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Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate
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Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Biosphere/Hydrosphere/Land–Atmosphere Interactions".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2020) | Viewed by 64347

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Luis Gimeno

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Applied Physics, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Interests: hydrological cycle; droughts; extreme events; health
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Ana María Durán-Quesada

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Physics and Center for Environmental Pollution, University of Costa Rica, 11501, 2060-Ciudad Universitaria Rodrigo Facio, San José, Costa Rica
Interests: tropical dynamics; climate modeling; stable isotopes for environmental applications; soil–plant–atmosphere continuum
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Paulina Ordoñez

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
Interests: observed changes in precipitation and future projections in climate change scenarios; water resources management; atmospheric moisture transport; extreme events
Dr. Rogert Sorí

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Environmental Physics Laboratory (EphysLab), Universidade de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Interests: hydrometeorology; drought; climate Variability; moisture transport; extreme events; climate risks

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

During recent decades Central America and the Caribbean have been affected by intense hydrometeorological phenomena such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes. The population faces the continual threat from climatic extremes and freshwater availability; in particular, small oceanic islands, which have been severely affected by natural disasters. In addition, future potential changes in hydro-climatological regimes are subjected to climate change scenarios and local ecosystem modifications because of anthropogenic actions. In consequence, this Special Issue invites contributions from studies in a wide range of topics and subtopics, focusing on Central America and Caribbean hydrometeorology and hydroclimate. The aim is to deepen knowledge already known and put into discussion new assessments and approaches for investigating atmospheric systems, processes and mechanisms that are involved and linked to the hydrological cycle.

Main topics:

  1. Observed changes in precipitation and future projections in climate change scenarios.
  2. The surface-atmosphere water interactions through: precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, soil moisture, groundwater and stream flows.
  3. Impact of land use change on rainfall variability.
  4. Atmospheric moisture transport: a bridge between evaporation and precipitation
  5. Extreme Events: droughts, floods, and associated mechanisms
  6. Numerical and statistical modeling
  7. Warm Pools, Low-Level Jets, Cold Fronts and Monsoons
  8. Tropical Cyclones
  9. Impact of Modes of Climate variability on hydrological regimes
  10. Remote Sensing and hydrological measurements
  11. Hydrometeorological Risks
  12. Water Resources Management and adaptation strategies

Prof. Dr. Luis Gimeno
Dr. Ana María Durán-Quesada
Dr. Paulina Ordoñez
Dr. Rogert Sorí
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • mesoamerican and the caribbean weather and climate research
  • observed changes in precipitation and future projections
  • extreme events
  • atmospheric moisture transport
  • tropical cyclones
  • hydrometeorological risks
  • water resources management

Published Papers (20 papers)

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21 pages, 12551 KiB  
Article
Space-Time Assessment of Extreme Precipitation in Cuba between 1980 and 2019 from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation Dataset
by Gleisis Alvarez-Socorro, José Carlos Fernández-Alvarez, Rogert Sorí, Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, Raquel Nieto and Luis Gimeno
Atmosphere 2021, 12(8), 995; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080995 - 31 Jul 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2392
Abstract
Precipitation extremes such as heavy rainfall and floods are of great interest for climate scientists, particularly for small islands vulnerable to weather phenomena such as hurricanes. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme rainfall over Cuba from 1980 to 2019, [...] Read more.
Precipitation extremes such as heavy rainfall and floods are of great interest for climate scientists, particularly for small islands vulnerable to weather phenomena such as hurricanes. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of extreme rainfall over Cuba from 1980 to 2019, separating the dry and rainy periods. In addition, a ranking of extreme precipitation events was performed, which provides the number of events, the area affected, and a ranking of their magnitude by considering the magnitude of anomalies. The analysis was conducted using daily data from the multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEPv2). In determining the extreme precipitation ranking, the daily extreme precipitation anomaly was calculated with respect to the 95th percentile climatological distribution, giving a measure of the rarity of the event for each day and each grid point. For a more detailed analysis regarding the ranking, a separation was made by regions applying the K-mean methodology. The months belonging to the rainy period of the year presented the highest amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile compared to results obtained for the dry period. Of the six months belonging to the cyclonic season, in five of them Cuba was affected, directly or indirectly, by a tropical cyclone. The years 1982–83 and 1998 presented the highest-ranking value for the dry and rainy periods, respectively. Moreover, a trend analysis revealed an increase in the trend of occurrence of extreme events and a decrease in the percentage of the area affected. The analysis by regions showed a similar behavior to that carried out for all of Cuba. It was found that the warm phase of the ENSO events influenced approximately ~22% of the occurrence of extreme events for both periods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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23 pages, 7249 KiB  
Article
Characterizing Bushfire Occurrences over Jamaica Using the MODIS C6 Fire Archive 2001–2019
by Candice S. Charlton, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Michael A. Taylor and Christina A. Douglas
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 390; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030390 - 17 Mar 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2138
Abstract
There is an increasing need to develop bushfire monitoring and early warning systems for Jamaica and the Caribbean. However, there are few studies that examine fire variability for the region. In this study the MODIS C6 Fire Archive for 2001–2019 is used to [...] Read more.
There is an increasing need to develop bushfire monitoring and early warning systems for Jamaica and the Caribbean. However, there are few studies that examine fire variability for the region. In this study the MODIS C6 Fire Archive for 2001–2019 is used to characterize bushfire frequencies across Jamaica and to relate the variability to large-scale climate. Using additive mixed model and backward linear regression, the MODIS represents 80% and 73% of the local Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB) data variability for 2010–2015, respectively. However, the MODIS values are smaller by a factor of approximately 30. The MODIS climatology over Jamaica reveals a primary peak in March and a secondary maximum in July, coinciding with months of minimum rainfall. A significant positive linear trend is observed for July-August bushfire events over 2001–2019 and represents 29% of the season’s variability. Trends in all-island totals in other seasons or annually were not statistically significant. However, positive annual trends in Zone 2 (eastern Jamaica) are statistically significant and may support an indication that a drying trend is evolving over the east. Significant 5-year and 3.5-year periodicities are also evident for April–June and September–November variability, respectively. Southern Jamaica and particularly the parish of Clarendon, known for its climatological dryness, show the greatest fire frequencies. The study provides evidence of linkages between fire occurrences over Jamaica and oceanic and atmospheric variability over the Atlantic and Pacific. For example, all-island totals show relatively strong association with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The study suggests that development of an early warning system for bushfire frequency that includes climate indices is possible and shows strong potential for fire predictions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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16 pages, 2581 KiB  
Article
Mechanisms for Severe Drought Occurrence in the Balsas River Basin (Mexico)
by Ana E. Melgarejo, Paulina Ordoñez, Raquel Nieto, Cristina Peña-Ortiz, Ricardo García-Herrera and Luis Gimeno
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 368; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030368 - 11 Mar 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2593
Abstract
This work provides an assessment of the two most intense seasonal droughts that occurred over the Balsas River Basin (BRB) in the period 1980–2017. The detection of the drought events was performed using the 6 month scale standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI-6) and the [...] Read more.
This work provides an assessment of the two most intense seasonal droughts that occurred over the Balsas River Basin (BRB) in the period 1980–2017. The detection of the drought events was performed using the 6 month scale standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI-6) and the 6 month standardized precipitation index (SPI-6) in October. Both indices were quite similar during the studied period, highlighting the larger contribution of precipitation deficits vs. temperature excess to the drought occurrence in the basin. The origin of the atmospheric water arriving to the BRB (1 May 1980–31 October 2017) was investigated by using a Lagrangian diagnosis method. The BRB receives moisture from the Caribbean Sea and the rest of the tropical Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern north Pacific and from three terrestrial evaporative sources: the region north of BRB, the south of BRB and the BRB itself. The terrestrial evaporative source of the BRB itself is by far the main moisture source. The two most intense drought events that occurred in the studied period were selected for further analysis. During the severe drought of 2005, the summertime sea surface temperature (SST) soared over the Caribbean Sea, extending eastward into a large swathe of tropical North Atlantic, which was accompanied by the record to date of hurricane activity. This heating generated a Rossby wave response with westward propagating anticyclonic/cyclonic gyres in the upper/lower troposphere. A cyclonic low-level circulation developed over the Gulf of Mexico and prevented the moisture from arriving to the BRB, with a consequent deficit in precipitation. Additionally, subsidence also prevented convection in most of the months of this drought period. During the extreme drought event of 1982, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remained southern and stronger than the climatological mean over the eastern tropical Pacific, producing an intense regional Hadley circulation. The descent branch of this cell inhibited the development of convection over the BRB, although the moisture sources increased their contributions; however, these were bounded to the lower levels by a strong trade wind inversion. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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22 pages, 11264 KiB  
Article
The Caribbean and 1.5 °C: Is SRM an Option?
by Leonardo A. Clarke, Michael A. Taylor, Abel Centella-Artola, Matthew St. M. Williams, Jayaka D. Campbell, Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot and Tannecia S. Stephenson
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 367; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030367 - 11 Mar 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2898
Abstract
The Caribbean, along with other small island developing states (SIDS), have advocated for restricting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the current century. Solar radiation management (SRM) may be one way to achieve this goal. This paper [...] Read more.
The Caribbean, along with other small island developing states (SIDS), have advocated for restricting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the current century. Solar radiation management (SRM) may be one way to achieve this goal. This paper examines the mean Caribbean climate under various scenarios of an SRM-altered versus an SRM-unaltered world for three global warming targets, namely, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Data from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 (GeoMIP1) were examined for two SRM scenarios: the G3 experiment where there is a gradual injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the tropical lower stratosphere starting in 2020 and terminating after 50 years, and the G4 experiment where a fixed 5 Teragram (Tg) of SO2 per year is injected into the atmosphere starting in 2020 and ending after 50 years. The results show that SRM has the potential to delay attainment of the 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C global warming targets. The extent of the delay varies depending on the SRM methodology but may be beyond mid-century for the 1.5 °C goal. In comparison, however, the higher temperature thresholds are both still attained before the end of century once SRM is ceased, raising questions about the value of the initial delay. The application of SRM also significantly alters mean Caribbean climate during the global warming target years (determined for a representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) world without SRM). The Caribbean is generally cooler but drier during the 1.5 °C years and similarly cool but less dry for years corresponding to the higher temperature targets. Finally, the mean Caribbean climate at 1.5 °C differs if the global warming target is achieved under SRM versus RCP4.5. The same is true for the higher warming targets. The implications of all the results are discussed as a background for determining whether SRM represents a viable consideration for Caribbean SIDS to achieve their “1.5 to stay alive” goal. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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18 pages, 6087 KiB  
Article
The Combined Effects of SST and the North Atlantic Subtropical High-Pressure System on the Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Interannual Variability
by Albenis Pérez-Alarcón, José C. Fernández-Alvarez, Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto and Luis Gimeno
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 329; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030329 - 04 Mar 2021
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3004
Abstract
The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted [...] Read more.
The combined effect of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system (NASH) in the interannual variability of the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) and landfalling in the period 1980–2019 is explored in this study. The SST was extracted from the Centennial Time Scale dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and TC records were obtained from the Atlantic Hurricane Database of the NOAA/National Hurricane Center. The genesis and landfalling regions were objectively clustered for this analysis. Seven regions of TC genesis and five for landfalling were identified. Intercluster differences were observed in the monthly frequency distribution and annual variability, both for genesis and landfalling. From the generalized least square multiple regression model, SST and NASH (intensity and position) covariates can explain 22.7% of the variance of the frequency of TC genesis, but it is only statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the NASH center latitude. The SST mostly modulates the frequency of TCs formed near the West African coast, and the NASH latitudinal variation affects those originated in the Lesser Antilles arc. For landfalling, both covariates explain 38.7% of the variance; however, significant differences are observed in the comparison between each region. With a statistical significance higher than 90%, SST and NASH explain 33.4% of the landfalling variability in the archipelago of the Bahamas and central–eastern region of Cuba. Besides, landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico and Central America seem to be modulated by SST. It was also found there was no statistically significant relationship between the frequency of genesis and landfalling with the NASH intensity. However, the NASH structure modulates the probability density of the TCs trajectory that make landfall once or several times in their lifetime. Thus, the NASH variability throughout a hurricane season affects the TCs trajectory in the North Atlantic basin. Moreover, we found that the landfalling frequency of TCs formed near the West Africa coast and the central North Atlantic is relatively low. Furthermore, the SST and NASH longitude center explains 31.6% (p < 0.05) of the variance of the landfalling intensity in the archipelago of the Bahamas, while the SST explains 26.4% (p < 0.05) in Central America. Furthermore, the 5-year moving average filter revealed decadal and multidecadal variability in both genesis and landfalling by region. Our findings confirm the complexity of the atmospheric processes involved in the TC genesis and landfalling. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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28 pages, 8617 KiB  
Article
Generating Projections for the Caribbean at 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C from a High-Resolution Ensemble
by Jayaka D. Campbell, Michael A. Taylor, Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Abel Centella-Artola, Leonardo A. Clarke and Kimberly A. Stephenson
Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 328; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030328 - 04 Mar 2021
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3157
Abstract
Six members of the Hadley Centre’s Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, [...] Read more.
Six members of the Hadley Centre’s Perturbed Physics Ensemble for the Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) project are downscaled using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) RCM (Regional Climate Model). Climate scenarios at long-term temperature goals (LTTGs) of 1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial warming levels are generated for the Caribbean and six sub-regions for annual and seasonal timescales. Under a high emissions scenario, the LTTGs are attained in the mid-2020s, end of the 2030s, and the early 2050s, respectively. At 1.5 °C, the region is slightly cooler than the globe, land areas warmer than ocean, and for the later months, the north is warmer than the south. The far western and southern Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean island chain dry at 1.5 °C (up to 50%). At 2.0 °C, the warming and drying intensify and there is a reversal of a wet tendency in parts of the north Caribbean. Drying in the rainfall season accounts for much of the annual change. There is limited further intensification of the region-wide drying at 2.5 °C. Changes in wind strength in the Caribbean low-level jet region may contribute to the patterns seen. There are implications for urgent and targeted adaptation planning in the Caribbean. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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14 pages, 4926 KiB  
Article
Projected Hydroclimate Changes on Hispaniola Island through the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models
by Dimitris A. Herrera, Rafael Mendez-Tejeda, Abel Centella-Artola, Daniel Martínez-Castro, Toby Ault and Ramón Delanoy
Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010006 - 23 Dec 2020
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3060
Abstract
Climate change might increase the frequency and severity of longer-lasting drought in the Caribbean, including in Hispaniola Island. Nevertheless, the hydroclimate changes projected by the state-of-the-art earth system models across the island remain unknown. Here, we assess 21st-century changes in hydroclimate over Hispaniola [...] Read more.
Climate change might increase the frequency and severity of longer-lasting drought in the Caribbean, including in Hispaniola Island. Nevertheless, the hydroclimate changes projected by the state-of-the-art earth system models across the island remain unknown. Here, we assess 21st-century changes in hydroclimate over Hispaniola Island using precipitation, temperature, and surface soil moisture data from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The resulting analysis indicates, as with the previous 5th Phase of CMIP (CMIP5) models, that Hispaniola Island might see a significant drying through the 21st century. The aridity appears to be robust in most of the island following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5–8.6, which assumes the “worst case” greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. We find a significant reduction in both annual mean precipitation and surface soil moisture (soil’s upper 10 cm), although it appears to be more pronounced for precipitation (up to 26% and 11% for precipitation and surface soil moisture, respectively). Even though we provide insights into future hydroclimate changes on Hispaniola Island, CMIP6’s intrinsic uncertainties and native horizontal resolution precludes us to better assess these changes at local scales. As such, we consider future dynamical downscaling efforts that might help us to better inform policy-makers and stakeholders in terms of drought risk. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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19 pages, 3809 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Sixteen Gridded Precipitation Datasets over the Caribbean Region Using Gauge Observations
by Abel Centella-Artola, Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot, Michael A. Taylor, Dimitris A. Herrera, Daniel Martinez-Castro, Isabelle Gouirand, Maibys Sierra-Lorenzo, Alejandro Vichot-Llano, Tannecia Stephenson, Cecilia Fonseca, Jayaka Campbell and Milena Alpizar
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1334; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121334 - 09 Dec 2020
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 3038
Abstract
The existence of several gridded precipitation products (GPP) has facilitated studies related to climate change, climate modeling, as well as a better understanding of the physical processes underpinning this key variable. Due to complexities in estimating rainfall, gridded datasets exhibit different levels of [...] Read more.
The existence of several gridded precipitation products (GPP) has facilitated studies related to climate change, climate modeling, as well as a better understanding of the physical processes underpinning this key variable. Due to complexities in estimating rainfall, gridded datasets exhibit different levels of accuracy across regions, even when they are developed at relatively high resolution or using sophisticated procedures. The performance of 16 GPP are evaluated over the Caribbean region, which includes the Caribbean Islands, and portions of Central South America. Monthly data for sixty weather stations are used as a reference for the period 1983–2010. The 16 GPP include six products based on station data only, two that combine ground station and satellite information, two merging station and reanalysis information, four based on reanalysis, and two using multisource information. The temporal resolution of the GPP ranged between daily and monthly and spatial resolution from 0.033° to 0.5°. The methodological approach employed combined a comparison of regional and sub-regional precipitation annual cycles, the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) index, as well as several metrics derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Overall, the best performances were obtained from GPCC025 and MSWEP2, likely reflecting the positive impact of the large number of station data utilized in their development. It is also demonstrated that a higher spatial resolution does not always mean better accuracy. There is a need for this kind of assessment when undertaking climate studies in regions like the Caribbean where resolution is a significant consideration. ERA5 performed best among the reanalyses analyzed and has the potential to be used to develop regionally based GPP by applying bias correction or downscaling techniques. The methodological approach employed provides a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of GPP in the Caribbean region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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18 pages, 6316 KiB  
Article
A Sea Breeze Study during Ticosonde-NAME 2004 in the Central Pacific of Costa Rica: Observations and Numerical Modeling
by Natali Mora, Jorge A. Amador, Erick R. Rivera and Tito Maldonado
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1333; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121333 - 09 Dec 2020
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1996
Abstract
Surface and upper air observations and MM5v3 simulations examined the structure and inland penetration of sea breeze (SB) along the Grande de Tárcoles river basin (GTRB), central Pacific, Costa Rica, for two different intensity regimes of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). Data comprise [...] Read more.
Surface and upper air observations and MM5v3 simulations examined the structure and inland penetration of sea breeze (SB) along the Grande de Tárcoles river basin (GTRB), central Pacific, Costa Rica, for two different intensity regimes of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). Data comprise the period of 1 July to 16 September 2004 from Ticosonde-North American Monsoon Experiment, and a local University of Costa Rica-National Meteorological Institute field campaign. Maximum precipitation occurs between 14:00–17:00 LST, showing a time lag of 2 to 3 h after the temperature maximum, suggesting that local diurnal heating is key to convection. July–August precipitation exhibited a rainfall decrease along GTRB due to the SB dynamical processes interaction with a strong CLLJ. The SB maximum inland incursion was 24 km, with no evidence of its penetration into the Central Valley. The MM5v3 simulations for two convective and boundary layer (BL) schemes captured some SB structure features along the GTRB. Comparison of model results with observed data shows deficiencies in the model representation of the surface flow near coastal regions. Differences may be the result of time lag model’s poor responses to actual early morning BL sea–land temperature gradients. MM5v3 configurations used in this study resulted in biased wind speed simulations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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16 pages, 6147 KiB  
Article
Precipitation and Temperature in Costa Rica at the End of the Century Based on NEX-GDDP Projected Scenarios
by Rodrigo Castillo and Jorge A. Amador
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1323; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121323 - 07 Dec 2020
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4120
Abstract
The evaluation of intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual variability of rainfall and temperature extremes, while using climate change scenarios data, is extremely important for socio-economic activities, such as water resources management. Costa Rica, a climate change hotspot, is largely dependent on rainfall for socioeconomic [...] Read more.
The evaluation of intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual variability of rainfall and temperature extremes, while using climate change scenarios data, is extremely important for socio-economic activities, such as water resources management. Costa Rica, a climate change hotspot, is largely dependent on rainfall for socioeconomic activities; hence, the relevance of this study. Based on the NEX-GDDP, rainfall and temperature range were analyzed for Costa Rica at the end of the century (2070–2099), while using 1970–1999 as a baseline for six available meteorological stations. Differences between the multimodel ensembles of two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the historical information were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion region for climate change impacts in Central America, for which projected scenarios suggest an early onset of the rainy season, and a decline in the mid-summer drought (MSD) minimum. The assessment of model data in some regions of Costa Rica, for which historical data were available, suggests that the latter does not capture a well-known regional climate feature, the MSD, in both precipitation and temperature range well. The availability of observed past data sources is a major limitation of this research; however, with the station data used, it is still possible to draw some conclusions regarding future climate in some regions of Costa Rica, especially in the northwest side of the country, where past data are consistent with model information, providing a more reliable picture of changes in climate there that has potential implications for socioeconomic sectors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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18 pages, 3036 KiB  
Article
Examination of WRF-ARW Experiments Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations to Study the Rapid Intensification and Trajectory of Hurricane Otto (2016)
by Tito Maldonado, Jorge A. Amador, Erick R. Rivera, Hugo G. Hidalgo and Eric J. Alfaro
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1317; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121317 - 04 Dec 2020
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2408
Abstract
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and [...] Read more.
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leaving enormous economic losses and many fatalities. In this study, a set of three numerical simulations are performed to examine the skill of model estimations in reproducing RI and trajectory of Hurricane Otto by comparing the results of a global model to a regional model using three different planetary boundary layer parameterizations (PBL). The objective is to set the basis for future studies that analyse the physical reasons why a particular simulation (associated with a certain model setup) performs better than others in terms of reproducing RI and trajectory. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting—Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with boundary and initial conditions provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis (horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees). The PBL used are the Medium Range Forecast, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and the Yonsei University (YSU) parameterizations. The regional model is run in three static domains with horizontal grid spacing of 27, 9 and 3 km, the latter covering the spacial extent of Otto during the simulation period. WRF-ARW results improve the GFS forecast, in almost every aspect evaluated in this study, particularly, the simulated trajectories in WRF-ARW show a better representation of the cyclone path and movement compared to GFS. Even though the MYJ experiment was the only one that exhibited an abrupt 24-h change in the storm’s surface wind, close to the 25-knot threshold, the YSU scheme presented the fastest intensification, closest to reality. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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21 pages, 9730 KiB  
Article
Domestic Water Supply Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Role of Alternative Water Sources in Kingston, Jamaica
by Danneille A. Townsend, Janez Sušnik and Pieter van der Zaag
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1314; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121314 - 04 Dec 2020
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3871
Abstract
Globally, freshwater resources are threatened, resulting in challenges for urban water supply and management. Climate change, population growth, and urbanization have only exacerbated this crisis. For the Caribbean, climate change through the impact of increasing temperatures and rainfall variability has resulted in more [...] Read more.
Globally, freshwater resources are threatened, resulting in challenges for urban water supply and management. Climate change, population growth, and urbanization have only exacerbated this crisis. For the Caribbean, climate change through the impact of increasing temperatures and rainfall variability has resulted in more frequent and intense episodes of disasters including droughts and floods which have impaired the quantity and quality of freshwater supplies. Using Caribbean-specific climate forecasting, it is shown that rainfall totals in Kingston, Jamaica, are expected to reduce by 2030 and 2050 under two RCPs. In addition, the timing of the primary rainy season is expected to shift, potentially impacting water supply security. Analysis of the potential of rainwater harvesting (RWH) to augment supply and enhance water supply resilience shows that in two communities studied in Kingston, it can contribute up to 7% of total water supply. Household storage requirements are about 1 m3 per household, which is feasible. RWH offers the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation measures at a household level. Policy, incentives, and increased awareness about the potential of RWH to meet non-potable household demand in Kingston must be improved, as well as efforts to reduce the currently unreasonably high levels of non-revenue water in order to move towards an integrated, sustainable, and climate-resilient urban water supply strategy for the city. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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14 pages, 1598 KiB  
Article
Standardized Drought Indices for Pre-Summer Drought Assessment in Tropical Areas
by David Romero, Eric Alfaro, Roger Orellana and Maria-Engracia Hernandez Cerda
Atmosphere 2020, 11(11), 1209; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111209 - 09 Nov 2020
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2186
Abstract
The main climatic indices used for the determination of pre-summer drought severity were developed for temperate zones with very different climatic conditions from those found in the tropical climate zones, particularly with respect to seasonal rainfall variations. The temporal evolution of pre-summer drought [...] Read more.
The main climatic indices used for the determination of pre-summer drought severity were developed for temperate zones with very different climatic conditions from those found in the tropical climate zones, particularly with respect to seasonal rainfall variations. The temporal evolution of pre-summer drought leads the authors to compute the indices for each year over a defined period according to the climatic normals of each meteorological station and to consider the months inside the dry episode differently, according to the law of emptying the water reserves. As a function of this, standardized drought indices are proposed for the evaluation of the pre-summer drought in tropical zone. Two new indices were tested: one developed from precipitation and the other also considering temperature. These indices were validated by correlation with Advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series and used to identify the most severe drought conditions in the Yucatan Peninsula. The comparison between the indices and their temporal variations highlighted the importance of temperature in the most critical events and left indications of the impact of global warming on the phenomenon. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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20 pages, 7087 KiB  
Article
The Role of Tropical Cyclones on the Total Precipitation in Cuba during the Hurricane Season from 1980 to 2016
by José C. Fernández–Alvarez, Rogert Sorí, Albenis Pérez–Alarcón, Raquel Nieto and Luis Gimeno
Atmosphere 2020, 11(11), 1156; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111156 - 26 Oct 2020
Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3169
Abstract
This study quantifies the amount of rainfall supplied by tropical cyclones (TCs) to Cuba. It uses the long–term global gridded Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) v2 data set, with a resolution of 0.1° in latitude and longitude, and a temporal resolution of 3 h [...] Read more.
This study quantifies the amount of rainfall supplied by tropical cyclones (TCs) to Cuba. It uses the long–term global gridded Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) v2 data set, with a resolution of 0.1° in latitude and longitude, and a temporal resolution of 3 h during the hurricane seasons from 1980–2016. During this study period, 146 TCs were identified within a 500–km radius of Cuba. The contribution of TCs to the total precipitation over Cuba during the cyclonic season was ~11%. The maximum contribution occurs in October and November, representing 18% and 28% of the total precipitation, respectively. The interannual precipitation contribution shows a positive correlation (~0.74) with the number of TCs, but without a significant trend for the period. A climatological spatial analysis of the rainfall associated with TCs revealed great heterogeneity, although the major contribution was observed along the southern coast of the eastern and central provinces of Cuba, and in the western province of Pinar del Río. No significant difference was observed between the number of TCs that affected Cuba and their rainfall contribution under the positive and negative phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, the negative phase of the NAO led to an increase in the genesis of TCs that later affected Cuba, which led to a greater contribution to precipitation compared to that obtained from TCs during the positive phase of this oscillation. Our results also confirm that anomalous warmth of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, revealed through the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and enlargement of the Atlantic Warm Pool, enhances the genesis in the North Atlantic Basin of the TCs that affect Cuba, which was associated with an increase of the rainfall contribution to the total precipitation compared to that calculated for TCs formed during the opposite phases. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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21 pages, 19536 KiB  
Article
Identification of Tropical Cyclones’ Critical Positions Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events in Central America
by Hugo G. Hidalgo, Eric J. Alfaro, Franklin HernÃandez-Castro and Paula M. Pérez-Briceño
Atmosphere 2020, 11(10), 1123; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11101123 - 19 Oct 2020
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3566
Abstract
Tropical cyclones are one of the most important causes of disasters in Central America. Using historical (1970–2010) tracks of cyclones in the Caribbean and Pacific basin, we identify critical path locations where these low-pressure systems cause the highest number of floods in a [...] Read more.
Tropical cyclones are one of the most important causes of disasters in Central America. Using historical (1970–2010) tracks of cyclones in the Caribbean and Pacific basin, we identify critical path locations where these low-pressure systems cause the highest number of floods in a set of 88 precipitation stations in the region. Results show that tropical cyclones from the Caribbean and Pacific basin produce a large number of indirect impacts on the Pacific slope of the Central American isthmus. Although the direct impact of a tropical cyclone usually results in devastation in the affected region, the indirect effects are more common and sometimes equally severe. In fact, the storm does not need to be an intense hurricane to cause considerable impacts and damage. The location of even a lower intensity storm in critical positions of the oceanic basin can result in destructive indirect impacts in Central America. The identification of critical positions can be used for emergency agencies in the region to issue alerts of possible flooding and catastrophic events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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17 pages, 6727 KiB  
Article
Climatological Large-Scale Circulation Patterns over The Middle Americas Region
by Carlos A. Ochoa-Moya, Yoel A. Cala-Pérez, Yanet Díaz-Esteban, Christopher L. Castro, Paulina Ordoñez-Peréz and Arturo I. Quintanar
Atmosphere 2020, 11(7), 745; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070745 - 14 Jul 2020
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2825
Abstract
In this study, twenty large-scale circulation patterns are identified to generate a synoptic classification of Weather Types (WT) over a region that comprises Mexico, the Intra-Americas Seas, Central America, and northern South America. This classification is performed using Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) with mean [...] Read more.
In this study, twenty large-scale circulation patterns are identified to generate a synoptic classification of Weather Types (WT) over a region that comprises Mexico, the Intra-Americas Seas, Central America, and northern South America. This classification is performed using Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) with mean sea-level pressure standardized anomalies from reanalysis. The influence of quasi-permanent pressure centers over the region, such as North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and North Pacific High (NPH) are well captured. Seasonal variability of high-pressure centers for dry (November–April) and wet (May–October) periods over the entire region are also well represented in amplitude and pattern among the WTs. The NASH influence and intensification of the Caribbean low-level jet and the North American monsoon system is well captured. During the dry period, a strong trough wind advects cold air masses from mid-latitudes to the subtropics over the western Atlantic Ocean. High-frequency transitions among WTs tend to cluster around the nearest neighbors in SOM space, while low-frequency transitions occur along columns instead of rows in the SOM matrix. Low-frequency transitions are related to intraseasonal and seasonal scales. The constructed catalog can identify near-surface atmospheric circulation patterns from a unified perspective of synoptic climate variability, and it is in high agreement with previous studies for the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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13 pages, 3433 KiB  
Article
Aridity Trends in Central America: A Spatial Correlation Analysis
by Marcela Alfaro-Córdoba, Hugo G. Hidalgo and Eric J. Alfaro
Atmosphere 2020, 11(4), 427; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040427 - 23 Apr 2020
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 3582
Abstract
Trend analyses are common in several types of climate change studies. In many cases, finding evidence that the trends are different from zero in hydroclimate variables is of particular interest. However, when estimating the confidence interval of a set of hydroclimate stations or [...] Read more.
Trend analyses are common in several types of climate change studies. In many cases, finding evidence that the trends are different from zero in hydroclimate variables is of particular interest. However, when estimating the confidence interval of a set of hydroclimate stations or gridded data the spatial correlation between can affect the significance assessment using for example traditional non-parametric and parametric methods. For this reason, Monte Carlo simulations are needed in order to generate maps of corrected trend significance. In this article, we determined the significance of trends in aridity, modeled runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale Hydrological model, Hagreaves potential evapotranspiration (PET) and near-surface temperature in Central America. Linear-regression models were fitted considering that the predictor variable is the time variable (years from 1970 to 1999) and predictand variable corresponds to each of the previously mentioned hydroclimate variables. In order to establish if the temporal trends were significantly different from zero, a Mann Kendall and a Monte Carlo test were used. The spatial correlation was calculated first to correct the variance of each trend. It was assumed in this case that the trends form a spatial stochastic process that can be modeled as such. Results show that the analysis considering the spatial correlation proposed here can be used for identifying those extreme trends. However, a set of variables with strong spatial correlation such as temperature can have robust and widespread significant trends assuming independence, but the vast majority of the stations can still fail the Monte Carlo test. We must be vigilant of the statistically robust changes in key primary parameters such as temperature and precipitation, which are the driving sources of hydrological alterations that may affect social and environmental systems in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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20 pages, 11157 KiB  
Article
The Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Choco Low-Level Jet and Precipitation in Colombia
by Wilmar Loaiza Cerón, Rita Valeria Andreoli, Mary Toshie Kayano, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira de Souza, Charles Jones and Leila M. V. Carvalho
Atmosphere 2020, 11(2), 174; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020174 - 07 Feb 2020
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 3979
Abstract
This study examines the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the Choco Low-level Jet (CJ) variations during the 1983–2016 period. Considering the September–November (SON) 925 hPa zonal wind index in the CJ core, a significant breakpoint occurs in 1997 with larger [...] Read more.
This study examines the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the Choco Low-level Jet (CJ) variations during the 1983–2016 period. Considering the September–November (SON) 925 hPa zonal wind index in the CJ core, a significant breakpoint occurs in 1997 with larger values after 1997. The changes in the CJ and Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ), and their related ocean-atmospheric patterns and impacts on precipitation over Colombia were analyzed considering separately the 1983–1996 and 1998–2016 periods, which overlap the cold and warm AMO phases, respectively. During the 1998–2016 period, the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the positive ones in the Caribbean Sea and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) strengthen the CJ and weaken the CLLJ, and moisture is transported into Central and Western Colombia increasing the rainfall there. Our results indicate that part of the CJ strengthening after 1997 was due to a higher percentage of intense CJ events coinciding with La Niña events during the warm AMO and cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) background. However, the AMO-related SST and sea level pressure (SLP) variations in the TNA seem to be more crucial in modulating the CJ and CLLJ intensities, such that CJ is weakened (intensified) and CLLJ is intensified (weakened) before (after) 1997. As far as we know, the relations of the CJ and CLLJ intensities to the AMO phases were not examined before and might be useful for modeling studies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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18 pages, 1699 KiB  
Article
Observational Evidence of the Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in the Western Caribbean Trade Winds
by Yanet Díaz-Esteban and Graciela B. Raga
Atmosphere 2019, 10(11), 700; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110700 - 13 Nov 2019
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2823
Abstract
The present study aims to determine the factors influencing the transition from shallow to deep convection in the trade winds region using an observational approach, with emphasis in the Yucatan Peninsula in eastern Mexico. The methodology is based on a discrimination of two [...] Read more.
The present study aims to determine the factors influencing the transition from shallow to deep convection in the trade winds region using an observational approach, with emphasis in the Yucatan Peninsula in eastern Mexico. The methodology is based on a discrimination of two regimes of convection: a shallow cumulus regime, usually with little or no precipitation associated, and an afternoon deep convection regime, with large amounts of precipitation, preceded by a short period of shallow convection. Then, composites of meteorological fields at surface and several vertical levels, for each of the two convection regimes, are compared to infer which meteorological factors are involved in the development of deep convection in this region. Also, the relationship between meteorological variables and selected regime-transition parameters is evaluated only for deep convection regime days. Results indicate the importance of dynamic factors, such as the meridional wind component, in the transition from shallow to deep convection. As expected, thermodynamic variables, such as the low-level specific humidity in the shallow cumulus layer, also contribute to the regime transition. The presence of a southerly component of wind at low- to mid-levels during the early morning in deep convection days provides the shallow cumulus with a more favorable environment so that transition can occur, since abundant moisture from the Caribbean is supplied through this prevailing southern wind. The results can be relevant for reducing uncertainties regarding some important parameters in global and regional models, which could lead to improved simulations of the transition from shallow to deep convection and precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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Review

Jump to: Research

32 pages, 5233 KiB  
Review
Climate Perspectives in the Intra–Americas Seas
by Ana María Durán-Quesada, Rogert Sorí, Paulina Ordoñez and Luis Gimeno
Atmosphere 2020, 11(9), 959; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11090959 - 09 Sep 2020
Cited by 33 | Viewed by 5930
Abstract
The Intra–Americas Seas region is known for its relevance to air–sea interaction processes, the contrast between large water masses and a relatively small continental area, and the occurrence of extreme events. The differing weather systems and the influence of variability at different spatio–temporal [...] Read more.
The Intra–Americas Seas region is known for its relevance to air–sea interaction processes, the contrast between large water masses and a relatively small continental area, and the occurrence of extreme events. The differing weather systems and the influence of variability at different spatio–temporal scales is a characteristic feature of the region. The impact of hydro–meteorological extreme events has played a huge importance for regional livelihood, having a mostly negative impact on socioeconomics. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and droughts are often discussed in terms of their impact on economic activities and access to water. Furthermore, future climate projections suggest that warming scenarios are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events, which poses a major threat to vulnerable communities. In a region where the economy is largely dependent on agriculture and the population is exposed to the impact of extremes, understanding the climate system is key to informed policymaking and management plans. A wealth of knowledge has been published on regional weather and climate, with a majority of studies focusing on specific components of the system. This study aims to provide an integral overview of regional weather and climate suitable for a wider community. Following the presentation of the general features of the region, a large scale is introduced outlining the main structures that affect regional climate. The most relevant climate features are briefly described, focusing on sea surface temperature, low–level circulation, and rainfall patterns. The impact of climate variability at the intra–seasonal, inter–annual, decadal, and multi–decadal scales is discussed. Climate change is considered in the regional context, based on current knowledge for natural and anthropogenic climate change. The present challenges in regional weather and climate studies have also been included in the concluding sections of this review. The overarching aim of this work is to leverage information that may be transferred efficiently to support decision–making processes and provide a solid foundation on regional weather and climate for professionals from different backgrounds. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Central America and Caribbean Hydrometeorology and Hydroclimate)
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