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Open AccessArticle
Study of the Application of WRF-FLEXPART in Airborne Balloon Movement Simulation
by
Guangjie Wang
Guangjie Wang 1,†,
Luoqi Yang
Luoqi Yang 2,3,†
,
Yegui Wang
Yegui Wang 1,*,
Qifa Cai
Qifa Cai 1,
Juan Li
Juan Li 1,
Weiren Lan
Weiren Lan 1 and
Yongjing Ma
Yongjing Ma 4
1
Key Laboratory of Smart Earth, Beijing 100080, China
2
Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing and Identification of Environmental Changes, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
3
College of Geographic Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
4
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work and should be considered co-first authors.
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14(16), 7041; https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167041 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 4 July 2024
/
Revised: 8 August 2024
/
Accepted: 9 August 2024
/
Published: 11 August 2024
Abstract
In the present era, national borders frequently encounter the risk and threat of unidentified airspace objects such as airborne balloons; however, there is a lack of effective methods for predicting their trajectories. To address this gap, we examine the utilization of a Lagrangian diffusion model named FLEXPART for forecasting the movement of airborne balloons. The simulation results show that when taking into account the radius of the airborne balloon, there is a potential increase of up to 1.07 km and 1.45 km in the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), respectively, in the horizontal direction. Similarly, considering the density of the airborne balloon can also result in an increase of 3.46 km (MAE) and 4.71 km (RMSE) horizontally. Therefore, simplifying them into mass points enables FLEXPART to predict their trajectories with higher accuracy. On this basis, we simulate and comparatively analyze the forward and backward trajectories of an airborne balloon observed in China in 2019 using the FLEXPART model. The results demonstrate that within 11 h, FLEXPART predicts the horizontal trajectory of the balloon, with both RMSE and MAE falling within 50 km. Moreover, when it comes to the vertical direction bias within the 11 h prediction, RMSE and MAE are both below 500 m. Furthermore, trajectory bias gradually diminishes as the forecast time increases. The combination of the sensitivity tests and the results of the actual balloon trajectory simulation confirm that the FLEXPART model is capable of predicting the airborne balloon trajectory.
Share and Cite
MDPI and ACS Style
Wang, G.; Yang, L.; Wang, Y.; Cai, Q.; Li, J.; Lan, W.; Ma, Y.
Study of the Application of WRF-FLEXPART in Airborne Balloon Movement Simulation. Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 7041.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167041
AMA Style
Wang G, Yang L, Wang Y, Cai Q, Li J, Lan W, Ma Y.
Study of the Application of WRF-FLEXPART in Airborne Balloon Movement Simulation. Applied Sciences. 2024; 14(16):7041.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167041
Chicago/Turabian Style
Wang, Guangjie, Luoqi Yang, Yegui Wang, Qifa Cai, Juan Li, Weiren Lan, and Yongjing Ma.
2024. "Study of the Application of WRF-FLEXPART in Airborne Balloon Movement Simulation" Applied Sciences 14, no. 16: 7041.
https://doi.org/10.3390/app14167041
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