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Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate
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Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (13 June 2014) | Viewed by 133310

Printed Edition Available!
A printed edition of this Special Issue is available here.

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Simon Beecham

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
UniSA STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics), University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095, Australia
Interests: water; permeable/pavements; sustainable construction material; eco-efficiency; carbon offset
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Julia Piantadosi

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Division of Information Technology, Engineering and the Environment, School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences, Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia, South Australia 5001, Australia
Interests: stochastic applied optimal control in the area of water management; decision making under uncertainty and environmental applications; climate change impacts on water resources; multi-dimensional copulas of maximum entropy and application to stochastic rainfall models

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleaugues,

Climate change will bring about significant changes to the capacity of, and the demand on, water resources. The resulting changes include increasing climate variability that is expected to affect hydrologic conditions. The effects of climate variability on various meteorological variables have been extensively observed in many regions around the world. Of these, rainfall is one of the most important variables. Understanding the effects of climate variability on spatial and temporal rainfall characteristics is of special interest to water resource policy makers. Investigating rainfall variability at the regional scale is essential for understanding potential impacts on humans and the natural environment. Atmospheric circulation, topography, land use and other regional features modify global changes to produce unique patterns of change at the regional scale. As the future changes to these water resources cannot be measured in the present, hydrological models are critical in the planning required to adapt our water resource management strategies to future climate conditions. Such models include catchment runoff models, reservoir management models, flood prediction models, groundwater recharge and flow models, and crop water balance models. In water-scarce regions such as Australia, urban water systems are particularly vulnerable to rapid population growth and climate change. In the presence of climate change induced uncertainty, urban water systems need to be more resilient and multi-sourced. Decreasing volumetric rainfall trends have an effect on reservoir yield and operation practices. Severe intensity rainfall events can cause failure of drainage system capacity and subsequent urban flood inundation problems. Policy makers, end users and leading researchers need to work together to develop a consistent approach to interpreting the effects of climate variability and change on water resources.

Prof. Dr. Simon Beecham
Dr. Julia Piantadosi
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • water resources management
  • uncertainty
  • meteorological variables
  • hydrological models
  • climate models

Published Papers (15 papers)

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Research

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674 KiB  
Article
Suitability of a Coupled Hydrodynamic Water Quality Model to Predict Changes in Water Quality from Altered Meteorological Boundary Conditions
by Leon Van der Linden, Robert I. Daly and Mike D. Burch
Water 2015, 7(1), 348-361; https://doi.org/10.3390/w7010348 - 20 Jan 2015
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 6090
Abstract
Downscaled climate scenarios can be used to inform management decisions on investment in infrastructure or alternative water sources within water supply systems. Appropriate models of the system components, such as catchments, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, are required. The climatic sensitivity of the coupled [...] Read more.
Downscaled climate scenarios can be used to inform management decisions on investment in infrastructure or alternative water sources within water supply systems. Appropriate models of the system components, such as catchments, rivers, lakes and reservoirs, are required. The climatic sensitivity of the coupled hydrodynamic water quality model ELCOM-CAEDYM was investigated, by incrementally altering boundary conditions, to determine its suitability for evaluating climate change impacts. A series of simulations were run with altered boundary condition inputs for the reservoir. Air and inflowing water temperature (TEMP), wind speed (WIND) and reservoir inflow and outflow volumes (FLOW) were altered to investigate the sensitivity of these key drivers over relevant domains. The simulated water quality variables responded in broadly plausible ways to the altered boundary conditions; sensitivity of the simulated cyanobacteria population to increases in temperature was similar to published values. However the negative response of total chlorophyll-a suggested by the model was not supported by an empirical analysis of climatic sensitivity. This study demonstrated that ELCOM-CAEDYM is sensitive to climate drivers and may be suitable for use in climate impact studies. It is recommended that the influence of structural and parameter derived uncertainty on the results be evaluated. Important factors in determining phytoplankton growth were identified and the importance of inflowing water quality was emphasized. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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382 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Short Term Rainfall and Stream Flows in South Australia
by Mohammad Kamruzzaman, Md Sumon Shahriar and Simon Beecham
Water 2014, 6(11), 3528-3544; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6113528 - 19 Nov 2014
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 6569
Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between rainfall and stream flow at Broughton River in Mooroola, Torrance River in Mount Pleasant, and Wakefield River near Rhyine, in South Australia, from 1990 to 2010. Initially, we present a short term [...] Read more.
The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between rainfall and stream flow at Broughton River in Mooroola, Torrance River in Mount Pleasant, and Wakefield River near Rhyine, in South Australia, from 1990 to 2010. Initially, we present a short term relationship between rainfall and stream flow, in terms of correlations, lagged correlations, and estimated variability between wavelet coefficients at each level. A deterministic regression based response model is used to detect linear, quadratic and polynomial trends, while allowing for seasonality effects. Antecedent rainfall data were considered to predict stream flow. The best fitting model was selected based on maximum adjusted R2 values (R2adj ), minimum sigma square (σ2), and a minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The best performance in the response model is lag rainfall, which indicates at least one day and up to 7 days (past) difference in rainfall, including offset cross products of lag rainfall. With the inclusion of antecedent stream flow as an input with one day time lag, the result shows a significant improvement of the R2adj values from 0.18, 0.26 and 0.14 to 0.35, 0.42 and 0.21 at Broughton River, Torrance River and Wakefield River, respectively. A benchmark comparison was made with an Artificial Neural Network analysis. The optimization strategy involved adopting a minimum mean absolute error (MAE). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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312 KiB  
Article
Understanding Irrigator Bidding Behavior in Australian Water Markets in Response to Uncertainty
by Alec Zuo, Robert Brooks, Sarah Ann Wheeler, Edwyna Harris and Henning Bjornlund
Water 2014, 6(11), 3457-3477; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6113457 - 14 Nov 2014
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 5468
Abstract
Water markets have been used by Australian irrigators as a way to reduce risk and uncertainty in times of low water allocations and rainfall. However, little is known about how irrigators’ bidding trading behavior in water markets compares to other markets, nor is [...] Read more.
Water markets have been used by Australian irrigators as a way to reduce risk and uncertainty in times of low water allocations and rainfall. However, little is known about how irrigators’ bidding trading behavior in water markets compares to other markets, nor is it known what role uncertainty and a lack of water in a variable and changing climate plays in influencing behavior. This paper studies irrigator behavior in Victorian water markets over a decade (a time period that included a severe drought). In particular, it studies the evidence for price clustering (when water bids/offers end mostly around particular numbers), a common phenomenon present in other established markets. We found that clustering in bid/offer prices in Victorian water allocation markets was influenced by uncertainty and strategic behavior. Water traders evaluate the costs and benefits of clustering and act according to their risk aversion levels. Water market buyer clustering behavior was mostly explained by increased market uncertainty (in particular, hotter and drier conditions), while seller-clustering behavior is mostly explained by strategic behavioral factors which evaluate the costs and benefits of clustering. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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1616 KiB  
Article
Impact of Climate Change on the Irrigation Water Requirement in Northern Taiwan
by Jyun-Long Lee and Wen-Cheng Huang
Water 2014, 6(11), 3339-3361; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6113339 - 07 Nov 2014
Cited by 27 | Viewed by 8251
Abstract
The requirement for irrigation water would be affected by the variation of meteorological effects under the conditions of climate change, and irrigation water will always be the major portion of the water consumption in Taiwan. This study tries to assess the impact on [...] Read more.
The requirement for irrigation water would be affected by the variation of meteorological effects under the conditions of climate change, and irrigation water will always be the major portion of the water consumption in Taiwan. This study tries to assess the impact on irrigation water by climate change in Taoyuan in northern Taiwan. Projected rainfall and temperature during 2046–2065 are adopted from five downscaled general circulation models. The future evapotranspiration is derived from the Hamon method and corrected with the quadrant transformation method. Based on the projections and a water balance model in paddy fields, the future crop water requirement, effective rainfall and the demand for water for irrigation can be calculated. A comparison between the present (2004–2011) and the future (2046–2065) clearly shows that climate change would lead both rainfall and the temperature to rise; this would cause effective rainfall and crop water requirement to increase during cropping seasons in the future. Overall, growing effective rainfall neutralizes increasing crop water requirement, the difference of average irrigation water requirement between the present and future is insignificant (<2.5%). However, based on a five year return period, the future irrigation requirement is 7.1% more than the present in the first cropping season, but it is insignificantly less (2.1%) than the present in the second cropping season. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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4739 KiB  
Article
Scenario-Based Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Land and Water Degradation from the Meso to Regional Scale
by Aymar Y. Bossa, Bernd Diekkrüger and Euloge K. Agbossou
Water 2014, 6(10), 3152-3181; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103152 - 20 Oct 2014
Cited by 41 | Viewed by 9434
Abstract
Scale-dependent parameter models were developed and nested to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-SWAT to simulate climate and land use change impacts on water-sediment-nutrient yields in Benin at a regional scale (49,256 km²). Weighted contributions of relevant landscape attributes characterizing the spatial pattern [...] Read more.
Scale-dependent parameter models were developed and nested to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-SWAT to simulate climate and land use change impacts on water-sediment-nutrient yields in Benin at a regional scale (49,256 km²). Weighted contributions of relevant landscape attributes characterizing the spatial pattern of ongoing hydrological processes were used to constrain the model parameters to acceptable physical meanings. Climate change projections (describing a rainfall reduction of up to 25%) simulated throughout the Regional Model-REMO, very sensitive to a prescribed degradation of land cover, were considered. Land use change scenarios in which the population growth was translated into a specific demand for settlements and croplands (cropland increase of up to 40%) according to the development of the national framework, were also considered. The results were consistent with simulations performed at the meso-scale (586 km2) where local management operations were incorporated. Surface runoff, groundwater flow, sediment and organic N and P yields were affected by land use change (as major effects) of −8% to +50%, while water yield and evapotranspiration were dominantly affected by climate change of −31% to +2%. This tendency was more marked at the regional scale as response to higher scale-dependent rates of natural vegetations with higher conversions to croplands. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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1787 KiB  
Article
Vulnerability Assessment of Environmental and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman
by Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani, Martin F. Price, Asma Abahussain, Mushtaque Ahmed and Timothy O'Higgins
Water 2014, 6(10), 3118-3135; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103118 - 17 Oct 2014
Cited by 41 | Viewed by 11799
Abstract
Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of [...] Read more.
Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to water resources systems which are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Water resources in arid mountain regions, such as Al Jabal Al Akhdar; northern Sultanate of Oman, are vulnerable to the potential adverse impacts of environmental and climate change. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes are exerting pressures and have direct impacts on increasing demands for water resources and their vulnerability. In this study, vulnerability assessment was carried out using guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Peking University to evaluate four components of the water resource system: water resources stress, water development pressure, ecological health, and management capacity. The calculated vulnerability index (VI) was high, indicating that the water resources are experiencing levels of stress. Ecosystem deterioration was the dominant parameter and management capacity was the dominant category driving the vulnerability on water resources. The vulnerability assessment will support policy and decision makers in evaluating options to modify existing policies. It will also help in developing long-term strategic plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures and implement effective policies for sustainable water resources management, and therefore the sustenance of human wellbeing in the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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834 KiB  
Article
Water Resources Response to Changes in Temperature, Rainfall and CO2 Concentration: A First Approach in NW Spain
by Ricardo Arias, M. Luz Rodríguez-Blanco, M. Mercedes Taboada-Castro, Joao Pedro Nunes, Jan Jacob Keizer and M. Teresa Taboada-Castro
Water 2014, 6(10), 3049-3067; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6103049 - 13 Oct 2014
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 7489
Abstract
Assessment of the diverse responses of water resources to climate change and high concentrations of CO2 is crucial for the appropriate management of natural ecosystems. Despite numerous studies on the impact of climate change on different regions, it is still necessary to [...] Read more.
Assessment of the diverse responses of water resources to climate change and high concentrations of CO2 is crucial for the appropriate management of natural ecosystems. Despite numerous studies on the impact of climate change on different regions, it is still necessary to evaluate the impact of these changes at the local scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the potential impact of changes in temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration on water resources in a rural catchment in NW Spain for the periods 2031–2060 and 2069–2098, using 1981–2010 as a reference period. For the simulations we used compiled regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES project for future climate input data and two CO2 concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm). The results showed that changes in the concentration of CO2 and climate had a significant effect on water resources. Overall, the results suggest a decrease in streamflow of 16% for the period 2031–2060 (intermediate future) and 35% by the end of the 21st century as a consequence of decreasing rainfall (2031–2060: −6%; 2069–2098: −15%) and increasing temperature (2031–2060: 1.1 °C; 2069–2098: 2.2 °C). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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1091 KiB  
Article
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation over Lake Victoria, East Africa, in the 21st Century
by Mary Akurut, Patrick Willems and Charles B. Niwagaba
Water 2014, 6(9), 2634-2659; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6092634 - 29 Aug 2014
Cited by 37 | Viewed by 10689
Abstract
Precipitation over Lake Victoria in East Africa greatly influences its water balance. Over 30 million people rely on Lake Victoria for food, potable water, hydropower and transport. Projecting precipitation changes over the lake is vital in dealing with climate change impacts. The past [...] Read more.
Precipitation over Lake Victoria in East Africa greatly influences its water balance. Over 30 million people rely on Lake Victoria for food, potable water, hydropower and transport. Projecting precipitation changes over the lake is vital in dealing with climate change impacts. The past and future precipitation over the lake were assessed using 42 model runs obtained from 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two CMIP5 scenarios defined by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used to explore climate change impacts. The daily precipitation over Lake Victoria for the period 1962–2002 was compared with future projections for the 2040s and 2075s. The ability of GCMs to project daily, monthly and annual precipitation over the lake was evaluated based on the mean error, root mean square error and the frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation. Higher resolution models (grid size <1.5°) simulated monthly variations better than low resolution models (grid size >2.5°). The total annual precipitation is expected to increase by less than 10% for the RCP4.5 scenario and less than 20% for the RCP8.5 scenario over the 21st century, despite the higher (up to 40%) increase in extreme daily intensities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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2478 KiB  
Article
Tracking Inflows in Lake Wivenhoe during a Major Flood Using Optical Spectroscopy
by Rupak Aryal, Alistair Grinham and Simon Beecham
Water 2014, 6(8), 2339-2352; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6082339 - 07 Aug 2014
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 6493
Abstract
Lake Wivenhoe is the largest water storage reservoir in South-East Queensland and is the primary drinking water supply storage for over 600,000 people. The dam is dual purpose and was also designed to minimize flooding downstream in the city of Brisbane. In early [...] Read more.
Lake Wivenhoe is the largest water storage reservoir in South-East Queensland and is the primary drinking water supply storage for over 600,000 people. The dam is dual purpose and was also designed to minimize flooding downstream in the city of Brisbane. In early January, 2011, record inflows were experienced, and during this period, a large number of catchment pollutants entered the lake and rapidly changed the water quality, both spatially and vertically. Due to the dendritic nature of the storage, as well as multiple inflow points, it was likely that pollutant loads differed greatly depending on the water depth and location within the storage. The aim of this study was to better understand this variability in catchment loading, as well as water quality changes during the flood event. Water samples were collected at five locations during the flood period at three different depths (surface, mid-depth and bottom), and the samples were analysed using UV and fluorescence spectroscopy. Primary inflows were identified to persist into the mid-storage zone; however, a strong lateral inflow signature was identified from the mid-storage zone, which persisted to the dam wall outflow. These results illustrate the heterogeneity of inflows in water storages of this type, and this paper discusses the implication this has for the modelling and management of such events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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2219 KiB  
Article
Attribution of Decadal-Scale Lake-Level Trends in the Michigan-Huron System
by Janel Hanrahan, Paul Roebber and Sergey Kravtsov
Water 2014, 6(8), 2278-2299; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6082278 - 07 Aug 2014
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 6624
Abstract
This study disentangles causes of the Michigan-Huron system lake-level variability. Regional precipitation is identified as the primary driver of lake levels with sub-monthly time lag, implying that the lake-level time series can be used as a proxy for regional precipitation throughout most of [...] Read more.
This study disentangles causes of the Michigan-Huron system lake-level variability. Regional precipitation is identified as the primary driver of lake levels with sub-monthly time lag, implying that the lake-level time series can be used as a proxy for regional precipitation throughout most of the 1865–present instrumental record. Aside from secular variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the lake-level time series is dominated by two near-decadal cycles with periods of 8 and 12 years. A combination of correlation analysis and compositing suggests that the 8-y cycle stems from changes in daily wintertime precipitation amounts associated with individual storms, possibly due to large-scale atmospheric flow anomalies that affect moisture availability. In contrast, the 12-y cycle is caused by changes in the number of instances, or frequency, of summertime convective precipitation due to a preferred upper-air trough pattern situated over the Great Lakes. In recent decades, the lake-level budget exhibited an abnormal—relative to the remainder of the instrumental record—evaporation-driven trend, likely connected to regional signatures of anthropogenic climate change. The latter effect must be accounted for, along with the effects of precipitation, when assessing possible scenarios of future lake-level variability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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1287 KiB  
Article
Rainfall Enhances Vegetation Growth but Does the Reverse Hold?
by John Boland
Water 2014, 6(7), 2127-2143; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6072127 - 23 Jul 2014
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 5992
Abstract
In the literature, there is substantial evidence presented of enhancement of vegetation growth and regrowth with rainfall. There is also much research presented on the decline in rainfall with land clearance. This article deals with the well documented decline in rainfall in southwestWestern [...] Read more.
In the literature, there is substantial evidence presented of enhancement of vegetation growth and regrowth with rainfall. There is also much research presented on the decline in rainfall with land clearance. This article deals with the well documented decline in rainfall in southwestWestern Australia and discusses the literature that has been presented as to the rationale for the decline. The original view was that it was the result of climate change. More recent research points to the compounding effect of land use change. In particular, one study estimated, through simulation work with atmospheric models, that up to 50% of the decline could be attributed to land use change. For South Australia, there is an examination the pattern of rainfall decline in one particular region, using Cummins on the Eyre Peninsula as an example location. There is a statistically significant decrease in annual rainfall over time in that location. This is mirrored for the vast majority of locations studied in South Australia, most probably having the dual drivers of climate and land use change. Conversely, it is found that for two locations, Murray Bridge and Callington, southeast of Adelaide, there is marginal evidence for an increase in annual rainfall over the last two decades, during which, incidentally, Australia experienced the most severe drought in recorded history. The one feature common to these two locations is the proximity to the Monarto plateau, which lies between them. It was the site of extensive revegetation in the 1970s. It is conjectured that there could be a connection between the increase in rainfall and the revegetation, and there is evidence presented from a number of studies for such a connection, though not specifically relating to this location. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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499 KiB  
Article
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Colorado Agriculture Using an Equilibrium Displacement Mathematical Programming Model
by Eihab Fathelrahman, Amalia Davies, Stephen Davies and James Pritchett
Water 2014, 6(6), 1745-1770; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6061745 - 16 Jun 2014
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 7797
Abstract
This research models selected impacts of climate change on Colorado agriculture several decades in the future, using an Economic Displacement Mathematical Programming model. The agricultural economy in Colorado is dominated by livestock, which accounts for 67% of total receipts. Crops, including feed grains [...] Read more.
This research models selected impacts of climate change on Colorado agriculture several decades in the future, using an Economic Displacement Mathematical Programming model. The agricultural economy in Colorado is dominated by livestock, which accounts for 67% of total receipts. Crops, including feed grains and forages, account for the remainder. Most agriculture is based on irrigated production, which depends on both groundwater, especially from the Ogallala aquifer, and surface water that comes from runoff derived from snowpack in the Rocky Mountains. The analysis is composed of a Base simulation, designed to represent selected features of the agricultural economy several decades in the future, and then three alternative climatic scenarios are run. The Base starts with a reduction in agricultural water by 10.3% from increased municipal and industrial water demand, and assumes a 75% increase in corn extracted-ethanol production. From this, the first simulation (S1) reduces agricultural water availability by a further 14.0%, for a combined decrease of 24.3%, due to climatic factors and related groundwater depletion. The second simulation (S2-WET) describes wet year conditions, which negatively affect yields of irrigated corn and milking cows, but improves yields for important crops such as non-irrigated wheat and forages. In contrast, the third simulation (S3-DRY) describes a drought year, which leads to reduced dairy output and reduced corn and wheat. Consumer and producer surplus losses are approximately $10 million in this simulation. The simulation results also demonstrate the importance of the modeling trade when studying climate change in a small open economy, and of linking crop and livestock activities to quantify overall sector effects. This model has not taken into account farmers’ adaptation strategies, which would reduce the climate impact on yields, nor has it reflected climate-induced shifts in planting decisions and production practices that have environmental impacts or higher costs. It also focuses on a comparative statics approach to the analysis in order to identify several key effects of changes in water availability and yields, without having a large number of perhaps confounding assumptions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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2901 KiB  
Article
Climatic Characteristics of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Hai River Basin and Their Attribution
by Lingling Zhao, Jun Xia, Leszek Sobkowiak and Zongli Li
Water 2014, 6(6), 1482-1499; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6061482 - 28 May 2014
Cited by 29 | Viewed by 6713
Abstract
Based on the meteorological data from 46 stations in the Hai River Basin (HRB) from 1961–2010, the annual and seasonal variation of reference evapotranspiration was analyzed. The sensitivity coefficients combined with the detrend method were used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the [...] Read more.
Based on the meteorological data from 46 stations in the Hai River Basin (HRB) from 1961–2010, the annual and seasonal variation of reference evapotranspiration was analyzed. The sensitivity coefficients combined with the detrend method were used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The obtained results indicate that the annual reference evapotranspiration is dominated by the decreasing trends at the confidence level of 95% in the southern and eastern parts of the HRB. The sensitivity order of climatic variables to ETo from strong to weak is: relativity humidity, temperature, shortwave radiation and wind speed, respectively. However, comprehensively considering the sensitivity and its variation strength, the detrend analysis indicates that the decreasing trends of ETo in eastern and southern HRB may be caused mainly by the decreasing wind speed and shortwave radiation. As for the relationship between human activity and the trend of ETo, we found that ETo decreased more significantly on the plains than in the mountains. By contrast, the population density increased more considerably from 2000 to 2010 on the plains than in the mountains. Therefore, in this paper, the correlation of the spatial variation pattern between ETo and population was further analyzed. The spatial correlation coefficient between population and the trend of ETo is −0.132, while the spatial correlation coefficient between the trend of ETo and elevation, temperature, shortwave radiation and wind speed is 0.667, 0.668, 0.749 and 0.416, respectively. This suggests that human activity has a certain influence on the spatial variation of ETo, while natural factors play a decisive role in the spatial variation of reference evapotranspiration in this area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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1645 KiB  
Article
Assessing the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Salinity Intrusion and Transport Time Scales in a Tidal Estuary, Taiwan
by Wen-Cheng Liu and Hong-Ming Liu
Water 2014, 6(2), 324-344; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6020324 - 28 Jan 2014
Cited by 46 | Viewed by 10703
Abstract
Global climate change has resulted in a gradual sea level rise. Sea level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, thereby threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. In the present study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was established to [...] Read more.
Global climate change has resulted in a gradual sea level rise. Sea level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, thereby threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. In the present study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was established to simulate salinity distributions and transport time scales in the Wu River estuary of central Taiwan. The model was calibrated and verified using tidal amplitudes and phases, time-series water surface elevation and salinity distributions in 2011. The results show that the model simulation and measured data are in good agreement. The validated model was then applied to calculate the salinity distribution, flushing time and residence time in response to a sea level rise of 38.27 cm. We found that the flushing time for high flow under the present condition was lower compared to the sea level rise scenario and that the flushing time for low flow under the present condition was higher compared to the sea level rise scenario. The residence time for the present condition and the sea level rise scenario was between 10.51 and 34.23 h and between 17.11 and 38.92 h, respectively. The simulated results reveal that the residence time of the Wu River estuary will increase when the sea level rises. The distance of salinity intrusion in the Wu River estuary will increase and move further upstream when the sea level rises, resulting in the limited availability of water of suitable quality for municipal and industrial uses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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Review

Jump to: Research

438 KiB  
Review
Trends in Levels of Allochthonous Dissolved Organic Carbon in Natural Water: A Review of Potential Mechanisms under a Changing Climate
by Todd Pagano, Morgan Bida and Jonathan E. Kenny
Water 2014, 6(10), 2862-2897; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6102862 - 29 Sep 2014
Cited by 74 | Viewed by 21121
Abstract
Over the past several decades, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in inland natural water systems has been a popular research topic to a variety of scientific disciplines. Part of the attention has been due to observed changes in DOC concentrations in many of the [...] Read more.
Over the past several decades, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in inland natural water systems has been a popular research topic to a variety of scientific disciplines. Part of the attention has been due to observed changes in DOC concentrations in many of the water systems of the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in DOC levels, and changes in its composition, are of concern due to its significance in aquatic ecosystem functioning and its potential and realized negative effects on waters that might be treated for drinking purposes. While it may not be possible to establish sound cause and effect relationships using a limited number of drivers, through long-term DOC monitoring studies and a variety of laboratory/field experiments, several explanations for increasing DOC trends have been proposed, including two key mechanisms: decreased atmospheric acid deposition and the increasing impact of climate change agents. The purpose of this review is three-fold: to outline frequently discussed conceptual mechanisms used to explain DOC increases (especially under a changing climate), to discuss the structure of DOC and the impact of higher levels of DOC on drinking water resources, and to provide renewed/sustained interest in DOC research that can encourage interdisciplinary collaboration. Understanding the cycling of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems into natural waters is necessary in the face of a variable and changing climate, as climate change-related mechanisms may become increasingly responsible for variations in the inputs of allochthonous DOC concentrations in water. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Water Resources in a Variable and Changing Climate)
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