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A special issue of Geosciences (ISSN 2076-3263). This special issue belongs to the section "Natural Hazards".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2018) | Viewed by 68120

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Dr. Tommaso Caloiero

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National Research Council (CNR), Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean (ISAFOM), Via Cavour 4/6, 87936 Rende, CS, Italy
Interests: hydrology; climatology; climate change; natural hazards; land use chance; forest ecology
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Due to the considerable impacts of hydrological hazard on water resources, on natural environments and human activities, as well as on human health and safety, climate variability and climate change have become key issues for the research community. In fact, a warmer climate, with its heightened climate variability, will increase the risk of hydrological extremes phenomena, such as droughts and floods. The overall goal of this Special Issue of Geosciences is to consider innovative approaches to the analysis, prediction, prevention, and mitigation of hydrological extremes. With this aim, interdisciplinary original research articles highlighting new ideas, approaches and innovations in the analysis of various types of droughts (e.g., meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought) and various types of flood (e.g., fluvial, coastal and pluvial) are welcomed.

Potential topics of this Special Issue of Geosciences include, but are not limited to:

Regional flood and drought analysis
Case studies and comparative studies in different parts of the world
Analyses of regional/global patterns and trends
Effects of land-use or land-cover change on hydrological extremes
Prediction and prevention of hydrological extremes
Use of satellite and climate data for drought analysis
Innovative modelling methods for flood hazards
Strategies for reducing the vulnerability to hydrological extremes
Climate change and hydrogeologicl risk

Dr. Tommaso Caloiero
Guest Editor

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Related Special Issues

Hydrological and Hydrogeological Risks in Geosciences (3 articles)
Interdisciplinary Approaches to Hydrologic Dynamics, Analytics and Predictability in Geosciences
Impacts of Compound Hydrological Hazards or Extremes in Geosciences (8 articles)
Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Geosciences (9 articles)
Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Water (7 articles)

Published Papers (14 papers)

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Editorial

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6 pages, 1021 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention

by Tommaso Caloiero

Geosciences 2018, 8(11), 389; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8110389 - 26 Oct 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3124

Abstract

As a result of the considerable impacts of hydrological hazard on water resources, on natural environments and human activities, as well as on human health and safety, climate variability and climate change have become key issues for the research community. In fact, a warmer climate, with its heightened climate variability, will increase the risk of hydrological extreme phenomena, such as droughts and floods. The Special Issue “Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention” presents a collection of scientific contributions that provides a sample of the state-of-the-art and forefront research in this field. In particular, innovative modelling methods for flood hazards, regional flood and drought analysis, and the use of satellite and climate data for drought analysis were the main topics and practice targets that the papers published in this Special Issue aimed to address. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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Research

Jump to: Editorial, Other

18 pages, 2228 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Damage Caused by Hydrometeorological Disasters in Texas, 1960–2016

by Srikanto H. Paul and Hatim O. Sharif

Geosciences 2018, 8(10), 384; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100384 - 20 Oct 2018

Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4793

Abstract

Property damages caused by hydrometeorological disasters in Texas during the period 1960–2016 totaled $54.2 billion with hurricanes, tropical storms, and hail accounting for 56%, followed by flooding and severe thunderstorms responsible for 24% of the total damages. The current study provides normalized trends to support the assertion that the increase in property damage is a combined contribution of stronger disasters as predicted by climate change models and increases in urban development in risk prone regions such as the Texas Gulf Coast. A comparison of the temporal distribution of damages normalized by population and GDP resulted in a less statistically significant increasing trend per capita. Seasonal distribution highlights spring as the costliest season (March, April and May) while the hurricane season (June through November) is well aligned with the months of highest property damage. Normalization of property damage by GDP during 2001–2016 showed Dallas as the only metropolitan statistical area (MSA) with a significant increasing trend of the 25 MSAs in Texas. Spatial analysis of property damage per capita highlighted the regions that are at greater risk during and after a major disaster given their limited economic resources compared to more urbanized regions. Variation in the causes of damage (wind or water) and types of damage that a “Hurricane” can produce was investigated using Hazus model simulation. A comparison of published damage estimates at time of occurrence with simulation outputs for Hurricanes Carla, 1961; Alicia, 1983; and Ike, 2008 based on 2010 building exposure highlighted the impact of economic growth, susceptibility of wood building types, and the predominant cause of damage. Carla and Ike simulation models captured less than 50% of their respective estimates reported by other sources suggesting a broad geographical zone of damage with flood damage making a significant contribution. Conversely, the model damage estimates for Alicia are 50% higher than total damage estimates that were reported at the time of occurrence suggesting a substantial increase in building exposure susceptible to wind damage in the modeled region from 1983 – 2010. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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12 pages, 2792 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Attempt to Use Non-Linear Regression Modelling Technique in Long-Term Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting for Australian Capital Territory

by Iqbal Hossain, Rijwana Esha and Monzur Alam Imteaz

Geosciences 2018, 8(8), 282; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080282 - 28 Jul 2018

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 3930

Abstract

The objective of this research is the assessment of the efficiency of a non-linear regression technique in predicting long-term seasonal rainfall. The non-linear models were developed using the lagged (past) values of the climate drivers, which have a significant correlation with rainfall. More specifically, the capabilities of SEIO (South-eastern Indian Ocean) and ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) were assessed in reproducing the rainfall characteristics using the non-linear regression approach. The non-linear models developed were tested using the individual data sets, which were not used during the calibration of the models. The models were assessed using the commonly used statistical parameters, such as Pearson correlations (R), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and index of agreement (d). Three rainfall stations located in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) were selected as a case study. The analysis suggests that the predictors which has the highest correlation with the predictands do not necessarily produce the least errors in rainfall forecasting. The non-linear regression was able to predict seasonal rainfall with correlation coefficients varying from 0.71 to 0.91. The outcomes of the analysis will help the watershed management authorities to adopt efficient modelling technique by predicting long-term seasonal rainfall. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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15 pages, 3998 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modelling the Present and Future Water Level and Discharge of the Tidal Betna River

by M. M. Majedul Islam, Nynke Hofstra and Ekaterina Sokolova

Geosciences 2018, 8(8), 271; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080271 - 24 Jul 2018

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 4188

Abstract

Climate change, comprising of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures and sea level rises, increases the likelihood of future flooding in the Betna River basin, Bangladesh. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed to simulate the present and future water level and discharge for different scenarios using bias-corrected, downscaled data from two general circulation models. The modelling results indicated that, compared to the baseline year (2014–2015), the water level is expected to increase by 11–16% by the 2040s and 14–23% by the 2090s, and the monsoon daily maximum discharge is expected to increase by up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. Sea level rise is mostly responsible for the increase in water level. The duration of water level exceedance of the established danger threshold and extreme discharge events can increase by up to half a month by the 2040s and above one month by the 2090s. The combined influence of the increased water level and discharge has the potential to cause major floods in the Betna River basin. The results of our study increase the knowledge base on climate change influence on water level and discharge at a local scale. This is valuable for water managers in flood-risk mitigation and water management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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18 pages, 6023 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of the Performance of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products for Flood Events across Diverse Spatial Scales Using GSSHA Modeling System

by Chad Furl, Dawit Ghebreyesus and Hatim O. Sharif

Geosciences 2018, 8(6), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8060191 - 28 May 2018

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 3658

Abstract

Accurate precipitation measurements for high magnitude rainfall events are of great importance in hydrometeorology and climatology research. The focus of the study is to assess the performance of satellite-based precipitation products against a gauge adjusted Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Stage IV product during high magnitude rainfall events. The assessment was categorized across three spatial scales using watershed ranging from ~200–10,000 km². The propagation of the errors from rainfall estimates to runoff estimates was analyzed by forcing a hydrologic-model with the satellite-based precipitation products for nine storm events from 2004 to 2015. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing Technique (CMORPH) products showed high correlation to the NEXRAD estimates in all spatial domains, and had an average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.81. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Early product was inconsistent with a very high variance of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient in all spatial domains (from −0.46 to 0.38), however, the variance decreased as the watershed size increased. Surprisingly, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) also showed a very high variance in all the performance statics. In contrast, the un-corrected product of the TRMM showed a relatively better performance. The errors of the precipitation estimates were amplified in the simulated hydrographs. Even though the products provide evenly distributed near-global spatiotemporal estimates, they significantly underestimate strong storm events in all spatial scales. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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23 pages, 4367 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Fatalities Caused by Hydrometeorological Disasters in Texas

by Srikanto H. Paul, Hatim O. Sharif and Abigail M. Crawford

Geosciences 2018, 8(5), 186; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8050186 - 18 May 2018

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 9785

Abstract

Texas ranks first in the U.S in number of fatalities due to natural disasters. Based on data culled from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 1959 to 2016, the number of hydrometeorological fatalities in Texas have increased over the 58-year study period, but the per capita fatalities have significantly decreased. Spatial review found that non-coastal flooding is the predominant hydrometeorological disaster in a majority of the Texas counties located in “Flash Flood Alley” and accounts for 43% of all hydrometeorological fatalities in the state. Flooding fatalities occur most frequently on “Transportation Routes” followed by heat fatalities in “Permanent Residences”. Seasonal and monthly stratification identifies Spring and Summer as the deadliest seasons, with the month of May registering the highest number of total fatalities dominated by flooding and tornado fatalities. Demographic trends of hydrometeorological disaster fatalities indicated that approximately twice as many male fatalities occurred from 1959-2016 than female fatalities, but with decreasing gender disparity over time. Adults are the highest fatality risk group overall, children are most at risk to die in flooding, and the elderly at greatest risk of heat-related death. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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14 pages, 3144 KiB

Open AccessArticle

From Deterministic to Probabilistic Forecasts: The ‘Shift-Target’ Approach in the Milan Urban Area (Northern Italy)

by Gabriele Lombardi, Alessandro Ceppi, Giovanni Ravazzani, Silvio Davolio and Marco Mancini

Geosciences 2018, 8(5), 181; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8050181 - 15 May 2018

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 4038

Abstract

The number of natural catastrophes that affect people worldwide is increasing; among these, the hydro-meteorological events represent the worst scenario due to the thousands of deaths and huge damages to private and state ownership they can cause. To prevent this, besides various structural measures, many non-structural solutions, such as the implementation of flood warning systems, have been proposed in recent years. In this study, we suggest a low computational cost method to produce a probabilistic flood prediction system using a single forecast precipitation scenario perturbed via a spatial shift. In fact, it is well-known that accurate forecasts of heavy precipitation, especially associated with deep moist convection, are challenging due to uncertainties arising from the numerical weather prediction (NWP), and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the initial atmospheric state. Inaccuracies in precipitation forecasts are partially due to spatial misplacing. To produce hydro-meteorological simulations and forecasts, we use a flood forecasting system which comprises the physically-based rainfall-runoff hydrological model FEST-WB developed by the Politecnico di Milano, and the MOLOCH meteorological model provided by the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC). The areas of study are the hydrological basins of the rivers Seveso, Olona, and Lambro located in the northern part of Milan city (northern Italy) where this system works every day in real-time. In this paper, we show the performance of reforecasts carried out between the years 2012 and 2015: in particular, we explore the ‘Shift-Target’ (ST) approach in order to obtain 40 ensemble members, which we assume equally likely, derived from the available deterministic precipitation forecast. Performances are shown through statistical indexes based on exceeding the threshold for different gauge stations over the three hydrological basins. Results highlight how the Shift-Target approach complements the deterministic MOLOCH-based flood forecast for warning purposes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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10 pages, 1154 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Correlation Analysis of Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation in a Region of Southern Italy

by Ennio Ferrari, Roberto Coscarelli and Beniamino Sirangelo

Geosciences 2018, 8(5), 160; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8050160 - 02 May 2018

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3780

Abstract

The investigation of the statistical links between changes in temperature and rainfall, though not widely achieved in the past, is an interesting issue because their physical interdependence is difficult to point out. Aiming at detecting possible trends with a pooled approach, a correlative analysis of temperature and rainfall has been carried out by comparing changes in their standardized anomalies from two different 30-year time periods. The procedure has been applied to the time series of seasonal mean temperature and cumulative rainfall observed in four sites of the Calabria region (Southern Italy), with reference to the series which verify the normality hypothesis. Specifically, the displacements of the ellipses, representing the probability density functions of the bivariate normal distribution assumed for the climatic variables, have been quantified and tested for each season, passing from the first subperiod to the following one. The main results concern a decreasing trend of both the temperature and the rainfall anomalies, predominantly in the winter and autumn seasons. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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14 pages, 5820 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Comparison of SCS and Green-Ampt Distributed Models for Flood Modelling in a Small Cultivated Catchment in Senegal

by Christophe Bouvier, Lamia Bouchenaki and Yves Tramblay

Geosciences 2018, 8(4), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040122 - 04 Apr 2018

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4268

Abstract

The vulnerability to floods in Africa has increased over the last decades, together with a modification of land cover as urbanized areas are increasing, agricultural practices are changing, and deforestation is increasing. Rainfall-runoff models that properly represent land use change and hydrologic response should be useful for the development of water management and mitigation plans. Although some studies have applied rainfall-runoff models in West Africa for flood modelling, there is still a need to develop such models, while many data are available and have not still been used for modelling improvement. The Ndiba catchment (16.2 km²), which is located in an agricultural area in south Senegal, is such catchment, where a lot of hydro-climatic data has been collected between 1983 and 1992. Twenty-eight flood events have been extracted and modelled by two event-based rainfall-runoff models that are based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) or the Green-Ampt (GA) models for runoff, both coupled with the distributed Lag and Route (LR) for routing. Both models were able to reproduce the flood events after calibration, but they had to account for that the infiltration processes are highly dependent on the tillage of the soils and the growing of the crops during the rainy season, which made the initialization of the event-based models difficult. The most influent parameters for both models (the maximal water storage capacity for SCS, the hydraulic conductivity at saturation for Green-Ampt) were mostly related to the development stage of the vegetation, described by a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly. The SCS model performed finally better than the Green-Ampt model, because Green-Ampt was very sensitive to the variability of the hydraulic conductivity at saturation. The variability of the parameters of the models highlights the complexity of this kind of cultivated catchment, with highly non stationary conditions. The models could be improved by a better knowledge of the tillage practices, and a better integration of these practices in the parameters predictors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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14 pages, 3120 KiB

Open AccessArticle

SPI Trend Analysis of New Zealand Applying the ITA Technique

by Tommaso Caloiero

Geosciences 2018, 8(3), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8030101 - 15 Mar 2018

Cited by 46 | Viewed by 5547

Abstract

A natural temporary imbalance of water availability, consisting of persistent lower-than-average or higher-than-average precipitation, can cause extreme dry and wet conditions that adversely impact agricultural yields, water resources, infrastructure, and human systems. In this study, dry and wet periods in New Zealand were expressed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). First, both the short term (3 and 6 months) and the long term (12 and 24 months) SPI were estimated, and then, possible trends in the SPI values were detected by means of a new graphical technique, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), which allows the trend identification of the low, medium, and high values of a series. Results show that, in every area currently subject to drought, an increase in this phenomenon can be expected. Specifically, the results of this paper highlight that agricultural regions on the eastern side of the South Island, as well as the north-eastern regions of the North Island, are the most consistently vulnerable areas. In fact, in these regions, the trend analysis mainly showed a general reduction in all the values of the SPI: that is, a tendency toward heavier droughts and weaker wet periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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11 pages, 3284 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Simulating the Influence of Buildings on Flood Inundation in Urban Areas

by Riccardo Beretta, Giovanni Ravazzani, Carlo Maiorano and Marco Mancini

Geosciences 2018, 8(2), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8020077 - 24 Feb 2018

Cited by 29 | Viewed by 4625

Abstract

Two-dimensional hydraulic modeling is fundamental to simulate flood events in urban area. Key factors to reach optimal results are detailed information about domain geometry and utility of hydrodynamic models to integrate the full or simplified Saint Venant equations in complex geometry. However, in some cases, detailed topographic datasets that represent the domain geometry are not available, so approximations—such as diffusive wave equation—is introduced whilst representing urban area with an adjusted roughness coefficient. In the present paper, different methods to represent buildings and approximation of the Saint Venant equations are tested by performing experiments on a scale physical model of urban district in laboratory. Simplified methods are tested for simulation of a real flood event which occurred in 2013 in the city of Olbia, Italy. Results show that accuracy of simulating flow depth with a detailed geometry is comparable to the one achieved with an adjusted roughness coefficient. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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15 pages, 1643 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of the Rainfall Duration and Temporal Rainfall Distribution Defined Using the Huff Curves on the Hydraulic Flood Modelling Results

by Nejc Bezak, Mojca Šraj, Simon Rusjan and Matjaž Mikoš

Geosciences 2018, 8(2), 69; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8020069 - 11 Feb 2018

Cited by 32 | Viewed by 5031

Abstract

In the case of ungauged catchments, different procedures can be used to derive the design hydrograph and design peak discharge, which are crucial input data for the design of different hydrotechnical engineering structures, or the production of flood hazard maps. One of the possible approaches involves using a hydrological model where one can calculate the design hydrograph through the design of a rainfall event. This study investigates the impact of the design rainfall on the combined one-dimensional/two-dimensional (1D/2D) hydraulic modelling results. The Glinščica Stream catchment located in Slovenia (central Europe) is used as a case study. Ten different design rainfall events were compared for 10 and 100-year return periods, where we used Huff curves for the design rainfall event definition. The results indicate that the selection of the design rainfall event should be regarded as an important step, since the hydraulic modelling results for different scenarios differ significantly. In the presented experimental case study, the maximum flooded area extent was twice as large as the minimum one, and the maximum water velocity over flooded areas was more than 10 times larger than the minimum one. This can lead to the production of very different flood hazard maps, and consequently planning very different flood protection schemes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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Other

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16 pages, 4548 KiB

Open AccessCase Report

A Novel Method for Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Strategies: Explanation of ICPR FloRiAn GIS-Tool and Its First Application to the Rhine River Basin

by Adrian Schmid-Breton, Gesa Kutschera, Ton Botterhuis and The ICPR Expert Group ‘Flood Risk Analysis’ (EG HIRI)

Geosciences 2018, 8(10), 371; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8100371 - 06 Oct 2018

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4130

Abstract

To determine the effects of measures on flood risk, the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR), supported by the engineering consultant HKV has developed a method and a GIS-tool named “ICPR FloRiAn (Flood Risk Analysis)”, which enables the broad-scale assessment of the effectiveness of flood risk management measures on the Rhine, but could be also applied to other rivers. The tool uses flood hazard maps and associated recurrence periods for an overall damage and risk assessment for four receptors: human health, environment, culture heritage, and economic activity. For each receptor, a method is designed to calculate the impact of flooding and the effect of measures. The tool consists of three interacting modules: damage assessment, risk assessment, and measures. Calculations using this tool show that the flood risk reduction target defined in the Action Plan on Floods of the ICPR in 1998 could be achieved with the measures already taken and those planned until 2030. Upon request, the ICPR will provide this tool and the method to other river basin organizations, national authorities, or scientific institutions. This article presents the method and GIS-tool developed by the ICPR as well as first calculation results. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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19 pages, 2954 KiB

Open AccessTechnical Note

Examples of Application of ^GASAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy

by Oreste Terranova, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Pasquale Iaquinta, Valeria Lupiano, Valeria Rago and Giulio Iovine

Geosciences 2018, 8(2), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8020078 - 24 Feb 2018

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4456

Abstract

^GASAKe is an empirical-hydrological model aimed at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides. Activations can be predicted of either single landslides or sets of slope movements of the same type in a homogeneous environment. The model requires a rainfall series and a set of dates of landslide activation as input data. Calibration is performed through genetic algorithms, and allows for determining a family of optimal kernels to weight antecedent rainfall properly. As output, the mobility function highlights critical conditions of slope stability. Based on suitable calibration and validation samples of activation dates, the model represents a useful tool to be integrated in early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation purposes. In the present paper, examples of application to three rock slides in Calabria and to cases of soil slips in Campania are discussed. Calibration and validation are discussed, based on independent datasets. Obtained results are either excellent for two of the Calabrian rock slides or just promising for the remaining case studies. The best performances of the model take advantage of an accurate knowledge of the activation history of the landslides, and a proper hydrological characterization of the sites. For such cases, ^GASAKe could be usefully employed within early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation and Civil Protection purposes. Finally, a new release of the model is presently under test: its innovative features are briefly presented. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention)

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