Search Results (20)

This article examines the role of managed ecosystems, and particularly forests, in achieving carbon neutrality in Russia. The range of estimates of Russia’s forests’ net carbon balance in different studies varies by up to 7 times. The. A comparison of Russia’s National GHG inventory data for 2023 and 2024 (with the latter showing 37% higher forest sequestration) is presented and explained. The possible changes in the Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy of Russia (LT LEDS) carbon neutrality scenario due to new land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) data in National GHG Inventory Document (NID) 2024 are discussed. It is demonstrated that the refined net carbon balance should not impact the mitigation ambition in the Russian forestry sector. An assessment of changes in the drafts of the Operational plan of the LT LEDS is presented and it is concluded that its structure and content have significantly improved; however, a delay in operationalization nullifies efforts. The article highlights the problem of GHG emissions increases in forest fires and compares the gap between official “ground-based” and Remote Sensing approaches in calculations of such emissions. Considering the intention to increase net absorption by implementing forest carbon projects, the latest changes in the regulations of such projects are discussed. The limitations of reforestation carbon projects in Russia are provided. Proposals are presented for the development of the national forest policy towards increasing the net forest carbon absorption, including considering the projected decrease in annual net absorption by Russian forests by 2050. The role of government and private investment in improving the forest management of structural measures to adapt forestry to modern climate change and the place of forest climate projects need to be clearly defined in the LT LEDS. Full article

The land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation; therefore, it is included in national and international climate change policies. However, renewable energy and bioeconomy development increase the demand for biomass for energy and material needs and challenge greenhouse gas (GHG) removal in LULUCF. Therefore, this study aims to analyze whether climate change mitigation and bioeconomy goals are compatible from an LULUCF perspective at the EU level. This study mainly covers the 2000–2020 period, looking at decoupling trends and LULUCF removal as well as estimating the substitution effect, which enables a broader view of the LULUCF GHG removal potential. The results reveal that decoupling is taking place at the EU level regarding economic growth and GHG, with a steady increase in renewables. The share of biomass in renewables is increasing at a slower pace, and the reduction in LULUCF GHG removal is proportionally lower compared to the pace of wood being harvested from forest land at the EU level. Still, biomass demand raises the pressure for LULUCF GHG removal, considering the sector itself is highly uncertain. Despite this, some possibilities to align climate and bioeconomy goals could remain, especially if the substitution effect is considered. Based on historical data, the estimated substitution effect is even higher (−367 mill. t CO₂ eq. on average in 2000–2020) than the sector’s removal (−300 mill. t CO₂ eq. on average in 2000–2020) and is dominated by material substitution (61%). Hence, LULUCF contributes to a reduction in GHG in other sectors, but it is still seldom acknowledged and not accounted for. Full article

Forests mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by capturing CO₂ and storing it as carbon in various forms, including living biomass, dead wood, soil, and forest litter. Importantly, when trees are harvested, a portion of the above-ground biomass is converted into harvested wood products (HWPs), which can retain carbon for decades. With approximately 7 million hectares of forest (30% of its land area), Romania significantly contributes to the country’s carbon budget through the HWP pool. Using country-specific data from 1961 to 2022 and an IPCC method, we tracked HWP carbon storage and projected future scenarios to evaluate the category’s significance in achieving the 2050 climate target. During this period, the carbon stored in Romanian HWPs more than doubled from 28.20 TgC to 60.76 TgC, with sawnwood products as major contributors. Fluctuations were influenced by domestic policies, market dynamics, and industry changes, notably after the 1990s. Annual carbon inflow dipped to 0.65 TgC in 1994 and peaked at 2.54 TgC in 2013. By analyzing the scenarios, we demonstrated that a moderate growth trajectory in carbon inflow, combined with a focus on producing long-lived wood products, could double carbon stock changes by 2050 to 4.4 TgC—roughly 4% of the country’s current total emissions excluding the LULUCF sector. Additionally, based on sustainable forest management practices in Romania, this approach would significantly enhance the carbon pool and its importance in achieving the country’s climate policies. Full article

Agroforestry systems are recognized as sustainable land use practices that foster environmental health and promote adaptive responses to global change. By harnessing the synergies between trees and agricultural activities, agroforestry systems provide multiple benefits, including soil conservation, biodiversity enhancement, and carbon sequestration. Windbreaks form integral elements of Hungarian agricultural landscapes, and the enhanced agroforestry subsidy framework might have a favorable impact on their expansion, underscoring the importance of evaluating their potential for carbon sequestration. In the present study, we assess the implications of doubling the extent of windbreak plantations in Hungary by planting an additional 14,256 hectares of windbreaks. We evaluate the total carbon sequestration and the annual climate change mitigation potential of the new plantations up to 2050. For the modeling, we use the recently developed Windbreak module of the Forest Industry Carbon Model, which is a yield table-based model specific to Hungary and allows for the estimation of living biomass, dead organic matter, and soil carbon balance. We project that new windbreak plantations will sequester 913 kt C by 2050, representing an average annual climate change mitigation potential of 144 kt CO₂ eq. Our findings reveal that doubling the extent of windbreak plantations could achieve an extra 5% carbon sequestration in forested areas as compared to business-as-usual (BAU) conditions. We conclude that new windbreak plantations on agricultural field boundaries have substantial climate change mitigation potential, underscoring agroforestry’s contribution to agricultural resilience and achieving Hungary’s climate goals set for the land-use (LULUCF) sector. Full article

As forest-based climate change mitigation has become a crucial element of international climate policy it is of increasing importance to understand the processes leading to the carbon offsetting capacity of the sector. In our study, we assessed the climate benefits of contrasting forest management strategies: decreasing harvest and enlarging the forest carbon stock, or increasing harvest to increase carbon uptake, wood product carbon pools, and substitution effects. We developed the Forest Industry Carbon Model (FICM) which is a new carbon accounting tool covering forest biomass, dead organic matter, soil, and harvested wood product pools, as well as avoided emissions through product and energy substitution. We modeled the carbon balance of the Hungarian forest industry under three different scenarios. In the business as usual (BAU) scenario, we assumed no changes in the current harvest and afforestation levels. In the extensification scenario, we assumed that the harvest and afforestation levels drop to half, while in the intensification scenario, we assumed an increase in afforestation, improved industrial wood assortments, and a gradual increase in logging, reaching the highest level as per sustainability criteria by 2050. Our results show that the intensification scenario is characterized by the largest net removals and the maximized product and energy substitution effects. By 2050, the net forest industry carbon balance reaches −8447 kt CO₂ eq under the BAU scenario, while −7011 kt CO₂ eq is reached under the extensification scenario and −22,135 kt CO₂ eq is reached under the intensification scenario. Although substitution effects are not accounted for under the land-based (LULUCF) sector in the greenhouse gas inventory, the emission reductions in the industry and energy sectors have beneficial effects on the national carbon balance. Modeling results show that the 2030 LULUCF greenhouse gas removal target set by EU legislation for Hungary is reached under the intensification scenario. To achieve this outcome, widespread innovation is needed in the wood sector. The modeling results show that nonutilization of forests can only be a very short-term solution; however, its favorable effects will be reversed by 2050 resulting in additional emissions compared to the BAU scenario. Full article

Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries. Full article

The land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as a source and a sink of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. Many academic journals have published papers on land use carbon emission or sink (LUCES), but LUCES reviews are relatively rare, which poses great challenges in accurately understanding the research progress and future prospects. This work analyzes the research characteristics, hotspots and future perspectives of LUCES research by using a bibliometric analysis (such as DDA, VOSviewer, CiteSpace software) and a review based on the data (6115 scientific papers) during 1991–2023 from the Web of Science (WoS) platform. We found that (1) over the past 33 years, it first presented a steady growth, then fluctuating growth, and finally a rapid growth trend in the yearly number of publications in LUCES research. The USA (17.31%), China (14.96%), and the UK (7.37%) occupy a dominant position in this research field. (2) The related LUCES research is interdisciplinary, which mainly cover science and technology, meteorology and atmospheric sciences, geology, and environmental sciences and ecology disciplines. (3) The research hotspot analysis on LUCES shows that these articles mostly covered the follow three aspects: ecosystem services, climate change, and carbon neutrality. (4) A review of the past LUCES literature suggests that it is mainly focused on exploring the forefront issues in terms of the definition and boundaries, evaluation method and influencing factors, etc. This work suggests that further research could explore the main scientific problems on quantification of land-based carbon neutrality, quantitative analysis of the impact mechanisms, as well as interdisciplinary research and collaborative governance needed for carbon neutrality. Full article

The land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is receiving increasing attention in climate change mitigation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission offsetting. The sector itself and measures applied to mobilize this sector in order to tackle climate change are dominant in nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement as well as in national strategies, as in the case of Lithuania. Lithuania has set the goal of becoming a carbon-neutral country in 2050, reducing GHGs by 80% compared to 1990 and offsetting the remaining 20% through the LULUCF sector. Therefore, this paper aims at analyzing historical land-use changes in 1990–2021, as reported for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat, and LULUCF’s potential to achieve climate change mitigation goals, taking into account different land-use change scenarios (business as usual, forest development, forest development + additional measures and forest land 40% + additional measures) for 2030 and 2050 in Lithuania. The scenarios are based on historical and potential future policy-based land-use changes. Projections of GHG emissions/removals for different scenarios are prepared according to the Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that land-use changes over the period 1990–2021 remained rather stable, with some increases in forest area and grassland at the expense of cropland. The whole LULUCF sector acted as a carbon sink in most cases, forests being a key category for removal. However, reaching climate neutrality in 2050 might be challenging, as the goal to offset 20% of remaining GHG emission compared to 1990 through LULUCF would not be met in any of the scenarios analyzed, even the scenario of maximal forest-area development and additional measures. Considering the high historical GHG-removal fluctuations and the uncertainties of the sector itself, caution should be taken when relying on LULUCF’s potential to reach the set goals. Full article

Histosols cover about 8–10% of Lithuania’s territory and most of this area is covered with nutrient-rich organic soils (Terric Histosols). Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from drained Histosols contribute more than 25% of emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector. In this study, as the first step of examining the carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes in these soils, total soil CO₂ efflux and several environmental parameters (temperature of air and topsoil, soil chemical composition, soil moisture, and water table level) were measured in drained Terric Histosols under three native forest stands and perennial grasslands in the growing seasons of 2020 and 2021. The drained nutrient-rich organic soils differed in terms of concentrations of soil organic carbon and total nitrogen, as well as soil organic carbon and total nitrogen ratio. The highest rate of total soil CO₂ efflux was found in the summer months. Overall, the rate was statistically significant and strongly correlated only with soil and air temperature. A trend emerged that total soil CO₂ efflux was 30% higher in perennial grassland than in forested land. Additional work is still needed to estimate the net CO₂ balance of these soils. Full article

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH${}_4$), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH${}_4$ emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH${}_4$ emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH${}_4$ emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH${}_4$. Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH${}_4$ emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH${}_4$ emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories. Full article

Huge amounts of carbon being sequestered in forest ecosystems make them an important land carbon sink at the global scale. Their ability to withdraw carbon dioxide (CO${}_2$) from the atmosphere, whose concentration is gradually increasing due to anthropogenic emissions, renders them important natural climate-mitigation solutions. The urgent need for transition from high to zero net emission on country, continental, and global scales, to slow down the warming to an acceptable level, calls for the analysis of different economic sectors’ roles in reaching that ambitious goal. Here, we examine changes in CO${}_2$ emission and sequestration rates during recent decades focusing on the coal-dominated energy sector and Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) as well as wood production at the country level. The main purpose of the presented study is to examine the potential of storing carbon in standing forest biomass and wood products in Poland as well as the impact of disturbances. The ratio of LULUCF absorption of CO${}_2$ to its emission in Poland has ranged from about 1% in 1992 to over 15% in 2005. From a climate-change mitigation point of view, the main challenge is how to maximize the rate and the duration of CO${}_2$ withdrawal from the atmosphere by its storage in forest biomass and wood products. Enhancing carbon sequestration and storage in forest biomass, via sustainable and smart forestry, is considered to be a nature-based climate solution. However, not only forests but also wood-processing industries should be included as important contributors to climate-change mitigation, since harvested wood products substitute materials like concrete, metal, and plastic, which have a higher carbon footprint. The energy perspective of the paper embraces two aspects. First, CO${}_2$ sequestration in forests and subsequently in harvested wood products, is an effective strategy to offset a part of national CO${}_2$ emissions, resulting largely from fossil fuel burning for energy-production purposes. Second, wood as biomass is a renewable energy source itself, which played an important role in sustaining energy security for many individual citizens of Poland during the unusual conditions of winter 2022/2023, with a scarce coal supply. Full article

Over the years, various methods for estimating and projecting forest resources have been developed and are used by countries where the forest sector is important. Therefore, the obligation to report and account for forest resources, including changes in carbon stocks in a forest area, has gained attention. The latest regulations (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry—LULUCF) requires European Union (EU) members to annually report and publish national accounting plans estimating emissions and removals from managed forest areas (Regulation EU 2018/841). The major challenge is to choose and adapt a unique tool for this accounting. At the same time, they need to provide reliable estimates that are recognized by regulators and control authorities. This study focuses on comparing the adaptation of two accounting frameworks: the Operational-Scale Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) and the European Forest Dynamics Model (EFDM). Both tools are based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. It is assumed that the EFDM can provide similar results to the CBM-CFS3, which is already used in Poland. Implementing the EFDM and adapting it to Polish conditions could facilitate forest management decision-making and the preparation of forest policies. The main objective of this study was to compare and validate the accuracy of the results obtained with the EFDM framework. Metrics compared using both tools included growing stock volume, biomass of growing stock expressed in carbon units and age–class distribution over area. The comparison was based on the agreement of EFDM with CBM-CFS3 results. The volume of logging was taken from the EFDM and compared with the values obtained by Statistics Poland. This study also provides a guide for framework parameterization directly from the Polish National Forest Inventory data from the 2010–2015 cycle. Our main findings are that the results of the two models are reasonably comparable (the extent of deviation is acceptable). Moreover, the first implementation of the EFDM showed that it is an easy-to-use open-source program that allows forest managers to implement their own settings according to their needs. This document elucidates the concept of using both frameworks under Polish conditions and provides an impression of their performance for future modelers, students and researchers. Full article

Mitigating climate change is a challenge that urgently needs to be addressed, as it has an increasing impact on the planet. According to the latest reports, global CO₂ emissions must be neutralized by 2050 in order to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5 °C. This work presents the evolution of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions/removals at the EU-27 + UK level for the 1990–2019 time period, as well as LULUCF emissions/removals forecasts for Romania up to 2040. The results revealed a 23% reduction in GHG emissions for the EU-27 + UK in 2019 compared to 1990. Romania’s yearly average of GHG emissions/removals was 28,000 kt CO₂ eq., representing roughly 9.7% of the EU’s annual average. In terms of projections for Romania, the only scenario that will not be in the target set by the new LULUCF Regulation is WEM (Reference Scenario/With Existing Measures), in which net GHG removals will be reduced by approximately 218 kt CO₂ eq., or 0.9 percent, in 2030 compared to the reference year; in 2040 compared to 1989, the trend will be accentuated both in absolute values, with a decrease of over 3000 kt CO₂ eq., and in relative values of 12%. Full article

China has implemented many green transition policies to reach its carbon peak target, some of which do not consider the actual carbon reduction pressures that localities can afford, thus lowering the living standards of residents and economic growth, which makes the green transition process unsustainable. The Yellow River Basin plays an important role in China’s energy, food, manufacturing, and ecological sectors. Thus, the design of green transition policies in the region needs to be modest and efficient. Based on the data of 100 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2017, this paper uses the K-means clustering to divide the carbon reduction potential of cities into four types. Most cities’ carbon reduction potentials are low or medium, unsuitable for adopting a rapid green transition. Based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition results and the carbon reduction potential, we designed different carbon-control pathways: Shandong and Henan should focus on increasing investment in green technology, especially oxy-combustion technology; Gansu, Ningxia, and Qinghai could partially offset carbon emissions through land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities; Sichuan and Inner Mongolia should increase their energy-use efficiency; Shaanxi and Shanxi could use green finance to complete the upgrading of local industries. The above emission-reduction strategies can be actively pursued in cities with high emission reduction potential and should be implemented with caution in cities with low emission reduction potential. This paper provides a new and cost-effective perspective on carbon emission control in the Yellow River Basin. Full article

Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) is a greenhouse gas inventory sector that evaluates greenhouse gas changes in the atmosphere from land use and land-use change. This study focuses on the development of a Sentinel-2 data classification according to the LULUCF requirements on the cloud-based platform Google Earth Engine (GEE). The methods are tested in selected larger territorial regions (two Czech NUTS 2 units) using data collected in 2018. The Random Forest method was used for classification. In terms of classification accuracy, a combination of these parameters was tested: The Number of Trees (NT), the Variables per Split (VPS) and the Bag Fraction (BF). A total of 450 combinations of different parameters were tested. The highest accuracy classification with an overall accuracy = 89.1% and Cohen’s Kappa = 0.84 had the following combination: NT = 150, VPS = 3 and BF = 0.1. For classification purposes, a mosaic was created using the median method. The resulting mosaic consisted of all Sentinel-2 bands in 10 and 20 m spatial resolution. Altitude values derived from SRTM and NDVI variance values were also included in the classification. These added bands were the most significant in terms of Gini importance. Full article