Basin Analysis and Modelling

The hydrological assessment of the Vistula River basin in the near future will be a key element in the development of strategies to adapt agriculture to climate change. The Vistula River basin covers 61% of Poland’s area (190,062 km²) and is mainly used for agricultural production. The aim of this study is to assess the water balance of the Vistula River basin from the perspective of 2050 based on the analysis of two climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and the three climate models ICHEC-EC-EARTH_KNMI-RACMO22E (A), ICHEC-EC-EARTH_DMI-HIRHAM5 (B), and ICHEC-EC-EARTH_SMHI-RCA4 (C). This paper presents the steps in the development of the SWAT model and the results of the hydrological analysis of the Vistula catchment. Calibration and validation of the model were carried out using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP programme for 2013–2018. The data used to calibrate the SWAT model are monthly flow measurements [m³/s] from the measurement station in Tczew, located near the estuary of the Vistula basin to the Baltic Sea. The summary result of the work is the results of modelling the flow of the Vistula River catchment for different climate scenarios in the 2020–2050 perspective. The average annual precipitation for all projections in 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 will be higher by up to 22% (763 mm) (RCP 8.5.C for 2041–2050) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation years (624 mm). The average annual temperature for most climate projections for 2021–2030 will fall to as low as 8.7 °C (RCP 4.5.B) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation period (9.2 °C). In contrast, for all projections in 2031–2040 and 2041–2050, the average annual temperature will increase to as much as 10.3 °C (RCP 8.5.C). The simulation results for the climate projections (2020–2050) indicate that there are no clear trends of change in the water management of the Vistula River basin for the coming decades. According to scenarios RCP 4.5.A, RCP 8.5.A, and RCP 8.5.B, the annual sums of potential evapotranspiration show a slight downward trend. On the other hand, for the RCP 8.5.C and RCP 4.5.C projections and the climate change scenario RCP 4.5.B, the results obtained show a slight upward trend in the annual sum of potential evapotranspiration. For the overall evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration assessment for all climate projections analysed, the annual evapotranspiration total shows a clear increase compared to the 2013–2018 baseline period. The average annual actual evapotranspiration for all projections in 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 will increase up to 467 mm (RCP 4.5.A—2021–2030) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation period of 401 mm. The average annual potential evapotranspiration for all projections in 2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050 will increase up to 755 mm (RCP 8.5.C—2031–2040) compared to the 2013–2018 simulation period—616 mm. The analysis of the total runoff in all climate models for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows that the annual average total runoff tends to decrease. The results of the simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 scenario, which are generally characterised by an increase in total runoff in subsequent years, are different. When analysing annual total runoff on a regional basis, it appears that for most of the climate projections analysed (except for the RCP 8.5.A scenario), annual runoff will be lower, especially in the lowlands in the central part of the Vistula basin. In regions where the increase in precipitation is greatest in the north-western and southern basins, higher total runoff should be expected. The analysis of the total runoff in all climate models for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows that the annual average total runoff tends to decrease. The results of the simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 scenario, which are generally characterised by an increase in total runoff in subsequent years, are different. When analysing annual total runoff on a regional basis, it appears that for most of the climate projections analysed (except for the RCP 8.5.A scenario), annual runoff will be lower, especially in the lowlands in the central part of the Vistula basin. In regions where the increase in precipitation is greatest in the north-western and southern basins, higher total runoff should be expected. Full article

Local geological and tectonic processes have been pivotal in shaping the diverse sedimentation patterns observed in Jordan, forming sub-basins characterized by elevated organic matter content (TOC). This study aims to characterize the Maastrichtian basin, focusing on sedimentation rates using calcareous nannofossils and understanding paleoecological and paleo-oceanic conditions. It offers insights into the paleoenvironmental factors impacting oil shale deposition in the late Maastrichtian–Paleocene period. It employs classical biostratigraphical, semi-quantitative, and statistical methodologies to achieve its objectives of age determination and paleoecological insights. A total of 116 smear slides from two sites were obtained: the first, consisting of WA-1 (23 samples), WA-2 (18 samples), and WA-3 (11 samples), and the second, with 60 samples. Notably, the sites exhibit varying topography. WA-1 and WA-2, situated at lower elevations, have the highest Total Organic Carbon (TOC) levels, while areas with higher elevations in section four are visually identified by a light color. The study revealed varying patterns of calcareous nannofossil richness in the two investigated sites. These patterns were instrumental in defining biozones, with the utilization of marker species such as Lithraphidites quadratus, Micula murus, Micula prinsii, and Cruciplacolithus tenuis. Chronologically, these sections were classified as Maastrichtian–Paleogene, encompassing the following biozones in sequential order: UC-20a, UC-20b, UC-20c, UC-20d, and NP-2. Furthermore, the study identified two hiatus intervals, observed in sections WA-1 and KAS-1. The absence of certain biozones in the analyzed sections suggests that these sections correspond to distinct geological blocks within the basin, underscoring the role of tectonic forces during the deposition period. The sedimentation rate initially commenced at low levels but gradually increased due to topographic alterations. Notably, the biozone UC-20c demonstrated a clear trend toward warming and enhanced nutrient availability. In this context, the abundance and diversity of species were associated with increased continental influx into the sub-basin, resulting in rising nutrient levels and the number of calcareous nannofossils. This study enhances the understanding of the local and global effects such as tectonic and climates of the continuity of basins by deciphering calcareous nannofossil patterns and their correlation with sedimentation factors. Full article

The Mediterranean Sea is of great and manifold relevance for global oceanic circulation and climate: Mediterranean waters profoundly affect the salinity of the North Atlantic Ocean and hence the global ocean circulation. Ocean motions are forced fundamentally by the atmosphere. However, direct atmospheric forcing explains just a part of the observed Mediterranean circulation, for example, the former is not able to account for the observed north-south inclination of the sea level, one of the most prominent and persistent features of Mediterranean oceanography. This implies that a significant part of this circulation feature is caused by mechanisms that are all internal, “intrinsic” to the ocean. Yet, no effort has been made so far to disentangle intrinsic oceanic phenomena from atmospherically forced ones in the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we start filling this gap of knowledge. We demonstrate that a conspicuous part of the observed Mediterranean mean state and variability belongs to a skeleton captured for the first time by a multi-centennial ocean simulation without atmospheric forcing. This study paves the way to the identification and comprehension of further observed mean patterns and low-frequency fluctuations in the Mediterranean Sea as the result of intrinsic oceanic processes rather than by a direct effect of the atmospheric forcing and could be extended to other basins where geometry and hydrological structure significantly contribute to shaping the local dynamics. Full article

The Aiza research area covers over 650 km² of the northern Adriatic offshore, a common Adriatic foreland of the older Dinarides on the NE, and the younger Apennines on the SW. High-quality 3D reflection seismic data were used to investigate the area’s Mesozoic to Cenozoic tectono-stratigraphic evolution. Four main seismo-stratigraphical horizons were recognized: Base of Carbonate Platform (BCP), Top of Carbonate Platform (TCP), Messinian Erosional Surface (MES), and a Plio-Quaternary horizon (PlQh), as well as the dominant faults. The results depict the geological setting and tectonic evolution of the area. A long-lasting (Jurassic to Cretaceous) stable NW-SE striking platform margin evolved probably along the inherited Triassic normal fault. The marginal belt of the platform was affected during the Late Cretaceous to Palaeogene by extension and opening of the intra-platform basin, probably on the southern limb of the then developing Dinaric forebulge. The transverse fault system (Kvarner fault) was probably reactivated as a strike-slip zone during the late Miocene tectonic reorganization. The area was tilted to the SW during the Pliocene, in the distal foreland of the progressively northward propagating Northern Apennines. Sub-horizontal late Quaternary cover of Dinaric and Apenninic structures could imply active subsidence of the foreland in between nowadays sub-vertically exhuming neighboring orogenic belts. Full article

Ecological flow (E-flow) determination is an essential component of stream management and the preservation of aquatic ecosystems within a watershed. E-flow should be determined while considering the overall status of the watershed, including the hydrological cycle, hydraulic facility operation, and stream ecology. The purpose of this study is to determine E-flow by considering watershed status through coupled modeling with SWAT and PHABSIM. SWAT was calibrated to ensure reliability when coupling the two models, using observed data that included streamflow and dam inflows. The calibration result of SWAT showed that the averages of R², NSE, and RMSE were 0.62, 0.57, and 1.68 mm/day, respectively, showing satisfactory results. Flow duration analysis using the SWAT results was performed to apply to discharge boundary conditions for PHABSIM. The averages of Q₁₈₅ (mid-range flows) and Q₂₇₅ (dry conditions) were suitable to simulate fish habitat. The habitat suitability index derived through a fish survey was applied to PHABSIM to estimate E-flow. E-flow was estimated at 20.0 m³/s using the coupled model and compared with the notified instream flow by the Ministry of Environment. The results demonstrate a high level of applicability for the coupled modeling approach between the watershed and physical habitat simulation models. Our attempt at coupled modeling can be utilized to determine E-flow considering the watershed status. Full article

The Mangbang Formation in the Hanbazhai area is part of the uranium ore field in the Longchuanjiang Basin, China. Uraniferous sandstones from this formation are examined in this study. The type and mode of occurrence of uranium are investigated in detail using an experiment for the sequential extraction of uranium, as well as an electron probe, scanning electron microscopy, and energy spectrum analyses. The sequential extraction experiment indicates that the proportion of uranium minerals is significantly greater than that of the adsorbed uranium in the samples, with the latter being largely present in framboidal pyrites and clay minerals. The results show that these uranium minerals are mainly composed of coffinite and uranium phosphosilicates, which closely coexist with framboidal pyrites, carbon debris, feldspar minerals, and clay minerals. The discovery of coffinite and uranium phosphosilicates is discussed in context with their symbiotic relationship and geochemical environment. Uraniferous sandstones are considered to have undergone at least two stages of mineralization: the sedimentary–diagenetic stage and the later uranium enrichment by fluid. The geochemical environment of the sedimentary–diagenetic stage is generally a sulfide-reducing environment, and the later fluids are rich in U, Si, P, and Y. Full article

This paper introduces a Python application for visualizing an imbricate thrust system. The application uses the traditional geologic information to create an HTML geological map with real topography and a set of geological cross-sections with the essential structural and stratigraphic elements. On the basis of the high geological knowledge gained during the last three decades, the Palomeque sheets affecting the Cenozoic Malaguide succession in the Internal Betic Zone (SE Spain) were selected to show the application. In this area, a Malaguide Cretaceous to Lower Miocene succession is deformed as an imbricate thrust system, with two thrusts forming a duplex, affected later by a set of faults with a main strike-slip kinematic. The modeled elements match well with the design of the stratigraphic intervals and the structures reported in recent scientific publications. This proves the good performance of this Python application for visualizing the structural and stratigraphic architecture. This kind of application could be a crucial stage for future groundwater, mining, and civil engineering management. Full article

Human land use land cover changes (LULCCs) can cause impacts on watershed lands and on water resources. The regions with land use conflict suffer more intense erosion processes due to their high slope and drainage density. The study intends to evaluate scenarios with an absence of land use conflict and verify if it can contribute to reductions in surface runoff, avoiding the carriage of tailings to river channels. In the study, the SWAT model was used in the hydrological modeling of the Paraopeba River watershed affected by the rupture. The results show that the SWAT model was able to reproduce the flow data with good and very good performances. The quality indicators in the calibration step were NSE = 0.66, R² = 0.69, PBIAS = 5.2%, and RSR = 0.59, and in the validation, step were NSE = 0.74, R² = 0.77, PBIAS = 13.5%, and RSR = 0.51. The LULCC from 2000 to 2019 led to a 70% increase in lateral runoff (LATQ) and a 74% decrease in aquifer groundwater. The scenario of land use capability and no conflict can reduce lateral runoff by 37% and increase water infiltration by 265%, minimizing the point and diffuse contamination of the tailings in the Paraopeba river channel. Full article

In order to understand the hydrological impacts of the nature-based solutions in the Cantareira Water Supply System, this study evaluates six different land cover and land use change scenarios. The first and second consider the restoration of native vegetation in riparian areas, the third prioritizes restoration sites using biophysical characteristics (optimized restoration scenario derived from Resource Investment Optimization System—RIOS), the fourth considers best management practices and the fifth and sixth are hypothetical extreme scenarios converting all pasture to forest and vice versa. Two hydrological models were developed to represent the distributions of water and yields in the study watershed: HEC-HMS and SWAT. Simulation results indicate that when nature-based solutions are implemented, surface runoff is reduced and ambient storage increases during the rainy season (December–March); while the overall flow increases during the dry season (June–September). The combination of specific hydrologic components of RIOS-customized intervention scenario simulation outputs—namely surface flows and groundwater contribution to stream flows—indicate on average 33% increase in the overall water yield, or 206 hm³/year, across the study watershed when comparing against the baseline conditions. In the same modeling scenario, the water storage in the sub-watersheds adjacent to the reservoirs showed an increase of 58% (or 341 hm³/year). The results indicate that adopting NbS in the source watershed can mitigate the impacts of extreme drought conditions and contribute toward building long-term water security. Full article

Monthly hydrological models are useful tools for runoff simulation and prediction. This study proposes a three-parameter monthly hydrological model based on the proportionality hypothesis (TMPH) and applies to the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB) in China. Two major modules are involved in the TMPH: the actual evapotranspiration and runoff, in which the coupled water–energy balance equation and the proportionality hypothesis are used for calculation, respectively. It is worth mentioning that the proportionality hypothesis was extended to the partitioning of the available water into water loss and runoff at the monthly scale, which demonstrates that the ratio of runoff to its potential value is equal to the ratio of continuing water loss to its potential value. Results demonstrate that the TMPH model performs well when the NSE values are 0.79 and 0.83, and the KGE values are 0.86 and 0.78 for calibration period and validation period, respectively. The widely used two-parameter monthly water balance (TWBM) model and ABCD model are compared with the proposed model. Results show that TMPH performs better than TWBM model with NSE increased by 0.07 and 0.11, and KGE increased by 0.02 and 0.16, respectively, whereas the TMPH performs similarly as the ABCD model in the calibration period, and performs slightly better in the validation period, with NSE increased by 0.02, and KGE increased by 0.03. Sensitivity analysis show that the simulation result is most sensitive to parameter n, followed by SC and $\lambda$. In summary, the proposed model has strong applicability to the study area. Full article

In a previous paper, the authors implemented a machine learning k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm and Python libraries to create two 3D interactive models of the stratigraphic architecture of the Quaternary onshore Llobregat River Delta (NE Spain) for groundwater exploration purposes. The main limitation of this previous paper was its lack of routines for evaluating the confidence of the 3D models. Building from the previous paper, this paper refines the programming code and introduces an additional algorithm to evaluate the confidence of the KNN predictions. A variant of the Similarity Ratio method was used to quantify the KNN prediction confidence. This variant used weights that were inversely proportional to the distance between each grain-size class and the inferred point to work out a value that played the role of similarity. While the KNN algorithm and Python libraries demonstrated their efficacy for obtaining 3D models of the stratigraphic arrangement of sedimentary porous media, the KNN prediction confidence verified the certainty of the 3D models. In the Llobregat River Delta, the KNN prediction confidence at each prospecting depth was a function of the available data density at that depth. As expected, the KNN prediction confidence decreased according to the decreasing data density at lower depths. The obtained average-weighted confidence was in the 0.44−0.53 range for gravel bodies at prospecting depths in the 12.7−72.4 m b.s.l. range and was in the 0.42−0.55 range for coarse sand bodies at prospecting depths in the 4.6−83.9 m b.s.l. range. In a couple of cases, spurious average-weighted confidences of 0.29 in one gravel body and 0.30 in one coarse sand body were obtained. These figures were interpreted as the result of the quite different weights of neighbors from different grain-size classes at short distances. The KNN algorithm confidence has proven its suitability for identifying these anomalous results in the supposedly well-depurated grain-size database used in this study. The introduced KNN algorithm confidence quantifies the reliability of the 3D interactive models, which is a necessary stage to make decisions in economic and environmental geology. In the Llobregat River Delta, this quantification clearly improves groundwater exploration predictability. Full article

To promote oil and gas exploration of the Carboniferous formation in the Shibei sag, the northeastern margin of Junggar Basin, recently drilled rocks from Well ZB6 with typical seismics were characterized. Through systematic core observation, the identification marks of seismites were described, a vertical sequence of seismites was established, and its oil and gas geological significance was analyzed. The results show that the seismites have typical identification marks, such as soft-sediment deformation structures (including five typical marks: liquefied stone vein, liquefied crinkled deformation structure, ball–pillow structure, flame structure and load cast, water release structure and liquefied breccia), brittle fracture structures (including three typical marks: seismic fractures, synsedimentary microfractures and seismic fracture rock) and special rock types, such as seismic grain-supported conglomerates. The stratigraphic succession reconstructed in Well ZB6 was characterized, from base to top, by (1) a basal non-seismic interval; (2) a seismic interval made up of a grain-supported conglomerate level, brittle fracture level, soft-sediment deformation level; and (3) a non-seismic interval. The discovery of seismites has oil and gas geological significance for improving reservoir performance and forming favorable source–reservoir–cap assemblages. The research describes the new reservoir genetic type and exploration direction of the Carboniferous formation in the Shibei sag (China), which has important guiding significance for the next step of oil and gas exploration. Full article

In the course of attempting to date the host rocks of Viburnum metal deposits from the US state of Missouri, the purpose was here a detailed examination and contribution of the constitutive minerals of glauconite-rich pellets to the isotopic dating of these deposits. The glauconite pellets of Cambrian sediments hosting metal concentrates were dated here by the K-Ar method to complement earlier published Rb-Sr data. The study confirmed that the preparation and purification step of such glauconite pellets is especially critical with the need for a specific cleaning step to not only remove the detrital counterparts but also all Sr-rich components occurring as accessory minerals such as the carbonates, sulfates and oxides that apparently “contaminated” the Rb-Sr results. The K-Ar data and the previously released Rb-Sr results obtained on strictly the same glauconite-rich separates outline clear age discrepancies that can be summarized by higher, “older” K-Ar age data at about 440, 415 and 390 Ma, and lower, “younger” Rb-Sr data at about 400 and 370 Ma. The glauconite separates of most samples being apparently not contaminated by various detrital K-rich crystals, the two dating methods should have been affected similarly. The analytical dispersion seems, then, to result from a diagenetic event that affected the Rb-Sr system more than the K-Ar system by a plausible addition/subtraction of one or several Sr-rich and Rb-poor and, therefore, K-poor minerals. In turn, the studied pellets were apparently impregnated after deposition by flowing metal-rich fluids in a low-temperature environment not affected by a significant thermal impact. The Bonneterre Formation acted apparently as a regional drain for metal-rich fluids that percolated throughout the region at a probable burial depth of less than 2000 m. Full article