Modeling Virus Dynamics and Evolution

There are many studies that model the within-host population dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) infection. However, the within-infected-cell replication of HIV-1 remains to be not comprehensively addressed. There exist rather few quantitative models describing the regulation of the HIV-1 life cycle at the intracellular level. In treatment of HIV-1 infection, there remain issues related to side-effects and drug-resistance that require further search “...for new and better drugs, ideally targeting multiple independent steps in the HIV-1 replication cycle” (as highlighted recently by Tedbury & Freed, The Future of HIV-1 Therapeutics, 2015). High-resolution mathematical models of HIV-1 growth in infected cells provide an additional analytical tool in identifying novel drug targets. We formulate a high-dimensional model describing the biochemical reactions underlying the replication of HIV-1 in target cells. The model considers a nonlinear regulation of the transcription of HIV-1 mediated by Tat and the Rev-dependent transport of fully spliced and singly spliced transcripts from the nucleus to the cytoplasm. The model is calibrated using available information on the kinetics of various stages of HIV-1 replication. The sensitivity analysis of the model is performed to rank the biochemical processes of HIV-1 replication with respect to their impact on the net production of virions by one actively infected cell. The ranking of the sensitivity factors provides a quantitative basis for identifying novel targets for antiviral therapy. Our analysis suggests that HIV-1 assembly depending on Gag and Tat-Rev regulation of transcription and mRNA distribution present two most critical stages in HIV-1 replication that can be targeted to effectively control virus production. These processes are not covered by current antiretroviral treatments. Full article

Amdoparvovirus and Protoparvovirus are monophyletic viral genera that infect carnivores. We performed surveillance for and sequence analyses of parvoviruses in mustelids in insular British Columbia to investigate parvoviral maintenance and cross-species transmission among wildlife. Overall, 19.1% (49/256) of the tested animals were parvovirus-positive. Aleutian mink disease virus (AMDV) was more prevalent in mink (41.6%, 32/77) than martens (3.1%, 4/130), feline panleukopenia virus (FPV) was more prevalent in otters (27.3%, 6/22) than mink (5.2%, 4/77) or martens (2.3%, 3/130), and canine parvovirus 2 (CPV-2) was found in one mink, one otter, and zero ermines (N = 27). Viruses were endemic and bottleneck events, founder effects, and genetic drift generated regional lineages. We identified two local closely related AMDV lineages, one CPV-2 lineage, and five FPV lineages. Highly similar viruses were identified in different hosts, demonstrating cross-species transmission. The likelihood for cross-species transmission differed among viruses and some species likely represented dead-end spillover hosts. We suggest that there are principal maintenance hosts (otters for FPV, raccoons for CPV-2/FPV, mink for AMDV) that enable viral persistence and serve as sources for other susceptible species. In this multi-host system, viral and host factors affect viral persistence and distribution, shaping parvoviral ecology and evolution, with implications for insular carnivore conservation. Full article

Viruses evolve in the background of host immune systems that exert selective pressure and drive viral evolutionary trajectories. This interaction leads to different evolutionary patterns in antigenic space. Examples observed in nature include the effectively one-dimensional escape characteristic of influenza A and the prolonged coexistence of lineages in influenza B. Here, we use an evolutionary model for viruses in the presence of immune host systems with finite memory to obtain a phase diagram of evolutionary patterns in a two-dimensional antigenic space. We find that, for small effective mutation rates and mutation jump ranges, a single lineage is the only stable solution. Large effective mutation rates combined with large mutational jumps in antigenic space lead to multiple stably co-existing lineages over prolonged evolutionary periods. These results combined with observations from data constrain the parameter regimes for the adaptation of viruses, including influenza. Full article

The rate of change in selective pressures is one of the main factors that determines the likelihood that populations can adapt to stress conditions. Generally, the reduction in the population size that accompanies abrupt environmental changes makes it difficult to generate and select adaptive mutations. However, in systems with high genetic diversity, as happens in RNA viruses, mutations with beneficial effects under new conditions can already be present in the population, facilitating adaptation. In this work, we have propagated an RNA bacteriophage (Qβ) at temperatures higher than the optimum, following different patterns of change. We have determined the fitness values and the consensus sequences of all lineages throughout the evolutionary process in order to establish correspondences between fitness variations and adaptive pathways. Our results show that populations subjected to a sudden temperature change gain fitness and fix mutations faster than those subjected to gradual changes, differing also in the particular selected mutations. The life-history of populations prior to the environmental change has great importance in the dynamics of adaptation. The conclusion is that in the bacteriophage Qβ, the standing genetic diversity together with the rate of temperature change determine both the rapidity of adaptation and the followed evolutionary pathways. Full article