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Special Issue "Innovative Aspects in Flood Risk Evaluation, Mapping and Communication"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2017)

Special Issue Editors

Guest Editor
Prof. Dr. Giuseppe Tito Aronica

Department of Engineering, University of Messina, Messina, Italy
Website | E-Mail
Phone: :+39-090-3977164
Interests: flood risk, flood vulnerability and hazard evaluation, pluvial flooding and urban drainage modelling, flash flood hydrology, hydrological extremes
Guest Editor
Prof. Dr. Bruno Merz

GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Website | E-Mail
Interests: hydrological extremes, risk assessment, flood hazard and risk, hydrological processes, hydrological and hydraulic modelling
Guest Editor
Prof. Slobodan Djordjevic

Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter
Website | E-Mail
Interests: computational hydraulics, urban drainage modelling, flood impact assessment, resilience to extreme weather

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The diversity in methodological approaches taken and terminology used in hazard and vulnerability modelling, risk mapping, uncertainty assessment and visualisation in different science and practice communities brings challenges in establishing a comprehensive, robust and reliable picture of flood risk. This Special Issue of the ‘Water’ Journal is designed to address this problem by presenting innovative results on the following topics:

  • Methods for hazard and vulnerability modelling, risk mapping, uncertainty assessment and visualisation.
  • Validation of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimates—How can the quantification of different components of flood risk be confirmed?
  • Representing the diverse nature of the flood hazard and consequences—How can flood risk maps incorporate and deal with different flood types (e.g. urban flooding, flash flood, coastal flooding) and aspects of vulnerability (e.g. monetary loss, impacts on infrastructure, environmental damage)?
  • Improved communication of best estimates and associated uncertainty—How can flood hazard and risk maps communicate risk statements more effectively and meaningfully to different map users? What are adequate representations of the associated uncertainty?
  • Use of flood maps in the insurance and re-insurance business—How can historical records and the results of modelling of development and climate change scenarios be employed to assess potential future impacts?

Prof. Dr. Giuseppe Tito Aronica
Prof. Dr. Bruno Merz
Prof. Slobodan Djordjevic
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • flood risk mapping
  • hazard
  • vulnerability and damage modelling
  • risk communication
  • uncertainty
  • visualisation

Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

Open AccessArticle A Hydrological and Geomorphometric Approach to Understanding the Generation of Wadi Flash Floods
Water 2017, 9(7), 553; doi:10.3390/w9070553
Received: 14 June 2017 / Revised: 16 July 2017 / Accepted: 20 July 2017 / Published: 24 July 2017
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Abstract
Abstract: The generation and processes of wadi flash floods are very complex and are not well understood. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between variations in geomorphometric and rainfall characteristics and the responses of wadi flash floods. An integrated approach was developed
[...] Read more.
Abstract: The generation and processes of wadi flash floods are very complex and are not well understood. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between variations in geomorphometric and rainfall characteristics and the responses of wadi flash floods. An integrated approach was developed based on geomorphometric analysis and hydrological modeling. The Wadi Qena, which is located in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, was selected to validate the developed approach and was divided into 14 sub-basins with areas ranging from 315 to 1488 km2. The distributed Hydrological River Basin Environment Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) was used to obtain a good representation of the spatial variability of the rainfall and geomorphology in the basin. Thirty-eight geomorphometric parameters representing the topographic, scale, shape and drainage characteristics of the basins were considered and extracted using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. A series of flash flood events from 1994, 2010, 2013, and 2014, in addition to synthetic virtual storms with different durations and intensities, were selected for the application of this study. The results exhibit strong correlations between scale and topographic parameters and the hydrological indices of the wadi flash floods, while the shape and drainage network metrics have smaller impacts. The total rainfall amount and duration significantly impact the relationship between the hydrologic response of the wadi and its geomorphometry. For most of the parameters, we found that the impact of the wadi geomorphometry on the hydrologic response increases with increasing rainfall intensity. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operations Considering Short-Term Flood Control and Long-Term Water Supply: A Case Study for the Da-Han Creek Basin in Taiwan
Water 2017, 9(6), 424; doi:10.3390/w9060424
Received: 3 February 2017 / Revised: 7 June 2017 / Accepted: 8 June 2017 / Published: 12 June 2017
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Abstract
This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and
[...] Read more.
This study applies an integrated methodology to assess short-term over-levee risk and long-term water shortage risk in the Da-Han Creek basin, which is the most important flood control and water storage system in northern Taiwan. An optimization model for reservoir flood control and water supply is adopted, to determine reservoir releases based on synthetic inflow hydrographs during typhoons, which are generated by Monte Carlo simulations. The release is then used to calculate the water level at a downstream control point using a novel developed back-propagation neural network-based model, to reduce computational complexity and achieve automatic-efficient risk evaluation. The calculated downstream water levels and final reservoir water levels after a typhoon event are used to evaluate the mapped over-levee risk and water shortage risk, respectively. The results showed that the different upper limit settings for the reservoir have a significant influence on the variation of 1.19 × 10−5% to 75.6% of the water shortage risk. This occurs because of the insufficient inflow and narrow storage capacity of the Shih-Men Reservoir during drought periods. However, the upper limit settings have a minor influence (with a variation of only 0.149% to 0.157%) on the over-levee risk in typhoon periods, because of the high protection standards for the downstream embankment. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Vulnerability of Buildings on Coastal Dikes due to Wave Overtopping
Water 2017, 9(6), 394; doi:10.3390/w9060394
Received: 21 April 2017 / Revised: 19 May 2017 / Accepted: 26 May 2017 / Published: 2 June 2017
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Abstract
The vulnerability of buildings on coastal dikes due to overtopping wave impacts is difficult to assess. A method is developed in this paper to quantify the vulnerability of masonry buildings on a coastal dike exposed to wave overtopping. Using previous studies, the accidental
[...] Read more.
The vulnerability of buildings on coastal dikes due to overtopping wave impacts is difficult to assess. A method is developed in this paper to quantify the vulnerability of masonry buildings on a coastal dike exposed to wave overtopping. Using previous studies, the accidental loads due to the extreme wave impacts are characterized. Using the approach from Eurocode 6, the strength of masonry buildings under these loads is assessed. Results from a case study in Belgium show that masonry buildings located 10–15 m away from the seafront would suffer from localized damage, such as windows being broken under a 1000 year storm. The building would collapse under a 10,000-year storm. The method can be used to assess the safety of existing buildings on coastal dikes and to design new buildings. Full article
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Open AccessArticle A Study on Coastal Flooding and Risk Assessment under Climate Change in the Mid-Western Coast of Taiwan
Water 2017, 9(6), 390; doi:10.3390/w9060390
Received: 21 March 2017 / Revised: 26 April 2017 / Accepted: 22 May 2017 / Published: 1 June 2017
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Abstract
This study integrated coastal watershed models and combined them with a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative
[...] Read more.
This study integrated coastal watershed models and combined them with a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on the prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of the years from 2020 to 2039. Databases from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze SLR using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using the Wind Wave Model (WWM) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Coastal inundation was then simulated via the WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition, and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise by an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that the Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient and reach the high-risk level. This assessment provides important information for creating an adaption policy for the mid-western coast of Taiwan. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas
Water 2017, 9(6), 360; doi:10.3390/w9060360
Received: 26 February 2017 / Revised: 4 May 2017 / Accepted: 18 May 2017 / Published: 24 May 2017
Cited by 1 | PDF Full-text (4890 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Floods are natural disasters with significant socio-economic consequences. Urban areas with uncontrolled urban development, rapid population growth, an unregulated municipal system and an unplanned change of land use belong to the highly sensitive areas where floods cause devastating economic and social losses. The
[...] Read more.
Floods are natural disasters with significant socio-economic consequences. Urban areas with uncontrolled urban development, rapid population growth, an unregulated municipal system and an unplanned change of land use belong to the highly sensitive areas where floods cause devastating economic and social losses. The aim of this paper is to present a reliable GIS multi-criteria methodology for hazard zones’ mapping of flood-prone areas in urban areas. The proposed methodology is based on the combined application of geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The methodology considers six factors that are relevant to the hazard of flooding in urban areas: the height, slope, distance to the sewage network, the distance from the water surface, the water table and land use. The expert evaluation takes into account the nature and severity of observed criteria, and it is tested using three scenarios: the modalities of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The first of them uses a new approach to the exploitation of uncertainty in the application of the AHP technique, the interval rough numbers (IR’AHP). The second one uses the fuzzy technique for the exploitation of uncertainty with the AHP method (F’AHP), and the third scenario contemplates the use of the traditional (crisp) AHP method. The proposed methodology is demonstrated in Palilula Municipality, Belgrade, Serbia. In the last few decades, Palilula Municipality has been repeatedly devastated by extreme flood events. These floods severely affected the transportation networks and other infrastructure. Historical flood inundation data have been used in the validation process. The final urban flood hazard map proves a satisfactory agreement between the flood hazard zones and the spatial distribution of historical floods that happened in the last 58 years. The results indicate that the scenario in which the IR’AHP methodology is used provides the highest level of compatibility with historical data on floods. The produced map showed that the areas of very high flood hazard are located on the left Danube River bank. These areas are characterized by lowland morphology, gentle slope, sewage network, expansion of impermeable locations and intense urbanization. The proposed GIS-IR’AHP methodology and the results of this study provide a good basis for developing a system of flood hazard management in urban areas and can be successfully used for spatial city development policy. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Flood Loss Models and Risk Analysis for Private Households in Can Tho City, Vietnam
Water 2017, 9(5), 313; doi:10.3390/w9050313
Received: 24 February 2017 / Revised: 17 April 2017 / Accepted: 24 April 2017 / Published: 29 April 2017
Cited by 1 | PDF Full-text (11969 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Vietnam has a long history and experience with floods. Flood risk is expected to increase further due to climatic, land use and other global changes. Can Tho City, the cultural and economic center of the Mekong delta in Vietnam, is at high risk
[...] Read more.
Vietnam has a long history and experience with floods. Flood risk is expected to increase further due to climatic, land use and other global changes. Can Tho City, the cultural and economic center of the Mekong delta in Vietnam, is at high risk of flooding. To improve flood risk analyses for Vietnam, this study presents novel multi-variable flood loss models for residential buildings and contents and demonstrates their application in a flood risk assessment for the inner city of Can Tho. Cross-validation reveals that decision tree based loss models using the three input variables water depth, flood duration and floor space of building are more appropriate for estimating building and contents loss in comparison with depth–damage functions. The flood risk assessment reveals a median expected annual flood damage to private households of US$3340 thousand for the inner city of Can Tho. This is approximately 2.5% of the total annual income of households in the study area. For damage reduction improved flood risk management is required for the Mekong Delta, based on reliable damage and risk analyses. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Assessment of Social Vulnerability to Flood in Urban Côte d’Ivoire Using the MOVE Framework
Water 2017, 9(4), 292; doi:10.3390/w9040292
Received: 29 November 2016 / Revised: 10 March 2017 / Accepted: 18 April 2017 / Published: 21 April 2017
Cited by 1 | PDF Full-text (5000 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Coupled with poor urban development, the increasing urban population of many Sub-Saharan African countries is subject to recurrent severe flooding episodes. In response to these flood events, while the focus is often put on slums and precarious urban settings, the social implications of
[...] Read more.
Coupled with poor urban development, the increasing urban population of many Sub-Saharan African countries is subject to recurrent severe flooding episodes. In response to these flood events, while the focus is often put on slums and precarious urban settings, the social implications of these floods affect a variety of social classes. Presenting a case study of Cocody, a district of Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, known to have the country’s highest number of flood-impacted people, this paper evaluates the social vulnerability of urban Côte d’Ivoire to flooding using the MOVE framework. The MOVE framework (Method for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe) has successfully been used in European contexts to assess social vulnerability of urban areas to geo-environmental disasters such floods. It helped assess the major factors involved in the social vulnerability to urban flooding and to have a good appreciation of the spatial distribution of areas that are vulnerable to urban flood. By taking this framework to the local context, relevant indicators were developed and GIS applications were used to assess spatially the relative social vulnerability of Cocody sub-districts to urban flooding. The results revealed that many sub-districts of Cocody are highly vulnerable to urban floods. Exposure and susceptibility are components that are found to have high influence on vulnerability to flood hazard in the district of Cocody. Their respective indicators need to be addressed properly in order to increase residents’ resilience to urban flooding. The MOVE theoretical framework can be applied in Africa by contextualizing the vulnerability by using local indicators. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Optimal Operation Research of Flood Retarding in Plain River Network Region
Water 2017, 9(4), 280; doi:10.3390/w9040280
Received: 16 November 2016 / Revised: 5 April 2017 / Accepted: 12 April 2017 / Published: 17 April 2017
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Abstract
The operation of flood retarding areas does not attract much attention, although they are important components of flood control systems. Poor operation of such areas restricts not only the socio-economic development of the flood retarding area, but also limits scientific flood control options.
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The operation of flood retarding areas does not attract much attention, although they are important components of flood control systems. Poor operation of such areas restricts not only the socio-economic development of the flood retarding area, but also limits scientific flood control options. As the second-largest flood retarding area in China, with more than 2000 km2 and 300 polders, the Hongze Lake vicinity was taken as a case study of graded flood retarding. A one and two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic model was established to simulate flood routing in the Hongze Lake area. Fifteen different schemes involving different flood magnitudes and flood retarding operations were simulated. The results show that (1) having a flood retarding area is essential; and (2) the “graded flood retarding” scheme is superior to “no grading flood retarding” scheme; and (3) a “two-grade flood retarding” scheme is recommended. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Paleohydraulic Reconstruction of Modern Large Floods at Subcritical Speed in a Confined Valley: Proof of Concept
Water 2016, 8(12), 567; doi:10.3390/w8120567
Received: 5 September 2016 / Revised: 20 November 2016 / Accepted: 24 November 2016 / Published: 2 December 2016
Cited by 1 | PDF Full-text (34184 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
The present study aims to show the accuracy of paleoflood reconstruction techniques based on two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic modelling of a large flood. Using this reconstruction technique, we determined trends in flood stages over time in a regulated river. A stretch of the Guadalquivir
[...] Read more.
The present study aims to show the accuracy of paleoflood reconstruction techniques based on two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic modelling of a large flood. Using this reconstruction technique, we determined trends in flood stages over time in a regulated river. A stretch of the Guadalquivir River (Southern Spain) was selected as the study site. High-resolution orthophotos and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevations were acquired just after modern floods. They were used for the identification and location of stage indicators. In addition, water gradients were estimated from gauging records, documentary information and paleostage indicators (PSIs) in two situations: (i) pre-vegetation encroachment; and (ii) post-vegetation encroachment due to upstream impoundment. Standard two-dimensional, flow depth-averaged equations over fixed beds were used in the hydraulic modelling. In a first stage, long records of instrumental data at gauging stations and documentary evidence of flood levels served to calibrate the input parameters of the hydraulic model. In a second stage, paleoflood signatures within sedimentary and botanical sequences served to verify the flood stages in the numerical simulations not only at the river reach where instrumental data exist but also in the downstream river reach. Interestingly, the rating curve obtained from the combined use of documentary information and imagery was nearly as accurate as gauging measurements. The thoughtful comparison of 2D modelled hydraulic variables against inferred values from PSIs and instrumental data supports the paleoflood reconstruction method over fixed beds. Vegetation encroachment provoked 10% deeper floods at the water discharge of 2000 m3 · s−1, which implied an increase of Manning’s roughness coefficient from 0.04 to 0.055 s · m−1/3 in less than 15 years. Full article
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