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Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies
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Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies

A special issue of Energies (ISSN 1996-1073).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2018) | Viewed by 110553

Printed Edition Available!
A printed edition of this Special Issue is available here.

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Wei-Chiang Hong

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Information Management, Asia Eastern University of Science and Technology, Taipei 22064, Taiwan
Interests: short-term load forecasting; intelligent forecasting technologies (e.g., neural networks, knowledge–based expert systems, fuzzy inference systems, evolutionary computation, etc.); hybrid forecasting models (e.g., hybridizing traditional models with intelligent technologies, or hybridizing two or more different models to form a novel forecasting model); novel intelligent methodologies (chaos theory; cloud theory; quantum theory)
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Ming-Wei Li

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
College of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Guo-Feng Fan

E-Mail
Guest Editor
College of Mathematics & Statistics, Pingdingshan University, Henan 467000, China

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In last few decades, short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been one of the most important research issues for the achievement of higher efficiency and reliability in power system operation, to facilitate the minimization of its operation cost by providing accurate input to day-ahead scheduling, contingency analysis, load flow analysis, planning, and maintenance of power systems. There are many forecasting models proposed for STLF, including traditional statistical models (such as ARIMA, SARIMA, ARMAX, multi-variate regression, Kalman filter, exponential smoothing, and so on) and artificial-intelligence-based models (e.g., artificial neural networks (ANNs), knowledge-based expert systems, fuzzy theory and fuzzy inference systems, evolutionary computation models, support vector regression, etc.).

Recently, due to the great development of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) and novel computing concepts (e.g., quantum computing concepts, chaotic mapping functions, cloud mapping process, etc.), many advanced hybrids with those artificial-intelligence-based models are also proposed to achieve a sufficiently accurate forecasting level. In addition, combining some superior mechanism with an existing model could empower this model to solve problems it could not deal with before; for example, the seasonal mechanism from the ARIMA model is a good component to be combined with any forecasting model to help them to deal with seasonal problems.

The research tedencies and development of STLF have demonstrated rich and diverse prospects, deserving of further exploration of this important issue.

All submissions should be based on the rigorous motivation of the mentioned approaches, and all the developed models should also be with a corresponding theoretically sound framework; submissions lacking such a scientific approach are discouraged. Validation of existing/presented approaches is encouraged to be done using real practical applications.

Prof. Dr. Wei-Chiang Hong
Dr. Ming-Wei Li
Dr. Guo-Feng Fan
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Energies is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Short term load forecasting
  • Statistical forecasting models (ARIMA; SARIMA; ARMAX; multi-variate regression; Kalman filter; exponential smoothing; and so on)
  • Artificial neural networks (ANNs)
  • Knowledge-based expert systems
  • Fuzzy theory and fuzzy inference systems
  • Evolutionary computation models
  • Evolutionary algorithms
  • Support vector regression (SVR)
  • Hybrid models
  • Combined models
  • Seasonal mechanism (Single seasonal mechanism; Multiple seasonal mechanism)
  • Novel intelligent technologies (Chaos theory; Cloud theory; Quantum theory)

Published Papers (22 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 1408 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Load Forecasting in Smart Grids: An Intelligent Modular Approach
by Ashfaq Ahmad, Nadeem Javaid, Abdul Mateen, Muhammad Awais and Zahoor Ali Khan
Energies 2019, 12(1), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12010164 - 04 Jan 2019
Cited by 88 | Viewed by 7346
Abstract
Daily operations and planning in a smart grid require a day-ahead load forecasting of its customers. The accuracy of day-ahead load-forecasting models has a significant impact on many decisions such as scheduling of fuel purchases, system security assessment, economic scheduling of generating capacity, [...] Read more.
Daily operations and planning in a smart grid require a day-ahead load forecasting of its customers. The accuracy of day-ahead load-forecasting models has a significant impact on many decisions such as scheduling of fuel purchases, system security assessment, economic scheduling of generating capacity, and planning for energy transactions. However, day-ahead load forecasting is a challenging task due to its dependence on external factors such as meteorological and exogenous variables. Furthermore, the existing day-ahead load-forecasting models enhance forecast accuracy by paying the cost of increased execution time. Aiming at improving the forecast accuracy while not paying the increased executions time cost, a hybrid artificial neural network-based day-ahead load-forecasting model for smart grids is proposed in this paper. The proposed forecasting model comprises three modules: (i) a pre-processing module; (ii) a forecast module; and (iii) an optimization module. In the first module, correlated lagged load data along with influential meteorological and exogenous variables are fed as inputs to a feature selection technique which removes irrelevant and/or redundant samples from the inputs. In the second module, a sigmoid function (activation) and a multivariate auto regressive algorithm (training) in the artificial neural network are used. The third module uses a heuristics-based optimization technique to minimize the forecast error. In the third module, our modified version of an enhanced differential evolution algorithm is used. The proposed method is validated via simulations where it is tested on the datasets of DAYTOWN (Ohio, USA) and EKPC (Kentucky, USA). In comparison to two existing day-ahead load-forecasting models, results show improved performance of the proposed model in terms of accuracy, execution time, and scalability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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16 pages, 7272 KiB  
Article
Impacts of Load Profiles on the Optimization of Power Management of a Green Building Employing Fuel Cells
by Fu-Cheng Wang and Kuang-Ming Lin
Energies 2019, 12(1), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12010057 - 25 Dec 2018
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 2934
Abstract
This paper discusses the performance improvement of a green building by optimization procedures and the influences of load characteristics on optimization. The green building is equipped with a self-sustained hybrid power system consisting of solar cells, wind turbines, batteries, proton exchange membrane fuel [...] Read more.
This paper discusses the performance improvement of a green building by optimization procedures and the influences of load characteristics on optimization. The green building is equipped with a self-sustained hybrid power system consisting of solar cells, wind turbines, batteries, proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), electrolyzer, and power electronic devices. We develop a simulation model using the Matlab/SimPowerSystemTM and tune the model parameters based on experimental responses, so that we can predict and analyze system responses without conducting extensive experiments. Three performance indexes are then defined to optimize the design of the hybrid system for three typical load profiles: the household, the laboratory, and the office loads. The results indicate that the total system cost was reduced by 38.9%, 40% and 28.6% for the household, laboratory and office loads, respectively, while the system reliability was improved by 4.89%, 24.42% and 5.08%. That is, the component sizes and power management strategies could greatly improve system cost and reliability, while the performance improvement can be greatly influenced by the characteristics of the load profiles. A safety index is applied to evaluate the sustainability of the hybrid power system under extreme weather conditions. We further discuss two methods for improving the system safety: the use of sub-optimal settings or the additional chemical hydride. Adding 20 kg of NaBH4 can provide 63 kWh and increase system safety by 3.33, 2.10, and 2.90 days for the household, laboratory and office loads, respectively. In future, the proposed method can be applied to explore the potential benefits when constructing customized hybrid power systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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21 pages, 4526 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach
by Habeebur Rahman, Iniyan Selvarasan and Jahitha Begum A
Energies 2018, 11(12), 3442; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11123442 - 09 Dec 2018
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 4076
Abstract
Continual energy availability is one of the prime inputs requisite for the persistent growth of any country. This becomes even more important for a country like India, which is one of the rapidly developing economies. Therefore electrical energy’s short-term demand forecasting is an [...] Read more.
Continual energy availability is one of the prime inputs requisite for the persistent growth of any country. This becomes even more important for a country like India, which is one of the rapidly developing economies. Therefore electrical energy’s short-term demand forecasting is an essential step in the process of energy planning. The intent of this article is to predict the Total Electricity Consumption (TEC) in industry, agriculture, domestic, commercial, traction railways and other sectors of India for 2030. The methodology includes the familiar black-box approaches for forecasting namely multiple linear regression (MLR), simple regression model (SRM) along with correlation, exponential smoothing, Holt’s, Brown’s and expert model with the input variables population, GDP and GDP per capita using the software used are IBM SPSS Statistics 20 and Microsoft Excel 1997–2003 Worksheet. The input factors namely GDP, population and GDP per capita were taken into consideration. Analyses were also carried out to find the important variables influencing the energy consumption pattern. Several models such as Brown’s model, Holt’s model, Expert model and damped trend model were analysed. The TEC for the years 2019, 2024 and 2030 were forecasted to be 1,162,453 MW, 1,442,410 MW and 1,778,358 MW respectively. When compared with Population, GDP per capita, it is concluded that GDP foresees TEC better. The forecasting of total electricity consumption for the year 2030–2031 for India is found to be 1834349 MW. Therefore energy planning of a country relies heavily upon precise proper demand forecasting. Precise forecasting is one of the major challenges to manage in the energy sector of any nation. Moreover forecasts are important for the effective formulation of energy laws and policies in order to conserve the natural resources, protect the ecosystem, promote the nation’s economy and protect the health and safety of the society. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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17 pages, 1517 KiB  
Article
Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting
by Seon Hyeog Kim, Gyul Lee, Gu-Young Kwon, Do-In Kim and Yong-June Shin
Energies 2018, 11(12), 3433; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11123433 - 07 Dec 2018
Cited by 33 | Viewed by 4921
Abstract
Load forecasting is a key issue for efficient real-time energy management in smart grids. To control the load using demand side management accurately, load forecasting should be predicted in the short term. With the advent of advanced measuring infrastructure, it is possible to [...] Read more.
Load forecasting is a key issue for efficient real-time energy management in smart grids. To control the load using demand side management accurately, load forecasting should be predicted in the short term. With the advent of advanced measuring infrastructure, it is possible to measure energy consumption at sampling rates up to every 5 min and analyze the load profile of small-scale energy groups, such as individual buildings. This paper presents applications of deep learning using feature decomposition for improving the accuracy of load forecasting. The load profile is decomposed into a weekly load profile and then decomposed into intrinsic mode functions by variational mode decomposition to capture periodic features. Then, a long short-term memory network model is trained by three-dimensional input data with three-step regularization. Finally, the prediction results of all intrinsic mode functions are combined with advanced measuring infrastructure measured in the previous steps to determine an aggregated output for load forecasting. The results are validated by applications to real-world data from smart buildings, and the performance of the proposed approach is assessed by comparing the predicted results with those of conventional methods, nonlinear autoregressive networks with exogenous inputs, and long short-term memory network-based feature decomposition. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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20 pages, 4577 KiB  
Article
Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Scheme Using Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron
by Jihoon Moon, Yongsung Kim, Minjae Son and Eenjun Hwang
Energies 2018, 11(12), 3283; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11123283 - 25 Nov 2018
Cited by 106 | Viewed by 5992
Abstract
A stable power supply is very important in the management of power infrastructure. One of the critical tasks in accomplishing this is to predict power consumption accurately, which usually requires considering diverse factors, including environmental, social, and spatial-temporal factors. Depending on the prediction [...] Read more.
A stable power supply is very important in the management of power infrastructure. One of the critical tasks in accomplishing this is to predict power consumption accurately, which usually requires considering diverse factors, including environmental, social, and spatial-temporal factors. Depending on the prediction scope, building type can also be an important factor since the same types of buildings show similar power consumption patterns. A university campus usually consists of several building types, including a laboratory, administrative office, lecture room, and dormitory. Depending on the temporal and external conditions, they tend to show a wide variation in the electrical load pattern. This paper proposes a hybrid short-term load forecast model for an educational building complex by using random forest and multilayer perceptron. To construct this model, we collect electrical load data of six years from a university campus and split them into training, validation, and test sets. For the training set, we classify the data using a decision tree with input parameters including date, day of the week, holiday, and academic year. In addition, we consider various configurations for random forest and multilayer perceptron and evaluate their prediction performance using the validation set to determine the optimal configuration. Then, we construct a hybrid short-term load forecast model by combining the two models and predict the daily electrical load for the test set. Through various experiments, we show that our hybrid forecast model performs better than other popular single forecast models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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22 pages, 1980 KiB  
Article
Hybridizing Chaotic and Quantum Mechanisms and Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm with Least Squares Support Vector Regression Model in Electric Load Forecasting
by Ming-Wei Li, Jing Geng, Wei-Chiang Hong and Yang Zhang
Energies 2018, 11(9), 2226; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11092226 - 24 Aug 2018
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3195
Abstract
Compared with a large power grid, a microgrid electric load (MEL) has the characteristics of strong nonlinearity, multiple factors, and large fluctuation, which lead to it being difficult to receive more accurate forecasting performances. To solve the abovementioned characteristics of a MEL time [...] Read more.
Compared with a large power grid, a microgrid electric load (MEL) has the characteristics of strong nonlinearity, multiple factors, and large fluctuation, which lead to it being difficult to receive more accurate forecasting performances. To solve the abovementioned characteristics of a MEL time series, the least squares support vector machine (LS-SVR) hybridizing with meta-heuristic algorithms is applied to simulate the nonlinear system of a MEL time series. As it is known that the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) has several embedded drawbacks that lead to problems, this paper applies a quantum computing mechanism (QCM) to empower each fruit fly to possess quantum behavior during the searching processes, i.e., a QFOA algorithm. Eventually, the cat chaotic mapping function is introduced into the QFOA algorithm, namely CQFOA, to implement the chaotic global perturbation strategy to help fruit flies to escape from the local optima while the population’s diversity is poor. Finally, a new MEL forecasting method, namely the LS-SVR-CQFOA model, is established by hybridizing the LS-SVR model with CQFOA. The experimental results illustrate that, in three datasets, the proposed LS-SVR-CQFOA model is superior to other alternative models, including BPNN (back-propagation neural networks), LS-SVR-CQPSO (LS-SVR with chaotic quantum particle swarm optimization algorithm), LS-SVR-CQTS (LS-SVR with chaotic quantum tabu search algorithm), LS-SVR-CQGA (LS-SVR with chaotic quantum genetic algorithm), LS-SVR-CQBA (LS-SVR with chaotic quantum bat algorithm), LS-SVR-FOA, and LS-SVR-QFOA models, in terms of forecasting accuracy indexes. In addition, it passes the significance test at a 97.5% confidence level. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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19 pages, 2425 KiB  
Article
Empirical Comparison of Neural Network and Auto-Regressive Models in Short-Term Load Forecasting
by Miguel López, Carlos Sans, Sergio Valero and Carolina Senabre
Energies 2018, 11(8), 2080; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11082080 - 10 Aug 2018
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3372
Abstract
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been widely used in Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) in the last 20 years and it has partly displaced older time-series and statistical methods to a second row. However, the STLF problem is very particular and specific to each case [...] Read more.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been widely used in Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) in the last 20 years and it has partly displaced older time-series and statistical methods to a second row. However, the STLF problem is very particular and specific to each case and, while there are many papers about AI applications, there is little research determining which features of an STLF system is better suited for a specific data set. In many occasions both classical and modern methods coexist, providing combined forecasts that outperform the individual ones. This paper presents a thorough empirical comparison between Neural Networks (NN) and Autoregressive (AR) models as forecasting engines. The objective of this paper is to determine the circumstances under which each model shows a better performance. It analyzes one of the models currently in use at the National Transport System Operator in Spain, Red Eléctrica de España (REE), which combines both techniques. The parameters that are tested are the availability of historical data, the treatment of exogenous variables, the training frequency and the configuration of the model. The performance of each model is measured as RMSE over a one-year period and analyzed under several factors like special days or extreme temperatures. The AR model has 0.13% lower error than the NN under ideal conditions. However, the NN model performs more accurately under certain stress situations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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22 pages, 1697 KiB  
Article
Load Forecasting for a Campus University Using Ensemble Methods Based on Regression Trees
by María Del Carmen Ruiz-Abellón, Antonio Gabaldón and Antonio Guillamón
Energies 2018, 11(8), 2038; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11082038 - 06 Aug 2018
Cited by 41 | Viewed by 4349
Abstract
Load forecasting models are of great importance in Electricity Markets and a wide range of techniques have been developed according to the objective being pursued. The increase of smart meters in different sectors (residential, commercial, universities, etc.) allows accessing the electricity consumption nearly [...] Read more.
Load forecasting models are of great importance in Electricity Markets and a wide range of techniques have been developed according to the objective being pursued. The increase of smart meters in different sectors (residential, commercial, universities, etc.) allows accessing the electricity consumption nearly in real time and provides those customers with large datasets that contain valuable information. In this context, supervised machine learning methods play an essential role. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the effectiveness of using ensemble methods based on regression trees in short-term load forecasting. To illustrate this task, four methods (bagging, random forest, conditional forest, and boosting) are applied to historical load data of a campus university in Cartagena (Spain). In addition to temperature, calendar variables as well as different types of special days are considered as predictors to improve the predictions. Finally, a real application to the Spanish Electricity Market is developed: 48-h-ahead predictions are used to evaluate the economical savings that the consumer (the campus university) can obtain through the participation as a direct market consumer instead of purchasing the electricity from a retailer. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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12 pages, 1523 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression †
by Gregory D. Merkel, Richard J. Povinelli and Ronald H. Brown
Energies 2018, 11(8), 2008; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11082008 - 02 Aug 2018
Cited by 64 | Viewed by 5528
Abstract
Deep neural networks are proposed for short-term natural gas load forecasting. Deep learning has proven to be a powerful tool for many classification problems seeing significant use in machine learning fields such as image recognition and speech processing. We provide an overview of [...] Read more.
Deep neural networks are proposed for short-term natural gas load forecasting. Deep learning has proven to be a powerful tool for many classification problems seeing significant use in machine learning fields such as image recognition and speech processing. We provide an overview of natural gas forecasting. Next, the deep learning method, contrastive divergence is explained. We compare our proposed deep neural network method to a linear regression model and a traditional artificial neural network on 62 operating areas, each of which has at least 10 years of data. The proposed deep network outperforms traditional artificial neural networks by 9.83% weighted mean absolute percent error (WMAPE). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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19 pages, 4722 KiB  
Article
The Optimization of Hybrid Power Systems with Renewable Energy and Hydrogen Generation
by Fu-Cheng Wang, Yi-Shao Hsiao and Yi-Zhe Yang
Energies 2018, 11(8), 1948; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11081948 - 26 Jul 2018
Cited by 27 | Viewed by 5347
Abstract
This paper discusses the optimization of hybrid power systems, which consist of solar cells, wind turbines, fuel cells, hydrogen electrolysis, chemical hydrogen generation, and batteries. Because hybrid power systems have multiple energy sources and utilize different types of storage, we first developed a [...] Read more.
This paper discusses the optimization of hybrid power systems, which consist of solar cells, wind turbines, fuel cells, hydrogen electrolysis, chemical hydrogen generation, and batteries. Because hybrid power systems have multiple energy sources and utilize different types of storage, we first developed a general hybrid power model using the Matlab/SimPowerSystemTM, and then tuned model parameters based on the experimental results. This model was subsequently applied to predict the responses of four different hybrid power systems for three typical loads, without conducting individual experiments. Furthermore, cost and reliability indexes were defined to evaluate system performance and to derive optimal system layouts. Finally, the impacts of hydrogen costs on system optimization was discussed. In the future, the developed method could be applied to design customized hybrid power systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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18 pages, 2319 KiB  
Article
Uncertainty Analysis of Weather Forecast Data for Cooling Load Forecasting Based on the Monte Carlo Method
by Jing Zhao, Yaoqi Duan and Xiaojuan Liu
Energies 2018, 11(7), 1900; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071900 - 20 Jul 2018
Cited by 30 | Viewed by 4244
Abstract
Recently, the cooling load forecasting for the short-term has received increasing attention in the field of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), which is conducive to the HVAC system operation control. The load forecasting based on weather forecast data is an effective approach. [...] Read more.
Recently, the cooling load forecasting for the short-term has received increasing attention in the field of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), which is conducive to the HVAC system operation control. The load forecasting based on weather forecast data is an effective approach. The meteorological parameters are used as the key inputs of the prediction model, of which the accuracy has a great influence on the prediction loads. Obviously, there are errors between the weather forecast data and the actual weather data, but most of the existing studies ignored this issue. In order to deal with the uncertainty of weather forecast data scientifically, this paper proposes an effective approach based on the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) to process weather forecast data by using the 24-h-ahead Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for load prediction as an example. The data-preprocessing method based on MCM makes the forecasting results closer to the actual load than those without process, which reduces the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of load prediction from 11.54% to 10.92%. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, it was found that among the selected weather parameters, the factor that had the greatest impact on the prediction results was the 1-h-ahead temperature T(h–1) at the prediction moment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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22 pages, 1063 KiB  
Article
Scalable Clustering of Individual Electrical Curves for Profiling and Bottom-Up Forecasting
by Benjamin Auder, Jairo Cugliari, Yannig Goude and Jean-Michel Poggi
Energies 2018, 11(7), 1893; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071893 - 20 Jul 2018
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 3492
Abstract
Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The first section is dedicated to the [...] Read more.
Smart grids require flexible data driven forecasting methods. We propose clustering tools for bottom-up short-term load forecasting. We focus on individual consumption data analysis which plays a major role for energy management and electricity load forecasting. The first section is dedicated to the industrial context and a review of individual electrical data analysis. Then, we focus on hierarchical time-series for bottom-up forecasting. The idea is to decompose the global signal and obtain disaggregated forecasts in such a way that their sum enhances the prediction. This is done in three steps: identify a rather large number of super-consumers by clustering their energy profiles, generate a hierarchy of nested partitions and choose the one that minimize a prediction criterion. Using a nonparametric model to handle forecasting, and wavelets to define various notions of similarity between load curves, this disaggregation strategy gives a 16% improvement in forecasting accuracy when applied to French individual consumers. Then, this strategy is implemented using R—the free software environment for statistical computing—so that it can scale when dealing with massive datasets. The proposed solution is to make the algorithm scalable combine data storage, parallel computing and double clustering step to define the super-consumers. The resulting software is openly available. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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16 pages, 1967 KiB  
Article
Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data
by Magnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Oliver S. Kirsebom and Gorm B. Andresen
Energies 2018, 11(7), 1678; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071678 - 27 Jun 2018
Cited by 53 | Viewed by 3792
Abstract
The heat load in district heating systems is affected by the weather and by human behavior, and special consumption patterns are observed around holidays. This study employs a top-down approach to heat load forecasting using meteorological data and new untraditional data types such [...] Read more.
The heat load in district heating systems is affected by the weather and by human behavior, and special consumption patterns are observed around holidays. This study employs a top-down approach to heat load forecasting using meteorological data and new untraditional data types such as school holidays. Three different machine learning models are benchmarked for forecasting the aggregated heat load of the large district heating system of Aarhus, Denmark. The models are trained on six years of measured hourly heat load data and a blind year of test data is withheld until the final testing of the forecasting capabilities of the models. In this final test, weather forecasts from the Danish Meteorological Institute are used to measure the performance of the heat load forecasts under realistic operational conditions. We demonstrate models with forecasting performance that can match state-of-the-art commercial software and explore the benefit of including local holiday data to improve forecasting accuracy. The best forecasting performance is achieved with a support vector regression on weather, calendar, and holiday data, yielding a mean absolute percentage error of 6.4% on the 15–38 h horizon. On average, the forecasts could be improved slightly by including local holiday data. On holidays, this performance improvement was more significant. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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21 pages, 3269 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Forecasting for Energy Consumption through Stacking Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning Model
by Mergani A. Khairalla, Xu Ning, Nashat T. AL-Jallad and Musaab O. El-Faroug
Energies 2018, 11(6), 1605; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11061605 - 19 Jun 2018
Cited by 61 | Viewed by 6360
Abstract
In the real-life, time-series data comprise a complicated pattern, hence it may be challenging to increase prediction accuracy rates by using machine learning and conventional statistical methods as single learners. This research outlines and investigates the Stacking Multi-Learning Ensemble (SMLE) model for time [...] Read more.
In the real-life, time-series data comprise a complicated pattern, hence it may be challenging to increase prediction accuracy rates by using machine learning and conventional statistical methods as single learners. This research outlines and investigates the Stacking Multi-Learning Ensemble (SMLE) model for time series prediction problem over various horizons with a focus on the forecasts accuracy, directions hit-rate, and the average growth rate of total oil demand. This investigation presents a flexible ensemble framework in light of blend heterogeneous models for demonstrating and forecasting nonlinear time series. The proposed SMLE model combines support vector regression (SVR), backpropagation neural network (BPNN), and linear regression (LR) learners, the ensemble architecture consists of four phases: generation, pruning, integration, and ensemble prediction task. We have conducted an empirical study to evaluate and compare the performance of SMLE using Global Oil Consumption (GOC). Thus, the assessment of the proposed model was conducted at single and multistep horizon prediction using unique benchmark techniques. The final results reveal that the proposed SMLE model outperforms all the other benchmark methods listed in this study at various levels such as error rate, similarity, and directional accuracy by 0.74%, 0.020%, and 91.24%, respectively. Therefore, this study demonstrates that the ensemble model is an extremely encouraging methodology for complex time series forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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30 pages, 5251 KiB  
Article
A Novel Hybrid Interval Prediction Approach Based on Modified Lower Upper Bound Estimation in Combination with Multi-Objective Salp Swarm Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting
by Jiyang Wang, Yuyang Gao and Xuejun Chen
Energies 2018, 11(6), 1561; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11061561 - 14 Jun 2018
Cited by 64 | Viewed by 3804
Abstract
Effective and reliable load forecasting is an important basis for power system planning and operation decisions. Its forecasting accuracy directly affects the safety and economy of the operation of the power system. However, attaining the desired point forecasting accuracy has been regarded as [...] Read more.
Effective and reliable load forecasting is an important basis for power system planning and operation decisions. Its forecasting accuracy directly affects the safety and economy of the operation of the power system. However, attaining the desired point forecasting accuracy has been regarded as a challenge because of the intrinsic complexity and instability of the power load. Considering the difficulties of accurate point forecasting, interval prediction is able to tolerate increased uncertainty and provide more information for practical operation decisions. In this study, a novel hybrid system for short-term load forecasting (STLF) is proposed by integrating a data preprocessing module, a multi-objective optimization module, and an interval prediction module. In this system, the training process is performed by maximizing the coverage probability and by minimizing the forecasting interval width at the same time. To verify the performance of the proposed hybrid system, half-hourly load data are set as illustrative cases and two experiments are carried out in four states with four quarters in Australia. The simulation results verified the superiority of the proposed technique and the effects of the submodules were analyzed by comparing the outcomes with those of benchmark models. Furthermore, it is proved that the proposed hybrid system is valuable in improving power grid management. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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18 pages, 5019 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Bus Charging Stations Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Wolf Pack Algorithm
by Xing Zhang
Energies 2018, 11(6), 1449; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11061449 - 04 Jun 2018
Cited by 39 | Viewed by 3287
Abstract
Accurate short-term load forecasting is of momentous significance to ensure safe and economic operation of quick-change electric bus (e-bus) charging stations. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of load prediction, this paper proposes a hybrid model that combines fuzzy clustering (FC), [...] Read more.
Accurate short-term load forecasting is of momentous significance to ensure safe and economic operation of quick-change electric bus (e-bus) charging stations. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of load prediction, this paper proposes a hybrid model that combines fuzzy clustering (FC), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and wolf pack algorithm (WPA). On the basis of load characteristics analysis for e-bus charging stations, FC is adopted to extract samples on similar days, which can not only avoid the blindness of selecting similar days by experience, but can also overcome the adverse effects of unconventional load data caused by a sudden change of factors on training. Then, WPA with good global convergence and computational robustness is employed to optimize the parameters of LSSVM. Thus, a novel hybrid load forecasting model for quick-change e-bus charging stations is built, namely FC-WPA-LSSVM. To verify the developed model, two case studies are used for model construction and testing. The simulation test results prove that the proposed model can obtain high prediction accuracy and ideal stability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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18 pages, 5878 KiB  
Article
A Hybrid BA-ELM Model Based on Factor Analysis and Similar-Day Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting
by Wei Sun and Chongchong Zhang
Energies 2018, 11(5), 1282; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11051282 - 17 May 2018
Cited by 22 | Viewed by 3424
Abstract
Accurate power-load forecasting for the safe and stable operation of a power system is of great significance. However, the random non-stationary electric-load time series which is affected by many factors hinders the improvement of prediction accuracy. In light of this, this paper innovatively [...] Read more.
Accurate power-load forecasting for the safe and stable operation of a power system is of great significance. However, the random non-stationary electric-load time series which is affected by many factors hinders the improvement of prediction accuracy. In light of this, this paper innovatively combines factor analysis and similar-day thinking into a prediction model for short-term load forecasting. After factor analysis, the latent factors that affect load essentially are extracted from an original 22 influence factors. Then, considering the contribution rate of history load data, partial auto correlation function (PACF) is employed to further analyse the impact effect. In addition, ant colony clustering (ACC) is adopted to excavate the similar days that have common factors with the forecast day. Finally, an extreme learning machine (ELM), whose input weights and bias threshold are optimized by a bat algorithm (BA), hereafter referred as BA-ELM, is established to predict the electric load. A simulation experience using data deriving from Yangquan City shows its effectiveness and applicability, and the result demonstrates that the hybrid model can meet the needs of short-term electric load prediction. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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18 pages, 3690 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Niche Immunity Lion Algorithm and Convolutional Neural Network
by Yunyan Li, Yuansheng Huang and Meimei Zhang
Energies 2018, 11(5), 1253; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11051253 - 14 May 2018
Cited by 72 | Viewed by 5429
Abstract
Accurate and stable prediction of short-term load for electric vehicle charging stations is of great significance in ensuring economical and safe operation of electric vehicle charging stations and power grids. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of short-term load forecasting for [...] Read more.
Accurate and stable prediction of short-term load for electric vehicle charging stations is of great significance in ensuring economical and safe operation of electric vehicle charging stations and power grids. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of short-term load forecasting for electric vehicle charging stations, an innovative prediction model based on a convolutional neural network and lion algorithm, improved by niche immunity, is proposed. Firstly, niche immunity is utilized to restrict over duplication of similar individuals, so as to ensure population diversity of lion algorithm, which improves the optimization performance of the lion algorithm significantly. The lion algorithm is then employed to search the optimal weights and thresholds of the convolutional neural network. Finally, a proposed short-term load forecasting method is established. After analyzing the load characteristics of the electric vehicle charging station, two cases in different locations and different months are selected to validate the proposed model. The results indicate that the new hybrid proposed model offers better accuracy, robustness, and generality in short-term load forecasting for electric vehicle charging stations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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19 pages, 2755 KiB  
Article
Short-Term Load Forecasting with Multi-Source Data Using Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Networks
by Yixing Wang, Meiqin Liu, Zhejing Bao and Senlin Zhang
Energies 2018, 11(5), 1138; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11051138 - 03 May 2018
Cited by 69 | Viewed by 4643
Abstract
Short-term load forecasting is an important task for the planning and reliable operation of power grids. High-accuracy forecasting for individual customers helps to make arrangements for generation and reduce electricity costs. Artificial intelligent methods have been applied to short-term load forecasting in past [...] Read more.
Short-term load forecasting is an important task for the planning and reliable operation of power grids. High-accuracy forecasting for individual customers helps to make arrangements for generation and reduce electricity costs. Artificial intelligent methods have been applied to short-term load forecasting in past research, but most did not consider electricity use characteristics, efficiency, and more influential factors. In this paper, a method for short-term load forecasting with multi-source data using gated recurrent unit neural networks is proposed. The load data of customers are preprocessed by clustering to reduce the interference of electricity use characteristics. The environmental factors including date, weather and temperature are quantified to extend the input of the whole network so that multi-source information is considered. Gated recurrent unit neural networks are used for extracting temporal features with simpler architecture and less convergence time in the hidden layers. The detailed results of the real-world experiments are shown by the forecasting curve and mean absolute percentage error to prove the availability and superiority of the proposed method compared to the current forecasting methods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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21 pages, 5727 KiB  
Article
A Hybrid Seasonal Mechanism with a Chaotic Cuckoo Search Algorithm with a Support Vector Regression Model for Electric Load Forecasting
by Yongquan Dong, Zichen Zhang and Wei-Chiang Hong
Energies 2018, 11(4), 1009; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11041009 - 20 Apr 2018
Cited by 118 | Viewed by 5905
Abstract
Providing accurate electric load forecasting results plays a crucial role in daily energy management of the power supply system. Due to superior forecasting performance, the hybridizing support vector regression (SVR) model with evolutionary algorithms has received attention and deserves to continue being explored [...] Read more.
Providing accurate electric load forecasting results plays a crucial role in daily energy management of the power supply system. Due to superior forecasting performance, the hybridizing support vector regression (SVR) model with evolutionary algorithms has received attention and deserves to continue being explored widely. The cuckoo search (CS) algorithm has the potential to contribute more satisfactory electric load forecasting results. However, the original CS algorithm suffers from its inherent drawbacks, such as parameters that require accurate setting, loss of population diversity, and easy trapping in local optima (i.e., premature convergence). Therefore, proposing some critical improvement mechanisms and employing an improved CS algorithm to determine suitable parameter combinations for an SVR model is essential. This paper proposes the SVR with chaotic cuckoo search (SVRCCS) model based on using a tent chaotic mapping function to enrich the cuckoo search space and diversify the population to avoid trapping in local optima. In addition, to deal with the cyclic nature of electric loads, a seasonal mechanism is combined with the SVRCCS model, namely giving a seasonal SVR with chaotic cuckoo search (SSVRCCS) model, to produce more accurate forecasting performances. The numerical results, tested by using the datasets from the National Electricity Market (NEM, Queensland, Australia) and the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO, NY, USA), show that the proposed SSVRCCS model outperforms other alternative models. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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26 pages, 2475 KiB  
Article
Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction
by Chengdong Li, Zixiang Ding, Jianqiang Yi, Yisheng Lv and Guiqing Zhang
Energies 2018, 11(1), 242; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11010242 - 19 Jan 2018
Cited by 54 | Viewed by 5888
Abstract
To enhance the prediction performance for building energy consumption, this paper presents a modified deep belief network (DBN) based hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model combines the outputs from the DBN model with the energy-consuming pattern to yield the final prediction results. The [...] Read more.
To enhance the prediction performance for building energy consumption, this paper presents a modified deep belief network (DBN) based hybrid model. The proposed hybrid model combines the outputs from the DBN model with the energy-consuming pattern to yield the final prediction results. The energy-consuming pattern in this study represents the periodicity property of building energy consumption and can be extracted from the observed historical energy consumption data. The residual data generated by removing the energy-consuming pattern from the original data are utilized to train the modified DBN model. The training of the modified DBN includes two steps, the first one of which adopts the contrastive divergence (CD) algorithm to optimize the hidden parameters in a pre-train way, while the second one determines the output weighting vector by the least squares method. The proposed hybrid model is applied to two kinds of building energy consumption data sets that have different energy-consuming patterns (daily-periodicity and weekly-periodicity). In order to examine the advantages of the proposed model, four popular artificial intelligence methods—the backward propagation neural network (BPNN), the generalized radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN), the extreme learning machine (ELM), and the support vector regressor (SVR) are chosen as the comparative approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed DBN based hybrid model has the best performance compared with the comparative techniques. Another thing to be mentioned is that all the predictors constructed by utilizing the energy-consuming patterns perform better than those designed only by the original data. This verifies the usefulness of the incorporation of the energy-consuming patterns. The proposed approach can also be extended and applied to some other similar prediction problems that have periodicity patterns, e.g., the traffic flow forecasting and the electricity consumption prediction. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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13 pages, 6679 KiB  
Article
A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting
by Ping-Huan Kuo and Chiou-Jye Huang
Energies 2018, 11(1), 213; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11010213 - 16 Jan 2018
Cited by 258 | Viewed by 11171
Abstract
One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis [...] Read more.
One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis and linear regression. Since the load forecast focuses on aggregated electricity consumption patterns, researchers have recently integrated deep learning approaches with machine learning techniques. In this study, an accurate deep neural network algorithm for short-term load forecasting (STLF) is introduced. The forecasting performance of proposed algorithm is compared with performances of five artificial intelligence algorithms that are commonly used in load forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE) are used as accuracy evaluation indexes. The experiment results show that MAPE and CV-RMSE of proposed algorithm are 9.77% and 11.66%, respectively, displaying very high forecasting accuracy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies)
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