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Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis

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A special issue of Entropy (ISSN 1099-4300). This special issue belongs to the section "Multidisciplinary Applications".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2023) | Viewed by 11208

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Peng Han

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Guest Editor

Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Interests: earthquake forecast; statistical seismology; seismo-electromagnetics; signal processing; micro-seismic monitoring
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Dr. Jiancang Zhuang

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Guest Editor

Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Kanagawa 240-0193, Japan
Interests: statistical seismology; Bayesian inversion; point process; statistical forecast; spatial statistics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Prof. Dr. Changsheng Jiang

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Guest Editor

Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Interests: induced seismicity; statistical seismology; earthquake forecast; strategy of disaster reduction; seismic network design

Dr. Jiawei Li

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Guest Editor

Institute of Risk Analysis, Prediction and Management (Risks-X), Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Interests: statistical seismology; real-time seismology; earthquake early warning; earthquake risk analysis; source kinematics

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Assessing seismic hazards and analyzing the risk (probability) of strong earthquakes is of great significance for earthquake disaster mitigation and preparedness. In this practice, statistical methods and entropy/information theory are widely utilized to identify the spatial-temporal pattern of past seismicity with uncertainty quantification, to validate proposed forecasting models, and investigate the risk potential of future strong earthquakes. Although a high-quality earthquake catalog has dramatically accumulated in the past several decades, current seismicity-based statistical models are often hindered by the frequent lack of data in the high magnitude range, which may cause deviation when fitting typical relations, e.g., the Gutenberg–Richter law. In addition, the precision of the numerical source models and their closeness to the real-world processes determine the accuracy of simulated seismicity to characterize real tectonic and seismic activities. Further success on this front requires new techniques and applications of statistical models and entropy/information theory toward earthquake hazard assessment and risk analysis, for the sophistication of known techniques, as well as for an improved understanding of the seismicity pattern operating in the Earth’s crust. Contributions addressing any of these issues are very welcome.

This Special Issue aims to provide a forum for the presentation of new and improved statistical methods for earthquake hazard assessment and risk analysis. In particular, the analysis and interpretation of real-world seismicity with the help of statistical tools falls within the scope of this Special Issue. This Special Issue will accept unpublished original research papers and reviews focused on (but not restricted to) the following research topics:

Seismic signal processing, earthquake location and catalog evaluation.
Seismogenic structure and its relation to the spatial distribution of earthquakes.
New insights into the spatial-temporal statistical pattern of seismicity.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on statistical and/or physical models.
Evaluation of probabilistic forecast based on earthquake hazard models.
Identification and test of precursory phenomena in seismicity or other physical/chemical observations before strong earthquakes.
Physical predictability of long-term earthquakes and its observational evidence.
Capability and limit of analysis of seismicity in long-term earthquake forecasting.
Validity of physical models in understanding the characteristics of seismicity.

Dr. Peng Han
Dr. Jiancang Zhuang
Prof. Dr. Changsheng Jiang
Dr. Jiawei Li
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

statistical seismology
seismic hazard assessment
earthquake risk analysis
earthquake forecasting/prediction
earthquake modeling
stochastic test

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

13 pages, 19897 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Time-Varying GPS Displacement Network Modeling by Sequential Monte Carlo

by Suchanun Piriyasatit, Ercan Engin Kuruoglu and Mehmet Sinan Ozeren

Entropy 2024, 26(4), 342; https://doi.org/10.3390/e26040342 - 18 Apr 2024

Viewed by 454

Abstract

Geodetic observations through high-rate GPS time-series data allow the precise modeling of slow ground deformation at the millimeter level. However, significant attention has been devoted to utilizing these data for various earth science applications, including to determine crustal velocity fields and to detect significant displacement from earthquakes. The relationships inherent in these GPS displacement observations have not been fully explored. This study employs the sequential Monte Carlo method, specifically particle filtering (PF), to develop a time-varying analysis of the relationships among GPS displacement time-series within a network, with the aim of uncovering network dynamics. Additionally, we introduce a proposed graph representation to enhance the understanding of these relationships. Using the 1-Hz GEONET GNSS network data of the Tohoku-Oki Mw9.0 2011 as a demonstration, the results demonstrate successful parameter tracking that clarifies the observations’ underlying dynamics. These findings have potential applications in detecting anomalous displacements in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis)

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16 pages, 7280 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Automatic P-Phase-Onset-Time-Picking Method of Microseismic Monitoring Signal of Underground Mine Based on Noise Reduction and Multiple Detection Indexes

by Rui Dai, Yibo Wang, Da Zhang and Hu Ji

Entropy 2023, 25(10), 1451; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25101451 - 16 Oct 2023

Viewed by 852

Abstract

The underground pressure disaster caused by the exploitation of deep mineral resources has become a major hidden danger restricting the safe production of mines. Microseismic monitoring technology is a universally recognized means of underground pressure monitoring and early warning. In this paper, the wavelet coefficient threshold denoising method in the time–frequency domain, STA/LTA method, AIC method, and skew and kurtosis method are studied, and the automatic P-phase-onset-time-picking model based on noise reduction and multiple detection indexes is established. Through the effect analysis of microseismic signals collected by microseismic monitoring system of coral Tungsten Mine in Guangxi, automatic P-phase onset time picking is realized, the reliability of the P-phase-onset-time-picking method proposed in this paper based on noise reduction and multiple detection indexes is verified. The picking accuracy can still be guaranteed under the severe signal interference of background noise, power frequency interference and manual activity in the underground mine, which is of great significance to the data processing and analysis of microseismic monitoring. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis)

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10 pages, 2355 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Comprehensive Numerical Model for Reservoir-Induced Earthquake Risk Assessment

by Xuefeng Peng, Rong Zhao and Kai Deng

Entropy 2023, 25(10), 1383; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25101383 - 26 Sep 2023

Viewed by 861

Abstract

The assessment of seismic risk and the prevention of earthquake occurrences during reservoir operation present significant challenges in terms of accurate determination. This study aims to address this issue by developing a numerical model. The primary objective is to estimate the vulnerability of different fault types to reservoir impoundment. This model integrates essential parameters such as fault dip and the relative orientation between the reservoir and potential earthquakes, and it is structured within a risk framework using polar coordinates. Through comprehensive computations, we evaluate the alterations in elastic stress and fluid pore pressure resulting from water impoundment. This is achieved by employing a fully coupled two-dimensional poroelastic approach. Furthermore, our model incorporates relevant seismic data to enhance its accuracy. The findings of our study underscore that the critical factor lies in the fault’s precise positioning with respect to the reservoir. The risk associated with a fault is contingent upon both its location and its orientation, emphasizing the importance of these factors in determining hazardous zones. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis)

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15 pages, 11412 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Optimized Traffic Light System with AIC and Application to the 2021 M6.7 Yangbi Earthquake Sequence

by Rui Wang, Ying Chang, Peng Han, Miao Miao, Zhiyi Zeng, Haixia Shi, Danning Li, Lifang Liu and Youjin Su

Entropy 2023, 25(5), 759; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25050759 - 06 May 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1284

Abstract

One important question in earthquake prediction is whether a moderate or large earthquake will be followed by an even bigger one. Through temporal b-value evolution analysis, the traffic light system can be used to estimate if an earthquake is a foreshock. However, the traffic light system does not take into account the uncertainty of b-values when they constitute a criterion. In this study, we propose an optimization of the traffic light system with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and bootstrap. The traffic light signals are controlled by the significance level of the difference in b-value between the sample and the background rather than an arbitrary constant. We applied the optimized traffic light system to the 2021 Yangbi earthquake sequence, which could be explicitly recognized as foreshock–mainshock–aftershock using the temporal and spatial variations in b-values. In addition, we used a new statistical parameter related to the distance between earthquakes to track earthquake nucleation features. We also confirmed that the optimized traffic light system works on a high-resolution catalog that includes small-magnitude earthquakes. The comprehensive consideration of b-value, significance probability, and seismic clustering might improve the reliability of earthquake risk judgment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis)

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13 pages, 14450 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Earthquake Nowcasting: Retrospective Testing in Greece

by Gerasimos Chouliaras, Efthimios S. Skordas and Nicholas V. Sarlis

Entropy 2023, 25(2), 379; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25020379 - 19 Feb 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 6390

Abstract

Earthquake nowcasting (EN) is a modern method of estimating seismic risk by evaluating the progress of the earthquake (EQ) cycle in fault systems. EN evaluation is based on a new concept of time, termed ’natural time’. EN employs natural time, and uniquely estimates seismic risk by means of the earthquake potential score (EPS), which has been found to have useful applications both regionally and globally. Amongst these applications, here we focused on Greece since 2019, for the estimation of the EPS for the largest-magnitude events,

M_{W}

(USGS) ≥ 6, that occurred during our study period: for example, the

M_{W} =

6.0 WNW-of-Kissamos EQ on 27 November 2019, the

M_{W} =

6.5 off-shore Southern Crete EQ on 2 May 2020, the

M_{W} =

7.0 Samos EQ on 30 October 2020, the

M_{W} =

6.3 Tyrnavos EQ on 3 March 2021, the

M_{W} =

6.0 Arkalohorion Crete EQ on 27 September 2021, and the

M_{W} =

6.4 Sitia Crete EQ on 12 October 2021. The results are promising, and reveal that the EPS provides useful information on impending seismicity. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Methods for Earthquake Hazard Assessment and Risk Analysis)

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