The Challenge of Weather and Climate Prediction (2nd Edition)

Dear Colleagues，

This Special Issue is the second volume of the Special Issue titled "The Challenge of Weather and Climate Prediction”, which was published in Atmosphere in 2025: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/VI821FU9JO.

Weather and climate prediction (forecasting) are among the greatest challenges faced in theoretical and applied atmospheric science. Both require comprehensive theoretical knowledge and extensive operational systems. The first successful numerical weather forecast for one day in advance was achieved in the 1950s, when computers began to operate and so-called filtered atmospheric models were utilized. During the 1990s, a novel but basic equation atmospheric model was employed on a global scale; this was operational after the application of a specific data assimilation procedure. Very soon after that, the application of coupled atmosphere and ocean models resulted in the prolongation of the forecasting period of up to five or six days in advance. Unfortunately, due to the presence of deterministic chaos in the atmosphere–ocean dynamic system, long-range forecasting is limited. Ensemble forecasting is a useful probabilistic component of the forecasting system as it is able to inform us of the reliability of medium-range weather forecasting. As time goes on, the reliability decreases; thus, after 10 days, medium-range weather forecasts are considered non-reliable. However, if atmosphere–ocean global models are considered boundary condition problems instead of initial condition problems, then useful seasonal and even centennial outlooks can be achieved, but with “condensed” products. Determining the limitations of weather and climate forecasting can be achieved by comparing forecasts with real observations, i.e., via forecast verification.

Dr. Kreso Pandzic
Dr. Tanja Likso
Guest Editors

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