Search Results (206)

The interplay between land availability and the housing market highlights the importance of government intervention through land policies. Effective land policies ensure in-time land availability and facilitate private sector involvement in housing development. This study examines how public land policies influence formal housing development by the private sector, with a particular focus on land banking strategies—mechanisms involving the acquisition and holding of land for future use to ensure availability and capture value increases. While land banking policy aims to serve public benefits, private-sector land banking often prioritizes profit, creating governance challenges that shape housing development outcomes. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the context of Indonesia by developing analytical framework of legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency, and fairness. As a rapidly growing country with significant housing backlogs and a private-sector-dominated market, Indonesia’s land regulations present a critical case for examining these dynamics. Our analysis shows that while regulatory framework regulations emphasize land consolidation, acquisition, and development as instruments to facilitate private sector involvement in housing development, weak enforcement and regulatory ambiguities often undermine their effectiveness. The findings indicate that private-sector land banking is largely speculative, driven by profit-maximization strategies rather than housing provision, and is reinforced by inconsistent policy enforcement at the municipal level. A municipal case study further illustrates how governance challenges and discretionary compliance allow private developers to prioritize profitability over the affordable housing needs outlined in public policies. While land policies in Indonesia are framed as comprehensive planning tools, their implementation often favors specific beneficiaries, limiting their broader social impact. Full article

This study examines how media outlets perceive and frame environmental issues, focusing specifically on South Korean news reporting on the Fukushima wastewater release. Using computational text analysis methods and formal statistical testing, this research investigates ideological polarization in media framing and its implications for risk perception. Statistical analyses provide significant evidence that progressive media emphasized environmental risks, public health concerns, and governmental accountability, whereas conservative media highlighted political actors, institutional governance, and diplomatic considerations. Media polarization peaked before policy implementation but moderated afterward. After implementation, moderate newspapers exhibited ideological convergence toward the center, accounting for a substantial portion of the observed positioning shifts, while strongly partisan outlets maintained or slightly intensified their prior positions. These results suggest that ideological polarization is most prominent in the early stages of contentious environmental policies but moderates as empirical scrutiny replaces speculation, with varying effects across ideological groups. This study provides insights into the temporal dynamics of media polarization and its role in shaping risk perception during policy implementation and regulatory oversight. Full article

Financial assets often exhibit explosive price surges followed by abrupt collapses, alongside persistent volatility clustering. Motivated by these features, we introduce a mixed causal–noncausal invertible–noninvertible autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MARMA–GARCH) model. Unlike standard ARMA processes, our model admits roots inside the unit disk, capturing bubble-like episodes and speculative feedback, while the GARCH component explains time-varying volatility. We propose two estimation approaches: (i) Whittle-based frequency-domain methods, which are asymptotically equivalent to Gaussian likelihood under stationarity and finite variance, and (ii) time-domain maximum likelihood, which proves to be more robust to heavy tails and skewness—common in financial returns. To identify causal vs. noncausal structures, we develop a higher-order diagnostics procedure using spectral densities and residual-based tests. Simulation results reveal that overlooking noncausality biases GARCH parameters, downplaying short-run volatility reactions to news ($\alpha$) while overstating volatility persistence ($\beta$). Our empirical application to Bitcoin and Ethereum enhances these insights: we find significant noncausal dynamics in the mean, paired with pronounced GARCH effects in the variance. Imposing a purely causal ARMA specification leads to systematically misspecified volatility estimates, potentially underestimating market risks. Our results emphasize the importance of relaxing the usual causality and invertibility assumption for assets prone to extreme price movements, ultimately improving risk metrics and expanding our understanding of financial market dynamics. Full article

Policy incentives and technological advancements are driving the rapid expansion of renewable energy industries. However, as speculative investment intensifies, concerns about the potential formation of financial bubbles are growing. This paper examines financial saturation in renewable energy markets, emphasizing key bifurcation and overheating thresholds that indicate speculative risks. Using a financial saturation model, the study evaluates market overheating across three major renewable energy sectors—solar PV, wind energy, and battery storage—based on a scenario analysis from Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2024. The findings reveal that battery storage is the most susceptible to speculative investment, with bifurcation (~70% market saturation) projected by 2031 (medium term) and by 2038 (long term) under the Net-Zero Scenario (NZS), and by 2042 under the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS). In the long term, financial overheating (~90% market saturation) in battery storage is projected by 2048 under the ETS. Solar PV also faces speculative risks, with bifurcation expected by 2030 (ETS, medium term), 2039 (ETS, long term), and 2041 (NZS, long term). Overheating in the solar sector is projected by 2048 (ETS, long term) and 2050 (NZS, long term). Wind energy exhibits a more gradual saturation pattern, with bifurcation expected by 2031 (ETS, medium term), 2038 (ETS, long term), and 2045 (NZS, long term), while overheating is anticipated by 2049 (ETS, long term). These findings highlight the need for regulatory oversight to mitigate speculative investment risks. To enhance financial stability, policy recommendations include gradual subsidy phase-outs, financial stress testing, and diversified investment strategies. Maintaining a stable investment environment is essential for long-term climate goals and energy security. Full article

Capirona macrophylla is a Rubiaceae known as “mulateiro”. Ethnobotanical extracts have been used for skin treatment and in the management of leishmaniasis and malaria. Objectives: The metabolites in aqueous extracts from wood bark, leaves, and stems were identified, and their in silico docking and in vitro cellular efficacy against Leishmania amazonensis and Plasmodium falciparum were evaluated. Methods: The extracts were analyzed by UHPLC/HRMSⁿ using untargeted metabolomics approach with MSDial, MSFinder, and GNPS software for metabolite identification and spectra clustering. The most abundant metabolites underwent molecular docking using AutoDock via PyRx, targeting the dihydroorotate dehydrogenase from Leishmania and P. falciparum, and evaluated through molecular dynamics simulations using Gromacs. In vitro biological assays were conducted on 60 HPLC-fractions against these parasites. Results: Metabolomics analysis identified 5100 metabolites in ESI+ and 2839 in ESI− spectra among the “mulateiro” samples. GNPS clustering highlighted large clusters of quercetin and chlorogenic acid groups. The most abundant metabolites were isofraxidin, scopoletin, 5(S)-5-carboxystrictosidine, loliolide, quercetin, quinic acid, caffeoylquinic acid (and isomers), chlorogenic acid, neochlorogenic acid, tryptophan, N-acetyltryptophan, epicatechin, procyanidin, and kaempferol-3-O-robinoside-7-O-rhamnoside. Molecular docking pointed to 3,4-dicaffeoylquinic acid and kaempferol as promising inhibitors. The in vitro assays yielded four active HPLC-fractions against L. amazonensis with IC50 values ranging from 175.2 μg/mL to 194.8 μg/mL, and fraction G29 showed an IC50 of 119.8 μg/mL against P. falciparum. Conclusions: The ethnobotanical use of “mulateiro” wood bark tea as an antimalarial and antileishmanial agent was confirmed through in vitro assays. We speculate that these activities are attributed to linoleic acids and quinic acids. Full article

To enhance the security and supervision of emergency materials from their source to transport, thus preventing safety incidents, a tripartite evolution model integrating the government, material production enterprises, and logistics entities is proposed. This model, situated within the framework of a government-established blockchain platform, combines evolutionary game theory and prospect theory. It examines the strategy evolution of emergency material’s security subjects amid diverse government reward punishment measures and enterprise risk perceptions. Our findings indicate that employing dynamic reward–punishment measures not only conserves government regulatory resources but also incentivizes enterprises to enhance the quality of emergency materials security. This dynamic approach effectively encourages responsible behavior, averting rebellious tendencies or speculative mindsets in enterprises with deviating risk perceptions regarding emergency materials security. Full article

Spectre variants 1 and 2 pose grave security threats to dynamic branch predictors in modern CPUs. While extensive research has focused on mitigating these attacks, little attention has been given to their energy and power implications. This study presents an empirical analysis of how compiler-based Spectre mitigation techniques influence energy consumption. We collect fine-grained energy readings from an HPC-class CPU via embedded sensors, allowing us to quantify the trade-offs between security and power efficiency. By utilizing a standard suite of microbenchmarks, we evaluate the impact of Spectre mitigations across three widely used compilers, comparing them to a no-mitigation baseline. The results show that energy consumption varies significantly depending on the compiler and workload characteristics. Loop unrolling influences power consumption by altering branch distribution, while speculative execution, when unrestricted, plays a role in conserving energy. Since Spectre mitigations inherently limit speculative execution, they should be applied selectively to vulnerable code patterns to optimize both security and power efficiency. Unlike previous studies that primarily focus on security effectiveness, this work uniquely evaluates the energy costs associated with Spectre mitigations at the compiler level, offering insights for power-efficient security strategies. Our findings underscore the importance of tailoring mitigation techniques to application needs, balancing performance, energy consumption, and security. The study provides practical recommendations for compiler developers to build more secure and energy-efficient software. Full article

Gas miscible flooding, especially CO₂ miscible flooding, is a key method for enhanced oil recovery. However, the high Minimum Miscibility Pressure (MMP) often makes true-miscible flooding impractical. A number of studies confirm the existence of a near-miscible region that also ensures high recovery. However, the exact boundary for near miscibility remains unclear, with various speculative definitions based on experimental data or by experience. In this work, a molecular-level understanding of miscibility and near miscibility and the role of the MMP reducer are achieved using the molecular dynamics method. It is found that the traditional criterion of interfacial tension being zero is not valid for the molecular dynamics method, and that the interaction energy between oil molecules suggests distinct boundary between near-miscibility and miscibility regimes. MMP reducers were found to bring the two regions closer in terms of energy, rather than actually reducing the MMP. Full article

Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, is renowned for its extreme volatility and speculative nature, making accurate price prediction a persistent challenge for investors. While recent studies have employed multivariate models to integrate historical price data with social media sentiment analysis, this study focuses on improving an existing univariate approach By incorporating sentiment and tweet volume data into a multivariate framework, we systematically evaluated the benefits of this integration. Among the five LSTM-based models developed for this study, the Multi-LSTM-Sentiment model achieved the best performance, with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.00196 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.00304. These results underscore the significance of including social media sentiment in predictive modelling and demonstrate its potential to enhance decision-making in the highly dynamic cryptocurrency market. Full article

One recurrent criticism of the Madhyamaka doctrine of emptiness (śūnyatā) is its equation with a potential axiological nihilism that undermines, inter alia, the telos of Buddhist practice. Here, I speculate that Madhyamaka non-foundationalism could be compatible with the naturalized teleology of C.S. Peirce. In brief, Peirce argues on pragmatic grounds that the ‘final cause’ of events does not refer to a predetermined finis ultimis or summum bonum with any ‘intrinsic nature’ (‘svabhāva’). Rather, a final cause is a general continuum of lawfulness (‘Third’/future) that mediates between indeterminate possibility (‘First’/present) and determinate actuality (‘Second’/past). Therefore, while a continuum of ‘purposiveness’ is a rational precondition for all temporal events, its futural significance means it can only ever be asymptotically realized; indeed, the constitutively general form of each ‘final’ cause is, practically speaking, fundamentally vague and open-ended to some degree. Finally, I show that the so-called strange attractors of dynamical systems theory provide an imperfect model for this naturalized ‘groundless teleology’. Full article

This paper examines the dynamic relationships between speculative activities, commodity returns, and macroeconomic conditions across five sectors compassing 29 commodities. Using weekly data spanning from January 2000 to July 2023, we construct comprehensive measures of commodity market speculation across five sectors and examine their sector-specific impact on returns through advanced econometric methods, including dynamic conditional correlation models, quantile regressions, Markov-switching models, and time-varying Granger causality tests. Our results reveal that the impact of speculative activities on commodity futures returns is conditional on the commodity sector and prevailing macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, the relationship between macroeconomic factors, speculative activities, and commodity futures returns is time varying. Among the macroeconomic variables, the financial stress indicator, as measured by the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, shows a significant ability to predict commodity futures returns. The relationship between speculation and commodity returns is bi-directional across all sectors. Full article

This study explores the financialization of agricultural commodities, focusing on how financial derivatives and index funds impact the volatility of agro-food markets. Using a Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model, we analyze volatility spillovers among key agricultural commodities, particularly maize, and related financial assets over a sample period from 2007 to 2020. Our analysis includes major financial assets like Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), the S&P 500 index, and agribusiness corporations such as ADM and Bunge and the largest corn flour producer, GRUMA. The results indicate that financial speculation, especially via passive investments such as ETFs, has intensified price volatility in commodity futures, leading to a systemic risk increase within the sector. This study provides empirical evidence of increased market integration between the agro-food sector and financial markets, underscoring risks to food security and economic stability. We conclude with recommendations for regulatory actions to mitigate systemic risks posed by the growing financial influence in agricultural markets. Full article

In response to the widespread issue of fake comments on e-commerce platforms, this study aims to analyze and propose a blockchain-based solution to incentivize authentic user feedback and reduce the prevalence of fraudulent reviews. Specifically, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model between sellers, buyers, and e-commerce platforms to study the real comment mechanism of blockchain. The strategy evolution under different incentive factors is simulated using replication dynamic equation analysis and Matlab software simulation. The study found that introducing smart contracts and “tokens” for incentives not only increased incentives for real comments but also reduced the negative experiences caused by “speculative” sellers, thereby influencing buyers to opt for authentic reviews. By structuring interactions through blockchain, the mechanism helped lower informational entropy thus reducing disorder and unpredictability in buyer and seller behavior and contributing to system stability. Further, by increasing penalties for dishonest behavior under the “credit on the chain” system, the platform lowered entropy in the system by promoting trust and reducing fraudulent activities. The real comment mechanism based on blockchain proposed in this paper can effectively enhance the order and transparency within the comment ecosystem. These findings contribute to theory and practice by providing strategic insights for e-commerce platforms to encourage genuine feedback, reduce informational entropy, and mitigate fake comments, ultimately fostering a more reliable online marketplace. Full article

We highlight camphene–camphor–polypropylene plastic as a useful material for self-propelled objects that show aggregation while floating on a water surface. We consider self-propelled rods as an example of aggregation of objects characterized by non-trivial individual shapes with low-symmetry interactions between them. The motion of rods made of the camphene–camphor–polypropylene plastic is supported by dissipation of the surface-active molecules. The physical processes leading to aggregation and the mathematical model of the process are discussed. We analyze experimental data of aggregate formation dynamics and relate them to the system’s properties. We speculate that the aggregate structure can be represented as a string of symbols, which opens the potential applicability of the phenomenon for information processing if objects floating on a water surface are regarded as reservoir computers. Full article

While many studies have used Earth observations to quantify urbanization in Africa, there is still a lack of empirical evidence on the role of secondary cities in the fastest urbanizing region in the world. Moreover, the diversity of urbanization processes in Africa, which can be more or less compact in terms of land consumption, remains insufficiently acknowledged and under-documented. This empirical study employed mixed methods to address these research gaps. We analyzed and compared the spatiotemporal dynamics of two secondary African cities, Ho (Ghana) and Kpalimé (Togo), between 1985 and 2020. We compared their spatial growth (the rate of urbanization of land) with their respective population growth rates using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery, and population data. To understand the factors behind eventual differences between the spatial patterns of urbanization of the two cities, our quantitative analysis based on remote sensing was confronted with qualitative data from individual interviews with key stakeholders. Our results showed two distinct urbanization trajectories between 1985 and 2010, with Ho following a more compact pattern than Kpalimé. Since 2010, however, both cities have tended towards urban sprawl, with an urbanization rate greater than the population growth rate. According to the interviews, the main determinants of urban sprawl in these two secondary cities were the absence of housing policies for low-income groups, the absence or inefficacy of urban master plans, the preponderance of single-family housing, and land speculation. Full article