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Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies
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Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 December 2022) | Viewed by 20278

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Gazi Salah Uddin

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering (IEI), Linköping University, SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden
Interests: commodity market; time series econometrics; applied macroeconomics and financial market integration
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Victor Troster

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Applied Economics, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Cra. Valldemossa km 7.5, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Interests: Financial econometrics, Granger-causality in quantiles, quantile regression, backtesting, portfolio management, spillovers

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Geopolitics in energy markets, climate change, and economic crisis are major challenges for sustainable global economic balance. Scholars try to offer new measures to better understand sustainable economic growth through the activities of economic agents. The recent economic crisis and the lingering global climate change have increased uncertainty in markets, with serious consequences to growth, unemployment, and social welfare of the world economy.

This special issue aims to publish high-quality research papers on the inter-disciplinary field of geopolitical risk in emerging economies analyzing the asymmetric nature of shocks in the economy and their implications on the business, energy, tourism, and financial system. Further, this issue investigates the dependence structure among business cycles and financial asset classes such as stocks, commodities, fintech, and green investments.

Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies is the special issue of the 3rd Emerging Topics in Financial Economics, March 12-13, 2020, organized by the Economics Division of the Department of Management and Engineering at the Linköping University, Sweden. Authors are invited to submit their full papers in PDF files, no later than 15 February 2020 by e-mail. E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]

This special issue focuses on the following issues:

  1. The impact of economic and financial uncertainties on financial markets
  2. Geopolitics and cyber threat in energy markets and financial system
  3. The impact of uncertainties on financial asset classes such as stocks, commodities, fintech, and green investments
  4. The impact of terrorist attacks and political uncertainty on the tourism industry
  5. Measuring systemic risk in the financial markets.

Deadline for submission full paper: July 30, 2020.

Dr. Gazi Salah Uddin
Dr. Victor Troster
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Geopolitical risk
  • Economic and financial uncertainty
  • Cyber and terrorist attacks
  • Emerging economies
  • Sustainable finance
  • Systemic Risk

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 3278 KiB  
Article
Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats
by Faheem Aslam, Paulo Ferreira, Haider Ali and Ana Ercília José
Sustainability 2022, 14(10), 5828; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14105828 - 11 May 2022
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 2304
Abstract
Since the industrial revolution, the geopolitics of energy has been a driver of global prosperity and security, and determines the survival of life on our planet. This study examines the nonlinear structure and multifractal behavior of the cross-correlation between geopolitical risk and energy [...] Read more.
Since the industrial revolution, the geopolitics of energy has been a driver of global prosperity and security, and determines the survival of life on our planet. This study examines the nonlinear structure and multifractal behavior of the cross-correlation between geopolitical risk and energy markets (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, natural gas and heating oil), using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis reveals different associations of the indices of overall geopolitical risk, geopolitical acts, and geopolitical threats against the four energy products. Based on daily data ranging from 1 January 1985 to 30 August 2021, the findings confirm the presence of nonlinear dependencies, suggesting that geopolitical risk and energy markets are interlinked. Furthermore, significant multifractal characteristics are found and the degree of multifractality is stronger between the overall geopolitical risk and WTI while the lowest degree of multifractality is with Brent. Overall, for the WTI and heating-oil markets, the influence of geopolitical threats is more pronounced rather than their fulfilment. Contrarily, the Brent and natural gas are more correlated to geopolitical acts. Energy products exhibit heterogeneous persistence levels of cross-correlation with all the indicators of geopolitical risk, being more persistent in the case of small fluctuations compared to large fluctuations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies)
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14 pages, 6143 KiB  
Article
On Hedging Properties of Infrastructure Assets during the Pandemic: What We Learn from Global and Emerging Markets?
by Bambang Susantono, Gazi Salah Uddin, Donghyun Park and Shu Tian
Sustainability 2022, 14(5), 2987; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052987 - 3 Mar 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1954
Abstract
Infrastructure investment is essential for economic development for both developed and developing economies. We analyze the short-term return behavior and portfolio characteristics of the global, regional, and selected Asian countries’ infrastructure indexes during the pandemic over the sample period 3 July 2018 to [...] Read more.
Infrastructure investment is essential for economic development for both developed and developing economies. We analyze the short-term return behavior and portfolio characteristics of the global, regional, and selected Asian countries’ infrastructure indexes during the pandemic over the sample period 3 July 2018 to 1 July 2021. According to the multivariate Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (GJR) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, infrastructure assets are very heterogeneous depending on the corresponding asset classes. Empirical evidence suggests that infrastructure can be treated as a separate asset sub-class within conventional financial assets. Moreover, we quantify the co-movements between returns on various listed infrastructure indexes and major asset classes, including equity, commodity, currency, and bond index returns. We find that infrastructure assets offer hedging potential against the USD index and USD denominated assets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies)
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21 pages, 2937 KiB  
Article
Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies
by Mudassar Hasan, Muhammad Abubakr Naeem, Muhammad Arif, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad and Safwan Mohd Nor
Sustainability 2020, 12(21), 9261; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219261 - 7 Nov 2020
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3737
Abstract
A bulk of literature suggests that geopolitical events such as terrorist attacks dampen tourism demand. However, there is little research on whether this effect helps predict the return of the tourism equity sector. We provide country-level evidence on whether local and global geopolitical [...] Read more.
A bulk of literature suggests that geopolitical events such as terrorist attacks dampen tourism demand. However, there is little research on whether this effect helps predict the return of the tourism equity sector. We provide country-level evidence on whether local and global geopolitical risk (GPR) predicts the first and second moments of tourism stocks in emerging economies. This objective was achieved by employing the non-parametric causality-in-quantiles (CiQ) model and a cross-quantilogram (CQ) test, which allowed us to uncover the predictive potential of GPR for the tourism sector equities. Our findings, obtained through the CiQ model, suggest that while both local and global GPRs carry significant potential for predicting the returns and volatility of tourism stocks of most emerging economies under normal market conditions, they seem to play no such role in certain countries. These countries include South Korea, for which only a limited number of tourism stocks trade on the domestic stock market compared to other sectors, and Colombia, for which both the domestic stock market and tourism sectors are at an emerging stage. Further, it turns out that, compared to its local counterpart, global GPR has a more pronounced predictive power for the tourism stocks of emerging economies. Finally, with some exceptions, the results are qualitatively similar, and hence reasonably robust, to those when a directional predictability model is applied. Given that geopolitical shocks are largely unanticipated, our findings underscore the importance of a robust tourism sector that can help the market recover to stability as well as an open economy that allows local investors to diversify country-specific risks in their portfolios. Implications and directions for future research are discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies)
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15 pages, 245 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Technological Innovation of Resource-Based Industries
by Weiqing Li, Huaping Sun, Dang Khoa Tran and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Sustainability 2020, 12(17), 6837; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12176837 - 23 Aug 2020
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 3432
Abstract
The development of the resource-based industry has obvious negative externality, and the government’s environmental regulation on the resource-based industry will force the technological innovation of the resource-based industry. This paper selects the panel data of 12 resource-based industries in China from 2003 to [...] Read more.
The development of the resource-based industry has obvious negative externality, and the government’s environmental regulation on the resource-based industry will force the technological innovation of the resource-based industry. This paper selects the panel data of 12 resource-based industries in China from 2003 to 2019 and tests the impact of environmental regulation on technological innovation of resource-based industries by constructing the econometric model. The results show that environmental regulation can promote the technological innovation of resource-based industries. Specifically, environmental regulation has no significant positive impact on the immediate product innovation of 12 resource-based industries in China, but it has a significant positive impact on the product innovation lagging behind one period and two periods. Environmental regulation has no significant impact on the process innovation of current period, but has a significant positive impact on the process innovation of lagging one period. Industrial scale has a significant positive impact on product innovation of resource-based industries. The input of scientific and technological activity personnel has a significant positive impact on the product innovation of current period, and in the long run, it promotes both product innovation and process innovation. On this basis, this paper puts forward the relevant measures and suggestions for the formulation of environmental regulation policies. The government departments should subdivide the resource-based industries, formulate environmental rules and policies by classification, encourage industrial enterprises to carry out technological innovation, reasonably implement fiscal and taxation policy tools and increase the investment in R&D funds, and improve the training mechanism of scientific and technological personnel. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies)
17 pages, 1692 KiB  
Article
Geopolitical Risk and Energy Transition in Russia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Method
by Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Jinsok Sung and Nisit Panthamit
Sustainability 2020, 12(7), 2689; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072689 - 30 Mar 2020
Cited by 87 | Viewed by 6673
Abstract
One of the current debatable global problems is climate change or global warming as crucial geopolitical risks. The progress of energy transition by considering geopolitical risk has not been considered seriously yet. This paper contributes to the literature by modeling and analyzing energy [...] Read more.
One of the current debatable global problems is climate change or global warming as crucial geopolitical risks. The progress of energy transition by considering geopolitical risk has not been considered seriously yet. This paper contributes to the literature by modeling and analyzing energy transition patterns in Russia with emphasis on geopolitical risks factor as a giant fossil fuels producer using the ARDL bounds testing method over the period of 1993–2018. The main results proved long-run negative impact of economic growth, population growth and inflation rate on energy transition of Russia, while CO2 emissions, geopolitical risk, exchange rate and financial openness have positive impacts on energy transition movement in the country. Furthermore, we found out that in the short-run, the relationship between energy transition improvement and economic growth, CO2 emissions, population growth and inflation rate is negative, while geopolitical risk, exchange rate and financial openness are the only variables which accelerate energy transition in the country. As major concluding remarks, Russia’s policy makers should draw attention to the long-run energy plans in the country. Furthermore, lowering dependency of Federals’ budget to the oil and gas revenues would be a useful policy to reduce negative impact of economic growth on energy transition movement in the country. Another recommendation is to determine rapid decarbonizing policies in the country. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Geopolitical Risk in Emerging Economies)
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