Tornado Activities in a Changing Climate

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 28 February 2025 | Viewed by 1258

Special Issue Editors

Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
Interests: climate trend and variability of tornado activity; variational computation of boundary layer flux; precipitation; cyclone–cyclone interactions; diagnoses of missed and false-alarmed high-impact events; atmospheric modeling; coupled atmospheric–hydrological processes
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Guest Editor
U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM 88002, USA
Interests: mesoscale meteorology; radar meteorology; nowcasting; NWP model data assimilation and verification
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Tornadoes are one of the most destructive weather phenomena on Earth, and their activities have significant impacts on society in terms of loss of life and property damages, especially under a changing climate. Very often when severe tornado events occur, the public and media often raise numerous questions related to tornadoes and their relationship with climate change. Besides, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has drawn its attention to these questions, such as how localized severe weather activities (e.g., tornadoes) are altered under a changing climate, even though it is challenging to identify the influences of climate warming on tornado activity. In this Special Issue, we are helping to answer some unresolved scientific questions of concern to the IPCC and the public. Topics in this Special Issue include, but are not limited to, the following:

  1. Trend analysis of tornado activity;
  2. Variability of tornado occurrence frequency;
  3. Case studies of extreme tornado events and outbreaks;
  4. Recent tornado observation technologies with high spatial and temporal resolutions;
  5. Recent laboratory experiments on tornado structure and evolution;
  6. Numerical simulations of high-impact tornado episodes;
  7. Analytic investigation of tornadogenesis;
  8. Diagnosis of tornado formation, maintenance, and disappearance;
  9. Relationship between tornado trend, variability, extreme events, and changing climates;
  10. Tornado activities associated with large-scale environments in a changing climate;
  11. Teleconnection and tornado activities;
  12. Tornado forecasting techniques in various scales.

Dr. Zuohao Cao
Dr. Huaqing Cai
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • tornado
  • trend analysis
  • variability
  • case study
  • observational technology
  • laboratory experiment
  • numerical simulation
  • analytic method
  • diagnosis
  • large-scale environment and changing climates
  • teleconnection
  • forecast technique

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

16 pages, 2970 KiB  
Article
Quantifying Tornado Outbreak Intensity and Frequency Relationships with Interannual and Monthly Variability
by Andrew Mercer, Kenneth Swan and Adonte Knight
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 909; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080909 - 30 Jul 2024
Viewed by 729
Abstract
Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we [...] Read more.
Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are highly dangerous meteorological phenomena common in the United States and have limited known relationships with climate variability. Many of the challenges in understanding TOs result from a lack of formal TO quantification (both in definition and impact). Here, we present a TO definition based on a spatially cohesive and distinct region of tornado activity and present a TO intensity index using tornado characteristics within the TO region. In developing this index, we present a support vector regression-based detrending methodology to remove the secular trends within tornado reporting. The resulting TO definition suggests a decline in TO activity of roughly 1 TO per 4–5 years, with a similar decline in TO intensity. In addition, the relationship between this new quantification of TOs and common North American interannual and monthly climate variability indices is explored, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Pacific North American Oscillation. In general, the links between these teleconnections and TO frequency and intensity were minimal (and sometimes in opposition when comparing TO frequency and intensity), but interesting patterns emerged that may offer an initial pathway to exploring longer-term TO predictability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tornado Activities in a Changing Climate)
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