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Risks, Volume 11, Issue 9

2023 September - 15 articles

Cover Story: Pandemic bonds, introduced by the World Bank in 2017, offer a unique strategy for transferring government economic losses during pandemics to the global capital market. This study presents a novel pandemic bond pricing framework based on the stochastic logistic growth model. Two numerical examples demonstrate its utility: one assesses investor willingness to pay for a World Bank-issued pandemic bond without COVID-19 data, aiming for an equivalent yield to maturity in pandemic-free scenarios, while the other calculates the fair value of a pandemic bond resembling the World Bank's, using COVID-19 data. This model offers an alternative approach to pricing pandemic bonds compared to epidemic compartmental models. View this paper
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Articles (15)

  • Article
  • Open Access
10 Citations
6,183 Views
29 Pages

19 September 2023

The purpose and novelty of this article is to investigate the extent to which artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT can grasp concepts from quantitative risk management. To this end, we enter a scholarly discussion with ChatGPT in the form of quest...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,249 Views
10 Pages

Cyber Risk Contagion

  • Arianna Agosto and
  • Paolo Giudici

19 September 2023

Financial technologies (fintechs) are continuously expanding, across different markets and financial services. While financial technologies bring many opportunities, such as reduced costs and extended inclusion, they also bring risks, among which inc...

  • Article
  • Open Access
18 Citations
17,226 Views
19 Pages

Machine Learning in Forecasting Motor Insurance Claims

  • Thomas Poufinas,
  • Periklis Gogas,
  • Theophilos Papadimitriou and
  • Emmanouil Zaganidis

18 September 2023

Accurate forecasting of insurance claims is of the utmost importance for insurance activity as the evolution of claims determines cash outflows and the pricing, and thus the profitability, of the underlying insurance coverage. These are used as input...

  • Article
  • Open Access
17 Citations
16,991 Views
20 Pages

Modelling Motor Insurance Claim Frequency and Severity Using Gradient Boosting

  • Carina Clemente,
  • Gracinda R. Guerreiro and
  • Jorge M. Bravo

12 September 2023

Modelling claim frequency and claim severity are topics of great interest in property-casualty insurance for supporting underwriting, ratemaking, and reserving actuarial decisions. Standard Generalized Linear Models (GLM) frequency–severity mod...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2,974 Views
22 Pages

8 September 2023

In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing variance, volatility, covariance and correlation swaps for financial markets with semi-Markov volatilities. The paper’s motivation derives from the fact that in many financial markets, the inter...

  • Article
  • Open Access
1 Citations
2,574 Views
14 Pages

5 September 2023

In this article, we study stochastic orders over an interval. Mainly, we focus on orders related to the Laplace transform. The results are then applied to obtain a bound for heavy-tailed distributions and are illustrated by some examples. We also ind...

  • Article
  • Open Access
56 Citations
41,656 Views
11 Pages

5 September 2023

Healthcare fraud is intentionally submitting false claims or producing misinterpretation of facts to obtain entitlement payments. Thus, it wastes healthcare financial resources and increases healthcare costs. Subsequently, fraud poses a substantial f...

  • Article
  • Open Access
8 Citations
13,634 Views
14 Pages

4 September 2023

This study demonstrates the significant impact of market sentiment, derived from social media, on the daily price prediction of cryptocurrencies in both bull and bear markets. Through the analysis of approximately 567 thousand tweets related to twelv...

  • Article
  • Open Access
4 Citations
4,048 Views
15 Pages

4 September 2023

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is emp...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2,584 Views
44 Pages

Risks for Companies during the COVID-19 Crisis: Dataset Modelling and Management through Digitalisation

  • Tatiana V. Skryl,
  • Elena B. Gerasimova,
  • Yuliya V. Chutcheva and
  • Sergey V. Golovin

31 August 2023

The goal is to create a systemic risk profile of companies during the COVID-19 crisis, which reflects their cause-and-effect relationships and risk management. The research objects are the following types of risks for companies listed in “Globa...

  • Article
  • Open Access
3 Citations
2,084 Views
27 Pages

31 August 2023

Constructing an accurate model for insurance losses is a challenging task. Researchers have developed various methods to model insurance losses, such as composite models. Composite models combine two distributions: one for part of the data with small...

  • Article
  • Open Access
2 Citations
3,533 Views
28 Pages

28 August 2023

Pandemic bonds can be used as an effective tool to mitigate the economic losses that governments face during pandemics and transfer them to the global capital market. Once considered as an “uninsurable” event, pandemic bonds caught the at...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
4,660 Views
14 Pages

25 August 2023

Cyber security importance has escalated globally, driven by its pivotal role in shaping daily life, encompassing both personal and non-personal aspects. Cyber security breach probability functions play a crucial role in comprehending how cyber securi...

  • Article
  • Open Access
20 Citations
5,881 Views
14 Pages

25 August 2023

In light of the function of Internal Auditing and its significance in assessing and ensuring the validity of data, information, reports, and high lists generated by the Accounting Information System and improving its credibility and dependability, th...

  • Article
  • Open Access
5 Citations
3,687 Views
23 Pages

Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model in Mortality Forecasting

  • Wanying Fu,
  • Barry R. Smith,
  • Patrick Brewer and
  • Sean Droms

22 August 2023

We apply a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model to mortality forecasting. MSBVAR has not previously been applied in this context, and our results show that it is a promising tool for mortality forecasting. Our model shows be...

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Risks - ISSN 2227-9091