Search Results (28)

In response to the challenges of urbanization, digitalization, and the e-commerce surge intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic, Smart Urban Logistics (SUL) has become a key framework for addressing last-mile delivery issues, congestion, and environmental impacts. This study introduces a System Dynamics (SD)-based approach to investigate how urban logistics and access management policies may interact. At the center, there is a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) that illustrates dynamic interdependencies among fleet composition, access regulations, logistics productivity, and environmental externalities. The CLD is a conceptual basis for future stock-and-flow simulations to support data-driven decision-making. The approach highlights the importance of route optimization, dynamic access control, and smart parking management systems as strategic tools, increasingly enabled by Industry 4.0 technologies, such as IoT, big data analytics, AI, and cyber-physical systems, which support real-time monitoring and adaptive planning. In alignment with the Industry 5.0 paradigm, this technological integration is paired with social and environmental sustainability goals. The study also emphasizes public–private collaboration in designing access policies and promoting alternative fuel vehicle adoption, supported by specific incentives. These coordinated efforts contribute to achieving the objectives of the 2030 Agenda, fostering a cleaner, more efficient, and inclusive urban logistics ecosystem. Full article

The building sector holds significant potential to mitigate climate change by adopting the circular economy. However, its transition is impeded by fragmented stakeholder engagement arising from complex socio-organisational dynamics. To address this, this article adopted the system dynamics (SD) modelling tool, which enables structured visualisation of the system while exploring and assessing stakeholder dynamics. The three-stage methodological approach includes the following: problem identification, building on the author’s prior publication, which identified the variables and their direct relationships; system conceptualisation, where the causal loop diagram was developed, followed by the identification of feedback loops, construction of the stock-flow diagram, and ultimately the SD model to capture indirect relationships; and model optimisation, which calibrated the SD model based on real-world circular building scenarios. The results revealed the stakeholder dynamics through their associated concerns. The results indicated that leveraging stakeholder dynamics within the complex system could foster collective action from fragmentation to enable the effective circular economy transition. This article proposes general and phase-specific actions tailored to each stakeholder, offering a structured framework for coordinated decision-making. These actions help bridge the gap between theory and practice, facilitating the sector’s transition from its current linear model toward a more collaborative and circular approach to climate change mitigation. Full article

Groundwater, a crucial natural resource on a global scale, plays a significant role in Texas, impacting various essential ecosystem services either directly or indirectly. Despite efforts of state- and community-level regulations and conservation efforts, there is an ongoing trend of declining groundwater levels in the state of Texas. In this study, we utilized the systems thinking and system dynamics modeling approach to better understand this problem and investigate possible leverage points to achieve more sustainable groundwater resource levels. After conceptualizing a causal loop diagram (CLD) of the underlying feedback structure of the issue (informed by the existing literature), a small system dynamics (SD) model was developed to connect the feedback factors identified in the CLD to the stocks (groundwater level) and flows (recharge rate and groundwater pumping) that steer the behaviors of groundwater systems across time. After completing model assessment, experimental simulations were conducted to evaluate the current state relative to simulated treatments for improved irrigation efficiency, restricted pumping rates, cooperative conservation protocols among users, and combination strategy (of all treatments above) in the long-term. Results showed that groundwater stress (and the associated repercussions on related ecosystem service) could be alleviated with a combination strategy, albeit without complete groundwater level recovery. Full article

A cold-chain meat packaging project was developed for a meat product company in northwestern Mexico that moves high volumes of fresh meat into national and international markets. The objective of the present research is to evaluate the supply process for three types of thermo-shrinkable polyethylene bags to provide a technological solution for high-volume meat packaging based on a graphical user interface. A system dynamics (SD) methodology is developed in seven stages to generate a technological solution: (1) system mapping; (2) causal diagram construction; (3) stock, flow modeling, and equations; (4) model simulation; (5) model validation; (6) scenarios and multicriteria analysis; and (7) graphical user interface development. The main result for the company was a technological solution that could communicate with decision-makers and the proposed graphical user interface. Future optimistic and pessimistic scenarios were self-evaluated based on the current situation related to three thermo-shrinkable bags used for selling high volumes of fresh meat. In these solutions, previously simulated costs and savings can be implemented in a real situation. Quantitative graphical user interface data can be observed to adequately manage box and bag inventories and minimize costs. Using SD enables the development of technological solutions in complex environments with robust simulations and models that offer data to people interested in the system under study. Full article

Traditional airport development planning often overlooks an in-depth consideration of the airport operation life cycle, which frequently causes deviations from planned objectives during operation. This paper presents a framework for predicting and segmenting the airport operation life cycle by integrating the dynamic characteristics of the System Dynamics (SD) model with the static properties of Logistic modeling to examine the development trajectory of airport operations. The influencing factors in this model are selected across three levels: airport, city, and macro-environment. A system dynamics model of airport operation is constructed using causal loop diagrams and system flow diagrams. Using Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN) as a case study, the airport’s operational capacity from 2005 to 2035 is predicted through SD simulation. Subsequently, the airport operation life cycle from 2005 to 2050 is forecasted and segmented using Logistic modeling. The results indicate that, under the standard scenario, CAN’s operational capacity experiences two declines in 2016 and 2020, attributed to airport construction and emergencies. Logistic modeling identifies three distinct life cycle phases in the airport’s operation. Furthermore, by comparing various airport operation scenarios, the analysis reveals that fluctuations in the city economy significantly impact the airport’s operational system without altering its overall development trajectory. In contrast, the occurrence of emergencies can substantially modify the airport operation life cycle. Full article

Sustainable development (SD) is of prime importance in the present world, where resources are depleting fast and causing conflicts among nations to control essential resources. Since the construction industry (CI) consumes most of these resources, Construction Sustainability (CS) is a key focus of SD. Among the three pillars of sustainability, i.e., economic, environmental, and social, the first two have been amply addressed by researchers. However, the social aspects have been neglected or under-researched so far. The current research humbly attempts to fill this gap. Accordingly, a System Dynamics Model (SDM) has been developed to address this issue. After a comprehensive literature review, questionnaire survey, content analysis, and gathering the opinions of ten experts from CI, 11 key factors of social CS were identified. Using the system thinking approach, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was developed to assess the intensity and polarity of these factors. The CLD encompassed eight reinforcing loops and one balancing loop. Based on the CLD, an SDM was developed and simulated over 3 years. Primarily, the SDM had two stocks: “Government support for sustainable construction” and “Stakeholder awareness and knowledge”. An additional stock named “Construction Sustainability” was added to observe the combined effect of the system. The results showed that CS increased over time. The CLD and resulting SDM help in understanding the complex interaction of the social CS factors and thereby addressing the associated complexity of the effects of these varied factors on a project. Such knowledge can be valuable for anyone dealing with projects where social factors play a significant role. The proposed SDM provides a structured approach to understanding and visualizing the intricate relationships and feedback loops within a social system, aiding in more effective decision making and problem solving. Full article

The discourse surrounding digital transformation (DT) and sustainable development (SD) is pervasive in contemporary business and organizational operations, with both processes considered indispensable for sustainability. The success or failure of these endeavors hinges significantly on factors such as the behavior and skill sets of individuals within organizations. Thus, the purpose of the paper is twofold: to investigate the perceptions of organizations on digital transformation and sustainable development with regards to skills and education, and, secondly, to use the insights from these perceptions as a starting point for the use of systems thinking as a tool that could assist in achieving these states. To achieve the objective, a research effort was conducted that included desktop research, interviews with experts, and the development of a survey that was disseminated across Europe with questions on digital transformation and sustainable development. Finally, a general causal loop diagram was designed, illustrating the processes of digital transformation and sustainable development within organizations from a top-down view. The study reveals commonalities between DT and SD, recognizing both processes as advantageous with shared deficiencies in specific skill sets. It highlights a synergistic relationship between initiating DT and fostering SD activities. Furthermore, the research underscores the temporal aspects of these processes, acknowledging delayed positive effects and immediate implementation costs that challenge decision-makers to balance long-term benefits with short-term viability. In conclusion, the exploration emphasizes the dynamic nature of DT and SD, urging continual attention to the evolving landscape and the imperative for a shared understanding within organizational contexts. Full article

Background: A hospital’s operating theater service system is a large-scale, complicated system that must be carefully managed to offer the best possible results for its patients. Unlike other industries such as manufacturing and logistics, system dynamics (SD) methodologies are not extensively applied in hospital operating theaters. This study deals with the future development and possible future scenarios for hospital operating rooms in Bangladesh. Methods: Due to demographic dynamics and demographic processes, increased pressures on hospital care are expected in Bangladesh. The SD model anticipates possible future scenarios, reconciles service capacities and the variability of patient demand, and reduces patient congestion and waiting times in the hospital area. This study introduces a causal loop diagram to show a causal link between the hospital operating theater system variables. It also introduces a stock flow diagram to understand the dynamic behavior of the system. Results: The model validation testing reports that in extreme conditions, such as a 50% reduction in the patient arrival rate, the model is valid and runs as usual. Conclusions: This first work of SD modeling for hospital operating theater systems can help healthcare managers, decision makers, or researchers of any responsibility level make better predictions in order to reduce patient waiting times and backlogs and make appropriate decisions. Full article

Given the growing importance of system dynamics (SD) in solving increasingly complex and dynamic problems in any country, we believe SD education will become an imperative leverage point in helping us deal with our uncertain future. This study tries to understand the causal relationships in proliferating SD education by a system dynamics group modelling approach in China. Based on a questionnaire survey and a group model building (GMB) workshop, we aim to explore the interactions of feedback loops in the constructed causal loop diagram (CLD). This uncovers insights into what constitutes the growth of SD education in China and helps to guide the design and implementation of policies to achieve this growth. We conclude that it is important and relevant to find ways to improve, including the construction of an SD teaching platform to integrate normative resources, providing opportunities for teacher training, enhancing the availability and accessibility of SD education, and building networks with international partners. The results of our study may set the foundation for further research to extend the generalizability of our insights and methodological approaches to other countries. Full article

Tunnel construction is characterized by its large scale, long periods and vulnerability to environmental impact, which pose great challenges to tunnel construction safety. In order to analyze the coupling mechanism of tunnel construction safety risks and assess these risks, we conducted a study on the coupling evaluation of these risks in order to improve tunnel construction safety risk management. By analyzing 150 accident cases related to tunnel construction safety, an N-K model (natural killing model) was constructed to quantify the risk level of each coupling form from four aspects—personnel risk factors, equipment risk factors, environmental risk factors and management risk factors—and the SD (system dynamics) causality diagram was used to construct risk element conduction paths and identify the key influencing factors of different coupling forms. The research results show that with the increase in risk coupling factors, the risk of tunnel construction safety accidents also increases; weak personnel safety awareness, aging and wear of equipment, poor operating environment and construction site management chaos are the key risk factors whose prevention needs to be focused on. The related research results can provide a new method for decision makers to assess tunnel construction safety risks and enrich the research on tunnel construction safety risk management. Full article

Due to the increased globalization and the disruptions caused by pandemics, supply chains (SCs) are becoming more complex in all industries. Such increased complexities of the SCs bring in more risks. The construction industry is no exception; its SC has been disrupted in line with its industrial counterparts. Therefore, it is important to manage the complexities in integrating SC risks and resilient capabilities (RCs) to enable a resilient SC in construction. This study investigated the complexity involved in the dynamics of effects between organizations’ SC risks and RCs to overcome disruptive events. Past researchers investigated how to improve the performance of construction projects, regardless of the complexities and interdependencies associated with the risks across the entire SC. However, the system dynamics (SD) approach to describe the diversity of construction SCs under risks has received limited attention indicating a research gap pursued by this study. This work aimed to analyze and establish interconnectivity and functionality amongst the construction SC risks and RCs using systems thinking (ST) and SD modeling approach. The SD technique is used to assess the complexity and integrated effect of SC risks on construction projects to enhance their resilience. The risks and RCs were identified by critically scrutinizing the literature and were then ranked through content analysis. Questionnaire surveys and expert opinions (involving 10 experts) helped develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and SD models with simulations to assess complexity qualitatively and quantitatively within the system. Research reveals that construction organizations are more vulnerable to health pandemics, budget overruns, poor information coordination, insufficient management oversight, and error visibility to stakeholders. Further, the most effective RCs include assets visibility, collaborative information exchange, business intelligence gatherings, alternative suppliers, and inventory management systems. This research helps industry practitioners identify and plan for various risks and RCs within their organizations and SCs. Furthermore, it helps understand trade-offs between suitable RCs to abate essential risks and develop preparedness against disruptions to improve organizational policymaking, project efficiency, and performance. Full article

Construction is a resource-intensive industry where a circular economy (CE) is essential to minimize global impacts and conserve natural resources. A CE achieves long-term sustainability by enabling materials to circulate along the critical supply chains. Accordingly, recent research has proposed a paradigm shift towards CE-based sustainability. However, uncertainties caused by fluctuating raw material prices, scarce materials, increasing demand, consumers’ expectations, lack of proper waste infrastructure, and the use of wrong recycling technologies all lead to complexities in the construction industry (CI). This research paper aims to determine the enablers of a CE for sustainable development in the CI. The system dynamics (SD) approach is utilized for modeling and simulation purposes to address the associated process complexity. First, using content analysis of pertinent literature, ten enablers of a CE for sustainable development in CI were identified. Then, causality among these enablers was identified via interviews and questionnaire surveys, leading to the development of the causal loop diagram (CLD) using systems thinking. The CLD for the 10 shortlisted enablers shows five reinforcing loops and one balancing loop. Furthermore, the CLD was used to develop an SD model with two stocks: “Organizational Incentive Schemes” and “Policy Support.” An additional stock (“Sustainable Development”) was created to determine the combined effect of all stocks. The model was simulated for five years. The findings show that policy support and organizational incentive schemes, among other enablers, are critical in implementing a CE for sustainable development in CI. The outcomes of this study can help CI practitioners to implement a CE in a way that drives innovation, boosts economic growth, and improves competitiveness. Full article

Construction processes are complex and dynamic. Like its other components, the construction supply chain (CSC) involves multiple stakeholders requiring varying levels of information sharing. In addition, the intensity and diversity of information in CSCs require dexterous management. Studies reveal that information complexity can be reduced using collaborative technologies (CTs). However, the barriers to information management (IM) hinder the CTs’ adoption process and cause complexity in CSCs. This research identifies barriers to IM and factors affecting the adoption of CTs in developing countries. In order to understand and address complexity, the system dynamics (SD) approach is adopted in this study. The aim is to investigate if SD can reduce information complexity using CTs. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed to understand the relationship between the IM barriers and CT adoption factors. The SD model, when simulated, highlighted three main components, i.e., complexity, top management support, and trust and cooperation, among others, as factors affecting the adoption of CTs. Addressing these factors will reduce information complexity and result in better IM in construction projects. Full article

This study addressed the complexity involved in integrating the causative risk factors influencing construction profitability. Most of the existing studies cover the individual effects of profitability influencing factors. Very few focus on the systematic impact without incorporating the complexity and associated dynamics, presenting a gap targeted by the current study. The current study aimed to assess causative interrelations and interdependencies between profitability influencing risk factors (PIRF), through systems thinking (ST) and system dynamics (SD) modeling. The SD approach was used to evaluate the integrated impacts on profitability-influencing risk categories (PIRC) in construction projects. The causative influencing factors affecting construction profitability were identified through a comprehensive literature review. These were ranked using content analysis, and categorized into significant issues. Through 250 structured surveys and 15 expert opinion meetings, the path for quantitative and qualitative evaluations was prepared. Following these investigations, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was established using the ST technique, and the integrated effect was quantified using SD modeling. The study finds the rising cost of material, supply chain process, payment issues, planning and scheduling problems, financial difficulties, and effective control of manpower and equipment resources as the most critical PIRFs. The integrated effects of PIRFs on PIRC were quantified using SD modeling. This study helps field professionals with profitability-influencing factors, diagnosing issues, and integrating impacts regarding decision-making and policy formulation. For researchers, it presents a list of factors that can be investigated in detail, and the holistic interrelationships established. Full article

Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) provides the fundamental conditions for airport development and operation activities. The prediction of AECC is a necessary condition for planning an appropriate development mode for the airport. This paper studies the dynamic prediction method of the AECC to explore the development characteristics of AECC in different airports. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) framework, the method selects 17 main variables from economic, social, environmental and operational dimensions, and then combines the drawing of causal loop diagrams and the establishment of system flow diagrams to construct the system dynamics (SD) model of AECC. The predicted values of AECC are obtained through SD model simulation and accelerated genetic algorithm projection pursuit (AGA-PP) model calculation. Considering sustainable development needs, different scenarios are set to analyze the appropriate development mode of the airport. The case study of the Pearl River Delta airports resulted in two main conclusions. First, in the same economic zone, different airports with similar aircraft movements have similar development characteristics of AECC. Second, the appropriate development modes for different airports are different, and the appropriate development modes for the airport in different periods are also different. The case study also proves that the AECC prediction based on SD model and AGA-PP model can realize short-term policy formulation and long-term planning for the airport development mode, and provide decision-making support for relevant departments of airport. Full article