Land Use Change, Carbon, and Markets

As the economic center and major grain-producing area in Southwest China, the calculation of the carbon budget and the protection of cultivated land in the Chengdu Plain are of vital significance for China to achieve a carbon peak strategy and ensure food security. For the purpose of clarifying the trend of land use focus and carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain, the carbon peak level of land use in 33 counties in the Chengdu Plain was explored. Based on the gravity center model and IPCC carbon emission coefficient method, the changing trend of land use gravity center and carbon emission in Chengdu Plain from 2006 to 2022 was clarified. PLS regression model and LMDI model were used to explore the main influencing factors of the carbon emission of cropland and the carbon emission of building land. PLUS model was used to simulate future land use patterns and carbon emissions. (1) The center of gravity of cropland, building land, water, and other and unused land shifted to the northeast by 4.23 km, 5.46 km, 8.44 km, and 31.58 km, respectively, and that of forest and grass shifted to the southeast by 11.12 km and 3.41 km, respectively. For major food crops, the centers of gravity of rice and maize moved northeastward by 15.47 km and 7.52 km, respectively, while wheat moved southwestward by 17.77 km. (2) From 2006 to 2022, carbon emissions from land use in the 33 counties of the Chengdu Plain are all on the rise, with a total increase of 13.552 million tons, and carbon sinks in the 31 counties continue to decline, with a total decrease of 0.691 million tons. (3) Under the natural scenario, carbon sink scenario, and carbon reduction scenario, the carbon emissions from land use decrease by 0.5391 million tons, 3.4728 million tons, and 4.5265 million tons from 2022, respectively. Among the 33 counties in the Chengdu Plain, 11 counties did not achieve carbon peak under the natural scenario, 5 counties did not achieve carbon peak under the carbon sink scenario, and all the counties achieved carbon peak under the carbon sink scenario. During the study period, there was a serious loss of cropland in the Chengdu Plain, mainly to building land in the central part of the Chengdu Plain and to forests within the Longmen Mountain, Longquan Mountain, and Leshan City, and there is a need to strengthen cropland protection in this region in the future. Under the natural scenario, carbon sink scenario, and carbon reduction scenario, land use in the Chengdu Plain region can achieve carbon peak, and the carbon reduction model will be more helpful for the counties to achieve carbon peak. Full article

Human activities impact greenhouse gas emissions through changes in land cover, land use, and land management. Conservation, restoration, and improved land use and land management are increasingly recognized as mitigation solutions. Policy instruments are crucial for addressing environmental challenges and supporting governance actors in enhancing carbon sequestration and reducing emissions in the land sector. The aim of this study was to evaluate the existing spatial decision support systems (SDSSs) for assessing land-based mitigation options and to help policymakers choose the best way to use and manage land. In order to search for tools, a systematic literature review was conducted, where 187 articles suitable for the specified criteria were found, from which 68 tools were selected. Additionally, following the application of the exclusion criteria, 18 tools were chosen for the final analysis. The tools were classified and analyzed based on various features such as type of land-use management, land use, country of application, information on carbon pools, and the number of published articles associated with each tool. Five SDSSs were found to be most suitable for policymakers seeking to implement the most effective land use and land management in order to enhance carbon sequestration. Full article

Research on land use carbon emission efficiency (LUCEE) in the Pan-Pearl River Delta (PPRD) can aid in formulating regional differentiated carbon reduction strategies. In this work, the inversion of carbon emissions using night-time light (NTL) data and the modified Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model were used to measure the net carbon emissions from land use (NCELU). On this basis, the SBM-undesirable model was used to assess the LUCEE. Additionally, the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), Dagum Gini coefficient, and spatial convergence model were further introduced to analyze the spatial correlation, regional differences, and convergence trend of the LUCEE. Findings indicate that: (1) The NCELU showed an increasing fluctuation. During the period of 2006–2020, the NCELU increased from −168.58 million tons to −724.65 million tons. (2) The LUCEE exhibited a three-phase fluctuating downward trend of “decrease–rise–decrease”. The LUCEE first decreased from 0.612 in 2006 to 0.544 in 2008, then gradually increased to 0.632 in 2016, and finally decreased to 0.488 in 2020. Spatially, the LUCEE manifested a distribution characteristic of “high in the north and south, low in the middle”, with distinct spatial clustering features. (3) The overall Gini coefficient in the study period increased from 0.1819 to 0.2461. The primary contributor to the overall difference over the entire sample period was hypervariable density. (4) The PPRD and its various subregions displayed significant features of absolute and conditional β convergence. The speed of regional convergence from fastest to slowest was central > west > east, with the absolute convergence speeds of 0.0505, 0.0360, and 0.0212, respectively. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to achieve regional carbon neutrality for the PPRD. Full article

In South Korea, Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) collates greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. However, the settlement category lacks a clear definition of land use and activity data. This study proposed a method for examining the settlement spatial extent and constructing activity data to estimate GHG emissions and absorption as a pilot calculation, as well as to provide data for land use classification. Utilizing cadastral maps (CDMs), settlement spatial extents were determined, with settlements occupying approximately 11% of the total land area in 2019, or 9% excluding overlaps. Activity data for settlements were established through a sampling method and analysis of aerial orthoimages from 2000 and 2019. After removing overlaps with digital forest type maps and smart farm maps, settlement activity data covered approximately 18.47% based on CDMs, or 12.66% excluding overlaps. In 2019, CO₂ emissions and absorptions were estimated at 622.16 ktCO₂yr⁻¹ based on CDMs and 242.16 ktCO₂yr⁻¹, excluding overlaps. To enhance GHG inventory calculation consistency and compliance with TACCC principles, clear spatial extents for settlements must be established. This entails constructing activity data and assessing GHG inventories accordingly. GHG inventory statistics should also inform future nationally determined contributions. Full article

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change, and the transformation of territorial space has a significant impact on the carbon cycle of a country’s terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, evaluating the impact of space transformation on carbon storage is essential for enhancing regional carbon storage potential and reducing carbon emissions. We use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to analyze the dynamic changes in territorial spatial transformation and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 in Suqian, as well as their relationship. On this basis, the optimization strategy and specific path for improving territorial space carbon storage capacity were determined. The results show the following: that (1) from 2000 to 2020, territorial spatial transformation in Suqian was dramatic, with the most significant changes occurring between 2005 and 2010. The scale of mutual transformation between agricultural production space and urban–rural construction space was the largest. (2) Carbon storage gradually decreased in Suqian City, with a total reduction of 1.23 × 10⁶ tons over 20 years and an annual decrease of 1.46%. The carbon density of forested space was significantly higher than that of other spaces. The conversion of agricultural production space and forestland space to urban–rural construction space was the main factor driving a decrease in carbon storage. (3) Territorial spatial transformation is a spatial manifestation of the evolution of human–land relationships. Regulating the function, scale, structure and layout of territorial space as a whole and implementing differentiated management of specific space will be beneficial to optimize carbon storage in Suqian. Full article

Revealing the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau could provide support for decision making in the protection of regional ecosystems and the achievement of regional dual-carbon goals. In this study, the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau was analyzed under various scenarios using PLUS-InVEST and a gravity center model, and the driving mechanisms of carbon storage were clarified with Geodetector. The results are as follows: (1) During 2000–2020, the areas of coniferous forest, evergreen broad-leaved forest, closed shrub, temperate shrub desert, multi-tree grassland, and grassland showed an increasing trend, while the areas of deciduous broad-leaved forest and mixed forest showed a decreasing trend. (2) During 2030–2060, there was a decreasing trend in the total carbon storage of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under three different scenarios. (3) During 2030–2060, the area of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau was mostly represented by carbon balance (56%), while the areas of carbon sources and carbon sinks showed a scattered distribution. (4) The precipitation and topographic factors with a q value of 0.888 played a dominant role in affecting the spatio-temporal variations in carbon storage in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. (5) In future ecological protection and restoration efforts, more high-quality farmlands should be protected and constructed, which could contribute to the achievement of dual-carbon goals. In addition, the hydrothermal conditions should be improved to aid the carbon cycle process in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Full article

In the context of the energy transition, the integration of land use considerations into energy planning can provide significant improvements. In energy system optimization models (ESOMs), land use aspects can be integrated at the cost of a finer spatial resolution and a more detailed characterization of land, tailored to regional constraints and specificities. Additionally, an assessment of trade-offs with alternative land uses is necessary. Nevertheless, they are commonly neglected. This study addresses the challenge of incorporating land use aspects into ESOMs, with a focus on the unique context of Pantelleria Island. It aims to bridge the gap in methodologies for renewable energy potential assessment and model integration, considering the critical role of land pricing and availability. It combines geospatial data aggregation with model adaptation to include detailed land use aspects. The findings highlight the substantial impact of land costs on renewable energy planning, with land pricing significantly altering model outcomes. This research offers key insights for sustainable energy planning and underscores the importance of considering land use in energy transition strategies. Full article

Research on the spatiotemporal changes in land use/cover (LUC) and carbon storage (CS) in the region of the Taihang Mountains in various developmental scenarios can provide significant guidance for optimizing the structure of LUC and formulating ecologically friendly economic development policies. We employed the PLUS and InVEST models to study change in LUC and CS in the Taihang Mountains from 1990 to 2020. Based on these results, we established three distinct development scenarios: a business-as-usual development scenario, a cropland protection scenario, and an ecological conservation scenario. Based on these three developmental scenarios, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in LUC and CS in the Taihang Mountains in 2035. The results indicate that: (1) from 1990 to 2020, the CS in the Taihang Mountains increased from 1575.91 Tg to 1598.57 Tg, with a growth rate of approximately 1.44%. The primary source of this growth is attributed to the expansion of forests. (2) In the business-as-usual development scenario, the growth rate of CS in the Taihang Mountains was approximately 0.45%, indicating a slowdown in the trend. This suggests that economic development has the consequences of aggravating human–land conflicts, leading to a deceleration in the growth of CS. (3) In the cropland protection scenario, the increase in the CS in the Taihang Mountains was similar to the CS increase in the business-as-usual development scenario. However, the expansion of cropland dominated by impermeable surfaces, which indicates economic development, was considerably constrained in this scenario. (4) In the ecological conservation scenario, the increase in carbon storage in the Taihang Mountains was 1.16%, which is the fastest among all three scenarios. At the same time, there was a certain degree of development of impermeable surfaces, achieving a balance between economic development and ecological conservation. Full article

Land use change is one of the main factors driving changes in terrestrial carbon storage, which comprises the storage of vegetation carbon and soil carbon. Selecting the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) as the study area, land use and carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 were analyzed by combining the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The main types of land use in CCUA are farmland and forest. The conversion of farmland to built-up land was the most important form of land use transfer between 2010 and 2020. Each type of land use shows the smallest change under the ecological protection scenario, and the degree of the comprehensive land use dynamic is only 0.19%. Under the natural development scenario, the areas of built-up land, wetland, and forest land will increase in 2030. Under the urban development scenario, the built-up land area will increase by 751.24 km², an increase in more than 10.08%, but farmland, forest, and grassland will decrease. The spatial pattern of carbon storage is “high in the east and west, low in the middle”; farmland accounts for the largest proportion of carbon storage at over 60% of the total. Carbon storage decreased by 29.45 × 10⁶ Mg from 2010 to 2020. Grassland showed the most significant decrease in carbon storage, with the proportion decreasing from 7.49% in 2010 to 6.09% in 2020. In 2030, the total carbon storage will reach 1844.68 × 10⁶ Mg under the ecological protection scenario, slightly higher than that in 2020, while it will show a downward trend under the natural development and urban development scenarios. Full article