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Introduction to the Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change Impacts on Developing Countries: Selected Studies on Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia

by Wisdom Akpalu, Channing Arndt and Innocent Matshe

Sustainability 2015, 7(9), 12122-12126; https://doi.org/10.3390/su70912122 - 1 Sep 2015

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4743

Abstract

Within the last century, the global average temperature increased by about 1 °C and this rate of increase may accelerate over the course of the 21st century [1]. Although estimates of climate change are based on projections and probabilistic assessments, ample evidence exists [...] Read more.

Within the last century, the global average temperature increased by about 1 °C and this rate of increase may accelerate over the course of the 21st century [1]. Although estimates of climate change are based on projections and probabilistic assessments, ample evidence exists that climate change impacts are likely to become more profound in this century, particularly if mitigation policies are absent or inadequate [1,2]. It has been argued that, relative to keeping the warming at 2 °C or lower, the global cost of continuing with “business as usual” may be 5 to 20 times higher [3,4]. [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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941 KiB

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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Road Infrastructure in Ghana

by Daniel Kwabena Twerefou, Paul Chinowsky, Kwame Adjei-Mantey and Niko Lazar Strzepek

Sustainability 2015, 7(9), 11949-11966; https://doi.org/10.3390/su70911949 - 28 Aug 2015

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 7887

Abstract

This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on road infrastructure using the stressor-response methodology. Our analysis indicates that it could cumulatively (2020–2100) cost Ghana $473 million to maintain and repair damages caused to existing roads as a result of climate change [...] Read more.

This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on road infrastructure using the stressor-response methodology. Our analysis indicates that it could cumulatively (2020–2100) cost Ghana $473 million to maintain and repair damages caused to existing roads as a result of climate change (no adapt scenario). However, if the country adapts the design and construction of new road infrastructure, expected to occur over the asset’s lifespan (adapt scenario), the total cumulative cost could increase to $678.47 million due to the initial costs of adaptation. This investment provides lower costs on a decadal basis later in the infrastructure lifespan. This creates the planning question of whether lower decadal costs in the future are a priority or if minimizing initial costs is a priority. The paper addresses this question through decadal and average annual costs up to the year 2100 for the ten regions, using the potential impacts of 54 distinct potential climate scenarios. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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680 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling Fuel Choice among Households in Northern Cameroon

by Jean Hugues Nlom and Aziz A. Karimov

Sustainability 2015, 7(8), 9989-9999; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7089989 - 24 Jul 2015

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 6331

Abstract

The present study aims to explore economic and socio-demographic factors that influence a household’s probability to switch from firewood to cleaner fuels (kerosene and LPG) in northern Cameroon. The paper employs an ordered probit model to construct cooking patterns and fuel choices. Three [...] Read more.

The present study aims to explore economic and socio-demographic factors that influence a household’s probability to switch from firewood to cleaner fuels (kerosene and LPG) in northern Cameroon. The paper employs an ordered probit model to construct cooking patterns and fuel choices. Three main cooking sources are considered: firewood, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas. Utilized data are derived from a national survey conducted in 2004 by the Cameroonian National Institute of Statistics. The study analyzes the data related to the Sudano-Sahelian agro-ecological zone, which is one of the most affected by land degradation and decertification. While results indicate that there is a potential for a transition from traditional to cleaner fuels in the studied region, this transition is still in its earlier stage. The research demonstrates that firewood and kerosene prices, age of household heads, educational level of household heads and willingness to have a gas cylinder, as well as type of dwelling have a statistically significant impact on fuel-switching decisions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

186 KiB

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Optimum Fisheries Management under Climate Variability: Evidence from Artisanal Marine Fishing in Ghana

by Wisdom Akpalu, Isaac Dasmani and Ametefee K. Normanyo

Sustainability 2015, 7(6), 7942-7958; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7067942 - 19 Jun 2015

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5995

Abstract

In most developing coastal countries, the artisanal fisheries sector is managed as a common pool resource. As a result, such fisheries are overcapitalized and overfished. In Ghana, in addition to anthropogenic factors, there is evidence of rising coastal temperature and its variance, which [...] Read more.

In most developing coastal countries, the artisanal fisheries sector is managed as a common pool resource. As a result, such fisheries are overcapitalized and overfished. In Ghana, in addition to anthropogenic factors, there is evidence of rising coastal temperature and its variance, which could impact the environmental carrying capacity of the fish stock. This study investigates the effect of climate variation on biophysical parameters and yields. Our results indicate that the rising temperature is decreasing the carrying capacity. As a result, an optimum tax on harvest must reflect climate variability, as well as the congestion externality. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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400 KiB

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Tenure Insecurity, Climate Variability and Renting out Decisions among Female Small-Holder Farmers in Ethiopia

by Wisdom Akpalu and Mintewab Bezabih

Sustainability 2015, 7(6), 7926-7941; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7067926 - 19 Jun 2015

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4872

Abstract

Land tenure arrangements in Africa are generally skewed in favour of males. Compared to males, female plot owners face complex sets of constraints and systemic high tenure insecurity which culminate in low yields. In order to obtain better returns, some females rent their [...] Read more.

Land tenure arrangements in Africa are generally skewed in favour of males. Compared to males, female plot owners face complex sets of constraints and systemic high tenure insecurity which culminate in low yields. In order to obtain better returns, some females rent their plots to males, but risk losing the plots to their tenants. A model has been constructed to explain renting-out decisions of female small landholders, an issue largely ignored in the agricultural economics literature. The results, based on a survey of female landholders in Ethiopia, highlight the factors that explain renting-out decisions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

397 KiB

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Implications of Climate Change for Ghana’s Economy

by Channing Arndt, Felix Asante and James Thurlow

Sustainability 2015, 7(6), 7214-7231; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7067214 - 4 Jun 2015

Cited by 33 | Viewed by 12811

Abstract

Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, hydropower and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by detailed sector studies, to estimate the economy-wide impacts of climate [...] Read more.

Long-run economic development in Ghana is potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change given the country’s dependence on rain-fed agriculture, hydropower and unpaved rural roads. We use a computable general equilibrium model, informed by detailed sector studies, to estimate the economy-wide impacts of climate change under four climate projections. Climate change is found to always reduce national welfare, with poor and urban households and the northern Savannah zone being the worst affected. However, there is wide variation across scenarios in the size of climate impacts and in the relative importance of sectoral impact channels, thus underscoring the need for multi-sector approaches that account for climate uncertainty. Our analysis of adaptation options indicates that investing in agricultural research and extension, and improved road surfaces, are potentially cost-effective means of mitigating most of the damages from climate change in Ghana. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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Modeling Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture Demand in the Volta Basin and other Basin Systems in Ghana

by Barnabas A. Amisigo, Alyssa McCluskey and Richard Swanson

Sustainability 2015, 7(6), 6957-6975; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7066957 - 29 May 2015

Cited by 57 | Viewed by 11343

Abstract

An assessment of the impacts of projected climate change on water availability and crop production in the Volta Basin and the southwestern and coastal basin systems of Ghana has been undertaken as a component of the impacts and adaptation study for Ghana by [...] Read more.

An assessment of the impacts of projected climate change on water availability and crop production in the Volta Basin and the southwestern and coastal basin systems of Ghana has been undertaken as a component of the impacts and adaptation study for Ghana by UNU-WIDER and the University of Ghana. Four climate change scenarios were considered in addition to a reference (no change) scenario—two dry and two wet scenarios. To conduct the analysis, a portion of a special framework using three water models was used; the framework is called the Strategic Analysis of Climate resilient Development (SACReD). First, the CliRun water balance model was used to simulate catchment runoffs using projected rainfall and temperature under the scenarios. Second, climate impacts on yields of the economically important Ghana crops were modeled using the AquaCrop software. Third, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software was used for the water allocation modeling. The results show that all water demands (municipal, hydropower, and agriculture) cannot be simultaneously met currently, or under any of the scenarios used, including the wet scenarios. This calls for an evaluation of groundwater as an additional source of water supply and an integrated water resources management plan in the catchments to balance demand with supply and ensure sustainable socio-economic development. In addition, the AquaCrop model forecasts negative impacts for the crop yields studied, with some crops and regions seeing larger impacts than others. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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5558 KiB

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Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

by James E. Neumann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Sai Ravela, Lindsay C. Ludwig and Caroleen Verly

Sustainability 2015, 7(6), 6553-6572; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7066553 - 26 May 2015

Cited by 55 | Viewed by 15265

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for [...] Read more.

This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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1084 KiB

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Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

by Wassie Berhanu and Fekadu Beyene

Sustainability 2015, 7(6), 6353-6375; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7066353 - 25 May 2015

Cited by 53 | Viewed by 9744

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change [...] Read more.

This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term declines, trends in the region’s rainfall also appear to have taken a shift towards the direction of more unpredictability. Pastoralist adaptation response strategies broadly involve adjustments in pastoral practices and shifts to non-pastoral livelihoods. Results of the estimated models confirm that pastoral mobility is still quite essential in the present context of climate-induced household vulnerabilities. Increased mobility and diversification of pastoral herd portfolios in favor of a drought-tolerant species (camel) are found to be positively associated with pastoral household net income. A policy stance that ignores the detrimental impacts of the currently pervasive private rangeland enclosures or intends to hasten pastoralist sedentarization in the area is simply untenable in the present context of climate-induced risks and pastoral livelihood vulnerability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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1323 KiB

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Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam

by Paul S. Chinowsky, Amy E. Schweikert, Niko Strzepek and Kenneth Strzepek

Sustainability 2015, 7(5), 5452-5470; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7055452 - 5 May 2015

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 18788

Abstract

Climate change is a potential threat to Vietnam’s development as current and future infrastructure will be vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating the potential impact of changes from stressors, including: [...] Read more.

Climate change is a potential threat to Vietnam’s development as current and future infrastructure will be vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating the potential impact of changes from stressors, including: sea level rise, precipitation, temperature and flooding. Across 56 climate scenarios, the mean additional cost of maintaining the same road network through 2050 amount to US$10.5 billion. The potential scale of these impacts establishes climate change adaptation as an important component of planning and policy in the current and near future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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778 KiB

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The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam

by Channing Arndt, Finn Tarp and James Thurlow

Sustainability 2015, 7(4), 4131-4145; https://doi.org/10.3390/su7044131 - 9 Apr 2015

Cited by 27 | Viewed by 12637

Abstract

We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are [...] Read more.

We adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest to 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are net benefits from selected pre-emptive actions though careful consideration of opportunity costs is required. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economics of climate change impacts on developing countries: Selected studies on Sub-Sahara Africa and South-East Asia)

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