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Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World

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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (27 April 2023) | Viewed by 10882

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Prof. Dr. Afees A. Salisu

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Centre for Econometrics and Applied Research, Ibadan, Nigeria
Interests: macro-econometric modelling and forecasting with special interests in energy economics; macroeconomics; financial economics and climate risks
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly received a great deal of attention among academics and practitioners. As new variants of the pandemic continue to unfold, dealing with the associated uncertainties both in the short- and long-term is crucial. While the literature is currently replete with the economic consequences of the pandemic, a very limited number of studies have addressed appropriate strategies based on empirical evidence that will facilitate economic recovery from the pandemic. Thus, this Special Issue (SI) intends to publish high-quality research papers that provide practical insights into the design of optimal policies for a faster recovery from the pandemic in a way that puts the global economy on the path of growth which is at least comparable to the pre-pandemic levels. Deeper analyses that offer actionable policy actions geared towards promoting greater economic prospects across countries are encouraged.

Specifically, the SI welcomes papers that:

1. Provide the hedging possibilities against the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic

2. Offer short-, medium-, and long-term projections on the recovery process of the global economy

3. Develop new datasets that help track the recovery process of the global economy

4. Use new methods and or new/updated datasets to estimate the recovery process of the global economy.

Prof. Afees A. Salisu
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

COVID-19
hedging
economic projections
growth trajectory
simulation and scenario analyses

Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

22 pages, 1198 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Vietnam Tourism Recovery Strategies after COVID-19 Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach

by Wu-Chung Lin, Chihkang Kenny Wu, Thi Kim Trang Le and Ngoc Anh Nguyen

Sustainability 2023, 15(13), 10047; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310047 - 25 Jun 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2822

Abstract

Tourism is the economic sector most heavily influenced by COVID-19, and it has suffered unprecedented losses. The competitiveness and resilience of the tourism industry have recently become a topic of great concern for global stakeholders. A series of ambitious recovery strategies have been announced by countries to rebuild the tourism industry, that aim to make “smokeless industry” more resilient and sustainable. The objective of this study is to evaluate and rank the effectiveness of nine recovery strategies in the post-COVID-19 period for Vietnam’s tourism industry. A combined model of the Best–Worst Method (BWM) and the Group Best Worst Method (GBWM), an efficient tool using the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, is used to rank the tourism solutions. The assessment process is carried out by six stakeholder groups considered decision makers, including tourism operators, enterprises, scholars, employees, residents, and tourists. In the context of Vietnam, the most influential tourism recovery strategy is using innovative tourism business models (ST2), which is a solid step forward in utilizing potential resources, meeting current tourism needs, and adapting to natural changes. The model results reflect that the tourism model’s restructuring is necessary to provide new types of experiences and entertainment suitable for the new tourism context. The findings illustrate that the priority of strategies depends on the perception of decision-makers, levels of involvement in the tourism industry, and local conditions. The study has contributed a theoretical framework for tourism recovery solutions and decision support in the post-pandemic stage. The model can be applied to other countries worldwide in improving tourism performance or assisting in decision-making for similar issues. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World)

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11 pages, 235 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Industry Structure of Commercial Districts and the Impact of COVID-19

by Sung Hyo Hong, Junhong Im and Gyoungju Lee

Sustainability 2023, 15(11), 8905; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118905 - 31 May 2023

Viewed by 725

Abstract

This paper aims to empirically analyze the difference in the closure rate of the commercial district according to the industry structure of the commercial district. Theoretically, the larger the number of stores in a commercial district, the greater the positive externality caused by the agglomeration economies in consumption, namely, the external economies of scale. However, the agglomeration economies could occur from comparison shopping or one-stop shopping, depending on the business structure of the commercial district. According to the empirical results of the regression analysis of all 1164 commercial districts in Korea, the more specialized a commercial district is by stores in a specific industry, the lower the closure rate of that commercial district. This means that the agglomeration economies in consumption are driven by comparison shopping rather than by one-stop shopping and implies that it is necessary to introduce incentives that allow stores in the same industry to cluster together in terms of policy. Meanwhile, if the closure is limited to a specific industry, it will cause an endogeneity problem since it affects the industry structure of the commercial district. Considering this, as a result of additional estimation by 2SLS and GMM using instrumental variables, the error in estimation due to the endogeneity problem was not large, confirming that COVID-19 corresponds to an overall external shock that is not limited to a specific industry. In addition, this paper presents diagnostic indicators for commercial districts to measure the impact of COVID-19. Through this, it will be possible to alleviate conflicts between social classes over compensation or subsidies for sanctions for quarantine. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time to use all commercial districts in Korea for a research in evaluating the impact of COVID-19, and empirical results on agglomeration economies focusing on the consumption side are limited. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World)

17 pages, 3665 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Emerging Key Elements of a Business Model for Sustaining the Cultural and Creative Industries in the Post-Pandemic Era

by Aleck Chao-Hung Lin

Sustainability 2023, 15(11), 8903; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118903 - 31 May 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1719

Abstract

In this article, the challenges that cultural and creative industry (CCI) firms face in forming sustainable business models—issues heightened by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the evolving consumer patterns that it has triggered—are addressed. The goal of this study was to identify a set of unique key elements crucial for the construction of a business model that aligns with the distinct characteristics of CCIs. To achieve this goal, an in-depth, long-term study using semi-structured interviews with proprietors in Eastern Taiwan was conducted. This region is home to unique, small-scale cultural and creative businesses and represents less than 5% of Taiwan’s population. The semi-structured, in-depth interviews served as the data collection method, while content analysis was used for data interpretation. This approach allowed the current study to encapsulate a set of key elements that could inform the creation of a business model for CCI firms. The insights gathered by the study provide a robust framework for the development of sustainable CCI business models, offering valuable guidance for both existing businesses seeking to adapt and grow and new entrepreneurs entering the industry. This research also aims to stimulate further scholarly debate on the importance of a tailored, multidisciplinary business model for CCIs, given their unique needs and characteristics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World)

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20 pages, 1158 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland

by Adrian Tudor Tudorache and Luminița Nicolescu

Sustainability 2023, 15(11), 8726; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118726 - 29 May 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1469

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis disrupted the economic life of the entire world and caused various disturbances at different levels in economies and societies. Consequently, the study of the economic impact of the health crisis became necessary to identify the influences that the health crisis had on numerous activities, including economic ones. There are calls for more studies to be conducted about the effects of COVID-19 at different levels so that lessons can be learned. The present paper answers these calls and focuses on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on international trade at the country level by investigating two European countries, Romania and Poland. First, it analyzes the macro-level context of the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, a regression methodology is employed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 burden (which includes the number of cases and the number of deaths related to COVID-19) on the export and import flows in Romania and Poland. The investigation refers to the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021, which were the most significant. The results of the regression analysis showed that international trade was affected by the COVID-19 burden in the two countries, but the influences were different in the two countries. Exports and imports in Poland were more affected by COVID-19 than exports and imports in Romania. COVID-19 also had a higher impact on the import than the export flows in both countries during the period considered. The negative assumed relationships between COVID-19 burden and international trade flows were not verified in these specific country cases. This paper provides more evidence about the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, contributing to a better understanding of the economic effects of health crises in general. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World)

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15 pages, 3527 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Pandemic Waves’ Impact on the Crude Oil Price and the Rise of Consumer Price Index: Case Study for Six European Countries

by Costin Radu Boldea, Bogdan Ion Boldea and Tiberiu Iancu

Sustainability 2023, 15(8), 6537; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086537 - 12 Apr 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1514

Abstract

This study examines the response of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in local currency to the COVID-19 pandemic using monthly data (March 2020–February 2022), comparatively for six European countries. We have introduced a model of multivariate adaptive regression that considers the quasi-periodic effects of pandemic waves in combination with the global effect of the economic shock to model the variation in the price of crude oil at international levels and to compare the induced effect of the pandemic restriction as well and the oil price variation on each country’s CPI. The model was tested for the case of six emergent countries and developed European countries. The findings show that: (i) pandemic restrictions are driving a sharp rise in the CPI, and consequently inflation, in most European countries except Greece and Spain, and (ii) the emergent economies are more affected by the oil price and pandemic restriction than the developed ones. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World)

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14 pages, 305 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating the Effects of COVID-19 and Vaccination on Employment Behaviour: A Panel Data Analysis Acrossthe World

by Ezzeddine Belgacem Mosbah and Parakramaweera Sunil Dharmapala

Sustainability 2022, 14(15), 9675; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159675 - 5 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1596

Abstract

COVID-19 is a fast-invading virus that quickly invaded the human body and made no human activity immune to its infections. The purpose of this study is to simulate the effects of COVID-19 on employment behaviour and vaccination’s weight in the recovery process. Based on quarterly panel data from 43 nations from 2018 to 2020, we built an adaptive employment model. The major findings demonstrate that COVID-19 has negative and large net and second effects, with parameters of −7049 and −15,768 employees each quarter for 100,000 infected people, respectively. While immunization has a positive net effect of 10,900 employees every quarter, it has a negative second effect of −29,817 employees. This last result may look strange, but it is rational and demonstrates that immunizations modify employees’ behaviour toward prevention measures, leading to actions such as resuming mobility, reopening, cancelling confinement, and so on, even though COVID-19 continues to spread. Demand, the labour force, the short-term multiplier, and immunization appear to have a positive and large impact on employment behaviour, while average labour productivity appears to have a negative impact. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Recovery and Prospects in a Post-COVID-19 World)

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