Reliable forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity—particularly rapid intensification (RI) events—remains a major challenge in meteorology, largely due to the inherent difficulty of accurately quantifying predictive uncertainty. Trad...
Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting remains challenging due to the strong nonlinearity of intensity evolution and the rapid structural changes associated with storm development. In this work, we propose TC-QFormer, an interval-based...
Part I of this two-part documentation of the ECMWF ensemble (ECEPS) new tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasting challenges during the 2024 western North Pacific season described four typhoons that started well to the south of an unfavorable...
A pre-operational test started in mid-July 2024 to demonstrate the capability of the ECMWF’s ensemble (ECEPS) to predict western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lifecycle tracks and intensities revealed new forecasting challenges for four...
Tropical cyclones have always been a concern of meteorologists, and there are many studies regarding the axisymmetric structures, dynamic mechanisms, and forecasting techniques from the past 100 years. This research demonstrates the ongoing progress...
The accurate and timely depiction of the state of severe weather is critical for enhancing forecaster situational awareness. This study attempted to develop a hurricane forecasting model with a warm-start run and investigated the impact of winds obse...
Marchok vortex tracker outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble (ECEPS) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction ensemble (GEFS) are utilized to provide the Time-to-Formation (T2F of 25 kt or 35 kt) timing...
Accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity with a sufficient lead time are critical for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, while fundamental to operational forecasting, oft...
When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensi...
This study evaluates the performance of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system during the 2020 North Atlantic (NATL) tropical cyclones (TCs) season. The system is configured to provide 5-day forecasts with basic input from the Natio...
In this study, we evaluated the ability of the Numerical Tools for Hurricane Forecast (NTHF) system, operational at the Department of Meteorology of the Higher Institute of Technologies and Applied Sciences, University of Havana, Cuba, for forecastin...
A minimal modeling system for understanding tropical cyclone intensity and wind structure changes is introduced: Shallow Water Axisymmetric Model for Intensity (SWAMI). The forced, balanced, axisymmetric shallow water equations are reduced to a canon...
Although there has been substantial improvement to numerical weather prediction models, accurate predictions of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remain elusive. The processes that govern RI, such as convection, may be inherently less predi...
This study introduces a physics-based dynamic constraint for the asymptotic allowable mixing length, implemented in the latest upgrade of NOAA’s operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) v2.2. Replacing conventional fixed-value...
This research presents a blended system implemented by the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting to enhance the nowcasting and forecasting services of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) of tropical cyclone (TC) landfal...
Typhoon Lekima (2019) with its heavy rains and floods is an excellent example of the need to provide the earliest possible warnings of the formation, intensification, and subsequent track before a typhoon makes landfall along a densely populated coas...
This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO...
The upper ocean provides a source of thermal energy for tropical cyclone development and maintenance through a series of complex interactions. In this work, we develop a seventeen-year dataset of upper ocean thermal field metrics for use in tropical...
To evaluate tropical cyclone forecasting on synoptic timescale, tracking and intensity are used. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale, what aspects of tropical cyclones should be predicted and how to evaluate forecasting skills still remain ope...
Regarded as one of the most dangerous types of natural disaster, tropical cyclones threaten the life and health of human beings and often cause enormous economic loss. However, intensity forecasting of tropical cyclones, especially rapid intensificat...
An atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled regional model, the UWIN-CM, began its operational trial in real time at the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in the second half of 2024. Its performance in the analysis of three selected tropical cyclones, Sev...
Using ensemble forecast experiments generated by the weather research and forecasting model, the forecast uncertainties of intensity and its rapid intensification (RI) induced by the uncertainty occurring in the boundary layer are investigated for Ty...
Accurate information on tropical cyclone position, intensity, and structure is critical for storm surge prediction. Atmospheric reanalysis datasets can provide gridded, full coverage, long-term and multi-parameter atmospheric fields for the research...
The early stages of a tropical cyclone can be a challenge to forecast, as a storm consolidates and begins to grow based on the local and environmental conditions. A high-resolution ensemble of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is used...
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms o...
Hourly and 15 min GOES-16 and -17 atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are evaluated using the 2020 version of the operational HWRF to assess their impact on tropical cyclone forecasting. The evaluation includes infrared (IR), visible (VIS), shortwave (...
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity observations considerably improve forecast models. They are particularly used to continuously measure TC intensity for landfalling cyclones to improve their forecast. For example, TC Irving, which operated in the Gulf...
Hong Kong was under the direct hit of Severe Typhoon Koinu (2314) on 8 and 9 October 2023, necessitating the issuance of the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9. Koinu was a very challenging case for TC forecasting and warning services due to its...
A tropical depression (TD) formed over the northern part of the South China Sea and affected Hong Kong during 25–26 June 2025. Based on the historical database, there were not many TDs following a similar track in the past, namely, a northwestw...
Knowledge of forest recovery processes after severe disturbances, such as tropical cyclones, is essential for understanding the mechanisms maintaining forest diversity and ecosystem functioning. However, studies examining the impact of tropical cyclo...
This paper presents a re-analysis of the track and the intensity of tropical cyclone Senyar, an unprecedented tropical cyclone that formed over the Strait of Malacca south of 5 degrees North, moving eastwards towards the South China Sea. This cyclone...
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was launched in December 2016. CYGNSS provides ocean surface wind speed retrieval along specular reflection tracks at an interval res...
The concept of thermodynamic efficiency is central to the theoretical understanding of tropical cyclone intensity and intensification, but the issue has remained controversial owing to the existence of distinct and incompatible definitions. Physicall...
Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability o...
Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) from geostationary satellites are a critical observational source for data assimilation, particularly in regions with sparse observations, such as the Southern Hemisphere. This study evaluates the impact of assimilat...
Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of tropical cyclone rainfall is fundamental to enhancing coastal flood defense capabilities. Taking western Guangdong Province as the study case and utilizing hourly rainfall data from 2005 to...
Tropical cyclones pose major risks to life and property, especially as coastal populations grow and climate change increases the likelihood of intense storms, making seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones an important scientific and societal goal....
Tropical cyclones affecting Shenzhen city have shown a remarkable tendency to increase in both intensity and quantity, highlighting the urgency of accurate forecasts of storm surges and flooding for effective planning and mitigation. Utilizing satell...
High frequency aircraft observations from the Government Flying Service of the Hong Kong Government, penetrating a tropical cyclone at low altitude over the South China Sea, were thinned by arithmetic means over different time intervals to identify s...
Accurate estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are important for improving forecasts as well as studying ocean dynamics during such extreme events. Since most cyclone life occurs over the open ocean, remote sensing techniques play an important...
The Micro Unmanned Robot Observation Network (MURON) is a planned in-situ observation network over the surface of West Pacific Ocean, and it is designed to sample high spatial and temporal resolution observations of wind and mass fields over the ocea...
25 August 2023
Intense cyclones with tropical-like characteristics (also known as “medicanes”) occasionally develop in the Mediterranean. They can cause extreme weather phenomena with catastrophic potential due to excessive precipitation, windstorms, an...
Severe Typhoon Danas over the northern part of the South China Sea and seas near Taiwan in early July 2025 had an erratic path that had not been observed before, according to historical data in the region. Its formation, movement, and intensification...
Tropical cyclone (TC) monitoring and forecast in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin remain challenging, notably because of the lack of direct observations. During the 2018–2019 cyclone season, S-1 Sentinel SAR images were acquired, as part of t...
Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (MTLCs), commonly referred to as Medicanes, are high-impact weather systems characterized by complex interactions between baroclinic forcing and tropical-like processes. Despite growing interest, their vertical st...
Vorticity budgets in traditional height or pressure coordinates are commonly examined to help explain how tropical cyclones evolve over time. One disadvantage of using these coordinates is that the vorticity flux due to diabatic heating cannot be eas...
In this study, a tropical cyclone or typhoon rainfall forecast model based on Random Forest is developed to forecast the daily rainfall at 133 weather stations in China. The input factors to the model training process include rainfall observations du...
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can lead to significant social and economic losses, with the fisheries sector being especially vulnerable to their impacts. There is a growing need to develop new methods for impact assessment, especially as regards assessment...
In this study, the general impact of high-resolution moving nesting domains on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and track forecasts was verified, for a total of 107 forecast cases of 33 TCs, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The...
The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and...
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