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Building Smart and Sustainable Cities: Emerging Technologies and Innovation for Digital-Era Governance and Long-Term Impacts

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Sustainable Urban and Rural Development".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 January 2022) | Viewed by 55628

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Center for Technology in Government and Rockefeller College of Public Affaris and Policy, University at Albany, State University of New York & Universidad de las Americas Puebla, Albany, NY 12203, USA
Interests: collaborative digital government; inter-organizational information integration; smart cities and smart governments; adoption and implementation of emergent technologies; digital divide policies; multimethod research approaches
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Guest Editor
Center for Technology in Government and Rockefeller College of Public Affaris and Policy, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12203, USA
Interests: digital government; open government; smart cities and communities; public and open innovation; adoption and use of technology; qualitative research methods

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Rockefeller College of Public Affaris and Policy, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12203, USA
Interests: digital government; comparative public administration; quantitative methods

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Although cities around the world are already implementing an array of initiatives in an attempt to become smarter, there is still no consensus among researchers and practitioners about what should be included or not in the conceptualization of “smartness” (Gil-Garcia, Zhang and Puron-Cid, 2016). Similar to other topics related to digital governance, some definitions draw attention to the technological elements, while others to the development of human capital, environmental sustainability, or physical infrastructure, among other aspects (Gil-Garcia, Pardo, and Nam, 2015). However, it seems to be clear now that smart cities are not only about harnessing the potential of new data and emergent information technologies, but that many other components are essential to achieve some of the promises in terms of better services and improved quality of life (Gasco-Hernandez and Gil-Garcia, 2017; Gil-Garcia, Helbig and Ojo, 2014). One of these important components of smart cities is sustainability as it is broadly understood (Gasco-Hernandez, 2009; Webster and Leleux, 2019; Encalada at al., 2017; Errichiello and Micera, 2018).

We argue that no matter what definition scholars and practitioners use, what seems to be clear is that smart city success should involve being sustainable in the medium and long term. Sustainability could be understood as the results’ duration and persistence over time. In this respect, sustainability could be seen as the ultimate test of a smart city strategy’s success, since it evaluates if its positive outcomes will last through time, no matter the technical or environmental changes that may take place (Gasco-Hernandez, 2009). The infrastructure and technology must be maintained and updated, but more importantly, the benefits of smart cities should persist over time. Therefore, in order to be sustainable, smart cities need to consider many different aspects of the urban context, particularly in terms of long-term results. However, the literature has explored environmental sustainability almost exclusively, and we believe that for a city to be really sustainable, other dimensions of sustainability need to be further considered.

Indeed, sustainability in this smart city context is not only about the natural environment but also includes economic, political, and social aspects, as well as their results in the long term. First, economic and financial resources can influence the capability of the government to develop and sustain smart cities (Jiang et al., 2019). Second, in order to achieve social sustainability, smart cities should include a focus not only on service delivery but also on sustainable mechanisms of citizen engagement (Webster and Leleux, 2019) and knowledge sharing among collaborators (Rădulescu et al., 2020). Social sustainability in smart cities could lead to more inclusiveness and a richer appropriation of technology, making the city resilient (Aurigi and Odendaal, 2020) and enabling better management outcomes (Errichiello and Micera, 2018). Lastly, political sustainability matters for smart city initiatives to achieve their intended goals and be viable in the long-term. For instance, Van den Bergh and Viaene (2016) reveal that political willingness, commitment, and smart city leadership play a crucial role in the implementation and endurance of smart city initiatives. Thus, it is clear that there are many dimensions to smart cities’ sustainability, but the current literature has not adequately addressed all of them.

Therefore, this Special Issue of Sustainability entitled “Building Smart and Sustainable Cities: Emerging Technologies and Innovation for Digital-Era Governance and Long-Term Impacts” attempts to address a research need in terms of studies focusing on the (ecological, economic, social, and political) sustainability of smart cities. For instance, what needs to be done to achieve smart city long-term sustainability? How can we better assess these dimensions of sustainability in the context of smart cities? How do these dimensions relate to environmental sustainability? Accordingly, the Special Issue invites original, novel, and high-quality papers that advance our current understanding of smart and sustainable cities, including the role of emerging technologies and innovation in long-term urban governance. It takes a comprehensive perspective and attempts to bridge the gap between sound research and practice expertise in the area of smart and sustainable cities, including innovations in policy, management, technology, and data aspects. We welcome manuscripts encompassing conceptual approaches, theoretical frameworks, empirical research, and case studies of cities from all around the globe.

The Special Issue focuses on topics that include but are not limited to:

  • Smart cities and their sustainability in the long term;
  • Importance of (ecological, economic, and social) sustainability for smart cities;
  • Theories and analytical frameworks to study smart and sustainable cities;
  • Fundamental concepts underlying smart city initiatives, including sustainability aspects;
  • Relationships between smartness and sustainability in cities;
  • Emergent technologies and their implications for smart cities, including sustainability;
  • The role of innovative strategies in smart cities, including sustainability aspects;
  • Rigorous empirical studies about smart cities;
  • Case studies of smart city initiatives;
  • Research-based practical recommendations for making cities smarter;
  • Evaluation tools and strategies for smart city initiatives;
  • Public value assessment models for smart city initiatives;
  • Governance models for smart cities;
  • Managerial implications of smart city initiatives;
  • Implementation of smart city initiatives.

References

Aurigi, Alessandro and Nancy Odendaal (2020). From “Smart in the Box” to “Smart in the City”: Rethinking the Socially Sustainable Smart City in Context, Journal of Urban Technology, DOI: 10.1080/10630732.2019.1704203

Encalada L, Boavida-Portugal I, Cardoso Ferreira C, Rocha J. Identifying Tourist Places of Interest Based on Digital Imprints: Towards a Sustainable Smart City. Sustainability. 2017; 9(12):2317.

Errichiello, L., & Micera, R. (2018). Leveraging Smart Open Innovation for Achieving Cultural Sustainability: Learning from a New City Museum Project. Sustainability, 10(6), 1964.

Gasco-Hernandez, M. (2009). Criterios para evaluación de buenas prácticas en el ámbito del uso de las tecnologías de la información y las comunicaciones (Criteria to assess good practices related to the use of information and communication technologies). Barcelona: Fundació Pi i Sunyer.

Gasco, Mila and J. Ramon Gil-Garcia. (2017). Is It More than Using Data and Technology in Local Governments? Identifying Opportunities and Challenges for Cities to Become Smarter. UMKC Law Review, 85(4): 915-924.

Gil-Garcia, J. Ramon, Jing Zhang, and Gabriel Puron-Cid. (2016). Conceptualizing Smartness in Government: An Integrative and Multi-Dimensional View. Government Information Quarterly, 33 (3): 524–534.

Gil-Garcia, J. Ramon, Natalie Helbig and Adegboyega Ojo. (2014). Being smart: Emerging Technologies and Innovation in the Public Sector. Government Information Quarterly, 31 (Supplement 1): I1-I8.

Gil-Garcia, J. Ramon, Theresa A. Pardo and Taewoo Nam. (2015). What Makes a City Smart? Identifying Core Components and Proposing an Integrative and Comprehensive Conceptualization. Information Polity, 20 (1): 61–87.

Jiang, H., Geertman, S., & Witte, P. (2019). Smart urban governance: An urgent symbiosis? Information Polity, 24(3), 245–269.

Rădulescu, C. M., Slava, S., Rădulescu, A. T., Toader, R., Toader, D.-C., & Boca, G. D. (2020). A Pattern of Collaborative Networking for Enhancing Sustainability of Smart Cities. Sustainability, 12(3), 1042.

Van den Bergh, J., & Viaene, S. (2016). Unveiling smart city implementation challenges: The case of Ghent. Information Polity, 21(1), 5–19.

Webster, C. W. R and Leleux, C. (2019) Searching for the Real Sustainable Smart City?. Information Polity, 24 (3): 229-244.

Dr. J. Ramon Gil-Garcia
Dr. Mila Gasco-Hernandez
Mr. Tzuhao Chen
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • smart city
  • sustainable city
  • smart community
  • emergent technologies
  • innovation
  • urban context
  • urban governance
  • smart city initiative
  • economic sustainability
  • social sustainability
  • political sustainability
  • environmental sustainability

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 333 KiB  
Article
Smart City Results and Sustainability: Current Progress and Emergent Opportunities for Future Research
by J. Ramon Gil-Garcia, Tzuhao Chen and Mila Gasco-Hernandez
Sustainability 2023, 15(10), 8082; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108082 - 16 May 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4362
Abstract
The notion of sustainability has gained increasing popularity in smart city research. While numerous studies have focused on how smart city initiatives either undermine or contribute to sustainability, a few essential questions remain unanswered. First, a vast body of knowledge has been accumulated [...] Read more.
The notion of sustainability has gained increasing popularity in smart city research. While numerous studies have focused on how smart city initiatives either undermine or contribute to sustainability, a few essential questions remain unanswered. First, a vast body of knowledge has been accumulated on the results of smart cities, particularly their short-term outputs. However, it is not clear how those results can be sustained over time. Second, most of the existing literature touches on environmental and economic sustainability, whereas other perspectives, such as social and cultural sustainability, are still underexplored. Given these gaps, this study seeks to contribute to the sustainability and smart city literature by answering the following research questions: (1) To what extent have the results of smart city initiatives been addressed in previous studies? and (2) To what extent have smart city scholars addressed the different dimensions of sustainability? A narrative literature review was conducted. Our findings indicate that the sustainability of smart cities can be understood in two ways—the duration of results and the multi-dimensional long-term sustainability goals. Based on the findings, this study proposes a few intersections of the two concepts and an agenda to guide future research on sustainability in smart cities. Full article
23 pages, 8609 KiB  
Article
Are Smart Cities Too Expensive in the Long Term? Analyzing the Effects of ICT Infrastructure on Municipal Financial Sustainability
by Gabriel Puron-Cid and J. Ramon Gil-Garcia
Sustainability 2022, 14(10), 6055; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14106055 - 17 May 2022
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 5045
Abstract
Cities around the world are attempting to become smarter by using data and technology to improve internal operations, make better decisions, and increase the quality of life. This technology-intensive use frequently comes with large investments in the ICT infrastructure necessary for smart city [...] Read more.
Cities around the world are attempting to become smarter by using data and technology to improve internal operations, make better decisions, and increase the quality of life. This technology-intensive use frequently comes with large investments in the ICT infrastructure necessary for smart city initiatives, which may not be financially viable in the long term. Financial sustainability (FS) is a useful framework for assessing how governments meet their financial obligations, using different indicators of financial performance over time by controlling for contextual factors. This study examines 1723 municipal governments; only 89 of these explicitly conducted smart-city initiatives in Mexico over three time points (2014, 2016, and 2018). Panel data techniques were applied to compare the effects of the investments in ICT infrastructure across municipalities with or without smart-city initiatives on five indicators related to the financial condition within the FS framework (i.e., cash solvency, budget solvency, long-term solvency, service-level solvency for revenues and expenses). The results show an association between ICT infrastructure and some dimensions of FS. The main findings suggest the importance of adequate financial analysis for long-term capital and budgeting decisions, to create a more solid smart city financial strategy for the long term. Specific recommendations for city managers are also discussed. Full article
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17 pages, 1173 KiB  
Article
How Digital Platforms Enhance Urban Resilience
by Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv and Calvin M. L. Chan
Sustainability 2022, 14(3), 1285; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031285 - 24 Jan 2022
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 4878
Abstract
Throughout human history, natural and man-made disasters have devastated cities in unpredictable ways. Cities must therefore respond faster and better to minimize the risks posed by disasters. Nowadays, with the rapid development of communication technology, digital platforms are increasingly becoming an indispensable part [...] Read more.
Throughout human history, natural and man-made disasters have devastated cities in unpredictable ways. Cities must therefore respond faster and better to minimize the risks posed by disasters. Nowadays, with the rapid development of communication technology, digital platforms are increasingly becoming an indispensable part of people’s lives; hence, they could become a new force for urban resilience. However, there are few studies on how digital platforms enhance urban resilience, so this paper attempts to use the method of CiteSpace (V.5.8.R3, 64 bit) scientometrics analysis and literature analysis to study the dimensions and trends of urban resilience, the role of digital platforms in the dimensions of urban resilience, especially focusing on how digital platforms impact on urban resilience during COVID-19. The results showed that there is considerable literature on natural disasters and infrastructure, but few papers discuss urban governance, knowledge systems, and social media. Furthermore, it is also found that digital platforms contributed to the enhancement of urban resilience in China and Singapore during COVID-19. These suggests that enhancing urban resilience through digital platforms can be a viable approach. Full article
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22 pages, 1478 KiB  
Article
Smart Sustainable City Roadmap as a Tool for Addressing Sustainability Challenges and Building Governance Capacity
by Gabriela Viale Pereira and Luiza Schuch de Azambuja
Sustainability 2022, 14(1), 239; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010239 - 27 Dec 2021
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 6440
Abstract
Building smart sustainable cities initiatives requires governance capacity, which is constantly challenged by a diversity of actors and the transformation towards a digital society; however, the process of identifying the conditions for building a smart sustainable city (SSC) is not straightforward. As an [...] Read more.
Building smart sustainable cities initiatives requires governance capacity, which is constantly challenged by a diversity of actors and the transformation towards a digital society; however, the process of identifying the conditions for building a smart sustainable city (SSC) is not straightforward. As an attempt to map the key governance conditions, the goal of this study is to suggest guidelines for the development of SSC initiatives in the format of a generic roadmap. This research applies design science research methodology and builds the roadmap based on identified antecedents that may hinder or facilitate the development of SSC initiatives from a systematic literature review and the analysis of key governance aspects from 12 smart city initiatives in Europe and Latin America. This paper builds its results through a four-step approach including: (1) defining the main concepts and dimensions within the smart sustainable city context; (2) identifying sustainability challenges for the development of smart sustainable city initiatives; (3) analysing key governance aspects from smart sustainable city initiatives; and (4) designing an actionable research-based roadmap and practical recommendations. The resulting roadmap contains 11 key governance conditions for developing strategies for smart sustainable city initiatives that were classified into three main phases: (1) planning; (2) implementing; and (3) adopting, monitoring, and evaluating. In terms of contribution, this research provides a tool to support the development of initiatives, addressing sustainability challenges and strengthening governance capacity to ensure the long-term impacts of smart sustainable cities. Full article
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16 pages, 1176 KiB  
Article
The Giant Leap for Smart Cities: Scaling Up Smart City Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) Initiatives
by Berk Kaan Kuguoglu, Haiko van der Voort and Marijn Janssen
Sustainability 2021, 13(21), 12295; https://doi.org/10.3390/su132112295 - 7 Nov 2021
Cited by 35 | Viewed by 6366
Abstract
Despite the promise of AI and IoT, the efforts of many organizations at scaling smart city initiatives fall short. Organizations often start by exploring the potential with a proof-of-concept and a pilot project, with the process later grinding to a halt for various [...] Read more.
Despite the promise of AI and IoT, the efforts of many organizations at scaling smart city initiatives fall short. Organizations often start by exploring the potential with a proof-of-concept and a pilot project, with the process later grinding to a halt for various reasons. Pilot purgatory, in which organizations invest in small-scale implementations without them realizing substantial benefits, is given very little attention in the scientific literature relating to the question of why AI and IoT initiatives fail to scale up for smart cities. By combining extensive study of the literature and expert interviews, this research explores the underlying reasons why many smart city initiatives relying on Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) fail to scale up. The findings suggest that a multitude of factors may leave organizations ill prepared for smart city AIoT solutions, and that these tend to multiply when cities lack much-needed resources and capabilities. Yet many organizations tend to overlook the fact that such initiatives require them to pay attention to all aspects of change: strategy, data, people and organization, process, and technology. Furthermore, the research reveals that some factors tend to be more influential in certain stages. Strategic factors tend to be more prominent in the earlier stages, whereas factors relating to people and the organization tend to feature later when organizations roll out solutions. The study also puts forward potential strategies that companies can employ to scale up successfully. Three main strategic themes emerge from the study: proof-of-value, rather than proof-of-concept; treating and managing data as a key asset; and commitment at all levels. Full article
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21 pages, 3002 KiB  
Article
From Sustainable Development Goals to Sustainable Cities: A Social Media Analysis for Policy-Making Decision
by Amal Marzouki, Arbi Chouikh, Sehl Mellouli and Rim Haddad
Sustainability 2021, 13(15), 8136; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158136 - 21 Jul 2021
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 5130
Abstract
The United Nations (UN) adopted the seventeen “Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs) in early September 2015. One of these goals is SDG 11, which refers to the sustainable cities and communities. In this context, local governments face the challenge of aligning with this objective. [...] Read more.
The United Nations (UN) adopted the seventeen “Sustainable Development Goals” (SDGs) in early September 2015. One of these goals is SDG 11, which refers to the sustainable cities and communities. In this context, local governments face the challenge of aligning with this objective. As a result, they are increasing outreach to their organizational boundaries to involve citizens in policy making and strategy development, continually listening to citizens’ voices. One of the methods citizens use to express themselves is social media. This paper will emphasize social media platforms and specially Twitter to explore the public discourse about cities in the context of SDG 11. We applied descriptive quantitative and qualitative analysis to analyze the tweets that include terms and hashtags referring to the SDG 11. The data analysis process is composed of three major procedures: 1-Engagement analysis, 2-Trends based analysis and 3-Data Insights. Our results show that: 1-the COVID’19 pandemic negatively impacted users engagement towards SDG 11, 2-new technologies such AI and IoT are gaining more importance to help cities reach SDG 11, and 3-the SDGs are related and one SDG can impact other SDGs. Full article
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18 pages, 712 KiB  
Article
Transition towards Smart City: The Case of Tallinn
by Lill Sarv and Ralf-Martin Soe
Sustainability 2021, 13(8), 4143; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13084143 - 8 Apr 2021
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3660
Abstract
The main interest of this paper is to analyze the gap between an existing city and its future vision set in the strategy, with a focus on the transition path towards becoming a Smart City. For the analyses, we used the example of [...] Read more.
The main interest of this paper is to analyze the gap between an existing city and its future vision set in the strategy, with a focus on the transition path towards becoming a Smart City. For the analyses, we used the example of Tallinn, a middle-sized European capital city acknowledged in innovation reports as a good example of a Smart City development. This is a qualitative case study with data based on the Tallinn 2035 strategy document and on the interviews conducted with city officials. We mapped the current situation in regard to the four Smart City strategies dichotomies framework in order to understand if and how the future vision of Tallinn differs from the present. The results indicate that the current direction deviates in several ways from the future vision set in the strategy, and that to be able to move towards the vision, strategic changes are needed. With this paper we hope to add some insights to the literature about the knowledge gap between Smart City theory and implementation from the perspective of a present situation versus long-term strategy. Full article
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22 pages, 6507 KiB  
Article
Digital Divide in Advanced Smart City Innovations
by Seung-Yoon Shin, Dongwook Kim and Soon Ae Chun
Sustainability 2021, 13(7), 4076; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13074076 - 6 Apr 2021
Cited by 58 | Viewed by 9156
Abstract
A smart city aims to become a citizen-centered city where citizens actively engage in urban operation and share urban data within a high-tech ICT infrastructure. It premises ‘smart citizens’ who can understand and utilize digital technology to adapt well to the various infrastructure [...] Read more.
A smart city aims to become a citizen-centered city where citizens actively engage in urban operation and share urban data within a high-tech ICT infrastructure. It premises ‘smart citizens’ who can understand and utilize digital technology to adapt well to the various infrastructure of smart cities. In reality, however, not only tech-savvy citizens but those who are not likely to coexist in a smart city. Disadvantaged groups with relatively insufficient awareness and the necessity of technologies might be excluded from smart cities’ various benefits. The smart city innovations need to encompass diverse social groups’ engagements to claim their legitimacy and sustainability from a long-term perspective. In this light, this study examines the potential digital divide in the advanced technologies used in the emerging 5G smart city era. Using survey data, we investigate if the smart citizens’ social and technical readiness in terms of the use experience and necessity of new technologies can predict the adoption and use of the emerging 5G smart city innovations. The empirical results from this study can inform the digital divide between the general public and technology-disadvantaged groups. The findings can also guide policymakers in prioritizing technologies that are accessible and beneficial to all potential residents of smart cities in the future. Finally, the results yield specific policy implications for practitioners who design more inclusive and sustainable smart cities in the 5G era. Full article
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20 pages, 700 KiB  
Article
Different Levels of Smart and Sustainable Cities Construction Using e-Participation Tools in European and Central Asian Countries
by Laura Alcaide Muñoz and Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar
Sustainability 2021, 13(6), 3561; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063561 - 23 Mar 2021
Cited by 27 | Viewed by 4649
Abstract
Cities are developing strategies to deal with the complex challenges of global change and sustainability. These initiatives have involved the implementation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) as a good driver for achieving sustainability because digital transformation can boost sustainable development strategies, providing [...] Read more.
Cities are developing strategies to deal with the complex challenges of global change and sustainability. These initiatives have involved the implementation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) as a good driver for achieving sustainability because digital transformation can boost sustainable development strategies, providing opportunities to accelerate transformation. Smart City (SC) models built on empowering people in making public decisions favor access to sustainable development solutions based on knowledge and innovation. Nonetheless, SC experiences around the world denote divergent conceptions of SCs which could lead to different SCs construction. It deserves a more thorough understanding of the nature of collaboration in different settings. Therefore, this paper contributes to the debate on the different uses of ICTs in SCs construction in developing vs. developed countries, by examining the use of ICTs for creating collaborative environments in a sample of SCs in different countries, depending on their economic level, and seeking to identify differences in the objectives pursued by city governments with the use of these technologies. To achieve this aim, e-participation platforms, apps or social media platforms (European and Central Asia SCs) are examined for identifying SCs construction differences between developed vs. developing countries. The findings of this paper put an emphasis on the need for taking into account the differences among SCs in developed vs. developing countries when raking or when performance measurement is designed, because the assessment should be tailored to the cities’ particular visions and priorities for achieving their objectives. Full article
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25 pages, 4193 KiB  
Article
Optimization of a Novel Urban Growth Simulation Model Integrating an Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Cellular Automata for a Smart City
by Xinxin Huang, Gang Xu and Fengtao Xiao
Sustainability 2021, 13(4), 2338; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042338 - 22 Feb 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3604
Abstract
As one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, it is sensible to analysis historical urban land use characteristics and project the potentials of urban sustainable development for a smart city. The cellular automaton (CA) model is the widely applied in simulating urban growth, [...] Read more.
As one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, it is sensible to analysis historical urban land use characteristics and project the potentials of urban sustainable development for a smart city. The cellular automaton (CA) model is the widely applied in simulating urban growth, but the optimum parameters of variables driving urban growth in the model remains to be continued to improve. We propose a novel model integrating an artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) and CA for optimizing parameters of variables in the urban growth model and make a comparison between AFSA-CA and other five models, which is used to study a 40-year urban land growth of Wuhan. We found that the urban growth types from 1995 to 2015 appeared relatively consistent, mainly including infilling, edge-expansion and distant-leap types in Wuhan, which a certain range of urban land growth on the periphery of the central area. Additionally, although the genetic algorithms (GA)-CA model and the AFSA-CA model among the six models due to the distance variables, the parameter value of the GA-CA model is −15.5409 according to the fact that the population (POP) variable should be positively. As a result, the AFSA-CA model regardless of the initial parameter setting is superior to the GA-CA model and the GA-CA model is superior to all the other models. Finally, it is projected that the potentials of urban growth in Wuhan for 2025 and 2035 under three scenarios (natural urban land growth without any restrictions (NULG), sustainable urban land growth with cropland protection and ecological security (SULG), and economic urban land growth with sustainable development and economic development in the core area (EULG)) focus mainly on existing urban land and some new town centers based on AFSA-CA urban growth simulation model. An increasingly precise simulation can determine the potential increase area and quantity of urban land, providing a basis to judge the layout of urban land use for urban planners. Full article
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