Climate

14 pages, 944 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Ecoenergetic Comparison of HVAC Systems in Data Centers

by Alexandre F. Santos, Pedro D. Gaspar and Heraldo J. L. de Souza

Climate 2021, 9(3), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030042 - 4 Mar 2021

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3471

The topic of sustainability is of high importance today. Global efforts such as the Montreal Protocol (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016) are examples of joint work by countries to reduce environmental impacts and improve the level of the ozone layer, the choice [...] Read more.

The topic of sustainability is of high importance today. Global efforts such as the Montreal Protocol (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016) are examples of joint work by countries to reduce environmental impacts and improve the level of the ozone layer, the choice of refrigerants and air conditioning systems, which is essential for this purpose. But what indicators are to be used to measure something so necessary? In this article, the types of air conditioning and GWP (Global Warming Potential) levels of equipment in the project phase were discussed, the issue of TEWI (Total Equivalent Warming Impact) that measures the direct and indirect environmental impacts of refrigeration equipment and air conditioning and a new methodology for the indicator was developed, the TEWI DC (DC is the direct application for Data Center), and using the formulas of this new adapted indicator it was demonstrated that the TEWI DC for Chicago (USA) was 2,784,102,640 kg CO₂/10 years and Curitiba (Brazil) is 1,252,409,640 kg CO₂/10 years. This difference in value corresponds to 222.30% higher annual emissions in Chicago than in Curitiba, showing that it is much more advantageous to install a Data Center in Curitiba than in Chicago in terms of environmental impact. The TEWI indicator provides a more holistic view, helping to combine energy and emissions into the same indicator. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Novel Advances in Refrigeration Systems and Packaging Solutions: Impact in Climate Change and Food Products)

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16 pages, 3185 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

A Comparative Analysis of Different Future Weather Data for Building Energy Performance Simulation

by Mamak P.Tootkaboni, Ilaria Ballarini, Michele Zinzi and Vincenzo Corrado

Climate 2021, 9(2), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020037 - 23 Feb 2021

Cited by 41 | Viewed by 4705

Abstract

The building energy performance pattern is predicted to be shifted in the future due to climate change. To analyze this phenomenon, there is an urgent need for reliable and robust future weather datasets. Several ways for estimating future climate projection and creating weather [...] Read more.

The building energy performance pattern is predicted to be shifted in the future due to climate change. To analyze this phenomenon, there is an urgent need for reliable and robust future weather datasets. Several ways for estimating future climate projection and creating weather files exist. This paper attempts to comparatively analyze three tools for generating future weather datasets based on statistical downscaling (WeatherShift, Meteonorm, and CCWorldWeatherGen) with one based on dynamical downscaling (a future-typical meteorological year, created using a high-quality reginal climate model). Four weather datasets for the city of Rome are generated and applied to the energy simulation of a mono family house and an apartment block as representative building types of Italian residential building stock. The results show that morphed weather files have a relatively similar operation in predicting the future comfort and energy performance of the buildings. In addition, discrepancy between them and the dynamical downscaled weather file is revealed. The analysis shows that this comes not only from using different approaches for creating future weather datasets but also by the building type. Therefore, for finding climate resilient solutions for buildings, care should be taken in using different methods for developing future weather datasets, and regional and localized analysis becomes vital. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Built Environment in a Changing Climate: Interactions, Challenges and Perspectives)

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14 pages, 564 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Improving the Indoor Air Quality of Residential Buildings during Bushfire Smoke Events

by Priyadarsini Rajagopalan and Nigel Goodman

Climate 2021, 9(2), 32; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020032 - 15 Feb 2021

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 5581

Abstract

Exposure to bushfire smoke is associated with acute and chronic health effects such as respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Residential buildings are important places of refuge from bushfire smoke, however the air quality within these locations can become heavily polluted by smoke infiltration. Consequently, [...] Read more.

Exposure to bushfire smoke is associated with acute and chronic health effects such as respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Residential buildings are important places of refuge from bushfire smoke, however the air quality within these locations can become heavily polluted by smoke infiltration. Consequently, some residential buildings may offer limited protection from exposure to poor air quality, especially during extended smoke events. This paper evaluates the impact of bushfire smoke on indoor air quality within residential buildings and proposes strategies and guidance to reduce indoor levels of particulates and other pollutants. The paper explores the different monitoring techniques used to measure air pollutants and assesses the influence of the building envelope, filtration technologies, and portable air cleaners used to improve indoor air quality. The evaluation found that bushfire smoke can substantially increase the levels of pollutants within residential buildings. Notably, some studies reported indoor levels of PM_2.5 of approximately 500µg/m³ during bushfire smoke events. Many Australian homes are very leaky (i.e., >15 ACH) compared to those in countries such as the USA. Strategies such as improving the building envelope will help reduce smoke infiltration, however even in airtight homes pollutant levels will eventually increase over time. Therefore, the appropriate design, selection, and operation of household ventilation systems that include particle filtration will be critical to reduce indoor exposures during prolonged smoke events. Future studies of bushfire smoke intrusion in residences could also focus on filtration technologies that can remove gaseous pollutants. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Built Environment in a Changing Climate: Interactions, Challenges and Perspectives)

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11 pages, 3286 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Impact of the Strong Downwelling (Upwelling) on Small Pelagic Fish Production during the 2016 (2019) Negative (Positive) Indian Ocean Dipole Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean off Java

by Jonson Lumban-Gaol, Eko Siswanto, Kedarnath Mahapatra, Nyoman Metta Nyanakumara Natih, I Wayan Nurjaya, Mochamad Tri Hartanto, Erwin Maulana, Luky Adrianto, Herlambang Aulia Rachman, Takahiro Osawa, Berri Miraz Kholipah Rahman and Arik Permana

Climate 2021, 9(2), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020029 - 2 Feb 2021

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 4535

Abstract

Although researchers have investigated the impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases on human lives, only a few have examined such impacts on fisheries. In this study, we analyzed the influence of negative (positive) IOD phases on chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations as an [...] Read more.

Although researchers have investigated the impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases on human lives, only a few have examined such impacts on fisheries. In this study, we analyzed the influence of negative (positive) IOD phases on chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations as an indicator of phytoplankton biomass and small pelagic fish production in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java. We also conducted field surveys in the EIO off Palabuhanratu Bay at the peak (October) and the end (December) of the 2019 positive IOD phase. Our findings show that the Chl-a concentration had a strong and robust association with the 2016 (2019) negative (positive) IOD phases. The negative (positive) anomalous Chl-a concentration in the EIO off Java associated with the negative (positive) IOD phase induced strong downwelling (upwelling), leading to the preponderant decrease (increase) in small pelagic fish production in the EIO off Java. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales)

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11 pages, 233 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

A Survey Instrument to Measure Skeptics’ (Dis)Trust in Climate Science

by Dilshani Sarathchandra and Kristin Haltinner

Climate 2021, 9(2), 18; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9020018 - 20 Jan 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4719

Abstract

Existing survey instruments of trust in science and scientists that focus on the general public are potentially insufficient to assess climate skeptics’ perspectives towards climate science. They may miss important aspects of climate science about which skeptics raise concerns, and may not accurately [...] Read more.

Existing survey instruments of trust in science and scientists that focus on the general public are potentially insufficient to assess climate skeptics’ perspectives towards climate science. They may miss important aspects of climate science about which skeptics raise concerns, and may not accurately measure climate skeptics’ distrust in climatology. We introduce a new survey instrument developed using data gathered from interviewing 33 self-identified climate change skeptics in Idaho. The survey items capture skeptics’ beliefs regarding climate scientists’ trustworthiness and credibility, their deference to scientific authority, and their perceptions of alienation from the climate science community. We validate our survey instrument using data from an online survey administered to 1000 residents in the U.S. Pacific Northwest who are skeptical of climate change. By employing standard survey design principles, we demonstrate how our new (dis)trust in climate science instrument performs in tandem with well-known predictors of science attitudes and pro-environmentalism. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Human-Induced Climate Change: Truths and Controversies)

17 pages, 2727 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

The Effect of Statistical Downscaling on the Weighting of Multi-Model Ensembles of Precipitation

by Adrienne M. Wootten, Elias C. Massoud, Agniv Sengupta, Duane E. Waliser and Huikyo Lee

Climate 2020, 8(12), 138; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8120138 - 25 Nov 2020

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 3849

Abstract

Recently, assessments of global climate model (GCM) ensembles have transitioned from using unweighted means to weighted means designed to account for skill and interdependence among models. Although ensemble-weighting schemes are typically derived using a GCM ensemble, statistically downscaled projections are used in climate [...] Read more.

Recently, assessments of global climate model (GCM) ensembles have transitioned from using unweighted means to weighted means designed to account for skill and interdependence among models. Although ensemble-weighting schemes are typically derived using a GCM ensemble, statistically downscaled projections are used in climate change assessments. This study applies four ensemble-weighting schemes for model averaging to precipitation projections in the south-central United States. The weighting schemes are applied to (1) a 26-member GCM ensemble and (2) those 26 members downscaled using Localized Canonical Analogs (LOCA). This study is distinct from prior research because it compares the interactions of ensemble-weighting schemes with GCMs and statistical downscaling to produce summarized climate projection products. The analysis indicates that statistical downscaling improves the ensemble accuracy (LOCA average root mean square error is 100 mm less than the CMIP5 average root mean square error) and reduces the uncertainty of the projected ensemble-mean change. Furthermore, averaging the LOCA ensemble using Bayesian Model Averaging reduces the uncertainty beyond any other combination of weighting schemes and ensemble (standard deviation of the mean projected change in the domain is reduced by 40–50 mm). The results also indicate that it is inappropriate to assume that a weighting scheme derived from a GCM ensemble matches the same weights derived using a downscaled ensemble. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Dynamics and Modelling)

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20 pages, 3709 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Assessing Property Level Economic Impacts of Climate in the US, New Insights and Evidence from a Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment Tool

by Saman Armal, Jeremy R. Porter, Brett Lingle, Ziyan Chu, Michael L. Marston and Oliver E. J. Wing

Climate 2020, 8(10), 116; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8100116 - 12 Oct 2020

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 10870

Abstract

Hurricanes and flood-related events cause more direct economic damage than any other type of natural disaster. In the United States, that damage totals more than USD 1 trillion in damages since 1980. On average, direct flood losses have risen from USD 4 billion [...] Read more.

Hurricanes and flood-related events cause more direct economic damage than any other type of natural disaster. In the United States, that damage totals more than USD 1 trillion in damages since 1980. On average, direct flood losses have risen from USD 4 billion annually in the 1980s to roughly USD 17 billion annually from 2010 to 2018. Despite flooding’s tremendous economic impact on US properties and communities, current estimates of expected damages are lacking due to the fact that flood risk in many parts of the US is unidentified, underestimated, or available models associated with high quality assessment tools are proprietary. This study introduces an economic-focused Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approach that builds upon an our existing understanding of prior assessment methods by taking advantage of a newly available, climate adjusted, parcel-level flood risk assessment model (First Street Foundation, 2020a and 2020b) in order to quantify property level economic impacts today, and into the climate adjusted future, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and NASA’s Global Climate Model ensemble (CMIP5). This approach represents a first of its kind—a publicly available high precision flood risk assessment tool at the property level developed completely with open data sources and open methods. The economic impact assessment presented here has been carried out using residential buildings in New Jersey as a testbed; however, the environmental assessment tool on which it is based is a national scale property level flood assessment model at a 3 m resolution. As evidence of the reliability of the EIA tool, the 2020 estimated economic impact (USD 5481 annual expectation) was compared to actual average per claim-year NFIP payouts from flooding and found an average of USD 5540 over the life of the program (difference of less than USD 100). Additionally, the tool finds a 41.4% increase in average economic flood damage through the year 2050 when environmental change is included in the model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Economics)

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20 pages, 3623 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Expected Impacts of Mixing European Beech with Silver Fir on Regional Air Quality and Radiation Balance

by Boris Bonn, Jürgen Kreuzwieser, Ruth-Kristina Magh, Heinz Rennenberg, Dirk Schindler, Dominik Sperlich, Raphael Trautmann, Rasoul Yousefpour and Rüdiger Grote

Climate 2020, 8(10), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8100105 - 26 Sep 2020

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3653

Abstract

The anticipated climate change during the next decades is posing crucial challenges to ecosystems. In order to decrease the vulnerability of forests, introducing tree species’ mixtures are a viable strategy, with deep-rooting native Silver fir (Abies alba) being a primary candidate [...] Read more.

The anticipated climate change during the next decades is posing crucial challenges to ecosystems. In order to decrease the vulnerability of forests, introducing tree species’ mixtures are a viable strategy, with deep-rooting native Silver fir (Abies alba) being a primary candidate for admixture into current pure stands of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) especially in mountainous areas. Such a change in forest structure also has effects on the regional scale, which, however, have been seldomly quantified. Therefore, we measured and modeled radiative balance and air chemistry impacts of admixing Silver fir to European beech stands, including changes in biogenic volatile organic compound emissions. An increased fraction of Silver fir caused a smaller albedo and a (simulated) larger evapotranspiration, leading to a dryer and warmer forest. While isoprene emission was negligible for both species, sesquiterpene and monoterpene emissions were larger for fir than for beech. From these differences, we derived that ozone concentration as well as secondary organic aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei would increase regionally. Overall, we demonstrated that even a relatively mild scenario of tree species change will alter the energy balance and air quality in a way that could potentially influence the climate on a landscape scale. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem Services and Forest Management)

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21 pages, 3239 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Modeling and Analysis of Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation in Tehran

by Behnam Ghasemzadeh and Ayyoob Sharifi

Climate 2020, 8(10), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8100104 - 24 Sep 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4115

Abstract

Since the impacts of climate change will last for many years, adaptation to this phenomenon should be prioritized in urban management plans. Although Tehran, the capital of Iran, has been subject to a variety of climate change impacts in recent years, appropriate adaptation [...] Read more.

Since the impacts of climate change will last for many years, adaptation to this phenomenon should be prioritized in urban management plans. Although Tehran, the capital of Iran, has been subject to a variety of climate change impacts in recent years, appropriate adaptation measures to address them are yet to be taken. This study primarily aims to categorize the barriers to climate change adaptation in Tehran and analyze the way they interact with each other. The study was done in three steps: first, the focus group discussion (FGD) method was used to identify the barriers; next, the survey and the structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to validate the barriers, identify their importance, and examine their possible inter-relationships; and finally, the interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was applied to categorize and visualize the relationships between the barriers. Results show that barriers related to the ‘structure and culture of research’, ‘laws and regulations’, and ‘planning’ belong to the cluster of independent barriers and are of greater significance. The ‘social’ barrier and barriers related to ‘resources and resource management’ are identified as dependent barriers and are of lesser importance. Barriers related to ‘governance’, ‘awareness’, ‘education and knowledge’, ‘communication and interaction’, and ‘economy’ are identified at the intermediate cluster. The findings of this study can provide planners and decision makers with invaluable insights as to how to develop strategies for climate change adaptation in Tehran. Despite the scope of the study being confined to Tehran, its implications go far beyond this metropolis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Built Environment in a Changing Climate: Interactions, Challenges and Perspectives)

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23 pages, 5183 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Ranchers Adapting to Climate Variability in the Upper Colorado River Basin, Utah

by Hadia Akbar, L. Niel Allen, David E. Rosenberg and Yoshimitsu Chikamoto

Climate 2020, 8(9), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8090096 - 21 Aug 2020

Viewed by 3765

Abstract

In the Upper Colorado River Basin, agriculture is a major contributor to Utah’s economy, which may be stressed due to the changing climate. In this study, two data-mining techniques and interview data are used to explore how climate variability affects agricultural production and [...] Read more.

In the Upper Colorado River Basin, agriculture is a major contributor to Utah’s economy, which may be stressed due to the changing climate. In this study, two data-mining techniques and interview data are used to explore how climate variability affects agricultural production and the way the farmers have been adapting their practices to these changes. In the first part of the study, we used multilinear regression and random forest regression to understand the relationship between climate and agricultural production using temperature, precipitation, water availability, hay production, and cattle herd size. The quantitative results showed weak relations among variables. In the second part of the study, we interviewed ranchers to fill the gaps in the quantitative analysis. Over the 35 years (1981–2015), the quantitative analysis shows that temperature has affected cattle and hay production more than precipitation. Among non-climatic variables, resource availability and commodity prices are the most important factors that influence year-to-year production. Farmers are well-aware of these effects and have adapted accordingly. They have changed irrigation practices, cropping patterns, and are experimenting to produce a hybrid species of cattle, that are resilient to a hotter temperature and can use a wider variety of forage. Full article

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20 pages, 1660 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Potential Risks of Plant Invasions in Protected Areas of Sri Lanka under Climate Change with Special Reference to Threatened Vertebrates

by Champika S. Kariyawasam, Lalit Kumar and Sujith S. Ratnayake

Climate 2020, 8(4), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8040051 - 1 Apr 2020

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 6158

Abstract

There is substantial global concern over the potential impacts of plant invasions on native biodiversity in protected areas (PAs). Protected areas in tropical island countries that host rich biodiversity face an imminent risk from the potential spread of invasive alien plant species. Thus, [...] Read more.

There is substantial global concern over the potential impacts of plant invasions on native biodiversity in protected areas (PAs). Protected areas in tropical island countries that host rich biodiversity face an imminent risk from the potential spread of invasive alien plant species. Thus, the aim of this study was to gain a general understanding of the potential risks of multiple plant invasions in PAs located in the tropical island of Sri Lanka under projected climate change. We conducted a further analysis of a multi-species climate suitability assessment, based on a previous study using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and tested how species invasion may change in protected areas under climate change. We evaluated how the climate suitability of 14 nationally recognized invasive alien plant species (IAPS) will vary within PAs and outside PAs by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings suggest that there will be increased risks from multiple IAPS inside PAs and outside PAs in Sri Lanka in the future; however, the potential risk is comparatively less in PAs. We provide an overview of the species richness of selected threatened vertebrate groups, which can be potentially impacted by IAPS in PAs. The findings of this study highlight important implications for the strategic management of plant invasions in PAs in order to safeguard native biodiversity, with special reference to vertebrates. Full article

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21 pages, 2643 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

The Role of Individual and Small-Area Social and Environmental Factors on Heat Vulnerability to Mortality Within and Outside of the Home in Boston, MA

by Augusta A. Williams, Joseph G. Allen, Paul J. Catalano and John D. Spengler

Climate 2020, 8(2), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8020029 - 7 Feb 2020

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3914

Abstract

Climate change is resulting in heatwaves that are more frequent, severe, and longer lasting, which is projected to double-to-triple the heat-related mortality in Boston, MA if adequate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented. A case-only analysis was used to examine [...] Read more.

Climate change is resulting in heatwaves that are more frequent, severe, and longer lasting, which is projected to double-to-triple the heat-related mortality in Boston, MA if adequate climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are not implemented. A case-only analysis was used to examine subject and small-area neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between hot days and mortality. Deaths of Boston, Massachusetts residents that occurred from 2000–2015 were analyzed in relation to the daily temperature and heat index during the warm season as part of the case-only analysis. The modification by small-area (census tract, CT) social, and environmental (natural and built) factors was assessed. At-home mortality on hot days was driven by both social and environmental factors, differentially across the City of Boston census tracts, with a greater proportion of low-to-no income individuals or those with limited English proficiency being more highly represented among those who died during the study period; but small-area built environment features, like street trees and enhanced energy efficiency, were able to reduce the relative odds of death within and outside the home. At temperatures below current local thresholds used for heat warnings and advisories, there was increased relative odds of death from substance abuse and assault-related altercations. Geographic weighted regression analyses were used to examine these relationships spatially within a subset of at-home deaths with high-resolution temperature and humidity data. This revealed spatially heterogeneous associations between at-home mortality and social and environmental vulnerability factors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Built Environment in a Changing Climate: Interactions, Challenges and Perspectives)

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14 pages, 1466 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Climate Change and Sustaining Heritage Resources: A Framework for Boosting Cultural and Natural Heritage Conservation in Central Italy

by Ahmadreza Shirvani Dastgerdi, Massimo Sargolini, Shorna Broussard Allred, Allison Chatrchyan and Giuseppe De Luca

Climate 2020, 8(2), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8020026 - 5 Feb 2020

Cited by 38 | Viewed by 9699

Abstract

Climate change has dramatically affected the rainfall patterns and water systems in Central Italy. The vulnerability of this area to climate change and natural hazards necessitates that appropriate adaptation policies be put in place to protect heritage sites. This study aims to develop [...] Read more.

Climate change has dramatically affected the rainfall patterns and water systems in Central Italy. The vulnerability of this area to climate change and natural hazards necessitates that appropriate adaptation policies be put in place to protect heritage sites. This study aims to develop a cultural and natural heritage conservation framework for Central Italy that enhances the capacity of climate change adaptation for heritage resources. For this purpose, a comparison was made between the UNESCO (United National Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) Convention of 1972 and the European Landscape Convention of the Council of Europe to achieve a coherent vision for the protection of heritage resources in Europe. After describing the impacts of climate change on heritage resources in Central Italy, we analyze and suggest improvements to the conservation framework for wisely protecting heritage resources in a changing climate. The findings reveal that conservation sectors require assessments of the value of heritage resources at the territorial scale to effectively define conservation priorities, assess the vulnerabilities, and more precisely direct funding. In this respect, the integration of the European Landscape Convention with territorial planning may boost the unity of a conservation framework in terms of climate change while providing new opportunities for conservation authorities to develop adaptation policies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue World Heritage and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation)

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23 pages, 1325 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Mitigating Climate Change in the Cultural Built Heritage Sector

by Elena Sesana, Chiara Bertolin, Alexandre S. Gagnon and John J. Hughes

Climate 2019, 7(7), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070090 - 11 Jul 2019

Cited by 51 | Viewed by 7977

Abstract

Climate change mitigation targets have put pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of cultural heritage buildings. Commonly adopted measures to decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of historical buildings are targeted at improving their energy efficiency through insulating the building envelope, and upgrading [...] Read more.

Climate change mitigation targets have put pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of cultural heritage buildings. Commonly adopted measures to decrease the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of historical buildings are targeted at improving their energy efficiency through insulating the building envelope, and upgrading their heating, cooling and lighting systems. However, there are complex issues that arise when mitigating climate change in the cultural built heritage sector. For instance, preserving the authenticity of heritage buildings, maintaining their traditional passive behaviours, and choosing adaptive solutions compatible with the characteristics of heritage materials to avoid an acceleration of decay processes. It is thus important to understand what the enablers, or the barriers, are to reduce the carbon footprint of cultural heritage buildings to meet climate change mitigation targets. This paper investigates how climate change mitigation is considered in the management and preservation of the built heritage through semi-structured interviews with cultural heritage experts from the UK, Italy and Norway. Best-practice approaches for the refurbishment of historical buildings with the aim of decreasing their energy consumption are presented, as perceived by the interviewees, as well as the identification of the enablers and barriers in mitigating climate change in the cultural built heritage sector. The findings emphasise that adapting the cultural built heritage to reduce GHG emissions is challenging, but possible if strong and concerted action involving research and government can be undertaken to overcome the barriers identified in this paper. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue World Heritage and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation)

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13 pages, 1954 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

FCVLP: A Fuzzy Random Conditional Value-at-Risk-Based Linear Programming Model for Municipal Solid Waste Management

by Donglin Wang, Xiangming Kong, Shan Zhao and Yurui Fan

Climate 2019, 7(6), 80; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7060080 - 6 Jun 2019

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3415

Abstract

A fuzzy random conditional value-at-risk-based linear programming (FCVLP) model was proposed in this study for dealing with municipal solid waste (MSW) management problems under uncertainty. FCVLP improves upon the existing fuzzy linear programming and fuzzy random conditional value-at-risk methods by allowing analysis of [...] Read more.

A fuzzy random conditional value-at-risk-based linear programming (FCVLP) model was proposed in this study for dealing with municipal solid waste (MSW) management problems under uncertainty. FCVLP improves upon the existing fuzzy linear programming and fuzzy random conditional value-at-risk methods by allowing analysis of the risks of violating constraints that contain fuzzy parameters. A long-term MSW management problem was used to illustrate the applicability of FCVLP. The optimal feasibility solutions under various significance risk levels could be generated in order to analysis the trade-offs among the system cost, the feasibility degree of capacity constraints, and the risk level of waste-disposal-demand constraints. The results demonstrated that (1) a lower system cost may lead to a lower feasibility of waste-facility-capacity constraint and a higher risk of waste-disposal-demand constraint; (2) effects on system cost from vague information in incinerator capacity inputs would be greater than those in landfill capacity inputs; (3) the total allowable waste allocation would vary significantly because of the variations of risk levels and feasibility degrees. The proposed FCVLP method could be used to identify optimal waste allocation scenarios associated with a variety of complexities in MSW management systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environment Pollution and Climate Change)

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20 pages, 2115 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Green Infrastructure Financing as an Imperative to Achieve Green Goals

by Rae Zimmerman, Ryan Brenner and Jimena Llopis Abella

Climate 2019, 7(3), 39; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7030039 - 9 Mar 2019

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 7396

Abstract

Green infrastructure (GI) has increasingly gained popularity for achieving adaptation and mitigation goals associated with climate change and extreme weather events. To continue implementing GI, financial tools are needed for upfront project capital or development costs and later for maintenance. This study’s purpose [...] Read more.

Green infrastructure (GI) has increasingly gained popularity for achieving adaptation and mitigation goals associated with climate change and extreme weather events. To continue implementing GI, financial tools are needed for upfront project capital or development costs and later for maintenance. This study’s purpose is to evaluate financing tools used in a selected GI dataset and to assess how those tools are linked to various GI technologies and other GI project characteristics like cost and size. The dataset includes over 400 GI U.S. projects, comprising a convenience sample, from the American Society of Landscape Architects (ASLA). GI project characteristics were organized to answer a number of research questions using descriptive statistics. Results indicated that the number of projects and overall cost shares were mostly located in a few states. Grants were the most common financial tool with about two-thirds of the projects reporting information on financial tools receiving grant funding. Most projects reported financing from only one tool with a maximum of three tools. Projects primarily included multiple GI technologies averaging three and a maximum of nine. The most common GI technologies were bioswales, retention, rain gardens, and porous pavements. These findings are useful for decision-makers evaluating funding support for GI. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Resilience and Urban Sustainability)

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22 pages, 6797 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Constraints to Vegetation Growth Reduced by Region-Specific Changes in Seasonal Climate

by Hirofumi Hashimoto, Ramakrishna R. Nemani, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Andrew R. Michaelis, Sangram Ganguly, Weile Wang, Cristina Milesi, Ryan Eastman, Tsengdar Lee and Ranga Myneni

Climate 2019, 7(2), 27; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7020027 - 1 Feb 2019

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 4913

Abstract

We qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the factors related to vegetation growth using Earth system models and corroborated the results with historical climate observations. The Earth system models showed a systematic greening by the late 21st century, including increases of up to 100% in [...] Read more.

We qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the factors related to vegetation growth using Earth system models and corroborated the results with historical climate observations. The Earth system models showed a systematic greening by the late 21st century, including increases of up to 100% in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and 60% in Leaf Area Index (LAI). A subset of models revealed that the radiative effects of CO₂ largely control changes in climate, but that the CO₂ fertilization effect dominates the greening. The ensemble of Earth system model experiments revealed that the feedback of surface temperature contributed to 17% of GPP increase in temperature-limited regions, and radiation increase accounted for a 7% increase of GPP in radiation-limited areas. These effects are corroborated by historical observations. For example, observations confirm that cloud cover has decreased over most land areas in the last three decades, consistent with a CO₂-induced reduction in transpiration. Our results suggest that vegetation may thrive in the starkly different climate expected over the coming decades, but only if plants harvest the sort of hypothesized physiological benefits of higher CO₂ depicted by current Earth system models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

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18 pages, 290 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

What Can Policy-Makers Do to Increase the Effectiveness of Building Renovation Subsidies?

by Sibylle Studer and Stefan Rieder

Climate 2019, 7(2), 28; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7020028 - 1 Feb 2019

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3645

Abstract

Heating is responsible for a substantial share of global energy consumption and still relies strongly on fossil fuels. In order to reduce energy consumption for heating, subsidies for building renovations are a common policy measure in Europe. Policy makers often combine them with [...] Read more.

Heating is responsible for a substantial share of global energy consumption and still relies strongly on fossil fuels. In order to reduce energy consumption for heating, subsidies for building renovations are a common policy measure in Europe. Policy makers often combine them with information and advice measures. Policy mixes of this kind have been acknowledged widely in the literature, but their effectiveness needs further empirical examination. Based on a survey of the recipients of renovation subsidies and on four focus groups, we examine the (cost) effectiveness of subsidies, as follows: The effectiveness of renovation subsidies was measured by the extent to which receiving subsidies contributed either to the decision to renovate at all, or to the decision to enhance the quality or scope of the renovation. Fifty percent of the recipients surveyed reported that the subsidies contributed to a more energy-efficient renovation than was initially intended. The other fifty percent must be considered as free riders. Multivariate analyses further show that homeowners who used advice services and attributed outstandingly positive characteristics to the policy implementer were more likely to spend subsidies to improve energy efficiency. The findings demonstrate the importance of applying a combination of financial and persuasive policy measures. Additionally, they illustrate the importance of non-financial and non-technical factors, such as the communication competencies of the implementer, when designing policy measures. Full article

17 pages, 2912 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Statistical Analysis of Recent and Future Rainfall and Temperature Variability in the Mono River Watershed (Benin, Togo)

by Lawin Agnidé Emmanuel, Nina Rholan Hounguè, Chabi Angelbert Biaou and Djigbo Félicien Badou

Climate 2019, 7(1), 8; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010008 - 6 Jan 2019

Cited by 31 | Viewed by 6137

Abstract

This paper assessed the current and mid-century trends in rainfall and temperature over the Mono River watershed. It considered observation data for the period 1981–2010 and projection data from the regional climate model (RCM), REMO, for the period 2018–2050 under emission scenarios RCP4.5 [...] Read more.

This paper assessed the current and mid-century trends in rainfall and temperature over the Mono River watershed. It considered observation data for the period 1981–2010 and projection data from the regional climate model (RCM), REMO, for the period 2018–2050 under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Rainfall data were interpolated using ordinary kriging. Mann-Kendall, Pettitt and Standardized Normal Homogeneity (SNH) tests were used for trends and break-points detection. Rainfall interannual variability analysis was based on standardized precipitation index (SPI), whereas anomalies indices were considered for temperature. Results revealed that on an annual scale and all over the watershed, temperature and rainfall showed an increasing trend during the observation period. By 2050, both scenarios projected an increase in temperature compared to the baseline period 1981–2010, whereas annual rainfall will be characterized by high variabilities. Rainfall seasonal cycle is expected to change in the watershed: In the south, the second rainfall peak, which usually occurs in September, will be extended to October with a higher value. In the central and northern parts, rainfall regime is projected to be characterized by late onsets, a peak in September and lower precipitation until June and higher thereafter. The highest increase and decrease in monthly precipitation are expected in the northern part of the watershed. Therefore, identifying relevant adaptation strategies is recommended. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)

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19 pages, 6919 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Decadal Ocean Heat Redistribution Since the Late 1990s and Its Association with Key Climate Modes

by Lijing Cheng, Gongjie Wang, John P. Abraham and Gang Huang

Climate 2018, 6(4), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040091 - 19 Nov 2018

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 9712

Abstract

Ocean heat content (OHC) is the major component of the earth’s energy imbalance. Its decadal scale variability has been heavily debated in the research interest of the so-called “surface warming slowdown” (SWS) that occurred during the 1998–2013 period. Here, we first clarify that [...] Read more.

Ocean heat content (OHC) is the major component of the earth’s energy imbalance. Its decadal scale variability has been heavily debated in the research interest of the so-called “surface warming slowdown” (SWS) that occurred during the 1998–2013 period. Here, we first clarify that OHC has accelerated since the late 1990s. This finding refutes the concept of a slowdown of the human-induced global warming. This study also addresses the question of how heat is redistributed within the global ocean and provides some explanation of the underlying physical phenomena. Previous efforts to answer this question end with contradictory conclusions; we show that the systematic errors in some OHC datasets are partly responsible for these contradictions. Using an improved OHC product, the three-dimensional OHC changes during the SWS period are depicted, related to a reference period of 1982–1997. Several “hot spots” and “cold spots” are identified, showing a significant decadal-scale redistribution of ocean heat, which is distinct from the long-term ocean-warming pattern. To provide clues for the potential drivers of the OHC changes during the SWS period, we examine the OHC changes related to the key climate modes by regressing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) indices onto the de-trended gridded OHC anomalies. We find that no single mode can fully explain the OHC change patterns during the SWS period, suggesting that there is not a single “pacemaker” for the recent SWS. Our observation-based analyses provide a basis for further understanding the mechanisms of the decadal ocean heat uptake and evaluating the climate models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Postmortem of the Global Warming Hiatus)

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18 pages, 5046 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Changes in Earth’s Energy Budget during and after the “Pause” in Global Warming: An Observational Perspective

by Norman G. Loeb, Tyler J. Thorsen, Joel R. Norris, Hailan Wang and Wenying Su

Climate 2018, 6(3), 62; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030062 - 11 Jul 2018

Cited by 66 | Viewed by 26695

Abstract

This study examines changes in Earth’s energy budget during and after the global warming “pause” (or “hiatus”) using observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System. We find a marked 0.83 ± 0.41 Wm⁻² reduction in global mean reflected shortwave [...] Read more.

This study examines changes in Earth’s energy budget during and after the global warming “pause” (or “hiatus”) using observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System. We find a marked 0.83 ± 0.41 Wm⁻² reduction in global mean reflected shortwave (SW) top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux during the three years following the hiatus that results in an increase in net energy into the climate system. A partial radiative perturbation analysis reveals that decreases in low cloud cover are the primary driver of the decrease in SW TOA flux. The regional distribution of the SW TOA flux changes associated with the decreases in low cloud cover closely matches that of sea-surface temperature warming, which shows a pattern typical of the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Large reductions in clear-sky SW TOA flux are also found over much of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in the northern hemisphere. These are associated with a reduction in aerosol optical depth consistent with stricter pollution controls in China and North America. A simple energy budget framework is used to show that TOA radiation (particularly in the SW) likely played a dominant role in driving the marked increase in temperature tendency during the post-hiatus period. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Postmortem of the Global Warming Hiatus)

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21 pages, 4034 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

The Effect of Increasing Surface Albedo on Urban Climate and Air Quality: A Detailed Study for Sacramento, Houston, and Chicago

by Zahra Jandaghian and Hashem Akbari

Climate 2018, 6(2), 19; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020019 - 21 Mar 2018

Cited by 48 | Viewed by 8551

Abstract

Increasing surface reflectivity in urban areas can decrease ambient temperature, resulting in reducing photochemical reaction rates, reducing cooling energy demands and thus improving air quality and human health. The weather research and forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is coupled with the multi-layer of [...] Read more.

Increasing surface reflectivity in urban areas can decrease ambient temperature, resulting in reducing photochemical reaction rates, reducing cooling energy demands and thus improving air quality and human health. The weather research and forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is coupled with the multi-layer of the urban canopy model (ML-UCM) to investigate the effects of surface modification on urban climate in a two-way nested approach over North America focusing on Sacramento, Houston, and Chicago during the 2011 heat wave period. This approach decreases the uncertainties associated with scale separation and grid resolution and equip us with an integrated simulation setup to capture the full impacts of meteorological and photochemical reactions. WRF-ChemV3.6.1 simulated the diurnal variation of air temperature reasonably well, overpredicted wind speed and dew point temperature, underpredicted relative humidity, overpredicted ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations, and underpredicted fine particular matters (PM_2.5). The performance of PM_2.5 is a combination of overprediction of particulate sulfate and underprediction of particulate nitrate and organic carbon. Increasing the surface albedo of roofs, walls, and pavements from 0.2 to 0.65, 0.60, and 0.45, respectively, resulted in a decrease in air temperature by 2.3 °C in urban areas and 0.7 °C in suburban areas; a slight increase in wind speed; an increase in relative humidity (3%) and dew point temperature (0.3 °C); a decrease of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations by 2.7 µg/m³ and 6.3 ppb in urban areas and 1.4 µg/m³ and 2.5 ppb in suburban areas, respectively; minimal changes in PM_2.5 subspecies; and a decrease of nitrogen dioxide (1 ppb) in urban areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Overheating - Progress on Mitigation Science and Engineering Applications)

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1746 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

The Uncertain Role of Biogenic VOC for Boundary-Layer Ozone Concentration: Example Investigation of Emissions from Two Forest Types with a Box Model

by Boris Bonn, Jürgen Kreuzwieser, Felicitas Sander, Rasoul Yousefpour, Tommaso Baggio and Oladeinde Adewale

Climate 2017, 5(4), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040078 - 6 Oct 2017

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 6160

Abstract

High levels of air pollution including ground level ozone significantly reduce humans’ life expectancy and cause forest damage and decreased tree growth. The French Vosges and the German Black Forest are regions well-known for having the highest tropospheric ozone concentrations at remote forested [...] Read more.

High levels of air pollution including ground level ozone significantly reduce humans’ life expectancy and cause forest damage and decreased tree growth. The French Vosges and the German Black Forest are regions well-known for having the highest tropospheric ozone concentrations at remote forested sites in Central Europe. This box model study investigates the sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry calculations of derived ozone on differently resolved forest tree composition and volatile organic compound emissions. Representative conditions were chosen for the Upper Rhine area including the Alsatian Vosges/France and the Black Forest/Germany during summer. This study aims to answer the following question: What level of input detail for Alsace and Black Forest tree mixtures is required to accurately simulate ozone formation? While the French forest in Alsace—e.g., in the Vosges—emits isoprene to a substantially higher extent than the forest at the German site, total monoterpene emissions at the two sites are rather similar. However, the individual monoterpene structures, and therefore their reactivity, differs. This causes a higher ozone production rate for Vosges forest mixture conditions than for Black Forest tree mixtures at identical NO_x levels, with the difference increasing with temperature. The difference in ozone formation is analyzed in detail and the short-comings of reduced descriptions are discussed. The outcome serves as a to-do-list to allow accurate future ozone predictions influenced by the climate adaptation of forests and the change in forest species composition. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling Interactions Among Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere)

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7141 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceArticle

The Relationship between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature for the Last 425 Million Years

by W. Jackson Davis

Climate 2017, 5(4), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5040076 - 29 Sep 2017

Cited by 35 | Viewed by 70985

Abstract

Assessing human impacts on climate and biodiversity requires an understanding of the relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the Earth’s atmosphere and global temperature (T). Here I explore this relationship empirically using comprehensive, recently-compiled databases of stable-isotope proxies [...] Read more.

Assessing human impacts on climate and biodiversity requires an understanding of the relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the Earth’s atmosphere and global temperature (T). Here I explore this relationship empirically using comprehensive, recently-compiled databases of stable-isotope proxies from the Phanerozoic Eon (~540 to 0 years before the present) and through complementary modeling using the atmospheric absorption/transmittance code MODTRAN. Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is correlated weakly but negatively with linearly-detrended T proxies over the last 425 million years. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between CO₂ and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 77.9% are non-discernible (p > 0.05) and 60.0% of discernible correlations are negative. Marginal radiative forcing (ΔRF_CO₂), the change in forcing at the top of the troposphere associated with a unit increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, was computed using MODTRAN. The correlation between ΔRF_CO₂ and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRF_CO₂. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between ΔRF_CO₂ and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 75.0% are non-discernible and 41.2% of discernible correlations are negative. Spectral analysis, auto- and cross-correlation show that proxies for T, atmospheric CO₂ concentration and ΔRF_CO₂ oscillate across the Phanerozoic, and cycles of CO₂ and ΔRF_CO₂ are antiphasic. A prominent 15 million-year CO₂ cycle coincides closely with identified mass extinctions of the past, suggesting a pressing need for research on the relationship between CO₂, biodiversity extinction, and related carbon policies. This study demonstrates that changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration did not cause temperature change in the ancient climate. Full article

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632 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Germination Phenological Response Identifies Flora Risk to Climate Change

by Sarala Budhathoki Chhetri and Deepa Shree Rawal

Climate 2017, 5(3), 73; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030073 - 18 Sep 2017

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4040

Abstract

Climate change is prevalent across the world and can have large influence on plant regeneration, recruitment, survival and diversity. Regeneration and recruitment are the key phases in the plant life cycle and these two aspects are related to survival, adaptation and distribution of [...] Read more.

Climate change is prevalent across the world and can have large influence on plant regeneration, recruitment, survival and diversity. Regeneration and recruitment are the key phases in the plant life cycle and these two aspects are related to survival, adaptation and distribution of species. This study thus aims to explore the effect of projected climate change on germination and establishment response of some timber tree species from the tropical/subtropical broad leaf forests of Nepal. Germination experiments were carried out under three different temperature regimes (20, 25 and 30 °C) and germination parameters identified from the experimental component were calibrated in the mechanistic model Tree and Climate Assessment—Germination and Establishment Module (TACA-GEM) that helped in identifying species vulnerability to climate change. The model outcome under varied climatic conditions helped in determining the species risk to projected climatic conditions. The model demonstrates that the studied species were able to increase germination under the projected climate change however, establishment consistently failed for most of the species across the hot tropical sites. This finding indicates that spatial vulnerability may limit recruitment in the future. The species-specific responses suggest that, in general, all three species (Alnus nepalensis, Adina cordifolia, and Bombax ceiba) exhibited enhanced germination and establishment in moderately warm and colder sites, indicating that these species may more likely shift their range towards the north in future. Thus, the general species response exhibited in this study may aid in regional climate change adaptation planning in the sector of forest conservation and management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

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5563 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Variations of Rainfall Rhythm in Alto Pardo Watershed, Brazil: Analysis of Two Specific Years, a Wet and a Dry One, and Their Relation with the River Flow

by Pedro Augusto Breda Fontão and João Afonso Zavattini

Climate 2017, 5(3), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5030047 - 4 Jul 2017

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 6856

Abstract

This research aims to understand the variability and rhythm of rainfall for two specific standard-years, and their relation with the river flow of the Alto Pardo watershed, located in southeastern Brazil, and thus identify atmospheric systems that can cause extreme events, and which [...] Read more.

This research aims to understand the variability and rhythm of rainfall for two specific standard-years, and their relation with the river flow of the Alto Pardo watershed, located in southeastern Brazil, and thus identify atmospheric systems that can cause extreme events, and which may be reflected in heavy rainfall, floods, or drought episodes. Therefore, the research chose to investigate the years 1983 and 1984, rainy and dry standard-years respectively in the study area, where rainfall was described and spatialized through the geostatistical method of kriging at the monthly level and the rhythmic analysis technique was applied in order to identify what weather types are usual and extreme in the area. The results indicate that a high involvement of the frontal system in the year 1983 was responsible for the episodes of greater rainfall and peak water flow, especially in stationary front episodes. The year 1984 presented low rainfall in summer, a meteorological drought during the year, and the predominance of tropical air masses in relation to the frontal systems. The comparison between the two extreme years, a wet and a dry one, made it possible to understand the frequency and the chaining of the atmospheric systems during this period for the Alto Pardo watershed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)

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221 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

The Vulnerability of Rice Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review

by Fanen Terdoo and Giuseppe Feola

Climate 2016, 4(3), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030047 - 19 Sep 2016

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 10139

Abstract

Rice is one of the most important food crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change, variability, and economic globalization threatens to disrupt rice value chains across the subcontinent, undermining their important role in economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. This paper maps existing [...] Read more.

Rice is one of the most important food crops in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change, variability, and economic globalization threatens to disrupt rice value chains across the subcontinent, undermining their important role in economic development, food security, and poverty reduction. This paper maps existing research on the vulnerability of rice value chains, synthesizes the evidence and the risks posed by climate change and economic globalization, and discusses agriculture and rural development policies and their relevance for the vulnerability of rice value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. Important avenues for future research are identified. These include the impacts of multiple, simultaneous pressures on rice value chains, the effects of climate change and variability on parts of the value chain other than production, and the forms and extent to which different development policies hinder or enhance the resilience of rice value chains in the face of climatic and other pressures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)

9728 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

by Shabeh ul Hasson

Climate 2016, 4(3), 40; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030040 - 26 Aug 2016

Cited by 46 | Viewed by 10604

Abstract

Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB) suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime [...] Read more.

Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB) suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected—though likely but contrasting—climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future) climate change scenarios—consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns—in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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2238 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceReview

Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden

by Jonas Olsson, Berit Arheimer, Matthias Borris, Chantal Donnelly, Kean Foster, Grigory Nikulin, Magnus Persson, Anna-Maria Perttu, Cintia B. Uvo, Maria Viklander and Wei Yang

Climate 2016, 4(3), 39; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4030039 - 24 Aug 2016

Cited by 50 | Viewed by 14295

Abstract

Hydrological climate change impact assessment is generally performed by following a sequence of steps from global and regional climate modelling, through data tailoring (bias-adjustment and downscaling) and hydrological modelling, to analysis and impact assessment. This “climate-hydrology-assessment chain” has been developed with a primary [...] Read more.

Hydrological climate change impact assessment is generally performed by following a sequence of steps from global and regional climate modelling, through data tailoring (bias-adjustment and downscaling) and hydrological modelling, to analysis and impact assessment. This “climate-hydrology-assessment chain” has been developed with a primary focus on applicability to a medium-sized rural basin, which has been and still is the main type of domain investigated in this context. However, impact assessment is to an increasing degree being performed at scales smaller or larger than the medium-sized rural basin. Small-scale assessment includes e.g., impacts on solute transport and urban hydrology and large-scale assessment includes e.g., climate teleconnections and continental modelling. In both cases, additional complexity is introduced in the process and additional demands are placed on all components involved, i.e., climate and hydrology models, tailoring methods, assessment principles, and tools. In this paper we provide an overview of recent progress with respect to small- and large-scale hydrological climate change impact assessment. In addition, we wish to highlight some key issues that emerged as a consequence of the scale and that need further attention from now on. While we mainly use examples from work performed in Europe for illustration, the progress generally reflects the overall state of the art and the issues considered are of a generic character. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources)

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