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Sustainability
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Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies
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Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Energy Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 August 2021) | Viewed by 19649

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Thomas Pregger

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems (formerly Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics), Department Energy Systems Analysis, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Interests: renewable energy; energy scenarios; techno-economic development paths; environmental and economic effects
Dr. Urte Brand

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Department Energy Systems Analysis, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany
Interests: renewable energy; technology assessment; life-cycle analysis; social aspects of energy transition

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Assumptions on the development of technologies and their system integration are essential for the assessment of future options and paths for sustainable energy systems. With the help of techno-economic scenarios, detailed technology-related knowledge and projections of the energy economic boundary conditions are integrated. However, further knowledge is relevant to achieve a comprehensive and robust evaluation of future options and scenarios. Social factors and environmental effects play an important role; the life cycles of the technologies have to be considered and macroeconomic effects and actor-related investment incentives have to be taken into account. In this context, the Special Issue offers contributions that advance the assessment of key technologies for a sustainable energy supply, taking into account their system integration and expected path development. The focus is on emerging and innovative technologies for the generation, conversion and storage of electricity, heat and fuels. Different sustainability aspects and prospective assessment methods may be addressed.

Dr. Thomas Pregger
Dr. Urte Brand
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

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Keywords

  • sustainable energy supply
  • technologies for the energy transition
  • multi-dimensional technology assessment
  • system integration of technologies
  • multi-dimensional scenario assessment
  • prospective assessment
  • macroeconomic and societal/social factors

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

26 pages, 6676 KiB  
Article
A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget
by Sonja Simon, Mengzhu Xiao, Carina Harpprecht, Shima Sasanpour, Hedda Gardian and Thomas Pregger
Sustainability 2022, 14(2), 1025; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14021025 - 17 Jan 2022
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3034
Abstract
We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions [...] Read more.
We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies)
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29 pages, 3827 KiB  
Article
Combining Business Model Innovation and Model-Based Analysis to Tackle the Deep Uncertainty of Societal Transitions—A Case Study on Industrial Electrification and Power Grid Management
by Juliana Zapata Riveros, Matthias Speich, Mirjam West and Silvia Ulli-Beer
Sustainability 2021, 13(13), 7264; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13137264 - 29 Jun 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2497
Abstract
Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics, and [...] Read more.
Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics, and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of sociotechnical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a potential business model for Distribution System Operators aiming at ensuring the stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendations for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies)
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28 pages, 22202 KiB  
Article
Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways
by Tobias Naegler, Lisa Becker, Jens Buchgeister, Wolfgang Hauser, Heidi Hottenroth, Tobias Junne, Ulrike Lehr, Oliver Scheel, Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele, Sonja Simon, Claudia Sutardhio, Ingela Tietze, Philip Ulrich, Tobias Viere and Anke Weidlich
Sustainability 2021, 13(9), 5217; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095217 - 7 May 2021
Cited by 30 | Viewed by 5815
Abstract
Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of [...] Read more.
Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways is presented here. It first integrates energy system modeling with a multidimensional impact assessment that focuses on life cycle-based environmental and macroeconomic impacts. Then, stakeholders’ preferences with respect to defined sustainability indicators are inquired, which are finally integrated into a comparative scenario evaluation through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), all in one consistent assessment framework. As an illustrative example, this holistic approach is applied to the sustainability assessment of ten different transformation strategies for Germany. Applying multi-criteria decision analysis reveals that both ambitious (80%) and highly ambitious (95%) carbon reduction scenarios can achieve top sustainability ranks, depending on the underlying energy transformation pathways and respective scores in other sustainability dimensions. Furthermore, this research highlights an increasingly dominant contribution of energy systems’ upstream chains on total environmental impacts, reveals rather small differences in macroeconomic effects between different scenarios and identifies the transition among societal segments and climate impact minimization as the most important stakeholder preferences. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies)
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19 pages, 827 KiB  
Article
Adopting Multiactor Multicriteria Analysis for the Evaluation of Energy Scenarios
by Sebastian Schär and Jutta Geldermann
Sustainability 2021, 13(5), 2594; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052594 - 1 Mar 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2915
Abstract
The assessment of future options and pathways for sustainable energy systems requires considering multiple techno-economic, ecological and social issues. Multicriteria analysis methods, which are useful tools that aid decision processes involving various and even conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria, could support such comprehensive [...] Read more.
The assessment of future options and pathways for sustainable energy systems requires considering multiple techno-economic, ecological and social issues. Multicriteria analysis methods, which are useful tools that aid decision processes involving various and even conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria, could support such comprehensive analyses. With regard to energy policies, the key actors and stakeholders’ acceptance of emerging and innovative technologies for generating, converting and storing electricity, heat and fuels is crucial for their future implementation. The multiactor multicriteria (MAMCA) methodology was developed to involve stakeholders with vastly different views and objectives when addressing complex societal problems. We extend the MAMCA methodology to include the outranking approach PROMETHEE, which allows us to explicitly consider the stakeholders’ objectives in the evaluation process. The MAMCA method with PROMETHEE is applied to a case study of four different transition pathways of providing electricity to a bioenergy village in Germany. The explicit mapping at hand of an illustrative case study could help researchers and decision makers greatly in the assessment of pathways for sustainable energy systems; it is also applicable in other contexts requiring extensive stakeholder involvement and where qualitative and quantitative criteria are to be considered simultaneously. The detailed sensitivity analysis provided by the extension of the MAMCA method with PROMETHEE not only reveals the stakeholders’ crucial trade-offs when allowing each stakeholder group to develop its own set of criteria and weights but also indicates compromise options. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies)
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28 pages, 8204 KiB  
Article
Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany
by Tobias Junne, Sonja Simon, Jens Buchgeister, Maximilian Saiger, Manuel Baumann, Martina Haase, Christina Wulf and Tobias Naegler
Sustainability 2020, 12(19), 8225; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198225 - 6 Oct 2020
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4428
Abstract
In order to analyse long-term transformation pathways, energy system models generally focus on economical and technical characteristics. However, these models usually do not consider sustainability aspects such as environmental impacts. In contrast, life cycle assessment enables an extensive estimate of those impacts. Due [...] Read more.
In order to analyse long-term transformation pathways, energy system models generally focus on economical and technical characteristics. However, these models usually do not consider sustainability aspects such as environmental impacts. In contrast, life cycle assessment enables an extensive estimate of those impacts. Due to these complementary characteristics, the combination of energy system models and life cycle assessment thus allows comprehensive environmental sustainability assessments of technically and economically feasible energy system transformation pathways. We introduce FRITS, a FRamework for the assessment of environmental Impacts of Transformation Scenarios. FRITS links bottom-up energy system models with life cycle impact assessment indicators and quantifies the environmental impacts of transformation strategies of the entire energy system (power, heat, transport) over the transition period. We apply the framework to conduct an environmental assessment of multi-sectoral energy scenarios for Germany. Here, a ‘Target’ scenario reaching 80% reduction of energy-related direct CO2 emissions is compared with a ‘Reference’ scenario describing a less ambitious transformation pathway. The results show that compared to 2015 and the ‘Reference’ scenario, the ‘Target’ scenario performs better for most life cycle impact assessment indicators. However, the impacts of resource consumption and land use increase for the ‘Target’ scenario. These impacts are mainly caused by road passenger transport and biomass conversion. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analyzing Development Paths of Emerging Energy Technologies)
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