activation of a different fault segment at around 60 km of depth, also showing strike-slip kinematics. These findings are in good agreement with the regional stress field acting in the Monferrato area and support the use of investigation tools such as TESLA for microseismicity analysis. Full article

Seismo-stratigraphic data of the Gulf of Pozzuoli have been revised with the aim of identifying the tectonic structures controlling the area in more detail and to highlight the possible relationships of the morpho-structures with the new bradyseismic crisis, still in course. In particular, the relationships between the tectonic structures, consisting of both normal faults and folds, and the possible rising of fluids have been analyzed based on seismic interpretation. We hypothesize that the normal faults occurring in this area have possibly controlled the rising of fluids in these extensional structures. The fluid uprising could possibly be related to the increasing gas activity of the Solfatara–Pisciarelli area onshore during the active bradyseismic crisis (2024–2025). The proposed mechanism is controlled by the occurrence of a heat source, possibly a magmatic reservoir, in the continental crust and/or the mantle, genetically related to the presence of submerged hydrothermal discharges in the coastal areas of the Campania region. To achieve this objective, detailed seismo-stratigraphic sections of the Gulf of Pozzuoli have been constructed, focusing on the areas characterized by tectonic activity. Fluid uprising is mainly controlled by the tectonic setting of the Gulf of Pozzuoli, characterized by anticlines and synclines, representing important structural and stratigraphic traps. Full article