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Land, Volume 14, Issue 11 (November 2025) – 26 articles

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29 pages, 12786 KB  
Article
Groundwater Overexploitation and Land Subsidence in the Messara Basin, Crete: Integrating Land Use, Hydrolithology and Basin-Scale Potentiometry with InSAR
by Ioannis Michalakis, Constantinos Loupasakis and Eleni Tsolaki
Land 2025, 14(11), 2124; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112124 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
The Messara Basin, a critical agricultural region in Crete, Greece, faces escalating geohazards, particularly land subsidence driven by intensive groundwater abstraction. Historical radar interferometry (1992–2009) indicated subsidence up to 20 mm·yr−1, while recent European Ground Motion Service data (2016–2021) show mean [...] Read more.
The Messara Basin, a critical agricultural region in Crete, Greece, faces escalating geohazards, particularly land subsidence driven by intensive groundwater abstraction. Historical radar interferometry (1992–2009) indicated subsidence up to 20 mm·yr−1, while recent European Ground Motion Service data (2016–2021) show mean vertical velocities reaching −31.2 mm·yr−1. This study provides the first integrated hydrogeological assessment for the Basin, based on systematic field surveys, borehole inventories, and four coordinated campaigns (2021–2023) that established a basin-wide monitoring network of 767 stations. The dataset supports delineation of recharge zones, identification of potentiometric depressions, and mapping of aquifer-stress areas. Results show strong seasonality and extensive cones of depression, with local heads declining to ~−50 m below sea level. Land-use change (1990–2018 CORINE data; 2000–2020 agricultural censuses) combined with updated geological mapping highlights the vulnerability of post-Alpine formations, especially Quaternary and Plio–Pleistocene deposits, to deformation. The combined evidence links pumping-induced head decline with spatially coherent subsidence, delineates hotspots of aquifer stress, and identifies zones of elevated compaction risk. These findings provide a decision-ready baseline to support sustainable groundwater management, including enhanced monitoring, targeted demand controls, and managed aquifer-recharge trials. Full article
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21 pages, 1385 KB  
Article
The Impact of Social Capital on Farmers’ Green Production Behavior: Moderation Effects Based on Agricultural Support and Protection Subsidies
by Zhuoyi Zhou and Aifeng Ning
Land 2025, 14(11), 2123; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112123 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Farmers’ green production behavior is key to addressing resource and environmental constraints and advancing agricultural green transformation, with social capital critically influencing their production decisions. However, rural population mobility amid urbanization and market economy penetration have reshaped farmers’ social interactions, reconstructing and differentiating [...] Read more.
Farmers’ green production behavior is key to addressing resource and environmental constraints and advancing agricultural green transformation, with social capital critically influencing their production decisions. However, rural population mobility amid urbanization and market economy penetration have reshaped farmers’ social interactions, reconstructing and differentiating social capital into distinct types. Few studies now focus on the complex link between this transformed social capital and farmers’ green production behavior. Moreover, though the government has long used agricultural subsidies to encourage green production, how these subsidies function when different social capital types affect green production remains unclear. To address the aforementioned issues, using 2022 CLES data and a binary logit model, this study examines how embedded and disembedded social capital influence farmers’ green production behavior and the moderating role of subsidies. Results show that (1) disembedded social capital has a significantly positive impact on farmers’ green production behavior, stronger than embedded social capital; (2) subsidies only positively moderate embedded social capital’s impact. The results have rich theoretical and practical implications, which can promote farmers’ adoption of green production behavior and accelerate the green transformation of agriculture. Full article
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22 pages, 10792 KB  
Review
How Grazing, Enclosure, and Mowing Intensities Shape Vegetation–Soil–Microbe Dynamics of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Grasslands: Insights for Spatially Differentiated Integrated Management
by Wei Song
Land 2025, 14(11), 2122; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112122 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Grasslands provide essential forage, fuel, and ecosystem services, underpinning regional livestock husbandry and ecological integrity. However, improper utilization drives structural degradation and functional decline of the vegetation–soil–microbe system, particularly on the ecologically sensitive and fragile Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The differential impacts of diverse [...] Read more.
Grasslands provide essential forage, fuel, and ecosystem services, underpinning regional livestock husbandry and ecological integrity. However, improper utilization drives structural degradation and functional decline of the vegetation–soil–microbe system, particularly on the ecologically sensitive and fragile Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). The differential impacts of diverse utilization practices on QTP grasslands remain inadequately understood, limiting scientific support for differentiated sustainable management. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to clarify effects of grazing, enclosure, and mowing on QTP grasslands, integrating studies from Web of Science, Google Scholar, and CNKI. We constructed disturbance intensity indicators to quantify utilization pressure and used multiple ecological metrics to characterize heterogeneous responses of the vegetation–soil–microbe system. Moderate grazing enhanced vegetation coverage, biomass, diversity, soil total phosphorus, and organic matter; high-intensity grazing reduced vegetation traits, soil bulk density, moisture, nutrients, and microbial biomass/diversity, while increasing soil pH. Early enclosure mitigated anthropogenic disturbance to improve grassland functions, but long-term enclosure exacerbated nutrient/moisture competition, lowering vegetation biomass/diversity and degrading soil properties. Moderate mowing improved vegetation communities by suppressing dominant species overexpansion; excessive mowing caused vegetation homogenization, soil carbon loss, and microbial destabilization. Impacts showed environmental heterogeneity linked to climate, soil, vegetation type, and elevation. In humid and fertile alpine meadows, moderate grazing more effectively promoted vegetation diversity and soil nutrient cycling, while in arid and nutrient-poor desert grasslands, even light grazing led to visible declines in vegetation coverage and soil moisture. Low-elevation alpine grasslands exhibited stronger positive responses to moderate grazing, whereas high-elevation alpine desert grasslands showed high vulnerability even to light grazing. Based on these mechanisms, regionally tailored strategies integrating multiple practices are required to balance ecological conservation and livestock production, promoting QTP grassland sustainability. In future research, we will strengthen quantitative exploration of how specific environmental factors regulate the magnitude and direction of grassland ecosystem responses to grazing, enclosure, and mowing, thereby providing more precise scientific basis for differentiated grassland management. Full article
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26 pages, 1259 KB  
Article
Multiple Driving Paths for Development of Agroforestry Economy: Configuration Analysis Based on fsQCA
by Guoxing Huang, Shaozhi Chen, Jixing Huang and Rong Zhao
Land 2025, 14(11), 2121; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112121 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Amidst global climate warming and increasingly severe food security challenges, the agroforestry economy, a green ecological industry that balances ecological conservation and economic development, has attracted widespread attention. This study constructs a theoretical analytical framework based on the diamond model to systematically identify [...] Read more.
Amidst global climate warming and increasingly severe food security challenges, the agroforestry economy, a green ecological industry that balances ecological conservation and economic development, has attracted widespread attention. This study constructs a theoretical analytical framework based on the diamond model to systematically identify key factors influencing the development of the agroforestry economy. Using 56 practical cases from the agroforestry economy in China as samples, the study applies Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to further explore the multiple driving paths of agroforestry economic development and their supporting elements. The research findings show that (1) forest resources, technological innovation, market demand, enterprise forms, related industries, and government support do not constitute necessary conditions for the development of the agroforestry economy. The path to the development of the agroforestry economy exhibits complex and concurrent multi-faceted characteristics. (2) Technological innovation has always been at the core of all configurations, and strengthening technological innovation plays a universal role in enhancing the level of agroforestry economic development. The role of government support in the process of the development of the agroforestry economy is limited. (3) The system identified four driving paths, including the endogenous type, characterized by resource technology enterprises; the collaborative type, characterized by a resource technology market with light promotion by the government; the external expansion type, characterized by market technology enterprises; and the linkage type, characterized by market technology enterprises assisted by related industries. The consistency level of the overall solution reached 0.91, and the coverage was 0.54. It reveals the different driving mechanisms with different combinations of elements for the development of the agroforestry economy. Therefore, each region should strengthen scientific and technological research, innovation, and the transformation and application of research outcomes. It should promote the coordinated development of diverse factors, establish tailored regional development models, and explore suitable pathways for developing the agroforestry economy based on its unique resource endowments. Full article
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18 pages, 2634 KB  
Article
From Subsistence Agro-Pastoral Farming to Tourism-Driven Land Transitions in Ladakh, India
by Andreas Buerkert, Maximilian Ibing, Thanh Thi Nguyen, Martin Wiehle, Imke Hellwig, Kotiganahalli Narayanagowda Ganeshaiah and Eva Schlecht
Land 2025, 14(11), 2120; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112120 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Population growth, urbanization, improved infrastructure, and climate change are reshaping land use systems worldwide, creating spatial trade-offs between economic development, ecosystem services, and cultural heritage. In Ladakh, Himalayan India, mass tourism and recent political changes have triggered a particularly rapid transition from traditional [...] Read more.
Population growth, urbanization, improved infrastructure, and climate change are reshaping land use systems worldwide, creating spatial trade-offs between economic development, ecosystem services, and cultural heritage. In Ladakh, Himalayan India, mass tourism and recent political changes have triggered a particularly rapid transition from traditional subsistence farming to market-oriented production, raising concerns about the sustainability of changing land management practices, cultural identity, and growing dependence on external inputs. To disentangle these concerns, we investigated land use changes, development patterns, and socio-economic drivers over the past 40 years. To this end we merged Landsat-based remote sensing data with household surveys in two contrasting, urbanizing regions—the Union Territory’s capital Leh and its more remote, third largest town of Diskit. Spatially explicit land cover maps for three periods of the 1970s, the 2000s, and the 2020s revealed an eightfold increase in residential area in Leh, with 41.7% of agricultural land converted to urban use, compared to a twofold increase and only 1.7% farmland loss in Diskit. Expansion of urban land use in Leh occurred in all directions across multiple land use types, while in Diskit, it remained localized to previously unused land. Survey data on socio-economic parameters showed a production shift toward goods demanded by tourism and the military, the latter being linked to border tensions with China and Pakistan. The divergent dynamics highlight the need for integrated spatial planning and scenario analysis to balance globalization-driven development with the conservation of cultural landscapes and ecosystem services. We recommend ecotourism-based strategies as an optimized pathway toward sustainable and multifunctional land systems in mountain regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatial Optimization for Multifunctional Land Systems)
31 pages, 9003 KB  
Article
Spatial Network Heterogeneity of Land Use Carbon Emissions and Ecosystem Services in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration
by Fanmin Liu, Xianchao Zhao and Mengjie Wang
Land 2025, 14(11), 2119; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112119 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Urban agglomerations are key to balancing carbon emissions (CEs) and ecosystem services (ESs), yet structural imbalances exist between LUCE and ESs due to the lack of standardized frameworks and clear governance strategies. This study investigates the relationship between LUCE and ESs in the [...] Read more.
Urban agglomerations are key to balancing carbon emissions (CEs) and ecosystem services (ESs), yet structural imbalances exist between LUCE and ESs due to the lack of standardized frameworks and clear governance strategies. This study investigates the relationship between LUCE and ESs in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration using multi-source data from 2010 to 2023. The study aims to address three main research questions: (1) How do LUCE and ES networks evolve over time? (2) What factors drive their heterogeneity? (3) How do urbanization and ecological restoration impact LUCE and ES network dynamics? To answer these, we apply centrality metrics and develop heterogeneity indices to evaluate connectivity, accessibility, and driving factors. The findings show that both LUCE and ES networks exhibit corridor-like structures, with asymmetric node distributions. The LUCE-Network’s degree centrality increased from 0.16 to 0.29, while the ES-Network’s rose from 0.16 to 0.23. Heterogeneity was initially positive but turned negative by 2023, indicating a shift from LUCE dominance to an increased emphasis on ES. This transition was influenced by urbanization, land use changes, and ecological restoration efforts. Notably, the proportion of built-up land (X11) grew from 0.0187 in 2010 to 0.1500 in 2023, intensifying the disparity between LUCE and ESs. Similarly, urbanization (X7) surged to 0.1558 in 2023, increasing CEs and the demand for ESs. A collaborative pathway is proposed to address these challenges, involving controlled urban development, restoration of green spaces, and prioritizing multimodal transport and energy efficiency. This framework offers actionable diagnostics for improving low-carbon and ecological governance in urban agglomerations. Full article
26 pages, 2798 KB  
Article
Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslide Susceptibility for Risk Management of Underground Services in a Mediterranean Metropolitan City
by Guido Paliaga, Martino Terrone, Nicola Bazzurro, Alessandra Marchese and Francesco Faccini
Land 2025, 14(11), 2118; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112118 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment is an essential research activity for land management and risk assessment. In this study, a GIS-based approach was developed to assess rain-induced landslide susceptibility in the Municipality of Genoa, a Mediterranean anthropized area historically characterized by intense rainfall events [...] Read more.
Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment is an essential research activity for land management and risk assessment. In this study, a GIS-based approach was developed to assess rain-induced landslide susceptibility in the Municipality of Genoa, a Mediterranean anthropized area historically characterized by intense rainfall events that frequently trigger shallow landslides with high destructive power. Based on a detailed inventory of historical landslides, a semi-quantitative method was applied to assess the influence of seven causal factors of natural and anthropogenic landslides. The areas were categorized into five classes of rain-induced shallow landslide susceptibility, indicating slopes where newly triggered landslides may occur. The landslide susceptibility map was subsequently integrated with the map of gas and water utilities, whose features were used to assess their vulnerability. Finally, an early-stage risk assessment of the two utility networks was developed to serve as a decision support tool for strategic planning and integrated asset management in the context of climate change. The results show that about 9.8% and 6.8% of the total length of water and gas pipelines are exposed to higher risk classes 4 and 5. Full article
27 pages, 66167 KB  
Article
Investigating the Influence of Urban Morphology on Seasonal Thermal Environment Based on Urban Functional Zones
by Meiling Zeng, Chunxia Liu, Yuechen Li, Bo He, Rongxiang Wang, Zihua Qian, Fang Wang, Qiao Huang, Peng Li, Bingrong Leng and Yunjing Huang
Land 2025, 14(11), 2117; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112117 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
With the rapid advancement of urbanization, urban heat environment issues have become increasingly severe, presenting significant challenges to sustainable urban development. Although previous research has demonstrated the substantial impact of urban morphology on land surface temperature (LST), there is still a lack of [...] Read more.
With the rapid advancement of urbanization, urban heat environment issues have become increasingly severe, presenting significant challenges to sustainable urban development. Although previous research has demonstrated the substantial impact of urban morphology on land surface temperature (LST), there is still a lack of comprehensive research on the non-stationary effects of urban morphology on seasonal LST at the block scale. Therefore, this study establishes a comprehensive research framework, utilizing urban functional zones in the core area of Chongqing as the primary research unit, to investigate the seasonal fluctuations in the spatial distribution of LST across various functional zones. Combining Random Forest (RF) with multiscale geographically weighted regression methods (MGWR), the study systematically analyzes the numerical and spatial distribution characteristics of how urban morphology factors influence LST from global and local perspectives. The results indicate that (1) the LST in central Chongqing exhibits marked seasonal variation and a distinct “mountain-water pattern,” with industrial zones consistently hotter and public service areas cooler; (2) biophysical surface parameters and building morphological indicators make a high relative contribution to LST changes across seasons, particularly in public service and commercial areas; (3) building density (BD) and biophysical surface parameters primarily exert local impacts on LST changes, while floor area ratio (FAR) and building height range (RBH) have a global effect. These findings provide new insights into the driving mechanisms of urban heat environments and offer scientific evidence for regulating and mitigating urban heat environment issues across different seasons and urban types. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Urban Planning on the Urban Heat Island Effect)
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28 pages, 2475 KB  
Article
Co-Evaluating Landscape as a Driver for Territorial Regeneration: The Industrial Archaeology of the Noto–Pachino Railway (Italy)
by Lucia Della Spina
Land 2025, 14(11), 2116; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112116 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
This contribution investigates the potential and the catalytic role of landscape and its collective values in driving territorial regeneration processes. Specifically, it reflects on how the public dimension of landscape—conceived as a shared space of identity, memory, and future-oriented practices—can serve as a [...] Read more.
This contribution investigates the potential and the catalytic role of landscape and its collective values in driving territorial regeneration processes. Specifically, it reflects on how the public dimension of landscape—conceived as a shared space of identity, memory, and future-oriented practices—can serve as a strategic lever for initiating local development pathways. Local communities, as custodians of the knowledge and practices that have historically shaped cultural landscapes, are increasingly recognized by territorial policies for their participatory and generative capacity. Building on these premises, the research explores the case of the disused Noto–Pachino railway line, located in southeastern Sicily (Italy), as a living laboratory for testing collaborative strategies aimed at enhancing landscape value and fostering territorial cohesion. The ongoing investigation has identified several civic and grassroots initiatives seeking to reactivate this dormant infrastructure, repositioning it as a strategic asset for sustainable territorial enjoyment, cultural heritage promotion, and the revitalization of marginalized areas. The main objective of the study is to define an “action lab”—a collaborative framework capable of aligning diverse visions, actors, and resources—through which landscape can be reimagined as both a driver of social innovation and a foundational tool for shaping inclusive and resilient development scenarios. Full article
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20 pages, 446 KB  
Article
Effects of Confirmation of Homestead Rights and Labor Transfer on Rural Income Inequality in China
by Cuimei Li, Jiazhen Li, Yi Fu and Weizhen Hu
Land 2025, 14(11), 2115; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112115 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the confirmation of homestead rights (CHR) in China, filling a gap in the research field of the distribution consequences of China’s homestead policy reform. The main innovation of this study is to demonstrate both theoretically and [...] Read more.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the confirmation of homestead rights (CHR) in China, filling a gap in the research field of the distribution consequences of China’s homestead policy reform. The main innovation of this study is to demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that the interaction between the CHR and labor transfer shapes a pro-poor outcome. This study constructed a novel binary economic mathematical framework and used intensity-based DID design on unique village household data. It was found that the CHR significantly reduced income inequality, and the transfer of working-age labor force was a powerful multiplier effect. The robustness checks, including RIF regression and PSM-DID, confirmed this causal relationship. In addition, heterogeneity analysis indicates that this impact is strongest in developed eastern regions, and, crucially, strongest in low-income and low dependency ratio households. This emphasizes that the effectiveness of CHR policies is determined by both market maturity and household structure. These findings emphasize the importance of combining land certification with labor mobility policies to achieve equitable development, providing a model worth exploring for resource allocation and institutional design in developing economies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Role of Land Policy in Shaping Rural Development Outcomes)
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26 pages, 13324 KB  
Article
The Role of Cultivation and Abandonment in Shaping Soil Erosion in the San Blas-Binġemma Valley System on the Island of Gozo, Malta
by Charles Galdies, Shirley Muscat and Anthony Sacco
Land 2025, 14(11), 2114; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112114 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Soil erosion is a growing environmental issue around the world, including in Malta. This study focused on estimating soil loss in the San Blas and Binġemma valleys on the island of Gozo, the second largest in the Maltese archipelago. To do this, we [...] Read more.
Soil erosion is a growing environmental issue around the world, including in Malta. This study focused on estimating soil loss in the San Blas and Binġemma valleys on the island of Gozo, the second largest in the Maltese archipelago. To do this, we used the RUSLE model combined with GIS tools, supported by fieldwork and lab testing of soil properties like texture and organic matter to ensure accurate, ground-based data. A key part of the research was also to understand how much the C-factor in RUSLE, which relates to crop cover, affects erosion in the area. We compared present-day erosion patterns with those from 1957 by analyzing old aerial photos and reconstructing land use back then. The findings show that in 1957, soil erosion was more widespread but generally milder, with most areas losing less than 2.0 t ha−1 yr−1. In contrast, in 2021, erosion tends to be more intense but limited to specific areas, especially along the valley floor, where losses reached up to 13.0 t ha−1 yr−1 compared to 5.5 t ha−1 yr−1 in 1957. The results also suggest that fields under cultivation are more prone to erosion compared to areas that have been abandoned. Based on these trends, this study recommends maintaining traditional erosion control methods like terraces and dry stone-walls, and encouraging farmers to adopt practices such as crop rotation, conservation tillage, contour planting, and strip cropping. It also suggests carrying out similar assessments in other valleys to guide valley-specific actions. Full article
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18 pages, 10413 KB  
Article
Non-Negligible Urbanization Effects on Trend Estimates of Total and Extreme Precipitation in Northwest China
by Chunli Liu, Panfeng Zhang, Guoyu Ren, Haibo Du, Guowei Yang and Ziying Guo
Land 2025, 14(11), 2113; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112113 (registering DOI) - 24 Oct 2025
Abstract
Quantifying and removing urbanization-induced biases in existing precipitation datasets is critical for climate change detection, model assessment, and attribution studies in Northwest China (NWC). The precipitation observational stations of NWC were divided into rural (reference) stations and urban stations using the percentage of [...] Read more.
Quantifying and removing urbanization-induced biases in existing precipitation datasets is critical for climate change detection, model assessment, and attribution studies in Northwest China (NWC). The precipitation observational stations of NWC were divided into rural (reference) stations and urban stations using the percentage of urban areas calculated from the land use/land cover (LULC) satellite data of the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Land Cover project. The annual extreme precipitation index series for urban stations (all stations) and rural stations from 1961 to 2022 were calculated based on the categorization of meteorological stations, and the urbanization effects and their contributions to precipitation index series were quantitatively evaluated through estimating trends in the difference series between all stations and the rural stations. The results showed that the urbanization effect varies among different regions and indices. The R10mm, R95pTOT, R99pTOT, and PRCPTOT indices in the sampled urban areas of NWC exhibited statistically significant negative urbanization effects, reaching −0.075 days decade−1, −0.038 % decade−1, −0.024 % decade−1, and −0.035 % decade−1, respectively. However, the R95pTOT, SDII, CDD, and CWD indices at the urban station of the largest city, Urumqi, have been significantly positively affected by urbanization, which is inconsistent with the sampled urban areas of NWC, where the urbanization effect reached 0.069 % decade−1, 0.054 mm·d−1 decade−1, 2.319 days decade−1, and 0.112 days decade−1, respectively. Our analysis shows that the previously reported regional increase in total precipitation and extremes has been underestimated due to the negative urbanization effects in the precipitation data series of urban stations. Full article
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18 pages, 3428 KB  
Article
Farming on the Edge: The 10-Fold Deficit in Lombardy’s Agricultural Land
by Stefano Salata, Andrea Arcidiacono, Stefano Corsi, Chiara Mazzocchi, Alberto Fedalto and Domenico Riccobene
Land 2025, 14(11), 2112; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112112 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Lombardy is Italy’s leading region in primary agricultural production, yet it faces a significant decline in agricultural soil, primarily due to urban expansion. This land consumption largely affects arable areas, as land is repurposed for low-density residential developments, roads, logistics, and commercial or [...] Read more.
Lombardy is Italy’s leading region in primary agricultural production, yet it faces a significant decline in agricultural soil, primarily due to urban expansion. This land consumption largely affects arable areas, as land is repurposed for low-density residential developments, roads, logistics, and commercial or industrial hubs. The reduction in agricultural land threatens regional food security and increases dependency on external markets. This study determines the long-term sustainability of this trend by estimating the actual quantity of agricultural land required to satisfy the food demand of the region’s citizens. The research employed a two-part georeferenced analysis. First, a cross-tabulation matrix quantified the land consumption over two decades. Second, the Planning Forecasts Map was analyzed, coupled with new road projects, to estimate future potential land consumption embedded in Land Use Plans (PGT). Finally, food consumption was converted into the required hectares of agricultural land per capita and compared to the current stock of agricultural land to quantify the deficit by municipality. The dramatic spatial deficit confirms that the current trajectory of land consumption is unsustainable, leaving Lombardy’s food security highly dependent on imports. While regional laws have reduced planned urbanization, the limitation of land take remains far from the goals. The results highlight the urgent need for effective compensatory measures and mitigation strategies that account for the true magnitude and spatial distribution of the agricultural land deficit, particularly in the most critical urban and peri-urban areas. Full article
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34 pages, 8024 KB  
Article
The Dehesa as Landscape Heritage from the Perspective of the New Generation
by Rebeca Guillén-Peñafiel, Ana-María Hernández-Carretero and José-Manuel Sánchez-Martín
Land 2025, 14(11), 2111; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112111 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
The dehesa, as a socio-ecological system and cultural landscape, is a strategic resource for environmental education, territorial sustainability, and the intergenerational transmission of knowledge. This study analyzes the perception of primary school students in Extremadura regarding this environment, using a mixed methodology that [...] Read more.
The dehesa, as a socio-ecological system and cultural landscape, is a strategic resource for environmental education, territorial sustainability, and the intergenerational transmission of knowledge. This study analyzes the perception of primary school students in Extremadura regarding this environment, using a mixed methodology that combines statistical, semantic, and spatial analysis. The results show a generally positive assessment of the dehesa heritage, although accompanied by a disconnect between this symbolic assessment and direct experience of the territory, especially in urban contexts. It identifies significant differences between students from rural and urban environments in terms of their knowledge of trades, products, and dehesa spaces, as well as their preferred activities in the dehesa. While rural students show greater interest in operational activities and direct contact with the environment (such as feeding livestock and milking), urban students lean toward sensory or symbolic experiences (such as consuming products or occasional harvesting), reflecting different ways of connecting with the territory. Spatial analysis reveals that more than 80% of schools are located less than 5 km from well-preserved dehesa areas, which represents an opportunity to integrate these landscapes into formal education. However, inequalities in access from special education centers have been detected, posing challenges in terms of territorial and educational equity. This study concludes that the dehesa should be recognized as an open classroom, capable of fostering roots, ecological literacy, and cultural sustainability through contextualized and territory-sensitive pedagogical approaches. Full article
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21 pages, 3036 KB  
Article
Spatial Inequalities and the Sensitivity of Social Vulnerability in Ecuador
by Viviana Torres-Díaz, María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, José Álvarez-García and Francisco Venegas-Martínez
Land 2025, 14(11), 2110; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112110 (registering DOI) - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Vulnerability to hazards is a critical global issue, as it not only depends on the magnitude of natural hazards but also on the underlying social and economic conditions of communities. Understanding these factors is essential for designing effective risk reduction strategies and informed [...] Read more.
Vulnerability to hazards is a critical global issue, as it not only depends on the magnitude of natural hazards but also on the underlying social and economic conditions of communities. Understanding these factors is essential for designing effective risk reduction strategies and informed policy decisions. The objective of this research is to define a social vulnerability index (SoVI) and to analyse its distribution at the provincial and urban levels by applying different aggregation methods. This study provides a novel approach by examining the sensitivity of the index to different weighting methodologies, addressing a gap in the literature regarding the robustness of social vulnerability measures. An alternative approach is provided to determine the sensitivity of the SoVI in regions, in addition to understanding the dynamics of the socioeconomic characteristics considered in the territory and contributing to the theoretical and normative discussion of the construction of the index. To meet the objective, a sensitivity analysis is provided through different methods of weighting the vulnerability dimensions. The results indicate that the distribution of the SoVI in the provinces of Ecuador is heterogeneous, highlighting the importance of considering local socioeconomic contexts in vulnerability assessments. Additionally, the study shows that the values of the constructed index are sensitive to the weighting methods of the dimensions, which underscores the need for a careful selection of aggregation techniques to ensure reliable policy implications. It was also possible to identify that when social vulnerability is analysed at the city level, these show higher values than the corresponding provinces, challenging the common assumption that urban areas inherently provide better living conditions. This finding contributes to the ongoing debate on the impacts of rapid urbanization on social vulnerability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Vulnerability and Resilience of Urban Planning and Design)
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28 pages, 5460 KB  
Article
Assessment of Potential Landslide Scenarios Using Morphometry, Geomorphological Constraints, and Run-Out Analysis: A Case Study from Central Apennines (Italy)
by Giorgio Paglia, Giovanni Santucci, Marcello Buccolini and Enrico Miccadei
Land 2025, 14(11), 2109; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112109 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Landslides are among the most damaging natural hazards, posing significant threats to human lives and infrastructures, especially in mountainous regions such as the Central Apennines (Italy). This study focuses on the Mt. Marsicano catchment (2245 m a.s.l.), characterized by peculiar morphometric features and [...] Read more.
Landslides are among the most damaging natural hazards, posing significant threats to human lives and infrastructures, especially in mountainous regions such as the Central Apennines (Italy). This study focuses on the Mt. Marsicano catchment (2245 m a.s.l.), characterized by peculiar morphometric features and geomorphological constraints that highlight the possibility of potential landslide scenarios. The methodological approach led to the identification of potential landslide propagation patterns. The RAMMS::DEBRIS FLOW module was used to model two potential landslide scenarios: a debris flow-like movement with a volume of 2.03 × 104 m3 and a rock avalanche-like movement with a volume of 1.2 × 106 m3. Findings from the latter scenario suggested river obstruction and potential lake formation upstream. Triggering mechanisms were partially explored, linking the debris flow scenario to heavy rainfall events (>50 mm/day) and the rock avalanche scenario to earthquakes with Mw > 5.0. Despite the absence of occurred landslides for back-calculation analysis and modeling based on geomorphic evidence rather than calibrating to a specific local past event, the study provides preliminary clues about the combination between morphometric analysis and geomorphological constraints in hypothesizing potential landslide scenarios. It provides a foundation for anticipating future landslide impacts in mountainous areas with limited historical data, offering valuable geomorphological insights for preventive hazard assessment and mitigation strategies in similar environments. Full article
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20 pages, 2199 KB  
Article
Economic Resilience as a Mediator: Assessing the Impact of China’s Grazing Withdrawal Project on Herders’ Well-Being in the Yellow River Source Region
by Cuizhen Xia, Lihua Zhou, Xiaodong Pei and Ya Wang
Land 2025, 14(11), 2108; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112108 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Investigating how China’s most extensive grassland conservation program, the Grazing Withdrawal Project, impacts herders’ resilience and welfare levels is crucial for promoting sustainable grassland protection and enabling herders to withstand external shocks. However, few empirical studies have linked policy measures, economic resilience, and [...] Read more.
Investigating how China’s most extensive grassland conservation program, the Grazing Withdrawal Project, impacts herders’ resilience and welfare levels is crucial for promoting sustainable grassland protection and enabling herders to withstand external shocks. However, few empirical studies have linked policy measures, economic resilience, and subjective well-being. Based on 266 questionnaires from the Yellow River Source Region, we constructed an indicator system for evaluating economic resilience and employed multiple linear regression to explore the key variables affecting herders’ economic resilience and subjective well-being under the context of the project and to clarify the mediating effect of resilience in translating government interventions into enhanced welfare. The results reveal that households in the Yellow River Source Region were characterized by “low economic resilience yet high subjective well-being.” Among the three resilience dimensions, recovery capacity and reorganization capacities were comparatively weak. Economic resilience had a significant positive impact on herders’ well-being, partially mediating the relationship between policy variables and subjective well-being. Compared with other policy measures, subsidy adequacy and emergency support remained the primary drivers of subjective well-being. Future policy should innovate a diversified subsidy regime that maintains herders’ subjective well-being while making up for the shortcomings of reorganization capacity, thereby securing the sustainability of livelihoods alongside ecological conservation. Full article
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24 pages, 6560 KB  
Article
Measuring Urban–Peripheral Disparities in Fresh Food Access: Spatial Equity Analysis of Wet Markets in Shanghai
by Yuefu Liu, Qian-Cheng Wang and Kexin Zhang
Land 2025, 14(11), 2107; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112107 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Wet markets serve as critical infrastructure for access to fresh food for urban residents in China, playing a vital role in daily life and public well-being. However, their accessibility is often shaped by disparities between urban cores and rapidly expanding peripheral districts, raising [...] Read more.
Wet markets serve as critical infrastructure for access to fresh food for urban residents in China, playing a vital role in daily life and public well-being. However, their accessibility is often shaped by disparities between urban cores and rapidly expanding peripheral districts, raising concerns over spatial equity in the urban food environment. This study investigates these disparities in Shanghai by comparing wet market accessibility in Putuo district (urban core) and Minhang district (periphery). Accessibility is measured using the Gaussian-enhanced two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method, incorporating travel time data from the Baidu Map API for multiple transportation modes. The Gini coefficient is further employed to evaluate the equity of accessibility distribution. The results reveal a notable disparity: residents in the periphery (Minhang) experience a higher average level of accessibility, but their access is distributed significantly less equitably compared to those in the traditional urban core (Putuo). These findings underscore a critical trade-off between development efficiency and spatial equity, highlighting the need for targeted planning strategies and policies to address spatial inequalities in fresh food access in rapidly transforming cities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Planning and Landscape Architecture)
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15 pages, 5749 KB  
Article
Using UAVs to Detect Fine-Scale Signals of Land Degradation and Rehabilitation in West African Drylands
by Devon Maloney, Colin Thor West, Alfredo J. Rojas, Aaron Moody and GEVAPAF
Land 2025, 14(11), 2106; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112106 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Experts have long associated West Africa’s drylands with extensive and severe land degradation. In fact, the term “desertification” was coined in reference to the great Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. Thus, much research has focused on Sahelian countries where there have [...] Read more.
Experts have long associated West Africa’s drylands with extensive and severe land degradation. In fact, the term “desertification” was coined in reference to the great Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. Thus, much research has focused on Sahelian countries where there have also been numerous large-scale projects to combat desertification. Wetter, southern Sudanian savannas have received less attention. At the same time, scientific experts and policymakers have seriously questioned desertification as a concept and advocate for a new paradigm of land degradation neutrality (LDN). This entails assessing both land degradation and rehabilitation. The northern Sudanian savannas of Togo had been previously identified as an area with widespread and increasing land degradation based on regional analyses with coarse satellite imagery. Little or no rehabilitation had been either studied or detected. This study sought to follow up on these previous works to investigate local-scale patterns of both land degradation and rehabilitation. Fieldwork entailed a place-based approach using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones) and participatory exercises with local stakeholders across nine sites. The spatial analysis incorporated local perceptions to classify the drone imagery. Results indicate that LDN varies markedly among the communities and that patterns of LDN are highly heterogeneous at these local scales. Full article
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12 pages, 22225 KB  
Article
Soil Organic Carbon Mapping Using Multi-Frequency SAR Data and Machine Learning Algorithms
by Pavan Kumar Bellam, Murali Krishna Gumma, Narayanarao Bhogapurapu and Venkata Reddy Keesara
Land 2025, 14(11), 2105; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112105 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a critical component of soil health, influencing soil structure, soil water retention capacity, and nutrient cycling while playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Accurate SOC estimation over croplands is essential for sustainable land management and [...] Read more.
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a critical component of soil health, influencing soil structure, soil water retention capacity, and nutrient cycling while playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Accurate SOC estimation over croplands is essential for sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. This study explores a novel approach to SOC estimation using multi-frequency synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, specifically Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 imagery, combined with advanced machine learning techniques for cropland SOC estimation. Diverse agricultural practices, with major crop types such as rice (Oryza sativa), finger millet (Eleusine coracana), Niger (Guizotia abyssinica), maize (Zea mays), and vegetable cultivation, characterize the study region. By integrating C-band (Sentinel-1) and L-band (ALOS-2/PALSAR-2) SAR data with key polarimetric features such as the C2 matrix, entropy, and degree of polarization, this study enhances SOC estimation. These parameters help distinguish variations in soil moisture, texture, and mineral composition, reducing their confounding effects on SOC estimation. An ensemble model incorporating Random Forest (RF) and neural networks (NNs) was developed to capture the complex relationships between SAR data and SOC. The NN component effectively models complex non-linear relationships, while the RF model helps prevent overfitting. The proposed model achieved a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.64 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.18, demonstrating its predictive capability. In summary, our results offer an efficient approach for enhanced SOC mapping in diverse agricultural landscapes, with ongoing work targeting challenges in data availability to facilitate large-scale SOC mapping. Full article
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25 pages, 18442 KB  
Article
Exploring the Spatial Coupling Between Visual and Ecological Sensitivity: A Cross-Modal Approach Using Deep Learning in Tianjin’s Central Urban Area
by Zhihao Kang, Chenfeng Xu, Yang Gu, Lunsai Wu, Zhiqiu He, Xiaoxu Heng, Xiaofei Wang and Yike Hu
Land 2025, 14(11), 2104; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112104 - 23 Oct 2025
Abstract
Amid rapid urbanization, Chinese cities face mounting ecological pressure, making it critical to balance environmental protection with public well-being. As visual perception accounts for over 80% of environmental information acquisition, it plays a key role in shaping experiences and evaluations of ecological space. [...] Read more.
Amid rapid urbanization, Chinese cities face mounting ecological pressure, making it critical to balance environmental protection with public well-being. As visual perception accounts for over 80% of environmental information acquisition, it plays a key role in shaping experiences and evaluations of ecological space. However, current ecological planning often overlooks public perception, leading to increasing mismatches between ecological conditions and spatial experiences. While previous studies have attempted to introduce public perspectives, a systematic framework for analyzing the spatial relationship between ecological and visual sensitivity remains lacking. This study takes 56,210 street-level points in Tianjin’s central urban area to construct a coordinated analysis framework of ecological and perceptual sensitivity. Visual sensitivity is derived from social media sentiment analysis (via GPT-4o) and street-view image semantic features extracted using the ADE20K semantic segmentation model, and subsequently processed through a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model. Ecological sensitivity is calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)—based model integrating elevation, slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land use, and nighttime light data. A coupling coordination model and bivariate Moran’s I are employed to examine spatial synergy and mismatches between the two dimensions. Results indicate that while 72.82% of points show good coupling, spatial mismatches are widespread. The dominant types include “HL” (high visual–low ecological) areas (e.g., Wudadao) with high visual attention but low ecological resilience, and “LH” (low visual–high ecological) areas (e.g., Huaiyuanli) with strong ecological value but low public perception. This study provides a systematic path for analyzing the spatial divergence between ecological and perceptual sensitivity, offering insights into ecological landscape optimization and perception-driven street design. Full article
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19 pages, 2289 KB  
Article
From “Policy-Driven” to “Park Clustering”: Evolution and Attribution of Location Selection for Pollution-Intensive Industries in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration
by Huixin Zhou, Ziqing Tang, Yumeng Luo, Dingyang Zhou and Guanghui Jiang
Land 2025, 14(11), 2103; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112103 - 22 Oct 2025
Abstract
Pollution-intensive industries (PIIs) generate substantial economic benefits while posing serious environmental challenges, making the optimization of their spatial distribution a critical issue for sustainable development. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics behind PII location patterns is essential for effective land-use planning and industrial policy. This [...] Read more.
Pollution-intensive industries (PIIs) generate substantial economic benefits while posing serious environmental challenges, making the optimization of their spatial distribution a critical issue for sustainable development. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics behind PII location patterns is essential for effective land-use planning and industrial policy. This study investigates the location patterns of newly established PIIs in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration of China between 2007 and 2019. By integrating principal component analysis with a geographically and temporally weighted regression model, the research explores how key drivers influence PII distribution across both spatial and temporal dimensions. The results indicate that government intervention has historically been the most significant factor shaping PII distribution, although its influence has gradually declined due to increasing marketization and technological progress. PIIs are more likely to cluster in areas with moderate levels of economic development, as both very high and very low development levels tend to discourage agglomeration. Over time, improvements in infrastructure, transportation and market conditions have enabled PIIs to overcome geographical constraints. Moreover, industrial parks have emerged as a critical factor by offering cost-efficiency and resource optimization, thereby attracting new PII investment. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatiotemporal heterogeneity when analyzing industrial distribution. The study provides policy-relevant insights into industrial land-use planning, highlighting the need for differentiated land supply strategies and the strategic development of industrial parks. It also offers useful references for other developing countries facing similar challenges amid the ongoing restructuring of global manufacturing. Full article
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18 pages, 6970 KB  
Article
Beyond Proximity: Assessing Social Equity in Park Accessibility for Older Adults Using an Improved Gaussian 2SFCA Method
by Yi Huang, Wenjun Wu, Zhenhong Shen, Jie Zhu and Hui Chen
Land 2025, 14(11), 2102; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112102 - 22 Oct 2025
Abstract
Urban park green spaces (UPGSs) play a critical role in enhancing residents’ quality of life, particularly for older adults. However, inequities in accessibility and resource distribution remain persistent challenges in aging urban areas. To address this issue, this study takes Gulou District, Nanjing [...] Read more.
Urban park green spaces (UPGSs) play a critical role in enhancing residents’ quality of life, particularly for older adults. However, inequities in accessibility and resource distribution remain persistent challenges in aging urban areas. To address this issue, this study takes Gulou District, Nanjing City, as an example and proposes a comprehensive framework to evaluate the overall quality of UPGSs. Furthermore, an enhanced Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method is introduced that incorporates (1) a multidimensional park quality score derived from an objective evaluation system encompassing ecological conditions, service quality, age-friendly facilities, and basic infrastructure; and (2) a Gaussian distance decay function calibrated to reflect the walking and public transit mobility patterns of the older adults in the study area. The improved method calculates the accessibility values of UPGSs for older adults living in residential communities under the walking and public transportation scenarios. Finally, factors influencing the social equity of UPGSs are analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficients. The experimental results demonstrate that (1) high-accessibility service areas exhibit clustered distributions, with significant differences in accessibility levels across the transportation modes and clear spatial gradient disparities. Specifically, traditional residential neighborhoods often present accessibility blind spots under the walking scenario, accounting for 50.8%, which leads to insufficient accessibility to public green spaces. (2) Structural imbalance and inequities in public service provision have resulted in barriers to UPGS utilization for older adults in certain communities. On this basis, targeted improvement strategies based on accessibility characteristics under different transportation modes are proposed, including the establishment of multi-tiered networked UPGSs and the upgrading of slow-moving transportation infrastructure. The research findings can enhance service efficiency through evidence-based spatial resource reallocation, offering actionable insights for optimizing the spatial layout of UPGSs and advancing the equitable distribution of public services in urban core areas. Full article
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29 pages, 16565 KB  
Article
Multi-Scale Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services and Detection of Their Driving Mechanisms in Southeast Coastal China
by Haoran Zhang, Xin Fu, Jin Huang, Zhenghe Xu and Yu Wu
Land 2025, 14(11), 2101; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112101 - 22 Oct 2025
Abstract
Intensive human interference has severely disrupted the natural and ecological environments of coastal areas, threatening ecosystem services (ESs). Meanwhile, the relationships between ESs exhibit certain variations across different spatial scales. Therefore, identifying the scale effects of interrelationships among ESs and their underlying driving [...] Read more.
Intensive human interference has severely disrupted the natural and ecological environments of coastal areas, threatening ecosystem services (ESs). Meanwhile, the relationships between ESs exhibit certain variations across different spatial scales. Therefore, identifying the scale effects of interrelationships among ESs and their underlying driving mechanisms will better support scientific decision-making for the hierarchical and sustainable management of coastal ecosystems. Therefore, employing the Integrated Valuation of ESs and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model combined with GIS spatial visualization techniques, this investigation systematically examined the spatiotemporal distribution of four ESs across three scales (grid, county, and city) during 2000–2020. Complementary statistical approaches (Spearman’s correlation analysis and bivariate Moran’s I) were integrated to systematically quantify evolving ES trade-off/synergy patterns and reveal their spatial self-correlation characteristics. The geographical detector model (GeoDetector) was used to identify the main driving factors affecting ESs at different scales, and combined with bivariate Moran’s I to further visualize the spatial differentiation patterns of these key drivers. The results indicated that: (1) ESs (except for Water yield) generally increased from coastal regions to inland areas, and their spatial distribution tended to become more clustered as the scale increased. (2) Relationships between ESs became stronger at larger scales across all three study levels. These ESs connections showed stronger links at the middle scale (county). (3) Natural factors had the greatest impact on ESs than anthropogenic factors, with both demonstrating increased explanatory power as the scale enlarges. The interactions between factors of the same type generally yield stronger explanatory power than any single factor alone. (4) The spatial aggregation patterns of ESs with different driving factors varied significantly, while the spatial aggregation patterns of ESs with the same driving factor were highly similar across different spatial scales. These findings confirm that natural and social factors exhibit scale dependency and spatial heterogeneity, emphasizing the need for policies to be tailored to specific scales and adapted to local conditions. It provides a basis for future research on multi-scale and region-specific precision regulation of ecosystems. Full article
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40 pages, 33385 KB  
Review
Artificial Intelligence in Urban Planning: A Bibliometric Analysis and Hotspot Prediction
by Shuyu Si, Yeduozi Yao and Jing Wu
Land 2025, 14(11), 2100; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112100 - 22 Oct 2025
Abstract
The accelerating global urbanization process has posed new challenges to urban planning. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the application of AI in urban planning has gradually emerged as a prominent research focus. This study systematically reviews the current state, [...] Read more.
The accelerating global urbanization process has posed new challenges to urban planning. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the application of AI in urban planning has gradually emerged as a prominent research focus. This study systematically reviews the current state, development trends, and challenges of AI applications in urban planning through a combination of bibliometric analysis using Citespace, AI-assisted reading based on generative models, and predictive analysis via support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. The findings reveal the following: (1) The application of AI in urban planning has undergone three stages—namely, the budding stage (January 1984 to January 2017), the rapid development stage (January 2017 to January 2023), and the explosive growth stage (January 2023 to January 2025). (2) Research hotspots have shifted from early-stage basic data integration and fundamental technology exploration to a continuous fusion and iteration of foundational and emerging technologies. (3) Globally, China, the United States, and India are the leading contributors to research in this field, with inter-country collaborations demonstrating regional clustering. (4) High-frequency keywords such as “deep learning,” “machine learning,” and “smart city” are prevalent in the literature, reflecting the application of AI technologies across both macro and micro urban planning scenarios. (5) Based on current research and predictive analysis, the application scenarios of technologies like deep learning and machine learning are expected to continue expanding. At the same time, emerging technologies, including generative AI and explainable AI, are also projected to become focal points of future research. This study offers a technical application guide for urban planning, promotes the scientific integration of AI technologies within the field, and provides both theoretical support and practical guidance for achieving efficient and sustainable urban development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Innovations – Data and Machine Learning)
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19 pages, 11009 KB  
Article
The Application of CA–MLP–ANN in Assessing Urbanisation in Quaternary Catchment X22J of Mpumalanga, South Africa
by Mary Nkosi and Fhumulani I. Mathivha
Land 2025, 14(11), 2099; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14112099 - 22 Oct 2025
Abstract
Quaternary catchment X22J boasts ecological biodiversity, making ecotourism one of the thriving industries in the catchment. However, recent population growth and the migration from rural areas to urban areas have increased urbanisation. Therefore, this study aimed to assess and predict the trajectory of [...] Read more.
Quaternary catchment X22J boasts ecological biodiversity, making ecotourism one of the thriving industries in the catchment. However, recent population growth and the migration from rural areas to urban areas have increased urbanisation. Therefore, this study aimed to assess and predict the trajectory of urban growth. Through the random forest algorithm in Google Earth Engine, this study analysed urban use in 1990, 2007 and 2024. The classification achieved an overall score of 0.89, 0.96 and 0.91 for 1990, 2007 and 2024, respectively. In addition, the Kappa coefficient varied between 0.85, 0.83 and 0.87 for 1990, 2007 and 2024. The CA–MLP–ANN algorithm was applied for the prediction of 2040 urban changes, leading to the model achieving a score of an overall Kappa coefficient of 0.52 and 74% correctness. Overall, the study predicted an increase of 4.01% in built-up areas from 2024 to 2040, maintaining the increasing trend from 1990. Consequently, a loss of 11% was observed in agricultural lands and a loss of 0.17 in waterbodies by 2040. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis in Dynamic Landscapes)
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